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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。4 I3 n8 f. [' D# n
1 h; D) j# \) T: {0 g( j 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* S& c3 a$ _# h. U, i) U& J8 `7 l
& j, S m# ^. g+ ` u& Y& P 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。, \7 a. n$ F# u1 ]' A
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 W# V J) t' Q0 T/ G
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。: u% T. e; V$ {& A; p+ q
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。, @! T& z7 g8 P0 `! Y4 }/ {
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ; q1 I% A. z+ M! L5 Z/ g! S: J$ V3 i$ j7 }1 a7 N （责任编辑：杨海洋）- o7 ^# k, V, R6 m9 s$ o
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 f9 r9 v; M7 f% i. O q( m5 D' A$ q0 v$ |$ V3 r. ^% E
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % `, o O) o4 e* p' s0 n% e
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * i5 ?& _8 t7 i) A* _$ A' c; u1 H$ B. w- M% v' ^9 P
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! j' b4 w8 M. r% L: t
, m4 {. e4 p2 s: wAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : I" K: m5 f/ B @0 w2 g+ F5 N( s" [8 K
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # T/ B2 A; i2 e: ? U7 R S" E1 w3 u. D8 j* B
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! t6 A9 {; W* k/ Q B/ j & w ~' {& P2 B. pThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! e5 Z; ]8 n5 k W6 f$ O9 }, T 5 q) T; A R! p3 q5 |- D" e/ ?! e"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 ^3 f. j! _* o& h X# G 0 }: V; D9 t: V3 h5 D& TIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . O9 B Z1 z# d7 l- t/ ^7 k. @- b( X: Q9 ~# @- ~7 q K9 h
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 A: g9 F- N, I8 o0 e7 W/ a/ I 3 T0 K1 i3 Y" UThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # i' a I. k1 Q+ m- j& P7 O) M) t- J, c1 e
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - t V0 l+ ~; P0 G/ Z/ x, s$ V' R2 ?
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 W) `8 v/ O) P6 D/ z. i: G0 C* j6 D5 L7 E
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; _2 |( X4 }+ ~" N! f
5 L$ {5 _" d: o, M/ gInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 L8 q& Q. m5 [& b" D0 G, G, k. [7 D6 K+ J1 m
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - I: |3 \, J% J# E4 _7 p# o3 t; ] 6 s6 L: a; y4 q: Q( N# O; a. ~0 mGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. [- e0 ^( }' P3 k4 _5 M& W+ Z, d9 O- I$ W Q
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
