外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 6 T0 u8 Y B# M! j( Y% G2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 2 n8 ^ g7 p+ v$ V0 M ( a2 M! O2 T. S2 u 9 `4 f, g; @! X& f中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # S# k6 a' N9 S6 V5 x ) Q* V0 P0 C" X* H" G3 J. B 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 a/ a4 l* M5 m Q) |1 }
' b$ x. r' p% Q8 H% C 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 x n. p3 I" j# b9 W' d) j* E$ A: g: Q8 K/ K4 b4 L" a
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 m; i6 q9 L7 e) w1 A- a2 }
* D+ z S2 Y7 K8 a0 r3 F 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' v& I" \) K/ ]# t& } a/ j 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。0 _; ~2 `! D- U, m
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * V& \* S! x; w# }3 S/ b$ }! h ' \7 h/ |2 i) R. F1 i, P- p（责任编辑：杨海洋） & [' y) \' q, m7 j# ]# Q- p+ I* C/ ~1 m- I$ R P
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( {7 e+ n# V. u7 p- P
% _7 s, U) T6 ?7 R5 X& DBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " U/ O" q, b0 Q9 g9 s) [ 5 B1 O% r% k- {5 bA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : |: R( g. m. S9 @" D5 C ' `- A" v' A) m' f/ Z8 oLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " U, A& Z) T1 V) S7 ]5 B 1 I# c8 [4 X: H; [9 pAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " I/ c3 x6 x9 b, I6 v S ?1 s2 W7 Y! L
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # m3 s& @# z1 ^6 N8 S
0 ^* {7 u0 h# B6 J( kFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( A _( t, a5 n V3 ?' ?% d& P+ {: ]" f
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # H' r, R7 H$ @( h" {" S' u6 e' [
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! u" D/ M7 G. G. C( U8 v h
' b, i1 e5 F6 g7 A! X' e7 uIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 q' i" w9 K: M
9 C/ C5 c; q% KGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 A2 ^, O( i1 H6 Q3 C
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 D/ f1 ?, S7 |- U
1 a/ f, _1 ]* x, t4 M# _3 | ~* @Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - B+ M3 }; G d2 t" v2 }
% n" a- S& `" S3 n% bChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + }9 j0 ?8 _) S2 U* L + c# @5 F3 w: b* lIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * Q! {& _5 i, J) J5 n- m' J$ U) M
: f9 _: S9 k7 T3 ?7 U! Q6 OInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 L7 f# X) Q1 f1 H
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - Z4 u( p9 \7 i- ]& \. m9 }5 X( c- ~# c) q2 H, i0 J: q# P _
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * {# A2 K. M/ n8 \( X
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
