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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters' p5 I; o8 l$ L [
: @# }: N& w- u, H, {- }. k4 @8 qBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 B Q1 j+ t) |2 P7 I2 u9 ?5 c) n, l% u8 S% y0 O1 b
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 T1 ^" _ r7 S! U/ a/ H' W1 ^& F
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 \1 o& D# p+ O. r3 V1 ~+ z% u0 K& P; F
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 X( ~# i4 L; U. p( l4 h- c; c1 e1 \& s w# @2 \! {
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 C/ [5 Y6 P- x; m$ f! T4 c" w4 O& h+ G
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( j% R4 `! m( T$ O& i. F% E8 O
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. F( c/ V' K! N5 j( T% J" S, Y3 i2 F
! b( w: Y0 z9 Q5 S"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , W1 n, g, _* C4 z+ \0 T6 H" r- X2 n! p! @
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 R( Q: c# ^" h* f' I: r! o: \% E. g: `1 O7 Q; h! a
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; z$ o) r2 L$ K% v' ^& {) v ) K7 ~& W& c: [: B- n: rThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ M; d8 a* J8 ^7 M) d: R
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 C" Y7 l1 J# ~5 Q
" x& X' y; A& y$ g% p2 Z& X, L/ UChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : N3 n- [7 O4 w7 ]3 A* P 2 N6 P k; K: j/ q4 dIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; U" q0 o1 ~8 U: A& O. Y7 E& e- F! c) i
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' e _# S- {6 X1 k$ c. \
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 t+ J0 _5 M2 u8 K. H4 j# @$ B" G; m$ W5 Y4 B H' }- ~
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. $ M8 h8 f' P7 k6 z0 L0 x# | " `; O7 h N& ^, ?; t7 `Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
