外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 " z& D! @5 C9 y9 }2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞3 `, @" g# n0 P) r/ r
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5 `( G N9 s6 V. b中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。% V) z i- w. K( f' f. ~) ?8 i& d
3 H6 f' e, L# J1 A 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 K9 c& ]! |4 o) b! K5 r
2 ]5 D5 e" u. ]% Q( g3 H （责任编辑：杨海洋）6 M* M" q( b& b
' f5 t1 r' F% f' ]( R: P# tRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters + @$ S0 N3 v1 o0 v $ }6 a( h9 S2 Q2 [9 jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " T% D( p2 N5 S7 m) E& c% K/ E
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + N( _- [" V' Y4 d; v& }9 z2 s2 s w3 {- q+ o; S& BLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * [: y9 T* y1 Z5 g5 S' E, k0 O1 J9 M& `
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 U7 b/ Y/ t$ t1 @! h. N7 P8 z - i$ u2 g8 [' |! N' VRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # f2 O3 o* c0 d7 \" y 7 B& [3 R/ A: g% W$ i8 xFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # N% J: \% |! Z: y/ k; N7 E& z
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : Q0 r8 ]" k& P; \* [6 C
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' o! G$ u0 x$ Y# ~4 w, ^
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 K4 f, o" V/ {( W- k( l
/ i! G+ a' z9 Z: DGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * ]4 A9 k) M8 a7 O4 |4 l( J9 N0 m9 S, G" @$ M" b8 o# u9 ]
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * g* |7 b6 M: F! u0 L. i- D
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / X: b d+ {4 [* L, V . `' Q/ G I+ T+ ~! d9 e3 _China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . n7 r# A5 H5 ~- P1 f4 D% g) _: \7 Z3 V% z' ?* B2 P" ]. `* |6 T
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 L) u5 v7 L$ y% D0 J1 S) M
3 y+ U" B6 q1 y4 R# lInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + S' Q; t& f& W3 X0 J9 p( s: O8 S5 x* [! |# @& D0 h8 `+ p
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ p% a1 V7 q$ t9 z ~5 K
- [- I! Z% ^1 X, A* J& I% yGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) ], R& q) R2 A3 D: I! [; E
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
