外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年9 E; ~% Z# H( V
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 5 C6 i. A# N5 E% |* l! R& l- T: \& w/ Y, z! |
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。" ~$ z( j/ K: c% L1 E" m) @
& M2 L: O! o4 P6 n" k2 Z: |0 V 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 9 f. a6 v9 z2 {( k0 Y2 t - @5 W& @: `) M. |) U 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 O% U& a/ j) Q+ `7 X' |# g2 E W 7 i6 N" V1 X7 |$ Q, h5 M j 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 f% x/ ^- t$ ~, c
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 N& ?" } U( [$ r- k# [1 i 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。: w+ E E5 f2 |6 C
. U% d4 Z5 U% m$ W 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。/ }6 _) A+ y. f) ?2 F5 O( `
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4 G, s, ]/ F2 t f! {Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. R# G. V, K( K4 q/ _& I+ ]
( {+ _8 h; \0 ~BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' F2 v5 H/ n" m/ h8 q6 `% ~" u- t* [3 T
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 y o, I( m: M, ?2 f5 h: e! d& j
: i: g7 l- u, U. F/ H- S: c1 {& lLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 g1 {+ E3 p$ `
0 e( |- f0 G5 h4 ?2 NAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; Y8 r% U" ~( |5 L( b7 G1 G. H
% R0 `+ k H7 f9 P ORoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 c8 @7 u7 w: ?6 \ # E9 M5 x7 ` H5 T+ pFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; _* W1 i4 H. O* F! n5 x
" o& W- _, }9 i* xThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % e& z" h* y2 p& g; i / f! v/ Z8 }" r8 P"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * y1 u; h$ d8 I3 E
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + t$ r3 u E6 b! ~8 L* w- f 6 C0 \6 C3 V) \$ c; _7 DGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : D. P' u0 @2 L2 M: W0 G- A 4 n; d" J. U: M- Q* vThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " \( _0 g% d, e( B( f: Y7 d7 B8 c1 s+ u9 @; B; z
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 O# Q1 ]0 h/ H" R% l6 f1 n7 l3 Q4 S$ A
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 ^' }5 W# q9 _8 I $ r( Z5 Z; T# y+ h0 Z7 ^, P) fIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + z: Q' Z+ Y6 b( m, t( Y( R* @9 x
0 ~ Y0 K% n, h! k3 z. UInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! t: `7 i- l+ K- ?9 g/ [
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) Q. p9 ^6 P7 [! B , Z0 W3 |; ]- L$ uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. $ c( [5 y2 \* X% M* T, W: s
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
