, J) b& y$ m. V# ~( C& q" ^ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 % H3 s5 T; G. O# [6 q* B ) R! @& M+ n7 O. `9 s& o3 X+ o4 K 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 6 e! u( p6 A9 m! l 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" B5 ^9 P- `0 O5 K# n, V9 V5 X# u
$ ?$ j# a$ }8 j4 @ y3 F 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。5 n3 R$ F; o0 w
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 t/ k8 f6 U4 p' h: T. S9 M
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * O% n/ l, \% G$ }: p4 f+ W( | [0 \) O2 x. t- Z
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " ?- W- W2 x, K* A
/ `0 B- v" k' u1 e: gLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " G! R& _0 X0 Q- m; ~; e - f _( w% C: U& T/ @' s) u1 GAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : p8 i1 ?# c+ ~$ W% [9 U- F
. z" @$ R2 R9 U) ]/ l& IRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 I9 W; r' u- K% ? ( {8 \6 S% b0 E9 M1 {First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 8 _0 ?; y% X5 \, b$ B$ W
( r9 i6 k; B5 U, I+ y( `This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' M3 e1 h6 l6 Y+ ^/ v0 _# M& Z4 F
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 u4 C. p, ^+ B! q" k " W( d! a- o- t+ e- X3 qIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 n9 T+ S; }9 m/ E% q
% x. _/ M0 Q8 P5 d1 E& YGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 _" I- d. G+ E3 R' U0 X& V0 r : {( ~3 Q; y7 C3 G% \. c( vThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % p7 j2 {/ w8 L. @# ]. t5 D. f D$ t& S# o, @
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ w. w/ n u% w0 P0 f. s
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : x. g5 c' D1 P( m- L9 K1 O
# ^8 R$ F$ l: `3 u* JIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 }3 E1 ]9 F2 w$ \- `
3 }5 Y) D& P3 x8 sInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , D+ f; [) f" O" K. h5 T 1 l( c( h9 \3 {"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; o7 x/ q; I1 |, A 0 v n1 z% V- C( W2 Q: y5 ZGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + q- j4 P% N# h$ f4 {. ^ 1 F/ t [" E X& l4 d( ^( M7 iThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
