: i- X* U4 I9 n1 A' V0 A8 l6 X, B" i 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 |, ?& C! c6 P, \( ]6 M/ M 5 P5 g* o# }5 P4 Z; D/ Q4 U( _ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 D0 c/ e) x* ]% b ~6 q9 r% m0 E) x! b 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 " @ r3 v3 D6 u5 q& r/ f2 b8 }+ N) M; o+ ?2 r
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。* ]! m0 X4 ?+ a+ G
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & t0 |5 i! I- W1 h7 X) @8 A + E7 m4 v/ u5 X4 d B8 m 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。( j% M, I$ a- X: ?
0 |9 u! Y: n7 N3 L4 P J O7 R（责任编辑：杨海洋）9 o- I9 N, C8 T* D
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ K7 Z8 {- n/ J5 X* [
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ z. ]# t8 t; |9 }; Z
2 P. R3 x' \; _A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 R, Z; G o4 T# v d6 F5 h( u: x 5 P! ~9 J3 i+ F9 h- x; cLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : S9 k8 c1 i% _& D* X j
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # a; `) m2 ?# x0 _4 c
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 l* q+ L( O$ _3 _9 K! p
+ b; \6 G, }- f+ M o. VFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 q& g/ e: g) l5 b3 e' {7 D( k* k2 [- M$ O9 d, P( ^
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * b; m* b2 H: ~/ }
$ w6 Q# `( X8 K- Z' N: l! ?"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! T" b3 r4 B- j/ a: h: `+ M & W$ ^3 B6 v! U4 UIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 h* Z- W8 @- H" s+ q2 @* C4 I$ w5 O% U4 u, l3 b/ G" X' b
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ [ `( r Q3 a0 G" Z7 R/ G8 \! H- t! A* _( t2 ]" j
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * ?9 j1 c- z1 a( b# B! V: H) D 6 k4 }( g. {: z W h3 mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " _8 B) o, I6 t' B0 B% k& w' h2 B% Z3 l) a
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! W( Z. z0 W0 }( W; X9 d
. L/ z7 o! n& b8 T7 r! i6 zIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; @# D$ m! _8 N s0 o
) ~, [% l; p; EInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 t# y) x7 C" @! y2 ?3 i
3 i4 s# w2 P0 \8 I5 T; f9 H"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) |8 g' \# U- I& ?' Z " U& h0 v8 g# J8 KGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % F# E) {: u$ D. m8 a4 \9 k( V4 @6 f3 R7 Y* ]
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
