1 u3 b; k# D; ^" l3 t 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 1 b% X2 [7 v9 d$ z' T+ f2 W4 s 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。6 C" f9 B) ?# H- V; c
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' d, V4 N: [* ~1 s3 |$ h8 ?$ L% P- z3 n （责任编辑：杨海洋） , s. L2 {* |: w" W( D$ h6 H6 Q- g. c2 O* q0 S- O
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 m4 p$ ~6 @' O& M( s: B# |) h+ n5 Z# T
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 y& x) W0 B( |
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( e% k) G( t2 N# m/ d: X% D/ M( d1 U4 x' ]' W6 Z
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; t6 ?" L% W7 b/ q6 n2 K( \
+ I$ t' b6 ^4 ]4 A9 lAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 Z$ ?4 o! ?( k) _, M s
* {8 P" C A8 \Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 V7 w4 R) P1 Z
: H( ~4 v* P/ B# v- Z3 Q& ~) z. g$ |2 a8 lFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 E8 L d7 T# Z: Y, \+ ~0 [5 q& H7 h6 N# ^5 ?* i% l6 \1 H
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 ~- y% v# X$ n9 y. h
" |9 c( g( O0 p1 j7 b3 P"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * u& U: L- i/ F. K; H# D; d+ T. E r' w3 e( _; l' ]
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 M4 ]/ f4 y% e
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 U( W! D/ d% m, W 6 X# V+ k5 u1 ]That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * e9 D, ?; r+ p2 H2 w
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 ^( B' S3 C; Y$ n' f6 x% T1 D) @0 s7 r! s9 j- `) P( m
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 C4 c- w* b x4 y r3 I3 f- j- o, G- a5 ^1 U
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 S9 c+ n+ o9 f7 W q
( t; n) \& K! o" ]/ A0 @) TInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 t1 w1 p8 z' \
5 C# D; f. \& A2 i"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & _) ?; O3 c0 B4 ^: H3 ? ; P5 r, M: J( t |Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # ] ]6 q8 H" g0 {
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
