外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年6 A: G6 k0 N+ h
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 / z$ u) c2 h* d, D$ |4 m $ B8 u& L8 T/ d: P 1 {9 f' b! D; Y* ], J中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。# {; w, R! P* M8 p
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 1 G$ q0 d+ f/ }5 M( D5 \: p; S , {4 v% ?) G+ W7 s, e5 B 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 0 N7 w0 \0 U( ^, T/ \( I, _) h% H ) d0 S3 D/ p4 X 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 - S* l$ M& e" A t3 Z2 L. I0 m; O8 J1 G/ e" O" l7 t: E* k
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( U9 \ F x. R$ ^; Q 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。! X& I$ l5 N- I
" _% ]: @3 f! U3 J4 \ K 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! d2 }( ~7 V5 @. w) q/ L- H% u: S# I
" X5 e z; q. f. E. H4 Z+ Z( N5 D （责任编辑：杨海洋） # t. f. x/ o, `8 {2 a- ?4 C( B 8 r: b0 }9 {5 N; m+ B) VRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters6 m( L9 t! q( D+ \# S: @
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & o3 J: R7 _5 b! A$ A; P5 n' C( i2 B; K4 c
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 d! q6 Y+ O* i- n; r$ H# B! L5 b: n, U! c1 C
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 v6 I" j$ `. A5 w- S5 l
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' j- z7 f: R& |* Z( ?
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) D9 Q+ k/ l" ^) _) r+ z6 F) Z$ p6 W% K0 o
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( j+ y/ O6 D" V + Q* S( e' p4 y8 d6 tThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. O. U! i0 b, t$ V6 J ! F* K5 Z# m+ T( d"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 h/ \' T5 }3 f" g$ g) e5 n . f4 A9 l* \5 N2 i( i: PIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 o# Y. `& [" x1 {6 {8 H( z
" P; i/ j7 l2 H( }' \! PGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 M1 t$ e0 W9 w: ^: \; u: ~1 b3 f. y3 y) R: H% [, V
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' s# n" Z3 y* E% o7 D9 j7 g
/ b! J& y |0 q) HUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 L9 s ?0 g4 P% x: r ' r8 q! e, ~1 h! Y, {+ {China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 B) y; M5 {- i
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " a) f. P% l3 l5 ]# h b
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # H& G R, Q8 s. F* G; b
' V* b# ~8 H! Z& n$ \"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 S2 h. T2 F- A% M1 c- W5 X+ [$ y
, [! n0 B* K4 U; SGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - E0 o; m- e' d. F2 C : L6 [' O9 ?; W# r' H2 _2 ~1 xThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
