+ ^1 I4 U Y; Q% z! Q& H. ~5 z6 F$ E 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。+ s0 m6 i* W$ f9 Z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。+ U+ g/ x; f- Z! E
) K; I3 n/ H9 L' H( k3 m. [ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + u2 ~* r$ m9 y* H2 t6 _# g' E/ C, r7 p! L x" Y3 y" i （责任编辑：杨海洋） ) \9 x: }; o1 i# W- W0 h5 ~" I/ x" X# Q9 v) u5 h9 Z
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : Q' P4 p/ ~+ P9 x# j* i- [* H1 N! L5 P7 p$ e: m8 M
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( ~. l( G# Z0 G1 l
* @; t9 Z+ f: s. N, U# IA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 r( r8 E! T" l- b$ ~1 A6 A+ \ n2 w6 S, j, t/ o0 n
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . ]# e; _) j$ h+ v
1 `; h$ i0 d: Z: ?' d& BAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " V; ~" Z/ r r 8 W: w: D" s7 c+ k* P4 b! H$ v! eRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # D; o; c5 D4 I4 x7 S0 k' E
2 p, @# [1 W1 \$ ~) D: {1 |; T$ OFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 ]1 k+ C: v5 W' P" h- m$ m ' }& K! g" _, c" _& a mThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - v" x2 g4 v5 _/ ]5 _; ^6 m
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) |8 K* N% [; g; L8 H 6 _4 ~1 @ Q/ i9 p2 YIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! y) ^- ~. k9 z% G
& N, m' w6 x! I7 e+ v( I# IGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / t% s: L- X) d j, B2 Q9 H8 _' O6 o) f |
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 u) @0 O) R+ T0 \& p% x# t
* x2 v# Q7 `! D1 M: ~Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & ]* J! }1 s- z" Y' g E0 \, k
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 S6 W) Z [# D6 o7 G' a& |- k2 O' s5 j6 `3 h% {
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. - X9 i$ r* b( t, Y/ M ' `! ] Q0 b' Z& `International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % {( p7 i& ]( _$ o5 q( H1 y
, w+ `/ T3 [; u$ m, P6 O& ["Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 v$ r. G6 Q2 _* X" t. ?
: N/ t7 I( q8 q0 P! lGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " ]$ ~2 } C- y+ u
