外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 l8 \& m% w m3 I5 H3 S2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ( X5 u9 \) t. \3 C a+ V7 g , b: ], w6 ]( C 1 |$ {7 ~! f8 K* A2 E中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。7 x' l' P2 K$ ?. }: c1 p
% W0 b, c; U" p* \; g 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* E$ a" K" U; c1 e7 L0 _" |: B
9 H7 d6 {# l, e, g" _& _# j h 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ; D; m. K% }9 }( o( a9 b: Q3 K' Q* K4 E$ \ Z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 & c4 A* e; }7 ?8 ~8 v8 w% Q3 ]# @& Y3 L
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。9 D: r8 v2 v2 T3 P
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ! }# E( s- {' C' `5 f * ] `0 e: ?6 N! k5 M$ w" K 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。" ]! X0 u; @# f
' L3 g8 R) ?, j0 Q( ^ （责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 Q$ z3 N, z9 Z: _! ^5 h$ z8 b# ^# f ! h7 i9 e: X" N# d0 {- n5 HRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters }) y+ t3 X' n% {$ ~) A7 n8 Z # P# k, e* a# F- vBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 G, r3 k$ W; Q7 G& ~% y/ l [& F4 k5 W6 g
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , h" p8 J8 Z0 V) U# C& p7 d* z - d& I9 x' U( `7 @# F" bLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : d3 A* F9 P8 g7 E" n8 l# z
, K7 J+ j- {& \After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; f1 c3 N, G( j2 u7 A7 p: n2 X- ?; b! V& W1 L
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 e: ]6 m% b; d) K. A
& ]3 O& i7 ]7 @, k* A9 TFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! F4 }% n# ^$ n5 a) P
$ r, d$ s0 z) BThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 S" R; B0 b1 v/ f& `! O& }, ~2 C
" d- o9 f% k P! {+ P"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 x* g8 f* }' ^: n$ C7 B& s$ O6 U
! x% g- F. L1 j B5 sIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + L4 `5 X0 J8 X% v. n: X* k
$ I# m) S8 q0 f0 c; F4 ?& V
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + L0 L- J+ t/ r6 l" i! Z- W* ~/ e7 B2 c' }
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # D, p) l$ {0 H( |: G $ o+ D; @, R/ c- sUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 ~0 b1 Q9 [7 J: Q
5 q6 q- J4 H, v6 v1 P: m' K) B
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 h- V+ ~2 g2 f' L& X
0 P9 z& }* K+ J ~: |& O; l
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " ~* G8 o! z1 h3 `
1 g# `) q5 D1 @
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ t% r3 i1 s8 B+ {( I9 ?) W# n2 w2 g
4 o7 a/ h: i9 h A# x+ `1 d
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : f; f* T9 B3 C! }9 g/ B1 Q6 W) i! \
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 ^" C, X7 h5 _: C# }$ z: p
% F* a4 k" J. ^" l* w
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
