( I O" X: x0 r) R! m4 g 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 7 G5 B' t& J. D3 q& _% V" t: t! Y % F, v4 y. |* R: y3 N5 x: S* c. `$ f# y 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。) B0 g: m& x e5 b6 j1 X9 S' w
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 7 \7 c4 H! w; T( y0 E; k$ n4 E' I" r6 s" U' G4 u* k( w( d" V3 H7 c
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 a0 _2 @2 k g" F' B+ Y
9 {" ~( F; [2 _4 F% i （责任编辑：杨海洋）4 @: l* T9 ?! S
6 B! e; u0 y+ A& d* E4 m$ nRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 0 w ~+ _) x: P- K( b( w W+ d( R# g1 s; ^
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % o+ v. F) H/ |3 ~8 @
& H+ B# P" B9 K! }& `1 HA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. m' S+ f1 \6 t0 Q, y0 Z( r: e, K5 O7 A& g' B9 ~+ E
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + `( Q. p, l4 u0 I' ^ ; S, i3 g) f* Y; A1 n+ @After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! Y! x& j7 W4 `2 R/ q+ K" u
* z C' D0 e4 P6 B! \+ |Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ; f$ m8 U. [! w2 C
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # n0 F; C1 I$ U( l/ d" [/ f; W; E5 o& d, h- @) U$ O
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " ^8 g4 L" E& g; I; _3 s( c
* `7 `$ v2 ]+ \0 `"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 C. @+ A' l/ h
/ h4 |% l6 I* p5 jIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + {/ E" y X1 c1 j+ P* `! I+ W0 C2 d- i$ u
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # I% {& d8 Z* v+ s& M/ k" Y9 H9 B" _ e4 V5 h
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 M, s& y, q6 F. H7 Y ' y, E& i4 i; _; F5 b! z8 qUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. y4 O8 r2 Y& e8 c. Q6 c
! P+ t6 `) S3 tChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; b+ ~" R4 d6 t" X0 Z7 G6 L 0 g5 y" E5 ?/ S" z, G: X7 O2 y" O7 yIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 A, N2 K% ?1 b
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " K* U9 E8 R1 _* w5 D2 X, k; }/ Z n3 G/ O/ R* Z/ P) L) w
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! n+ G3 N+ E% N3 j* \0 H( V/ U' w/ d4 a& P, X
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + c' k! s& g' i3 U9 _
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
