( ^5 k3 G+ _! K 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 U2 A+ h6 G4 n5 p" a0 ]& p% U$ Y # `& Q; \4 s+ F7 i/ _* |4 P 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。. ]! e& b( y- f% {
8 F0 x3 O. o- X0 V 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 u0 S+ Z/ d, x; `! s& [7 ^ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - H" B0 K- ]% O% U8 X5 r " x* U' V! ~! ^; F. n _ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 & ]. a {! |" @" O: R. {+ L & ]9 d0 ?$ Y0 I8 \2 `) T（责任编辑：杨海洋） + n3 _- c/ G& m* |# J& Z. n 2 `' R, Z0 m" l$ \" \- aRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 y* O$ c3 A! e- G
. R' y7 U ~4 B0 g: fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 r% b8 w0 x" S7 \' i9 P/ m0 O' H e
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' w j( e: c( \& s
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 A4 L5 K( _) @
( W5 P1 w" \2 Q5 @+ zAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. n+ i8 f4 M# o D& m
" d0 Y) s/ ?' o; gRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 Q( t! b" Z3 T/ f) o& {8 ?' ~$ |8 O4 g4 }( s& L1 j, X
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ J- ?& {. w, |6 V6 f& X3 R: Y' j5 |+ i/ L, a
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! A' w+ u8 q) J) ^
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 Y# E& n1 g* F$ E$ W6 @
, |5 c6 K2 O: V( kIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 A, X" u2 Q9 F; G
0 [5 V6 l4 Q! Q+ DGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * {1 I* z, P# l2 b% x% m1 r
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ u* q: \% \0 _+ {" c# v
1 x. V. F& Q$ G, C3 ?Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / T6 l- ]1 S/ E9 m; Q/ a
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( q6 p' W" H7 f5 Q6 b
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . F5 Y8 d: G9 | ! C; N! p# h. j4 Z" LInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) n! c( A! H# X8 o 6 o$ x# ^6 m; f5 F/ ~"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ C0 T Y1 e" P _" @- E) c 1 E' m4 y, r! m: lGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : b3 e' ? Q. F8 r; \& l% x" @2 o
) k5 d8 a, Z: O% \. `Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
