外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 " J- ^6 X# s9 f, g7 G+ m) j9 q2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 8 B' @, z* x" `$ J 7 P' `/ v" e7 g7 o2 ?& N * p9 D, D6 ^3 A' ]. y% F' f6 n
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 Z0 ]& j4 _! r Y+ W5 x# s
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 5 ? j2 \, V) I% d5 j6 U4 E; I( ^0 {7 B) z
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。6 M$ D3 V; S1 Y. _( c
: \) a, j6 x' p& k! }% D 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 i4 Y+ a6 w5 F1 b g+ H " q" h' E+ R2 M# [ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 V1 D* M2 `! T, j" ]) m 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ' p& P0 r4 F9 V2 F' P! {) t$ \7 S9 G. z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 L. C: {( N9 f3 A: w) s7 u; `" W' Y# \ （责任编辑：杨海洋）6 J2 |" q+ A3 h3 ~+ _* f1 {
$ G( m7 g; X9 @ I! eRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 u% d$ `; ]7 R& A# C4 c, u0 A' k+ ]9 E* m4 M3 [3 B' U5 Z ^
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 o |; Y+ W) c" d' _' ` 8 \2 [4 V, O' H4 F) N, G) r1 JA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % b8 N& [, p" b( T2 C; K2 B. A% @ : h @, P8 C, L' z) O: iLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " R! l( R4 N: q# z
0 \# K% }: Q( ^; j# Z |! ?After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! p: W' W8 y4 ]4 X m5 t4 J* d- U8 K
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) L, d9 e2 I( D. f* N/ e( x& N
0 B; y& G- A; ?& u. jFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; }- x3 K. U8 u! M( F, j; w3 P# ~3 V B2 O
6 E% H0 A; K/ q7 p6 y1 M0 sThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . E8 n. N6 V! C ?8 x) z
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 f1 I* P: F, W F( x( d' y) [In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + i @& R7 O1 C, k+ g- W5 r x& Z. h2 t# C" L
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. s {; ^. n, D9 x3 T1 J# v0 b. K" q4 k ^3 `1 g# w: S6 a& ? U, c
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 w, M& ?9 e) y- ^! T, r 8 R: \( r \, B3 }, d6 f2 kUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 X T# X5 L, X, N( N& b/ w* G- a5 f- V! {0 T4 q- |
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & {7 v/ n. K3 T+ A + z$ F3 T5 N5 EIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 E* W& {7 y/ J+ O. \& K# v' j( D+ Q
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 A+ h1 J0 i/ I4 s/ d- k, t
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 L- J' e. O8 S
2 B2 @$ \0 I* V+ E' i% rGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * e9 J2 m$ ^/ q! W1 ?
! C C: G- z: y3 r0 [' mThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
