外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 " e, a. f* I: ~/ H5 ]2 f2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞& b% m6 }0 j0 x# e* p
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 [$ }( g* k/ W; ?5 k' J% Z% e1 {* D
. {& i7 h& h, |3 m+ ~7 j0 a9 D 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; n; z/ `# D# D: n! {* ?) o1 }+ o; }8 p F. n
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 v! M/ P! O$ A j: S5 w. \9 Q8 P( [: b4 M7 P8 ]: Y. ^
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 . r5 z+ L% S$ i9 Z7 C: ^5 K+ C- G. f, r3 G
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。1 }1 l: ]0 o. ^- B' z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。0 W0 ^% V1 _) [4 o! J( l( n
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 4 T! m9 Y, O) |9 N: Y 4 d$ V- x( U! X' \& @（责任编辑：杨海洋）; S M9 q/ C/ g3 M8 L5 P
- a& S3 Q9 W1 e5 T9 R) V* |- }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters$ H8 j0 s7 V2 d! H
$ U, f$ t. q; D# w2 a0 FBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # m- W7 k3 O! l8 S3 ^- ~
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , A; {, V8 g& R# C g; {2 [ ) ~6 W) |6 K3 o$ M( [$ PLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & z) k3 @4 R, S% T! C( y6 O& v( _, X* I, u0 w; X5 C3 u! A6 S
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % _7 X1 ]! }+ V# w7 ^ " ?% L& _) a d: vRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 E# b) ~( G8 h: i % k1 W7 N' a+ h, k* gFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; x/ H0 k# Q6 ^& M; {; Y
& K9 q/ T$ ` l4 K* M" R' q# G0 @This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 m# b! ]( j- v1 J$ x4 k( Y$ ]
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 o; ]1 G' ~' i# q( H4 k; @
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 o, d0 N+ z& L# B- ?. p! U2 I6 j1 f$ c* _
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 j$ |* T$ `' S6 Q4 | 3 w7 f# c! t+ G3 Z0 _8 XThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * L2 Q! V! U- T) O& X" ?& Y " q% X4 o0 X9 @, t2 ?' WUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 {: O4 X, C( U( W7 T) C. P5 ]
! V( m1 E6 l! j' z3 x% k' ^' h! vChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & [3 g) e( l8 } j0 R
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ E( z( q8 f4 D! u9 [' D
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 q. g% z2 e- V: g4 L. w' Y. L: z& |
& G/ d2 B% K2 P( z) \"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 U8 _5 \. w1 }- H9 F# J+ Q& [- Z
# u0 ~ Q' e1 R. c- N7 lGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # Q- [" e1 n. L0 S
