外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 A) L. w. l; w4 m2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 6 r* z2 m. \- z2 E : B* V. }5 e- v: {, z$ g5 f / W7 r( Z( V. a' l! j" J) H中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 h% T& ]2 F! j+ o5 O/ u
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 / |: w7 g5 w4 w) E& i + g4 E8 P* K- N- }+ h9 |7 o9 o8 c 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ) g8 e7 _. v3 _. w$ X* l& k( y$ U, O5 d9 L! F. @
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 9 i: u5 M7 K$ |4 k0 ^) L% E* {" `& F
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。$ b8 Q. F' g1 c! n
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。% ~1 \* } r7 m* g/ h2 z [
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' c' H3 B& A+ P) N- f4 Z, c1 i& D; _5 o/ ^6 J% p) Z7 K （责任编辑：杨海洋）6 @7 J) M K2 D5 R+ c6 }# c
+ ^, F9 |9 m9 ^9 ERunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters' z; K6 c+ }5 U% v6 @
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 u+ ?. w, i8 m: c( [7 n: { . L9 G! q* v, F' dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. o2 L4 h* [2 Y
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 \" r6 c# y( Z! w0 j( P0 z8 L8 X/ A( ?: d( l+ X* {3 {
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. - ]1 }% U( I/ i8 P9 v! z& b 2 X: _6 L; o$ F9 E* \Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 ^8 t+ z" u" B) T
' g3 P) c3 F9 i* V }; ^% yFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % G6 I6 O. Q6 F: u1 j# K! j7 [9 J6 p4 m* L/ ?/ k
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' ?* \, n7 w2 B, [0 d0 `6 `
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; P# Z" \. o; ?" H, V' S' B
# e( ?4 x$ A6 H q9 N7 d1 DIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 E1 @+ [6 t( m( s5 E9 t+ M! Q
$ K( V4 h" b1 T+ |; q7 lGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , I/ ]; N- Q; P' u& x5 Q) M2 n, x
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , X3 J A* U9 M" C9 C6 r
5 f* \6 r, m5 \0 O! a8 OUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + X6 s" a/ t' D* [1 _
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 e( p; t, _) I3 O6 C6 h1 U2 W / T4 R' z. n, C4 u( i3 E( {If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 j C& D6 S8 x5 h2 z
' W5 d0 J9 V( M5 M' T+ l* v- b$ }International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 i d2 r6 S3 E# d: C! R% m" d% Y2 C2 b8 w
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; X Y8 u1 p" ~$ I) I r- m
$ x7 `. P; f$ u$ Z1 yGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : R9 d# W6 M, `
: C) U% V. Q0 p1 H% s: lThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
