, I, q! u k# c1 L7 p中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # S% a# f" b! n; F0 [ 9 `! l( x& M- A# V# k. | 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。; F6 e* X+ b' ]+ `% ?
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。6 h7 S6 t% ^4 C( G. ]
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。" E2 u& p+ h1 F" C" p/ q
3 w& @4 ~3 {4 Q! r4 Q9 x4 Z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。5 T7 ^; y8 Y/ ~ f* i) a
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 0 D+ M/ [6 n* C' L. \5 \4 {# I. E ! k" d6 Z) a$ n+ x% w1 h 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 $ s+ \+ |. ^/ v& Q! d$ d3 i+ F + W. ` W/ T2 S9 Y& V% d8 K（责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 r" d" g" D; s$ |2 w" v" k4 \5 T2 j+ D# d/ r* p" K! K
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / w& G' W5 j) e* C! M; Z* R% K0 r; q7 Q/ ]& p. _
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # l- s ?/ V' M E# b a; I. O3 `$ d, w# n5 IA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : k1 O: b0 `4 h, w
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + R- \" g% I n4 a4 g" A* Z! W& r O$ \
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . |* U& g N& ^/ @* ^0 \/ f( p& t/ H
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) Y# B3 {- v3 |( D, j7 H6 z " a5 E; T) [; r# q, h# eFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( c, h3 J# u. M. Z3 t- S, W" L0 m9 w- {/ h7 X4 w' G
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( A( f7 p3 i( x6 C2 m" [6 n# q% a# Q+ H& r9 H
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + T, S0 \- D* T7 j- d! s( B: x0 u. g0 |+ [$ Q/ h7 I' h
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * I, A. T' }- Y- X
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' ^# `. b. [) b+ e) r6 J' ~/ L! J+ w9 ~5 O4 q4 J
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 t7 `6 ?" L) B2 b o# c1 s
& Y& I, A& O& y2 e$ X- `3 _Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - |( w; P( Q( _' K# I1 m0 s5 n4 \5 B( v- s+ W: n
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - k, K; r- _: N" N0 M8 N, f, e0 F
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 n/ K# ~4 ^4 U2 U; O; y3 c6 G$ F. |( e7 N& P' y# R
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * Q; h$ o. ~ B5 a( z7 q
. }- d! y. N9 v+ J" I" n7 T' D2 k8 m"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , A( G+ R; H* T$ ^* v
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - P7 m8 k2 v$ p7 V& E K |; N
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
