4 [+ s& f% A( J0 o, y1 p 3 a9 U" L$ c3 H6 V0 n5 p- w! R6 o中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 P1 l; ?# O3 g: o3 ^+ ~ ( `2 ^$ H4 u; p$ w1 A0 R 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ( u" w l7 z; g7 V) \! |. b9 k6 i8 G3 h; _
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。: V' j/ U( r/ N6 e
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 8 l' U4 p7 i y# d) i9 K$ ^- J. q0 {: _, G8 y+ H1 s; r
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 2 r5 O! A& U- @7 {: J" C 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。2 }+ i/ F. S, X
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ t4 M* U. I: O1 t1 j, W0 b* O
5 U! e- G9 B$ @4 s（责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 O% o/ B: c* S2 q2 i8 X0 P 2 p9 c) s2 Y& q: k) O" IRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 B8 T Q9 i1 n" j y6 U4 m9 R# N; ~- n; M0 q* p! {
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " f, s% d/ W/ K* T6 Z
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / \* w8 n# e8 i7 D8 O% {3 u/ f2 {
1 c0 Z$ Y) P) @4 tLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' ~& _, |9 U3 B& L7 u. }6 i p/ v, d% k1 Y+ j
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % s/ @( z2 M- e4 R
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( a% m# c3 X9 [( Z, R4 \& f+ l
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 J. l8 c2 h. T' ~
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ ^/ N! ?" a6 U/ y. U& v! W
" n) I: D6 a7 Z% g8 D"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + D* m' G/ ]+ E- L% ^' n8 ^' s, ~/ P( S" _
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 s3 h H7 o: Q' P' m- q0 B0 |8 r, M) e
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; u+ Z1 ~4 X8 n( @( b1 }/ X0 X1 y" T$ a5 Y7 Q$ S
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 f: N, I! K* S4 q7 f* T
# Q: p3 ]. H5 S+ bUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ h% i5 N+ Y P8 r
& r6 X+ _+ m$ Q/ V, K" ^China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * a- i/ x* Q8 c: K + Q% S% b o7 R d/ H7 J3 J1 rIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 G2 e( y5 t4 F- A9 P
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . x/ [# u* J: j. n' t
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) n' R6 G( O" Y+ X& q8 l) d9 w9 @' _1 Q) O/ B- z1 T
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 p4 U6 V- r# }+ i* j+ X! \+ K. D
