外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年- l3 A; I% k, q+ e+ C
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 8 M) G K2 N/ a& X( G: n$ `1 n2 X8 D/ R# s
, E( Q, J( P6 ?中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。6 c# k9 t! P$ J+ W! A2 P5 c
' x, ]' z6 E, M
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 & Y* ^' Y( ~; w% P7 v( i) M! A7 t+ d$ B' [3 X$ x* i9 L( p
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。$ s2 O* G( ~1 f6 s$ l
8 Q$ B8 b* x, \! U y
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 " I8 n( S! D9 n1 e+ ?% e ' O; C9 h; H- d/ ] 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。8 p3 D1 ` b L4 Y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & M# ~% G' l+ h4 E- R* e( c+ O8 X; f$ E/ |0 P% u
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ( e, F, G5 l/ w- I 9 K1 u E2 N/ @( g, ^" T- l（责任编辑：杨海洋）# j# k6 v, a. C8 `9 E3 J4 d1 X+ L( \
' A# w' I% [; S( c
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) t; l( c X b$ p. n5 F; k# D
) W- k* O( G4 h; @# O- vBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 J* v7 p, ~4 d5 F ; l: D5 z6 {7 d/ X, H- eA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % I3 c9 i6 U0 p$ g& l g F. j( X8 y9 w( A7 f- j
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 {. h' \7 w/ d1 [! y) v. S ?6 ^9 p9 K; T6 K7 jAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + U3 [. ^; P, P( @1 ^ # ?2 ^: n+ O8 B- `5 p, mRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ k; z2 R* o3 Y4 s+ l9 O7 q 8 l6 E/ j: n) m! UFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : u' \- |8 r$ [9 w2 T
- Z& g7 t2 N3 vThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - }5 X; u3 \- l% _2 l1 C( W1 X* H" _+ R4 g# j! k
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " F. K7 f4 V& [6 y, R' n9 i
& k* s5 H) @9 U6 U5 k5 ]. g" a
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * w, W4 ^1 y6 ]0 ] 5 \% @& l( J+ V& W$ mGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' M3 K' ?6 K% q7 g0 B 9 C8 H- c) e+ r( b8 s: n- L0 P; _That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . X/ E Y2 j" t: x7 ~7 I4 |( S
3 f& g0 H& H3 _" [, W! I
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) ^! ~9 Y, S9 f! U) E4 b . k) W' o L8 u7 ]5 YChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 A2 M6 a7 @% t. l) F# l) I 4 p- S) e( j* _. C2 VIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : m6 @5 X5 z6 u4 y Q8 ?
+ l0 X+ L7 V6 r5 s3 o/ V
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / c. D; F! Z6 X7 K$ v$ p' x6 a; x4 u) n! Q! \
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % \' M4 o6 [* v; [' t2 P' k& Y1 G" ~0 K- T* c
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 E+ p+ H; P% V: E3 m7 c
