外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 5 }& x6 f) P! t/ V" n, P5 \2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 5 f9 n5 v9 \& q2 ?: F/ O, O& R' r7 ], M3 t" W2 Q# L& U
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。. _) l9 J8 S' ~1 I" r6 p2 f! ~
- u, w8 c2 g* ~9 T 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 l0 k+ \ u( S/ B \) v: o) D4 E/ x7 c3 n6 T' Z! P! R( x
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 f# b7 S' _* j) H2 | ! ^# R- o( i7 R9 P; p0 V% L 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, j$ d6 k5 S" T3 |0 N9 f1 v k
1 j5 B: t) n) R5 _8 K 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' Q0 S' }( F7 C! g% D$ m 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。1 b/ ?( d5 `! J/ f9 T1 Q
! U6 X. Z t0 f 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ! P2 [& D* k7 s7 X& H' i4 }& e- M/ W5 ^8 L （责任编辑：杨海洋）! Y9 g+ Z& S7 V4 n
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 S( h8 O; I3 F! K4 T
& ]& N8 X8 ~" O0 v$ iBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( x$ j# |3 q/ k4 F0 F: M! N
# D6 u* W. Z5 O2 A8 ZA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' q6 @4 F+ E. D* Y9 ]$ b
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) G' m8 b* C7 b3 t. q6 Y5 W ; N7 c; G* W& d G, bAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % h0 r, U$ \4 J0 A
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! h$ [) K* F: X- d* \0 a9 y1 w4 F; T0 w2 K$ `7 Y
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' D6 }- M9 E- x! B- U " O9 h! r# a$ Q, ZThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 1 E$ p+ n4 I8 V# x; J. J; x
, k6 |: ^ y8 _( R2 I0 S$ T"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' L% o; P. h4 R* V2 B2 m {. e4 B! F/ Z; b0 bIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & H8 e( k( r1 x* |- w7 a
4 P: E4 B5 v- T1 c4 N# w- bGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 |: ^) i! \9 Y& C" I, E A
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 E: K- Z- s6 O @+ f0 J9 H* | 0 p# v+ f/ ]0 @Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 e' q ?& A# G. Y1 i9 X # r) v0 |& K0 D5 R! bChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , Q$ S+ Z9 v9 v7 q
+ ^5 p% Q, F- |) T8 F; a3 A7 w7 D: sIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; C5 O' l- }% M u9 Z! a8 K/ Y. [ 4 Q7 ~4 M" x8 E9 I1 r( @International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " X# ], X; i5 C% [: t7 ~ & y1 Y, p: B3 A8 E/ g7 O"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % _! M( z! Z: U# q) |/ m' P* Z8 K$ \
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. s7 S( p( T8 q" k* w9 |3 e6 S% g0 N9 `3 q7 U& j
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
