外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年0 l d+ `) i, r) C9 b9 [
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞6 q0 M& |" V" P& l; C4 o
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。4 t6 l0 {# n( w
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 $ m$ s$ S% e+ d' o. s( k$ B , A" p' Q& M' b2 T4 J 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。# M6 R0 p6 V4 U( z7 k& O1 f3 b9 w
F% x S5 X' X% u5 M 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 % V: o( ^' ]) Z/ N8 n6 Y) Q: i P" L
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。5 n' J# f% m7 q$ G) a" {# }
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" I1 e9 g4 a. y9 y, C# ?. ^4 B& h
8 _2 `' Z" f6 J1 E5 } j) Q 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。$ u( k3 G5 H5 d' V* X
4 u2 u, q |' ^: `' H) k（责任编辑：杨海洋） ; }0 t. C. S8 Z$ g& [, U/ @7 Q5 n4 A
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters . Z, S1 ?! y+ D5 Y - Q* N+ o/ v8 mBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * e9 o; p5 O& m6 p+ L. g: ]! B9 A! z
2 M" A# b+ P/ t5 u( }A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % ^& q( r2 y* v3 ?* H* O& T7 q) @ u7 ?; ?2 F4 b. l. O
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + x- B. H, j9 o& \4 a; S2 B2 r3 V# A4 F
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * A3 ]# m; E. Y# x. E$ `3 b * y: S$ H9 v R8 P! e' i( PRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 u |; Z/ [/ g# q $ `$ t. }1 I8 o" N4 f. ]5 r; ~First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " M$ L/ x8 F5 e5 j6 [1 W$ s, L- _
- E: v: R3 A1 b1 v5 G3 `/ GThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 ~) X* u s6 H. k7 k- b 8 O+ [" Y* c. V" }3 Q( h2 ]2 k"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) j+ ~2 X7 e" A; \: Z) F5 I" e9 l3 l9 b. ]$ Q H
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : f/ E8 U T6 q& u; } ' e4 \+ e/ P- W1 _Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * f& o" j- L! \& M% R: u4 `! \: N/ d5 |: R6 `& v0 w
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : A5 K! U0 r: y
/ X6 \. o4 U1 G/ P# I8 e t0 QUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 S( E% K/ K! C) r1 F: A% B( Q9 U z' A, O$ y+ V
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " `' y$ O! J" O5 {9 ] * B0 t) F8 O8 `, @# L2 cIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % G3 Y) {+ I, M$ i 1 o7 R4 ~1 Z& S1 x% i( e( w& T' _International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # K; ~( ~ z7 U* I 3 v0 h! I& Y/ l. Z. V8 X" Y" \"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. * ~& h X* u9 l& f3 c
3 h9 J0 q$ I$ R! pGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * {0 I2 b. o, Z; |
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
