+ u5 Z" n5 K# o5 R+ G& P9 w6 | 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ! w$ X! l4 R$ z 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。3 Z& m0 N) h, {1 X7 S
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。* w1 v9 Z; X/ g
4 @; z$ y* z0 T6 n+ Z （责任编辑：杨海洋）! l9 \* e P% h4 q+ r7 H
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters3 h. Z7 [1 K7 l: R3 B* U
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 k1 X" R& h8 i$ N0 S7 H' K! O * q4 k1 k4 } Y D/ @9 \+ o5 O! ]A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ I9 [& G5 c l( H" `8 `3 l# b% @& e6 u& Q! K z, e- g
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " w2 O& d4 Q+ j9 \
. e! A! R. \8 [4 eAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 e8 T1 J- J+ D9 ?- L6 P4 H! k
! a* `1 J3 Y9 d# u1 M5 Y. [3 n) hRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - P C0 H2 m* @. I6 U/ z; ~4 @/ @, l; U+ L6 w2 y/ Z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' r& \# x6 ~( |' P
) b* D1 C5 ^5 n) XThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; w6 Q$ T7 y, m V* z
6 M& ~6 o6 Q4 F8 [6 ]) Q: c# T"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! I( ~0 f" p9 S
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ U4 B9 e) D0 U. y: p' K
5 F' e0 c3 O: O* k8 x3 U8 |: wGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % g8 z' v( x+ \% k
5 v P" Z& m* U8 C: ]( @9 bThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . q4 H! m9 H: w) }5 y1 Q6 B& ]* f2 C- y4 k* G4 i; d( C) F
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) m7 b+ G! T' T0 ]8 f& M8 t+ f
c0 k2 z' m% i' g2 F0 F# P! s; BChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # n! b0 q% ` O0 U( c2 e% h 7 ?) ]0 n0 Q* V: g6 wIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & S, P; }( V4 _7 ~. u2 w% X( v9 x5 k0 f0 p: E6 z0 L
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 k# p5 d! g5 V7 Y) ^; k & n4 ~6 V$ v& v. S3 B' [* W+ @"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 @" M: E# |/ U9 {8 V$ G- ?
/ A Z5 K2 ^8 g G' ^. i- X9 _; HGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 t( p0 P5 i( i8 h2 A# S m j0 I1 `4 S
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
