6 i1 k2 t& D! P# X! A! x8 s 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。: ^7 E8 J, r* H, Y2 d
0 h' Z- _5 ~/ H3 A/ w n4 x 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。: i# G/ e! w; K: }. C& R
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 , f! O7 S* a3 `6 L) C4 i( b) Z. I1 a3 K% e5 ]/ l3 O
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。$ u' ^3 d) I7 _) x* @8 y
6 P! @* ?) s* w+ C/ @5 [3 t （责任编辑：杨海洋） $ C2 ~! a. r6 F/ |9 _ i/ E0 i * W% p6 s- i9 @1 b: }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 0 f& c3 i* V! x5 T% ~& J0 I8 K) r " n9 _4 D# H. dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 o) [ j6 N% j5 s* \% m$ k
# C* q8 S) ^/ mA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 D( f5 b( h; Z% V9 o# P+ Z1 t% S) b
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; c8 [" _4 U. R- r. B1 v6 H5 k% n$ a) v. w- w. q0 }7 ~4 U7 U1 l4 N
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + P+ `7 t$ U7 g( P- ~% e3 G0 P) N$ {$ u. H j4 s. }+ ]' t1 G5 x
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 c- q6 Y( A" N- U$ B% }5 c . ^0 e# x! N! N$ }# WFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : u/ {: Z- G4 B% b( P9 R2 q9 N& q P- i, J7 r f
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 F& l# }+ h, J8 J ' R' m! @2 l$ G"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 L9 M! K/ G" S9 a* u& V! B! @. [: H# L
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . Q% t' L" L+ R1 p1 s9 s# P) F9 o . e! D9 A) ]1 K! x9 nGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' z1 J& Z- ?& ^5 \2 d- z# B4 l1 x
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : d6 M. r$ Z6 |3 S/ m8 @1 t8 G- a: Y
$ J) e; a' s1 NUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , L' w6 F1 e' \' Y
3 x1 E5 \; S) j5 T, y- jChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; ~$ ?3 c+ u0 c) b6 k$ K7 X . |" \/ @- N. E0 e6 B) h8 TIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( ~) I2 K! V& N; h 1 @6 m( A V- O8 Q$ o' m3 \, ~International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' s9 }+ `8 S+ _2 K- E
& h* U1 Z! M9 h"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 Z- h' M* k# n" g1 e; X- r5 r
+ L! W; D% c, F+ l$ c. ZGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 B3 Z& x2 O5 x: ^ , r9 [2 q# Z* o; S- H7 t+ N+ yThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
