+ W* W) k/ D" F4 ?2 r* `9 J 6 z+ k5 S/ i1 }中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # F* z& ^' X, L& u) Q% Q7 S# m) v$ m% e9 S
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 9 ?7 H D& i" S7 m4 r, R( ~; T- d: Z( t& e1 M4 A
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。) J c& Q! ~# u j# U' R* Q' C
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 9 b/ O0 o: h- V5 g& N% X3 z" l( l. E4 d: ~
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 a& D ]! E' {4 l; j; Q 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 1 o6 I! H% D1 E8 j% p4 \ / m+ W- o, J, m! a; x, Z8 E. T. v 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 J/ ~3 q3 _1 I6 f+ Z/ h6 F3 U
( }; A+ \% P$ |- w& ~8 i: B7 ] （责任编辑：杨海洋）' D' q; |9 }/ C
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 I3 r. g# K* X2 h+ T/ W* d. {. l& c8 S2 W' D8 _
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) R6 C1 f( W$ B* {) e2 Q. D* O F
( s* S/ N5 p5 r4 H8 W: nA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : r4 {* n8 r( ^' p! O8 U* g ( g$ j5 J* v) o# T6 M4 hLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 s) e( H$ d6 N2 u; G 4 N" ^4 D! \/ i) @After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! ~$ r# M( B- X" _% o: w& a8 F5 c# }4 x1 `' C
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 P0 H1 Z0 b# U: a5 h4 K A. y6 J- b t$ ~9 t
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 o& V7 a' Y) c( r$ @5 p
: [, s" c: c3 `5 u6 W4 I ]& xThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( U _0 F2 r7 J8 R1 n; y0 e5 S
+ i$ Z0 \& j; ?; b# p# a"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . h5 o0 f8 ~0 y4 I3 w ' c; ^" Y' h: u2 C rIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # c* P1 G% e' H/ l$ h _0 d% a
0 _! A% h, U, h4 RGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # y9 R" K s; E& o5 Z0 |) I- K
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , v6 w- c1 S, i
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . Z6 I* W1 Z2 G: a$ w2 |+ o$ q
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 ^$ a$ ]7 @; U3 H9 x+ @% @2 l
2 B6 s% H) r, X, lIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 r5 o8 B2 @7 J1 H9 t; d' n H% C, X7 g$ m! H
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / X5 f8 M' _ l . n# c3 @1 t0 X/ ^"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 g" P- G5 \ V4 R# h2 U e* j7 }' K
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 t& w$ F! M {; v: ?0 _ / D* q0 V1 Y; A: B. ]1 H7 M; J O0 yThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
