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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 9 B, e) e/ E" a, @ ~ ! ^8 g/ V' r. }5 N/ I0 w 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ) E( U M# \6 @1 Z6 l, f3 P! e9 i* Y
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。4 Q, v$ `; C+ q4 }
% q% O$ q( S# f5 x9 T! R1 W2 i 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 E( H! ]/ Y6 l- t" c% f- d2 y7 A( x0 p6 E
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。$ I% Q$ _& @2 Y. ]- m5 {8 j
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。9 c. F3 m; S6 [% n& N$ p
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' i) ^: C1 x: E1 B* D# k. Q k- T! N; s0 I （责任编辑：杨海洋）7 K2 Z W0 |/ `
% Y& f8 I. A4 U" z X9 W1 kRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters! w+ e( z$ r* N% Z+ F* q* Q
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. h# L) `2 N$ s$ t" J$ d1 Z9 ^% \! L3 }2 B2 \
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % m: a2 V4 | m. ]* f/ C) f
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : `9 c4 R( L3 |* k) s1 K4 i/ u 9 v: a* B; M, Q+ i1 _% s( f# KAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " j! G9 @' b3 {" ~" W6 R- W! K7 J, ^; c8 X9 G: {* e$ l% b
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # G, s7 G" r) R0 V+ ^/ q1 M/ H+ S' _$ f/ z, v$ I8 t+ s% A5 e
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 }4 n: T, s6 G1 {& e$ M 8 r, u b+ @) n, d/ oThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 `# \ z' L4 n
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; e5 `3 C* S' ~/ u! \' h% i
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , f' y/ t* @# [4 E J9 ]7 _ 7 X3 g) }% X' T! KGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 ^& K2 Y1 e2 `; ?' @; N9 @8 C
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 J- z" _3 Y9 ~5 [7 o" f# j: P5 R2 u" ?( \
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % v% v8 ^, P0 `7 N . E$ w- d/ ~9 z- Q/ d- X$ v$ ]China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 \$ V1 b9 {# Z+ l' X
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. - v1 H0 T4 U; q ?* K" J* W4 K5 e" Q |, Y! b
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / K0 t5 }3 ?4 Z" U J( U. S
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. Q, f: E0 S& b: _$ y6 f ' w# N! u) k3 |' ?Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & ?3 c' m# T! y, p z
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
