把2000亿美元的外汇储备投资出去，对于中国新成立的国家外汇投资公司的经理们来说似乎并不太难，但他们却面对着一个新烦恼：日益增长的金融保护主义(Financial Protectionism)。/ o" x& `" n7 y6 W# N
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在摩根士丹利2007年的一次论坛上，“金融保护主义”这个词第一次被一些经济师和策略师使用，以描述新兴市场公司在试图取得发达市场公司战略性股权时面临的壁垒。* j, i6 \# C+ D: h9 \* Z* T
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国际先驱论坛报7月9日的文章指出，从德国到加拿大再到日本等国的政府，正在考虑限制被象中国外汇投资公司这样的“主权财富基金”(sovereign wealth funds)进行收购。 9 h, @8 S9 S" u7 e8 A; X9 ?+ A ) `: C6 O0 g9 K; ~6 _2 l这种挑战对中国而言可能尤为艰难。因为西方舆论法庭已经裁定中国保持人民币币值偏低正在摧毁西方的制造业，包括轮胎、牙膏和玩具火车被召回事件，又使中国的形象进一步受损。 7 X6 x9 c \% Y: K9 s 5 ?* U I- g0 @6 u, u现在中国又成立了一个拥有2000亿美元外汇资金的投资公司，要从全球的金融资产中寻求更高的回报。设在北京的金融咨询公司Dragonomics负责人阿瑟.克罗勃(Arthur Kroeber)说：“很清楚，投资保护主义已成一个主要担心。”; `4 H$ D- W9 {0 [0 M) ?* y
& b7 o& m# F% J* {克罗勃指出，随着中国的外汇储备正以每天10亿美元的速度增长，其种子资金可能会在10年内代表政府管理上万亿美元的外汇储备，这样中国的对手就会把描绘为“邪恶和共产主义”。“这将是相当棘手的，”克罗勃说，中国国家外汇投资公司要想让别人相信自己的意图是良好的，“可不是件容易的事儿。”8 s& ~6 h- B) } H. R* d
) e9 S9 v3 O0 ^$ {文章称，那么这个被中国媒体称为将有2000亿美元基金的中国投资公司将会如何运转呢？中国媒体称，过去的5年，是中国产品占领世界消费品市场的5年，中国的贸易顺差回过头来投资在世界金融市场，使国际收益率曲线扁平化，进而抬高了金融资产价格。9 Z) y$ o3 _: @ w
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中国迅速积累了数以万亿美元计的外汇储备，其日益增长的风险需求将会在2007年产生一个世界上最大的资产投资者。中国媒体和专家认为，预计将在9月份成立的国家外汇投资公司，将成为规避中国长期增长风险的利器。, u, ^* D, l+ V6 {2 k. S" _- h
/ j$ I D' V- r英国观察家报日前刊登的署名文章指出，亚洲国家在1997-1998年金融危机之后增加的外汇储备，成了全球外汇储备增加部分的主体。与此同时，高油价也使俄罗斯和中东地区的外汇收入大幅增长。出于危机后的安全考虑，这些外汇储备大多以政府债券，特别是美国公债的形式存在，其中仅中国就持有约1万亿美元。' b6 _8 r, Q3 \* Z* k7 `9 z+ A
1 S7 t# R% r1 S一种新型的投资巨无霸，即所谓的“主权财富基金”，想买下所有的西方公司，以及其他东西。“主权财富基金”是指那些由巨额外汇盈余或石油美元提供资金、被国家有效控制的投资基金。这可能导致民粹主义政治家呼吁采取保护主义措施。 ! C9 R: _6 S- E" M- u$ M* @0 G1 o$ Z* @6 J
例如，有报导说，由于担心这些投资巨人的收购行为可能对国家安全构成威胁－－特别是如果它们收购的是一家大型银行的话，德国政府将成立一个机构对这些投资巨人的收购行为进行审查。国际货币基金组织也呼吁对金融资本通过的“暗箱”进行更仔细的检查。 ' i+ e9 Y+ A8 ?$ f" R4 B) h% t / E) ?+ W. ~$ P$ C; F近日，美国财政部官员克莱.楼瑞(Clay Lowery)坦率地说，存在一种风险，即“这些基金的规模、投资政策、运作方法等都可能促使金融保护主义升级”。为此，楼瑞呼吁，国际货币基金组织与世界银行针对此类“主权财富基金”设定相应的指导方针。5 i/ T- U7 A: D) Y4 t7 G
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据摩根士丹利，这些基金总计2.5万亿美元，并表示，随着日本与俄罗斯的加入，至2010年，此类基金规模将翻番，至2014年达到10万亿。摩根士丹利首席货币经济学家任永力(Stephen Jen)指出，“主权财富基金”是当今金融市场的一个重要因素，并且将担任更大的角色。3 T& e' F3 D: N# X
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经济学家指出，“主权财富基金”将推动全球股市的发展，但会导致国债的需求锐减。对于美国来说，由于面临的抛售压力加大，美国国债收益率将逐步上升，继而导致基准利率上调。英国对此也感到担心，财政部和外交部的高级官员正在与中国基金的负责人洽谈，表明英国虽然是一个开放的市场，但如果能够更多地了解中国基金的管理和意图就更好了。- c! G/ `9 w7 e' V5 S
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文章指出，正当这些担心倾泻而出之时，中国宣布其国有外汇公司将通过发行债券的方式筹集2000亿美元。早在这次融资之前，中国就在国际市场上非常活跃，中国曾购买了私募股权基金黑石集团30亿美元的股票。/ B j( q2 f$ x/ J
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与此同时，马克图姆家族控制的迪拜世界集团麾下的全球投资基金的官员暗示，该基金有意在未来项目上与中国合作，可能涉及资产置换。迪拜世界集团去年购买了半岛-东方航运公司。' P* H+ {& u: m+ M% _
