. _6 N7 k {* C* j$ t中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 7 |6 {: T/ R! U9 x& T4 v! ~! S0 V% ?3 I6 B
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 . \3 I, l, J& @4 n 4 X3 W& h4 O. n+ A) ` 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ( X7 p6 n% j2 H' L4 l- T8 F- J) R7 d" w9 t9 I" u: y
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。; T- ?2 v) G5 L* \5 G
1 O1 g$ W- d9 ]9 K n6 i# I
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。5 \. E- }+ K% P# } c% |8 [
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 1 r8 q9 U+ r8 l) M# E+ F6 p6 ~6 i3 U# s" ?! m. z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 % b/ y9 w, X4 V% ~+ \0 v8 ?! \9 s- e* C) N; l9 Z （责任编辑：杨海洋） L6 n7 _% t+ o
1 |/ i0 F7 v; o {, U
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / |1 ]9 \4 O- F; X8 @" i, W4 h) e# r- O
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : M( ~9 w( `9 j E, [5 M5 M
+ z7 R& v7 g) X( {3 U7 FA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % b. _0 ?! U; C ) j* ^( v3 f( u/ LLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( ?3 ~$ H! H7 ]2 f8 X/ s) t6 e6 F; j7 B. s
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 5 J: g, D8 t& L. @6 u! ?
' R/ v# X3 N& I) y6 K5 m
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . N6 L( F5 g* H2 H
4 d: j0 e/ u( r1 E3 |' wFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " _! H U* c7 R. o3 x6 R9 |, h3 i! {# [* V& l7 m
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ x+ l# O+ _% ~+ H+ B0 @. d; I" L- G" m# V4 P, t0 C( O
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ r0 M! o# t0 J) z* g
$ F2 k* e+ Z# y# H+ R d. |- ?' nIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. F, m: q) R: M3 ]! m) P, v9 ?
" G3 Q: V& X. S/ c* E* YGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. m+ N( A# a1 q. o* d- g # x9 ?+ j6 ~5 iThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 f$ B6 ?3 w9 Z$ F0 j2 P9 k% n , n [) V3 o5 }) Q7 E$ R: ]Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 g0 G! ~8 u* S+ Q7 X1 g9 B" G3 W; j7 \ ]# c3 ]5 @4 Q
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( t# K- \/ @* Q5 q' [' n4 _; M
# @$ E1 Z% c2 j, o' u r0 \" x
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 2 z8 _* Z' h$ O4 X* u
! W! ~9 [$ E3 p9 }
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 f& D7 M& t2 V/ a0 h- T1 \6 ?! k 2 D6 h% ?6 i( @. {7 a" I"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' w& R _' k @7 e( j0 i
6 m& ~% {! `& ?, p% n
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # b) x7 ?+ h1 T4 }
