外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 / j2 U% y3 o/ T7 N( t! C+ l6 ]2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞7 k6 L' |) ]& Z: C) Z" u4 [' Q/ N
) i7 z3 O$ s% W' o4 g. e6 d/ W 8 a: R6 w( V. {# |6 n4 z中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 S8 @# C" T9 b+ |* e$ N% E/ y. w
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。$ o) V% {/ w. y$ |# l
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 R6 A w2 K6 ~! Y1 A0 v+ w- J
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 n* c# ~0 z. N6 B
7 w0 R& A. @$ O+ Z: p 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 4 x/ Y, J0 x! s! I" `4 F. @ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - ~, D$ D0 |) s* ^- B. b 0 K( \' p5 `. P7 d, j 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 A3 \$ ] Y8 c% q( L
# |4 u, k2 u+ k（责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 n# r$ W" g5 y# l8 O : w" m9 Y9 q5 ?- g2 v9 P6 o5 }$ j2 a( sRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 y8 C0 s; P* Q: |1 A" ^
9 d8 P* z/ L, C& z! M8 y7 wBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 \, E# ?) r& }! b F- r2 I% k + W H7 ^. I* [: JA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! f5 [" l) c1 b
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 Y9 W2 K% X. }( F n" ?/ o, x- \1 }8 Y
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / V! M$ g$ W4 U; @8 C1 n( T% i" \: W, R9 v# Z. m
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : E6 H# E. ?% W / Q% g1 C% J7 r0 M$ W! yFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) }% u2 e! n+ R$ x7 _& a9 P) r! {; l
9 b6 D: O% |+ PThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % Q( i" G9 N4 d; O& H
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . ]+ Q. w6 D! \- z; u% L; o* k. M# c, N, D7 }# u" c6 M
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % q& P' I3 Y: T" n . d) i0 M' p6 R9 L+ y) V% ^Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 G9 {4 w) |# y" {# }5 v) T
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . l! v7 P, d8 g p: K- t8 r% G
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # D0 t; [9 x) L6 A' C9 w5 q
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : Q `7 R2 j W7 e' k$ F: @' s. A" o1 S6 t- u+ r! ~. r' o
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 b) {7 I# Y# a
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; `7 h7 X- @# g+ Z. z4 b S" [8 x# ^3 i+ o, s
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # b8 C. z6 l$ c/ X + r8 \& _- A5 b& u, G7 n7 b; d: MGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 b3 E5 m4 @2 P; {2 @, A& n
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
