外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年0 t/ d- U" L4 d0 U2 R7 m
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 / S, w: d# o: C9 d9 O) p . f6 }# }4 g& g) P5 E ! V' d$ S& n [. r. }中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ) C5 E; _1 L- X5 [$ w; i3 _. d+ G+ N+ Y2 m4 R; f% V
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ' [& U5 L; l. X6 c/ o 1 V# V# M \" E3 w 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & s2 y) A9 _7 y: X7 g V; ?; G2 M( r2 H3 U" h, M
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # B' x' h3 X. l: p+ J* b8 E' H$ z) Z5 C- @
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! e. f& M* w" z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 $ N$ T p% {0 a0 ~% W ; S5 J/ @! j8 V) K* s" s 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。" I( c2 X6 Z3 i, c y7 [
' E' _1 t& ~# f& i& t （责任编辑：杨海洋）; N% N5 q1 U X" R2 E5 \, v9 d0 e
1 U7 I4 N; p1 MRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters + Z) V/ R- p. N$ M) f& [6 i. {9 E, I6 k# P* M$ U" R' |
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & i. o* d: v7 m" R+ D% b$ z ]/ t9 z4 ^2 q. K8 T4 Y7 h
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , M7 F6 x( G# I: q- d2 | $ v/ C& ], U8 K$ h7 bLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - f# j5 h! K6 @1 y: ]! G" U. ?- Q+ F
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 D5 H+ e# f1 C" C( s& [5 ?4 N: Q( e- o8 w
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' R* s# o9 ?) F
* o! {) i( Q6 W. m6 K5 L- s8 rFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : n- M# R1 {" s9 }: E$ q) s* Z' X# `0 i7 E+ [+ z! }' y
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 [: S9 p, n) J1 k
7 E8 f5 C1 Q7 o! p% Q6 J"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % G8 s& F$ k% L; T
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! n) N& ?- ?6 F" V8 i; \' O4 c+ l 6 |8 D' s" Z$ G p, pGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 J" m' E4 K5 [/ L5 x6 A" R! l1 q ! ]+ `- |+ A1 h. |5 bThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 I' q; Y; Z6 j4 |- J, P3 I3 U# Y. M
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 Q0 \! Z+ T! u4 P$ p# [1 H 0 w" Y/ Q" f6 h9 @3 B- r8 \China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 g- G9 G( J5 }
+ v1 e, r/ [& |$ HIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 z! w D& C/ W
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 ^" a; h) ~6 b: z! g/ X7 }
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 O. {/ K. ?% w4 ~: j' [- _; u1 N" Y1 Q! C
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' G U- S: r) \, R+ i) p2 j, g+ X* x+ f- C& Q, n
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
