外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 6 C' k/ W* n G" b2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞8 |( s% J3 q: V8 U" r
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。# o2 l/ m, m0 t+ _+ y6 b8 D
. W! v* b: w0 a( j 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。8 Y9 n4 H0 W' r9 H- |+ ~
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。1 D5 H- K5 x- ]5 G8 ]$ v9 _0 y9 \" }8 l! s
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 . X/ b% `, g6 L9 K2 l2 L$ j& J# R, c
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 c+ }, D1 X) y/ W3 u5 T2 `; a8 S 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。* O) d z+ u7 \0 e6 d
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 N% K) |. A! o! `( _& q. f" D9 f4 j/ s @9 P& O （责任编辑：杨海洋）4 z7 k: d9 w3 c5 c/ y) C* T) Z# u
* I% W) @# x4 O. D9 b( V9 jRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 3 B) G/ B, |2 I! i ) {# I! H3 V5 W; w2 MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ~9 I$ W) X. P% V0 P# O& f 5 I: \( P5 ]4 j' j0 l. S8 {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # Z& _/ X* J+ J' N2 T
6 J P2 k- B% XLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # n- @5 K$ X0 X3 D' P% W
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( H; h' ^' W& p7 f; V9 d/ y+ Z4 z* [+ f" g- `; D4 f H
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # r7 ^- G; v2 y. }8 z
% n/ R9 X; k, F0 PFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - A( n* w9 N) G+ ?, r
' g+ a. v! `6 Y/ {" k( i- ~" ZThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. F \* I" k' y( X0 h( a3 U ! S; L- }9 O/ c"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 {# P# [* W( c# X O- Z
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & o0 G3 v$ e) p$ H M! _; D+ L p" N5 X6 [3 Y! _/ w2 V* Q8 b
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 A0 Q/ ~0 r% E" A6 o) s% o% @4 o/ V$ Z9 b$ m
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # L4 k; p7 ~, v k) ], }. ]8 J+ K6 k! ^ w& P8 w8 O7 m
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + ?; G0 C i9 L
- K/ a' d/ B& U& c( yChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 w m9 {7 a) r0 t3 }. C! O
) s P% b- m- J* T; i+ vIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ A5 r1 J- m+ c' `$ U) T* E" v
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , P; F& h+ t! o8 i- ?0 S' j4 ]
# O* y- l7 A! j4 y7 G4 E"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & i& `6 O* P! w) _' R ( A/ w8 v4 ?; Y% P" ]) p9 kGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # N( K& Y* F# M1 x* b' a9 j! m5 u l% V, g% R
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
