外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年! M! u& W" m' }3 d2 h
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞* n% y: E; |. q8 m
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1 M- b$ M- n9 h9 x中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 6 S' U8 f6 a9 m7 L) z ' J1 W8 N% l3 s6 I2 {) s& j6 H 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。6 n: d$ r8 ]; M) G
9 S% q6 x/ Y9 c9 j8 i3 _$ A 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & L) M& h _! g% B4 a/ ^) W3 O: D# n K5 ^# m
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。8 Q/ s7 ^* t1 \; B4 z
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。4 R6 n8 |( g+ e
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。; M4 A4 F/ G7 c& _' ?# s2 b4 ?: v* W
, y3 Z4 T" X8 z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。; L' ~7 g' Q. k* E' ~1 \ G
8 r$ a" c# O7 h0 Q* u& u, ~9 ` （责任编辑：杨海洋）/ v7 ]$ J/ q% G% P+ j% b
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 {/ i- @: L( M" D
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 Z8 Q# r+ Q" t* C4 b# V3 q1 L' u* o9 J' M
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 y, k/ U) }6 E! y0 h2 l
* E9 M% L8 y+ Q! FLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; A- X" z' m) N6 |$ s) r, T # U) j& ^ T/ A, O4 D/ g! P- c) qAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 O0 o2 e& [, ^6 I8 w% Q6 R1 |- }# ?1 k
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % }4 R6 l) r4 r/ e# j6 I, @ P. z) |) m. X- V1 r6 V: e
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 b0 K( ]' w' }7 `, o' ~5 `! P5 G+ m: b- h6 w+ x
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - L" ?" W. q0 g, R }; h+ L) r& d- N" n8 ~"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / ^ h# i% g. [* q# v; c9 v
9 _# r+ N! e1 lIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' }" s3 R7 D" r0 \3 { 3 i, r) Q( A. J2 j6 {+ hGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! j8 j% T4 Q7 ]/ [
$ w0 Y9 Z, V( e8 j( UThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - W' ?( z4 l$ m6 t* V: P' \' F5 P" F1 q. O" Y5 p" {
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 \" P9 H- Z8 h# I2 p/ v. q2 E
/ E, z% x) u1 s" T+ dChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; f. P, l+ W+ w7 r+ ~
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; }( E9 h) x0 U, \& v# { 6 Q; K' L1 K3 n: j1 I3 X$ ?$ X0 U/ F% LInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' P; Y* U) E/ K( y: ^ t& F
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 y3 M8 D$ a$ J4 i
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % D3 h; L. ]% H" _. w, n ( }) ~1 b* \1 S0 d0 h1 K, g1 nThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
