4 }2 B0 s& u4 X0 M! b* G9 H 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 8 Z$ a$ J: e+ V0 R 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( M3 y M2 d# S5 B0 |8 Z# H0 t& a
% G y% Y. `+ T) ]$ } 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 H; e. g+ P3 |) V # Q1 C; r/ W5 N5 S( U5 \$ y5 K（责任编辑：杨海洋） 9 z$ U( [; R* [ 4 I% }* T- H0 \ oRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters7 e9 S+ X2 D: q& i* K
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * Y3 O6 ?, q0 K# x
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " `$ { W+ C" p q' s& B. o0 h . z' s! Y6 d$ _2 S" @/ l6 |' {0 b" gLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; }0 H7 Z" D. G- Z; d $ q( f) P! q) _) E6 PAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; s# ^( ]: X8 j: y8 G, `8 j & |( I2 _0 ^% U1 b% D" B& _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' U3 H9 e- w, ?( G, Q. C& k- b% L) W1 |; o" X
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + H$ i' p! w9 Z- h
5 a9 x" t4 K. K9 yThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / v7 w; K. y: X9 K2 _
: a7 G0 T- o/ k"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # u. F2 M! Q, t' u. K3 w4 O0 j: `9 f4 X1 f/ {5 B: j
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 ^5 @3 D' D3 N5 v) z; h2 x
- W( T2 j! c( |6 O* j% gGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + b" i. o4 j, a! p! R+ }
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 b7 L8 M# t6 m: T( g
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # K. x5 [5 G5 k* `% P$ Q6 Z
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : K3 J }8 M4 ]) S# @3 ?
O1 y2 J B2 fIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . a7 y3 n: `4 o' Y0 ]; l
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; |0 L1 s2 ]+ ?0 v0 G& C
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 ], A; |6 G6 K- I" W! \ 5 j9 C+ |- J; ?+ |. v" pGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * {0 R. G* L% a) L: `* |- h* s
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
