外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 5 n" @4 g K, ~: F& d2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 $ k P- R2 b, K* w, X& a ; m; `1 Y" e7 V2 i, K$ E1 L0 } . j7 O" r7 O- F5 ~3 F1 k& m2 T: s中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。' J8 _9 ^: t7 }$ k+ ]
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* r, y$ h' R, b( H/ }
& Q$ ^" R: \4 ]; c. ]+ w) j% {& G 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 2 h, ?+ i; B' Q/ \6 J+ s) M. u# ]& v) K: w/ v
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 , c2 i( t, P+ l* z 4 H, h- E/ F; c# x 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( E0 ~. M5 n9 T- o5 `$ L
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 2 O8 W; W5 d G% S( e ) q4 L! G1 X! i, e4 M0 X/ [% k { 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 t. p% n! ~+ e9 F* G
1 ^! w4 e$ Z1 G* D( n: ?! o（责任编辑：杨海洋） ) D7 @' N' j4 ~8 R g: t, ^5 Y8 e& a
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 e0 e$ S0 `" j: o! m. d * A6 Y% M/ |# s" d2 j; IBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( E3 p( u6 T3 Z Z8 A" O9 \
|$ `7 |+ \; w. x. I) r2 \A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # x* Y5 S0 T- [& {+ [* ^1 _- ]" k1 M$ S( T1 p) e& ^# Y$ M# |
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( h" W& Z4 E& X2 u0 @" }! q$ ]: P ( p$ L" _$ \! |4 R7 t! r0 qAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 F1 t5 j1 h) R( h; I/ ^, ~7 K, @; D2 x; b0 s$ {
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. W( G( v# k/ a
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 S$ N' B& F+ H0 b1 _: D* `( R5 s- L0 k
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' ]! M0 H3 B a# u. s/ z
' V& t. i9 y) z# |: z0 X"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 i* g2 M* m* ~5 b9 y2 y% _& J' @7 ^. ^' H9 v1 Q( s1 F6 c
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # c5 G0 Z7 R/ c0 s k* ~7 [5 O
) ~9 `& n: Z- {1 k. w5 yGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( n9 [# D4 }9 ~+ k/ z& A$ j
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 \! Y* P+ D8 }; a) w3 C* ^; U
) z( y5 n2 X/ [9 u4 k0 i+ sUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " W3 T. d, J5 _3 J / ?- J. g5 {: \# {# S" dChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 A( W6 o# |# Q+ H3 g0 H, ? 5 Q7 o! E1 b r9 DIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 g1 `6 z* ?: k# t ^& w W5 U D8 m; x
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ s* v! n0 z& b! P- Q0 i: w3 u K' c# f0 @9 \; J3 O( z# `"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! G: F! a M: V9 Z, F) S 1 M$ `. c: W& l" R, gGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( T: c' X1 F. E/ x- n7 ~/ o3 j4 u
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
