外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 w# T5 y& y) t% k7 D% Z
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 + P2 R. w* ~% r4 D/ r, j& k' l4 j6 u& @ $ I W) `( z+ _( d 4 R: E3 | d- |, T( S/ }; J5 C
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 Q8 V) Q) {4 ~! v; E- p! `9 c
% Q- ]& K$ o6 Z, O 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。, I+ J7 [. v3 u( e2 b" {
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。: J. ?1 e7 r5 A( n0 N+ @6 l
! R1 p( _& b' I# R) O7 @! ` 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # _/ Z. ~% u8 q& d ; X5 s# }$ o3 A( E$ O 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。3 K% f! P% K' T/ E4 G
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 , h7 s8 T5 A1 G I7 x9 R) A; f' j( k8 _) x1 Y* L
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。6 f( J1 Q0 M; P4 |
3 v+ H" \; t" Q8 f% _ （责任编辑：杨海洋） ( s2 r }% Y/ W* q. r) }0 M& R/ l. i; b9 V: R
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : Q& }& u; [) o7 Q ( H' `- u. S8 U- Z7 h3 EBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; ?" H) @' L! R
3 g* p! e9 I1 g* n* nA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . X, t6 K# l! |' D7 h; i# q+ D& b 3 r" }7 _, p- R% _- s. m1 ILet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * P9 l/ N4 U! ?+ }
* h6 i0 A7 k( O/ KAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 L' W8 o* S# c- [/ Q 0 }+ s' j3 H& [3 R( \ s2 H$ ?4 o0 LRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , k$ w( q: \' v6 c2 P/ @# i0 |+ `) b
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # p* y* h, u6 @% m7 I! k+ c
6 D, q4 {9 U* X6 y( O. S! h/ aThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) O. F$ T, O5 q: T+ C( v, C+ C
9 }- `" J: n* o"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , p8 _$ |7 E6 B5 c, E) Q# o, @2 x. n* d4 T p
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - X0 d% s2 _0 @" J# i9 b! P& V- a' D3 D8 N5 c
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " W& W" s" Z! L# [( h3 }
! c. O: X2 l8 O0 G' BThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( s1 F1 g2 w( O/ Q5 }& D4 L" B, e& L C$ M% ]# o
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 e p: b3 P+ o2 |" V" s
! i6 L& ~! \5 i BChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' J* L! O( z- [: ^3 \$ x7 ]4 F2 |! O( _: B" }( `; X! `
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 w5 {5 F& `% Q# w 3 z) p8 d$ m1 Y; ]: CInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 @" w8 n& Q- @+ P" s7 z* w* E0 c& }1 P: p$ H
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) }, F9 y" K6 H! W2 E0 u+ P
) j& h$ B% |$ R& A) cGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & u- g; p4 f+ A. _5 o7 a v3 h1 ?7 S3 r, w7 }Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
