C4 A& ]7 K9 z `! D" f' c 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 2 T" Q5 \+ d: o7 E8 g+ G, M1 E; F9 c& T5 p2 e& _& |/ o4 L6 g, I( N
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ; L0 {6 }2 z7 }) L2 V1 J7 O! k- ?& G! \% i
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ) c: @5 J2 L- T: D' o- j0 @ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + X h2 C$ G: [: K8 E) I4 x2 e" S! l; R' A! q, L) Z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # H# ?! e7 z5 U$ o+ w8 w# \# t. k % ]$ G* J& |- ?+ j# k% H* R（责任编辑：杨海洋）/ v9 g0 i8 x/ t
# ~0 P6 i+ H+ {6 z7 {, GRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters- }) D# i# S* B: b) ]0 x
+ z' y1 n- y' g/ K) x' d5 lBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / Y o* h0 L! @6 A* I. [8 c
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & I9 y f# v; ], j/ @6 m* g* G9 G: p2 e; a
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 y7 U, |$ y8 T. _, e8 W% v
2 {/ y6 W* r& j5 [7 cAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 y& U1 H- l% ^ i& {3 z4 a# t# o- ^/ ?, T
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 U; e$ d+ o. Q p4 J/ z" ^3 V: L; \, H% t
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % T, e3 `% c2 y8 x1 w; a1 Z, N0 m
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ Q' Y- s: c/ \, |; t x0 f( a2 \; }( f# b' c# p
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! m4 g: J! {% J; L& k
7 W- S8 ? t) K1 u- k& \1 |: dIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 ?5 u e3 v# P- F7 U' q
9 W( W% r w# zGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , B9 w6 V S; X0 K+ w3 D0 D7 s$ s: n) ^% A7 w9 o
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + C$ r6 V0 Y, ~6 f3 F
" @ V0 C- e5 K* S' KUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . _5 H" t& j& \0 j {" Y$ m9 ~: T7 s( `' d) a3 Y
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " a1 p$ c$ x" w ( I1 S$ D; g+ a6 E6 hIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; P* z7 @+ d d$ B# {- ] Z- P1 h$ M# A% W( @7 W! A& W
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 a% }: q" L/ T# o3 D, u2 H/ z) ]6 T * U" q7 O: S2 u8 y" R2 [8 p4 a"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + s: G6 S! R) B6 S, {
5 L! }0 F" U- P; w1 bGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / p' i6 ^1 Y- h7 E: P" p! V
