- S$ V. ? l3 Z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 & ^; }5 |* r) Y 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 . t. ~; }, h5 P+ R9 \& N) X& \" H8 w& n; q; z7 S9 j
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ V5 E9 H+ t. r5 A3 U
& W8 m+ g( L* Z3 O; M& {" z（责任编辑：杨海洋）2 n L5 j' o4 b5 Y% m% y
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters * L; |+ [ Z: I4 C& Y& Q9 y K0 w2 k& P; r# a
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 x& P/ d+ o% e
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' e. w3 M- ^; O3 M; l + h5 I$ [1 b3 u4 |5 a/ B9 d7 V- rLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; g+ Y; I9 x5 m, v {0 Q' Y" O! n4 Q6 g; N; J
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 H, S6 o" k0 U- w& f; G) W
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 A p d5 X" k6 @) ~3 P! @ N* j) ~2 ^" x/ b, HFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * E: W% Z- |$ K1 M& Z
- \/ V& m6 k1 w2 U. j6 ~/ rThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' }% F- `0 O( l7 K
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " {2 b- {# {9 Q* k+ h* w3 m
, O/ _; S) H! a9 X1 o' Y# Z; \9 xIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; u. r$ K3 a7 m) G1 b" A# ^! m X
7 G: o X' H# {6 N g d, m2 \Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 x# H* c1 ?; u9 P) ]$ @ R1 l1 W" H
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. E7 `+ t% j- U/ l5 O# a
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . v$ \- i5 m' h8 [2 t; _7 P1 Y& G8 F3 D7 i+ a' {! u* ^- N
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - v1 T. h& S5 B; ^ / Q3 ?) |' ` Z' M9 c1 X' xIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ m% N% d- |) F" \& P # o0 }* z, S! mInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % \) Y/ L% V$ @, }" Q* O
% ]& l) y$ j, X- i% C' O) k' W2 E* z3 x"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 z/ y6 Q, w1 ]% \2 V
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' \0 ?: o3 q/ _, |
e8 L" @; _5 U8 I. @; k) yThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
