3 y, t( ?1 W- _8 u; i7 g- n7 t7 Z& S 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。" ^) X# E. @% e0 C9 V# o6 [0 k
& E1 A0 D: `$ l! \7 K 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 . e. K, \: J2 p {: v! B' g) `$ v- r: H0 k" s
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。8 }, t( m; d+ c( U2 G* \
" o) M. e1 i4 W! q& s! C 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 ~2 O# S3 I! ^ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * z3 U# n4 M! U0 t% w% y8 p# A( ~# z: l3 P
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ( Q% f7 ^3 a& d3 r x* D, d/ Z/ d* X2 e" v7 l8 D0 i0 p （责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 m4 L* o, F. H, e0 M' v# u" W& {& s" N7 i5 f
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: }1 I& d6 k0 ]
# N" w7 m) ]+ y* A; `8 gBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 t* H% Y l& \
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 b% _9 S9 ?1 [3 Q/ h' ^+ r
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 Y* D- Z( O/ {0 h3 M% W$ ]7 Z 4 r% R6 g" i5 f, yAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! `# z1 z ]2 R6 p) x" }- A# ^7 A7 g6 Y- n# L1 b" z6 d6 c
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 c5 ? T! p9 G( v
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 R. i1 N4 Q8 U- J' n) U % P( t. S0 {0 ^This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " O( `8 Q- N9 P( W, i( I
) p/ ?0 C; r8 w3 ~"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 U. @2 t6 {: o& C y+ [' i" Y
$ j( d; M7 w* E6 _4 r% MIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' Z/ q k/ ]8 \4 _# i7 U; ?) J6 z t0 d: a0 f; G- W# b+ d1 X: sGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' |8 f& S7 i& `9 B h S6 v& p0 d* q2 b# Y! _. W
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + D, q4 X& ~2 N# k
* J5 W3 I9 ~" d; JUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 i9 u, h) }$ b% W$ O7 a5 m" b2 ]! x0 `
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 B2 p# j: K0 Y" s
% C8 u- R+ q8 `If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. }; r5 `: A$ R7 m9 V$ m: u5 ] ]9 O, J- ~; a: `1 M
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & A, o" g" Q! A4 u; m1 i
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . @4 q- n/ ~; m1 ^* Z0 u: g9 o" F. ^! b& Z# D
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' S% u% M& L/ @$ {. F6 |- Y: S m% ?
