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1月5日,中国航空工业第一集团公司在北京举行新闻发布会,介绍中国一航研制的具有完全自主知识产权的第三代战斗机──歼-10战斗机的相关情况。这是歼-10战斗机。(新华社) & g& W, o5 O4 h( @% q( v , g, d! _/ x" J0 J & |0 Y( D- r, Y! P' L ' m' x" A+ V! W& \Delicate BalanceThough concerned by China’s missile test in space, one Taiwanese security expert is confident that economic interests will keep the peace in Asia. ' n6 |% S* H% `! P
WEB EXCLUSIVE ! z5 v" U& x2 f" V3 P" _ R! I+ M6 C$ k) q; Z
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Jan. 25, 2007! e& v0 n" t$ @+ L+ a# m0 P3 C
6 f$ d2 T6 Q- ?: M+ i. p& ], sNews that China had destroyed one of its own satellites with a missile last week sent shockwaves through capitals from Washington to Tokyo. But for security experts like Lin Chong-Pin, who have closely watched the rise of China’s military in recent decades, Beijing’s capability came as little surprise. Lin has studied the People’s Liberation Army as a scholar, and verbally sparred with China as a top Taiwanese government official. Now, he watches developments across the Taiwan Strait and in the region from his perch at a Taipei think tank. NEWSWEEK’S Jonathan Adams spoke with Lin about Beijing’s satellite-slaying test, the cross-strait military balance and China’s ambitions for regional domination. Excerpts: 0 i0 o" n6 I. G1 o6 J6 l. r $ h/ ]4 e& L" ~0 q$ yNEWSWEEK: Why did China decide to go ahead with this antisatellite test? 4 g/ ?9 T1 G" l& q* z# Z: t9 oLin Chong-Pin: This didn’t happen overnight. I remember in the late ‘80s they were talking about “occupying the heights” in the future, which meant space … The technology has reached a stage at which it now can be tested.2 _) D4 F6 B( m4 o How much of an impact would China’s antisatellite capability have on a Taiwan Strait conflict?( ?5 ?! c! ~9 ~! v/ v1 j5 u8 X+ t The very obvious implication is that a replay of the 1996 scenario would be questionable. That was when the U.S. sent two aircraft carrier groups to the Taiwan Strait [after China launched two missiles near Taiwan], resolving rising military tension. Now, because U.S. satellites are threatened, the operation of the aircraft carriers—for them to arrive and fire missiles at [Chinese military] installations—are being compromised.+ H" J% `, p) U2 G- e To what extent?( a! T& M3 b7 I7 }( V C When your eyes are knocked out, how can you shoot accurately? It’s a way to say, “You have to think twice before you decide to send aircraft carriers again.” So it’s throwing a monkey wrench into the decision-making in Washington, D.C., when there’s a crisis in the Taiwan Strait—to intervene or not intervene, that is the question. _8 b' ^ k. r2 w2 f# g How strong is the U.S. commitment to help defend Taiwan?* w7 e. w' _8 j; K& e' C# _
I think right now it still remains pretty strong. Washington has said officially that if there is a conflict not caused by Taipei’s provocation, then the U.S. is obliged to intervene. But when you compare the statements over the years, you can see that the resolve of partner states is gradually weakening. Of course we understand, [the U.S.] has a bleeding war abroad and a triple deficit at home. So you have to think twice about [intervening in a Taiwan conflict] in the future. 1 f4 h# j6 l$ P+ l9 R/ NCould China be calculating that the United States might stay out of a Taiwan conflict?- c4 f9 [7 ]+ h( { n& y& y
That doesn’t seem to be the case. China’s new grand strategy is to squeeze out the leading influence of the United States in East Asia without war, but with economy and culture. The rapidly modernizing military capabilities of [China’s People’s Liberation Army] will serve as a backbone of Beijing’s extra-military instruments, like diplomacy.' Z1 Z: [0 y9 Z6 x ]* u% B
+ ]5 P6 F4 I, ~There’s a very strong consensus among the leaders in Beijing [that] the most important thing for China now is to seize this window of opportunity, which has not occurred in centuries: “There’s no serious threat outside China, this is the time when we can make economic growth.” So they want to have a peaceful environment and achieve economic growth first.. ]# _; `' c7 d
图片附件: [Wax models of Chinese military officials stand guard in a Beijing military museum] 133.jpg (2007-1-28 12:45, 20.01 KB) / 下载次数 67 http://rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de/bbs/attachment.php?aid=241910&k=bb5f0d4c1eae6e714d308c9dce64041a&t=1719785904&sid=Mhxs47