外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年% N% v; U; y2 z0 L T2 S0 M
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 & W: |6 F- v: e$ g7 y/ v; K- a" ~ 2 O4 N. l7 _" m! p' i& ]+ z' Q 4 ^) A! I; Z" [: |* ?& K中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ; L I8 t& ]- ?+ j3 {+ j8 l/ N, @! A. w* C2 u/ a1 }* p R' R
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 7 S2 O3 `' \" W D& M4 e; l3 \' E' H8 J3 G5 W, z1 {
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。9 C, O2 c- V% L) U- L
8 O0 Z2 Y3 R7 [( ]/ w4 ] 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 2 O7 S }" N2 \' _9 ?1 ?5 I& ^3 e( p0 T- i" b
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。/ O: R# V. N# Y; V* S. c& @
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 % }# y. q1 U4 K/ A: D . i, y4 k& u: H6 p Y1 c n v 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 p! u6 M# Q! w- h5 o7 s' b) s# q, c! F w6 |( [+ T （责任编辑：杨海洋）+ \% R/ g8 Y3 c. C2 B
5 ^% I$ j; }4 R7 NRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters6 ]7 M( {% a: |6 Z- }
( m; U+ Q% @$ p" L( CBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " d) b5 R. {% `% y. d ^* J6 S) I
( I) W$ A) p1 ]' L l5 {& \' wA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 j A: w. u, @% A * h x' V. R" z2 v5 \ wLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( k- }5 w3 m& J0 d2 d8 S
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! q) U+ p" N1 \# f6 v. X: i, k4 ]" N
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : Y! a% }, V/ V' k! v3 ~9 X
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 j* ~8 a% |- t& b0 W& `
4 N7 K7 b/ D" a8 a3 _# M0 q+ `4 U7 _This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % M0 G$ i, g: _, q) s( G& }! _' p- g
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 @$ V0 {& a g8 c8 B5 k, m6 M5 s9 ]# d( T6 Z7 `
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : y2 q" ]2 k3 Y7 h* g
8 ?) C3 I3 Z) f' M) RGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; F" r5 D' ]$ H4 T4 z; Q
! ~% s- ?& ~1 q! }! ?That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 s# q: `' m+ w) s, N/ t
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 C# N+ C( O, i7 c% c2 \
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 W9 ], {4 P- e# l, v9 R
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 C4 C# k2 ^: c8 L4 |, Q! U
+ @# ~' S. q! a" iInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! B1 [ y3 y+ Y* O9 r' }# P # @3 o& K+ J F"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 ?0 N* u$ V C7 b% X
' h( X5 ^2 \& o: V* |9 RGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . d% L6 R) f G! P! B/ F$ }0 }* V9 N* d( g3 V" d7 x
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
