外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年' A% H- }8 N3 ?
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞- G |2 B- I- J8 u8 n2 M
9 ^0 ]) U5 o$ k9 Q! g* T" G9 X) Q" m * B( m+ v- x: Y) r0 A! t& O% I中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 5 J( p; l$ M4 z8 A + d4 h$ P2 r# a) j) ?* W3 @ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。" I# m+ F& g. ^! i8 X) O
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ) d/ K7 `7 g% @ 4 i, W3 A7 t& h# l* r7 i% Z 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。9 ^) P4 u% n2 Z6 }! G; r2 g
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, e$ i" L, V& J4 S7 s' @, g. Z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * ~ B s) l+ ]. |! v& c2 x3 Q7 A& q& G6 U0 d+ k; @
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # B! d$ P ? k. C1 u / v; h' S" g3 k0 I9 Q: A5 O I（责任编辑：杨海洋）9 Z8 ?6 w0 N; B9 B/ h2 t
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters # d2 f4 d4 b+ T6 X( Y5 J P5 p- `5 X0 g; c
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 t' X% _, g, u2 P
" a, q; k6 O% G! ?: f/ xA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 7 P' X b- r* J( f' ^& t- X 7 o" {0 Z( t9 ?$ N. Q( L8 b8 l- }4 HLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . Y4 g# a, C( u& c; K
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . R9 O# i/ r" ]4 P) N
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . L' L4 T0 N4 d7 {. p8 q/ O! r1 G- M4 E) o. ?* o
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # Y; Z$ d; I; f$ t0 k' Q- l0 u, @* _/ U/ g: Q5 X
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % F% m+ L! @$ Z7 @; r
+ h9 z8 v) F K+ T& [) ~"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % W; P% L# b* A- Z7 w
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 A: c. R" l6 f* ^8 r$ |
+ P* W1 o: c8 H8 W5 QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( N7 o" W0 Q9 O @
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 q: n( j6 T* d( q8 W ]/ B, V! ~" u* S0 ~
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ Y }* U+ I: q
) Y- [8 a5 d( H& Z$ UChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 |: t& A8 Z# R$ W y/ Z # J4 G6 p$ S+ z( lIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 B5 J5 C8 z0 @# O/ m9 D$ h4 q, t
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * V, G8 \7 P y
2 v1 {: }$ c, E, S; s6 g: l6 @"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . G; q3 \' S/ _9 h2 p. h* Z; ]6 d, \8 w) f
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 d5 ?* e" @& ~1 r' {: k C. W& ?: P6 u6 t: @# z1 {9 t' B
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
