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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 U& x. H& M! S5 T8 c4 L8 U9 ^: U9 o' u3 @! b) C8 J
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + r% J k1 g5 B/ c% n& T' a8 I+ D1 r$ ~. ]% Q! {5 i: T. f
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 q' b; g9 l, x" c+ ], \# q! r2 j Y$ d, W% y4 r! p m: I
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ `- d) @, _( [" W
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # [. `' D9 E& F+ {! F: K! Z# I / ?8 V2 `: m: I7 I# l0 XRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! @3 v# Y) m; r
' p" _) s) \) o1 OFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 P4 a9 ?* E* b+ H" D' d; s& O; V5 P% A5 f8 N2 h' R8 y- x0 U
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 }5 R5 S# y% M: o$ C$ f4 f& N. K3 Y) H3 x Q; L- j
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 }8 W- R( i9 B' Q, H+ ] i2 o 6 i0 `7 e4 T3 @2 J9 j' fIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 x& F/ U- d8 x# T i+ H$ L, r
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) D9 P, r. K# a9 M% |0 q
" j! |* h4 o$ r9 T2 JThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " b j0 x8 }) b: [
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 d$ q7 j3 h) p: ]- i! }6 }8 G ! W5 O& l3 Y/ MChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 K% ^2 D- t3 s6 `( D; R( V
, p3 s9 a+ L: j+ cIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( D# w' f! ~& S6 V* x/ o8 f
: Q& @& N' m0 |' O. ^5 R# G- D6 G! SInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) X' U( D' m, Z( E8 l4 s8 `/ Z( u/ ~9 a, S" Y
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 Z6 v8 @( X+ X L; X9 J9 ]& M- U- e: j6 T
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & v% |+ x0 W8 I8 d8 Q* \/ j: O% n 4 c% N5 w4 a% F* k8 j# L8 K7 E8 BThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
