8 y7 f' E1 w r0 Z+ o6 Y7 E. q' d 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 s8 o" L. r% `' l - D' t4 K" u* s/ B 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。- A8 F9 B4 q O+ L& ^
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 1 s+ A+ f) ]; R g2 ^7 h& t7 z" A g3 o) l/ k! x% _
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' i" \4 ^- S* n1 }( i7 B: u) K3 t/ Q. n. v （责任编辑：杨海洋）# f) _& x' b# X8 D6 c
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters3 B8 b, ^7 S/ M5 z% t, ?8 D0 v
6 m. k( ^ l3 CBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # q- s |8 d: _+ V/ K7 w S$ [7 s2 P( G' u4 A6 r1 w
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / i2 B# M: \) h9 ^2 p U$ e9 \ M8 y4 O" k5 q; gLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * Z$ d0 W$ j. M; u6 j: D6 @7 r+ G 5 g9 s! [1 r) }" ~After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 Q! B& ^. _ S) ?& k! q
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . o) \$ y2 ~/ j1 A/ f p/ S* U, l J
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( p2 u' o! w2 w8 M$ o
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 s9 R4 K5 R- y5 ]6 W
5 y/ o+ u! v" X, S y: v' x, q* [9 @"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & ~+ ~0 v% ~/ A0 p) D0 m 5 K4 X/ q# v( z) }7 r( y& WIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; \$ b6 L! R" k1 [* U , Y/ ]4 k/ M( X5 ~, g5 i% K( b0 {Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " Q, V0 K ^2 t7 }7 G1 |8 R5 k) E' \% w: }6 u p2 y
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . Z6 l; D8 ^" ~9 \ t
' ~* ]8 ]% y wUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! O6 V2 d' s9 `7 S8 N$ N# G7 c 1 g) [8 C; d. o' CChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 m' Y( M: e/ _( R6 p/ f' \& u, {; m0 ?) F+ e
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / q; y4 C) b+ V 6 U# P9 e C3 C% \) C$ eInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) g& ?. b0 s$ ]* |8 ^0 t1 ?7 w# H; {: G2 Q9 I- T
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # t9 Z! z5 `1 p% _1 n 2 e/ x: ~ [6 {$ f' UGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 D6 v8 y1 A S/ A5 s& r# o5 _$ V9 }; J( [1 Y) M5 W4 D
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
