外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 / ]% Q" u; ?( F: |7 j2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 & b/ U8 X* j. h3 h, X {2 m 1 x" W5 v7 C" N" b* s1 I( m. z 2 N8 ~+ ^/ H7 b- p中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ; |: K1 f$ s" _ . q/ ^: L9 r# q; x# s: e 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。" y6 P% x; g& d `2 Z
2 z! n0 y3 ` i2 a$ B 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。) n9 {2 j2 D K( s
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 ^) G; S) ~/ o# b- I2 h% k$ q% P& @; s ) ~$ N. X) w' q. B3 k 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 % d9 ]. @3 ~" w3 R' k8 a) Z 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 J$ S. _, N+ F3 S+ x; u3 w3 d 5 ^6 L( C, E! K$ d7 w* R 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 5 Y5 v* T( \( `( i( Q% j+ ?) z G3 m7 \/ A' w （责任编辑：杨海洋） v: m3 E, b: B- B1 F% `/ R4 I0 q6 a0 I6 E$ |7 I2 k+ y/ G
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters3 A2 j, n/ L5 Y r1 N8 l# e4 N( q F0 ^) H; p
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . G' X) p& n* c' V2 X( c( s9 G! b* x5 _9 d
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! x A/ {! J5 A; Z2 @& y5 }. v
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 i1 p* G2 W! _* r0 D o1 j! o3 \; O8 w4 ?* ^6 } w. W
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) e/ ?& }# B% r+ `* C4 N1 }# E: \/ y
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % j6 t$ A) K h& I1 k
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / d# e9 u0 Z* ^& _' \% Y) K
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' k6 p. B* i" H; _8 n+ s1 L : N( j5 h2 X, m8 J" V7 I"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 }+ _! x! ~3 S8 w9 \- y/ U
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( r2 y0 a! p1 e; ^ 3 u. ]; ^$ I4 T4 yGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . o, v: L3 y/ w; B6 B1 s6 O+ Z/ [: W
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' c5 g# Q9 J8 r & N. g1 C* C5 [0 p KUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 w5 b* r5 }, Z0 Y8 \. ]8 ?8 t
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 z1 ?0 M0 j. C! l- S& O# M7 k" _( A7 w3 B. X1 N ^& I
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 e. b: A7 T4 q o 9 K* F# G% e, j0 B9 \# ?International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! u' u8 J- \/ f 9 e0 R% m, [8 ^& L"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ a3 i9 ^4 B8 }( M
\# q6 c, e3 n! x0 F VGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * Z9 S+ n* `' q
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
