外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ( M5 o$ ]! P9 K f1 ?* g) Y2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 . e! L$ w' H2 o9 w6 w v- _, g2 R2 S7 ]$ c8 ?. ^9 P
: u+ Q T+ ~7 K中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ! D- v* I' U. n8 W m' G* ?7 j* X4 r6 b& i3 V% o- N# N. W c
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; @* g4 I$ ~! u5 {% s3 V: r% V& I$ h+ O2 F4 {' g; f& z" c
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' y1 s# D' ]8 r# j% R$ n0 d 9 A7 F/ `+ Z5 a. J. { 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( X9 Y. I' {3 W! x$ k
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ x2 u5 d7 z/ Z9 r% D 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 9 Q) {; h3 `9 X* a9 ^6 @ 7 h, k* \; K% j5 d u 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: M$ {, m1 w' f. }$ X
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) J2 q U# v1 w0 u
8 Q5 c/ z7 ]$ z3 gBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( W* Q8 D" F# @1 N2 I" }, K6 T% R8 {2 i$ U# m
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 M( N6 L3 G5 x z " ]$ ~0 v/ x# }4 iLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' T) \2 a: S/ _
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : V" v, [. \0 E% Y S5 K$ i
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! n% j. p8 F7 Y( V# y; G " S$ w- F n7 @9 o! t! r3 B2 N1 zFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " d% {: T, M8 q: P
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. c6 T9 H) l) n3 U1 }6 m6 h+ G0 d4 s8 Z3 K; \$ }% k
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & V" O/ n. i# `
1 }# {' m3 g; K) V W$ gIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " |' T* V) [' q" i* I/ B+ R ' P4 a' [$ E6 e! P3 F) cGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - F. \% y0 R* ~2 Y/ G# |+ Y & G+ I: ?$ K3 r) sThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; z: J+ t. C# i) `* c6 @, R
! ~3 D" r% @5 Z; ?3 U% M# l5 s: bUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # A9 `0 q2 W9 _% O( Y ) O4 x/ g/ K) c/ u7 E: t: tChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - O: ~; _; U; @4 R
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " F ~: \6 h- b5 u) M3 ~/ b& r( i% r' P* [3 |% x8 y
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # o) F+ E6 M6 k" N2 l2 N0 Q 6 O) J3 i7 E8 g) A! m* U. m"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & D9 j! E, w+ c- H
7 j! G5 ~8 r. h( U& v+ |2 M0 QGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; h8 o1 D8 D- F# G
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
