1 f3 g+ Z' f/ A 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 `- ^0 x3 A) a+ Q% @* M
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 : b# v# y; y+ \7 m3 \' D( q) H( M1 |: ~
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 2 k- Y, N9 w! w9 B5 g 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 M) c, ]1 `0 ~* T: v: c 6 T6 \, M7 a* H6 T$ g5 f0 z2 s 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 `5 H2 H5 [3 O% f! s: |7 U6 T6 E, z9 o7 [) z （责任编辑：杨海洋） & K% ]! S# |6 k3 o$ S) {. _) M 2 w8 b2 X/ u1 M' u- E8 R0 BRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ; H% w* j. j9 {8 x w0 O1 ~" R x. u3 X/ h
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 H/ T4 S1 q4 d. u q l 1 y1 O$ W/ _3 N$ L0 J5 }A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ H% O1 u2 Q" @9 w+ ], O
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - j# e/ `% G4 G8 O; l5 F$ T0 }# Y7 T, C& ?5 c
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) q j0 t$ N5 d; s
7 g2 o* A; T3 K3 j6 {4 k1 Y6 fRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' _3 e4 s# p ~) }! u* N$ f
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . H" I- B2 f$ m
2 t& O4 v3 \1 E3 ^' S; w; _This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 u& z' E& c, N6 e C& _" N! c: h- N/ K. r: v8 \+ T/ ?
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . \) i7 s0 p' F1 f2 M2 `
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # e9 U8 S1 x: b0 N: h7 k, X. `# g' S4 c
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 W0 b8 }" \. J8 Q4 q% M' q + x/ U1 r/ D$ [That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( c+ E# y2 l7 Y! b& Y$ x& q* [$ H1 d: \! [5 h1 r! v
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) M6 h* H6 |( z3 G, ^; O/ _. d. P R( O; ]
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 l6 g( L- a6 A2 L
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 S2 i) d" X1 `7 n
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % {9 I9 @) O0 Q( z1 c" r
: {' z/ _ \# S5 @. B* o"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ m( a$ A% m9 m6 j$ q. k + T; O) T1 U+ X. n( FGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' [6 i9 b& V8 G8 S2 {$ f
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
