$ d6 a) n3 G& g* A! f # T f* q5 j" s5 k3 H& S/ K; } }" I中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 f2 ]1 E5 D N
9 L! E X% n7 Y. ]- z2 a) b/ E 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。! R3 C7 V' h- p( D# w: _
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 + w- {! C! `# ]5 ?- b 9 R( ^0 ]: j: ~0 M _ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 i" ]. E9 \: f: u% N$ R) k. ^7 Q1 ?" B5 U \4 H2 t+ G
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 % m2 i3 t6 X) s 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。1 E! |: n: w& @: B T
7 Q% ^8 Y$ E( M5 m" O 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' _+ s+ {6 J, b1 J" y
2 n, x+ S! ?4 @2 I （责任编辑：杨海洋） $ F/ q- G# N7 G# p" G- \: G4 } 4 t" _* s' B( `0 v" |3 hRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 3 \$ _0 Z% A9 `$ a3 J, o; T" e0 G0 |/ c* y
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : V4 s }; C, E* J: s F. R( z- K$ D0 ]0 p3 N* gA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 `3 J! Z" R# c' z! U5 o
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / N: n$ J$ b- M' a# k7 t3 |" h! \9 Z0 m5 N
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + h* Q- _( { b) H6 N( O: G4 {$ N U1 P3 @4 c3 p
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . q* n0 ~9 g4 S, i1 [2 _' ]% E( Q! U/ X, P# P# @! z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 S9 S0 g1 x% a+ v0 y( e; W* p- m& W) j% x0 o4 k" i
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 `% z# }: |9 X5 g' U) c4 B. A Z1 i2 G
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % Z' q+ V9 B' }8 ~. ?. T% f* i6 w }; ~ s, K7 z
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : F* J' N( s" [4 s! X i
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , G! g/ V$ I! ~3 J$ ` # m1 |6 J g e/ |4 V7 gThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 R0 {" F0 b* U: _
( |6 C9 _7 i$ w+ p' G- @& s! vUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! [# V% e1 A( T3 v3 A0 A9 o: \; L' _+ X; p" i8 E% T
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % n1 `& K* _) |" J9 J% V4 s* D7 t) Q2 T. b0 ?
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) @: l f, l3 X$ J+ ] 5 y$ M8 C$ @9 k; yInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 r3 W9 J `* r( |
" c: {9 e+ ]- d' c"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + `5 Y, L' ] P u: I# Q3 n7 p$ a- s: |2 j. J4 T6 c
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 H( Z G) ^; N6 r, N! |; b
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
