外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 4 m/ c0 a3 r" q) \& D0 C% }2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞; G0 {9 M" }% N( Z+ d
4 d x6 D' Z$ A% Z/ P
% j- x6 i: y( x. O, Z
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 . ^; C# m" q. T& X8 y5 O + L6 T0 s5 }& ^" j% o$ u) B 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ! ?# d1 N# ~1 Z. T: a% f0 { g( t+ g, I& ?2 F4 A- v 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。0 Y2 U5 X$ _! L% x
1 P& [8 r$ s+ A* l( h) n2 n1 N/ j 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。% o; X$ }" J. r* q, q
! c) @. g/ j* z( y- _7 D 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! I7 F* L1 _1 `$ t: e* K- s8 g
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。1 X2 {4 A# z+ N- d; Z) \
$ ~! ?7 b# \% Y0 g8 l! ?" K 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' J! K- u9 |: G! c
; n# M" [$ j3 A （责任编辑：杨海洋）* q! L' s: ?& _/ n
1 `/ u6 r# V0 B3 b
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters* ]# j! m# p( N1 D& I
6 p" e. ]+ u+ z
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % J4 ^ Z/ ~7 R
6 u0 {, X, J: S2 M7 U4 |- W7 P
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # L9 t, ~& V) p% \. }8 T) q8 z
$ c4 d& \, X: I$ A) P' J# {/ A1 k% g
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ S4 K( |0 F4 u9 B6 |: J. M1 B
. w( V4 A3 R0 ^9 d# ZAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , P6 {5 E7 q5 I8 m- ]# U3 L& E( K+ ~- }/ A
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " e% y4 O+ h& d
/ m# ^/ J: b8 K7 L. bFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 ~0 f# x* g% A. J
s3 H% ^; D' B7 f* k m* a, h; w! [
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " `8 U1 H- v6 ]
@+ {- K* l' p: z: Q"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 A5 Z* B" ~& b a
' |* ]" a2 J4 b( ^* e$ f9 T( p$ AIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 H: S+ y0 v: C7 M' S5 K, ^" H. r S/ K0 V$ x, V8 ?5 \" s1 Z
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * b5 h+ V j* ]! ]
9 ^8 N5 J! h' J& e
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 M; X% v2 P3 D6 h) N6 l3 W* [
8 L& l8 U+ ~ l& Z6 W- w+ c+ e
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 t, M1 x0 p* S1 N3 h, V2 a5 R
& S' N' D, N9 \3 {3 ~
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 W0 ^9 B( u9 @8 O( o
# }) \5 F! R, _' i) X
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) o+ K8 C$ Z3 g: [$ ~
- r% C8 r" n nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , w9 D3 r$ A4 O8 X3 L( ~2 @$ e
. O5 Q8 N8 h; h0 a0 _7 J) ^1 h9 v"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & K, ~. S+ g: H B: _
2 ~' i+ ?0 D. d% z4 ~" y& T4 {# t0 ZGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 n; ^4 s) A/ Q8 m6 \7 X4 u) d T
' t# j4 s! S- ]+ b( \( ]
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
