外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 9 C4 D }$ R% s/ S. ]2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞4 e _, p/ a3 ?$ Q; y; }2 N
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。0 t6 Y$ u$ b6 L8 x3 r, ?
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 7 Y5 E0 P/ i. C, H' n" s; h/ L6 \8 S+ Z* [! S5 ~$ V2 S
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。( z6 f$ r. C+ h. y4 A
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。5 S/ F' z; a3 n
4 a9 G2 l- \, s0 T 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& t. e) B7 W% ]# F, E
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 z0 }5 ]% ~3 d. ^
1 l D. r: N s5 d; V 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。. Q. }0 K' j! M" k
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : j+ Q+ q& A) ~2 z) P- u9 L3 j+ K# T3 h2 }& A1 @
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 o1 I" Y$ O. z/ t- _3 T3 f
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 Z6 v3 S- J" ?7 l/ ` 3 M9 Y% s' G$ h/ C- `$ }9 hLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " F9 {) P8 I0 i' q% ^
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , e' }# N; R6 [6 \' l9 u. m+ d$ x @) M( R$ v; O
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. p% B) G( u' f3 z5 u; b* l
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 l! v9 m* o# B. M. s' u4 |$ T( ~' [: H+ S# h, o |) P
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' e* S9 P+ J% e$ l- u2 ] 0 O& x. D u7 g0 ^) K+ ~& A) Y"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 T% d Q3 k6 Y' k5 n( R9 w, V o6 V* e. {3 n8 G, z! ]% l+ @
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " M. U- y3 J& x6 T3 l& y5 Q$ J
. F& V: _) e$ V7 K \Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ b/ c/ s- \) N6 K% Z0 K) z$ p& G: F' ~ q0 C# S! o' e
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 w3 a2 J: @- [5 B
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # c3 m1 X: k$ U . T; F# {2 ^8 V! ~8 @China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' F2 w1 M* m. j+ Z6 P6 y4 `. o# k! f
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ ]6 D J: t" i
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) x: X# b2 o0 o: c( t' U
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + ], Z% W2 t* v3 ^
( t. o5 k' _# g( I9 g4 l [Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 T( j' i& ?/ s6 T4 Y
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
