) s1 u: ^( f! n5 e中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。6 [( W% `& H5 `- K
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 * q" [8 }! m; g+ \3 u1 o 2 W2 \ g5 U4 F. C$ c, }# T' I$ r 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。0 X! h; B0 J4 N" c3 N) _
! Q3 a. g' Q6 y7 J* ] @6 H; p 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ g9 [5 j5 B: ^* r" g
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 3 O$ i. z% B: x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : x4 s! K* S+ F " b" w7 y8 E( ]4 B 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% Z( Z3 V7 A3 y! C7 D
! a" l d4 e8 ?" `5 B( w" P( H& v（责任编辑：杨海洋） E- B% n1 w/ A! L( [ M# |& h' i2 S" t1 E( z
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 |* X9 o8 S0 |: s4 f/ k& s6 l x0 Y3 t5 m0 c) f
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' v6 @7 `$ g) q) `" H6 m5 v. f
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & q9 o* b6 F3 v
7 O6 v! N7 r" z8 ~; M% P. g' n: jLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * _! ?1 T' Y- j3 Y 0 m( w. K9 h: p: v. MAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + w5 C* W& L- n- D
5 K% f3 J7 E4 M% {$ uRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , |+ ]* T& ]$ C, e5 z * A- d4 t1 N- \/ F, ~2 nFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 S6 V L' U" N, J' x5 F
( n! T# `. q5 A- ^6 z+ c- _; ]4 DThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 @% [7 j0 |. @3 X+ a h3 C( @ }' P( W" I"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . z. X% J! _8 V% B
5 V t. D+ x, s- OIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 J3 T A: ?! T. k+ ~5 S; @ ' a2 l- W: r. a+ ~# G* nGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 1 W8 y {! g/ N) L9 R' f$ y* V: P- z" f- r1 z
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 D- |! D% T# F9 E$ z" W' e
9 P2 R0 ~& F) q. |- Y0 W! @Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Y% V" {3 U/ x7 @& ^( o
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 K0 {! [3 i+ s # K" [' L# f7 g8 U: zIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. - N6 X# m$ O$ m% M- v& [2 }5 I
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 n$ p" Q/ p3 A8 y : P3 N6 K/ P, T, c1 {0 z/ s/ D"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & S0 d/ f3 N' j, D4 n' v: Q P0 g. q" q0 f8 M( D( @& h# Y
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 h* Q+ w! J5 y , N; B' D0 E9 B3 _$ iThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
