外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年8 y2 C8 s! [' u6 X) v& o4 g) b
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 $ j" c4 z+ X1 `* P, b1 r) g/ C2 ?7 z9 \
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 1 r/ O2 M+ s. L! U; S' ~ ! @/ h. h* ]6 P8 b+ B' {" [ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 2 h) Y5 ?1 C0 F6 r3 h0 U1 O7 T! ` ! I1 H8 H1 [6 `0 X4 U! f 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& c$ V6 r' }% f( z! R
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 * u! _9 N s& N7 b6 p w& p4 a ( U1 p* l- ~2 f 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ; S2 @% N% F/ i2 W Q 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。. |! c& E9 o! f; M7 D; O- [
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' I. I. }% n5 ~. c0 W
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 S" a# R7 ~ S: z; M
9 W H, ^+ `- w6 dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( r3 N9 j! Q9 n: a4 z! e4 R7 \
. j2 p3 V- j0 W: h) \A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 }" x2 E! _4 P" Q/ @* d( ]: f6 Q ) i- F9 v& y9 \8 XLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( w3 M) w$ x! f+ H% { ) n- L! T0 x8 l/ P% N$ Q6 F2 DAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' d: t8 [- H! X- }
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # K! K! p1 w$ [+ [
0 s* ~2 G: C# }4 G$ ]+ O7 ]6 VFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " Q" R8 F k8 {1 k- x' p ; q u1 X2 Q' i- a% A x" U# \& W) LThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 H# f8 }( {/ J1 n# j" c6 ?
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 P4 e. y& ^, d8 t# j3 C% J! W* \2 M) \2 s X$ J: [
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - q8 Y( t% L3 _. y0 b/ |0 B$ S$ z8 P# c4 Y3 [
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ h, W& x2 ^! O: ` b; A9 i) N & l) I. T0 A' Q" A. T3 U6 s( XThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 c% I' E! Q; Y: b. b8 n6 ~. K* a : B! Y' b% f# ^; O. r# z# jUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - D7 }/ c, M* h9 W
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 A8 d D5 q$ [* U) b7 w" V
( K! `9 T6 B) g. G: _4 f4 _ IIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : O: L6 R* o7 k5 z; ?9 ] y/ ~& }/ i, a; [% [/ k; rInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + G/ h& _ r- m* J: Q N # @4 Z' M4 d4 D/ l: C; J8 ^( t Z"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 i. J y! u9 v7 b3 r' u" X 8 E& O0 q& ?0 U7 X( MGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! N* D5 W/ V( I' `/ t
