外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 n: B# T4 g8 S* a4 ]6 J& W. F2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞0 o; i/ S( W. D- w' K
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。4 G% x( v4 y+ w0 @% _$ ~% O
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。, Q" Z: k8 H' X0 H
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 2 n L! E& Q5 I5 Z4 @% w% {1 Y. ] , M$ s5 K, }2 m% N; O 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 7 z* h* `; |; K+ T $ p. N$ c4 e" O 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 Z8 H) b9 a+ M0 e) ]) ] 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 3 m% u+ M! r$ o( g7 Q. j $ j* `) S* N2 H* w+ f8 R 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。. o; d9 l! M+ w8 B2 I/ e( y( U0 m: y% R/ O
/ }& X! _/ b7 B8 p- C( S' Z（责任编辑：杨海洋） $ y% e; m9 N3 d' G4 @* I0 S9 b6 `' N5 K( m' B% r; c
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters * ?" V* y- [- B6 R9 l, R2 F. o1 P& n$ n* w, s* R
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : E& e7 F! n6 ]6 I: B- a% @! _9 p4 e' Y6 {3 ?; l
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 w! K5 h0 i5 O' X; y
0 O- E2 _1 r7 d- l/ f. y5 C# CLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ p% v( d- o! W. A: B! b& r: T& }/ E! x& y/ p8 x2 q. S F1 X" _
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; s. C* s* @& Z( a& M 5 Q- h# H; a/ [( Y1 A; m& P r0 ]& f( SRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 }! P. }9 V. U7 \2 o- ]2 f 0 J9 J% s3 T' I: |7 PFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( p- M/ Z+ N! Q+ q" H' ?; s5 L4 `, W( I& |1 @: J
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & R% s7 }9 ?" H) r# @# O
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , [! t `; X2 ]; i a. l/ q4 J( \& R# l' U5 R3 e/ v+ h* L, M
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 A" b* X% s) [$ G5 V+ C) p$ Y
+ M8 X6 Q- a4 w/ b I/ @0 M% l' iGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) {- L O- p- B# t7 x, ?$ W% W+ |# G
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' Z* k! x9 v+ M% i) C
+ z3 u e) n) c6 JUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . @! ?3 I. _8 | m, F; x* z4 e9 F4 I+ q! x g, b# q
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . l a- f0 A, N2 S/ j# o Y) S6 v+ J7 A* I% x
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ X( D+ @! }$ H+ D6 U w m: J/ F( z! I+ P0 _ G7 j
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % m1 E* v) E8 o0 K: Z" ? 8 L1 U4 o0 X4 u/ O+ r+ T- f+ O"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; ~. y3 ]9 q( z. r) ^$ I7 F# h9 _ - I+ B P% b4 s) d% Z" hGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , E' T0 d8 y& D* m / ?8 ^: A. e. g& y9 U# x2 JThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
