外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 6 k _6 o* |. J2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 6 a: i$ M/ y2 s; i7 X ! {, L; I- ~5 n2 @4 x0 n : e( r2 L% a8 s1 J7 j$ w中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。7 m5 j2 @. V, `4 {5 y7 I4 a+ t Y* ^$ a
1 u7 z, R1 r& h3 f( p8 j 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。& B+ j2 j; P% N$ D/ S1 l) f% q
) u5 Y. T" x) n, T
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。: R& ?0 ?8 f# u$ b
& k( I$ r9 J$ t& H 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 g- {5 {: M S$ c9 \1 c * y0 u+ e% Z" U$ H# E( q7 B 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ; l' Y1 X, b. D# j9 q' c) {$ J# u. G4 ~% e 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 3 N w/ e* {4 F7 }0 }; D 1 E1 u) C& B5 M& g) d& T3 O5 ^5 ^ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。- T( A3 h' B( T8 S' V; P
/ r/ i f# a z/ X0 Y7 m （责任编辑：杨海洋） * v' r& }* l- C' t j0 J q4 w; q 8 A2 v8 a- L% P/ Z5 T2 s# RRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters , a' C) w+ U! N- i, k' F) ^ , X* {6 P8 U W9 y5 W, j; l- P3 lBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 @0 ^& v( ^+ I3 Z& r + d" R: M$ Q1 xA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : f5 @% w/ Q& }- Q2 t4 k* l
; ]/ A# {2 U5 c2 p" L6 s% v$ j9 ?Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) k4 j) \- l0 ]9 P/ Y/ x9 ?
' X0 [- ^: j9 D. M. D! r
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 [& l* H" u) G2 _
. @& [7 E7 {. Y9 k
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . }9 `3 R A* q
: J8 ?$ N. a/ f8 }! P' T8 A
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . h; ^; Y) g) [) T
) e, c! J: L, J
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 p& T' Z, y' P' J2 h( ?3 @" Y% i- Q( M' q5 C& J$ L
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) B- Q/ Y6 c! L. m, ? B# L+ s $ G' j! r# }. }6 d# J5 A! f" eIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! d, @, t6 b K- J
; `1 z9 L+ y3 a3 A
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ d; h1 I6 A$ z3 I9 Y1 a , I/ \- f% w: S$ v8 J6 B/ tThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 C/ U1 ~3 Q3 u X. W6 B+ S8 |& b$ q! g( g3 Q
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( b' \ Z9 L9 S4 k9 y% O
4 R# L9 v, f! p5 o# [# I
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 j% N8 r5 m4 s0 H0 O$ z) c4 k. A6 z* Z9 {7 \/ g
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( {. p" \4 h" f) w
; C5 v! K/ g! a5 R8 u+ t7 \
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % k* S9 Y( w# |3 E0 q% O; X1 R/ N8 {# @, i+ S0 u* s( k3 S5 \
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 I4 r. A7 j5 D3 _: u n# }1 d, J& h" {" g4 hGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / |% K5 b7 Y9 P# l8 v! h
% `+ L. S2 x& H6 ?6 y
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
