4 Y9 C' Q* z0 V/ [+ P9 K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 g/ k8 i5 `8 t
; {" H$ w0 }% h! Z W" y% @* _ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。9 S; U U8 x% {7 R7 O
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。! A) t9 ~7 T" P6 X+ s) N
5 P9 r8 g; ]% ?+ M1 d1 k' A7 XRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ( Q1 @ k5 D4 E I. |- F" N& b3 O7 {: E0 w: [1 [% ] ? V
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. P% Q& _- e# P
) d* u0 ^7 _* B
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 s2 r+ {* @. |/ x8 {( o
8 b; e9 o, F; u2 O! ]: R$ n }- G
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! E' d3 b! p& ~/ }
% O% v2 \9 L; O9 c- UAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 5 D- k- O K1 M. ]/ F ( \$ I7 D9 ^0 {Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 ]; z9 E, D4 n3 @. B8 U
" P0 X) F& }1 r% c+ ]" K3 pFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 8 n: b$ ?3 u, {% q 6 L) ~& m4 ~* j* p) yThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 n" v. o$ }+ m4 |# I$ t & C. p1 u5 E; K' ?; z- X$ \"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! M& Q, I2 Y4 C; ~$ f2 Y
8 u) p, e% ~! W' a0 q6 }7 n
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - |9 ^: ~+ ^; U ! ^* `& I5 j) r4 @ {3 ^/ iGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % X7 U" N3 P1 h
- H1 x( v6 G+ g% f
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ a$ H6 i& E3 u' }0 ~! t2 R3 M) Q& Z; {; m. {1 a* b0 Q4 Z$ c
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! u" s. e! y) v! ^( J, V+ x$ e
7 b+ ?/ z/ u; ?0 W7 a8 Q! ]- {
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". S' m5 Z- G, J* B) J* D" T5 t
$ h: U% O; ?" k- q& a* V1 [1 bIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 \1 Z# d% R" @; t; x& u 8 _7 I% Y5 O% AInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! U( O: E0 `1 X g- q! x# i
0 I, W" E. {: n/ [( H& G9 `"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 o: k; l5 q" `- ~0 u$ m- r c3 Q0 h) `0 G2 C
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - T$ }: s5 f; U1 z- @
