" y: {5 d+ R+ v! u* d' X中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ( C# e( e! L _' f. @& c; y+ x2 l: I9 I9 S
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 D/ Q9 @9 r, ^3 [$ E! {7 a+ M0 K" u7 Q% Z4 i$ F- c) a T' X7 F
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。, r! e# G L# c/ A0 z
# }4 y, R& \! g0 U8 Q5 N 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ _( K5 Z8 m2 E& u: \ [
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! g! ?5 k; s: J7 X2 T
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。' V2 r! ^1 B, m) x
7 U# l$ H% ^4 T' C/ U 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! r: e3 m5 i4 y/ [: z
0 W( t' x5 y* p- \+ l1 o/ `（责任编辑：杨海洋）* D% B6 E4 |$ W2 Q, m
7 Z5 [5 e/ O0 O8 M G/ L( eRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters + p& w' F7 g1 J7 d3 w$ i6 F' F( Y- d5 ]/ K% _4 Z
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 \5 T8 c6 ]+ @6 I0 a6 T* B' j$ o6 B6 s
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( ^9 w z* e: V8 }' [) T6 R5 w6 L5 J5 [8 z# V. j
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! M/ G: P! D O( G 3 A0 [0 N7 M; D7 J1 n$ `After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! E4 ~4 K; F U' d( p 6 g l& l F/ m$ W) yRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ @7 Z" [2 e' a+ |
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 D3 c, i& v$ q; {8 r% ]: n& ?6 D9 \
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & J J8 e2 J5 c( `8 n
?/ I4 X7 S2 [: @: d" y"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & d' G2 y2 C7 i% n! i2 Z
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . n7 |& {) p- P
8 y/ {5 t+ ?" qGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % f$ Y5 O; ~: \; H$ B1 n$ k4 B" V
; Z. e: u" {- Q! f& b4 T" {That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . n& O( b" p# B" p7 A/ E* S
) B# B" O' ?" N5 D$ k) Y0 yUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 G3 E: A* J- O5 H: ]" E+ b% A/ Y
9 Q3 y6 v8 [5 ^/ X# FChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ _& ~& h* h8 I4 H! e
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 I: M+ I' D6 n! W0 |) q. ^( f5 R) n# p6 J# T* K; }" h; ?
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " u; k) Z: Z# j" k
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , R# ~+ X G& U/ o. S 8 c4 q$ v0 N8 x! [5 M! F5 TGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , p1 c0 L7 i* X, D; w- y. U/ D
