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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 2 G- I9 Z) D" p* \6 h$ r 1 \7 C' L# m" W, F( {. a. ^ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 9 S- t" c5 i3 ]6 E8 O, j1 [+ C; p$ C. @; m! n2 W
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 % Z9 P$ D& H/ ]* P0 A; T % z4 p0 |7 u6 q7 v3 s- G' ~ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 p" }) u0 w* ]- L
5 S3 Q, Y9 f$ @/ S+ Z) S6 k. E 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 # g* P- N/ L& @; O9 h 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 n" Q2 u1 p# l) \+ i9 d. }" ^7 n4 Y# G% S& J8 o
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : E% z/ v( {. u/ { 2 T* E% k7 s; m4 y3 o7 h7 W（责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 |1 L( K4 x- D- W 7 {; P; V6 {( W4 |+ v7 u% Y7 dRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters7 ?& R, K! R: w( |* u
n7 e4 D% C) @% |4 y, SBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # f0 f0 p# M# ~: G2 j2 e% [ $ ^4 [0 c% q! [$ o8 }8 ?1 [4 r% sA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! H* G5 f: j, i; ` X: E 9 _6 l; x5 p1 ]: T& G% QLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 `$ [6 r- h' ^+ x( |
+ r; I" ^& F$ ~After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 t& ?! \; j, \4 Y. v% `+ b, z9 ]1 r$ O" O- n* h4 g, u1 u3 k
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' O$ l& t" I9 E7 t+ G
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) z: S& w1 a7 Y6 _; {" L: \" J+ u' `4 @0 |) l
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 `! M4 ]* H5 h5 j+ D3 \: ?# U9 P! [$ H4 s5 N3 \$ ]: I
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! f9 r& f1 a; W, f0 G- i; Z 9 y* B6 k. O4 }4 z5 C$ iIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) w! f8 p4 N. r1 j# e1 `! ]! w+ C! f, u" Q' k
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # D- o* }# [% W) N5 Q" T$ m1 ?8 E# A B
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 a1 j- m$ K) N9 D* I. Y3 V" R& g* z! q3 L
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 s" X+ } p; d3 n 8 j0 Q0 k1 I; ?* n& Y/ e1 I' O1 eChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . z8 v) K6 m1 x
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 D$ e% {; r3 ^7 P 4 i( U8 M3 Q' J6 H& wInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 i* \: a5 b$ y$ }0 y
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - ^! `# Y% v6 `# n + V' g {6 g5 pGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : v2 _: Z( ~, M; M# U6 d3 Y 4 u7 m. y7 ?9 E$ _Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
