外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年2 }7 j& S( ]0 i% P
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞" |/ s2 u' N6 X, s% y# N
8 J+ K( l. g$ _9 ? ) x& Y9 @2 O0 M: A2 `5 j2 S# _中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 [, ?+ s4 L- m# M/ g0 {. X" p+ E! Z- W) V3 W
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。+ S0 v R" V& r, m) k2 p
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。# \( @9 I9 r' j4 C/ {% D8 c
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。* _( b0 `4 o% n( N
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 M/ J4 T4 w, G( ^( I" y, x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 1 s8 v& |- h7 x$ o( X. ~2 H2 h) l$ C7 I" s9 ^5 N
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 % {' O, {9 p5 Y4 _; L% Y# I+ _8 U （责任编辑：杨海洋）/ ^- q: W% q) Y, ~! ]8 u
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" ^' h/ L% t/ J: v( \
% w' \5 f ^7 C- q2 W1 _( uBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : m" n& I) p$ P9 T2 e5 U5 N
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. U& N4 O% g2 W* z- v2 b9 D
; p( }6 A5 c1 a: w# K( ULet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 B) a4 l5 _! c# r% r$ y% l9 K! k( P+ U+ { f1 F2 v
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 @$ {5 e s) b p7 {: e( |) T& @7 ?# e' H
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , }$ L, S; q6 I$ ?7 P
' }! k9 [ T8 L# n3 ^; L5 [; TFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + |) K% O3 d( T5 @" j5 v0 V
- {/ Q) I0 F1 u q1 CThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 \* C7 W% X9 b6 _
: h9 f2 m9 l) I"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : \; r8 J9 b I# H) s( ^2 I9 A7 N1 Z; @1 l3 _
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 ]9 J9 K3 c5 A% j9 C; [
5 k' {* o: o" s3 OGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 ]+ o$ }5 q2 J0 t % u4 h2 E' |; m7 t IThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 k' Y& W, t5 M/ Z% j* v
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ H; v% D) k& S8 O' ?
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # n1 Z# m+ c% |. N( T" T- p, K6 G- | 3 X/ @9 d& c: sIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 2 k/ ^8 g& S9 Z) M2 B% n8 M2 j # ?2 H* [: G `/ r5 u/ PInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 u1 `2 g' R3 q6 r( A( j, O. M1 o$ ]( G( u6 U; N- o8 ]+ w" M7 ]$ i
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 L+ R8 ~& Z7 ^7 N
" [- s& ]6 ]& D7 k0 d$ @Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 y$ Z3 Q! U3 p8 J/ L0 ?8 G' H* i
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
