外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 8 Z/ Q, v; W$ r, }) ^ v5 I# O2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 - Q7 H7 {) w6 {& [+ z9 { 6 V. j1 y' w' e3 T4 s% G* D / r; r6 r. s8 v4 @' w" w中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 F$ c! H8 S, ~3 f- S& t
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 e/ D6 G1 t. w% R2 k0 q; a- g$ o! _4 C" S2 `
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。/ _0 T! [5 K, s! s: F* T' s9 l
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 8 y) _: s+ u" s3 W, D/ H" M; o2 j, ^* {) u( H
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ E3 ]: p8 C6 ?: M- Z4 e 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。7 w/ t+ o4 @$ i# k) V) s
, k3 Z4 T& n( r& W4 q. R. h 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 v W9 P5 U5 H2 l) v 0 y9 v8 q0 \) [, j6 F) w# w; C% @1 Q（责任编辑：杨海洋） # m% v0 z$ o( W6 X4 I, }& R7 m+ F9 e * r _) S5 ?* f- iRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) q* W" C% f" }, S6 c
! Y' o" ^& N3 Y# h1 ~$ dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % a$ n2 b3 b$ n) n; r0 z" R/ r
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 F: B: K; u9 [' q. s' y5 J$ ~# V7 N; p
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " N% V. z/ R4 H( u1 ~$ T+ g. A1 F; Q8 T4 a7 e
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 a) P: K9 `% J9 `2 Q: F4 i" S" G. P; t7 X5 g, X" x
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - I+ C& R2 i* V1 C B/ e0 @ ! Q: _" g/ M; ]3 c* P) nFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : F. S/ f, y1 X2 w
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : j/ g/ j, V+ ~# c4 c3 K' F% s8 S8 f# k
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & O* O: s8 e6 Y0 x: _ * Z7 U! ^" w" `- @In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( O' l; F1 v1 c& h 9 }; p2 R6 b2 U( i$ Y9 b5 a- N4 WGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 Z& V, e" I, g0 Q, |. a
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' o& |2 M) P' k( ?' x+ f, R
# I: U& U. O8 x1 CUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 k" N8 m2 n. g& g) D( B9 a: q
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 B# _7 N5 V8 ~
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 u& w( }& N0 b
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' q }, b1 i9 ?# n ] x g3 W$ |! J' X
7 q, O5 ^* S1 A% f"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 I0 c# L8 o* `8 R; b 2 X0 t+ a7 K2 K+ Q' J" yGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 y ?3 B, p. ~/ P3 J3 j( a# i# ~: E0 i: S' K2 N5 }
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
