外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年4 X2 Y! R/ a$ J# {+ r) ]* C
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 $ H7 ?* f) F) m9 y; q3 I& l p* G6 O% s% I
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 M1 T. T$ G0 y/ x' X( T3 S9 d ; f5 K" z, M, [! f+ f 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。/ l5 [& v* I) Z; W% {0 Z
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 D* Y ~+ O9 O! ^! }2 c
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # ~' v5 n _+ I: Y% u ) D$ r* N4 ?9 c6 c1 t 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 w0 C" A/ @- i/ y5 ^+ A; f" W 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 2 u0 c, ~+ t, L9 o& n0 u3 S! I) e- K$ Y. V: k% T0 A3 ]
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。) ^% ]/ \: O1 y% X% J6 t: M
) _5 \( u$ S! z# U （责任编辑：杨海洋）7 |7 D3 W8 y# M; X. |! v
9 q$ ^" R& p( |! M2 ARunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters% D: @: N4 S$ |6 \5 ~- A) G
0 Z- Z/ u$ d: VBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. n% `; s0 E" p) z/ d , S: v2 i; G" d; z0 rA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & W2 w+ q( d- H! |5 y$ }. A( ]! d
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # `! ^2 s6 T v : \% ^0 E2 V, HAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % R: D" Q9 f' q# o+ e- R$ b3 C# O8 e- h
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 F! e; s! T: s8 K$ a# [0 `9 o8 X6 P2 w& B9 U7 B1 N, v
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * B1 I: p1 P$ k- n8 C3 t- ^* Y. b) ~! s
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 ^7 ?$ D7 l; P: J/ \( f 9 Q* C+ h$ p7 D" k+ v. R) a: F"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! }. J1 }+ f9 j( e$ B e+ d4 y; \ 3 l$ x- B3 `+ u: rIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : g9 s9 h( S* x0 D' Y
" g8 L! _7 m6 v. U) g- F4 J0 u# UGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; M, x6 m; t. N$ I3 E) m. H# W9 \. E3 J$ ?4 \
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' |; W- Z; q% G S+ G: |" ?) `' E. z9 w9 ~- |$ n9 ]
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ; i! h l8 N4 h% x
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % x% ]) b3 j# h! D4 n, o5 c2 [/ m# a: p' W6 O: v2 [
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + V' o' B- d9 h5 }
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . I8 D& \; R5 a" [
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - _+ I7 w7 K6 M2 Z
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! N9 `4 D7 W2 p4 n; }
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
