& u2 x5 G, |& M5 s8 t! q/ z; k$ K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 / W1 b0 @, C# O' Y. \9 V9 b/ t+ `
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。0 v* w5 f+ A/ Y7 O
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。1 s# h \, @! c `& S
* f& c6 J% i/ V2 n2 a B 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。/ P+ G, @! k% K1 B# N) z
2 h. B& h* v* j% Q; F$ |# }5 Z（责任编辑：杨海洋）7 U; X+ E1 `+ S2 [3 O, _2 C
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: ]; o }+ \' A( M
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 S! y- `8 K: \0 {* Z, F
% y2 b4 {: r; n) O9 N$ k; kA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 V0 v4 l9 U( V# W 2 X' Q% q: l& p4 F0 A }+ }Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 a) \( q$ x5 x, @/ o# u9 Z6 Z/ r% g% K
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 `2 ?7 T1 V0 R/ B8 Y' j/ h3 o ; w% D- J/ l/ VRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 ]; F$ W/ Y8 H0 s; [ Q: g# |- J& b% }/ e0 b& j' [( s
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 u& W" V: Q; e" p# z9 ^
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - Q0 g9 H# U3 t2 T9 h3 v$ q1 |+ Z p: I* c5 r6 O+ ~- ?! d* N
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 j' w6 W _$ S
3 t2 P7 I9 A! w# U) V3 SIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 s# Z+ v3 O7 C- O8 v- b) ]* P" W1 r
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : B# h+ Z/ i4 @ u$ B0 P& o" L ) X6 }' ^; G9 e' |( cThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 V* `* `0 |6 P$ P
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 b' K6 ?8 G, d; ?% Z
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 J. j" l s7 T7 I* b) |9 }5 t7 ^1 R# B
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . P g: E( }6 x' V8 E ; H( G1 v- x: S* d7 N3 d; j/ iInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 ~; e( f; h. V/ O" S7 y# T , F2 V- Y9 U: _" V3 p9 G" y N) K"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & f" B( Z; I/ F: Z0 o6 s
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % Y; |- v9 [5 B1 F# K1 j
( a6 h2 m& p; L. H2 M7 RThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
