外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年0 \. D) E2 X1 C( h2 ^1 M: n& f
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 & l T& B- Q% [3 A Y% ~* \ . `' R, z. j J4 F 7 C* P, n4 R0 L2 n9 Z中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。6 X( j0 D- G: j& o! g2 ~) O
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。7 m* {* V1 C; \6 T$ w# O
2 L, Y; B! Y6 l5 l0 ?" b) P; h 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。$ M1 Y4 T! q- x) `
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。* }& u6 M5 r; I
4 j3 G0 L; v# h* f- T4 l 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 }, e, w$ O' G8 o 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * P) L9 ^% f8 q; S0 A4 @( D 1 O7 J$ R" {8 B 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。# i$ G" \" Z, Z! f9 p3 L- N
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 z8 }8 Q5 E( N m/ g; G% g
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) O( R+ i2 E1 Y6 O1 m
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * X" p' V. K9 Y( a+ s3 s& S& ]1 I: D# P& T
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : `* S/ c4 d" D# y/ K; `* y; P
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 H! y4 L2 R( _8 g. \. O; ?: |3 Y6 i
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ; \1 O# J2 j8 E# X5 d0 `
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / v6 z7 `7 R2 {. | B8 y8 D8 t' @! r- \( Y$ r
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( N0 u! M, |! X: p0 X) ~ Y( s( d: |& K
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - W W. W4 z5 S+ o) j1 G. D$ h ! a$ N" q4 _9 x0 J, _+ m) HIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 i4 ?5 t ^+ c6 H % _% K7 p; T) j9 c; s" l. ~Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' T7 r e: c/ ^* ?& a. o1 w
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - ]1 b& _8 N S
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " L8 D/ |3 k% Y; |. B$ J$ Q. \+ H6 u2 i% Z; k' \
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 G2 [6 p- f; Q- B: N1 Y1 L* S1 p: _9 t
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( @ ^/ d0 [6 R$ }
- Y- W$ n7 P8 u+ Z% s1 OInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 ~# l9 u$ V+ w9 e2 y- G: h7 v- d
% m/ C5 y' ^! {9 y4 }6 y! X/ o6 A"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) l4 l$ D$ z+ C* V7 X P% v0 h 4 \6 P- U% f1 x$ j4 FGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 T. J1 J# z N G( Y# N; ?7 E
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
