外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年/ w$ y- j/ M6 n
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 U0 Y* Q6 a/ E( j3 |2 |5 b# P {+ w" ]! h$ y/ A* |; U& `' o0 g8 E
" ^" n& z- c4 [2 f8 K
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 + {+ b# b) l2 j0 b7 o$ e& d5 `. x* w- L) {
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。/ a; i5 T6 Q1 [! u
) `8 J4 a2 I3 `/ N: [" t
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。" h S) I; u7 A8 a& O
6 l& m& c! p7 k" z1 \8 P" M
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 9 P% C7 L" ]' U/ ? x$ Y9 G2 G3 [# I$ K u+ L
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 8 ^4 y( b0 |6 R1 U: w { 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 , @) X8 A# R- `$ Z! }) h8 n0 t- W6 I8 N9 ^' |$ y1 n- q; J1 G
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 2 T& t4 W/ Z5 r0 \ 5 _ @/ F% X$ R$ F {! u, {; q" F4 ]（责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 U6 P% q, M/ Y; ~9 ^/ a0 } % G# ?, A; f0 A1 ]9 o4 b4 SRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters " i* G, @( @; B ^2 K# |5 T' i1 g5 B8 z; o
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. , x9 e; I! m N, V: J$ I1 I# W* |: Z' ^3 _
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 |' [. p. A* z. m( G' { , ^4 Y4 s1 ]% |$ ^! A! O3 LLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & i6 Y3 M/ R5 b# B9 h: J) i, m, K, G
' C6 Z% V* f5 y5 p) }After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) t* E$ P& [1 }5 L9 q! k% n p $ [; C0 K( _8 e& f. @/ N {Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 z/ i$ W; [. i5 H
/ E3 z( |4 j. [6 }# G! DFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 W. U5 @* Y& b' Y4 V
4 a1 w' e* e* w+ c3 ^This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - k- K `. r+ v
+ x8 A% P( S3 o" H
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " F/ W. U- }) @5 D2 u7 ]% u0 L% e' J; D, @% A- M- X
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 a5 B" f& I# r0 Y. i a3 x! @2 _; G
! u8 Q' }4 F4 v/ M6 {
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , r) m. T o* M* `# C% ^; P- q 2 H: [; B8 M2 _% D, nThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. c0 ~+ c* W+ c2 y3 r; {( D, q& g. b- W
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + D' y' {0 L' n& j& K5 X. x# ^4 ^
$ |" X8 m5 U( }0 p1 `& E3 |China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + t7 x6 @4 H6 S2 s! j$ w; l
3 P9 z* o4 |0 A* k. sIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 C a" c" q% Y: v5 b6 O8 x& {; m' |' ~2 M
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 l( n6 n- b- j/ }. x" q {: Y; V7 d( @; y4 ]- L"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # V* s& Q# c6 D0 l( e; }4 y( P/ w, _9 r: q9 ~" i- D
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 Q1 B% t J1 C7 p) F7 m ; y" O/ ~5 m, ?. _5 yThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
