外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年! k/ y4 U9 J1 `
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞4 i) A) x. z4 p9 o
4 v' |) B% ~9 z3 l& S ' n) k5 t! f" f" y/ ?4 T- E中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。, c: ^$ i. d. }2 j& @1 [
" x1 S8 a, f3 Y0 _! S 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。0 R5 [. G H" l6 a
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。5 X0 s1 U1 t% R! @
" ^. P* s! F( y& z! | 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ O, x% r0 e& C0 @! e, [' G
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。7 m' ? Q; k9 ]7 Z p
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + X0 z7 j1 S" W2 W % r: I+ I6 ]% a- K5 W 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 P s4 y7 E% Y- U' H " v6 H3 q; N, ?9 `% E" H& k（责任编辑：杨海洋） 2 c1 Z1 Y9 r) U; v! ~; V- Y: A( |4 g- S0 H* `4 `# c
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 ?6 Y4 `. L2 ?: r( N; l0 D
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 N; z8 R7 x) H- W
4 O! `4 m2 r; w+ }0 H* TA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 c9 D. C8 N: v9 y" F, C
: z. j% `8 ?5 x# ?: G# k1 jLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. K. H. W+ ^- Q4 M( d ) h7 `1 c# D bAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 5 X. B; R6 q8 _- S, l* }: S ]) b8 Y
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % n5 u) K4 n S+ p7 e& R+ S
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 T8 U b o: _
2 P* ?4 w( c D- K0 h. x/ `This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 P1 K: ~! y, ?3 R9 [
2 M) k! O, D" X1 y"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 X( w% D. B% d: L/ U% Z
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) m) W" t8 G( c2 F. I4 g $ y7 J& n: v% n8 A4 ^, HGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - d1 l- S3 p4 N+ l5 y3 d. s# ^6 ] $ h" a: y* W o. x+ UThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 E5 F) l5 ~7 K6 e& O
5 g" u' |7 f2 Z5 [& ^Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 ]# `8 v1 y8 a/ Z1 C2 x/ z; B; ]9 `0 R# _; a! _
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 N8 P7 ` y, \' h C : B% ^* X! H% `9 H1 _If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % s( F: @8 l1 j5 l+ |
2 r/ K- u8 T& s, O7 QInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - \) N6 ~9 \/ P) ^, ^! X' U' M . H5 @3 h' f: t1 r6 G"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + j6 a8 L6 i* i( q( [; Q e8 K" d% v* ^$ \/ sGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. N+ y8 s) [1 S" M! N" h% p7 I8 W0 g3 t- J$ J
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
