外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 & M" Y! [4 I- z/ l3 j2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 8 z+ c2 ^" j/ \# i0 q4 k, X1 k* |# f0 t% a% R2 w
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 , V, [* E+ \* q " o' Y8 e+ |: O5 D 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 $ f- g( R: R( [8 V/ }9 t" j+ \8 R
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' O4 b0 I; U- n, W6 C' H0 b! F : [: A4 d2 j" u2 j$ A 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 L3 k* g: Z: ~1 o" T p 2 L4 r* @' v5 b4 Z+ [% i2 O 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 6 z' o$ e5 p% h 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。& [7 M, Y) g* `$ q# ^ [, v* T
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。1 J- L& Q( @1 G1 z+ N: n- f$ {' p
- b; }6 i( g) ^5 U- v（责任编辑：杨海洋） 6 W/ {) }# e/ b8 a2 k " h4 a1 e5 S5 \: [: s( qRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters . g6 C6 Z0 n; a9 \* ~ " g( _6 a( D6 F6 i. ]BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & u/ o) G) s* z/ L G! j4 |5 D 3 h7 Q r2 A& Y H, F" ~A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 j: o* J Z- f- t+ V, `9 k5 [( O6 @8 {+ D8 z4 S/ A
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + L( s q2 _; L! R
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 M7 Q! M, S- A% E
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # j; D h4 ?) a3 ?% `& C 8 @- s0 M( x5 iFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 8 T* C$ R% B& }9 C* F5 U
, i7 M2 z: r ]. RThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 Z z9 s0 M0 T
5 E% N# a2 y% G( U1 X$ c8 u"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 L! X3 [6 \1 P5 R7 W% ~: W
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 P2 n$ u+ ?9 E / C: V2 a9 \: W. xGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % B& Q5 p0 i" n" }
& Q2 l7 z* |9 l4 x6 _$ V7 o8 EThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' C! A2 P0 i" P X: A _/ @: e; i3 d, B0 i2 q
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . v( S, d. T9 `5 _6 j+ b 3 r; C& D' Y# IChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! H8 D x4 {: v: s% k6 E: Q! t- u7 J) h& `. G) r1 q
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : M% }6 J9 A3 O" I' c2 q, x6 m0 D9 I$ r1 H9 H h9 @2 x& w
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( w; @% T) o* F' @- ? # h& {. D8 e7 H+ D- m"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( {2 Y9 F* k! K% T% b9 e
# c- m( v2 ~+ F3 SGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. g# z9 ` ^1 r, u: E& P% ^0 Q% D
