[ I9 n! K n; g! \7 m( T% c 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 . V$ P8 p7 r* X6 H5 q8 f9 M0 `7 L' b' b1 [* B! ?
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 l- _+ a4 k8 {
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。0 X$ g6 X0 `6 Q! l
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : n& I/ Y5 ]8 Q" p2 Y : T% B. Y* J2 k7 Z& q. A" `4 G 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 $ ]7 [* ]0 E5 |9 t$ v0 O5 r' ?- H# O- f/ v0 _, d$ E1 G （责任编辑：杨海洋）4 z: Q6 h- @( F$ t
! U) I( X2 d* k8 MRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 |- k+ V$ P9 M( Q. G
4 Q: j% ?# v. C9 ]# {! `4 K8 wBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 E. l+ ? Q& H% C
( c0 Z4 T" d+ g; L3 C! C" PA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / S' R5 v8 u9 ]. p+ a0 h8 X8 Y6 A . i2 S! R. {( {% G1 A6 E4 bLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' m! G8 n7 n' M. a% X0 C, n: G
( n7 I9 t7 \: o5 k' V: m/ OAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. }7 H: E6 c% W6 D : I% F- j% {; Q+ w9 k0 k! J0 VRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + @1 z: W2 q3 @2 Y4 \1 E5 _" _
. S/ Z" @9 Q, l2 r* U) v0 DFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . t2 W' d+ q" q" c! f4 |' X( H# l + \& K! |) ?' C; yThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) f' X6 O' Q* M h3 v! Z4 n; D1 m3 U* z
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 v, o& v1 g. |0 A5 i " A) j \2 [# R4 m, u4 F2 ^7 EIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 Y) j6 }$ I) ~& h: U
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 q9 ]6 h4 k& ]' q5 K3 n" E
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 J4 }$ Q& p: C; g2 Y3 [% ~; c
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. [ g! `8 K& G% \9 f( _4 u% d+ }4 Q ) ]4 Y+ i8 i" zChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' B2 s" o+ C. H! T2 f: {
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 J2 f9 z& {# k$ {1 K& v
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 Y! Z4 m: r5 y! y+ x, j. T5 y! k8 P# B6 j8 j- Q/ H" Y% H
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. p7 [$ |4 r1 M 1 C+ u: ]7 @( P' ZGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : o$ p( r! v6 v8 N6 X" @ % r$ y# G V/ L* HThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
