* L2 r8 i2 |3 t7 ]Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" o' y! D4 `$ V# g: n+ M% n
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 {' R5 i3 O' W ' j. J5 ]) C1 {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' I5 w, k' `5 l3 d. v# A
; T, K1 o- V# U3 p3 ~Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! X: I7 M" n- M4 d9 C" _6 H( B: O4 ?! r4 ^; k" d6 G1 e6 a. O; ?9 j
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( R) {9 r1 g5 S1 i8 U$ R
( _. ~$ j$ p$ b" s& TRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " S! h! u0 H% c( u9 x3 Z( j
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : Y7 X1 u( F* g& [& ^
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ k' V) d/ t9 j, E
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 |2 ?' [7 J& e! Y1 E9 i
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 u. f& L% F' N: B. Z: [2 z! }9 f9 G% F3 ]$ I
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : q/ U* y. x1 H, x% I! c
4 m/ S, R& N+ b5 B/ Z; @That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 {" a% J# k( x) \9 S4 V. z ' _, ~! I( J( @/ @- A- }# j; zUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % ? _- {# A; s' r1 P 4 @) U' d7 c N/ @2 T6 u9 m3 HChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' F0 |$ i8 ^% l2 ^% F) |) h' v" W0 X* T. J l- b, F; Y2 l! q& ^
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % u$ K3 k' e8 V& p9 W+ K( O
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 F# f5 j( i% j7 ^4 \( n5 { 8 {) {4 d; V. ?) |1 A( Q4 Z"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : D- _# [) f# G" [1 I j: f& x4 q2 [2 ]2 Q6 c1 v& d
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + \. n) T$ f3 l( d- W$ z X
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
