外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年: B: f7 x! S- l. G
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞- L0 |, u" D; k U
* b- Y. e [& G _( F ; L( T0 j: f+ d7 o. I中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。2 E6 A" V g9 f- C4 \
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。( o- n! p u! G% h
" I) N1 S0 K" d4 \ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 % u, X0 E% g0 { C& _! Z - E0 z9 l) [5 l: n: u5 i( I 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # u! G, P- N9 j4 i% {* v: W, o h4 C/ l6 `6 }1 F$ N6 _/ C 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 , q1 z/ j2 {& q" Q0 m# M) p 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 $ a& d8 D) E- x9 U5 c* `7 v ( ?3 e) l' \6 t( X1 W7 ? 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。; R+ ~0 T$ D% E# X) D1 ^! a" r; `; B
) c7 A0 X, \5 J. K （责任编辑：杨海洋） : r* r. }: L6 a0 D k; J- K4 e. o3 P$ z3 p! Y
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters+ D( E- u/ Q% q+ m) b/ Q8 q$ T5 k2 o
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * P0 H }# W. Q' U P/ p- g
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. g, u l2 m) k/ N3 T
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * N4 Y3 b# R/ G0 D+ l- R) _1 ?. D
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 B S1 S' Y' \" T& k9 v 9 n& n3 t6 h+ |1 R$ _* y9 U5 P# ^Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( i: B0 s" G+ `/ M, ~3 `5 G ) E* `, ?2 o |3 [First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / k# [& [4 y! p3 t5 S
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 t) u: C5 q4 U& }6 v/ R0 r: O; L R# }, L4 {/ f
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 S, r8 X* C6 E: T' [2 h9 p. T 2 z. q6 w! i. P% H x% t+ dIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + A. E. _( q/ O- L
7 Q: W8 O; N o m' _1 Q' [Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 [/ [7 F8 b6 k' m }5 E) a! I- ]. r9 ~; H! P4 ^6 s
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * B, V; j/ s8 n 6 M1 a/ y" R0 H5 N _Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 C. H0 h8 z' u' ?/ ~/ W ' A5 V- V2 `5 U/ }4 a; ^: OChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 m/ f: E1 |$ Y5 g- X% o* t4 N* E! J
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & _" T. x0 x9 |2 o- q+ E' y
- H3 F6 r7 d S6 } X# RInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 k ~) [ h0 n0 T. D: C' A' w8 J7 o Z! S1 F& S
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 I4 J6 V: n7 v" v- K- Z5 u/ e
+ J' I/ `. Q- R+ cGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 B3 F0 v9 w1 c n& `+ \3 \
! A8 T5 R5 n' [+ g `: D1 c' Z0 U7 m; KThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
