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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 1 F& e: v8 T) H4 W+ P* _+ V# e3 M7 n8 L/ s: a* }: |8 U
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 , B$ d7 C$ W) l( K" a& V& B* E7 Y$ ~( t" H, O1 a
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。$ S( W5 J8 s% O3 m3 s$ u
& J# _, C* r& ` 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 @8 f1 \9 w9 E' C M6 e) W. |/ s2 A" z+ z$ S$ u
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 % g; c9 z# n+ i" I9 ^# P 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & b* N6 H/ b6 H+ B* j' N, L- a5 `" l0 G+ }7 G% }4 ~
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。5 [9 v! ^8 {2 E& s4 {8 e6 \
4 _2 Y( |' k4 u! Q( M" M2 i7 _: `（责任编辑：杨海洋）9 @8 M5 |+ {& O6 D5 `
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters+ N7 v! S0 ^7 S9 l) k, U7 J! n
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( r6 A7 \& `! s/ x( j8 e0 n
& j3 j6 w( t. [! S) M5 aA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 r2 o' Z6 s; ]% y& O6 ^7 E- q/ J5 r/ I) G. ~9 _0 ^+ Y
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ u6 A S: l0 E, e" y. y6 @5 C7 W, q: h& z
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; _7 E! K# G1 n- c
: A5 a3 \, W+ U, ~) V6 Y2 lRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 Z# _! ?7 B# V2 d7 A! F+ Z
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 Q; Q D( T+ Y( m$ V" l# G
5 k- Q2 w4 F1 _( c" nThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 H& w9 |# k) p# `7 {; ]3 W
' J* E1 T/ v8 {6 l"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # U6 S+ i5 N( |: v+ {0 t) m8 F& g. D) N0 k
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 c* ^5 C" @% W1 z [8 U2 u6 \7 _ n: x' h0 D% z) U6 q+ X
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / m2 M+ R* x) q* L. k
! m0 v( R) P! W7 e4 {That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & U, \* B& W p' c8 _8 N( w7 T; u
2 Z# Y: z. D2 _Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 O( p5 s7 E8 o' @9 q
0 g U* [2 g9 r+ n- C0 ~- t! |0 q+ l9 SChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . r' P# S+ K4 k' h4 z& Z. F+ y& ?8 S " L( A5 b6 Z* GIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ T8 I/ h2 B# P9 Y: n0 r ^" g) A- h. B) o f# x3 jInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 G/ Z" d3 |% d \; \* F0 h ) w- T9 F; m w/ v) o' b"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 [$ H8 i! I3 w1 `& _6 ? # |3 ]" v' o* V2 g5 KGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 s6 A" O8 f! j" a' P* C/ j4 L 7 R( Z% I; a# `4 ?$ N: \Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
