外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 # z* V) N, _1 e$ C2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞1 Y: n8 C* ]: K! t
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0 D9 a! A, J/ t8 c) x中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。* ~2 ^' k0 I) w9 c
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ^& W* c2 U# k- A) {1 z6 a$ u
* G# h6 O, b5 y1 q, y; v 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' t, N: T, ]9 S3 |. A H, L8 f ' z! ^0 }/ g6 m) e7 V. Q6 s 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。: \8 W. H4 q7 L) L- X9 P2 H/ T
3 f$ @; |; n2 k. |- ?- z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ~ R6 C* L9 @- ] , Q N5 E; e0 h" @4 Y# ^0 h（责任编辑：杨海洋） , A# N/ {2 z) X. K/ c. x. [: B+ W1 C# X1 T* R
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# d, s& c) q7 A0 z5 Q1 Z
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 a& B$ ~+ f2 w( N, T8 w: Q8 C+ }; o' y! _5 l2 q
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * H U, u/ d( _8 s1 \0 _2 q# {" d$ n/ h
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - c& y! Z+ x( w! \7 ]$ b0 ?) a8 L" i7 W7 v" p' V' a: w
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( f/ X1 L5 H3 A: }8 w1 [0 w) ?8 r , n' r- t9 U# [0 e' xRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & ?: f. t& U0 {; m0 W) } 9 h, D2 S# b3 g$ \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 h; |8 ?& g8 I9 y ^# T8 l4 {
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 _) B) G# E# o' y" D- U" g1 q8 Z1 W+ e2 a1 n
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + u( m0 Q6 y/ p * r1 o m8 ^; h9 A R3 xIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! S% e$ @0 X& l! B" Y% \6 w2 O% y* b! T5 R. G5 @- k0 c
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . E5 o- F: I% E* T
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / Y" N$ E% u4 p. E) d7 m E0 A8 Q - X% u. d3 ]; ^7 f5 V( z0 Z6 u7 AUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ M }2 N2 s- g: X
7 u+ ~# a& J' [; t3 NChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " X0 M4 Y9 h2 n& `. g5 T
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , m1 ]7 m: U3 E* S+ Z# |- z' Q6 u* M, `% s& k
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . n# q* r7 x1 K' T6 S2 ` / X: o q) M( G# h- Q# n8 ]"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ j& \: Q- j7 X3 p# F1 q7 X# L : @/ W$ b H5 N% a7 o# PGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " O9 [& G4 o5 ]: T