5 n$ J: S m& p+ O, R标准渣打银行首席经济学家杰拉德.莱昂斯说：“这可能会使我们走上一条保护主义的道路。我们已经看到了一些国家对此作出反应的迹象。问题是，这些基金运作缺乏基本规则。” $ h8 {1 a' v4 _! k! k8 \* `% e5 `: g# w . ^ f$ |1 G6 o% J莱昂斯提到了美国国会对中国竞购优尼科公司的反应，以及美国国会以国家安全为由要求迪拜世界港口公司放弃美国港口的情况。不过，莱昂斯还说，主权财富基金由来已久。例如新加坡投资公司和科威特投资局自上个世纪80年代就已经存在。那么究竟是什么发生了改变呢？, D5 S/ U: Q; `1 D) f, ?
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美国的观点似乎是，事情变得越来越严重，因为这些“主权财富基金”的规模越来越大。洛厄里说：“新的现象是，主权财富基金的数量越来越多，而且它们的规模也越来越大。”根据洛厄里所引用的摩根士丹利公司公布的数据，主权财富基金目前掌握了全球金融资产的约2.5%。摩根士丹利说，再过10年，这一比例将上升到9%。 & r) ~: K! ]( {; c2 |- ?' j. c) {! k2 Y; W6 m- T1 z
& m( l2 L3 {6 ?Financial protectionism may prove challenge to China 6 o. ?) m! Y9 q" P% T' r. w8 k% v& s- c6 ^
: r6 C/ i3 J$ y4 {% _; uBEIJING: As if it weren't hard enough to invest $200 billion, the managers of China's new state asset agency face a new headache: growing financial protectionism.6 Q" D1 p9 \' ^9 Y, u- w
. V0 I Y: {- G5 X- ?) k8 TFrom Germany to Canada and Japan, governments are considering curbing takeovers by sovereign wealth funds like China's of companies deemed strategically important or vital to national security. ! r$ w/ S* x; c& Q8 [9 }- z- A' G3 K% r. V A* `, F
The challenge could be particularly tough for China.$ p, L( X; R3 C w7 |# [, B, [
. g1 j# C3 o% O% o. \- ~& W$ }Already convicted in the court of Western public opinion for destroying manufacturing jobs by keeping its currency low, China's image has been further tarnished lately by a string of recalled "Made in China" goods including tires, toothpaste and toy trains. ) F- J* [8 h2 }2 u7 M4 R+ ~/ ^$ e6 J9 P; i9 [6 z) c7 R( h
Now it is setting up a $200 billion fund mandated to seek out higher returns from financial assets around the globe.. Z3 @5 ~9 h$ ?7 E( v) w7 [
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"Investment protectionism is clearly a major concern," said Arthur Kroeber with Dragonomics, a Beijing consultancy. ; Z0 r9 Q( p: p1 p! v( \+ [ , P8 @- C. `# d, w8 y( uWith China's foreign exchange reserves growing by about $1 billion a day, the embryonic fund could have trillions of dollars to manage within a decade on behalf of a government that its foes can portray as "evil and Communist," Kroeber said. 1 o& @! X1 M6 m& i' t6 I! O$ _: C+ E/ H
"It's going to be tricky," he said. "It's going to be not easy for them to convince people that their intentions are benign."! v" e4 b* l' j7 H! Z
! T) ?0 t! M% L$ V$ W0 qSo how will the fund, which state media say will be called China Investment Co., go about investing $200 billion?& X! P H' M. }3 W
