; l, Y- p9 L$ l7 D/ W+ V 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 & r& n% A1 i4 L% R 1 n8 C) q1 c5 V6 E（责任编辑：杨海洋）% q- _1 S/ R2 U
/ k( y8 Z% o4 \: Q) [3 i" lRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / A' j' {& m3 {% r4 r, S1 k" a* J$ V+ c# ?: L
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 k% a" K8 I4 Q6 [5 I, M / m \- M! A3 u8 X& m: g2 Y- d8 e4 U! TA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ) H- r7 T( `8 S' c) ]; Y3 k
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & m6 d9 @7 j V, |7 ^; V, X( j7 l+ ]3 }
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; p6 t" v8 k g' a5 _ " P3 N; M& Z8 m% l) \; XRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + o ?- [( G9 ~5 L) d2 ] . Z; l7 N; `2 z' @! b/ xFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # x9 A5 B$ _% ~. @6 c, a0 j
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' R/ V4 W4 I8 a0 k% K / q$ y! t! j9 U U"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . y! t5 O, w0 q" }3 ~# G& o/ C# Z- p2 ^! ~5 K5 S9 w! T
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & k- S l: A+ P& ^! D- t/ D' \
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # y4 [& N) C$ Q+ x" K * L& W8 O _8 p9 U9 BThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) g- m. G0 _' t' w2 T
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( o7 Y% N7 r# M" H0 W6 @2 @/ f6 J5 H( u5 Y- Y. C0 o+ B5 Q6 {
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 e; ?/ p2 |1 _
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 o7 o5 M. M- P5 e3 j! @/ X& a. i6 R3 r
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . n# b+ L) n# h7 s. [) K " E5 e5 r( x) P7 i k"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & Q# y4 t; G. f' o0 {) J2 a) J
8 e, s! K) R2 v( M4 L6 PGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - h ~% s9 n, [6 d1 m0 A
