外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年3 A, O7 {: d' B, ?
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 & {. `; Z5 ]+ U: m1 \3 X) H4 f) |2 p; Z, e
9 _# @& ~' w% B: i& O9 o# U4 ~中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 . q9 A( q& t0 ?1 ~$ z: H7 N 3 q9 j( Q' `' F 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。0 l: c' h1 f) _2 X; a. d# [$ ?
2 ]" ?, a) }1 s% @& a4 u 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& G6 T0 V; l4 g8 J# [8 q( c
2 v" \" a2 d! [/ n 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, W$ J* O0 p: q" `- V. c) f
( ~- B; I2 ]; {
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( @( e3 K9 h2 _ t 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 # w' A. S. k& h6 }2 @7 |& O 0 ^3 S F! t' U" l- T" S 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 Y8 h. G& }+ D, n ^, i
0 k9 A. t- `! M' G （责任编辑：杨海洋）. w& h; x7 d, g' H/ F5 k9 F
$ Q! B" g. @0 Q5 e4 R( V
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( u8 F2 D+ G" X, k9 H# O0 y
3 D5 s9 o5 p9 _6 I, X: z+ t" SBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : N: B. T4 a2 O2 o' W
0 j% |' j+ h6 \& qA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 x( `3 W3 Q& Y9 w" `7 O Z) L: m3 \6 x; y6 Y" U, J
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ o8 F+ C V* O# k' o) z+ {! h3 b. i+ u0 S9 Z; P7 V" C
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , d" E8 ^/ k) s. W B8 ~/ e) i: H % {. V! ? s7 Q! J8 I# P1 }Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 K m1 R3 _. Q e
4 t i! i9 j& q: [: u
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 |) ~# o# I1 N) [, V
5 \# _7 j0 \* s) U# m3 x
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " k3 ^0 Q" w7 `. e) W/ ?6 }6 K3 s5 Y. M& {% u, o
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # U5 @7 A- d& p$ c, V, f2 D- X6 C4 ^( u1 m% }0 o% q# H. Z9 ~
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * `5 t( [* e9 f4 B, |" O; _) O
# S) O, `5 M9 c% y0 QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - U3 r! o P! R4 ?. s2 l2 H4 q" G: l, v6 M3 @
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' [/ I; d0 S- j* ^3 [
" k% b6 Y3 D* M2 e3 Y S8 \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) p4 e8 v c: \* D S 8 _* i' G7 x Z& s$ Q5 `1 k- ]5 nChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 z/ m9 c( e ]# }$ o& M# N# Y
' i9 E# u$ `' A
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & V5 b% Z$ T! V5 E
$ M" P1 p: |6 k& mInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # A# ]% g# i+ R
: B3 {! A. [: ^# o! @3 a3 X8 F! I"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ T- E9 D# k! S! ^/ _
- S! ?4 {5 s# I) M1 a( E0 d7 D5 eGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + K1 w/ Z/ {- `4 e1 }5 \
, a! z/ Y" B) c
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
