外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年# b2 }: Q( D% `; k
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 0 ]: m- V& N( y! }6 |5 d . q0 E( S1 p h ) o; M& j( ~! [9 `3 R! d中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。$ N- @0 V) `( f6 p1 C1 O/ F$ W
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 t, p' E. U4 @8 X) X . h! z# ]; r2 ]8 U7 D* g& t 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 * L% o; j5 s6 ~8 z9 P X/ J; P, J; ] 9 Z+ e% W" z: T- p; @ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ a9 L" a; f: C! K0 ]4 D
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ! i# R, o0 Z) l3 l) J8 N9 O 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。: z9 K ?5 K7 M0 _* D! M
% _7 y5 M4 P: W" w; z# p; y, b 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 $ R/ N9 u3 o- s 3 E" |# O; n b8 D（责任编辑：杨海洋） 3 r' L# K2 M' D p/ J/ l# o4 Z- b6 d: g/ ^
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters " D/ L' I4 |' `4 } , s3 l$ L% _( l, n% l: jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " P8 A) i/ M) D' M+ u9 o5 o
8 L, k# [2 j& U5 ZA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # K: j) j% y( X8 i ( O v2 n$ _3 ]3 aLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. g1 N' n* x+ D* L9 g4 F5 {/ n/ {/ H" Q) m/ v, p) D
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * p3 w* a7 R: i% R* q$ T* L0 T . w% _/ @( N {2 ^, E6 sRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * }8 g! B5 z$ ] Y& b5 B2 ~
# v: t) t& b4 b) S e& \# AFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 p; V8 Q$ U9 H4 k0 m$ K5 J. F# X8 k; @$ D2 I( ]% e% c4 ^
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . ] {$ J, u) i7 ] ; P# x9 _) Y0 j; b% ?"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / H, R, v, m+ O
7 {8 G, ~$ V/ `. a$ J3 ^In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 {; c' b6 I/ c9 S! Y 2 g ^. Z% q! R7 i: s1 t3 W8 YGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 ^" A1 w; {4 X0 `) X- d0 U$ L3 @; R5 {5 {; |9 v8 r m3 k
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' Y, G0 Q' N9 N2 g2 s
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ U( l' \* e. Q$ l
5 \; P: j# N8 P3 BChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & ~* j# r) E! X5 D
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) ^/ f9 F: k v) }
) U# E5 B* z+ {- x D7 c: TInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 P, V" H2 Q) @6 n% I1 a0 l' h/ A8 D$ |: s" }2 g
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; \4 w- m( k7 l/ p* V1 Q' j
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 ^7 w# E/ ?" C6 m! S1 q0 v2 x 3 e3 k2 j$ x( ]6 a+ C( O- A! [Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
