外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 8 ^ d" ~+ e/ G" s+ A& @2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 " P! h. o& p; ~# K" ^ b " ]8 @) O* _8 B! E; z & `- @* M$ Q4 m1 r中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 3 ^3 g+ g6 `9 a7 F3 o* n a( a ' N" a* ^6 N9 [0 @4 a5 [ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。3 H" N5 f7 O0 G
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。, D/ g: ^2 T7 J) g d
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( M3 K1 f7 R7 P& p/ [; k
) r/ D. T) v' Y0 }9 l2 F1 ? 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 - L7 p2 S' R: Q" k- L$ D 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。/ c6 y7 `3 |+ `1 ]$ S2 Z, R# z
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。" `: L2 G" U6 y7 g
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 s |, o% ~3 {. W9 W2 H. n & B: X0 d _" T' s& m! JBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : p. D/ B5 } p _9 c. ^+ c0 C# n
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - q3 [, Y8 Q1 {; q
7 K M2 `9 z+ n f7 q. n9 vLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , J" `3 C5 S* @9 l' ]' Q1 l
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' ^& i4 c4 r9 x; ~& I % Y0 q9 `9 a. O- M: ?8 QRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( v0 a* x2 g7 t. u
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 J) v5 q- ]8 b6 Z3 y ! \2 [& V6 y* l2 K$ eThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 |. Q2 @6 N) N) w8 a3 J
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' Q7 [/ ~$ _% x# ~0 G' F
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & S8 F _2 Q. A; v0 ^
5 g" ~8 @! Q' I( f: U! |Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 z' Y4 H8 z/ j7 H+ d0 j$ b! T ( [- C! H, k1 R O5 O# @2 G/ BThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 a. S, n4 X$ {" x
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " ~0 _, \9 _$ @7 K/ P
. l7 @, s9 w2 A4 P. MChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - m1 _8 n, E6 q5 Z/ [3 \) P: f8 j* z" X0 ]: N* M. ^
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 f/ W: ?/ e" y5 z$ c3 J x7 O- C6 V+ |% vInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 T! _' q4 D" I, K9 A6 v2 G- D: I
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 U! J% A, F/ F$ S, p
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. $ V, V6 |8 t8 V6 [* D8 P6 T% N) e6 P* H* G% }) P' `: ?0 q& S
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
