外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, P0 f. y# |' l9 s
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ( R3 C+ j, X4 {% U- s" }; s/ E 9 u+ c5 w& F& o, M# {2 U6 O/ u $ B5 B+ M0 Y6 I% M8 M
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 N5 i6 ~% A# j" \2 t
% s' V0 u0 K+ x) }. D 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 - A( f. Z! F$ ?' L1 b$ ?6 g+ h% u! k) W4 h; h
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。, J+ m8 d* o! p$ w' c+ W7 Y0 }! E
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 2 d* k( E0 x# j: p* n + E' p/ l4 Z9 h9 K 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 : f3 ]1 D! f! v: p8 A$ g7 K+ e 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。8 o' n0 }8 d$ t5 p
% ?* M' {) s+ ?. r. x 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " }$ }) D6 z4 j0 m' f / t: Q# X! `' l: D（责任编辑：杨海洋）8 t0 w. j( o+ v* V/ J4 z
9 |& _* j0 B; r' a' sRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 D& B4 w+ A7 t7 x8 J: [
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! c! s7 ~3 y1 d/ Q) N, w' v : }/ [5 T% }8 dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 W4 }+ [. |, X8 V& Q : }/ j9 J( Q% T0 S0 [Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " m* [- R: B a6 T5 e# p8 y7 c5 D4 v$ b+ A4 x
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 v( [3 K( z7 V( ~* i/ @ 8 A5 R, M( v/ FRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 v# o/ l% r* f0 m: z$ h6 }( `
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. & p; Y9 V" j4 T" I. o
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " `) M1 u& k5 e9 ?& ?7 t4 A % h9 M4 @9 g' e9 P( u"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. v) d% k& _/ E; O* c+ a ; |8 z2 y4 n: G6 J- |In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 k! I1 R+ ?; U1 y2 S- ` y8 l
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 Q v' B# i/ u5 [/ B, H, t
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 J& A# M1 U$ t8 p! T5 y$ J# e
1 T1 _8 l* x* c8 ]& O$ V" F& lUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! }+ G' {( a2 q& {1 W ]4 ^2 h$ R/ @: ^; h* ]1 J9 k
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * ^. ^' F' D8 ]4 D* E; X' @ & U" N D, \ s' Q. ~$ l4 U/ jIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . K) a1 J/ ~' H; P" u
# } H+ n e6 @, z3 A7 B% }3 j6 w/ {International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * | J# F5 F2 g# v7 v% |( I
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 l4 l5 O& I( h) w7 }' n9 c" `( H$ M, P$ {
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 t ^; q* a6 y0 B! v$ v
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
