外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 a; v1 H( E, Y! [& m
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 + C( v0 r3 S! D0 p: K% Y e& f, C# n3 R" u& q8 z* ~4 p& A, }6 x9 M
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。. }9 W0 e# G0 a
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ! I8 E+ o; H1 r/ j$ t2 Z I - n7 D. \' d( k/ g6 e6 N9 b( y 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ! E6 N) P: d( I* v; X % d5 @9 u# I1 _ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 * ]9 [4 o; j! J y6 z! J' t! V! @) I. j7 D4 j
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。0 ^) o% Y; ~. T& Y2 J
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - B; z0 G. \/ f& x8 G0 y4 z7 w! v _9 r! \# u. t) E
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 & T1 { N$ {) L' V5 z/ \4 q 8 J" D( x, B$ N（责任编辑：杨海洋） ! I, e) k/ y: O/ ^1 c & m/ @, P" e$ g! [1 P" o; fRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 c4 ]5 t% p' I' r$ u0 J + c" s- {' o# K8 b! h' c: vBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . }2 m7 w1 s9 H7 e
# s8 s1 s8 e' P( F2 l- b1 h1 ^. jA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 o, V% Y9 F7 o 9 o. J. ~5 W/ |/ D9 JLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 }+ p- ~" R- w1 V9 Z+ Z/ v# F& P# t# j8 b6 I- k. C% h, `& ^9 h
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 B( f2 Z; X0 x# S" Y
. i" y. @8 v c0 dRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 P/ y# a+ M: _; T/ Q % m# \: s+ z) V* \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! E, P3 f& `( a) i$ J7 m& Y9 z
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( T+ t, X' B# b' C4 ^& K% S
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 Z( M, J3 L2 ?5 ]0 _; C2 W 0 g0 j5 i# ^& ^- E. @& H/ DIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 c- [# P; x& ^: Z/ S0 z- L, o! C+ T( z N# x4 m2 ] B
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ B K$ L* E2 R" r: J, E7 y$ f8 Y) u: n
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " O9 \/ Y# A+ z: H a, I. C$ v
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 }! R& L- ?* F
: a8 y+ m ^6 z- P0 H: |* e* ~China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ P2 Y: A7 ~2 S) _& I+ j* t2 V
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. N2 h9 Z' j: D! q \8 I' N ! d9 L% b, Q: Y; ^# m3 H XInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + M4 p' U$ l* ]% F; o! J. s5 B: a1 R. H& }$ U' X; e( m% o
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / x' X9 g- H+ t4 k0 T& H2 U
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % T) r) n1 B7 ?' ^5 ~# x8 Z
, @ ~% Y+ N' y" l6 O% L. `Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
