外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年# p9 l" I! }! g1 e* t
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ( z% n" q( d& K" g % V' _5 |! ?" r8 d' h 5 A; I# v7 M p* e中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。) r7 u4 I8 T5 Y# x
1 n0 J& z2 A( O! e; U( f" @0 I 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。4 ]3 p. \, ]* n0 A3 }
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 _; G9 k+ r: \6 H2 Y6 T 9 A% ?0 R6 b& f, N! o 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( c/ D+ l& j- s, G
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, r5 r: y1 _8 N& m3 E
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 , a' }* f4 n. e7 f/ n, c% S: W2 Y( i# u' t
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : g, B3 j$ _, u* u$ Q9 Y3 H- @& O0 @/ }* P G9 H' K* p8 w （责任编辑：杨海洋）* q, `: P; V i3 c) E& i( j& v
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 3 E/ x8 n6 X3 D& M' t8 \6 C+ W! y; d X
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 X3 d, t7 O& O5 o, i' |
' k6 X! L4 n% c# WA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , d$ O- L0 @0 \3 P4 u3 p6 }$ {( O g4 \/ O; m# Q/ x! G3 f
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # g$ c5 l6 ]& Z) j: F$ u$ e* @3 s+ D B
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( a" h( ^3 v4 q8 d$ C/ T9 K2 m* Q; l
6 c4 C/ J2 Z8 }5 D( z6 ]* P' LRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) @, g* J) ^, ?+ G, k! X9 E2 j& y; O9 O' K q
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * b$ S7 Y& D' g A1 _- L/ B4 @
5 A+ V$ W, I' ZThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) L' [/ N# u& [+ _( h2 W# D 6 x" n1 X/ L2 E# J9 w"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % T( F9 ~7 O. c0 w1 U7 J $ u7 Q/ E- Y) S# Y* d3 o. y! i: q/ NIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : f, G7 N3 Q5 v! ?9 W2 i! q8 A/ j' I6 r( [& y8 T3 t4 ?
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 P T8 m# {1 w) b 2 K0 y5 {/ a2 i% GThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ j7 }5 f& p+ d2 L# U
2 g8 T! f' c" c. L" }8 \ vUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' o0 L( e5 P5 T0 T2 D. j/ f9 B$ S
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' O2 s. K0 F+ O9 X( v( M4 V
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 ]5 K/ S2 O4 y& S) e5 P& j ) X8 } ?2 T. T3 P/ }: N. yInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 U% a ^2 ] K) F7 u9 R2 a3 b; ~" [* A2 h5 u' {
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. Y! d+ N6 J0 V- i ) T+ T, m- [3 \( d5 _9 V3 NGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * i3 R. D* ~0 W- Q1 j ]* j( a u4 G2 m- P9 [
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
