外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 e" }( T [- c% x2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞' U0 t V* M/ ]( H# ]: ^* X& D
8 k/ @ j. g; @$ x + {! k3 N3 h4 V- u& o! T2 e中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。! r6 z8 k& P" C' f& u6 }$ Q
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 . K3 D Z; l. O2 O9 ]7 n* |" s! `5 A+ u$ B; q4 P
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 F' f- l- Q3 U* P# M& B ) a& p. b) V$ J: f 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 n# { V6 B& ^ p9 \" |; ~5 T
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 + [! a' z. x! N4 v 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# S7 b# H& C* ^5 M9 o5 G+ k& b
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : T7 A1 @. a' P- }/ ^9 u6 ?( J4 A7 ]) d6 c. m （责任编辑：杨海洋）( E1 O7 t; c8 U6 T: [
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters; w- ?8 s- i& f/ j+ M
( R2 }; U- Z: s9 D' wBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * F1 l' B# r+ a& N9 @4 o B w* X# g4 y
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 Z' Q9 j# q9 V4 F. x
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 W T3 \1 _8 [2 o" K) E * t/ z4 g8 j0 {After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 i, Y! }. R6 a1 j: o4 s0 j. t
; v+ L# }6 G! cRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - c* o9 x2 R Y: w / Y2 T7 n( m! [2 S" f3 c9 }First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! G/ E" k5 G, [! H1 i 6 W" o+ `* U( }; NThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 w9 _5 e0 Q5 c( m7 q# ^- H& n # B0 |! u* w N"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ P, ?# x7 @4 d( D3 `( e2 l( \$ k" N% [0 _: G; m; y5 ]
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - }9 C0 s% }& j: x9 _' n: ~9 C * C2 _: v5 J1 W( {Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 D! f6 o+ \( i J$ R
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * R! a/ l0 E6 g6 }
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ; s: ~5 S% o# u1 Y9 P
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 ^/ Q" i0 ~/ F5 v8 p
0 ?! T7 U1 D, i8 Z( u2 u9 uIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 p" L- L+ J! M( R( M- V6 u3 b3 E; w1 j- `0 @6 P# n5 d+ ~
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , [/ M+ I6 G4 R5 b4 P* Z. y
/ C# ~9 {7 [( A! O5 V z"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 ?# a# g- e9 }0 [. o2 N, e6 R
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; T3 u: b4 ~# a : t6 Y6 k: o! A7 Q3 w5 m7 ^6 R0 d6 }$ lThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
