# Q7 {1 p( _3 s5 O3 t# r1 w5 A中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。: o' z: \1 `5 z q0 w7 H
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。8 y, O5 F( G8 K1 q* _8 y6 R1 s
; b* I D. p/ J' o 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 D8 Q1 f+ O2 ]7 l1 C3 y! z6 U& A5 r9 `" S- e
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 3 W2 [- d: g. {! ] . _) _* \! b. {1 e$ ~: }7 m5 m 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。3 O% j$ ~# d! m$ I4 \& Y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( r% r% E* ]& l* s
; z2 n, Q4 c& U: v! T6 ] 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' k" z7 Z" D6 l 5 I- o% t, C/ F' l G9 u- B（责任编辑：杨海洋） 8 [ J: q$ b: E! e, i7 @3 v1 ]# u* s" ?" ~) i
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 {. O- J0 ]0 s# n* Y
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! a$ G* A% y7 h+ y
# p2 p! ^. X! E5 c2 Y1 N6 kA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , q$ x" R K6 [ # d* k3 R9 c, o8 M3 r& o$ ZLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - R% w1 e9 o! C) \/ ^: o; K. F* L9 B+ t2 J8 l" ?3 d: c" t
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' [- ?, u& }( y3 ?7 s
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # w1 @3 n0 [% {# }
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 n+ S. j( F) T3 J3 d: g8 w$ ~! f6 X$ l% ]; m% O8 X
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( ]4 N9 M% b; j+ q$ V! W. _7 D" ]% h; z
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . _0 f& u+ u6 J, L( | $ W/ Y7 j2 r' u+ A) bIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . r5 Z3 Y! Z( \# N+ S
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , H: z0 ^7 {( T
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 R. w' N6 N" ~7 v- d* U# j
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + p3 X7 J$ Q) D5 @: f- d 0 _1 N; |$ G$ c! x; L$ ?3 kChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 M; r- ]$ t1 h9 l7 n. e) U. X % T# Q# g- A9 [5 YIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + H) ~$ K5 \# j/ U 9 I' h, [4 M, O2 ?. OInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 V0 [, T4 u2 t% g. C
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / T: c; {$ R$ |" n8 l
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) S8 i+ M& {7 @0 H, ^) ~8 x& i
1 d; @. l. l7 n# P. a. {Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
