外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 # c5 ?- s% t8 a' C+ e. n2 L2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ! ]" T; _% W! S7 ~ $ w1 r. b* r2 K7 A1 } + m4 I: I: W' A7 R) c中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 & d& u/ A/ v: r/ `0 [" {# C S & B) r0 {$ l0 a3 M" s% V9 d" K, m6 B6 X 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。+ }% y. J. {7 j& I$ X) p& G
+ E" h, S/ s& ~: h
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' d, u) S+ D2 _* a$ g0 H- e ' b' K# I8 m# \7 Q 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 + K3 }2 G) s }$ ? 4 I& u5 S |9 L% V' D6 e1 F: Q( z! T 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' u W3 x8 J! ? 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。& b$ @" {7 r2 n% k+ P
1 N7 l/ A4 p3 \! N
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。& U2 c! u; I! ?1 G" @5 e( k
) V! U! V0 e+ S Y （责任编辑：杨海洋） + n' z1 W* _/ G" W: i$ _# g" B9 F1 t* B) v & u G% b* D+ W8 z1 `Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters+ S- k( W# |7 s/ P, X3 P3 G
: S; f3 ~) X/ w" O5 WBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ b8 S! I; n: K% M/ {/ {( n6 i 6 u( G6 F- J; r1 S" P) |A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 s3 r' ^' ~4 z* D " k9 R! K6 S o @( H- ELet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " o# H3 [& `$ U( y2 M# P( v- g. i0 \7 O% e; V- n
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / t& B& A* s" f8 H" \6 P) E0 j
. {2 v* d% z2 K5 L1 {/ ^* l& d
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( q& X, C7 n: z* X, \/ G3 x2 p6 W* Y
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * ^* v6 ~2 k2 ] ]8 N3 ^; G $ p$ v. b2 ~) c" P+ e7 oThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 `8 ~" E1 p: H2 z9 @
$ |0 o7 z/ V* j2 n( _" W B# b
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! L8 k$ @/ l8 o. P# V , e( W0 ]8 V/ N$ x' Z& M0 B% NIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # c( q; Q& _- N# V6 G5 Q& J$ p6 {" b& Q1 J- A7 n
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. q+ j+ d2 t4 q& I8 T# b0 q5 D7 r [ @& C
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + j- r0 H! O3 X# G# k4 Z0 m ]% q7 Q& J
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 w& h0 x# z4 e( n% g) D4 F! p0 A9 t2 q$ |" U" S; E9 W
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". f3 t" }" I' n/ k1 I6 {7 E9 d9 g( @2 \
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 b7 i9 c" a% p3 G3 |: Q' f* |7 _9 z4 r/ g2 E0 I$ W$ F+ q
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + K# y$ w. B/ X' H% l; v0 A/ t( d1 Y
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 B/ C$ ]# D; W0 g* g+ t: K# T2 C% C" m* s3 M8 e' `1 Q
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * z' Q" q& s" E) `7 Y9 T; g4 `, F8 v7 P" Q$ T# Z
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
