% z+ j9 |$ G5 t3 t/ S3 [, a$ P 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 O, Z' l g: \! u% ^* i0 f) ~
# {3 q$ z7 c- J! o. \ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ k3 ^) S7 G# _" \ _% E
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 T. Q. I# t1 d( D3 F Y, Y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。3 z' V4 n; f. z" Y% g! x' B
" d. D* S7 t, r4 V 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + U# C J! n7 c3 S7 c% J& a1 `+ v# \; s8 Q+ O! k+ a, d' @ （责任编辑：杨海洋）4 t3 E# I$ U7 t5 g
/ O+ Q. t \+ z: U8 r5 j+ yRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( _; e. t$ b* R# y% W
; a0 D7 j: i. L# ]& I0 b# F: @# H/ bBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; r" X) A0 b U9 y* w, b7 a; E; p; X* K% d! N
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 H5 r( O6 O6 k# U5 s 2 Y- ^( o4 G. c8 eLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * z, @7 \) b) M
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 I& X8 f3 J: C 6 L! S2 N: {) O+ U: P5 I+ mRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' O' w$ V4 i4 G- Q0 W2 M, ] + G1 \! f p9 K+ [& t; \' U+ uFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 t; v* m* e; T8 ]1 C
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 l+ _8 {6 p) L/ b) j/ c/ p1 } $ u' l7 R) h( y5 `: G"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. p! \- E* `; h & d: s* G/ @7 L. u/ MIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - V- f" e5 ]' M" s: t- s% s; }2 d* n. N: N
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) \2 u! Y* v, ?3 o$ ?6 Q
) j @" |/ R X' ]3 S" z# HThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) w8 S6 L4 _- E" w( v: x% o: F- o' U7 S
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 W- T2 A0 Z/ f* H I K% y' o! kChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " }7 D- {% u( _0 _: h4 u 5 L I+ |5 s8 {* [" FIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / l# ?* M3 p; n6 n1 Y6 I' n 0 |7 w! Y" _9 y% `0 aInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 ^+ t7 T' L: k' F8 x + T$ e. v9 H! l6 t"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : w3 s- I! n9 |; Y
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / p! E9 `# q. q! x9 i4 U; u" r4 e* e2 j- k1 S) |- S
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
