外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ; w$ v) x, |* T) n& Y2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 7 F* w, S! V% ~% a# \/ W* r. C: O) I2 {8 ^, l
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。* p" n J: F, Y, F4 V% l
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ' V4 u2 r8 y/ F5 x$ T8 `0 H7 J% k! H3 L$ g, Z4 i
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 2 C; y* @2 V( Z2 g; w" V) A6 @( ?* G+ x8 f& \! }5 n+ K% A0 Z+ z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ y0 `4 U, k7 Z7 x, @
/ u; v! B8 s2 d Z$ B 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 / }2 M% J* y4 G- N2 w6 ~- f 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & z, ~2 m; y. X; _ % ~. ~5 T8 R5 i0 J! d! i 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 b/ b5 F) Q# W5 J7 R* b7 `" o; h/ o （责任编辑：杨海洋）. C2 h! ]0 Q* o- c i2 r/ v; B
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: S r0 F) Z0 V
4 F! n. a* x, \% i Q/ Y) MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : O% C3 F. z' D+ C2 X4 l9 d5 a$ ?3 S9 j6 h( L. `
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 d8 h8 P5 ]% C
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * d7 Q% L% @% S3 I" n3 R- Q1 B
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 y& B; B+ r+ O3 L" j! B7 j) b" j m/ N( I+ m6 B& g5 L
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . }3 H: v( [ S
+ A9 E/ c, e3 P0 X4 [First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; M( M' \% E. x/ E# z, j' Y" ] $ v$ U3 r$ Q: E* x7 x# P$ zThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( f: ^, Z+ X' N0 q* U2 ]7 d' U# y , Z8 B$ ^3 Y5 X9 Z8 t3 J"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 y/ a( }9 _; |( h! _
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' A$ |3 ~7 Y3 H2 r( R , \4 d t; c6 H9 Q t4 gGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' \# n! M6 _# ^# o6 G
2 C4 |! e4 d5 Y8 f4 KThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / A9 Q: C4 K/ r / X8 ~. g& l# W6 i% @' JUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 L+ u+ Y6 _4 T4 T4 L3 u3 c6 |
# O. d3 R! ~1 R* N4 ]China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + Q# }8 M- J' \2 s1 b/ O+ g* H w. o% }; c. b2 u
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! r+ R }* \: y' P' z0 L2 f
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & [+ b* u# k1 c$ N
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 a+ ~5 L1 A" u7 I
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " N, ?2 R, A$ |. S6 K ; `. Y- q' F2 @8 N( `3 bThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
