* [6 H& `: V: n! z* C 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; s+ E* o$ Z# k0 n* f ]; w8 q& @ r# Z
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。! t9 }) V. N8 A5 R8 ]
1 a' J, k2 x8 y 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' l- Z+ B" }8 E$ t
, ^0 l9 d! _; j9 S 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 R7 _- k) ?. d8 s 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。/ E# K' a5 d$ f/ {" V
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) u0 W0 `1 c1 U9 D, K9 ]& \ d* X) k4 N1 U9 |+ K$ a, u（责任编辑：杨海洋）9 t2 S' O( r' ~$ F
5 g5 q$ o2 E7 l1 `- wRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters6 j( u' P' r: y# i5 Y4 i J
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 u6 Y- d+ R+ h6 o% ]; Q6 u; S 5 z5 r6 V; ~( x) wA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 \1 @$ s# P& |/ k% E. n( A% J4 i2 s+ ~8 w1 T. H! A9 ]8 R
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) `3 Z2 N8 y( P/ n7 j$ r. C. L, L+ |5 D8 B
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 K0 O* X; m: ]: T+ g* ?2 A& g3 o2 s0 x% t$ {; o, ~& U
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. S; F/ M# `" q% z2 H# x; o: A; Z7 b/ s
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 R0 ^/ u0 y/ l 3 o; u4 y* c, |* ZThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 B; g3 i$ p- m; a" u, e: z8 p
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 u2 B+ E3 Q* E( W+ r0 F, I. [ # t0 l6 l3 ~1 j6 Z8 yIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 U6 X- @1 s$ W0 A% _
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ {) N7 d) M4 d7 ]- d' z" R7 u1 }6 I; F! l
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 y: ^- u5 p: y* z5 t5 y0 l" I/ x/ d1 d
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. o/ _) H! u, a- A/ J1 l. z+ j2 b F
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 P7 P, i# q, `% m
! }8 ^# @) i$ g: ?6 _0 lIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & f0 D2 J7 F+ g4 D: _: p& Q, G4 l0 Y9 d) l: m& L" D
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 G4 I: k) w- P! C3 x 8 w8 O) { }1 o+ ?"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. S& ^' t- g+ V' H( y5 J
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 b8 R5 N" v! C* A % V. o0 O0 D X; r" hThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
