外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 $ H+ H" b: J+ F; V8 d% g* e, w! P2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 7 a/ q3 M2 J& Z0 @" @" g4 J! j- T/ x9 o3 t6 k2 x D( f
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。! s5 V& I$ d# z" J {- q6 X
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。/ J9 b8 o) Z0 P$ h8 C: d/ O7 N
2 I8 v9 A- `* V) J- Z 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 w" T: B0 h, L* {5 h" U1 b- E
! W9 W ~; p: A* D5 w. W- c7 R# } 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 u9 ~) ]/ ^) C* [! S' z/ y - y* W& Q- f8 o2 d& | X 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。+ @& I8 M; h: X4 R& z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 k: w& P8 v' v, B) h: {$ Q; _ - O/ c4 Z" u6 h 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 . [3 L5 G2 G6 `/ C( H, t$ r2 O+ {% O （责任编辑：杨海洋）1 g- C* K5 s+ y& J! r$ t; |7 K5 g
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters$ D8 W4 X5 r, O1 w, f
% j; F- Y9 q) S7 G, L" g5 G& p8 ^BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * R% \" V* c! B3 w ' N0 s5 x4 b3 h' \: Z; l( @A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' n5 k$ v% r v8 \/ u
5 K5 ]0 A- l2 e' B) aLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - X$ r8 b9 D: P3 E* c, r/ f8 w
; R8 D( ^ C, @3 m' H- s2 RAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' e1 e, G# ~7 d5 a& Y5 x
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' C' S# L0 u5 e8 _+ ^. _
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; Y# @) B# `' r% T& [5 i8 j' n, X- \) [3 p
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # ]9 c7 z) W8 M3 L ; l8 w E. c2 {: X- C2 [3 T3 d1 W: k"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % _' d/ f" C e! Y9 l# I! ~ & [: D- o6 t4 X: v9 c; U7 E+ MIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : z' r+ _% B; _9 \8 U0 b0 U4 d" c. B1 t+ J9 x* f; q
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 a& y7 f$ `9 l$ n2 h8 m : ]- e: {# {4 L- U9 P( r. eThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 S4 N0 O. \; F/ K. w5 W$ v4 N3 K% S+ r# b4 e" _9 M
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Z4 N, y& r5 I6 M ( { C! K" ~0 C: q" m2 bChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! c3 t$ M& D6 d% ^! O
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & Z+ @/ B* _0 v. I) ~7 i ; s) I3 z% [2 O) _International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # E; z+ }6 g( h! n6 x; ?9 ?
! u+ g6 r, X& ?3 `8 A, U3 `"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : O: S' V' g7 ]. o3 j- v1 q5 K1 S, O
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : c. @: i# |6 F6 k5 c7 A0 R* |5 @" Y( q
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
