外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年: h" v/ H3 q+ T8 M6 ?5 ]0 x
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 % {! H5 g+ O3 D0 y) ?: o* z& o2 H0 a$ } D* q
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 - D) I5 g' j6 k$ O* c $ }0 c+ X8 m, L; A; F6 a. `3 s$ L5 @ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 1 V- C r A$ B+ t 7 h9 l* G7 N9 ?5 ?4 k 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。/ N n2 Z( x: s9 @
2 ^- A# }8 l% w t, H 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ ~9 ^+ w. e t2 U! S* r
: m9 [1 Y: x$ Y0 m. J3 F: W 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 * @# c0 f! g. i- n7 D9 H" T 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & k: v+ R; \) X, y+ ], m. |6 ?1 X/ Z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。( `- Z z% W! Z5 X% j& T6 {8 a
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : O) H# z! T! z4 r9 c5 q4 o% U/ W t; Y% ] X! k# q% ~6 b, mBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 s) D9 D5 I9 `" q) j
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . z! d1 J4 O/ [% Q; n: B- E
8 B1 R; a7 ~0 D# J: D: X- N' I3 fLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; L2 m( O0 J$ I: j* y. |9 b
% b; A% K" `4 r. s7 \" z3 [After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! B5 i# ?& W- \/ a& \7 ]2 a2 i 2 y- s7 t6 t9 @0 ORoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & ]6 B" y4 s1 O: j4 d% _3 T# X+ K$ N: y
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( {# g. ]& c% y: W
% E( O1 x4 y9 F3 d8 ]2 B( @0 PThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - q3 q3 G0 {' \3 Z) X( X, c2 y `
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ k2 g4 E+ k1 }0 v: k1 ]+ _
! ~, Y- G; X+ FIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) x" u' z" @8 ~: A" d# e/ o2 j) j' g" }/ j t
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' c( C$ a2 U; \ ! T. m5 y& f6 M0 Z' yThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! k* I/ @0 J$ u) N
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) T2 h' W! j# ^6 p! h2 ]; G: e! D( o/ p
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * i* J9 i W& ^7 S
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # E/ F# ] F8 }; L
+ J) A& I& B) X' j9 [) N z4 XInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # V+ Q4 y0 c7 p- r- l9 @' e 2 B( i& D% Y4 b2 {, y- p$ z, |"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( U3 X' S! j: R6 X2 ]
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 v$ a& x2 d1 j& t( q8 o8 z & T8 b* R# p+ x1 t, b0 ^0 yThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
