: K3 n) p0 B6 G$ |4 z 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 x! l; l& u1 |' e6 ^/ s $ ~4 ^# @3 {! z% K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 6 c7 v+ @0 S9 O) x( e$ D: g ' I! k1 B* m- w 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。# I% G1 H o0 A' b/ `6 |% }
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。. e# s+ {% N0 J! z! x% v
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: A0 I. K, Q" G, \5 x" z6 V
/ J+ B2 C* T/ @) w2 V（责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 ?0 X& R$ v1 e, W 9 W2 l4 s/ g T+ n2 H, tRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters p8 P1 S. v- M" H3 b' H1 s1 f % }* e8 P4 r$ x4 z# vBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # {+ i$ |3 r7 x2 V3 c; a& t/ R( Z9 v
+ n- x' R( F8 A2 o! q6 f8 j+ YA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ?/ V/ D* F4 i" r! |
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. {0 R7 Q6 F! ?
& ?+ o. O3 _3 b9 qAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 J# n$ |5 J$ i6 z4 ]4 ?6 w # ~8 }. Q- s7 I# S$ t7 Z. [Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " {9 |6 D$ o# q( W4 |8 X; B9 W" B/ s' @0 i b" M
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 |1 e+ J$ P D
0 s. r9 X; P/ fThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 E$ h Y! M \1 B8 I( S2 J# G; c, c/ Q' U+ a
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! P, a2 O# c* Y, f
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ i' O6 c `9 B1 d! b! R4 A & t" S8 B% g g4 L$ nGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 b' q' g: a' W7 y# ^( [. j7 A. R9 W4 N+ g- X$ u( _
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 O: p% ]4 v9 j _
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * f4 L# g8 P& d Q
( `4 H* C4 e" _1 q/ E5 l/ h- ^China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + M0 L3 v, }; w9 c9 x' Q% E7 W7 b
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 u% ^6 [6 w/ I$ o Z; u! |" z- q: ?
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 p& N8 k) ]# t3 J e x1 S: K* n
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 [( J0 y8 c% G3 x4 R% U& p. G8 s3 P7 a" l9 C
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - Z* X$ H' ~) @ S0 T# Y2 [# m' a , |& {; \! A9 pThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
