外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年( Q) K. h& L( Y6 ~& c! Q Q
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞3 l5 [0 V# J3 l) F# |1 x S+ y$ U
: n: B6 _1 L$ \5 T5 v* a: m
* d6 t; i: n v) \中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # T; m* e' S, B( N8 U2 K3 h; p' `8 v c' B1 V
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ) u( {5 |6 c) m) T! M% j; z; j $ K/ J7 y+ l6 l; {1 q5 r( y R1 Y3 l 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 " c$ x: @! }* P. y c. ~! N5 f" c+ S7 V6 l
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( e8 V) i O( ^, h1 w
- b" `+ q5 c* f @2 H& d
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' S! U8 j5 y! [ B o2 b 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 3 c+ ~+ K: ^$ X: p! v2 Y: C& s( x3 C+ ~
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。- a4 ]3 |; l0 L) }$ l7 `
9 P3 x# d) O) L4 L# C3 M" N（责任编辑：杨海洋）2 N. v2 I' m) ?& L* `6 T- m* y: ~
* ^( Y+ S/ n6 c/ ~! R
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 r0 J4 D# H4 ?8 K/ _& q' r; {; u# Y9 a+ ]
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * k* a: }9 _1 t1 H! W
9 s: N2 |& f/ k B& @
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 G- a. u( ^, R. V
, m9 g$ f; g4 R; fLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 i6 z& r9 T4 `; [
, F; I6 w' C( y8 s9 S: {9 ?After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' ^# n5 X/ @9 K; Z. ` 7 u$ Q+ p% @, Z% @8 Y8 x" DRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ; q8 S T8 f. h( ^, P: y$ F/ C
" H: x! z; \9 Z% L+ XFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 {3 M; C' e6 l3 B O 2 R% i& c( N' B) hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * z6 U$ \6 @/ @. L$ y
; G( q& z w( `7 i" w9 L4 @& I"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 q! X/ h5 g6 @ ^2 D1 T* L7 C/ i
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % L% K9 [3 \3 X/ v& o, H/ P5 e+ R) D; V# |4 @! ~1 j$ c! D W
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & c" L' [: F5 Z2 v; ]
7 i2 h9 Z0 v" @9 G+ V; x
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 g$ a# |' c/ x+ C: I6 J" H* o
$ R4 V t" r! H2 I+ T3 B H/ l
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( E0 {; [5 S3 f0 N( E
Q0 r3 M! G6 P: ~0 P% a. {China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 R7 h$ Q0 m% ~5 Q% p* f
! C& t$ q' [; A) @If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 m$ I2 r" v3 u y
6 |3 U6 ?( ], n Y& [; ^
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 O$ S+ j9 \' W
6 U9 E! i; C7 B
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 t0 n4 h$ L" I. G4 ~
9 }0 ^6 N6 T1 k9 B! p* Y5 _* o
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 {* ]' z; f% T! d! S9 J
+ w2 W5 e H- ]' s+ S: LThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
