外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年) j: c# H) K( R4 a# d
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞# \3 H" |0 z* p" I+ ^
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。/ N' T5 H# G4 Z" S
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。2 ]+ k9 t. z9 v4 z
& r7 y [3 c+ Y r5 b2 k. r 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 C- I; O% S' q; w , X/ i6 s! e0 J; A2 b2 K2 I 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 % H- I z, Z8 v) L8 m! q# n _7 t' S1 ~. n1 D
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。% \2 G- k! X9 |7 x" u8 `0 t
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5 b' g8 m: ^, A3 Q
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) F: h! z/ K' u1 _& k$ R& l) k" g （责任编辑：杨海洋）: H, o' a+ ~" V- r' K2 K3 g
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. _ c% Q9 Q0 d6 t
# b# G( z( p! q! a# U5 uBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 W& Z0 n+ G+ J, v
7 S$ X$ I9 Q1 R4 s4 P) R1 r8 iA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * a- S3 |+ g! \. A# r8 C. ~8 M
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 u" \2 @8 o$ X4 E
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + w% _2 k# f# u$ C2 ]. J( M' A 8 [7 k3 g- A) ^9 ARoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % d. V+ F9 @. r( o. I- L: \
7 [% o% i4 N% }- u8 uFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : E) G+ S" \+ i; S5 f% b
8 {# A0 |) m! `0 |1 yThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " i. d" @7 m- l! G; M' h& h; f7 E: H " ?# O. A5 q; F& U) I$ l"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 ?- \4 J( K& J# F8 F9 S' h8 |- s+ A4 {) p8 b$ y A
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; e0 ^0 n [, @2 l! G1 [3 K* X8 h) H2 n1 ]
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 O+ g& @( z: X l8 t+ a; u& r) ]. k* P0 F! ?4 `' H
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( v+ A! ~" l4 |0 t+ o
& e. o9 Q+ G5 h0 i, d3 \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 Q P9 s4 U9 q2 D) V
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' \0 }( C2 x. Q) x7 I
# W& P( Q! I7 PIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + K# Z- }$ W, y. d6 s
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 o) R" Q) P5 ?% f ~/ P3 D- b& {2 m+ z' v5 W1 `"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + T/ H1 M9 K' }; f9 Z: Z; Z( B& d& Q8 G, ^' W# Z
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! L2 n4 } Y' [1 d4 ]
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
