外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 2 f. C' i0 R9 N" x9 ^2 X5 |2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞1 B4 R. k* u; u! G
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。: m3 ?& h1 B3 B4 r9 [+ x
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。. V" O/ A, r6 _. B
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' S) {( x! z8 x% F
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 - C/ W' _9 J9 b$ i5 R* ?) Z4 P, \
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 \: t3 }' `7 z( d5 {6 W6 ~ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ; y m) O1 g9 y3 o5 D6 B! c, _' F) ^- [) N& {* @
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 A9 L( z- I8 ~5 |' X/ a& I& j （责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 P' h0 f! b8 Y! c1 D5 M" \: h/ |8 T* ]0 D3 _
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 1 k; S$ `5 q' e/ |* Z! j: O$ |% f) E0 u# t) ]9 \, H& E* G
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 V, | E% E: N$ W. t
# i- e) b7 k" l! `( zA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / j8 g! Q b; H2 Y* ^* O$ A( n0 n& m6 l+ a$ L0 |) R
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % g+ [* _, g0 O& Y, D
5 M8 _; B S, j0 g1 r9 I6 AAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / T! d0 B1 U3 T3 f + s7 h- R5 D4 s& ?" oRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # C9 Q8 G* i* X: t3 ] 3 ^" ^, u' a9 v7 jFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( ~ X. o, T P5 q g, P* e* D ) |# `: ?/ F/ a- A5 Z8 _) r+ K0 r6 |This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( N6 I: U; t/ m6 o& q* |& Q$ q$ G; |! M" M# U
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 C) g& r( H' w" f" ^4 F
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . ]$ n4 }# I& Y) {; x
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 t$ k2 L; h) R) a: x1 u) C
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 {' r3 A9 A; A% i! g8 a1 ]1 B6 ?( \" a
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' E, S1 d0 x8 j* D
3 o' }5 {3 s- A) JChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " P$ l; e. x5 ^, H/ e
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . y" n3 G( `4 n! r2 Z
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % D. V7 t. l5 ?; v) U5 n" D$ u: b8 d
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & _ i) C# o2 j l ' K7 Q) P j' j- b& pGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) K$ O+ J7 i3 l/ ? 5 p$ z2 l3 R: @8 m" tThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
