报道称，15名英军人员的“不走运”是因为伊朗正成为地区超级大国，它正在运用它新近增加的力量。 5 z5 R V R$ h- Q ' B) }6 \* H6 x1 r8 j7 A8 J 据英国《卫报》24日报道称，英国和其美国盟国最近在中东任何地方的活动都遇到了一个新的现实问题：伊朗的影响力正在不断扩大。联合国安理会将要表决对伊朗制裁新决议案(已获得通过)，但没有迹象显示，伊朗将屈服于国际压力，放弃进行铀浓缩活动的权利。 ! l) P- d4 k6 @" y. `4 f# M! ? " K' i/ a5 C6 E" K4 M' @9 i 该报称，伊朗看起来正成为在伊拉克南部与驻伊英军作战的伊拉克什叶派民兵武装的“后勤部长”和“银行家”。在黎巴嫩，由伊朗支持的真主党掌握着战争或和平的关键。作为哈马斯的支持者，伊朗正成为巴以冲突的新角色。8 x7 a: @9 n4 G9 |: h8 U* `
3 {- Y( I9 x# | 该报认为，是美英两国帮助伊朗走上地区大国之路的。首先美英两国将阿富汗的塔利班政权赶下台，这使伊朗的西部威胁得以解除。美英两国随后已推翻了伊拉克萨达姆政权。在不到一年的时间里，英美两国帮助伊朗实现了其主要的战略目标：成为海湾和中东地区的主导性国家。战略研究国际研究院海湾安全专家、高级研究员马摩恩称：“推翻塔利班政权和清除萨达姆使伊朗在这一地区如入无人之地。” % f. I1 r7 E4 K2 c8 a, i ! e: t7 O$ l1 T8 [8 D! [% L 该报还认为，伊朗仍将英国视作“小魔鬼”，它认为英国和美国、以色列一样都对伊朗持敌视态度。它最近还指控英国应当为其边境地区最近发生的炸弹袭击事件负责。两国之间的困难关系在两伊战争期间恶化，英国当时因为拒绝向伊朗提供武器、弹药和零部件而遭到伊朗的强烈批评，随后又发生了拉什迪事件，这一事件直至1998年才得以通过谈判解决。 5 Y* `2 [" c, c: F! Z0 z * _- x) W. I k. QSailors fall foul of emerging regional superpower" F7 _) w/ J$ Q% ?* [7 p5 [
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British seamen snatched on eve of UN sanctions vote as resurgent Tehran flexes its muscles across the Middle East : H: d0 Y. {7 s. Q
+ x5 A6 b* t: d8 l# OThe 15 British sailors and marines seized by the Iranian navy yesterday appear to have been well inside Iraqi waters, but they had the ill fortune to stray into the path of the region's aspiring superpower as it flexes new-found muscles.8 z4 M0 k( r$ y* P
Wherever Britain and its American allies turn these days in the Middle East, they are bumping into the new realities of Iran's spreading influence. 0 b; X" D/ u7 b) i" z" Q/ n7 y6 Q 0 _5 f' ~. H) v1 n: e7 K8 eToday, the United Nations security council is due to vote in New York on new sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear programme, but there is no sign the Iranians will bow to international pressure and surrender the right to enrich uranium. ; Y b/ ~ s0 g! H' k {( Z+ @8 O$ [) ~- kThe Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had been due to address the council before the vote, last night cancelled his trip. A spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, Mohammed Ali Hosseini, told Iranian state television it was because of "America's obstruction in issuing visas". In Washington, the State Department insisted it had issued 75 visas for Mr Ahmadinejad's delegation, including air crew and support staff. ) l' w$ C: M2 s8 kIran increasingly appears to be the quartermaster and banker behind the Shia militias keeping British troops pinned down in southern Iraq. In Lebanon, Iran's client Hizbullah holds the key to war or peace, and Tehran is also now a player in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a sponsor of Hamas. 1 Y2 H l3 w, h$ d: S* T( K' q) b& L1 Q' y% ]5 J
The uncomfortable paradox facing London and Washington as they try to put the Iranian genie back in its bottle is that they have done more than anyone to uncork that bottle in the first place and set Iran on the way to regional hegemony.9 R( j) Z3 p& a& r. d# G4 C) e
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First they removed the Taliban, Iran's enemy to the east, and then they eliminated Saddam Hussein. In little more than a year, the allies ensured Iran achieved its key strategic objective: to become the dominant power in the Gulf and the Middle East. 7 k5 k. s, |( @2 `: t' W9 H+ J' j8 M- k) m+ }0 ^
"Getting rid of the Taliban and then getting rid of Saddam, basically gave Iran a free ride in the region," said Mamoun Fandy, senior fellow for Gulf security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "With the collapse of the Iraqi state, the whole balance of power in the Gulf went out of control, and we moved away from a world of nation states to the world of sectarianism, with Saudi Arabia viewing itself as the centre of gravity of Sunni Islam and by default, Iran became the centre of gravity for Shia Islam."/ C5 w( \- f! w7 R" q
