% S3 R6 y/ `3 c+ w 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 q& a8 w7 j8 `2 t' ]; X @# ^; D 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。& H4 N9 f' Z0 d1 g- Q+ O, X
' H# ?6 O1 F5 i+ w! `0 P9 ~. l; e 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : Q$ T O* C$ y+ c0 y " t- ^5 F: M8 J+ F( Q/ C' I（责任编辑：杨海洋）) A, T+ \* [# T8 I5 |2 s1 q
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ; x* j4 Z' B% \% N+ ~' V0 j: G+ B! K1 X# h
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % a8 F7 l, Y; n& v' p M ' P+ M' W4 A5 o0 X+ N6 DA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , H9 H, x% [+ u" T0 J8 f) C
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) n/ g) v6 D k' J7 Q( D3 d$ C3 F" b& l v/ d6 z! F& s7 F
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. m$ p, y& u6 o, o
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 Y+ d2 k% G, w, i4 s1 b; @0 k& n* r, g, C6 S O& z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 v5 i4 }5 P$ a7 U% c
% F5 U* _* l, r; M4 k# g* }0 y/ u5 OThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # e7 f; N/ X! { c; y$ D% D) @, F& ^: k M& Z" D' b# S. k
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; r: c+ r! `9 `. k
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % }. G3 e8 e/ @( ]- n; _, a* ^
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 v, b y2 t! s* d3 [7 E! a8 p' q) y2 @% H6 C
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " v2 n! j @5 L; z9 P* g# B
/ J/ }" h( n6 \5 W/ @+ P- TUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : ~# f% C4 G. d8 ` ) J# g* O* l4 i+ [( BChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ e+ {1 a/ y% ^' [# Q L
% v) ]! `+ X8 j8 eIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # \3 x7 v: |+ T6 X
" Y& M( h: N# BInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , H- N- W9 y" k0 J6 }3 C+ v
0 Z% g/ H9 s4 E" h) `$ \"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 z* G* q; h; U4 `; l. @' ]2 d G8 j" Y A4 n9 p
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 K1 v+ ~/ K* F; S c( M9 Q8 \' \2 y8 y+ ~" H1 g- n7 n
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
