外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, e1 ?" S7 G0 R0 Y
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞- r5 y# N7 B: r/ c+ }* g
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 9 u" T! V8 e' f; b" @ ) u& g& f1 l# ~9 b( z. c5 o# u: ^ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; j/ g. w7 e: t7 Z( u4 k, {. s, H m! `2 X& x
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 % u' I+ I- b- R6 ]* ]6 I9 a0 m5 z# J5 V! D1 H8 _
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ; k6 \ d9 p3 E9 Q, G5 {" X' f% ^2 X1 p; x; s' V
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 # s0 u) o3 w2 b# S% g) C 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。/ P0 \8 o* C1 k3 h- _
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' l: U: i; p" r2 f8 L: P" F! A
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : y( P% v, c' x/ B+ N0 }, h / [$ N% ]6 Q) X0 f4 B/ f- QBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; [1 m/ W& n; [! T* o( b0 c" U9 r& u; f
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 a4 A9 c+ C" g8 w. ]/ S$ n$ z+ d1 S7 o
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : C( t& F" V0 ~. G4 ~
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * X+ U" _; [$ u0 r. v- i
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & y: S' g# y2 C* ^ ?- K0 h! S* kFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 T7 [, x4 v4 H2 U! ^) z# b) m
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / B+ ~9 L. N* ?8 V H 2 E1 D9 m W, k- J0 k; J"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # ?7 O/ [" e: R. k' { " r3 J+ x& a' A! p/ NIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " n2 q5 o' T/ }) n
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. s$ d; y) v6 q% m) n) }4 O
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 E) z% i$ f& X' W0 |( f0 t! n- W e* m5 z0 w
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - k4 p; z m! M% ]; Y
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " @! r# {- U% `% h. g # x; |( T) ^6 v: G$ s) q! PIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : R2 k% B2 e1 o2 H* {3 E4 w4 m3 V
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . I" D' K& F# M1 g8 ?& u* N7 q- |& v- U
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " B9 U1 a, c7 A! w8 g) ?$ v& [/ b3 t' O0 e) t
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( o# i0 K% z! j
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
