, ]( i; g q. j s( q5 h E i, b. S! F5 m3 s中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。; K5 L9 S% X5 `' {6 G$ }6 e6 P
q$ W, _9 I4 e4 E 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 , ~- k$ ?# ~: K9 ^- D. o. C7 Z" a1 k0 _1 T. h# f
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。" X0 q; I+ S; k8 V5 i0 [; p
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。! X; `9 b1 D( W5 D+ h0 M% }, [! J' R
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。. p: L: A! \, Y5 f
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。+ V2 q/ ^. [; V' z& D0 ]" N9 P
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ u3 W- U6 [/ q: V/ s: q
6 c' |) }/ I( @+ O' E) v （责任编辑：杨海洋） + h1 l0 H: l6 V8 R+ I& k6 E. O5 t3 j) K% e0 z9 K
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, i% z9 H' X$ {
1 S' _" A/ n* o4 G9 JBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 L% r! c' O9 w0 ]. @- l: B- u / m. [& g- x! f ~" l. XA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - P# a1 w& u7 ~ Q( s ' S% o! A" c2 ]& F' `5 HLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / Q. ^/ c; {. s3 ]1 t) H9 B
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. - d) r! a4 N+ o; f* T8 y$ e/ J+ N% q5 |9 U4 g
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 p: C9 g" u" Z0 t* ]
2 o" |. g0 g. C) dFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 t8 T" }9 Z& [& F
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 @$ f8 N0 O7 S9 s( O' @4 e9 A! n: F. E( q/ I5 X$ V* }3 W. L
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 Z n- @5 {+ @- G* G& N0 R% O9 \" w- C+ w5 H
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + S4 V0 g( X' x L( N6 R4 t# h7 @' P4 hGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 D/ ~2 ]+ O9 t: Q, f P5 p6 A
( _+ `& i& }8 x0 U! H: S5 |That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. v% [9 L" A0 a2 z) Q% @
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 t/ p0 b! E4 [, _+ ^5 d6 G8 H8 a: Q$ d& a0 Z) j' ]2 e
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , J- s1 I$ V9 h! W1 u4 T
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 ]# L7 V2 g7 p* x+ n/ g
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; j8 k" H, t$ ]% Q/ P: X ; d- i% X% F& D4 c) |"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) h4 ^/ `6 I8 V5 Y2 _) D
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; {0 R! g( P0 m$ i6 t! | 4 h' e E8 I. ?+ U0 C6 CThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
