外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 " F1 s7 D" n5 ^3 ]- A2 G0 t9 ]2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 4 T* D2 j9 f/ D- s 4 Z( B" h K5 [" Y 3 z! D8 T: o+ s4 r中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ; |& q8 N! X6 u9 I, W& e0 D 0 y8 D. c7 T+ o: Y. E 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。8 P, T. V! W8 J/ \2 t
3 W K5 j# P1 x) ~, m
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。5 q- p- S0 G3 ?4 m* ]4 l5 A$ C
* [5 J7 }4 V$ x/ T7 o' o1 ?# ~9 Z* ~ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ; i) u, ?+ u4 D % Z5 o, W$ Z* |; l% _ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, ~; W( a& c; J% r
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 / O0 |/ E* q$ Z% p ) J7 ?5 J. a- b9 I6 n) P7 L9 g" \ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ( g) c# r: c/ r! \. m) Y% G/ f5 y* h （责任编辑：杨海洋） ) t& g) [" s6 f+ w! C 3 V9 m2 a% J9 e2 I# U3 \Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 L. k' E* }9 F( j6 L8 y
+ g- r) |9 `6 |' R& l
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : O! d8 T& |% g 0 A9 o9 O( `9 X8 \( o3 O& s$ yA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; F" t; k6 V/ ^
1 u% ]0 k2 p7 D2 i$ D7 MLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : p7 F8 \. o8 L3 _( s" v- r6 z4 A( O9 }7 D" K( J/ `
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. - M7 }" d% V- D* K 9 G+ g. V: d" N h" |3 p* A" [Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ Q7 O4 h) ~) V
" E" e. |9 s/ b. Q8 BFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " D5 ^4 H; m/ O9 v2 H3 l; x3 u
0 w# w) a- U$ v# SThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 A5 a5 S' d; W, z' y ; H4 T5 |$ N6 H- {0 e W"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 j! u I! _( v6 \! I& I: J+ w: k/ o, {* I# \
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 D0 F! _% T/ H# @ V
8 L8 e B$ \; A6 x2 H0 h
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : e1 x5 `3 I3 M; G) g: F/ G- c9 J7 ~1 P3 ?5 k) y9 f6 D/ ~
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 U6 s9 j$ _* E" T4 G2 u
4 f. d+ ^% q; {" X9 [
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % g0 I7 F: A0 m }+ q2 M: w
; d$ q, Y/ P3 Q3 u8 j6 p, h) RChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % ]: k. W5 U# j1 o) ~
' f( V; X% }5 n1 j* KIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 _4 P+ G" i1 M. q1 I6 p% Y" ` 6 ]5 j8 n# ^! y5 \( wInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 u) J! B- k x5 N! b8 _( W7 i' Z' _0 r4 A, v, U" y1 R- N, _
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. M2 a% f7 @/ J) x+ a/ o3 ~1 A! Z
3 y7 y A. C) Q) B {. H2 A
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 o! X7 T2 w& F