, O5 b" C% Q" N; EThe agency is likely to be up and running by September. + d3 ]( j2 n7 j/ ] - Q7 m% s" C- ?4 E6 X* X, j6 `Adrian Foster, director of capital markets with Dresdner Kleinwort in Beijing, said he expected China to invest "below the radar screen" so it does not attract the sort of political scrutiny that wrecked the state oil company Cnooc's $18.5 billion bid for California rival Unocal in 2005. O/ j3 ~( B, H2 O; H. U9 t) \ ^1 o& Y8 P* A) \$ f8 O* J
"They're aware of the backlash, and it's one reason to think their investment horizon will expand very slowly," Foster said. "They'll be very slow and steady in diversifying.". r2 [8 z a- d. f+ p6 |! g& B' F& K
7 d% o: Y; ? g- P* `Foster said equities would be an obvious investment choice for the new fund. + u& B# i5 d# {, Z' T ! Z+ I& ^. `; Y& p- |: s& r( DBuying small stakes in publicly listed companies that need not be disclosed would enable Beijing to avoid the publicity that came with its $3 billion acquisition of a 10 percent stake in Blackstone Group, the U.S. private equity group. $ R4 U- F$ R0 a6 @) N, j. ]% J* I- e$ U* I$ q
"That sort of high-profile investment is likely to be the exception rather than the rule going forward because it does draw attention to those sovereign wealth funds and what they're doing," Foster argued. S1 J3 ^; n8 ^. ]' V7 @ * J& E$ a8 V4 l: I! c; s- kKroeber takes a different view. Buying into Blackstone would partly insulate China from political risk. "If you buy direct controlling stakes in companies, people get mad," he said. F8 X6 L1 ^" D. D: s' A9 l8 l o
, E6 y/ a5 A# n- T3 _Kroeber suspected that China, as part of the deal, would send some rising stars to Blackstone to learn investing skills. + v8 p! H3 \8 D% _, Q* a : |$ T* v2 u9 }7 m( L+ ?" ^2 l' PIn doing so, he said, China would be emulating Singapore's Government Investment Corp. In its early days, the corporation took minority stakes in a string of financial firms to which it assigned young staffers to learn about markets and investment. ; _; u$ a& v5 U$ A1 q1 B1 N" z8 @& P6 k+ u- Y- d/ v, g! f
Hong Liang, chief China economist for Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, said the fund clearly intended to groom in-house managers. ' x' z0 @8 A4 R& \ * M6 {; ^5 Z) a# f6 P4 w: g; s$ a0 HChina already requires firms to offer training when it farms out part of its $1.2 trillion in reserves - now invested largely in bonds - to outside asset managers, she noted." z+ J* w5 F: i1 ^% D3 @# {1 `
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"Every time they give an outsourcing mandate they always require training. They always want to learn. That's understandable," Liang said. / o9 f7 n; u C8 L3 ?7 @2 \7 E 5 g2 h1 j2 O' {$ P# h# jThat being the case, Kroeber said he expected more Blackstone-type deals.
