外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年+ H. g; q2 N7 X7 @* G3 Q
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 # u: {' }9 ^- H+ H4 B4 i/ L# N4 l0 N ; @" {4 V+ w6 i/ w M: z+ f 5 v; M+ B: f. u) G" d1 F: f
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 8 M2 W' y+ J1 N! J . @: ^/ z* d% s1 v+ b4 A 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 8 g1 `1 N# Z! e* O2 ^1 I# {$ |& L& _; \. {* g: G9 p6 I
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 C- p% H6 y. q |6 W6 U t
5 F, V9 a) K m6 _9 a j 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。7 A3 k T$ z5 J5 y
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 8 [1 O; G9 v& t$ @2 i 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 $ G5 V5 B- Y. G% k- @& y# Z$ @- e* }6 _' f) l2 t# q7 \5 W" J9 o
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ H0 z: e4 ]; ~8 T2 i
" Z6 f* X% n4 ~9 j3 S4 v （责任编辑：杨海洋）2 f. M2 h7 F) d. Y/ y# ?0 f0 u% E: W. N
1 \. \/ V) |; wRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ y6 t6 I( k- {/ {" T
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # x6 P3 a$ @5 Y* s+ h
8 J# m3 v; d8 w7 P+ dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + _1 y# H- O8 a" {* j 8 E2 @- G& o( }$ { b, QLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 \9 Z5 n. J. \% z% Y; P- c$ j* v7 ~
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; F( p, b' S: q$ `! M
; g* J% |; E* M& {5 rRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! t8 }: {" s3 H. }3 @* w/ Z8 ?4 F" Q$ e# S9 p. }
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; }% `$ o6 d1 t6 y* ] z4 g& X6 |# b( f% J9 ?4 y9 t8 I: k0 R) G
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; B& ^. v; j/ Z# Z7 O4 c
: `+ o+ B T- l6 A"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 d) [* ]8 N8 l# `3 F: w4 j. R+ ]5 u
- [' m; F+ S( H. B) U8 O2 w' @ eIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : t) C3 m6 C- q4 \( Y ^# }* ^* Q3 _: M1 s( F6 P, H6 D
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 [) [! \2 A# q7 `# P) x! K# ^( r. z 0 _! I. c4 g0 y' \/ e/ G. }That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) X1 s2 J! v5 C2 o3 D, {
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' t' {4 U" m, `3 u2 k' Q8 f
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". k: g+ V1 A* V$ t7 @) s
% w! Y/ A, R5 |6 Y# q) CIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 k$ h. J; p4 j. U
' O) u7 G/ F# \" k+ V& W, JInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 o1 U. D0 z; v' P! s
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. s6 N p' P) D- B- G0 u( T
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 j- |# }5 V# Z" |9 i! v* s8 p
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
