2 _# N6 U+ x( e' y 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 2 l! H8 m$ e+ \, m' M9 T) q% x' h 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。* o2 |! g% n4 x' n
) X* w+ ~# z G" x. F 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 - C7 I4 P" V& g 4 @, ]# d6 e7 N（责任编辑：杨海洋）8 j3 G+ u ?0 V& E; B1 Y& C/ H2 _
. n2 N1 v+ N+ z3 RRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 1 g* ]2 z- f* E9 F( A 6 d9 ~) h+ g- W9 P0 |+ bBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % [8 z4 p7 h. `( Q
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; I( f7 f& S4 ] ( U8 C+ z! r' s+ t' j2 MLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % X$ `- h# q0 N) k' N8 q2 m
9 s$ C7 K7 l6 ^6 FAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. a* G' w t3 |) |. \) M
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 v) t& c: G% z4 r0 e
. Q" b# U) {0 V: t- yFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 R, j X, J+ Z, e2 i1 ]& k2 n' T6 e0 _- H
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 m0 A5 w4 I* h) r+ {+ C; T2 l
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ D9 ]& _. k1 w4 y# O7 T' i % S' E F, g' y# }) [7 O3 C. U/ fIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 h; r2 @& N% a7 e- \/ v 7 w b* s( Q+ _+ Z1 B+ n' A D; NGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 U7 u3 O- I- W* }7 h6 ?
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 S3 M- b6 O$ p7 Z0 J, f 7 @7 t% m5 R- E: t5 V, @+ G0 i7 Q$ mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - V& P$ f& |% N: L9 y# `9 ~ : Z, U% c/ |9 \' r& r' gChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * v# X" _$ X5 F1 P0 a, G1 O# E7 }( |1 j
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' d p F' m3 p/ P% n8 f6 H3 d+ x- b; G! \4 |+ d9 [2 w# V
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 v1 o) y# E: B - B3 Y( L9 o8 l ^% n3 J% M- A"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % ^( j }9 T: {+ _8 {1 w
( i/ T1 l. A- G4 LGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - j1 ]# m2 R* h; u6 I. M# s5 v: h6 d1 l& V- _# C9 }0 ~1 e
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
