外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ( x) b. w- R1 X# ^) r+ D. C6 p2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 6 |. ]1 i% R1 }' y+ F % n( p8 ?9 J+ ~* E4 [: z# |2 o7 l * x+ ^) \/ N4 V: k0 X/ @
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。: U9 O- i% t2 J) A4 F5 c3 d: D
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。1 I4 b; t3 k! a+ [" C+ ^' i
# Q& ?& q/ y$ u7 M0 _+ } 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 O* U$ k. V8 C* r- U/ M6 s# A
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。6 n( J" Y/ j( c6 _9 d- A1 c/ m
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。: }) a( n- ^* N7 q( S
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5 l0 @" w8 k) E& E5 q! {- w
! G$ J8 D5 \2 Y: o, o" l 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。3 p. E' J* C/ Q! @
$ w R& f! }: [4 } （责任编辑：杨海洋） ( p' \, Z5 x4 P# v( f/ _3 D4 h8 G9 ]3 q9 ]
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, M0 D! P6 \* _$ I0 Z; _, z7 J8 r' X
% F0 r: f; E) t/ j- sBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . b2 m* v1 I, ]5 H/ z2 }% A. `6 h4 y( G0 F4 ]
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; _1 m5 E9 |6 h6 u6 T" i ; K' z' f& m% X, p/ U* r! G* iLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 |$ P2 M( [) l3 ~& B! L6 k8 m5 ^8 r- ^0 R: n% i- k
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 Z2 I! X5 }) P8 @, T5 A% U
0 ]9 p$ M% s( m; S9 i" ORoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / Q7 o' _/ Y7 D' w1 Q
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * K% e+ d5 r* _: f& o! [$ T
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. , r$ M3 p5 M9 O0 A9 F 2 o+ I3 e9 f8 u9 v; b"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % p% u) ^2 A: w1 Y z
3 U: Q9 |' b2 V! S& |- Z. jIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 @6 [4 Q; F; p Z 9 I" A+ B" c% i+ J( u( f6 ?Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' ~1 j: p# C( f+ ~4 |, J8 Z- v" g! I( @* P% F1 v" z
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. Q7 y3 r r e& ]/ [
0 |1 D3 H: q$ P) eUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , ]% u. T% }2 p/ b$ \
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / v9 L* Z. u0 E5 ] V1 o# F9 C% D
% a0 J/ F% d; sIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. `9 ^/ z+ l& m% B2 _2 N
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 A: Q. X* v" ~ 1 S- D! @0 w' y8 ]0 M"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( P- d9 |. }9 W, Y: h1 N
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : b! O& D3 R: c2 ?, _
