外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年1 g* r4 _9 T/ h. F
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞# z, e- K g, J( x% I
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 |( r( K/ f7 H0 C! a5 z% ?
/ \6 A r& {' {0 f 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 x/ P- ~; B" G9 V) O8 U8 f) a! d% p4 ^, T5 O* V3 k
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 0 R! E3 T+ U) X7 @$ `9 R* z 5 S2 b8 b) J5 m& V4 d$ E 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 M2 k" W- z9 z1 p9 G, d6 L' g
~" k2 |; B3 U; p0 t" y0 R, |) g 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( N' { E! Q7 a4 Y1 z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" g' A. ]) B, J) T; \
' c' @1 _1 ^! F: I( [) O$ Q' Z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' H: F: m3 [7 \1 E$ @4 a& c% @5 I' I8 [ （责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 n/ _, x& L8 i 4 _3 g% J3 F# y+ s' s$ `9 l; kRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ! ]/ \$ C7 M- m1 z# Y2 l ) Y' l$ u- O+ O3 iBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / i8 j; R7 T/ w& U
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ z8 `% A) G* c2 c- K, l' x! ?% v: D C T! s
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # i1 [ R: L, K/ C2 Q5 o! |2 C# C; r$ R/ M7 w9 T
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( C. M2 T! p) S
! n: f6 O0 G, h( x5 j( b. MRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 r3 t) O L& A+ x' L $ B+ {: a8 d' RFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 8 X; b. r. a4 Q$ K) [4 ~: _8 T9 Y' _# ]
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 K' Y; }3 e, l4 w* c# [4 u
& U( x0 z- o5 ^. @* B! l"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 I0 i/ s: }0 L* t, y
: C! {% t8 v: s. C, l) KIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 ]! ]7 T! Q; g4 v n) q# g! X8 K: U' {. b" _
' P9 X0 K0 _7 v* A6 a& TGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , b8 T& Q) q* e% V7 L
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & g+ p: B! c: U+ y & L0 j) ~! V9 uUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . O; K# E5 j0 g& p& \% U ~; X; x3 {9 T$ R5 h
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ S# Z+ B$ j$ W' v6 ]2 T# l4 o
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 Y }2 {$ D. {& W2 l5 W' Z) H2 Y
4 d* j D1 C. {+ UInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( h9 x0 P( Z2 \* f* i $ R1 I3 U. j2 J5 ` Z; A- [# x; D3 A"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 v, u+ _, T; x# Y& l
# m7 Z: F, Y0 E1 H1 @5 z7 g0 vGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 e6 ?& ~) U& z; N
