[经济金融] 中国股市投资狂热的风险

日月光

时代周刊% f- z; s( R4 ~& `

: f; w2 J' m3 h中国的上海及深圳股市投资者狂热洒钱，引发中国公司抢着上市。根据顾问公司Pricewaterhouse Coopers的估计，今年在这两大股市的上市公司将可筹到五百二十亿美元的资金。' I) a4 x% S& W) _8 ^; L9 F3 s! s

" u4 L4 J  i1 C+ t报导指出，照目前的发展来看，有可能今年这两大股市的新上市公司发行股票的筹资，将会超过去年世界各地任何一个主要股市新上市公司筹得的资金。
1 _3 ~0 v# V+ Z" y1 w
) L8 x8 |% w/ N+ b( b1 w8 k许多分析家认为，中国股市投资狂热使股价飙涨的情况，和几年前那斯达克科技股的飙涨类似，而这种典型的过度高估难免有泡沫化的风险。美国新上市公司筹资纪录就是在科技股狂飙的一九九九年所创，总计有六百三十一亿美元。人在德国 社区. W8 S. m4 }. {& [$ R4 g
. j- h  E3 M( y* z
不同的是，当年在那斯达克飙涨的股票是一些小型新成立科技公司，而目前在中国股市上市吸金的却多半是大型的国营企业，包括石油及天然气、矿冶及金融机构。这些大企业多半已在香港挂牌，在上海及深圳上市为的是吸引只能用人民币投资Ａ股的中国投资人。7 p. q5 V  i- N$ F8 z# E( O" b2 I
人在德国 社区# T0 \  c5 z& }/ c$ q+ {
报导指出，中国的经济学者估计，中国大陆民间储蓄在三十兆到四十兆人民币之间，因为银行利息不高，许多中国老百姓希望能找到获利较好的投资机会。1 q: x' E8 {& e5 I  w

" I; ~. }/ q( F经济学者们相信中国政府也鼓励在香港上市的公司能在中国大陆的股市挂牌，虽然中国大陆股市的管理还未尽周全。他们也认为，中国大陆股市虽然吸引大量投资，仍不至于取代香港这个国际市场。" f9 E9 x& ?  O5 S! O$ B
8 O$ ^% y# b1 e5 d8 w
学者们也指出，中国政府应好好整顿国内股市，以吸引更多的企业上市。不过，也有些投资人担心体质不佳企业上市会对股市的蓬勃发展有不利的影响。人在德国 社区! y1 b4 ]! d% f! B
2 U, Q, \( M- j$ ^% Z

- L5 T% ]% s! h: S& [$ c人在德国 社区An investor looks at stock price gains at a securities company in Shanghai, China.
1 y6 Q3 t( W' K7 |
, }4 S% p) Q2 ?) K& Crs238848.rs.hosteurope.de8 K/ R: `0 ~5 W! }- k* O

. U$ A% H3 o& V0 ~人在德国 社区China's Stock Market Maniars238848.rs.hosteurope.de3 A+ ?' o2 H7 i" G
0 t- H3 G) a! _; L, [5 r
In China's two mainland capitals of capitalism, it's raining money. The relentless increase in stock prices in both Shanghai and Shenzhen — the former has tripled in value in just the last 18 months — has triggered a stampede of companies in China to offer their shares to a public that has a ravenous appetite for them. Astonishingly, according to a forecast just out from Price Waterhouse Coopers, a global consulting firm, the two main equity markets in China will raise $52 billion in capital this year in initial public offerings (IPOS), more than double the amount forecast at the start of the year. That makes it likely that China will raise more money in IPOs in 2007 than every other major market in the world did in 2006. This year, says Richard Sun, a partner at PwC, only London is on pace to outstrip the Chinese markets in terms of IPO money raised. / Z2 y, O' t/ h" P
# ]/ H$ l& p3 N4 n
More than anything, the startling number testifies to the buoyancy of equity markets in China — which many analysts believe are classic, overvalued bubbles, destined at some point to crash. Indeed, the Shanghai market tumbled more than five per cent on July 5, before recovering on Friday. But $52 billion, whatever the environment, is serious money — without question a milestone in China's extraordinary economic transformation. Consider that the most money ever raised for IPOS in the United States in a single year was $63.1 billion. That was in 1999 — at the peak of the technology bubble. 人在德国 社区1 R: O1 n$ k8 L6 G, V" p. t

