3 j0 M+ V3 y) x0 E J8 |* |4 C! U5 m中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 e9 m( L0 }) d* a4 r+ Y' t" _4 f$ c+ t& g( b/ a' u
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。( R4 O8 w3 p1 W2 G
7 _' A6 i+ q& Q, E. a 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 " Q4 C3 K, @7 Z- }" J0 y9 a( F) Z; c p0 b o" H* N0 c) L
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 0 i% x- Q7 ]/ e( X1 v6 J . x, c9 o8 j% C. X+ I 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。- u% t; g, T K$ D' W% H3 ^5 S
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。6 w R* {/ W9 ]$ x( G& n
6 g9 t. k1 Y+ X$ C9 Z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! E$ X! B/ L6 ?; q, \7 g
: j" t3 [# D$ V* a( d: }! e（责任编辑：杨海洋） 8 I- a5 z; t6 f. d1 g( ? & g. M( k; y% ?' W% b( @0 m" GRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 U1 ]$ f5 A! Z X' w$ _ X7 d/ Z. V1 ?
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & ]3 }$ ~4 b5 |6 V) @ m p
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 t+ \: x8 y5 j
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 w3 u, Z7 `" J" G! H6 ^" z. w' j5 p/ r# h' p
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " Y4 O/ K: y2 \9 l" ^
0 Z w" i3 w( {Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / A& O' x$ Y4 {* T5 k+ c7 Z
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( `8 n1 M$ `7 z& E: m
2 k$ U( \; F/ J# F: QThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * x' g0 W% l* [+ ]5 t( U6 R
% }+ D% r1 \& z: A m5 E"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & Z; ^) z# F6 Z9 G+ z% G0 R* ]! w 2 e; h/ L* O& p" _) ?5 h9 xIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , T7 e3 F: A9 f
4 j: G. I3 O% z( y; c% xGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' w7 Y% R; V9 G9 Z4 z* i
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # h. f. T; I* S, X$ j2 W3 K
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) O$ D7 z- c @% h) _+ o/ d- I: U
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 w$ z, s5 Q& S, l! K/ Z: K0 ^( ^! v3 p. {: C+ c: k- Y
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % b2 c3 U" x6 b1 b0 o0 H
6 U8 m/ Z- d- K( L, M0 lInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . D5 y2 Y9 A% Z, w* l9 [
; R. P9 q0 i; ~3 P2 A" X6 K- W"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % k7 H6 _( J% k! R, ?$ i8 j" f" F6 Y7 O! D0 W7 ~" K
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 v8 f A, Z1 V& m) W' T7 B7 ?/ q+ Z7 `
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
