外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年' @8 I$ |; \; b& T9 p& E
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞0 X, {, i D! p; ]: T4 s9 K5 B
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 a/ e% Y. ?; w: ` f/ j+ r 7 U% n+ T7 x3 X7 ^ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 $ I6 B* b1 q. K$ U+ ?& s ; a+ g2 ~5 ~5 f1 W) q! }, E 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。0 D% X: u5 e2 U% N
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( W' X5 n- R5 t, d+ |1 h" Q) x9 _
_: O, U d3 l, P* ]7 ? 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。$ w: e* ^3 D4 r4 Z3 R( O% {
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ( n/ |( o+ \" a* Y) m! R 2 w Q+ [% f' D9 v: M) c 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ c1 N) f9 I( V# x6 E& H! O
9 y4 D9 ^) S8 A/ i（责任编辑：杨海洋）1 N( A9 A1 u2 l5 Z- g
% `+ P5 d2 F; F: [! J$ P# cRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters$ Y) V, ]! B/ J5 W
% w3 R5 Y$ [+ qBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . W- z0 a0 n9 t4 }7 V
6 K. o6 k7 M, G! K) KA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' y+ B- A& }9 H" h4 X
" _) a$ T( {! }/ x6 O& QLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 i& |/ m4 Q2 h/ h9 ^+ }" x9 G ' \+ @( c9 C+ W: t+ ^2 r' L; SAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 M6 }' i$ n2 P/ q
0 ^# T% [. m% PRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) R; p. z6 x. O4 a- |. a( \
! x. E# w0 X/ D, M& g# b" \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. & x M2 k8 v2 Z& P & ?: h3 ?* C- q0 n" I+ aThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 Y) ^4 O/ q* I) {( k3 K5 ~
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 X6 C2 s" n9 |8 z$ e9 M& }/ F* d% Q2 @% g
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 W# o/ f4 o8 l0 h4 C* H" O0 E1 m
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. o% g9 r1 j3 Q4 f0 m 0 Q1 B; v/ [* `4 dThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " T3 F; D9 P4 f9 j0 u3 G+ Y2 K$ M9 d- G6 w i0 t( k
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( V/ w1 W& y( L # N( _3 G" f3 I9 Y# z: a) pChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 F' T- C. ^' ]$ T$ @/ u
' [0 X! y3 L; \- F8 x6 @If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 ~6 h$ e# M V5 T& p9 N* f9 k: A ; J6 g. ?8 V8 M0 h2 B( R% ZInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % c& q1 l6 x' r- O W4 I9 n+ v/ R0 F. ~6 k! l! a8 {/ ]
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( F( ?4 R# a% b8 A; h * ~2 Z4 u3 u" u T) v- h" RGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + G+ o5 L# f7 }$ X, Z% f6 e3 s, A$ I. c# V
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
