外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ; F( d( i8 s5 Z* N2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 B# k' l4 u" t
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6 e; G8 o% ~; F2 a# P中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 2 Z4 s1 n, _5 Y- e2 L( b I( P* K1 U N
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。: H' P0 o5 ~4 _
" A" J' Y' |1 A/ Q) D4 A6 l 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。+ p# {" U6 \; Q* i: I
0 w2 V! O' t) t0 Z( p/ H! n; A! P 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ E/ G2 T/ j3 i
) o) A8 l& q5 J) @7 \7 z) n 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。5 z+ m; o3 h& {7 B* L" F5 g
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 ^# {8 O, M+ j 0 \8 @0 c8 O6 W 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 , P6 G+ V6 Z( t: f' Q# y : A9 n8 n8 u, Y/ V2 T# l' D（责任编辑：杨海洋） * Q% P/ ^7 n8 R* c 0 Q7 L% Z3 V3 ZRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 B( |" S$ x4 Y( H+ ]( R0 z
& ` w0 l: ~- `: q; l2 m8 TBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + X2 l; P/ G5 }$ I! s4 z; P0 @' y1 v8 _
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 N3 A- g9 J% o2 K3 x9 \
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % E/ {* S! e0 E/ _2 e0 O 6 W h* D( k" |1 P% d& dAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 O5 s. J9 A$ _7 }; G' k/ I ! o" z( S6 \; v9 SRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * I, L- k2 Z2 _( k3 T) w. O( X
! m' k$ @5 n) W+ z& xFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( g8 Y, M% A. l ; p" y* N2 B; K* U. v, [+ m5 KThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 [4 k% ^" M# @" F& z* S* e# o$ S
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 }9 X) I$ M j( b+ ~' I1 h
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * S& _0 h6 g% _/ w$ J2 v }2 y
& C5 ]* V- V) V5 @/ [Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 W. q( ]& \6 B8 s# y
, B7 t+ r+ e3 T; Q5 y2 n- n- fThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 s, D# v0 Z, U
/ w0 D1 S0 t' c/ HUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) }7 ?- {; r: W1 k5 n2 v3 u5 V' D% I! i
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 i+ B* x7 m! d1 B- k8 F 1 R$ J4 K v7 U* ^* I/ b* WIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. u, J( | X! N2 x . f' _; J$ o7 j9 f& }0 nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 `- l6 A6 a7 E7 `* E9 |
1 O. p( X) Z4 d"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 n9 a+ k3 ]& l( {" j2 X: F" f* x$ M6 W) ~2 h& @
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 \5 z {" u, W$ u! r# U
