外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年* W6 Y2 H v) r0 G- H; N8 ^( P
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞3 i L* C& `5 b. \( A; a
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 0 p$ n' t3 _+ @- s D$ ~4 ^0 \" g, J2 d7 k3 {
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 T0 }0 Y+ ^( R* p6 P : ]& ]" v: W' M; O4 t 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 1 N# F- [7 D- R5 I% h3 c5 \( p) a# F 0 j$ p% m" G! Y8 u6 G 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) u: r, v7 F' A0 J8 U9 @3 G Z! _" _; M% u% ^; _1 L% L1 R9 h 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ N2 S7 G2 ]( O6 B6 M5 D 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 # }* {) V. B* k) g" ?$ h/ B6 Q' [ c: u! F5 A2 f- K |
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : H, q$ `0 u6 b7 o" x/ T$ J+ Z, v' l7 C2 [/ t （责任编辑：杨海洋）5 {. P, C* x: U4 k% D6 ~6 K- D
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters . w: Q# @, @/ I+ a6 [. l% D0 A/ x% c( \" W! u
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) F5 Q- K, _1 z M1 R- n : B7 v- H6 u: J( eA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 J9 G6 t8 [* j0 D8 ]* [( e 4 @. C8 O& n7 x* qLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 l+ C- Q, I) H
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 ^% _% o8 n B! `1 ]5 i0 e # U4 T+ x! t" x0 l7 W% lRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / X8 ?2 h$ N" @( T
. h' j9 G5 W pFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 H5 |9 q9 {& E' J; L! {
' }$ A8 n) N: ]# k! }6 A8 q" q# VThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 [+ P2 {. p3 e- T6 }( H8 w4 r ) C' J# i$ [; g8 A8 M* C O, P"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 L! v; r* d% `+ n# R , \5 u. S! U; VIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 Y9 C5 v( w" g5 F+ R
. f9 m& ^) d6 }" C5 [. M: c. GGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 b4 V0 m% B' [" ] . f" W' n( ~% OThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * {4 ~# T- p* H \7 w4 ^
5 X6 q+ W8 h1 P" zUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / D/ m( x' m" x" I# A# [6 W
e. }2 E5 s4 [China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . N. D; g f# V& S6 o% _( l" g# T4 p( o2 ]" i
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 p) b- C( s% T- e6 Q: I- u4 K+ }: O; Z7 f
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) ^. H7 J& u- M( ^# ?) i Q / b4 E$ ^" O ~% i2 u2 b* ^, L0 \, m! O"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 |) f/ M' N( B2 P9 |
3 e) Y f. T* Y. O7 Z* XGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 h3 H0 O' J) O , `( ]; q i2 y+ l! tThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
