外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年9 @. r1 Z+ e( l6 m
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞+ a F8 _2 [6 r& k8 l4 @" {8 W7 V
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。' E3 }7 D# G+ T
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。' v# V% s7 R3 q9 g! r
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 " ^8 v. u8 g) l3 y: z2 x 9 L9 w2 c+ k7 d2 z- K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 5 b, b* B4 u- v0 H: g& P5 X ' j5 [4 A* q+ ?8 J, ` 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。- [0 U" _3 i7 U4 l; D* n) y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 E3 Y p0 i0 q' Z# n+ h7 ?
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。6 `; ]" U3 K2 F* c% i
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters' F" B4 u1 y7 _) c- x0 @ z
4 N5 m' |5 h2 i( o4 Z% |: _2 YBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 [/ B( `/ e2 u$ L6 B, @+ J! o
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : e8 A# ~2 Y5 n9 W i3 |5 r
0 _7 D1 \; N: @Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - p* K- q5 x9 n+ T4 ~- P
) J3 h; S- v- G$ H2 v5 lAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " I: v, B( F% w) E" n# S6 ?
5 u0 j m9 m8 v, Z! s! lRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' E# P' J8 |! e7 C0 `/ o2 {7 U* ?1 b; M$ \
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 f& a4 v/ d% e; J1 _
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 1 h* ]. P5 [, c/ ]! S ( ^+ g- t: Z# Z- w3 C"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # b( z! E+ R1 i% W! a* M$ g6 v' O0 X7 b3 d8 I" z# F
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 p1 h# |1 v3 w$ S# c1 \- I5 z: t/ ^
+ w7 i( m8 j# U9 }Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 O7 `1 H0 h% w# q1 K/ o. P! H; l; h* x: A. E1 h5 a) a! i+ s
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 T% [: ]2 C* }$ d0 z
- k& `6 A% p) `0 X: A$ V1 aUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! } g# [, d' i6 j1 j- R. Q+ e1 O
$ J' m- r6 [( OChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % m! L- H, M/ ^+ t& X9 u G 1 _2 W/ h5 U( ]- N2 xIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * g# W; N W! k6 L4 d% k+ P, ?
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 G4 s+ j* \6 Q& q( `6 B& S
2 g- {# N4 I( \% N"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 D( I8 L( m8 ~% {# E0 }
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 A8 @) h, d' |" _; J5 g" L
8 T7 s' }. t4 d$ u1 v- o; |Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
