3 M9 W# V e* ]; l& C 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 + G7 o5 s5 p# s# ` 3 U. P$ F* E z9 S 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 . U. e) O9 s( I( ]6 A3 m7 b& k - V, D) b8 n, |. h 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 3 ?& H/ ]5 c* ~. v' N; B! o 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 H6 y2 }# f! B8 C + Z/ r. g# @& I* l 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / Q$ D4 s/ l* X6 ^( ^6 E' A9 R! Y6 L; X* l+ k3 [, R6 t7 r# U) W （责任编辑：杨海洋） }8 s I, G8 ^ ) R- A' X4 f) ]7 M2 K7 RRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 V0 R9 A' A x& |
7 I3 O( R1 c7 I( f# lBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : a0 S' t' I6 O) E) c
7 t. J3 y! L4 X; h1 W3 HA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( L* {, Y9 ~4 j' |! i: F' S! X% p s/ Y$ i& X
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 R" ?: c3 \$ h- N/ M6 a
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . a! D) \0 g7 ?& a5 G7 T; C
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 J" Z$ S9 n( L6 o2 { a+ C+ j1 E6 C. `9 {3 W: m6 x% C
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 }/ i4 H- s/ o; @* r' c* O9 H! x; `" Q" \8 g& c' d- i8 G
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 ~" `0 b' Q$ k, L4 a. j
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * \% u" @, c2 E4 ~: n3 \
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , k- \' d2 V, E! w( f, Z2 ]# W 3 S e' ]& }5 @Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 t# Y1 Z" G- w
" t/ }3 y3 h- Y' XThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 c/ F' C6 `, j7 i/ \ ) y+ R8 \+ W f3 I$ J$ zUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % W# B2 \( |; T' V* K+ a! \& V
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 o% T, V: c3 p( V! y% C( _7 Z: P2 ~8 H6 }
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. t. E" \, l+ O" @. H9 L0 d" ]+ p2 Z5 |" }% P: }
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! v% b: u9 L* O: ~: X5 P3 T, U# a0 p+ {
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 F4 ^% q8 \- s( z) \% C
6 \8 t# k8 o9 Q, nGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 w3 {3 A' D# c. q) f% ^5 c+ {
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
