外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 : Z: T9 `. M, b2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ; H: o9 m9 C9 H: c( Q! ^2 U* x0 l2 ]% @) R2 I2 G
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 K' a% \! j6 b4 }4 o7 u( H& G
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- f* s, g3 ]. B0 v6 _
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' f, k8 A! g( a4 ~3 ]2 o z$ M
$ o& ^/ v0 x& }6 K K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 q: W/ j5 L$ A; F5 ]
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 : x9 t2 m; y" ?4 O 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 f0 i7 O( Q/ @' _$ B+ U) S! V& r) ~
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% o9 V3 g: ?/ J, }9 J+ K# \. A
1 w& j4 R) ?' S* I1 [ P （责任编辑：杨海洋） ( z+ V- G. G8 y/ J* V+ X8 q1 d# V3 h* Y) p4 k, p0 |0 O2 f& H- D
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters7 s s/ r, G: m3 X7 r3 i }
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) ?+ G- ]' k2 c+ d& k8 b
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! _% i0 i4 B2 p- J' O6 N8 z! S6 y! m
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 J3 V5 X4 i$ e3 i2 c4 H+ J9 {( g 2 G# p# W% K: i& l- UAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 c; H; F5 t. ^; d: v
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " M/ @$ |! E. g( `) a9 O/ N7 [' o% v- j/ U: b; V9 A. t
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - S, [+ t3 X& ^ w2 s9 L, E9 T' j, ` 0 i/ D( |) ^/ v+ T& |! `; a: YThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' V+ Q3 C3 T% X/ g# I : E# c! |# U/ o/ o"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 A) \1 A6 J1 s3 N8 W 2 T% q) c" \7 c( \5 A- i& \1 c& {In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 |7 |$ {: b- ]( t; d
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & G& K2 B j) n* h
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( G& F7 T: f$ {& {" {, Z/ R+ m$ j+ ?5 w( G+ [2 L: _
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : p/ `- l9 ?1 Q2 o( X
4 m& w) i& G7 K7 W9 Y TChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 d4 L5 Z$ f6 v7 F
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 h8 j4 ~% J4 U3 ?
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' \( f0 M8 G2 X- D+ Q! d7 W( g+ J+ p
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & h* m: z+ b# } % \+ \ e: H4 g' [Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % l: T4 L: h( s+ t
1 B4 }# d' L: g+ K: RThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
