外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年9 @+ v+ _; D! M1 p$ y
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞7 O" } o! ?3 d! Y b2 S2 N
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。9 B4 a3 H- z {( I5 ?
0 i1 ^: M- b N% I- K3 n$ a 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " Y& @4 N9 U; { U0 A0 G, H) E ( z8 H6 t9 z$ n p" r$ z& K4 Q- E 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。. e: @# x" a0 x1 Y: q) k
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' `2 X. L% g% R2 ^ k& x# d 7 s- e% ~- g4 Y: i* m 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& s. V3 ]# S2 G# g. \7 p j
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。6 L# R/ y3 T+ E3 ]9 R
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 ]& W B/ A' ^9 }7 x
; H; o; w P. w V) @- ^ （责任编辑：杨海洋） 3 u9 x4 `) X' C r9 i7 i2 O" i1 \2 ]$ n! ~0 D5 _" i8 m
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) C! m8 w6 ^5 x8 t) v+ _% u
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * o" b3 T8 k. H. @- V0 p2 b
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 C! t* X* b# A' Z+ ?1 c7 z8 R( H2 H* F, m
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 p8 M: X' E& \
4 M6 P6 P2 w5 `4 f3 V4 w9 @After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % d. N1 o& @/ X. C0 e* K: I4 M
, @/ B/ x: y( \1 iRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! m# E1 E/ ~; W' Q. |
+ m% q; i$ A$ ?0 F' Q" y4 \- w; DFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 V" X* e9 C& a4 [! B, w* e' f: k; S3 g' u1 v4 }9 G+ [% L
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; o9 k+ B, E- x2 @. u : I- [; A/ p2 }9 a$ x1 h& _) t"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( L" k, C* O6 V1 Y+ A0 t
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 M% l5 g' |; r9 ^! Z0 a% A & h v' g9 A- o' D1 [Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & ?: i8 p( X0 w0 L* V0 P0 T" x5 G4 ~
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - Z+ m* e$ I) N0 T5 g0 o
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " U) C0 a: B. |' K2 q0 L" Y/ ?; {0 [7 U& e+ \' C2 `# Y6 G, f
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - j) j, K% b7 l8 \; f+ {
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + v* a2 f, l9 _3 b3 a1 [ , U5 i0 U( K2 s/ K; V* xInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 b9 z# D1 y7 W7 C' v- y% P- ?7 P6 z% n
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / H' n* b3 F9 u, b! N& A 4 A. l1 s, G7 m( N) TGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 | C& O( z/ K# U, \, v) }, w 1 T5 a1 b+ m8 ]Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
