外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 3 |: \7 ^; |# \" I. b0 M# e2 j2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 : k2 z Z, M: u& q% ?" K/ c3 J4 F! c4 F, S
4 ^+ p. m; w1 h( X8 i中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。! }3 X; x* K' Z0 d
- U# O2 w9 A4 t* e- {( m 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % E, Q1 {; k+ ]3 n/ R) A0 e; n9 F( O2 [5 r
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 z t) I2 {. x W1 j9 m! E! d8 S 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 8 b! e6 ] Y" h) f) w) w( v W" s+ i& l$ W: F, c
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。; ^8 m5 T a9 M
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : g. _1 _0 _; i1 i) Z' P/ ^+ z6 I ! _) ~$ {5 q% }1 v) P 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。) @3 V+ k7 A$ n
) L0 @3 n% f1 A2 `( s（责任编辑：杨海洋） 3 b; u7 ^# N4 c , E7 A; c' j- b! v& qRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: c Y$ r# O+ Z9 d1 Q
5 `2 [) s/ z) p& K1 P: JBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 K. k4 s; a+ I# v* \& t
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! b+ Y1 t% ^; ^# X, X " e) ]% _ w) g; J7 V1 KLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # h0 P) O7 T" H3 a0 }& D$ f3 S; X& j5 Z3 J, \: e( w! m( E
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' A, {) k7 C! S- b5 ^: c, D
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . ]4 S- Y4 Q1 e1 f8 ^
/ {( f4 _4 a' M) k( kFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - G5 s: l# @9 ]9 R* B1 ] 7 W& C! Q" _$ b) |' P2 l* V8 hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . Y' H0 t8 K- z; ~ 0 n3 F3 [/ T* U2 O) X4 I"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , d' U- r+ h+ }) \ D
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 u/ f3 W% ]0 O+ { . x) I9 w, x$ [& q* p5 NGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ R- o' {, c' j: H; v. _2 L4 K
5 |9 W- B2 ~$ O0 H4 I- ^7 uThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) i7 ], x2 o, d8 e2 {
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : o9 {, W6 \# l+ S L. y' N! }$ W( e* J0 k0 F( P: q! w9 ?& Z
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - { e6 M9 j, i% x: d% U0 A* Q' q6 `9 B G. I8 v. x
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # E6 N. n/ F* m- t( q
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( e6 ~ U- x0 ]8 ]# f6 H. O( {0 E' @1 C
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 o! ]# G* i7 B; [0 K
$ Y. y# J; N+ W% ]6 b8 K8 F& hGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : W6 L% o, f3 n! I# ?6 U + X, n/ N, Y* x- z( ?3 P/ ]! yThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
