外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年4 u2 h. {+ T" P1 i' S
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 : R$ C) e. @* V1 O7 q. a8 ~5 C, S) e/ m; M
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 - N3 m) C3 c- ^6 d( `1 f4 A# _, U( G' }5 r1 i
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。2 Y! M9 n+ b% o$ N
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 5 l$ I: D5 u" ?+ D& I) f 1 ]1 [; D v3 Q: n, n 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 + A) [) p5 Z7 k9 G; K+ C2 ^" O% P " e! v- U2 G3 T& b8 m0 M 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。) Z1 V' E6 H% q' J4 }
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。+ z2 R1 B/ Q+ P: o+ Z, S7 N/ D
6 d2 T5 i* J$ u: f6 q; t0 n 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 8 E. |$ E9 u+ A3 M( O# }: o" i & @; |- {# Z- g2 q; f( G（责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 c. Z' P2 [2 e% k4 Z5 _- j" Y/ {3 B' P9 d6 a' S N% u( X" K
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters2 C6 f- s. c" ~# m; Q
- J2 ^+ r" H# MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 q; P( J% F3 }9 L. D Q 0 r! S( ?8 ^! I# m0 VA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 m) I1 X' M f8 |5 c/ [2 Z
" Q1 @2 x+ [/ bLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / s% e$ j& j/ i/ x0 N4 w
, l. D+ B2 e0 @2 @+ \' ?After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " F0 Y$ e8 `- c' m7 T- ]8 M c2 S3 N U3 @2 i
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - J& ]1 e' r+ t4 ~
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 s7 p! k" _# r& |+ o4 g. t. q. |( Q' T, x# n9 f! X( J
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) Q$ c! q8 X$ \7 f. v5 c: c2 }9 x
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 {* j0 C" M0 I! F) E4 o+ N; M
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( t! A Y7 P2 D: v. ~
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " M9 K3 G- S# p: @$ `
9 F) |* v. S( n0 U0 D7 GThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , L* z. X; F) g( k- ?% v
+ y3 F* R7 q& H+ k _9 GUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 ^3 B _, y \8 e) I: R. n& Y
2 Q' z6 C3 [9 p2 {9 W" \China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 v5 A" c, J0 M* w, j' G% T 1 |* I* d% S* rIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) A& ~- z/ m; A8 S( x; J
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) q' j5 Q* }2 u( Q* T9 @+ s5 [, F* x' X' R
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; G2 T: C; x6 m5 w" z- y7 Q- T# w8 m$ |2 T* @) j( { ~! K
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; K) Z- n* D: z7 y
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
