/ l, |' B( U8 Q5 x7 q9 ` " C9 @6 m# ]* Q/ T% q中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 : A0 @, Z7 h! P; e& u, ` a) `2 v! r
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。) O8 E2 Q1 N9 ?, L$ p
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 6 U: J. b- H1 t, G5 }) v, ? \) ~7 ]9 |5 w3 p& E/ m2 u
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' ?+ G5 P: t: r 4 \4 `+ H2 _$ x' B3 g 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 - j5 e N1 s7 F 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。& O' q K) o Q; G- M
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 - e6 a: L' I% W: Z2 @& L J( e3 N 3 S. M- a- M& B, Z; n% m* d* s（责任编辑：杨海洋） + H2 w$ a" n( e- H: R% Z7 J0 [1 }# a: }0 i$ m3 |. Q- i
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 k+ P1 ], E2 B! ?5 C4 [, A+ j* S6 J0 R
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * _; t, [. J! [0 r) }! r ( R: |+ T, ~5 O' C9 r$ OA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' g+ K; t% Q2 l0 G: d O* }* n$ v6 K4 I0 A+ Z; N
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 ~) N% @6 b! w) @: F6 b+ B. P1 ?5 Z1 R- w) M3 {
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 ?6 x! D4 n3 \& [ E) L 9 S" w+ h% V1 O1 s; O4 |9 U6 c* _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , p/ {" I& p/ F O# u7 w
) m8 e/ Z! s: r& NFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 m# V/ W# v+ w
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # Q% Y8 Y+ {% h( B8 Z( E$ q. R. }/ N
( S% }% l, m2 j E5 w"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' f; b# ?. r' ^0 p/ {0 w1 y0 A
* @( P3 f( L: N: m2 |& R6 qIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 {. c, w9 u+ B! F3 A $ r: q8 g: H' l3 K$ RGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " y1 D1 K# R, L
0 P9 H6 O, K6 S: @) C' UThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; t3 ], n" H9 b
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + t+ V5 {% a2 K0 y2 |; o- s# S7 D4 r2 ]! t; K+ m
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " D. }$ C( N$ s2 ~1 y3 p6 J0 Y0 ~: {# i( Q5 N- h. `
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & j' {! z& _7 {& ]/ u: O
9 }2 U4 ~ v7 [International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 y% [) u/ i7 \4 |
3 t% c' V. F; X7 M. ]6 ?& r: j4 r"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , ? @5 y* W- I4 l0 O. U! A! l l( r( ^9 t' c9 ?7 x! yGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. S- m t/ z) Z( b% v& s& x/ j* a
- [1 ~. @; j, m1 J' e# G" M) eThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
