外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年: L& l H: D+ [& G. M
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 : @2 j) j: A, {/ M' e( q0 P . y2 ], a3 i3 |$ o: c# ~" X $ ]$ R$ v6 W' R' _
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。& e& ` K$ V) h" l
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " _/ G7 f( s* n) B$ v/ [8 \$ y7 y v) t" ~ d* g
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 . ~; M. Z# z* S; M0 d$ {" y* N* P4 j( \! x% n R( {
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 d" y/ @2 X) Q3 y5 f
5 L3 r' s/ p% X- d5 H" x2 F 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& s* O( z8 Z1 S, r( O( {
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 / k5 o* g* [' H! `( n' R% v( {1 Z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 $ p1 @; o, P$ X/ O+ \, z9 E. t: | 4 M* \" y* B) `7 [（责任编辑：杨海洋） : ] l' S c. ? - Q+ d8 e( t8 BRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : z8 I+ d3 w, I& D 3 O: U$ ~( ~% {# \4 R, ABEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . H4 Z% B2 G" n* ^0 w9 x
; Z( Y9 c, K# X, X9 xA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + T3 s4 V+ ^: H \" K1 N8 i
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . @9 ?7 w1 f, Z; }" k& j( U+ ^2 M7 ^4 c3 @
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( P5 a( u. u( R2 w( l9 t 5 Y9 X" A5 b2 u& u7 w/ Q" \Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 B5 ~* \5 g) P- B' {7 J& R8 p 6 l; g5 n& w4 P: [First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 N; H) K6 y: i" o( ~* o
( ?( Y+ B8 a% |This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 o) [- J1 l! Q9 ?0 o2 Y
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & r9 c2 [ Q) k
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 K" x8 ?1 _+ x9 \
, r! ]. d5 \* S" R* z: KGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) s' u0 c3 J4 K
% K: x- ^0 I, Z R. @That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 C e0 o( S4 R& A) v2 c2 {# _2 F( q! h2 p1 W
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 P1 h, r- i. |6 F
8 b4 k" ~3 Y4 {- E LChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 _) ~+ Z, O' }' O6 A2 P+ T& m; l) U
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 h3 p8 Y8 T5 h4 m+ O- V9 O" X4 |* \: p% G& C
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . _. k& ^: l: E8 q+ A2 H( z. I- F/ L' Y( S! H% B
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " F/ _) o" e; q. f) X0 ?8 p4 b: w/ p 9 G, B7 \( |: y# bGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . b: \1 H5 B4 s
