; P' L9 ^3 [: r! G! t1 {: W 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。7 W ~- `2 d' V$ Q" L% H7 j- w! p
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 / B: Q4 E) f- x) B0 d) x8 @$ H; ]' |7 v9 T7 a/ ^% j9 t) n# E) \
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ e3 s) u- l& ^- i4 l
! Q8 X) Q6 u- |1 `5 J% k0 i3 G 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。- i: [0 ?- U. r5 ]( Z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + q. V4 X3 y6 P& Z4 Z% J' f( j! G. o6 D0 G* q. |
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 8 S7 v0 N0 |0 i% M5 |" Q) D$ \" v! W3 L7 g （责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 L7 |. Q( p6 }/ {7 H) t) J5 E* [! b" _" X& X
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters . k0 a: m- [ c% G0 k1 `/ s- f- l8 z5 J3 A. T4 ^
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 `! x5 w4 W7 ]5 P4 ` p0 Y% Z, u % B" d% d) q6 d6 H6 e$ yA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 i5 e1 Y+ z# y: e0 A3 K) Q- }# f6 m$ J
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) j) z" B; o4 z9 Q1 G7 m" S7 q$ G6 t8 m" W' X
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 b2 [* w* g2 u! {$ v# m5 F. `6 V& Q1 ^. P3 Z
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 B0 g/ K9 k) a& |
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # a+ z" U3 x9 A6 F$ {+ `2 m
, i1 u3 e# u- q5 X( j2 p1 sThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) Z$ \( V6 G; H' O, P% f
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : A [; l& p$ L+ j$ L; k/ O% {% C. J: g) A( T7 m2 I% b& ~
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - _2 R1 U0 k7 y* t 1 q% ?6 Q" F/ I; EGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " G* E8 o. c, ~% b4 `( U) p. o, R n
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) V# q A+ Q2 E2 V. [2 m4 q& E: y7 P+ B6 k3 P
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & C. O' K/ Y' X# r- X, j i2 X* u. m! X# Q2 K* ?- z! \9 E
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # [6 F6 F' `# b, }2 r
* e8 a2 J) w# g7 dIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' _ P2 j* u: X: Q4 g8 S$ L * e( m7 R2 m) {2 n! `: FInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; l1 m7 P" U+ H( Y: J8 I# ^# X; m+ C( f1 V) l) _7 Z
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 T& u; W! ?+ F5 h0 b% x7 v9 O* h2 K, n+ g1 ~3 T" C! S8 q M
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) ` i9 |( X/ |3 H6 [$ g9 j& e) ]- [) a9 ~
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
