外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 2 ?: u2 B+ L' ^: M2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞/ ~* `2 _/ V0 S1 R" Y- u
T/ i8 ~: P ?7 g8 e/ ` * a4 Q" c. R5 y' X' Q" N中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 3 H4 W- V" y3 T, q7 J7 a" h' H* E6 P7 l. W5 M
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 $ J( }* [+ K( C# A9 w/ g3 F: J/ \% _" J" P+ j
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。; @' ^: u5 j. R# L
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。* t/ y+ V0 |0 I' H
; E6 t# g5 P& k7 u/ N 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ) B N. @/ ]' f) }- \ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" W( \- X0 m* ~0 J/ P" o' u+ [
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! D9 M/ [8 } K& k' p! H
# ~" m- Y/ G: y# d6 E- d! n8 _ （责任编辑：杨海洋）! d. [7 p7 [1 _
% k' r( [6 F4 z; C9 R: g8 V' TRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters$ V6 |+ N: _. S- @
% Y, Q& g6 l# n& K& s# ^" J' ?0 O# YBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - }3 ^- n" I! g `( t- s
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 I. B8 m# y, _9 ]# M/ L, s
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. y4 t% D' D) S3 S2 U ! F8 u( o( x; T6 k6 M' c$ @After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % P5 W2 F! ]- p( ?
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! r& }; p5 d+ S& @( @
; f0 `+ G6 d% b/ o9 m4 bFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % k- K; _& q6 L+ v d ' N8 [ `- z0 L, o5 r" ` pThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . R' l5 {" _, X 7 E$ C4 H# _$ K# P' R"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 {, H& z( n2 y6 e7 ^! B, _; k j1 j7 `0 _
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * W5 i% \( U& y( n/ P; }5 E `: T) q* c5 }7 r
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & M& p, ^: X1 L
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 R& W4 O3 Q6 `
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % R; M; }6 a+ S0 L+ e! R
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " g0 O% n& d; v/ U5 M. ? * \7 p5 q) m" p! [If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 X* A( a, ?" h0 x$ r
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( U/ h& Q/ R) x R+ z0 S
7 i8 H. `1 x8 q, H i1 s7 w"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 A$ n! E" J9 Y3 }
. l% T# B; j) n; p6 ]- T, x( `Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) e4 A+ ]; a; v- d" M7 y; v4 o+ ~
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
