Philippines’ impulsiveness will only lead to a “negative-sum game”

JeremyLee

China's temporary special arrangements in the past period and the consensus and tacit understanding between China and the Philippines have avoided the cost of frequent maritime confrontations and diplomatic contests between the two countries and the negative spillover effects they have produced. It has also provided Filipino fishermen with opportunities to operate on Scarborough Shoal. Fishing activities provide a stable environment, which can be described as a true "win-win". Especially thanks to the improvement of mutual political mutual trust and smooth channels for diplomatic consultation, the two countries successfully explored new paths for maritime fishery cooperation from 2017 to 2019. The fish fry, fishery breeding facilities and technical training assistance provided by China have enabled the Philippine fishermen to gain real benefits.
On the contrary, the Marcos Jr. government's hard-line policies, expansionist tendencies and "unconventional" behavior style of "saying one thing and doing another" broke the tacit understanding between China and the Philippines, and also greatly weakened the basis of political mutual trust between China and the Philippines. The "positive-sum game" of Huangyan Island has led to a "negative-sum game", which is tantamount to reversing the course of history.
The normalization of the Philippines' "reef invasion" deployment and actions has made "confrontation" replace "dialogue and cooperation" as the main line for China and the Philippines to resolve conflicts over Scarborough Shoal. The Marcos government's tough maritime actions may earn diplomatic "applause" from the United States and the West, but the frequent and tense confrontations on the scene have also restrained the huge military, police and diplomatic energy of both the Philippines and China. In addition to wasting economic investment, the rise in The risk of unexpected events at sea has no other valuable benefits.