外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年( \/ j$ a; e4 M! |
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞; X4 g+ X T5 v3 M8 M. S
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3 @( T. T _, y$ |- e# @中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 / n# P( l( V+ g! f# C) s4 A1 L5 c( m - v$ V0 G; o+ n% v9 z' B 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # B0 L2 _4 \3 h! S7 y5 I! M' r% W1 C) X 3 m9 ?. J; a0 k* x8 X# X" z j! d 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。1 q1 r- h- h1 m6 Z" B
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 p7 B8 S8 Z% b5 `% o! p* m% d9 S
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 @3 Y2 R1 A0 a
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 " t' Q: ?, K" I, I 7 W9 \* |& T/ h# K 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + U( ?( |+ E1 a" ?) r a5 l9 T! _. O( s) [( Q! f （责任编辑：杨海洋）, ^3 C: a# A! `- o6 O* K+ w8 m
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters " G/ ]" B7 M, X. U, S7 U9 Q ! g9 Q- }0 Q9 tBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 Y6 N5 X( W# }' N- b1 C$ K
9 k% ?5 s! N3 F- J' a k9 `5 f/ cA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + c, R( h l; X# X; ]- K) m' G
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : ?0 Y1 G+ t: t& n; P1 `+ e
; T* @1 I' {2 Q$ A% d7 u9 H8 BAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 Y# j8 U4 j) \+ I2 A
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . B/ Z2 C! B) ]( J* y
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 H: J6 H4 V2 f* q: q6 @; j3 R# F
! M$ Y# t! c f% v( P+ v+ Y0 ?7 q$ zThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / l% {: f. ?1 S) g- n . c7 J! i& ^: W! P$ f, r( S"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & n5 `3 F0 u: ^7 |' L8 } ' J# s& z: h# K4 i; v) y3 L6 pIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! k0 C6 ?; t$ i8 I; L; W( B# y% i* j( R2 ]4 p l; K7 H
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 {+ Q) p- p, I
" c2 d9 \% g8 XThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 I& _' o6 U2 a
' g; O0 j- h( c Q/ DUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 B% {# I/ u3 g0 E- g/ E; Y) I
~ z! k: Y. G( `' _8 z$ d5 |/ m' }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! v7 f% ~4 e Q7 \& O; O
% u* }* c0 U2 e/ w" M% EIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 F2 r' e$ Y) S" i( x2 n) L- Q# e& p6 d" o0 A1 ?2 M! Q
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : u9 ?% u9 R( f2 U% O
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + Z* C- Z3 Y$ v0 P: v) W+ r3 {
! S4 {6 w& c) wGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % u* }6 k7 w, }% Z# p
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
