7 G5 i8 m7 V' n* K6 | V$ S 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: K! `! S! [* p# a! P
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 S Z5 ^7 o( [2 Y K& @; r4 j
* Z0 F% V2 @* x% q/ ABEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 j4 ?7 w6 W* j8 I- Y. E6 T
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : }" N! E1 t" N5 M. R' B
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . |3 ~$ D8 S5 ^ k( l \& R
/ C5 H6 V9 d9 _" Y7 H2 D# J4 ^After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % u9 D$ z0 a; B! W; Z 6 q2 r8 s7 ]2 [! ]8 A" u2 `Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) Y6 D$ A% a0 b0 x" ]6 O
# e9 F1 |7 Q2 CFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % I' W# B, V9 q- c5 H/ H% [6 {2 r5 n/ C: N) c( [
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ ?, _, a; n: L# d5 |/ K7 G8 ]& X$ B, N- G( u4 Q
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 r G( {' A* e4 |! q' `
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 n" S# D. I7 [9 f2 K5 A% k* P" ]1 S; r S+ v# M0 i* g
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! g) n( J% n) c5 z6 O. @7 P. N4 t: i3 A6 u
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 O9 ?; k% |; [; u( \3 X5 h9 ]
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 ^8 w2 x9 \9 Z5 K0 M5 l9 \/ \0 O; y ' U7 r" n5 F5 X' X, o \# W) BChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & @* W& F2 H$ H. R1 l 0 ]& q6 e5 v: j/ o9 }+ A ^$ GIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ P9 K! }: T$ `
: Z& V, H- _' A( c' q- lInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) X' T6 r' r2 P( J1 h
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # b( i8 x- ?; u8 ]
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % G5 U6 s5 o' O4 `7 Q
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
