外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 - b7 `" M2 v: T1 _/ m8 w$ |8 o2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 / c. ]* w0 r$ c( s7 Z* V 3 {+ d7 h& T/ X9 z# t8 g4 [ 1 v% v" z& e; \4 ~3 Q4 V
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 T$ C! N+ W) @! h" s
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; k, ?1 B% ^! `2 O5 W3 J* r L9 H4 t, D% n. q9 O. @
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 / G: N$ `% W: }6 O+ q m- g: h* N F+ X7 E& P+ b5 Z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。# m. b% h3 Q: N0 `# U% y* Y
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。) j- }7 ^+ e' k2 H6 {( M( `3 j
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ) d0 E8 q' _, L; P( P4 h7 S4 F, G 7 k0 D1 [$ W) t: \9 ~5 h. D3 n 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。( `) }8 H# [4 U) x1 I9 I+ Y% y
5 K) w, \+ z+ q* S （责任编辑：杨海洋） 6 @) {; O5 b% F' k6 T ! F5 G" G- R: E" FRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 6 z# E8 h3 Z% L6 f 8 ~9 w" p& \- jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * c$ c: S; o" \* f! J1 c! \" L% `% X
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - [! e" |' T/ q7 m5 \# Y . [ ~& ^$ B2 [! t6 WLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # e2 g0 J Z( j % v; @5 a0 B: c2 pAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % Q) f2 t3 W: R5 r5 c
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + F# m- _& f6 `; ^# s1 }( \5 Q9 r 5 f1 Q9 M8 E0 {% _: ^# aFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ b3 y) b) ~$ x5 H, [ ) _# _' a$ _$ Y" N. o1 AThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % d; P* Q( E: s
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; _3 g$ d! I# { V; Y! a
! O& u7 b# x) @: o0 S. n, R$ _In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 o) n% w$ y2 u0 g+ @3 W6 p) z
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 Z @4 z' n# [. i
) R( Z9 g3 `0 ]7 n8 RThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 q, s" f I+ w" i, F
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 G9 n' Z9 w8 K3 t$ Q 8 i" i' ~/ i; x3 e( r! z3 ]4 FChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; `0 D5 e! Y% ]0 s; t
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. u2 [! F5 x4 u2 r b- ~
. E* @! H5 @4 x4 R$ Z% C5 }International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . _: g8 Y* S$ G9 O
, S+ J1 h5 X+ M. W! d0 N"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ ?% Q N6 ^5 c' `6 ?8 e2 X
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 j: b' n# D$ l# k: L* A3 d- o F6 _4 U' @4 t& o8 [ U* d8 F
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
