& ]0 y- z4 j) d- i a 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。. w9 I8 p) o9 G/ k" c5 G
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。, w4 h, o& e1 _
; A) U; f$ X1 x1 f 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 - m$ h1 r# I6 c* K ; ]" x# K6 z' _7 B4 x& I（责任编辑：杨海洋）- W8 P& [2 S) I( [
/ Q2 \( C3 q$ d) o+ |0 pRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters! I9 T+ ~0 ~* M' a. O3 m
7 C$ y) t& D9 t, C7 Y; OBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # o% L0 ^2 Q. b1 _8 I# r
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # Y4 ]; h6 S' P; D& I$ [) [) ^4 Z9 E% _$ \5 W
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 j3 a$ L; @7 N % T$ @# A. J# _7 V! ZAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! |% Z! d6 D6 L* r1 n( k# t/ q : j \5 R$ w9 DRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 s+ f5 x% m: A/ E" y1 v) p6 O7 E0 Y7 R; v2 ]8 W) ^
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! W, Q( u0 X! N' M: X" z7 T- K0 \/ I: E
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. + O+ Q: [/ q% n/ J/ I9 k
& `$ a3 o9 G& b, f"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. l: U1 n) [( u3 M1 |2 ^4 V
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 ^ a; r/ _# _
6 }- W' R4 r8 z0 U# T' CGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : E/ S, r0 I, Q1 n
0 m9 t+ x/ L8 x. d6 o# b% c; S& oThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 q. q/ R0 ~* O5 p9 _4 F2 R* \ 9 t5 @0 [+ a9 \0 TUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ; A2 X' m! D; l& A" o) H9 T; Z- r 7 a9 R7 ~, b) |' X! q4 UChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + o: `* Y' |; B M0 ~. W3 }' T
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 C l2 `4 n$ \& C5 e
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! c$ C; v0 s1 e# \/ G0 P8 s0 [
m h5 }) m/ b3 E7 ]' U"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' O( p( K0 j& j {* O : W, H8 b6 r/ rGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , [, R# x+ e( d6 e5 f
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
