外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年* p+ i/ k7 i: f
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 6 K4 e: d% w) k) z e6 [' }; ^7 |( ~4 o/ P m' @9 F0 t+ E
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。% [0 `* z" k6 ~
/ }5 B& |6 B7 M; k; B 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 : j9 p; N& r; U" X, ~ 1 e* r: H5 Y& y* l9 P 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' p2 e$ \6 n7 P& Z9 v
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' n- B% T: O1 v2 X ?; o
( S, W4 M' u& n. ] l% }" C 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。7 D+ r( U6 c9 Z5 T
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 Y2 s3 G8 C* K
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 b- E1 N" G2 ~( J' F' o" A3 b3 S
6 O& V% N9 X! y: I（责任编辑：杨海洋）; E# O3 m5 s8 t1 x2 E
5 P4 g& o, R0 B/ T/ S' z' i# a- MRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 U3 V7 G! v& g' H
' L+ |" p( P. ^2 h+ `# Q" oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. , f' U: J! `8 {8 _8 }8 m3 E) T) d/ r: |. y' U
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - u8 g' N: \+ s! S( g) ~7 `# y
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * Z9 S8 b$ h I; Q - j% _- y8 Z( M3 P% {* O" ~After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : x- _& f* {+ i( ?4 a4 f
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , |5 r9 i- p3 O: f3 G1 g* K) r T8 W7 X3 h4 z7 ? a: @
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) l5 N8 n. u' t( { ; T0 w& `# G6 YThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : [* Q6 l' v4 C+ t q
; H0 g$ S8 N* i, u% Q( p, _" y"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! c5 K% A/ g$ G! M : |- v3 x9 w1 e5 k# i$ SIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * a6 _9 |4 a/ m% f. w0 B, v6 M" v4 y9 {8 n9 l
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. W8 g6 @$ M# V8 p3 r! U- p; p; u7 [6 Y' N; a/ u
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 k c6 n) Y2 ~
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 X; ^9 `1 |5 |" a7 N: @' e) v5 Z & b6 | m' v- c+ u4 }7 T' qChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 F: ]: J! A% Z
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 G+ A+ ]+ y; B7 ^ # m! X! c1 E8 R! N3 _8 J; b5 RInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 A: g& V* l; G+ Q+ k6 D3 x( S4 X9 r0 D1 I5 B5 u+ c
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 m# v: r0 J) ]3 r9 H
- i- j* l# s& kGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . c: Z1 \$ E0 n4 o# [9 r8 k) P4 @( r3 C$ v, M
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
