( L2 C% ^, q# j% i. G5 b8 T 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 " D2 I* j7 ~5 d9 s3 r+ ]( Q 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。$ w7 K# y/ |$ {2 E) E' x9 ]; {9 G
& b! O8 X3 i, W( E, J- @% v7 T 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' H$ V! o! s7 _. n) n6 s4 {
# H0 r" p' [' g8 Y; K（责任编辑：杨海洋） 8 f7 C) h5 P. I; ~' }/ d0 X 0 V4 O h- s0 F2 xRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ( A5 E! x4 `3 I4 ]5 x - f% n |- J4 X1 J" VBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . q$ n2 {% ]4 `5 z
* u2 O, f1 F* O2 p( V l1 P ~) xA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % J8 s+ f. \. c4 D
1 p6 K; n' E4 Z' V% N# Y, }' R
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 k+ Q: V, L: x 0 Q( _$ }) {3 @After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + f! v3 [. X- Q( h4 c, K7 @
/ K$ S+ ^- G/ rRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " s1 [. S$ j0 r4 d 2 D3 `! `8 O4 V K( VFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " L, q3 J; x5 _0 m7 v" S 7 }. Z& T% L9 R% j. XThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 O* {4 ~* S0 T; [6 a, w2 ^ 2 z- ?7 C) T& Y, ?& D |8 a"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / v. Y% y# k! W7 _ - ~$ y" r |3 i4 [" F- l2 |In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 n, e7 | h% J. E, X1 p- ~
/ K. E p y# w- _; n% F- Z. g
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 h4 i+ _- s- ]
$ L* J6 {9 E) YThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 K3 L) O7 G! J9 }- j; I. ?) z ! l# Y. j9 J0 @. q" DUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. t. W; J, Z6 O3 |$ q2 X
! j7 v: V( \) z2 B( N5 e* }' J
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 {# @7 D2 P U& z4 c5 n+ P1 M, Z( G2 K" Y
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' g8 B( M0 d" v9 e4 W! ~/ G6 d. u1 n6 S' W
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - B5 _9 K( K; u" @ & ]- a# M0 D% o9 F/ e2 r: t1 E"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 | Z' N5 Z3 q! S# W
) l, _5 R# Y0 k3 l( \" PGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " C- u& T% A G( } : W: V+ u2 m* _) O% n |2 f: gThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
