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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ; v3 W$ x% i- J' s% Z t( {" W7 `( \0 s6 e6 f ^
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # b8 x* L" ]/ g1 y. F* Y+ v ; G% e- i( W4 y/ v( R1 Q) f5 z 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 A* `9 {! h5 ^% p9 _" W( j . b8 q" o9 d; f 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' k+ g. ~% J0 U0 F5 c+ A! A; t: y; C4 Q$ H- f% x
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 : u" k9 C+ [; r5 J 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。8 i8 i2 i% i# f: r# B1 c& o% X- x
" j! @; k6 c8 H9 M1 E- W9 X% ^3 q: t 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。9 F) b2 x* E, X; b: I/ t
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( R" m. Y0 ]# \
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ U4 h) b* I: j6 p; M; g0 U
% u3 A4 E m7 x3 T6 X& HA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 W. t6 M2 o3 t! I' D3 Q4 P0 s
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! L4 ~8 W; ?: z9 e. h
1 \" ?2 f) o( E i& ~After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ Y6 U* y- }& H9 j; W " r* S- E" f6 j; ~6 A% b: a7 J1 b! `Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 H! n: i* m) F( m' f4 U, C- f! t9 A3 N
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : M8 F; N! r2 ^9 f$ K2 F6 o0 F( r
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * r: Q% B5 R @* j2 U# \6 t$ _ * `+ A. R1 }; Z1 L8 w) X3 R"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : R) ?3 n* x2 F$ Y; u' L m3 K- E" S/ H3 z8 `1 R
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : e# J; v* B$ i" l3 s
. [1 x1 k9 K7 WGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & V3 O( @8 H' A! e% x1 S 7 N3 J! }/ w3 gThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 V4 \; f4 a( ~3 a% L: v: h5 c + c4 ?# N9 T4 C- HUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . K- T( O" }0 |/ f/ @2 L
8 [! }5 ^, v" pChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , a8 p1 R4 |* r. l& q
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; M# m* e% b. k$ J) B& d: u. {9 E! y7 Q- g$ y
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 \ z; K# O4 N* r0 h( d& p
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " p( o9 I* C; p2 _
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 @* {# W! U1 V+ S3 E- c ; v" W* L# H7 fThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
