6 R6 d/ H- Y0 D 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 , ]- f/ Y& k( k: B5 _ 3 r) N( k8 r: ? 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& j! O7 E; g. l8 J+ G
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5 Q8 G9 S" \ t9 ]" W
8 Q' S% }5 C! Y 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ! b1 }( D, V( N' p) o5 ]5 @+ t4 w, R 8 C, I* X! [3 R5 ?（责任编辑：杨海洋）. [$ {# Y1 G2 Q1 Y/ M
# @0 a$ g! e+ N5 ?% _2 @Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 0 ^# d) c9 q; B; z# Y5 j' s" x+ b. n0 T1 g, G7 @3 E9 M
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & G' w5 I8 A- t" O% d/ {; Q9 W* {, y! p* @$ ^
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - ]( m5 ]3 R0 q: l# ^4 }9 w ; W+ }' R) i/ [4 tLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) B% J4 g ?1 ^- C" L. a! B, E% D6 R$ a+ Y' X! Z7 K
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * z8 o' q* v) |# ?) ]1 f, [4 G( ?
* [3 h! J% V% q* w6 [! v5 j* JRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 3 o) Y: i2 x! D# o$ x' W
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; J S+ u' x/ {$ v) W! G6 q( K1 c* |$ M
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( F F3 ~( T8 @- r* L1 h6 P5 B# ?# S3 L- S
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 E5 k' N8 q5 V6 v1 F 1 q$ y- |0 e S- uIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 {) {0 U, F; p! _! T6 o' N ( X2 O0 d9 d9 R8 _) F, p: q$ T0 cGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # L ?' J: |* C2 p: A' b- V 4 m7 |* w9 `6 ` I. dThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ^- ]2 A: C7 S4 w x9 T
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % S1 y. Q, ^$ X" A( T' Z+ Z& c4 g( D' O. ~) \
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # i) ?. d1 z9 a9 x9 X% l$ Q8 m/ e
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " |( w$ V: S4 W$ D' |, B" q
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " U% ]: }) }% b( T4 t* Q% v
1 z# d0 b- W+ g+ I"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 O+ B: _. L% m2 E
1 o$ a& Q. K4 Z; \( B' t" {Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / x* g0 ^+ D) R! u# ~ 6 z1 f/ ?; S( o, s/ t' i/ T% XThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
