外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年* B. M1 G* d9 b
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 7 H+ w- | w, P N% r9 ^- Y* t c6 R1 l- y
7 A" j x. \- I4 x" Y中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。$ P$ z k4 ?+ Z) k- v6 o2 z" Y
% n/ @" y0 G; Q& { 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。; L. p* F9 r* o
/ U) N' D- K' o9 k/ ] 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。( ~" m0 U3 v4 k& _5 Y% ~2 ^
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 0 k. e. t% d3 Z# d/ r/ d% Y. `8 o7 U z2 ?# ^4 K7 \
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( o( w5 J# t7 I* N( r) U 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。* h4 j) Z+ B4 \9 G: w
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% H" {9 Q0 H9 A7 q! E7 S
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters % }+ G V; i" K* \4 J6 y" S0 S8 S' b0 A
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 E4 ? O: O% W5 U1 R" ]. r6 K! M) R9 R
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - u. @- r/ L& u' q* w5 v! q - Y% h) O) X* E8 O4 ^Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ F$ K0 w6 K- {
0 K( u8 _6 [9 ~' Q, g4 y" UAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 u2 I5 k8 H+ ^1 V! E! o+ ?- p( v
m1 s; s4 M% c0 a3 G5 WRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + {7 {7 G2 @2 Z
; b6 ?6 L. ^( t8 ~+ ~First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , u& |% i: _( i# t
* w) B8 O8 C2 F/ }3 ^/ sThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 W/ N* e5 H. `. s& _
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : M" [0 U3 l, j
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 {4 `* k9 r: C+ @# l% L
9 B2 P7 j2 H4 q$ j) D9 w) f7 M! ]Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 O/ j5 D8 S7 @- f
9 M* Z1 T; ?7 m6 E+ l0 W2 bThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) n% U/ f3 x- |! X& J* m
4 D; D% u( k' j/ A! [) H; @Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! S/ X+ O$ H( V1 ]1 g
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * w$ `' B' [' E3 z* `4 i ) n3 [/ Y4 S, ^* |6 CIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : } I: y9 _7 Y
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 `+ P% g1 E3 s% R . b' H; O3 b- f2 u" L"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - `9 ~7 ~+ p- X9 ~! k" s2 x# N7 y1 g8 R% {' I9 j
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # e1 L- k0 _3 |: O# a
8 z/ r1 }4 ~5 I, FThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
