外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年) q$ j& H# M8 H) v" s
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 4 \' J% U% u* Q p0 Z' ^5 k3 Z- ^8 @1 o . h8 x1 z% N" L7 H+ ]1 o中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。* P: n' V% H6 }
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 3 \- L9 I0 ?' x! m$ x" Z( t 1 W3 t3 m) m( @& Y" \) v 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 8 f; M" n4 x2 \+ v( _; W0 Z4 D! W) u! |6 F
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。" U3 G) P& N6 q; G3 i
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ; ^1 G. `$ {& t% i- B; f2 @ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# @; r& @& h+ s# ?4 r7 {; {
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ( p2 K& B, f5 L! b; d/ F ! G3 f8 v# [. l8 i H. V（责任编辑：杨海洋）+ s; j! A! u, r( T9 F% a. X4 ^0 \& B8 }
! A7 g" g0 Q- u* l; FRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 I% j& }9 ]+ E. w! y8 @% l0 ?4 \
: Q6 ]% P8 M5 u8 }, jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * g( q& n# c8 B/ G
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! C/ P6 ?; Z. Y2 W! y* o6 N. a2 |4 K+ Y) V
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & B, ~/ D0 W7 M! r# E% X
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . ?% E7 [4 W1 d3 b' B5 m4 ?$ b( g# D& I, h
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( z' W6 K- }' C% `. N 6 w+ d. U, w+ U# W: gFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 \9 z" M: S+ E5 @- A, \2 J ( B4 m0 e0 G6 r' @, ?% j* I% {/ GThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( c7 I3 X6 ~) H7 W) f 0 z, ^! M5 R0 ?% l5 K) G4 f" o"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . Q3 E- b: O: U9 l6 r2 c
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # X' R" l7 ]) F2 h) D: q+ F; O5 k( \- l. t. N2 h
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 g1 E7 Y4 n, a( d+ P6 g7 S3 v ?& L6 |( m+ b7 Y5 vThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + B' a' l* [5 q5 M3 ~$ B$ |
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) w: a! q" s d3 e$ ~& L' V" Q
3 Y$ A/ v' O& G' wChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * k ]9 J5 z& \% H; }: Z I. B6 h* N& w* j w
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 2 Q* O: u( |" f Q5 U: i
4 p% l/ _. e" |$ U1 x" U0 Y* aInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 m1 W" l9 [: e' }5 V' w: J
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' H0 b0 [( O o2 N / Z5 L0 m; E1 w: w: m/ EGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 w2 y0 R' ^* M; B8 A( o9 Q5 E s