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That worsening sectarian divide has given Iran more influence in Arab states with Shia majorities or significant minorities with a history of subjugation to Sunni rulers: in Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. However, that influence in the Arab world transcends the politics of religious identity. For radical Arab Muslims, Tehran is a bastion of defiance to US and British ambitions, and the Iranian nuclear programme is a source of pride. # a6 S7 C6 [2 ], V : A/ E. R9 _1 `1 r0 z2 q: p% QThe nuclear programme also owes much to the invasion of Iraq. The intelligence fiasco over Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction has hamstrung US and British-led efforts to galvanise international action against Iran. $ L# ~, x% j) f! h0 c, E5 Z- i% G
The sanctions due to be voted on today represent only a very tentative extension of measures passed in December, which Iran ignored. They pose no serious threat to Tehran, but represent the lowest common denominator - the most serious package the Russians would accept./ q6 r) e$ G1 A' U6 K, O% H
?* E+ ?9 E) oThere is talk of military options, but Iran has so far shrugged at such threats. It has seen western military power run into the sand in Iraq.7 H: U2 L5 U& l0 m" F! c! f
! x" G! k) s" zBritain has an almost demonic image in Iran, dating back to the MI6-backed coup against the nationalist prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953 and years of British support for the shah, especially in the volatile period before and after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. - p* j, g; {& F' J Q% o7 M, @! Y1 |: ^' q; [
In the Khomeini era the traditional hostility was encapsulated in the renaming of the road outside the British embassy in Tehran as "Bobby Sands Avenue" after the IRA hunger striker, who to Iranians symbolised resistance to colonial rule. ( `5 a5 N2 X& E4 V" B& D2 C+ c+ g7 z5 h. L8 M( G# m
Iranian rhetoric still portrays Britain as the "little Satan" alongside the "Great Satan" that is the United States. It is regularly bracketed, with the US and Israel, as hostile to Iranian interests, and stands accused of fomenting recent bomb attacks in border areas. 7 y9 q1 a6 q2 J- L$ y # ]- g$ ^+ S8 e/ F) y5 |+ G9 gThe two countries' uneasy relationship worsened during the eight-year war with Iraq, when Britain was lambasted for its refusal to supply the arms, ammunition, and spare parts needed by Tehran in its struggle with the "godless Ba'athists of Baghdad". Then came the long crisis over Salman Rushdie, whose novel The Satanic Verses triggered an Iranian "fatwa" permitting him to be killed as an apostate. The author had to live under special branch guard until 1998 when liberalisation in Tehran and the efforts of the late foreign secretary, Robin Cook, brought a negotiated end to the affair.$ u% n9 M( K, q
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With the external shackles on Iran's rise removed, its geopolitical ambitions may still be limited by its internal problems. Even the relatively weak UN sanctions appear to have deepened fault lines between the competing centres of power in Tehran, with increasingly tension between President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The seizure of British sailors may be an attempt by one faction to force the hand of another.% V. F0 d* Q, T* m5 [3 d2 w1 j
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In Iraq generally, the Iranian leadership must also be careful not to follow the US-British example - and overreach.
