8 Y5 T ~" Q+ h# F# l! ^ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 x5 g4 G9 H! G) u+ @( l; q5 Z/ R% S2 t" X
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 - J$ a3 x) U6 X% k2 i6 v5 e9 { k" M" U
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 C' p1 R4 ] Y
. m+ o, W% _ q. u9 g1 |$ Z, b 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。$ H9 O# H) ?% R, ?3 [1 t- `0 r
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 8 U: u# Q6 c, G9 Y - J9 h/ M' V T9 c* l# E 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: g' }- e+ c6 W9 e1 n
+ G2 I- n" j3 x（责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 t N) @/ Y, j1 j, M5 b3 [# R" H h: T4 [- U' _7 o% e4 PRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 ^5 c4 C" h @6 i
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 `2 o7 h! W: G+ H
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 \+ t. E4 n+ A# w* X% F2 a. J
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( Y- a+ J: a l$ }8 J6 [; [ * @% ~2 k' {; Q2 `" V* qAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' y0 K" g1 o+ v+ S+ {+ @8 f5 v4 |
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 j' k/ P$ N! N9 ~0 z
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + a: F8 v" r4 r. f. j7 m+ f! Q" k! L
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ F$ R9 ?) V3 a* T/ Q T2 \# \1 }- q2 h- Q8 m6 K; F
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 A$ P" E# b( A- ~. O
, @/ @# I0 d* t* }* [In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! {: L: h# D& S- M& ]
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 h7 h% z' r4 M8 I3 X% r
, x6 d& {! U1 A3 ?. H8 Z3 EThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 c+ K- W5 H* r9 Q) W* S% F: u8 V+ L
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & S. a! I- ?; O' q+ G + H& z9 v' o9 d, F" f1 W, b! }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; Y6 f' j6 U' m; Q: U# }5 [% A7 {. i$ o' ]
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. S( n$ a6 R$ w. U3 U* `* B; Y* b* F: z# ~
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) _, M5 }/ C" T
# A9 o0 |. x0 B: w* k"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 W1 K$ \, |9 Q1 d
9 Q8 y6 l" Z, X; F0 N2 GGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 z1 s0 f: h0 q" Q& @
