外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 0 G9 x3 [6 t# {) g2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 4 i, U+ r; V( _, @5 s, W7 O 7 |$ d1 C( T8 s$ \- H& J. h( s6 w* L/ O8 ~ , r1 Q% l9 v& g+ U中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ! \$ _) f9 E3 X " J1 m+ U* E8 ^+ r: F 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 * L: a# k& S; O* t8 O; c. L9 S3 ~( }" _' ]$ O' p
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。" z% [6 X. ?; Q9 b# \2 d
& J. d3 U, U! V 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 q; ~9 w% `: m5 E. ] _% N0 X( c+ E* I9 A3 @* c' T 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, y; p& w) i _& S
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( c) `. R9 C$ a0 k1 S* i) ?/ W3 K
( v! ], Q5 \% G 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: }- l! b) v1 X" ~: Y
3 e6 u" h( }( m X% s8 j/ d8 V （责任编辑：杨海洋） ; ]% n6 ^% C2 a/ A! F6 T4 A* |: b b + W7 `0 P2 e1 jRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) p* i% B+ Z. E2 r5 L: V8 i+ p
! P3 Y+ t1 g" n3 @4 l1 hBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 g5 _$ O* `0 o1 ~3 b" S 2 b5 P) m; n- {( S& WA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 j- l. g1 V0 l
4 u( b& X& ~$ Z, j: ~Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 O K9 X: W; g! {6 q+ o+ Q+ ?: |( s1 a
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 i& O6 r# J, l v' ?6 z% D X( _* V6 c' ~0 `
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 n5 `9 N& O: x5 | 1 l! [0 B% E8 t8 E$ CFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' V3 H* }- Z! k V; T+ g( C
# l: c% M) m5 {2 tThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " t, m: z3 e' d! e& [ f4 N
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * k* E7 D9 L- b( Q $ h% E5 H% w Z) n8 f6 nIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 {& t$ W+ j" u& w9 | 9 H* ]8 _/ J2 g3 n% F% V' o, OGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ ]8 ^9 a o8 s
6 o3 r1 y h- ?3 A) X# K4 mThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % Y1 c# ~* `% x, b3 {, K % A3 s& [ s, A; @# zUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . L1 C, l! {8 ?( q$ @
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 ` |6 H; F; n! |5 b: V$ X& }& e4 e
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! E* p; y* K& u1 |5 t& h( @0 a. B7 B5 D+ ~* ^, A6 w7 s
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 i+ N/ j7 Y1 m! \( `) q1 n" H' A6 B
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - n8 Z+ H: d! h+ S
/ v! B f, H( l0 aGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( z8 `9 ]1 ] }7 v- }) b' d0 z' S
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
