外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 7 A% }. w# J4 M8 z- T e2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 0 p0 X# @0 F' I6 Q' n6 b) a: L% R+ o7 f: B8 }; |. L
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 , r7 F. E ]" d& \* C5 Y/ u6 X+ M9 O- | c: F: H
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。2 s( d) j, M6 W k+ ~
8 O+ _, w* p1 l. H$ b 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。" Q; m$ k/ u+ j' U# t0 S$ m
% z: M5 g0 q+ [- N* {6 P1 K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ Y' x' v% ~ R! z- l$ w
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( M9 R8 {' V8 Q/ v: I/ c, Z- l 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ; b- \2 p' [- f" L* q2 Y; c/ F( \/ P: `0 D3 B
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 O" l2 B1 D+ c& e3 V4 P
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 \# U5 F7 O( w! t' { 0 a3 \! c/ i `1 o: w) \BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 G/ x( [/ |* ]5 u# l/ c
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . N% t4 D1 a% v- V- i ' y* T3 W: f6 H3 O: kLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & b1 a" N& }( g( I7 x8 `7 R5 K
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # j4 T8 u0 w; H& I6 v- ~( f6 @% B9 T8 _$ B+ j$ D$ s. t3 L' [, C1 K# u4 g
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' @: U+ G5 v& | w/ }* o ! T0 i* k2 A" v4 [& ^* DFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' ?2 B6 @& p* J( @/ t
# U% w- v9 L$ b% K7 p3 S5 tThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " P& R9 G8 C5 H6 v, Z0 W5 u& o* I" z; Z1 T8 _$ K6 O& w
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - S% e6 L1 \) N) S) Q) O% O
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 G+ V2 I# J `$ J8 Z7 g$ _- [+ S* `9 x2 F8 q) `* E3 y
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ v2 g3 Q* b" e7 ^9 T/ T' D L8 B$ Q1 X/ n+ V4 B! C6 q
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 W8 z! v; e& \3 I# X; i1 { k7 L3 r. \3 P
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : L# P: L, x7 A S$ W% T, x/ A" ?. a3 |/ e7 {
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ |) z' A- F$ A! t! r 5 g9 Z; `+ f, ]. w2 O4 B4 P7 QIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! ^/ @7 J3 N2 G. J5 L . a# q' i! j& v. n Y2 SInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 M! F2 d4 Z9 ^. J0 ~! b* [
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. * o. `4 s" S$ O" V 9 a3 k* t9 H% }* k! v; Y" FGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! e0 h2 J3 n- ~8 s ! p4 t; O! t Y# g! b! Z* B9 J$ J* hThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
