8 e8 l6 k. E8 f3 Z/ k中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。2 ]6 B* G0 o+ n9 V
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 7 w2 K/ g; J3 A1 z% v# {/ V; h5 \6 J2 B
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。) P7 \/ ?; M1 w% t& `" t
4 _5 P5 A z5 [2 `: O+ X6 ?" f 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 ~# E( \$ |/ e% t! l6 Z5 l# R- R
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。8 e. R7 o+ L7 X4 R* g
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。- k2 f; i, q8 Z
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。7 q4 V1 F" S `8 _6 ~
$ H( M3 E* d) K- z3 u: q; {: K- X（责任编辑：杨海洋） " `& [- `: \$ s" C2 L" N1 K( ~# M: Y6 b) E! T. {
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters- i' o% E( i# j
r. R, }) Y1 QBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! c: k! z# N4 @& ]; j: g# ~, p5 s. X1 @( q7 Y8 m
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 a$ A# b2 s! M; B, S2 [0 W+ _: C0 { " k+ G/ E Z; ?( a( q0 U aLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + J# L6 ~" _, @/ W' W 6 R. Y+ l2 H5 t- ZAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 i* Z2 U4 F+ b
- f4 g2 u5 Y' n: _. ?6 g! s" g, iRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 }* t6 n. g" |/ u1 u% U0 U 1 [% c. m- L) [. W# t5 h* V YFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / ~" N' g+ B7 h4 g% }- m# ?- i6 W$ b+ u2 n4 P
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * p% f6 b$ L. @
$ b a0 S' f, S2 G8 l* k6 ?& `"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " N) ^ j2 V# ?& K6 x' ^5 q
6 C! _4 K# P' z; gIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % l- t' i4 C1 I. }$ T, j2 i ? b* _ Q2 o, m) ~
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ l! J. u% c/ k, M& R8 ~4 T9 |9 D
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. y0 s4 J0 Q& K% ?' A" c U" r: ? & K, u& I2 ? i3 C0 \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! W* g3 n7 S+ @! A$ E8 \% { |. H. S
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : I5 B2 K, r% ~5 I! J( r& j
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . }, d# ?* c* @! l/ i7 b; V. K
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 n. ^! K* M! J" H% v* ?
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . C! R8 }+ R; \: F* c: L6 N0 t' R1 G
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 C9 \$ v7 J3 p! { 8 [: J- T" S. |- i3 DThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
