" q0 _! r" q: y 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' k0 g: u- H4 c( n1 K3 B ( P$ m& h. @& o 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 S/ f0 \+ B5 J/ |1 M
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 ~! w! P, Q$ r) e' y- _! E( Q " ^. E+ c6 n6 E+ B" ` D 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 3 C3 c6 J1 k8 P9 u; N " w! i8 \) m& G, ?+ K4 I（责任编辑：杨海洋） ! q; o' P4 m! \) A" f& o7 P ( _8 t4 y9 r, j! K6 s4 S) }% n) eRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 2 D. E5 k# x; O8 t* g5 b. R: l; H: c: Z( Q$ |& u% K
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 ~# F( h$ H7 b/ h2 h ' g+ k* I8 I1 i5 T) U0 PA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . ^) t1 A/ K! `! d
9 t8 `" I( `0 Z; L7 eLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! J; O0 f; Y6 K. |5 ~& `& A& d' Z
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( B6 z& V3 T( ?- F, C8 J% f
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( x6 O" t2 {6 T5 X4 P
" V$ c- o* E3 R9 Z9 t( }First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ u3 D6 S2 @0 l( ?7 R" W# z$ h: b9 H+ z, b4 o6 W3 J
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # k6 K2 z8 u4 y2 j) G" N
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 Q. T. h! q( v4 _: L! \2 k # X1 b. i0 @ J" DIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % ~ f0 B7 O6 f ) `) \: L0 H7 [Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; s- f" l) G( x B. D
; k( y6 g; s! QThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # r3 H% |2 P4 |' Z+ W4 i" a$ r) E
- ]- w" o% \* V9 H/ g! D3 D6 FUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! G: _ j& P3 |1 Y) z& n8 D( x
% v# b9 J# t4 o7 H# y2 bChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ z" o! Z! O' y% h! w. d1 [ 1 u2 a9 i1 t8 r& Y- o% u: \3 Q; pIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( C0 C `" S2 J, s/ N& b3 E4 a+ J8 N, z! U
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . G" k) S1 v' I3 q" W7 R! ]
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 k' l8 D" `% k$ u , A( C9 {! z: G. A) HGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / T. r$ _) n& M) z A7 k# m' M; A
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
