+ W0 R6 a7 `6 Y, y! G! MRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters- O) E* S) |2 `1 Z/ ]& X c
2 F c. l) B# J8 {BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / O0 g2 U' N( a$ I9 T2 R0 j# j5 @; I( R
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ) u7 ]8 ~% X' O& ], X }4 {
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; ? D: Q5 w" k7 e- P* N; i6 K, z( E4 b) C Y$ c
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 \" o* q; e/ y; D7 b4 k" ^
' Z5 D: `7 ?" x. n+ Z9 b7 rRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 ~; Z8 e! ~8 u" p1 H
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 E, ^; K$ @% p3 G* I$ d 5 C3 K8 b" X: A9 XThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 h0 g+ {# Q' W( Q2 E6 u% b. {; v$ _; f& i% G @4 K2 V- u2 @9 A
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . K: J4 r4 v- B4 Y9 r& ^9 |
0 b2 ^9 ]+ }5 X* uIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * x4 ]: c; i% M. ^+ Z& |; A7 l- t2 k6 r* b
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! W) e) B9 ?3 ]6 f# a
2 f7 i; c* J6 j- ?; C' vThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % o, M$ z- l/ M2 o8 \3 d- L' l6 O$ z5 Q, Y7 X& D
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( z, X& I1 h4 V; r4 m
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 _$ M d6 W- ?" i+ [, y! v: X
# B1 J: B* d0 w9 qIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 c! w; g8 N0 _" `4 L2 _ ( a M: Z9 {' E$ l/ cInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 ~% F. G6 r9 |4 Q 3 R& y& f" G' V* h, c3 b& Y6 ?/ ]"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' d6 n5 a( f; l& k7 o' ~! Z1 o6 U
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 Y/ M$ u% a8 q2 O" _# d9 t ]* K+ k2 S ` w# {8 W
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
