外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年! Y `' G n% R8 @
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 , o) m- ?" L5 t% A% K7 h + R7 i% P1 |# a) M: s) d& k . [0 }# Q" k y2 B0 W0 Z中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 7 _6 e4 {, Q2 l9 r# ~ 8 b& i T. W9 h2 W6 A 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % |8 x( U+ \( G# m+ V% [+ T+ d: P* U3 b+ W! o
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 5 m8 I2 e j0 Y- k! P, H7 a2 q/ ]) T5 K X3 k) L9 M+ T
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。7 y, m& h& D9 h3 Y: J& E
, y0 s& c c" r7 b0 s3 S& p: ?; f) s 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 C2 N' N% |& }8 }" \1 Q: G: A 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。6 {1 @0 d& P. \
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 3 ~& E( S5 c ~8 A @! t5 u F7 Q/ U8 [ m0 v7 w（责任编辑：杨海洋） : i; N# n C2 `: R$ W- k" O1 i! e # \" F7 M1 s- ?, HRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# a. x7 l8 U5 q, J/ S
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 R7 A/ N1 |* W' D* l: i- `5 ^4 {9 P1 F
x4 u9 \' ]' p6 Q; H1 {' VA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' u) b+ z5 I4 A7 O3 s9 K+ _: Q
. j. }1 O0 ]: rLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; \1 Q- J# d ?) v% R' z3 O * `# F! H! R/ U6 z' m4 QAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : ?, Y* Y8 X& j1 p
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 i4 W$ ^; _+ p$ s$ w2 N
; [9 Z; e( P" x5 cFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * S- @; r+ ~- K( V6 o! h5 I
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 M( y8 E2 ?4 ^$ L" G( P! a% u. |1 c5 Z5 H, C5 @& r# Z
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; H: T) |( _7 f/ `2 e4 y " L: f4 C1 y3 b4 z- mIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 v3 k9 N! a# }5 l) t8 U; q % \6 a: i' m& }Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # W) A. |# B) Z. e/ O' O$ P( [, W 0 S( E4 e- E) d% A" ?# l ?That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * V$ n3 e( J O# ?* y ( W) S& G4 ?% ~9 EUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " y& ]' X0 G0 s) r# B1 d
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; @ d) a ?7 p8 `2 j3 b( Q" X$ E! @/ H5 z
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / g- ]; R& z; d( n/ G
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 G- k3 m3 X6 v3 @, t
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 B, u f9 k- V. b+ o: v
- c4 J* ]* @, M. i+ lGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / g/ t2 I& w8 O! e" j 6 j! F& \9 i+ W$ i4 a9 W0 K( mThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
