( |% o6 B5 e h, I 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 5 f* _( W+ E( W) R ^# V 6 w0 F) L) E$ P' F 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。5 b) C1 j3 [0 b& P
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# E/ L P( H9 j- V/ C/ ^- E9 k4 b. t
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 5 h/ ?+ z/ K# l% @ [$ K; L9 W( H; c) T0 c8 C# Q6 o. X* F: p$ v- w （责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 \" q* L! u; w4 I, m: ]0 Z/ T) n+ Z P; {) x y; D
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ V- T7 v- z, M& g' ?0 l: D( v
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! I0 r" d: G# d
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 ^. M; {) P9 W4 D5 U4 F4 j( U5 Q. t" t# v
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) O) B3 V5 G L" N S: z
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ b& ~: S& N* I0 \
: i1 c5 }: ~. G$ JRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 p. A T( J' T8 {+ v ]
$ q6 Q* ^% S, k. L) CFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' n* w! C' s2 X H5 ~. i
& X" U n% H6 r3 f# lThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; [! m9 |. s3 C; ~8 {6 S
& W8 t% O, l4 r F6 ]"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 Y5 Q' h' e. l/ a" Y/ Z0 e4 v6 q ) y0 w, |% U$ I9 S0 xIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 F! y4 l8 |; `: G9 K
6 ]$ ^/ X0 l0 O- C: ^; @# TGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 N5 ]0 G# X5 m( J$ Z2 b! f" J
" g: a* V% s: B2 b' AThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; D0 P& y' {+ j % F g! E6 S+ f; d7 ?Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 Q( J- H0 E/ y* _) X: S `* `: O; a
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % z+ b+ x4 r# L( L3 u& t# } $ h; p5 F# |. V" Q$ AIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 A: a7 j" ^1 _4 D3 |; ?& `, A0 E/ W/ [3 z. W
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. H9 D3 G/ ~0 L, m
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 Z8 y z% e }1 O% f' U
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & {2 H3 N( E) X3 j
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
