外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年/ V/ ]' b0 r5 H( R4 Q+ s* a- @( l
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 # ^3 F( j C/ Y1 z- i2 h; T8 y; |$ E8 Z% S! R' p
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ; j* J: h Z' P0 p% o8 r) b% ?# J, N" O) e
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 8 k8 d! l. ]& h, m8 |. V+ u+ K; @+ g6 w
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。$ g0 b& h: Z# Y& `( b: _% u' ^
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。4 U" C* A( E$ {0 Z# ?
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, ]6 ^* _; v# c: X7 Q+ N9 @
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。6 |; ]- o" R8 S) t% |# ^% n
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。, @8 R% f) f; G, s
$ z8 x: C; t o- e （责任编辑：杨海洋）& f4 G5 x* b6 Z G0 T' y
) ?4 z5 w. x/ V* ]$ K" SRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters * C2 j' k, X+ D1 l' W" y! T/ X9 d2 ^; G
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. q: t& n& ^, o2 \% D6 M. \+ F! F9 }9 s; V) `5 S
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 x4 R/ @% s) K4 {, C8 l $ Q9 v) k. ]1 r5 `+ I$ q3 LLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : a/ j3 ]8 t/ a: c% ~
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # K8 V3 E- Y! c1 d# i/ {$ @; U( J
[' I9 c2 ?$ @" VRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & S% @1 y- A% @7 f( W8 O2 T/ i6 L/ p/ W5 E0 }
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 G: s0 Q4 C, B9 N1 ]! w/ B u9 I2 i0 _4 o% x# J% i0 w
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " K1 h7 H% K* w9 t
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 {: [0 H; G* n- r6 l K, @- v$ f |) Z. h& w% r7 t
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( I) H" h2 Q4 o4 G# ^
. a7 M, R; Y& w4 a9 G0 QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' P7 T7 n" _, }7 X( M* a! O
; }. j) P$ k0 m, eThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 W/ F! [/ N5 d! x
) d" {% O) C9 ~9 s6 A1 S) k2 B5 rUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' [2 h0 u7 k8 ~7 S' s* i4 X* K3 l6 N$ O3 n; m
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - k' N5 f4 Y$ K- p( }
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 s, F2 g# W! x/ i' b; O! D
/ X3 _- ~( A* R1 X! KInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 J, M, X: n( _7 {) c; C; Q
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 P4 j7 Z) _; M6 g6 N \; t * O' R* q' v. l0 g% Q) ]Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & b! W% ~6 L( C/ C2 d & v5 C2 o7 n" i4 R! a0 t* a3 k+ F1 TThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
