外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年2 m4 m0 b' J% F
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞) n+ W) w$ e2 [, k3 ^9 \
8 |5 O; y. y3 h3 o
6 o6 }! M& L# b( p+ A# D: c中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 " h1 n/ A# Q; @2 b& F. c2 q, ]$ y6 O' I
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % h6 R* C1 _5 x. v3 r8 o7 N0 u " Y" O5 h* k+ g+ X& n6 P 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 + R% H$ Y0 E: _4 _4 Q5 e; y+ y, C7 |9 N. `' Z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 & A. Q+ l |2 H6 f! z' \, X$ z1 Y7 |5 {! Y* z2 w
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 : k+ ^( U" N+ g( ^ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。, y" v4 n2 X% Q; f: f
* D5 ?+ L* i8 V3 m* u, t+ l
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ( b# C7 l. ~( U5 X8 Y) _+ Y, i& l( H# T) n7 c5 E （责任编辑：杨海洋） 5 _/ @1 \9 r4 P" O8 C0 G : Z( x' p1 a7 hRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters " |! g7 Q7 S% _% e! F6 W, ^- |; C. B" z- }& l. A. ~" s/ v0 I( R
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 B% T% E8 [/ X4 u5 W0 C% ]1 Z/ B" B8 g) E3 [. Z9 T
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & g2 n7 X8 O& E7 R1 b/ \
( d7 {) d5 ?- H6 g0 u
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - u% G y/ o2 z& t , |# t+ N3 L' a7 L' Z- wAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 k, z. I; b. ~& h2 O& A" E# e, W8 n! H
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 r4 k- ~. S" u
- a& O$ d6 F3 l
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' T$ I. K/ D; n0 R" a
* W8 |0 I* S n' q
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - C- f. n# L+ r2 D8 S- N2 O0 t
2 O- W, a$ H4 e+ Y4 M* V"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , G) s. Z l' j9 K( ^
. n$ a( V1 Z) |' ]1 c0 t! U: w: A# HIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . V9 h9 `/ x/ c( i0 \5 D1 A3 X' s# {0 a% r1 F( j! H" x
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; R/ J$ u% u; K* U0 G ( E: C) ~4 ~. WThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 _+ G9 j, {% b8 T& x
( c* w1 N- h5 N' e. _
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 `# v' c" ^) C: w : K5 e" _) y7 b8 s( [8 j- Q' |% B( kChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # \+ C$ o; R! P3 E& p. x% J# K & E5 K4 b W' i; l4 [' {/ @If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 {0 w2 @$ ~& a8 E' \ + M: Y; [+ n5 wInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % k1 F" M. E; N( H8 H7 W6 ?+ T5 `1 L5 i$ x4 V, A/ n" U
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & r4 ~8 V$ l+ j- m' }
! q9 Y i: x4 }% n7 ^Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 G: i& ~4 n! X Q) v/ B- b5 d' t
' ^# d. L8 ^8 w) a$ @$ n' b
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
