/ g2 W% |. F# k7 o( i; [ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。2 g5 i( [: {7 p- s. _
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 " @7 c2 i2 Y! [$ i; A, ?5 f' U* \9 v3 ]8 q% Y, ?3 i& C
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 W; f" y. o4 N' t D7 I
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 ?2 L) J) j7 \' P2 K9 V- B, m/ l" M 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 / m0 a' q4 x2 G( w0 C/ w% p/ E' ^6 P6 Q V, A
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% B& o. P" U. K: }0 w, l
: f8 R/ d+ o- C |( ?2 z （责任编辑：杨海洋） + |: p) e! |7 ~4 ~ 2 H+ U0 d6 i$ e) E3 Z& IRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters % u& _4 e- H. e8 z4 l6 n 4 E8 h, U( y. h" z; MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! S7 L, w3 N9 _! T2 A l
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 H9 a j, N0 t3 I) h, I ; Z: d& l+ x4 s' x4 A# U9 |Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - H# O& f- Q& u2 t9 P0 z6 @: p9 {! O8 H$ K
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : m+ L' C% B e4 K* p ! F& Q" [) S* o: U/ |Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / a2 j' z1 j! i, H- ? # b" S, H2 Y: L& G4 gFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * P' z- a5 r% ]# _ C4 V
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 Y3 O( z! k! S% r/ J
. I; v& _: W' V"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . @$ [: U$ f% o1 Z/ N" b # x; y6 K4 O' a1 z# oIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! A1 g/ V/ t$ H1 p/ e/ i# X
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / w8 I. @; K% C/ k7 [* l: V/ T8 A ; x: `% G) J5 d. u, b% `) Z9 y" jThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 H/ U9 M$ a+ u" b. E+ s& @
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( V! Q0 }! A4 ]5 v: _% [' }$ {
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / ~* S7 }$ F. p- I) [4 A8 A) x" z U* B8 G. K* |: G# A- E$ G
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. I' v' X4 ~ H2 W
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( i# d' l4 c( m2 ], s : I1 E; I: d- J( V"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 Q- C( z b: K# m 8 c+ D1 Z) d5 E7 s4 a/ B7 [Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 t" B7 x0 T' F# O0 v
