外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年! G* G8 B1 d2 T9 D K; T- u
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 : |! r' w$ n. h- |3 W ) V8 @ D+ m. U! m- q. a5 l 8 m$ T, ?) J. Q中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 0 i& m1 v6 o9 b2 X6 u! W5 \9 l8 _/ o3 N0 u
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。, j9 P' c z' m) ^4 q
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 m$ a7 O; l$ O: J+ M# I& \
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ; ?; h @- {8 _3 d, S j+ R/ M" Q2 d( j9 b# g
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。; q% Q6 w3 b! L4 F0 R! s, _1 Q
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# B$ B( d" ^$ }( H* R$ b+ G0 U
4 x* d1 i5 q- v' r- [9 @3 ~ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。/ R- l' o: g H
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% V* R& y; [ T0 yRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# n# d0 _% G+ v* h/ J, `0 m( D
% b$ Q, ?4 N6 s, c1 {2 E# h4 hBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 T9 z! p' s1 E7 y; l; T
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! r H9 K. r! a2 ^' {1 L
4 x* m U$ z9 ~5 x4 ]- DLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 h& S5 q$ g4 U* Z7 e0 f0 Z" S0 E- ~5 Z( M5 H- ?: f
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 B9 _2 t8 _ N! m6 I! ^/ @$ o
- w7 O# ^- O8 J4 `5 P* mRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " }- Y0 y; T/ [ U# m, {0 B
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - q$ z+ U# K3 E
, N5 B5 D4 e- J5 k4 qThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 i* W* h6 w: N/ K5 `: Y7 c
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 b* p' l+ }1 z+ g
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " \7 b8 V2 a) Y1 ]% ]8 {
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' G- }, |9 H5 c2 F1 z n
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # j! L5 `6 T0 A8 e- E7 i o
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * X( d! U6 P& B2 |7 ~) Y
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . \% C; Y9 i* K( F2 v+ u3 W7 F* N& z3 X' t/ K
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 i5 z: O& ?- u+ M1 [" ] : `" v q: D* I6 b. U+ DInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - r2 g2 E# b& I6 N( C ]
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - Z2 y" b$ o: `2 ]! _* [# p6 R8 |" h) Y, ^7 Q4 i$ k
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. p; |3 x3 \4 x3 H1 k/ F ( {6 N. h+ h+ [- k+ Q$ F9 lThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
