7 O9 R# [8 D/ A! m+ c/ v- Y 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。& b! F; M4 k7 g& j! ~
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 " D2 f) e" `( B* j9 j 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 $ R7 k$ a1 u# V0 S$ t: U | r, p# n4 U2 W7 C 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。; M' D" m9 @. S4 Q6 s/ n0 k
5 w3 K- w/ g+ m （责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 P9 [: k( u. X' s8 O - Q$ R; Q! m0 f9 E: M$ D1 FRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters & p" d( h% }4 E4 E: |/ C! F h0 q( ^( F, I* q+ M( D2 [BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & [& k7 l2 ~- P0 v; |+ `* K* |
$ @) q+ c' D, E8 oA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - S, L# p, E5 x, t 8 \" @& S/ y! G+ C& o8 ^$ w- ]Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) m# \3 {7 M% g/ q2 b6 x7 b
, Z0 z9 x5 P- CAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ f1 R, Z* Y; ] G! h
" X) y+ l1 t: {Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / d3 |( e% J3 O9 Q# q1 J" m: n! z X/ m- I9 i% F$ A; ^0 | r ~9 cFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ~# n+ B+ L8 |! C8 y
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / b5 F b+ P. ~4 ?9 D$ {
7 V$ E; }- z$ D1 e"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 ^7 b& e: \0 B : i; G4 J+ e4 p1 B" CIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. U3 J: S( S; M/ I1 S8 J 7 c1 ^8 ]: t+ OGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 a% e7 E; ~8 Q: U. u9 S" ]
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - U/ j: n/ o5 L) u( ?% \
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : T% U8 E. ^8 I# g* y# x. {) D* p* ]7 ]* G2 I: N
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , f1 m1 g K2 k0 T. m6 L- E" T8 C/ L! u* {- T' `: @& `/ Q
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 y9 r! N3 b+ | , n4 T0 ], n! b a( ?( uInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / O0 o& u S* Z: J5 S
4 N* p0 ~( p& i1 H9 _"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # m; f* y! p# U' c' S # S" D: }; u( ^2 @Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 n5 q( g1 [8 s) y. V3 z$ O
