外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ) L; ^8 {6 S5 L: u9 W2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 / L" l% b$ C" ~" I2 W3 U1 H) {9 u; U/ f0 Q' Q
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ! p' s; ~& Q) _ T! H8 \: ~0 c9 B* `! m4 [4 G. k( ^' X# |
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 : h4 h% T$ {8 |. o8 D% n( ^! c! f% [9 h3 z; l0 W
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 A$ m4 o$ p1 e. z% A/ x5 K! M4 e7 h# }) n: n B, j! l
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。% Q" C+ I, c: a- i' _9 z, {
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( ~9 k7 f% l4 o2 l) R
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 2 C+ y5 O1 L. {4 S8 ?: b9 y% [" Z. B1 p' Z, K
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 & j" R5 s2 j$ }/ Y. x% p% p 5 f$ ]2 h' W/ Y+ f+ b" v（责任编辑：杨海洋） . g- y8 @8 ?! m: O9 s! t5 Y; `& Q" D* n( D( ?! _
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# }( P5 T9 }$ ^9 M9 {8 [
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & y; K2 O) A& ]& A: F' H. Y, [0 y1 i% t
7 E @* C X3 AA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 q5 L0 j& i, P: {9 O. ^
: N, m% O5 l# r& i# `6 `& bLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 x4 a2 G# n& B3 U8 G0 u
1 Z4 v, v" Z$ L1 sAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; S7 h+ A8 k( y1 l; d/ E9 Z9 R) h/ @' f4 F* M
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - c: s, l& t4 y
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 V9 b3 W5 j! Q6 O. [ 2 L& ~! q) g3 }) l2 @$ SThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 R; w+ i6 t6 L0 G2 u) p4 q' D' h- H7 W0 r! @6 Q% |8 M
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 \. R# t- D, d6 J. I+ p) E* B) k: l) t6 I& U
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + i6 U. P4 K* f8 X9 I
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 L( F3 s* ~' \4 E+ G8 d5 F5 s; H 3 L+ X( s3 J) u6 H6 bThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : S6 k) l1 m# `6 k& c K7 T$ o 9 t) H# D+ z% T6 M- e' mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( k; }5 K0 j, r3 Z' u$ M+ @, L" {% U1 {0 q4 d! o
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 v7 ?( G; {' ~+ O1 A4 i0 W
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , X/ \$ {+ S$ _5 k9 a* t3 U
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 I; U* H: P4 _, _; z S7 z; X3 G$ K0 D" K' E
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 B, U: U; E8 `" J3 q& B/ d7 K3 m
/ `& g$ M0 f) C$ uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 V8 s7 w; ^. G: Y ?8 B" q* q 3 c$ x$ p5 a9 r9 Z8 d1 eThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
