外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 k- a. x& Z6 q1 q- |
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 5 `( m) V7 L: i. J" e1 m$ {1 u z * c8 W& K# T8 L % X; I: r0 } ~, X9 C7 e* v
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。; [8 Y+ [3 J; \7 T& h; K6 M8 h
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。# S9 b+ O! {* k, |+ g
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& Q1 e2 F+ [4 r& l
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ( G/ N, ?! e' h3 l* ]) c! ~/ z; w) q0 T. D& L* O
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。5 m: F8 l* n% _, M
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 # E& i# W1 g2 i$ I* m9 {1 K) L! U' X" c' f3 Z$ V. D: l$ Z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / X( S7 [" E/ o7 d0 @ # e9 C1 B. r5 z. ~（责任编辑：杨海洋） , _, p/ l5 Z2 Y5 |/ N4 H" k( ~1 z* ]5 h5 E/ O. D+ l" I
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters - C! E! N5 W) P; r9 f" C% N3 ?8 I/ }- U2 f$ T3 ]3 Q" f6 t" o B' `
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * V- _5 L N9 u8 s1 T # F2 J$ b! K+ y1 \A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + W, |% }; I- E6 R$ ]& }
$ I3 z( z3 Y& `+ s9 {, i* M* l2 B! dLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & U% t6 O6 L. q; S' W. S
2 f. \& ` |% c+ ]After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 x- M' _! p: F2 G1 z9 i* w' K; J) v9 p) |* N
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 L* a' z* O: ?- E. X+ X7 Z& U0 g9 F3 d9 R' y* C1 q& ^( S1 Z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # w1 b G& P) `1 ?& J' P0 L$ j9 ]- O/ H/ f) ?
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 i( p0 ~ c' S0 J! V1 M* O* v$ r( n
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 Y' N6 l8 _* u, f# L3 g8 Z" ^+ L8 L, h
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( s- ]( u0 H4 q7 s' L2 R' [1 e# J& K$ y }" V
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 f3 w4 @6 c \1 |8 M; X% f# [ U ( Y- ~- ?+ J7 xThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 ?- Q, {3 n: B1 ~ 9 R0 D' I- h/ F& x( V2 r/ P! ^" mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ; B8 m8 O y- T! }
X1 _0 R* R/ cChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! o2 v. d9 p6 {6 \& @- q; M; T4 y0 ^/ D- {+ y
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * I/ h: F9 W7 O" M. N. F7 H
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) C1 C4 |; Y! ~9 P, q; @
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; `5 o) N! {4 Z) |( ~' U
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 a0 @# ~; k' z7 {' g+ W$ v 3 w \, h6 j# n3 S) ^Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
