外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ! X [& {# p! X8 V4 g0 [) w _# [; u* ^2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞4 I5 D* C0 W/ E W* ~
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # O# l) x8 c" y; N3 E3 K) I4 b. k! Y: u! G+ z0 d" \9 A
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。# M/ m) e2 s! u3 s) D+ A* e* i! u
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。- ?* D4 R9 }( j9 D9 P% y5 }/ @
8 g" Y7 C1 w: g! Y 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 8 p# z& T0 E7 S, Y* X2 y1 n3 m* {3 ` _6 @. ~' v- {' @1 Q C. F7 T
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, w$ E" S. H, Q4 b" |
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。7 j& ^3 B: f' m) {
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / |# z3 H0 t) i) T* _" s. y" _* @, u' H* {! }, B （责任编辑：杨海洋）" ~$ Z$ J9 T' q
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, v8 ?- ~4 R1 ~# W) t7 Q6 z" ]
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & I* I# V- i; n2 L- G6 Y$ }% H) p# r) f9 V
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 ^* l( u! C5 @: b' D# F
- j- R. J" g' tLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , |9 a+ ?% m" h2 \; h% G7 u/ n- c
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' S1 v9 `7 Y4 g( z/ G2 T 2 c0 U2 v( f' ?' [; z+ [Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 G5 T! V* [, A! ~5 T
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 G, g6 L; m' ^* \
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. + d& I" E( I: U9 P5 x8 `8 x, _ l3 \* }, N8 |, D
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; F$ j+ ^( r: p* F0 Z* [0 y3 \& K1 q" q: r; Q
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , |& J( k# _) _ 7 }( d( v* `- P6 B: [1 p1 WGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + `8 ] [: L# t' [& z q+ L; ] 2 B$ N5 a' Y- G& \1 X, ` ^1 cThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 r; a! p5 I) s4 } h- C# N4 ?, u. T' D
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 U. e; S& r' Z1 ~! W7 i3 _8 K
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / n+ H- D4 b% [' s2 j 2 \$ `9 W. U7 W. FIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 A- Y+ [& `! y8 I4 g, v! {% J
3 c0 z/ c+ B l5 C) @International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & X' n$ S$ a0 z2 D0 C5 x , Y- K6 I3 F* {4 ?- |/ S"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 Z0 O7 y% T% }( _4 C$ j6 _2 _) U: j( m5 f' b& B+ C; H
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 r2 O; p# K+ {; |2 l ( p v8 S- ?9 ]Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
