外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年% B( u3 P! {2 L' h
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 6 @! Q% X) [6 X" M8 R) D6 u / l5 {; d/ x' m0 l" r& {2 f / A+ J4 D# a1 o; q# N中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # Q- C& y5 [/ |7 ^. P) c ! y5 A' x8 h0 ~; J2 `( u4 N 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 8 J* L. _# L' K% ?7 l2 p, y% O! ]+ ^
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & d! U+ p: z, X- A: l7 F6 V1 E; v; C7 z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 . x W0 E* e& ^1 P ' g& `: |5 o: ? 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。# k& r5 K2 Z. p" ^
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * u' V. k$ s0 m0 T8 n* B& n' e6 n) I9 r0 H
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。/ F K) o7 k2 C2 h
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 N ?0 k# w, k! U, B5 l' ?1 K8 e
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 ?1 k! J9 k3 G3 H8 @6 @+ Z 8 k& M$ ~6 {8 l- W6 [. ?A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( C# A1 G, O1 Q/ ?/ j
k# e0 H3 ~& x7 u! aLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - U6 N. v$ f6 y# ~+ `% Q) ~. V
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 U. n' ]5 o% k& H! ]
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 p9 ~; I8 z5 U9 H' {5 F* p
8 d3 f4 f8 u( y8 dFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! a" t! ^7 ^$ q: d: M: h# n6 J) q) Q% F' [! z" @0 `! P
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & X+ N0 [; X; u7 ^3 Q- g. k9 ?% p. P. _1 S6 h1 R: m1 C9 L( `" O4 W
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( n; }; P$ S- I1 V: y3 F
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * @$ x/ ~- d: k& P6 S & y% e* S- h/ rGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 b+ L6 t$ I$ G" a
* I9 N3 X. i& x2 DThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! H( {5 g& U$ u4 U, g
& ` P1 B* f7 l' dUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , |" O, ]. m/ H, b. e* M 5 U; s# x2 `8 m/ u4 x) X# _China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! p& y! g: A; ]6 D# K& n+ C" i8 l2 U
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. d# ]0 @% o; [) X1 n0 V6 @# y; M7 G; e6 A6 f. @' h7 r
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * G W/ j* n r: I5 I. E
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 u- M4 E1 y" B( l \- }, d6 x) d1 f
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 E8 |' [( G$ y! l$ i$ G' f
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
