外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 / c ~/ l" K L: Z' \; l) Z2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 : Q7 T3 q$ w4 S- b8 z4 s . G6 C4 b- W# G& Q* ?+ ~5 w H: {9 Q/ y8 }4 y6 _) i! X
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。9 l0 g" s4 h/ d1 t& D$ ]. R& L
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 8 e- Z& X$ }9 g& m1 k' A3 I6 \; x) c' Y
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 , T" r; B& g% H7 B* E# {7 w4 P # R- d2 h. @1 `% ~ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 j ]$ ^+ c2 J% [7 E
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。7 j' F$ ` P) }" P2 W: J8 Y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * Z) n) p% m) O" M D6 ?/ r- D0 C/ B. p+ l x8 w4 P4 }% [
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。- a7 Q! A' g7 P% N5 z
5 m, r) i* |1 U+ C: A7 I) z （责任编辑：杨海洋）, K* e' x+ N6 |" i# q" H: q7 G5 m0 g
3 O$ {: p# {3 s9 _0 DRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters % L% K3 w: M/ _7 G( ` ( _7 F1 n8 a/ i: vBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * P4 K o& U6 G' |2 v2 q
2 G* e; X: _9 A3 B. L cA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 f# a1 ] h3 l% }$ f( C& ]$ F0 x' X, R/ G* u# m
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' S. h* D$ l4 u+ y+ [" x; {) J9 m( O9 F" E U
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) m e5 B% S) Q9 U7 d! N: z; p4 a3 m
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / d& i9 E1 ^& @6 `& t
5 d9 M& j8 g& l6 h5 t5 F o, u: sFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : ?( ^; Y$ I8 G! L2 n3 t8 _# k7 c
2 F# t. J, A$ a3 u3 IThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & a6 A# u2 Z4 d% H . M# ~, |" g6 H6 U1 R1 e3 _"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / {% H" G V- B# o, I1 O, v' g' ~$ T9 a5 S
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 W$ `: @4 L9 p. f. o' B5 @( l . e3 y1 `/ j: l; iGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ~& M) \& {' d# f9 E. d
: d0 M( ?9 m& s' f+ G: q/ k* CThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " B: U' x j* b; O& }) o$ @( P' j5 P/ U
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 W& e( U! O% h( J
% P' }, E% e$ O+ t( J' t1 {+ r! r3 VChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % j+ L% h B6 b# s1 X, c . A4 m. Q4 i9 m5 e" B F/ u# uIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. - D+ M! L& `/ C6 w3 L# F: C/ ]& E0 j, M! o ?" [5 O
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , h# R* z! c r
( W' o9 d/ D' m"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 r8 N7 W( G; c
T% R7 u+ w0 G& J& e$ Z% hGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 z/ D& C+ G4 V4 F " _- M9 E2 A+ Q3 v- O. O6 X2 A& r8 |/ ZThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
