$ a9 T/ A7 v5 Y6 N3 ]" | 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* R: C, X( C4 y" h/ |- o
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& s! g4 ]; g# Y9 @7 \5 {0 }: J/ ?
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 8 a3 ^& }- Y6 B% u) K E2 h " J" c( o2 r4 b( S$ W2 h. m) I 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 " D. O0 V4 x' T& { 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5 ? @) L; C2 h. F! D( K) ?
6 u5 J7 R6 K7 w7 W4 ~8 M 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 5 Q9 c! j8 O/ l ( }4 T$ Q4 u) T" N. I, R3 H8 X: I（责任编辑：杨海洋）9 u& K& ?, ?; H$ I* |' ?
) e, T# E- ]" } dRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& F2 n2 Z/ t* @ l. s( c2 l) g3 ^2 |8 ~
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 ?2 p. S7 ~4 ^3 }9 d4 m* l7 v! U- G1 ]" F+ O7 p" j# x
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / s# p9 s' D& {! f$ _! H' w" p' v: r5 W3 G, O. q$ @
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - v0 b8 E9 B9 E6 N) R
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % G( f5 n5 Y6 a1 s2 ] s, c
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) ^, h4 l( @7 M0 i
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 \7 T9 O3 d* q
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( S# _0 q- W' g) ^, ] 8 J* f% }: @' \% s. {( w"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 T' q: E9 n# }& S, q( n; H$ ]) v% d: s& ]8 U& Y( Z1 T' q: K
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 f# c: n% K- I2 E! j, ]
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + T3 c O4 b7 q0 M- @
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; D9 n' k2 q- s3 h/ e, I
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # P) s7 Y$ t) y$ a9 r- S ! g$ ]9 S; k. ]3 r6 \, T0 g, ~" TChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " \9 r% k/ T0 s# J3 ^& Q
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. c7 O/ y6 F' P8 b1 J$ I) M; P* i 2 e% ]2 ?; S: w- U4 W4 tInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) Y5 |! B \1 h) `2 Y3 U- o$ `) f
) {& t& D; ^2 o8 o! S5 ~* N2 ]5 m. J' E"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ Q2 y7 i5 Y" y" B6 [6 @! I2 }. h& F
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - p* }6 h$ O2 w3 o# P$ z. K6 `& q# u
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
