外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ) _8 y& J: B! f2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞9 @6 B1 d; u: P) B0 r
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3 h$ S/ B# P: Q7 q2 d6 t中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 - `8 n+ Q: W) s3 v1 W5 P6 x $ }! e( h! ?7 h0 Z 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。6 {* q+ ?0 B- s7 z: }4 h! R
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ; J6 N" O, L6 ~' q; b 0 d# v& S9 F @6 Q$ L 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 % O: q" w% | M% Q9 a- G9 ^ + q% D5 j$ q8 Y( B 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 + k! T( K* R3 e' X4 [6 c 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 $ i3 J' @( a1 j* N$ D4 p" u# c 9 S9 Y+ \, C. E; W; J/ j- T: ` 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 U, G& f9 t( Y* M9 r" a: p, `
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k; Z6 j- @( Z0 B* lRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters% v1 F. e) `" l8 S6 i$ S: k) C
6 l' P0 E4 @' T: g- s$ i; iBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 A6 J3 Q; m5 n& K( N / Q q; g! ]7 ]$ U9 z4 f) Z8 lA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 M9 \5 a: K/ E
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! U7 W; l" k5 Y* }6 H 9 ~; w, \$ n% I% \# s# ?After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 Q; l6 q$ r: B) r4 I+ ~ [
2 c/ T7 y" q7 F5 [& o2 mRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 q, A: p# o* q3 e* x 8 @4 p! S0 [! a) v7 tFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( ~2 W o9 {5 q) M! w! _
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 A9 \& R! H, F9 W6 B# V1 G ' G. `1 ?9 G+ g# ^"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % J. Y. l: J& \: B" e; Y
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 M3 y: v1 a+ q0 W; M$ h. l7 c( E( } l' i
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % E# a( }" `& p3 i/ {$ Z 3 \) T2 C* c; P; p9 ]$ e) WThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 k# z' a" p) r1 w- F/ H7 X
7 m$ k' N/ o+ P% c! VUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 T8 l" D; Q/ D6 L; G& c/ x$ H' {) @3 x6 K& z/ R; H
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 Q6 E" h' i% N+ D
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 l/ a: z! d) @, O0 }$ U8 |8 W! j4 `1 N
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( I7 J# d, s: ^ z
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # y# Y/ b4 ]. q: J+ Q' @ c& S5 `5 N% `/ X2 F
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 Z# G9 ]7 K# ^! N: t2 v) V9 X0 e# v9 q* Z. d# j0 W5 k" [$ i
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
