外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 % ?: q* ^9 R( b( }" p2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞) p( b {+ C( M5 ]; e# C. p
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 2 v9 A/ Z/ v! i9 j! n2 j4 N( \) P2 K : O! q. p( a7 y% i 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 9 [7 D+ o( `# C! Z: u- n* w2 L5 Q Q: u W3 d; x
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 1 Q1 C6 j" ?/ i1 \8 a3 w# F2 ] $ S( J" [! t! t0 x4 Y% B 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 % z4 ^( r- O1 X' n! d2 J/ p5 I8 U; ^( C/ D
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。- V4 p6 j6 B2 _ u1 t% N5 m
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ' i. E$ h {2 P8 G' E * r/ w# t- a; G- F; s 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * f4 G$ }6 A* s- C' o" m- l* d1 }: L5 ~& X （责任编辑：杨海洋）+ l+ Q4 f, A9 Q5 {
5 C ~- r3 @& Z: LRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters & B1 P- q$ \8 ^4 ? D$ m 5 h9 C) u0 H3 q8 ], m/ J7 e8 k ]BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; R* w' x5 @. S' E. y' H7 }/ k2 v: P- P/ i+ n/ N$ j; q" S" K
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % m5 }' J, {. |
8 }6 H6 ^* f+ t) J6 S" xLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 f( y; M- A+ }+ _ w5 z! [. v1 x! a9 |5 i+ N! W( q A2 z/ F* [
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . l) D, V& r6 |) U2 [3 i: u
9 C2 o& ~4 L P9 p. L7 ]Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 t) m7 W7 u6 L0 ?/ I e& j, t
# H2 r |( L9 m4 b( x [) q, ZFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 F$ e( u- h. K3 f; p/ P- t' W) U' B4 B& S% ^- B
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " _+ K' x! F, W1 X' n! i
' h# F3 d1 f$ J1 D"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 t# Z: J" H1 J6 T
) m' L$ I! y0 T. YIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 _' e4 t) A& U0 m m$ b5 G' f6 e7 O8 L: K9 _
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 x3 g7 u; N9 b+ i % o2 u( c4 S( F$ o) x) }; q7 ~That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # V3 _! h! W" C7 X& D9 \6 W6 L" M7 A
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - r% k/ y2 A: H# X7 k, f
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : H0 ?- b3 M# J3 c2 h$ `% u! M+ @8 g# ]- V
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , S' d$ `/ ?" r0 g* l" r( ?3 w/ Z% O
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! ?1 D1 F3 B9 u0 F) {# T6 X% g+ G. q' `6 @4 I' _
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 ]2 S9 _3 W5 D$ Z o $ e+ L% s- z0 I: w) F$ R. uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 \, ]7 Y; f4 ~" z1 Q 5 N, D2 b7 I& p$ {* }# [ H$ C+ vThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
