八国集团(Group of Eight)领导人本周将举行峰会,希望能以德国解决全球变暖问题的建议为蓝本达成一项历史性协议。然而此次峰会留在人们印象中的却可能是成员国领导人在一些问题上的意见分歧。比如,美国总统布什(George Bush)在防务问题上与俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)有不同看法,同时,他在全球变暖问题上与欧洲国家领导人也意见不一。 ) G& `' Z t7 K/ i1 c h5 @% l2 y, h \! R
这些分歧突出表明,八国集团有时在解决复杂的经济问题方面已力不从心;人们从中也可看到,就像一些专家所说的那样,八国峰会已日渐沦为一个应对短期危机的场合和上演政治秀的舞台。; n2 ]& H3 m4 n* ^ D |4 {
7 K: B) u# F6 p- Q! I曾在克林顿政府担任前苏联加盟共和国事务顾问的史蒂夫•塞斯塔诺维奇(Steve Sestanovich)认为1999年的那次八国集团峰会堪称成功的典范,那次会议成了世界主要大国贯彻联合国结束科索沃战争决议的动员会。他说,关键是当时有一个亟待解决的问题,而一旦要在发展的问题(目前似乎是气候变化问题)上充当文明世界的代言人,八国集团的运作效率就没那么高了。6 v8 [* ^- j% C9 C
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Für eine Fußballmannschaft mit 8+1 zu wenig - der Klimakompromiss ist nach Meinung von Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber dennoch die Steilvorlage für das entscheidende Tor im Klimaschutz 8 h2 m9 S3 l: @' N" g
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Rifts May Disrupt G-8 Agenda9 @* i# W: v$ _. L% Y
3 B$ p: H4 M* z- aLeaders of the Group of Eight leading nations gather this week for a summit aimed at producing a historic agreement on Germany''s vision for solving global warming. Instead, the meeting is likely to be marked by discord: between President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin over defense issues, and between Mr. Bush and Europe over global warming. 3 N6 Q( b& k2 X/ c& Q9 k. C% M$ i( I) D& t- d& F
The rifts underscore how the G-8 sometimes has come up short in addressing complex economic problems and how, some experts say, its meetings have increasingly become occasions for short-term crisis management and political theater. & q3 _3 L/ [8 p8 A' Y
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Mr. Bush will add to the dramatics today with a speech that warns of new dangers to freedom around the world, both from Islamic radicalism and from authoritarian repression. Mr. Bush will make his remarks at a conference on democracy and security in Prague that is rife with reminders of the Soviet-era aggressiveness that Mr. Bush worries is on the rise again in Russia. Other scheduled speakers include former Soviet dissident Natan Sharansky and former Czech President Vaclav Havel, who led the Czech Republic''s emergence from the Soviet bloc. ! S+ J0 O6 u1 m+ M. t! S. s
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The event is likely to add to friction between the U.S. and Russia, just days after Mr. Putin threatened to reaim Russian nuclear missiles at European targets if the U.S. goes forward with a planned missile-defense shield in the Czech Republic and in Poland. While Mr. Bush''s remarks will look beyond Eastern Europe, he plans to discuss how democracy and freedom function 'as alternatives to repression and radicalism,' a senior administration official said, and 'how today''s world poses new threats to democracy and freedom.' 3 n# O0 ?- E) ?/ c! V
+ s: R7 c2 z# s. GAll the bluster is threatening to further upset the G-8 meeting that begins tomorrow in the German seaside resort of Heiligendamm. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who holds the group''s rotating presidency, had hoped to use the summit to lay the groundwork for new international curbs on emissions of the greenhouse gases that are thought to contribute to global warming. But Mr. Bush threw those plans into disarray last week, with his proposal for a new set of negotiations this fall on climate-change goals, to be held among the world''s 15 biggest polluters. + u5 g% a( [; {: y ! d) Q3 M. J: S# N% `; d% R- M) yThat dialogue likely would include the current G-8 members -- the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom -- as well as emerging Asian powers China, India and South Korea, in addition to Australia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa. In many cases, leaders of those nations prefer the Bush administration''s looser, more pragmatic approach to global warming to the hard-and-fast limits favored by Ms. Merkel and many Europeans. 8 o/ x7 {6 [; v7 T9 `9 g+ y% L7 t0 K4 T) _6 E0 [3 Y' A
Ms. Merkel acknowledged over the weekend that she probably won''t get the deal on climate change that she is seeking since Mr. Bush continues to resist specific commitments to cut carbon emissions. 'If the United States doesn''t move, others may also prefer to wait and see,' Ms. Merkel told German news magazine Der Spiegel. Most European officials worry that Mr. Bush''s counterproposal is vague and could undermine the European Union''s strategy for combating climate change through concrete commitments. $ J4 B" U0 K) ]1 e" E0 o+ o! [7 r, @# x8 l) G" k9 Q _
The breakdown on climate policy and the growing focus on the U.S.-Russian conflict and related security crises, such as Iran''s nuclear program, reflect the difficulty the G-8 sometimes has had in living up to hopes it would become a forum for thrashing out long-term global economic-policy problems. / ~5 ?, z- g9 E" M5 Y7 K3 n& I$ w ! ^. M2 K9 t! }'On these big long-term issues, there''s a lot of happy talk, but not much action,' said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. As a result, he said, the summit''s 'utility is evolving away from scripted, preplanned communiques to more free-flowing discussions among the big players.' + j6 U: l1 r+ Q
; m- ^* ~. Q7 tAs an example of G-8 success, Steve Sestanovich, a Clinton administration adviser on the former Soviet states, points to 1999, when the G-8 became a forum for the major powers to assemble on a United Nations Security Council resolution ending the Kosovo war. 'What mattered was that there was a concrete question that could be addressed and answered,' he said. 'When the G-8 has tried to serve as the high-minded voice of the civilized world -- on development goals or now perhaps climate change -- it''s been less effective.'