外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年& R+ k, i3 t. i- S
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 / I6 h9 i' @! [+ B1 l+ y r9 D2 p- }, w* L + m7 }1 X2 v: b; Z3 P3 S
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。% B' X- O) ^' r/ F. G+ C& L
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。/ H, M$ [& ]- ?3 _' |- _5 n( J/ u
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 u/ z4 c( T" g- A
5 m1 l: C$ L$ K+ v8 q9 i! f 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ! m6 j1 t8 r* G5 I, C# V& f7 |, y. O! v @& E5 p, |
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 D7 y3 X" p1 c# `1 o) t# H" \
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 . N- |9 m0 a1 k/ a& `; D+ ^ 4 e6 x. V: Q2 i& X( a. }# q 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + i7 L4 E2 H& w0 }% O0 n4 b( c( N7 J5 k （责任编辑：杨海洋）. Z; S! R, C* i! t- F6 E) R
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters' @6 h7 z% [2 ~( A. I
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * {: K0 j! w3 h. Z" D$ V. R; b; Z4 b6 K+ D! `; p! _
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + v2 [$ u* Y8 g8 B) H3 d
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 Q/ }( C" x ~6 h& e: K" z8 f0 G' ?6 y$ g; n
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : Q) C& ?# @9 S. ~! k0 p
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . Q' S8 r5 L- i- t" F `, t
; q7 ?( S5 ^. Z2 M5 I/ e3 LFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 G4 _9 s% T, C/ _2 d9 a4 Z. ?
3 h Q6 @) d6 I9 bThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; r% Q" u7 W' c/ j. ?% a8 Z5 p) c
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ e: [2 v* S6 l) g+ ]7 L
1 O! o& G1 f7 }In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , p; i/ N: k) X* o/ Y |
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) |6 n: i6 T8 \
$ S; l _. ~& ~( ^# rThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " R5 g. A0 o Z# w9 e, ?- D& F! T: {( m) D3 H$ w/ M) j
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + w# X& Y! r, k
2 ^3 R6 S8 ~# ~5 B z* \: j/ gChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * p# f0 }) s2 D9 x: q- D7 ?' K , ]& x; [; P) E" i) Y$ QIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 f% N0 m" U F/ u1 g* S: D9 F% R
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 l& S8 m* T' u6 ?0 |9 @
* O0 ]% T S. t5 O. n"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) _9 C w% c8 `7 `2 ~* |" ?+ [2 C
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , W B6 r( c( Y5 I9 ]3 Y& F
