外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年1 k3 v$ l4 k& c* B7 q, U
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ) n) E0 G6 Z) a6 Q& c/ \9 [$ _4 N; _: i- C E4 @
! ^; @8 T3 Q0 S- E* E k中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 Q t! j0 N' U# ?# a( m7 U * ~8 Y. b8 G p% B 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 & m$ D/ s/ J' r1 C% s8 _6 b! M. Z+ v8 [
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。. S; B8 t' W \
8 ?6 I" G& P' p6 c4 [ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。+ b& k5 n Q5 u
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! U. D& H4 ]$ ]8 L* N
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 , z5 u7 L( u! r8 p) g- P: y- f5 r( M( B1 ]6 v) l
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。6 h9 f) M0 a1 y6 |8 z+ U& R; c
' ~8 b1 P+ Z! }7 M' X （责任编辑：杨海洋）* P7 r" s: P* d7 ]" `- \4 c
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 A( P. m4 e( G# c0 E: ]5 b
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. {) g7 \; h8 t$ R. T & W4 T5 a6 a, AA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ) |' ^; K: I5 D3 h! `6 K) s7 R
5 f+ d6 |- c# F( j- LLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 L3 G2 r2 k5 k" B" H2 I! o
8 p8 g" ]: L0 w! nAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 ?$ M5 N& }' M4 ~( q+ V$ |0 D0 \& }
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + k! b' |0 ` V( g6 C, N$ B1 A
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . Y8 n1 z/ l$ Y/ Y7 j) Q Q+ {5 A 6 t2 ?8 |& S5 s) D2 LThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. + h& F1 {1 p+ `# b: S$ @% f5 h( ~9 Y; [+ N% L4 x
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " s, }8 T' }( z& h1 n
' n0 o( l/ X4 y* n, D+ W, o7 kIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 p0 M' `5 ]- N7 b1 u
+ W$ E4 v' f' O- |/ zGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ {( y" {/ I( h2 d4 v1 q" H/ R D; i+ U
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / d9 i- \8 o' m; q/ l( G( f6 m1 Z7 H0 H! p$ F Q" ~- A" d
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( M! G$ o/ {3 |5 V7 a/ U. W: m U5 R' ~3 w+ N
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , {( g( z9 J+ O: ~% G% n
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! e! [3 @/ `! T/ g( F
/ j6 F4 T( Q T4 H2 }International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & V- ]; t E, P( u% |+ [3 X 5 n' @5 ]3 ?0 {"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 R5 f( I, F- G! N* k3 @/ h % k: C, m5 B: q% n7 F7 v- {Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + _9 s J) l9 Q+ ~2 w; E
; g: \* R8 T, q# ?1 n9 R. cThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
