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标题: [中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑 [打印本页]

作者: Ampelmann    时间: 2010-8-19 07:33     标题: 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年: R6 P3 V2 v$ X; g  x. s
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞
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/ s  m# ?% @. {2 O5 v3 o: Y5 L! {中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
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* w: ^. m+ p" x6 x  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。7 }" l! N. Q2 M4 ]

* V4 _" n6 e* y1 v6 ~% P6 d  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。% {9 v: l/ p6 f- y/ ?, [

4 c: o8 J  d' m! P1 g  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' `( a) c' v$ ?7 k2 o' X

) ?9 ~) a6 K2 ]2 a# Y9 H  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。
+ t9 `3 a) I- s" _5 f" t  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。
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  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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# M; w3 m& Z; O6 ~' uRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters. W( p: ~: L2 C, G
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows.
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 X' Q7 m8 B% k2 B' Z
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 A" Q3 r  j  i, V! L

6 A: i/ B2 ?& ]After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China.
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% A  K9 i$ f" e% F* r- c0 vRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past.
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  j, M) o/ K6 o  F# gFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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* E" O  n3 |8 R% E' o$ f6 n* V' hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % {6 v: O7 ?! n9 a7 y4 w8 Y

! x) G- o& H1 b; _6 s- p; ?"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 k4 P! j4 q' D; ^" G

, X: F- p+ p* t4 |" g" M: qGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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3 z# o" C* J) ?" ^That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ Q7 l5 V+ l( }1 m% j& I  _

/ m# ?1 d' M+ T; f8 V0 ]7 w% }Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . K/ B  o9 u" \# ?& P
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 b$ @% z! ]8 p3 x$ B0 Y8 G5 N

+ f7 N0 b; V: E% K# @, eIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! y+ j/ f$ W! e8 L

" r& a$ a5 i' Z- b' E" NInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
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, I2 a1 l1 B6 D; P; a! FThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.
作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:26

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作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:27






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