外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年6 W$ `- I v* g0 p+ E# j
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 + o2 G, Z5 g/ ` % C6 @, p$ }1 @8 r) i 0 x m. v7 t' x4 E) ]/ @' O( K% G
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 / [' L2 G" c W# U& A" Q) {+ s# E9 a- }. t! D
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # }, w6 W r' s) w0 [ " \% F) B* t1 K% m+ f# k5 k9 t3 L 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。- K" {- D8 S7 d7 ~7 |3 Z+ F
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。. v& A4 U; Y' t
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 1 J) @9 F/ W6 K# d9 k 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 2 X& p, t5 a% q. {/ Q$ K# e4 f5 Q1 F
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。6 i' k8 x/ Z2 g% l; @ o
$ V# g5 X9 C) ~+ }（责任编辑：杨海洋） & @) ~; m" P* W2 r4 x & W2 N; v3 C( e6 Q% @6 gRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters . K2 Y* r3 A1 U/ p" W9 R' ^1 P 2 D+ ]: g1 H# oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( e9 [8 R; c' t7 G/ P: ^( |7 Q 7 |* W1 ~8 Z# T4 S; @- Y% A# oA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 w; j* S5 A* `7 Y; z5 s( B
0 T( j8 Y2 l3 n) zLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - @4 \- N/ W) c; M
9 j. a/ X' ?8 D" z5 S, M' XAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 \5 N1 q1 L& S+ z5 R8 Q
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 }6 H+ a2 W" i4 F6 W4 C6 X- d( D" k. s q
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / ~" m2 S2 ^6 r) e
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 c8 |# t' [+ q8 ]# P7 Z/ A/ q
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! n/ u) T2 E' q9 S6 Q5 w, w* s1 ^
9 |0 e0 @9 A% xIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % A, B* I5 t8 @9 P0 N 2 b5 o# c* g L$ y j% nGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - n+ _* i" I% N! ^* j 8 f! w0 J2 d& VThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! L9 ^4 l! w) Q
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 {% a4 |. S% Z8 G5 i; X& i / M4 z: r* l, L8 NChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 D9 J) s1 I0 P. N. `. ^
4 i4 R$ E4 Q# y3 d* B1 m$ bIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( F9 V) p: W1 `$ o5 u8 |0 a! c 0 I. d% n- g0 Z; y" Y9 Z) S6 ZInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - t- G- m3 W, D) B( A# w& Y- U0 R4 ?% ?5 t5 O1 f
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! T7 r! h; s: V" f: a: C
% P; u5 G" ]7 q E! XGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) S# R& U8 \- X/ G) [$ z 3 B; b, x1 \5 Q4 q, ]Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
