外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年! {+ l. x+ H, ?* K% \, K
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 . X& i! @6 F( o* c- N) D0 N3 o, u1 C" _4 l2 L
3 F6 ~' _& ~% y中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 A2 i1 n! g+ { : c& V. Q2 F n' D. r 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ' D. M( q$ I# j" E5 H" k0 J1 C) } + H( ?5 {! B0 a8 W: w 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。) t( R0 y. e8 o9 H L" a" t
6 s5 _4 W! n* k5 p
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' d& J$ p9 l2 G' d3 h
% f/ A7 W& F8 f D1 ?! n9 \
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 + b) N7 B' f" ]7 ~8 D! a 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。2 Y, P* Y+ O! U/ N9 ^5 \5 X# q
# S$ p, q* |. k' G
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 . j- n/ v6 y- n& a+ w: r. V9 ^ ` （责任编辑：杨海洋）+ _. U& h6 J' N1 G& |; O8 w
a, F2 t0 p0 p% C. I+ }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 1 ~; R L7 u! u' W Z' e% Y% w+ ~& r8 |+ y6 D# j5 K
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' I/ u4 }8 i7 D( J E
2 W' d( s3 k2 QA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : ~3 u+ i) `# w& o
- ]! I6 q- a! t7 g" }% `
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / V; u6 K$ X& t. `) d* X, I2 X; E! M% J2 _
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) f# l$ R, y- _/ O( G% e6 g, J1 {- K( O" N
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 F5 w4 s p& u6 ]
3 g! @" x4 l9 r, m
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 W6 [7 O* p) }/ u7 w& q8 g8 h * `: c" N9 q( @2 G5 ?6 T/ ^9 FThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 \5 ^( ~& e# I7 Y' T
2 o3 U2 y4 d& E: O"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + b s# w! p8 ^# O% q% Z; C6 Z7 u0 i1 Y `7 P i& R, J7 B
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # d, I+ A& Y1 y0 q/ {
: r6 Y8 P+ ^! Z' H9 o8 i2 G+ B& ?$ c- aGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 1 m' u- k% ~8 v3 K' L3 u: n
' r7 d* h# [ y6 o" v4 \That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " F. O( B4 U$ V3 u( \7 r3 T7 s- F" j1 {0 U
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : O; {) Q, \& D# A/ X: v & }; j1 |+ B/ {, I$ W6 PChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 y; U4 |' a2 Y+ ]( O5 T3 N3 v& ?" M/ w! F8 e( ?) F
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) O5 x9 q4 t+ b U- I* ?4 D; }6 { 1 ]5 _1 o& t+ ^; {: LInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! E; f: @* r; R' C1 ~" u4 c8 ?0 }1 b: P, o. F6 q- X
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 e+ A* R* h, V d' W4 Q0 H* s( U
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : ^% t7 w) n+ f+ X" E9 C0 \- A
3 G a! |4 D# M" `. MThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
