外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 + V$ u3 x, d+ I9 D+ l2 { Q2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞, ~6 B) V% @* O) T# e$ ?3 @$ c
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/ {* ] z3 ^3 |1 [) \; p中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 + A; ?/ f6 _$ h' \9 E& H4 Q; j5 G) d2 S# Q2 ~3 s* P
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; u7 d. ^2 o$ d" \' n9 g4 h3 ~# H- g# S( y# y6 [. g
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 - e- Q2 U3 b1 W S2 [2 N & l/ s l P9 L+ Q8 Q) W 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ( g0 [6 @$ S0 H$ c* H2 A7 E! i9 V, t' _* a; u& v! j
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 & M) j& g6 F2 V0 k 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 c( r: r( x7 T, F" \$ J% I4 B- V
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) \# w; |* P1 S5 a ( G7 _+ h3 k; P2 _（责任编辑：杨海洋） ) H1 A/ }- v) T$ J6 m% B/ i: O: Z8 l e a9 K
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, u; a/ C5 ~6 v% F" f2 k S
$ i4 g$ Z# b! J8 [BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' c5 I; e6 p, `5 O. ^% t3 |- ]7 Z( M) i5 v; s& g$ `
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % P' O/ w% f4 A
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 p( W) R8 P5 K# C
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 v& ?6 E; h" f) ^3 t8 p
; k# d% ]: ?+ [* }# h7 bRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - B5 k% O# Z- s4 o! z/ R. [: |! M0 @" A* g+ R
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 @: t# o" k1 y! d
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 t$ L6 ^5 g& P! ` \0 G( x' P7 C6 p( c3 L4 H
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - U% u0 } V. Y/ O$ P' \. t6 g7 h0 x+ R% f) n1 n& r2 y
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; S8 G3 Y$ s. F9 X) Z- q1 P& Z2 A/ _4 d
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 }; }$ B% L+ H. p& W
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / z" r. N2 `2 P) \2 U! j3 k$ P7 s( U% F# b" B
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' e ?* v4 E# m- }* \ v2 {. ~$ D6 n. m/ `4 u+ W, k2 Q- l
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; U' X' a6 C4 i 4 D2 b2 G3 w w) \: D) m4 {If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . Q9 e. I, j* S5 y; S# n) v4 O/ `( k4 M0 K H
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . ?9 k4 B* R- z {1 o/ U8 Y1 B4 Q7 L* j/ v4 k, l( f9 r
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # n8 U2 L# r0 Q" c9 z T: M, ]/ C+ N6 `% \' y5 i6 Y
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 Q- N3 Y. s5 e# o/ |
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
