: P0 Y6 b4 v. C; B4 ~中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 2 B h/ u5 E6 h# z9 i. N1 v ; k' z& `3 w) } 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 : J: C6 y2 ~! A0 } $ O r7 e) t0 {. X1 B/ f 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。2 f% B6 Z, W3 S7 C! w/ t. r" t8 c
2 \8 L! c4 ~; q) a ^! `+ D 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。. o/ k/ E+ p6 a5 P5 i8 G: h
1 J* }" a3 H0 D) m! V! u1 L! i! d 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。" ?0 X) M8 m# x# `/ M% u! W
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 w6 `0 L0 K4 o* w/ r" |9 X" n8 v
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。( z/ N3 J' N/ a% q- I6 L' @
- B4 L' Z, N" |' o( M# p （责任编辑：杨海洋）# X! I0 p# t e- c6 y* S
4 e1 N$ q' M9 ~' D' m. y8 g5 w+ t; iRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / ]4 T5 p& h5 I6 F* n- B* L- J$ a% ^' M. N
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! X$ H8 j% [4 U% P' R8 _ b
?. G9 H- S, `A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , V4 P) ]! S3 X* \, ]9 u+ ?1 C
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' j( I0 }( D/ l5 P# |3 s/ M/ `9 H1 E$ b3 f
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ p: `, d/ N" @: r( `; V6 H ' i+ G8 f% r/ S- p# y0 d+ hRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) j+ W M. \) q9 }. e" I) \( d6 y8 {6 C2 [
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) q7 C/ k% P U4 h2 o& @ g2 N4 b( M7 P& M8 } GThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . O" s( l- P; Z- X
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 i9 }7 y$ M% l6 r/ ^0 p s ; Z9 w" v5 k1 IIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 O( h n6 y; {2 e5 J+ m- Q
; z5 H* i& i+ D, _/ kGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " x" v9 D! d7 Q0 R) x1 T' N. H
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ f+ J9 h. ^' l2 W , v: l1 `: z" M% IUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' H7 e) R: A/ {' c7 |( v* Y) Y% n K3 h- f$ s- h v
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ) P) V& J. O* |
* W) g' N1 I: \/ |If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 Z- h" _; |0 i" G" E0 X; D( A7 d 4 }: l8 ]5 @6 NInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' Q5 _% P- w: @9 f' \, T$ w / U( Q1 C0 |6 z6 I. F7 {"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 L' \7 x2 Y& {# I. e ]
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " n& p, V( q: b
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
