; m. Z$ q4 H7 E. {$ o% m * i6 a' m0 R. h1 G
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。# w4 ]8 w; f; o1 z
& c& t- z! x" r. Z) U+ A 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* `' Q8 G5 y- b0 c5 E% t' ]
: F0 g+ t' X7 I( `% A 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。$ A- U: u0 k! K( T% g6 _4 e& x
' u7 k7 w. ^, F. ^. ~0 u8 x
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。# y( Z' ]+ r$ s# Q* Y7 G' \( L9 Y
- b4 E# l, z, {5 m+ S 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 % l$ @5 s4 c7 S+ X7 \; \9 ` 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - h0 O& d \# ~5 \ Q+ c( S, @; o1 k' M
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。5 Z' U- P, I2 y' |, s
3 T5 u4 y7 G8 S+ k3 t$ r! c4 |+ }$ A （责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 S3 `# |4 W" ~* J3 E) W) B 5 W0 `8 v& e0 a6 p# R! ]Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 u( H# m0 L5 `! {* f y! J: ~" M+ i/ g7 Q8 Q3 s
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # B2 ]6 {$ s2 x( v$ t2 p$ ~ 5 |9 Z5 |+ R; R! i) IA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 r& u6 Q! W) s- g) x , Z. A, p {2 V+ c" ?Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. {- u- v7 M4 K- L5 _' v; o; R3 c/ |: x
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 H r- D2 l* V! K : I9 \3 N2 l6 c6 f( @" dRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( u% r$ Y, ?8 |) i5 n% S, [
/ q) U' A0 l V- [First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " h9 M6 h# y& y3 [. x$ X
9 m) r( z3 a& Q1 o1 IThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 I# z. r! ?8 X& M7 G) t+ y* r8 v$ G% f+ U% Y5 g; d7 [
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 m$ C2 o* t1 G, |+ v. J: Z7 {6 w* q; G* M: s
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . R# h4 T) H' ]
0 s7 G) ?/ U' E6 i; n: i8 E7 ?Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : T; I( H8 V& j1 V% m $ A7 t$ {( D) `& x- _That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' d( n+ p: m$ F
% y M5 Y w0 h! Y& e0 x
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / t1 s& y5 D" s' h; v
/ S) I$ t/ B7 G
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + w1 @) G+ y% w }
% c5 q) u, L/ f5 [& O! J; uIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " h# n. _% n# H X+ ~ 8 v- i* C# V1 |International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 z# V; Y+ m2 Y6 g; M/ L* ]% k: _ ) s4 w, k" ?& z"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - @7 o" R2 Y* [" P # c' P9 ]' e/ s: N2 s# W& u- iGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + ] U$ R& Y' G7 l7 [7 h( O7 k- J- z/ X3 J1 M6 o
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
