外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, o, E" i& L2 F
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 # `& Q( {+ s8 ]# e# z# x6 s' P: U5 N; N a3 h
( x4 m6 I' G$ N! F: h中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # I% }) s. w' B( @4 m9 g / F* k E5 w/ S 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 f$ F" t. z5 j6 a, O0 h& M" ], Y5 @) ?& B
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 * j6 d& O9 E4 g) F 3 @* n5 e6 n1 Y) b" o2 { 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。5 P* l/ t) i' O; t t1 r" G
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ r( r; J: K2 I& z) o 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 0 k8 ]; }1 j* K7 y( t8 q. R u/ l( |/ v
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 ~: m! K! m3 H) x $ `) x* G9 y, u2 \（责任编辑：杨海洋） / H6 d- N. Y8 q# B" L% p( }; @0 d5 T# z# O
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : [: x& C1 T7 I, C5 W5 S* G; z9 X3 Z: X: m9 f% I" Y" u
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 P c0 ~ v2 n: {( B* L4 W5 y9 e) \, q3 k$ a5 {
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 r$ U, r0 b2 q5 i7 C$ n: ^$ P+ h
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 K9 k% O! B5 A/ X; H3 E# N
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % X! O* u0 B: f* h9 b1 G . S8 e* T/ P+ ZRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 K+ m X: O7 q# @1 L: J, b. ~$ s: @4 r
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 E7 @3 H7 n$ H0 F6 C
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " m$ I, T) g% M: I* i* K & a1 t' f; r1 p* `' Z"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 u7 M- x* K" @) Q. Z
+ `. S; D$ C3 m9 _- q$ k+ bIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 e2 u4 m* `' S2 ]
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # c5 j" I/ w8 h
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) C- f: f) q l3 w9 K" k$ d; A! g7 d3 h$ M" {0 ]5 e5 p7 b% z* h* P7 n
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 U1 \+ x& ~ ]: c- V" v; c0 T$ e- j6 R, r4 m5 p2 L2 \
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ q1 t+ @2 G& l6 p% I0 s ! M m7 o( e7 K2 D( m2 v0 P% O% sIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) B+ W+ D' G* D B* V) F
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & {2 M, Y, ]1 v! y+ W* T( O; p, p/ G* b6 L, n
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) ~# @. D6 M" Y: d A7 b h+ m% ?2 I5 y7 [) x" }' QGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 c1 t f8 N5 u! K+ L- i9 X/ ]# F! o. V
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
