6 v4 c" a% Q' V2 p. A7 @标准渣打银行首席经济学家杰拉德.莱昂斯说：“这可能会使我们走上一条保护主义的道路。我们已经看到了一些国家对此作出反应的迹象。问题是，这些基金运作缺乏基本规则。” 4 g3 j) o. ^, E; ]. `% p3 k$ f0 M, S6 t' g* r4 `' K7 Y
莱昂斯提到了美国国会对中国竞购优尼科公司的反应，以及美国国会以国家安全为由要求迪拜世界港口公司放弃美国港口的情况。不过，莱昂斯还说，主权财富基金由来已久。例如新加坡投资公司和科威特投资局自上个世纪80年代就已经存在。那么究竟是什么发生了改变呢？4 f" J. [- } r7 X( A8 U0 d1 U" E
7 h! ~$ F. ~+ D3 R+ H' \; s8 @美国的观点似乎是，事情变得越来越严重，因为这些“主权财富基金”的规模越来越大。洛厄里说：“新的现象是，主权财富基金的数量越来越多，而且它们的规模也越来越大。”根据洛厄里所引用的摩根士丹利公司公布的数据，主权财富基金目前掌握了全球金融资产的约2.5%。摩根士丹利说，再过10年，这一比例将上升到9%。 R% Q/ S; d* I1 h e* R1 I n5 F$ L" ?, P4 d
- b! P0 e5 Q5 W' d$ a4 E8 hFinancial protectionism may prove challenge to China* [9 t0 u% _' S
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BEIJING: As if it weren't hard enough to invest $200 billion, the managers of China's new state asset agency face a new headache: growing financial protectionism.5 D6 u1 {5 n# k2 n4 P, b" G
- ?! T# z' N- }From Germany to Canada and Japan, governments are considering curbing takeovers by sovereign wealth funds like China's of companies deemed strategically important or vital to national security.( C7 R3 q8 o& f; B. ~. t; s: N
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The challenge could be particularly tough for China.# v( m$ [0 ^8 W" N" v
$ L n+ q" a; W6 a) B4 `Already convicted in the court of Western public opinion for destroying manufacturing jobs by keeping its currency low, China's image has been further tarnished lately by a string of recalled "Made in China" goods including tires, toothpaste and toy trains.% X Q- I% U" r! t0 j) c! \
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Now it is setting up a $200 billion fund mandated to seek out higher returns from financial assets around the globe. 8 u! `8 H5 v |, z* D 6 \$ r5 C0 \' P! z/ V2 f9 @ F0 f"Investment protectionism is clearly a major concern," said Arthur Kroeber with Dragonomics, a Beijing consultancy.6 @2 F. |) w; b. B
( T! Z6 j; C: C f9 t5 FWith China's foreign exchange reserves growing by about $1 billion a day, the embryonic fund could have trillions of dollars to manage within a decade on behalf of a government that its foes can portray as "evil and Communist," Kroeber said.9 F8 d& b, A0 j( E
9 h1 @8 r) x& N+ _9 [/ A: G6 U: @"It's going to be tricky," he said. "It's going to be not easy for them to convince people that their intentions are benign." Z ^; U) N! T: e% r( s
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So how will the fund, which state media say will be called China Investment Co., go about investing $200 billion? 5 u! q' x$ U: ?. [4 p4 U+ b! R 2 ?. n- j% V& m3 q- k! J4 zThe agency is likely to be up and running by September.( b# u+ G: z1 l4 y8 j3 I* C
, ?" r- v8 U8 k! N3 tAdrian Foster, director of capital markets with Dresdner Kleinwort in Beijing, said he expected China to invest "below the radar screen" so it does not attract the sort of political scrutiny that wrecked the state oil company Cnooc's $18.5 billion bid for California rival Unocal in 2005.1 a+ s% i" S3 T
! g& U4 r( T+ S2 \8 m$ A/ g' h% U( u6 C"They're aware of the backlash, and it's one reason to think their investment horizon will expand very slowly," Foster said. "They'll be very slow and steady in diversifying." * [0 S0 V/ e/ {5 g7 q8 V: X# o3 _, v X0 N+ w+ B+ r1 I; I; ]
Foster said equities would be an obvious investment choice for the new fund. ; p+ y+ n E: W7 k& z4 T3 _6 x+ Y: L6 V
Buying small stakes in publicly listed companies that need not be disclosed would enable Beijing to avoid the publicity that came with its $3 billion acquisition of a 10 percent stake in Blackstone Group, the U.S. private equity group.. L2 {- j% |5 f& Y, c; j: V. N- S
! x1 I5 I+ m9 Q5 `8 a1 q& h% _: m"That sort of high-profile investment is likely to be the exception rather than the rule going forward because it does draw attention to those sovereign wealth funds and what they're doing," Foster argued.& Z( M4 H& w, V) N# h+ R! p
( o3 s4 u; X0 U" r* ?4 M- BKroeber takes a different view. Buying into Blackstone would partly insulate China from political risk. "If you buy direct controlling stakes in companies, people get mad," he said. 7 e+ j% g- N4 P% I6 B9 L4 D, M2 H% M0 d* u# p5 v, J
Kroeber suspected that China, as part of the deal, would send some rising stars to Blackstone to learn investing skills.& m V8 u9 m3 c' j( ]) f# E7 t
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In doing so, he said, China would be emulating Singapore's Government Investment Corp. In its early days, the corporation took minority stakes in a string of financial firms to which it assigned young staffers to learn about markets and investment.* _, @( M9 o+ b! ~$ M4 Y, t
1 [' x5 o$ P7 R. X) r' v- E" cHong Liang, chief China economist for Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, said the fund clearly intended to groom in-house managers.& }* s( p/ u. w: V2 u- G
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China already requires firms to offer training when it farms out part of its $1.2 trillion in reserves - now invested largely in bonds - to outside asset managers, she noted.8 j1 R, [; @, S) z- T \
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"Every time they give an outsourcing mandate they always require training. They always want to learn. That's understandable," Liang said.7 \* @& `% {* g1 R. y2 w, W- K
+ G$ `! L! i: o% }! G" s/ sThat being the case, Kroeber said he expected more Blackstone-type deals.
