5 m% s- m) I- {5 N' d( ~* U: W+ Q 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。$ z: V d) r' C' \# ~9 G
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 " r& d8 D% H1 ~$ N$ ? 1 W" s6 o5 A0 J6 @$ [% g% w 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 [' Y/ m6 s; ?& @( h# K, I* l+ h. Y5 m s; s
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。0 I9 N0 y9 K. W
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。$ `1 h3 M0 o# @
. m* ]5 S" d0 u7 w# y' N( q 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。( s: z' F4 j9 W! N
7 n" L6 n. _; T% q | （责任编辑：杨海洋）7 g9 V) V" k$ h- u N3 Z6 E- K
% G. }! J) X( w7 H: A- ]7 }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters; w( Q0 i, m/ [) E* N' e# h
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * o7 a m1 |# D5 X9 u4 T, E2 w- \
( Y3 b) ]+ Q+ h' `% \" h, BA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & f, w7 s8 W$ p- y* L* k( l5 _: I 8 a p9 W5 x' A9 gLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! i5 o6 ], q |; C# [4 r
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : x3 t9 U8 u- }* o1 J) t 4 M4 Y; h" \0 y1 ]5 h/ o3 ^Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 x( H$ \# f) m
' o9 ]& V/ S1 G oFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 ]" d; D' m2 P. t# X
. h. C( |2 j( e5 T. F3 H' A w- aThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! \1 i7 N. }, `2 a* x5 ]( B, l: R
: F; N0 `8 H+ P/ }) _, ]"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % X) M# k& V/ r8 T" u3 ?" A& d 7 @6 c* [' _6 x6 @In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 ?6 p7 A8 A, D J, \& L
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 J9 V: J; S2 j' r ) w. Q$ j6 D9 k7 v. AThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 N8 t( z F7 I5 B ) U+ r& V2 }. m* J6 E. j+ d! RUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 g7 j. p$ H0 _6 Q7 ~5 O 9 E! n; V) @; \: Q) AChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % R2 `+ g# p1 v8 ?7 I, V
9 W( N* f4 r4 {' Q+ s& c/ VIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 ?1 I+ |* q( |$ T+ C* k! ?/ N3 \5 c6 g+ G. T' j( n$ t' l$ |8 i
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 r, `& x9 m9 Y9 o9 F" ]9 L; @/ G) V7 L( p
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 q; O I! E* w5 y) w: P. I$ a 1 j7 R' y- f6 k/ nGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 b5 J! u% T4 \# Q- @5 n 4 Q2 x& ?9 u0 `! @1 b- IThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
