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标题: [中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑 [打印本页]

作者: Ampelmann    时间: 2010-8-19 07:33     标题: 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, L7 o4 I; P* s! N* \' D7 _, y9 w# ?
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
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1 t: o# S; }9 ~  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。% @" n* G9 M# A: A! V
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  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
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  b" e  M/ ]2 {6 Z9 E3 D  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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6 ?3 ^: x: N$ _, t& s  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。
. x- s6 q9 c, G4 C! J; ]" ~  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。! B; k9 @8 u! Q! n# Y

7 G5 i8 m7 V' n* K6 |  V$ S  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: K! `! S! [* p# a! P

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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters8 S  Z5 ^7 o( [2 Y  K& @; r4 j

* Z0 F% V2 @* x% q/ ABEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 j4 ?7 w6 W* j8 I- Y. E6 T
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : }" N! E1 t" N5 M. R' B
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . |3 ~$ D8 S5 ^  k( l  \& R

/ C5 H6 V9 d9 _" Y7 H2 D# J4 ^After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China.
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6 q2 r8 s7 ]2 [! ]8 A" u2 `Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) Y6 D$ A% a0 b0 x" ]6 O

# e9 F1 |7 Q2 CFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers.
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 r  G( {' A* e4 |! q' `
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 O9 ?; k% |; [; u( \3 X5 h9 ]
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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' U7 r" n5 F5 X' X, o  \# W) BChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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0 ]& q6 e5 v: j/ o9 }+ A  ^$ GIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ P9 K! }: T$ `

: Z& V, H- _' A( c' q- lInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) X' T6 r' r2 P( J1 h
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # b( i8 x- ?; u8 ]
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % G5 U6 s5 o' O4 `7 Q
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.
作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:26

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作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:27






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