外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ( H* W. G, q0 i1 g) L- f2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 * K, C9 T' E# A) n o$ d- I! X% o: r$ F6 E+ U " ?. v H, a. t/ T+ a5 O y中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 - B7 K* Z9 G6 U3 }* F* A3 m9 P8 l- W$ Q6 u z# Z, J8 k
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " N) N4 C3 L+ m/ ] 5 B4 M2 m& Y6 }$ h5 D 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。8 }/ g# I' Y7 t
5 N% Y8 U0 S0 n 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。+ g/ z& |+ d7 m% I0 a3 U3 N# l
6 {, ^$ G7 j# A, w: r4 _ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。8 P) W% Z4 L. D2 {6 B L
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : b% V/ i+ G; ]" ]. \5 D. f + ]; X8 T0 Y3 o# N [% Y9 l. ` 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * g% S7 ^; |, u: M9 C! t' H- p4 { ( S2 C# m9 I5 W* v) G9 l. q, `（责任编辑：杨海洋）: s4 G8 Z& r3 e& B- h
- `( V5 F8 y5 {- @Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& ^/ T. u) y: z/ ^3 c
n1 y& m6 g U2 s/ A' S- r" bBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 t E1 |6 ] _5 d/ [ O; t; C: R4 \6 F7 gA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , A; l: S. L7 {+ K' T, l/ ]: S' X r9 m3 [3 R$ i
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ x; L) K- j* B3 V0 v: n" C/ [+ b
3 g+ k: e: L A: S: k, |After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ _( n2 G, g. a3 Q# U4 z5 u* R7 e5 d _- o) Y9 t% l
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ u. Z6 Q7 a6 N# H! U: Q
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 ~! d% e4 s0 t2 g# F2 V
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 U# G3 t6 L K& F' @$ a
+ k2 C3 N8 a& H' ]2 d: V"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ W P/ b; [+ H/ d) v4 U1 o/ C' J7 \$ A( C
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - E/ Y% N' l/ J9 s0 w% {' u2 H5 }' I' ^) X
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 N1 L5 \6 x8 {: f* l7 n; ~3 ^4 |4 ^, N& a3 j! l
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 h9 }$ }2 @0 K
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! Y" S2 \8 t) ]; J3 X0 i - s3 J7 N* \" l+ j3 N i6 b# mChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - [3 S {/ H2 m- m$ R0 Y0 U * w7 _/ K- N$ X& v( }If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 K* e6 V9 F* U# u5 e* z+ [! t3 [2 F 7 t* T$ G0 C: r8 Y2 i$ @International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. m4 k( k7 M) U3 N% Q( k
0 W, x' [: S4 V"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 H2 a8 J5 }1 F. c* N: n, r( u% A4 p3 Q$ H. P2 ]
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. V; Q2 ]2 ]4 V' }6 ^9 M& Z
% L2 } c6 t3 i4 o6 ZThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
