外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 . x% ^7 G/ }4 t7 n: s2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ' w/ y! F8 Z" s* c, `. d : a; j! ]( U3 I- C' t, k : I; C9 y, D) P5 @中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。2 Q1 h( h2 Z7 d1 U' j) {
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ) r; f; x1 j6 ?( { x6 c% b3 U* {2 ~; h" H' L# e/ P& `
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & p; N1 w/ R1 H3 ?4 r$ E& b1 b, o. ?' S E6 M8 B1 X4 ?! f. p) w
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 5 [: d, C8 N7 ]- w2 p: s ' J' h+ b- [7 | T! h 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 - b3 c5 |) o+ T+ X 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。! `3 Y& n! T2 x5 `8 L
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 H$ C& K+ I l% m8 G& X* `6 u
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) S R9 K: {' k
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) _) R# _% I+ [1 k ' `! u- K% t# A4 p' |7 k: T3 S( a1 X# JA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - F5 _! A* F* v" q: D- E5 T0 u8 e1 o% O8 ]
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - }- P" E& ]8 L6 F( d( P5 |# H; r/ x' N& `& a" a3 c
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 i5 {* x2 v* R% U3 F% h
0 e9 ]) g/ f, ?' D9 w$ ?Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 R1 B! J& M, i1 M9 g( X
$ B: K9 [# G0 H& ?# w; `% P3 uFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % G1 T% e9 s* K C# E2 c4 y/ g2 w1 `& R
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 n! }$ {8 _6 s0 z. ?3 L( |5 B 2 Q) q K* P3 m1 D"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 i6 B4 r+ P& _8 [% f0 J
2 ]3 h/ r6 k( N0 e4 n% d |* RIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : N: @: M5 d7 g1 K9 D
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & D4 W3 U1 U) o+ y5 O) x: s4 Y
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : p2 ?0 Q3 L5 Z/ J; m' ~
: P( M! T# r9 Y% xUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 t! H/ h& z2 D3 B; l, z
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 B8 d/ A) z# [! h X% J
4 u6 Y/ H/ Z8 y: w8 @- s5 l( {- PIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 j* v3 p, i' j& \/ C3 @
. M$ F" Y" R1 ~. Z uInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . x \0 ^, ?/ ^, l$ f) w* D7 ]9 ^7 Y, S6 M3 c8 @
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & G. Q) j* P2 I) X& {/ D" `
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " O* k7 U) b+ s6 h3 v! R, f0 v
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
