3 A% T# D: R* s* j4 h; H" u6 F 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 y6 H* S5 q& Z+ }9 ~- p$ A [ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 b3 r$ ^/ g' A D9 J, O2 c4 u1 t7 _" u: z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% O- R% ]2 y; g; M
, |" g# T; J( L( ?5 O7 x8 S （责任编辑：杨海洋） % a5 r6 B! _- U6 V) ^# k7 d' ]+ i! v8 o) u; j9 I
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters , q' {; J$ I4 E- H0 N5 E+ h5 ^3 {3 j. w
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + \. ]4 n* `! B( U9 m* ?3 f
% R# U# [) o0 F4 EA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % l& M5 b$ c( Z: A, s" i. d 2 C' S, C5 [9 {/ ?Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 `- ~4 B! I6 K( y! T0 u" z l; ]7 U; c% ^, t/ {7 ?- o
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 D/ Q! g1 T. F! n2 z
5 Z4 X/ B$ | ~& eRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! K% V3 O* c) S
2 O6 [0 G' \9 `4 O! C, \+ G* J
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / J- {3 G# n8 X
1 F$ Y6 C) y/ Y( c
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; {! t0 w" f0 @) t7 T: {4 ^6 E+ @ 8 U/ O8 J5 u5 Y"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " F: V' C: t$ M9 x5 I* c9 C0 V2 L% u1 {3 F: q
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. / o; T5 \" ]9 I3 @. L
0 c) Q' x4 `8 R- nGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - _8 I% x" ?" [. L9 d+ m7 g- V( p
. E0 N1 g6 }+ h8 j8 R7 J/ q3 ?+ V2 X
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 i$ ^7 s+ y& B/ k , |3 i4 T+ S+ U9 n8 m1 ?1 a) nUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 Z) a. T3 e6 N/ v8 W- e
/ h9 e# f% `4 X/ S8 J: \# c8 p
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 M7 l: H, z; p& Q: a! Z9 A2 S8 q7 o0 {. |6 [5 H, k
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % E* z7 g; ]2 ~. G4 T/ T
9 Y3 z7 j8 l! a! ^7 L; [. MInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. x: p0 M1 f# t( o* q# G) f
/ v& I1 X% f7 V' l/ d"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : C7 K, s( l1 S/ A3 b
+ d5 S# R/ i) c% J2 K9 TGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 Q4 B( t! Y4 d" z6 ~- q
