外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年7 e0 R! N/ Y1 }# A( L# ^ x
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞- b5 \* C% z# G _( v- D
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6 D3 J0 h+ V8 Q5 c- O) ^+ p中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 r J0 X' V* C
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 7 Z% n. n7 V. d- e* B; [7 B8 i " E$ O# d) I0 ]# k 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。/ m* t) I, {7 x% J3 K; e5 U
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' i& d& \* S: F1 f' n" |
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 y5 s2 i- e5 q2 [2 \) ?! s! ]1 @ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。! P. k* D1 o H2 e! G
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : t f) Q$ R7 l1 f6 ? 5 i. P7 ~! G# n& r（责任编辑：杨海洋）% \, f* Q" s% o5 e+ j# z# ~
# Q: I. n0 _. Z7 }2 f% g- K6 ~9 }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters F' Z) u% i7 e" f% B* A " S& A/ ~# r/ V, \2 H3 ^BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. , @ X0 v6 z n) ?& ?3 T+ N' K + D G/ U% {) s" tA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - J6 X) ~" A6 i" T$ q2 P* U. ]
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ s- }. b s: X! O0 r 1 h1 P c; g- _2 C, c. ^After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 X9 |+ V2 `* J! w P- _0 Y& b- U6 k' H
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " v% Q; P2 @% g# M+ A* `, C" G
0 d) K/ H8 ^& Y3 FFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " V3 j3 z! o4 N* W3 p7 C. ~5 N ! G& Q# q% B0 W+ Y. W( q; jThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 X% y2 Y3 _+ u( X U* o, G6 e9 }/ h$ C, c
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " d# D+ h) c4 S; m$ e+ O) h; f 3 n0 k% d: x7 u# }1 Z" e! FIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 A% Z3 t5 U1 c3 [, | ! z) M" K- y& |# ]Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - p" {) {+ v5 Z * q: z$ C2 ^$ v" |That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 M6 Y$ N- Y- g0 M0 ~
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " Z/ p- `) g) j8 s5 P0 \% c: S( C
1 H0 |7 V& V# r* [2 }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , c/ ?' D' v# r6 `! D$ @+ B2 H, \8 {) j& f2 L
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! n1 ^' T' j4 j1 _9 T' W; ?
7 L n ]1 G9 Y( _/ aInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ \. ]! n/ x( w" O
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) z9 ~9 M4 g% Q! Z8 }- T% y
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ^) r0 J8 u# g! Y
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
