5 O% H4 K2 s, A- M 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 5 ?4 i. Z7 h6 E; w5 N: t3 {( D) J; J* Y0 v1 j7 N. j& q
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 1 X- E, Q( G6 F' A" o9 X8 a1 p% g' g3 I& I2 \
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 3 ]5 a4 A1 y2 q. P ' @( J9 K c. V9 T8 V 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。+ K4 x" x! ?+ X0 T* k2 Y/ l
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。& n0 v4 ]9 _+ W; A
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% G$ F) h5 l) [) X, j8 U
9 M2 a: o' W9 }/ o/ k（责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 Y, i5 h; n+ R) B [/ Z7 v9 o 8 w* ]4 B% I3 L3 h: |. NRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 5 [' s% }7 q) y# B; ?# Y1 @5 W/ ^
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / z. r. f% Z9 ?6 k) z2 j 2 F( z3 ^2 N" K1 R7 ~$ o9 jA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 M6 v& Q& n4 e
* W. ]6 K. s1 u. |Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . R' G8 f5 ~5 l, N9 ]6 `3 i, f0 m/ S
6 Z; i# h2 g, {6 OAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' _6 G: l$ s. P1 b) D- h% i/ B# Z* r+ z( M
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " h1 |! T) H3 y O
- p% w' \& G, }% W% o# _5 wFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , y/ P; A6 M) X i. {' p
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % u1 i; Z- m: Y. \3 u, ?9 d& O- f
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! X- {$ F, g# z& [$ E P( b* q: Y H7 J8 [' G
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; \5 j8 x7 U5 N6 _. E" x9 w' I7 ]/ ~! T
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , t1 F, u$ v2 F" ]8 s1 q l7 g8 W: J( F
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) i9 d: r. m" a. U- \9 e% X( s t+ f/ }. S1 A
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 B- o- j7 v1 c6 [0 M6 \8 ?3 }* B5 R% y! C
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . b3 ?2 _2 r X0 X1 a, _
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 s1 a" q. V3 F1 b- x: e% N8 J4 e, i$ a4 L5 C3 C5 L
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " V4 N4 J) j: e+ G# Y( {9 Z4 m0 x
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! T% Y/ J6 L* N8 P0 p. A/ q' o3 _. e. x( p# d
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 _$ e6 D/ `+ z " ]6 c4 v) i0 [' `& o8 n7 wThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
