外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 8 r* E, ~' ^: ]! N4 Y/ [2 N( j2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 * l2 S8 i: f' k( p" B/ i1 t, a$ S* e% S+ g
4 c/ L1 {0 b- t+ t中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 6 ^! N+ W w. @$ B% ~- z/ Z3 `2 K: S/ a
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 9 c4 w; v* d' [3 k0 p# T ; q2 N9 z" z) V' ~! Q3 X+ Y; y 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。% f$ l5 b) i0 v% d, d- F
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' G3 r$ Z# G! M , |2 }; I# u2 l: Z9 X& \2 z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 [' a; |% n/ Z) Z5 K8 f# x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。% L$ i$ A( @8 T* o
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 `: p+ \4 p/ N7 l9 F
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 I0 c- x+ o' b _5 P8 E: t( b+ b & _/ r# e1 L9 Y3 C, Y1 ?8 [ uBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 O% p, F1 [0 B) k1 ?: i 9 Z7 _9 `/ k3 V# E4 E6 y2 c7 XA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & O# ?0 f+ d2 \) I" N' }
7 Z* ]/ Q, E0 b3 k2 h8 O+ q$ ^Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 t+ D% g. U' F! ] [/ v6 M * S; ?" T9 t7 k9 @After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 y* Z, k, u0 ~; h3 h; i/ K$ q' b: F. K. o2 P, v" N
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. z- l+ G' r" B; r% \4 I5 D
) |8 u" P# X1 fFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 T; Z' N& W( A% S* N2 z4 c7 W: \& Q% L1 V9 R7 @" r; \% x
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 E3 F5 M: _' v( p/ N5 \. r , e, H4 t8 P) {6 \$ z3 J- f"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . ]# Q. g' s5 G" }; O) |& q7 B2 a0 R
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 I( w" w# Z3 E; h: p+ j4 M: D2 X& s/ {+ e$ J, A4 ~! V |
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # B# Z- C% K" }* E
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' p8 ~; ^5 Q7 N" A
. b9 ]7 R7 ]1 a7 `! n* q& SUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' y& M1 f7 L+ c" R
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & D9 x1 p% C& v3 u8 P% n0 }7 y3 _+ v! t* @! Z
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , C: ~9 B$ W5 G. m1 }; s( f) `/ L" U1 ?5 u3 ?
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' j3 J- ?$ z1 i# O" H
6 \2 V. Z. W/ D"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 w% [3 @8 o2 h/ U9 ~' B4 L+ F4 W: p# C
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( |( g/ i* Q0 k5 K3 ?+ x
