外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 8 @8 l7 n( A. z. j) ^2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞4 ?& _/ J/ E0 z! B. {6 Y& o
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。: L4 P* E5 M1 i _ C6 c
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- N5 k' D9 c# H: c2 u
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 : ]! E1 {0 o* y0 B; F3 Y% Z0 d+ L+ `& l% m Q; I; w
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' Q" X1 |/ W% X, u- k1 n1 r
1 s' s' {# \! i: |8 z& f* o W 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 / P/ y( O5 I$ o* W. m9 R 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。0 ^0 ]: e j/ t( o9 j0 {4 d
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。1 R$ f2 z7 X9 m
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ' @8 J" I9 m" @( B3 j0 M+ T/ Y$ O1 d/ N5 x* c
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! Y3 m* Y' b' U$ Z$ O2 j( l+ Q+ v4 \2 T+ A$ H
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : w7 R( Q8 A7 q d9 V# k/ e9 X$ j; W 7 s7 B9 h' e8 O/ qLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + {* Z$ d8 n' @* R
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , g& k( i, I$ L * c m; {+ k1 G: C. [Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) s; m j ^4 P/ k0 ^8 ^2 R3 |* ?' Z) m3 L& b2 f
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - Y& ?5 o' k4 X/ B; l: s
! J4 F% l; L' {# N; hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 O/ S3 r$ N% j7 g- S) j
+ a9 D1 h7 A& z% A1 H& k! x2 j"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # g: @& G2 l9 D! `
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; c: l6 p, ?0 D) Z$ s
4 p6 q6 U& c/ A6 |5 O& ~ o' Q% FGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + M4 J' H' w( Z* Q0 o0 m0 W( ]4 N, N# a6 f2 `/ E( b* H
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! \9 S6 k" g' Y% o6 e2 O; P, {
5 I& Q1 \. n9 m& j4 t' x6 ~Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 u' ]6 D7 D. v7 ?% H0 K+ A" S+ U/ n" j ]4 s
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 ~3 ^0 ]: }' z* ]' z9 l& V, i6 P$ j$ L1 O' v, X
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 w- o; d$ D; e8 K4 E ( A* \7 A, ]" E* pInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - D* @& ]. \7 g/ z; K5 L4 D7 Y: _6 y% z3 |( W2 K
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! `4 @- ?7 ?4 O4 m$ g
5 x/ h5 {( n. d s7 p! R# }Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " Z* w5 p) i0 Y" [ / F0 ^4 E( ]& dThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
