外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ; d( e/ ~. e1 g, _2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 $ S8 z0 D0 \1 x$ T! Y8 E4 N 5 h. v, m& p M% ^ f& E) w7 a4 S) f ; L" Z$ O& ]' B中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 7 [0 a+ [) x9 u) u( ? m) F+ s( y
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % R1 u' A9 D6 J/ P' o' D, j ?+ D: Q/ @0 \6 k) S# X
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。+ K1 E0 g$ ~! ~5 D0 d
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。. N5 g8 F% n" X" Y5 l
1 e. F* p% A8 g2 V0 Q3 B 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。% E' c$ U2 V; l+ B+ G- H
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 _6 ?8 I& j7 A" ?7 ^( h $ m" Q! E& z. e 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% @. @2 Q6 Q% f
" m& }" p- P: y1 v（责任编辑：杨海洋） ) K8 k; a3 l6 ]9 ~- a" `, G9 W7 ]6 J% X
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters0 i& e3 o2 D* k8 Z. Y
5 v9 n6 t7 v8 ~: ^3 kBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 ^3 v9 O8 Q6 s* n y4 r+ l# |8 r# T: j: c/ O. Q; {
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; I# |: H$ P: ]+ u8 R8 U1 y" L. v; r5 ?2 [% i8 f
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! l/ {( x7 P! h5 g$ M, V6 I Y. O7 h
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 d( b2 g# m) ~, \- q
9 ?9 g( w5 q3 tRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( M1 C; [) R1 Y! x/ T2 N# y' s. a5 ]- q
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 g% c8 j3 W' X! d$ s
' u3 k5 E6 M* K: y+ PThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & r; B" U- y2 F1 Y' \, i) E$ N
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 s* Q; A( w6 B: F1 m: S6 Y5 Z . t3 ]2 Q) ]0 i4 l) ZIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ q/ o* s; R! @' z$ N6 [
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 k6 A8 l% q+ {6 H
/ z% R* C/ _- v) i, d" | qThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 I# t0 k3 M8 w( H& N6 [! D# p* J# r& `4 H
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 f% c- W f( _6 R! n& ]. d' v# V0 Q$ n9 ?! d5 {9 A0 p
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ n/ c: w; m* ]7 N/ e' x1 p: P. q7 M6 N. y
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / P' z+ \% M; f# U/ @" D
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # Z! L. ?* [5 o% | 2 z% z9 N0 m z"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( q: Z1 D# F" O- B# N1 G- o B * f' I9 X" V3 i8 |4 HGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 q9 q; w7 |* G6 O' k& L+ [+ p4 q' J) K4 }0 x0 i
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
