外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年/ M$ l! _( ]2 A) P" |0 ~
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 Q2 n# k) v3 a2 l8 L6 B
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9 W1 D# p& s' t$ T( h0 l中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。6 I, }2 p6 v1 z% k; E b/ `0 H y
+ c& e) q0 f( E, S. I 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; I% ` x6 v: m5 k; O 7 \# M& \2 p# Q8 x' @9 C; s 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。. Z2 X1 V" f* w, H+ h2 w, ~- [
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ( u7 v& \8 u* G3 q# Z; _5 z 5 p9 [5 p! \8 d 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。9 Y! y1 o$ \& u k
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 U4 [2 W5 T! L K5 H+ d- q' I, @& B- s0 V
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。4 n$ L$ P1 q$ g5 p
3 v4 x* N) G6 \ A8 _（责任编辑：杨海洋） 2 B; E9 z6 q9 D# \9 J* A8 w ; X( ?. ] A# u. e6 U6 @Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) h9 ~1 _4 m( V- r% ^; h
* l& Y9 d0 T( ]3 a+ \, ZBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 m# `3 o, m2 m% } # G; w, ^) t: N0 G$ SA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. l( x8 ]7 @' `2 T$ r9 n, r! p; j! u% F
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 p( _3 C* }6 r& \, I
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 5 |, ]1 b2 X+ Q1 h0 u1 T: n& Q, [' b8 b+ T# i, p$ Z* l
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 p. ?- X6 \1 N' V; _# l ( B5 G- \8 p+ t5 Q! z# bFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + Q+ D+ a4 s; F n# B5 Q; y7 s
3 c0 P! A, V1 U+ @# B8 N) Z" J0 J) n, ^' VThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 a! b }# i, P, j" t 2 l' P7 ]6 k* D" R"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' R# _' D: _ r& u: U ^: l 3 I V4 L! z$ j! }+ zIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - d" m r' t' J( b7 P0 ^8 O 3 c; S# [; v7 R/ L$ X# L" GGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + \7 `6 Z( F# K4 d4 H8 m2 m
. b" ~, L7 d/ A7 tThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : r5 R$ M( A2 f# _/ [ D3 S+ ?
0 r$ Y0 w% k1 X: s1 U/ |Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 [0 \ W* B! K+ M- M r $ j/ r0 {6 n& k2 j; XChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + Z* b9 G/ m c8 E5 V7 l
9 e' K8 W, u1 y4 o L3 b; z$ a. NIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 e( F7 U; ~( V* g w0 J/ j6 U- ~, p r. S5 g8 Y+ s1 G3 j' g
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " v7 Y( f4 w/ H0 ^8 O $ N/ k3 H! F2 N4 V- g' \3 N"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 X+ T8 i1 @% N6 G
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : [/ P% }5 C# M5 S/ R5 Z/ W* h" D% ]
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
