外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年5 M8 n }# F" z* n o1 ^
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞+ G, o, }, _; |
' l- K; v: G( I. k- X2 ^ \5 @ 2 L8 w# S0 ~( X" {2 d( o7 P中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 , \4 O. s! J# M( I6 A: v- g) q3 P- l; k8 i7 l: k
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- T7 S% }" c3 _8 m% r( n
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 4 z0 F7 W: d2 w: M0 P) m: L/ o3 ]# F
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 + Y# r5 v! _ E7 @" C! T' C% t# C5 L6 B$ i
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。* H& ~; i2 C( N9 }, N V& t
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & E+ |4 U/ \' z0 F; e% a) j7 l' U, B- l
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + z, o/ _+ U9 ^" _/ } # O. n" X) [- f（责任编辑：杨海洋）: p" Q. d- v2 k) a8 g% @3 O0 U: k5 M
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. Z* O' B# ?4 @; k$ b( {
, z6 L' W6 Y4 c MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. , Y1 _' A- a5 I' o7 R
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & _1 V& D$ Q u7 r* {" A: v; X; S1 S8 n3 V
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * j: p( i3 h4 b; g+ t2 ^ * Y* |- ?2 M: e1 x) n6 Y+ tAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / o. S; |$ Q% [ K$ \' p7 J7 ^- B; F5 a% ]7 C5 c
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . u- k% i$ U) N5 {: U
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; g0 F U2 Q, H+ V* \! i9 D o' \/ ` * s( [, ~; K: j3 E3 u" v' r7 FThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 w# F1 t- \- C. p F" P, K
( T3 [: Z: L5 a"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * u9 \7 [3 \; d3 Y' d( E6 v
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + `* q( q/ |, Y! {. _* M. Z1 E& z* O, x / R& Z1 D1 Y9 ~% {* C4 w1 mGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * }( W* q# Y! A5 w9 x * o+ p, K( U( k" {: F1 ZThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' r! n! [, g5 h/ o4 c1 w' Z. k: l1 R+ u5 E% l
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . T' S3 G) }1 |( m9 I 8 q: |" t# z' l! y5 tChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 m$ |$ _3 Y4 _* D! E; X- O 8 X. L5 V6 e6 S/ H1 X, z% eIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 z& t" P2 e+ Z& ]! i- o8 y
" f" I9 j2 g5 s/ X! G& V4 nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / }" m" {- F4 H" {- C
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 G5 u5 s/ p6 A, ~0 _ 1 b' ^. q! D4 R3 pGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! o4 l$ u- B1 T7 J8 N; ~, \$ y( \
! K" O. V% A# j/ C0 JThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
