& J$ X/ y" n2 V3 s8 n 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # o& E2 ]! S% h, |4 D4 S. }, F) w; {! h& y6 i: Y （责任编辑：杨海洋） . w6 H; T+ U S( Y) s2 K3 t, {' M( B4 Q1 Y: d
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 R4 K- t+ d4 Y6 B; I" W$ s( O; I
z2 X, N% }# m3 P+ KBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % s% ]* g- j5 T2 @3 F4 }* J U2 i9 g* N) n
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : c; B4 x0 c7 r# g, w + S1 R: Y3 a( R/ W) }8 DLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # H, `4 ~ `& Q# f ^0 Q, O! j& }After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! N4 z& f: f! ]- ]: p- @3 F% T
1 y, b8 z2 X0 p5 s- ]/ @5 r. _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. \6 o, q9 _ k: e3 N F) l
* P8 j' y) i2 m" f0 Z7 O5 qFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' C8 m4 X Y3 C4 M) b! O$ z n
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * q8 w& S% t" I, |% p# z# s0 w5 M/ v% T
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 _2 A9 G& w* g ~/ `6 @
$ _5 q* K" }$ T V& ]: D% V# DIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 i4 c' e% P7 p2 ?, m
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 B: Q+ [/ ~& w * e/ T9 P! {7 c' D0 qThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . T+ i U4 n4 k3 x9 x2 c Z
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 n! U8 {" S9 t$ Y/ b0 Z- ~0 ^7 f
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( @8 { p) q$ A3 |/ }# T8 k+ Z- @, ?* w
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. - {1 v; Y, |9 l3 F) n
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. i1 f2 ~0 ~# a % P* ~8 L2 j1 _, J7 s& _# Y0 k"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 T: b9 ]( n. @8 ~4 l
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 Z% B9 }% M+ ]/ l
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
