外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年0 _ r! \3 P/ t' D8 z1 Z6 E' K5 j9 L
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞# l) J5 L( T0 p% s% t5 B9 O% G' j! K
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。+ ]: d% z' x, X
# d& k( O( |2 ]7 l1 A' C 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。3 |3 j( b6 d) D4 z6 x
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。1 b8 W# L- m- m1 n3 I" j9 Y+ \
. V9 A1 z# I9 X: ?' H2 N" {$ p& d 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。" ?4 m, |$ M% u
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! Y. X$ o3 u+ S$ m
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 O+ p3 M% j7 t. j7 `) R3 T
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / a6 Y+ W, Y+ v s2 ?$ Z$ ~" M- u: @- m* s. Y （责任编辑：杨海洋）9 S& ?5 u. E# E1 T; x4 ]8 }6 o4 Z W
& \) z' e+ i8 O" [Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 b9 ?7 q1 ^# C# C3 z+ M3 d: K( x
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : J& N$ q e" f% p, j: E8 H4 x3 V5 w; S( Z5 K
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. S* z0 Z8 P" g! r2 l% v
( |* l1 v2 k/ Y3 k$ N! y8 ]Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 Q3 S& R/ w5 a8 u
& m8 E) K6 g! P M: LAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; H. X, W* ^2 M- C* R5 X1 S
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 g; B" F: I! m: R6 Q G) Z
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! Z& R6 e, m; L. X
# U) j; X5 S! |; M& x' }2 hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * E$ [; D, _7 B* y ( g3 Z" f# ~( F( c"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 n& f8 }0 d/ L8 w 2 d8 p& N$ G$ L* h" CIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 q4 I; J$ S+ Q) G; l& _/ `1 i4 b: n/ L1 a+ _
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 1 n! X4 a9 d# k, Q: Y) m( Z; ~7 e# Y" R; \
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 B! Q" |: r% g7 W1 r0 K: V7 z% I8 q" h- ?2 v! O" {, S2 A
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 q2 ?. u4 h$ z5 T- R N+ p. {! m 3 w8 y) Q6 a8 {China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - z" m5 u, ? Z* T r6 O7 r# R7 t
" `" ~ t: h4 g* l, o `If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + q2 H0 h& v, m1 e; t0 B L" U7 H6 s
. K* [/ D$ V: a& Q2 q# l8 BInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; F/ r l, |0 o( {: x& T6 \2 i' b5 F8 s. t5 L. e' o/ h
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . O7 H2 u' y- }4 ], L$ M+ m" I4 t/ b* B$ A7 q
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / C' a0 e" l% v2 H
