外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 1 F3 W9 J$ [1 M1 }2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 9 A$ N9 ]' K* L: k9 U6 Y! Q ' }4 N5 U; Y3 X ^$ Y; h ) F2 L7 w$ L3 E2 o# y
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。( B- d. Z7 ?1 l& k0 D5 o
. L* C( o6 l3 u% I# Y2 M# [$ X7 k7 p 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 $ k! x9 `" M% r, v# k) x9 V- S7 o0 R
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 4 T4 q! v/ g+ X9 F! O- @; ~+ x6 t 4 ~: V# j/ y8 @0 f# ~ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 z7 L1 O. D7 I7 p% b# H: v4 [5 R2 i, T& j5 W# v
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。3 t% t P/ e N2 ]/ g
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - X3 m* @; h8 w0 n/ Y 1 b% ]8 ~; O# ?* d1 L! p 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' e0 U7 [3 @. l: U7 x
7 E0 ~& j7 [/ Y) j# K2 P, e' l （责任编辑：杨海洋）2 ? K9 G/ B6 v+ i
! _5 U5 P( q( Q NRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# M3 R; @8 S% g n8 d0 w4 F
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 I p3 t% W+ c* @0 N" I
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , f6 E2 }" a( U, S
" j8 U; H- u* m$ R7 `; Y$ |Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & [3 U- E# }" z
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 @/ d) _; c ]4 R8 K- Q 2 t( u, F, g8 iRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' |$ I8 j$ Q+ |/ | # Y/ N8 U- j+ p% `" t5 i9 i: DFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( q- ~6 L* c+ H
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 ]- q9 S3 [7 E4 P! y8 C+ |
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! I, m0 w- h, |: z" j! H/ S9 R8 M% g$ b: [5 r" Y% [
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. / O' [! A: v4 k0 e! T- v$ l# k( P+ n* {% C( r+ Z' _$ i9 i
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . q: i$ ~5 T/ _4 e( P) l3 o) N4 J& |3 g; k( q
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + h; q) q" ^" m# h
8 R* r, _& }) }% xUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * H/ g& ~4 Y x 5 d, q/ V6 A8 M1 ?0 MChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". a- U9 V# Q" k. i; E' z/ h
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # ^$ J9 ]2 c/ G9 d2 E7 z
; T4 h. A. s. ]$ w3 D2 S. Z2 zInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + R0 {2 d8 e2 l( z# \
3 W7 H/ P( E3 |3 o* F: j"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % b: ]/ H) c4 x# }: E) ?" E
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 g( g' s, A9 D$ T; } 6 Z* X% A4 d M, g9 }+ t1 dThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