0 d1 v4 C; i2 H2 J$ d3 b6 ^9 J% yThat fact may be ominous — the infamous tech bubble burst the next year — and China's shares, now priced at about 45 times earnings, are definitely expensive. But there are enormous differences between Shenzhen and Shanghai now, and the NASDAQ back then. The companies offering their shares to the public in China are not small, technology oriented start ups. They are, for the most part, big state owned companies — oil and gas, mining, banks — most of which have already gone public in Hong Kong, seeking to tap the broader international capital markets. China's two main equity markets — for so called "A-shares" — remain sequestered from the outside world, available only to Chinese investors paying in Renminbi (RMB).
4 ~( T; e: s$ O9 A$ b人在德国 社区
$ p9 \! N6 J# Q" `  yrs238848.rs.hosteurope.deAnd those investors have been starving for places to put their money. China, economists estimate, has nearly 30 to 40 trillion in RMB savings. "People have been accumulating wealth and are desperate for good investment opportunities," says Sun. But China's banks offer paltry interest rates on deposits, so for much of the past decade, Chinese poured money into the real estate market. In part, says Sun, that's because "all the good companies in China were listing in Hong Kong," which until very recently was off limits for the vast majority of Chinese investors. The result, in the first half of this decade, was a property bubble, particularly in more prosperous eastern cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, that drove prices out of reach of ordinary Chinese.
) u1 M* y! u! T* d6 X" lrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de& q& {$ `2 ~8 |$ D
Economists believe the Chinese government has nudged companies that had already listed in Hong Kong to list their shares on the mainland. Officials in China knew well that their equity markets had a well-earned reputation for being poorly regulated — more casino than orderly market. That's why they introduced a new securities law a year ago, and it's also why, bankers in China say, they wanted to give retail investors a shot at investing in well known companies. "For the last year," says a western banker in Hong Kong, "the word has definitely gone out that solid, state-run companies already trading in Hong Kong should consider IPOs on the mainland." If, in the process, that diverted some savings that was otherwise serving to drive up the price apartments in Shanghai — and it definitely did — that was fine, too.
0 B2 h; T2 e2 ?4 Trs238848.rs.hosteurope.de9 M0 {2 n8 T1 Q: W
The question now: Does this year's extraordinary pace of IPOs in China signal a sea change — a year that marks financial leadership in greater China moving from Hong Kong to the mainland? That thought, when the PwC forecast came out on July 4, was definitely giving western investment banks in Hong Kong heartburn, because China still maintains strict limits on their ability to underwrite deals on mainland markets. They probably needn't worry too much, at least not yet. "Hong Kong is still an international market, and the mainland markets aren't, and won't be anytime soon," says Sun. "That's still enormously attractive to mainland (Chinese) companies." Indeed, the Shanghai-based Fosun Group, the largest privately held company in China, will try to raise more than $1 billion in an IPO in Hong Kong later this month — a deal underwritten by Morgan Stanley and UBS.
( f$ ~, ~6 B9 C; x3 j0 x5 {  D' y& G" L) V  ^2 K
For China's regulators, the more important issue is this: Having overhauled the nation's laws regulating its stock markets and successfully enticed some of the country's blue chip companies to issue stock at home, what happens now if a crash comes? Some investors in China, in fact, are already miffed at the government, saying that the new supply of shares coming to the mainland's markets — regional banks such as the Bank of Nanjing are next in the IPO line — are starting to put downward pressure on equity prices. As far as the authorities are concerned, a bit of a correction is probably welcome. But as tech investors in the US learned in 1999, corrections have a way of becoming something worse — and $50 billion can become a lot less than that in a hurry.