, v+ c( i9 }0 d 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。- s' ~( p9 [6 [' u$ U
/ R2 |# g/ p, E. c7 U! c/ u% ^（责任编辑：杨海洋） $ c* R) c( J% D0 w; T0 R1 D1 j3 {% ]7 W- A7 e( b
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 ], R' }0 D- f- V8 t$ {8 C/ }1 J ) w* r' P- M, H: e% oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * D! E# r; [/ Y9 n% B9 q , u1 c5 J' l" S$ A9 ]& OA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 \/ |# ^) E/ j% n; @9 ~$ K
: q9 N3 k/ V. o$ G+ }: JLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / j* n: g7 o8 b9 ]/ @
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; X5 {6 R3 ?" n3 z2 M- Z; V) t) x8 ^+ m9 R4 h
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * z5 O' T# O0 C% f C% X2 Z& } . p) c; H9 \, I" E6 [First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - z+ f* O. b- c Z& g8 p# Q. I7 o$ _1 X9 |
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : n( y3 C" `' H [& O6 e" N" `"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , p! t/ r. C" @* }# Z) n6 X1 x6 z: P" f
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 w6 b; y6 z( D) i3 |( k
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 n2 B# [1 h- T! q' ~5 U- k" w& @# W3 t, x2 m/ q9 O
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ D1 b- {* F. B8 { " c) s7 r E- KUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 X. x/ R1 L) v 2 k# I X" M0 Z9 n% U8 x/ ~$ CChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 i N: \2 f# p" u* {" B 0 E3 w( P; S+ B3 ^If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 B' {; J+ o; P" j9 F
7 X8 [" P8 s4 n) X. {. XInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! X u6 C3 M3 a6 r& e) _" r8 f' C4 r
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( o1 W* \0 s, u* v , c; T# [8 M, e" `- I7 |$ [, TGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 `% p4 P2 ~# Q! _2 d( ~
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
