$ p/ `% K7 t& }/ J% g W3 c0 FRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 t/ r7 I; Q8 g3 O
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 ]6 d2 r0 o& [; I! ~; ^0 u
4 }) r7 P* C, ?8 w. _4 c2 zA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 _7 w2 V. z: c5 Y! o0 E8 t8 S8 X4 j/ X
3 v& r9 x+ c/ XLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 z) X1 E7 V! ~- c( X& N! X
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 j9 O" E! h. w- m
1 p/ h" `4 J. ~, k& FRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! W. F7 M& u$ `: M4 E
$ N) r" [7 H0 W# ]First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * E i* e1 \9 V/ X) |/ t* Y Y % T) s n y" k: D% j# F' K5 xThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( J- K9 n* _% l* l+ P: b% I
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * g$ d/ Z: M. e/ i/ [" Q 8 v. n9 A1 h1 G8 C5 \5 `# nIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 U1 W( _3 c/ D6 n0 ^2 D
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( a) ^1 T, D# D" e( w. u7 N# `
" c+ a5 x7 J2 V! i" {4 \2 P$ u% b IThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & Q+ T* h/ Q2 f- p! T' Z4 ~! g5 N: w) w- m+ f8 M
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - S7 t+ }, n6 _ v5 w
4 c/ w# Y% U0 EChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % Y9 H5 x- e6 w3 k, a# Q1 m' b$ h" y5 C1 Q5 V
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + {) T( q* f1 U8 z& N/ Q" X7 l3 e- o$ O
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # {- A7 z6 y& E* v* }- N# O6 ^ $ x. K6 N/ c& q6 v' h- ^; e4 ["Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. * \; p& ^) r6 ^8 o: P. B6 X* y0 Y | - h# [( Y8 r; I! g- @Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " M9 z/ E1 y1 m1 b5 X' H. F( J
+ F% t* N. h3 ZThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
