外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年1 C% r1 [8 Y% }# y2 t/ p4 A
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞9 W5 f8 ]& @+ D. b1 R
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ; @2 g, Y/ T) p3 [; D& m S% e( [. M9 r( k9 W! B) x
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % a/ a6 N2 f9 [5 r" M; A0 ]% P4 V. u' ]
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。% U V* h: r( `7 i5 X) A% |
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。! A- m' V5 D8 T, b+ u: B' `
5 e9 B2 L* O+ I0 ^; i 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 # u$ K. J: f% E; T 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ; d# j7 F" U1 ^/ s! j1 n# p2 e, s, D8 C/ D' }! Q8 P$ I
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / R c! i7 k: K j6 I9 L' t% w, N3 J' x6 ?) W4 S& h1 H4 h$ } （责任编辑：杨海洋） 3 o6 ?1 x/ e+ l: E 9 O" r1 H- ?3 c& PRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters , j4 f7 S4 s% h( y B3 e# d, D 1 l, Z& X4 K& m' b/ S7 g1 v/ dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / p5 f7 s$ A$ p0 D$ j5 x$ D ! k: w- [+ r+ U" ?' T1 |5 W: {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + R6 D; A9 s3 G- M0 R2 i% Q/ u! `+ x7 H0 K* Q3 J. X- K7 i# x
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( L; O3 M( K1 r) t $ `& L! x/ x: j- V9 a( |After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 f: h- w. u" a/ K " O" s0 ^/ Z! ~( i# aRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % ~( x) \8 w8 b) P+ x ! A& l: a' c0 A* T) a! w8 rFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 s9 T" K. E) b) o
! C: j& ~ q. XThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( |' d" ? J# E6 a+ f8 k; A) J6 |& N) V4 @, H4 g$ s
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % ]' f5 w) M s6 @+ }% H 0 ~7 M P1 _7 z! @' l* v% mIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 M0 X$ y- u, S+ L! L1 w/ {
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 1 Z7 b. Y7 U/ y0 ?. v, J. W2 c
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / {* Y! B5 C" s$ D" J+ z+ p3 U+ \1 G5 H
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % A: j! u! N5 C! D! x" d
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 W( ~' ^, t4 l) G. F
6 F |/ W! w& N) x- r" y: p0 W& h+ H, V1 gIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ r; }) W( N5 R9 q9 A! s; F. h4 _" B2 U* O
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 n0 p M; E \
4 b* W0 [4 Z2 O/ ?3 k"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 X; `& ~& n2 p* ^: G& f( p- R* g2 Z- m1 S
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - Q3 f# y& H3 U: X7 {2 k) {" a' Y. F9 w: Q3 W
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
