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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 G; v" [0 {0 G& h0 n9 f' g( q: M/ {5 n9 B
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。& R+ i l$ e2 Z
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 _% {# N; W4 L" J
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 ?8 }9 @4 h% S8 v0 F
, ^+ \# Q" h- H# o7 r 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。6 G* w. S' g; u1 y3 d) s' V
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 \: z1 @* `: @% l , x6 }& v8 x# l1 z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / p$ }' s$ X2 o' e0 S4 i/ t1 q( k4 P- j* f' J$ e （责任编辑：杨海洋） , b* @& l9 d$ E0 |" Q/ f6 o3 Z9 Q& Z" J
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 d. j2 R* z+ B6 v$ z" h$ F4 o G4 M* X
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * S. {6 }" L( a' ]6 v) V
9 x5 e* e+ d' f9 u$ W6 YA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , x9 i0 R5 y) k# ?7 M7 z
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 A9 A3 A7 A8 r/ i3 F: v7 c
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 b1 K$ B I9 K3 {# t- }3 B) A9 Z8 R7 f& k1 ~0 }* O
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 m- B% Y, @. D( m( e: T3 m p7 m( @% v1 y# l1 ^* O, `
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " B- U6 w0 h1 Z( `( t! o
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. D7 U4 l( o" m; b$ H+ L7 L7 ?
% c# k: H3 s5 G" x; o6 _# l$ H% Y- ~"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) Q' }7 X: o5 D- i$ i' Z & `: f9 a: C7 u3 j# q/ Y9 DIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; h7 V! c; m+ u4 m: [% s1 |7 o
3 y' @1 n% j4 s; QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / y; C* X/ j3 p' T& E4 h3 f6 M9 G
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 y v t! l- Y0 N' e; K
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . {2 U; W8 O8 E" k
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; ?' Z- M: s- y/ X5 a" m4 e+ F. P# F4 w" Y! C0 w, n% C& U
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " T3 p+ @1 a9 H" V) f # M \9 j b3 i# S ^" r0 RInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 e; n$ `0 X1 u+ M0 z! L
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 d2 m1 Q7 m, x% j/ l8 ?: B+ d. A8 u: I* i0 {
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 s2 \5 ?! k1 n. q
