外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年3 [1 v. u$ T G0 n7 N8 R
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞- a1 r D9 J/ @8 l7 s
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。1 b S: d2 Q1 @4 x
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " _" r/ c0 ^" F" e- g7 I 5 p- ]: o. d5 I; E+ @) Q2 T 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' K! k$ n! @, ^: D0 d2 ]- x+ O+ Y/ U( Q6 L
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 . t5 q+ U n! q6 i% W- a$ ~8 h + S; j8 r. C: N+ N 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。" F7 k) x" `* a8 t- |
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 8 ?. p! L3 u, ~. ^0 S( h # A- G# V( M+ W4 ^. O& Z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 t' Y w; K }8 p2 E+ [& w
' h1 ?1 B% r# o2 b+ I, I9 p（责任编辑：杨海洋） 9 ]! T5 Q" O8 l! X; V% N x% q* {6 X9 v+ H7 }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. T9 l8 j: u& y/ K- X% ?8 ~3 z
/ a* ^8 I: B. R+ fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 `" B" D* |7 O( ]/ T7 o4 s) Q0 d9 K* y. e; }) Z' A
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ R1 t* Z+ b e j2 V- \/ V S; H4 R8 d& g4 _
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % K8 G8 J; ~! A1 i7 }( G# } x- l/ A) V9 r$ z
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + R7 L! N) r6 K3 R1 C6 @" \. y1 s6 O2 |* n9 G/ |
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * s, ~" J7 L- M+ l+ v" ]; p0 w# ^' z* L4 o+ L$ I# y. r
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * L5 [& b% h+ n . B: G" u0 ?4 v! [$ ^) V8 L( ]This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 @- R3 s7 |. p8 ^/ t - P+ B! s- ?, t" m6 Q) P"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 _4 l, d& x8 D5 g* t# h 1 N- e$ }6 I# l, R! C; dIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 {0 L7 s" j! ^ ' v$ P+ L9 u( a4 x' j' F( x: rGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : |) p7 H% R1 f$ z) B. |! u9 K. p5 g' e! S
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ ?9 `2 ^/ B8 f- K4 O5 ?& L/ j8 `$ u! J8 O* B* J
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( k' X+ x5 V* p) q& Q
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " \) S7 a; W* z2 y8 `3 A, I/ _1 _" |6 r0 v
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / D. t( C1 _1 O+ V* R! \) l, H6 j, T% X; ~" F0 }
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / S; X/ [ [2 V m& R . b2 V( i: a5 l/ d; p"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) u7 |3 s) e6 {8 A" I
! m: k4 q0 ]! M5 O TGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 c6 q' ]6 G$ p+ {
) G K) p9 j% s2 VThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
