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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。" j+ ^" x5 r8 `" l6 ]4 L, s
% Q2 {5 O1 q2 R6 d 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 8 C% x! e3 H4 z 7 Y! p8 C1 k/ P; D: g 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 t, \4 \7 R3 V$ M5 |8 A9 v9 d- i ; k/ H. R" w7 {3 B3 q 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。% y8 C3 O6 `$ Z
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ @9 I4 c/ ^3 `0 K 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 e& S7 u3 T) v1 M9 T; ^& T9 O B$ D
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 l/ ^1 J. D- ] Q! t7 [3 z0 z' q
: y+ A5 M5 I A8 @0 \* X$ H （责任编辑：杨海洋） ) K/ F% }. w( \9 n, w# t7 Y0 [7 K6 H# }$ z2 m7 s
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 A3 ^: r3 ~. r' V/ ^% ?- s7 k I3 m$ {; q& D- s0 R' `* C
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! k3 p2 ~" I- _. [6 K7 S4 Y
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * d: k' q! q3 H
+ A& O5 n# Z- q; ^# _* y! a6 JLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( D) h1 Y4 h& q' L: k% Z % C+ F4 l# F( C6 \) O+ N JAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 E1 _/ F$ D% g9 H3 x, v7 } r$ R& ]& N
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - W1 N T" Y/ i- o7 V9 s- V( b2 n1 C% ?1 l7 Y3 h9 p
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 z+ [6 |1 t, L) }* B& g: W9 M7 p $ ]. Z0 N% E4 o7 i/ e& V: iThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! E0 v4 a7 T' {$ k+ J- Z( j1 Q/ M' {0 E. ]; [' `# O
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 U% ]& H; F L5 {7 k2 D 7 e$ x; q6 v, r5 DIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 w- x; q2 p, b; t/ h
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . \0 R' c9 K8 m' w ( T* @3 q* X. {( F" t- l$ [8 E3 RThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 `% ~7 y L' J- w) u
x/ I9 _+ H2 j3 g+ fUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' v4 ?2 z7 L% G* X7 v* F& x& T3 ?3 v: X# Y
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : T" f3 s5 V8 t" \! B C/ x
0 y5 y; j) P1 g y6 k1 x0 R9 ^( LIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 i$ t! w- \( ]: z; ], m3 A6 D0 ^, K0 P
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 H) j5 k4 K) P5 x; ~1 j, t 3 a* K& w. y( l) w5 {"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. y* Y4 A/ c# h3 H
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + z# p4 f' t8 S! a3 @( b! b! k4 h3 W! S) E5 l: O
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
