外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年# @* U6 R- U( u, y8 k
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 $ e- _2 ^& f% a4 B" z 4 a ~' l2 E! h# L+ i1 F" |2 o; x 6 x$ W+ q0 {- M0 O0 ^: G( y, }中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 1 O" P: K. s$ U7 I& R ^) m/ o% l( w: O& d' Z
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 5 S, h) [) J% V/ G/ {$ I 7 k, H% k0 u2 x9 }! |: s 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' F7 l& U* \3 j* d, k% z! G
+ R* [% ^( D1 ?; x& \ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' \2 c8 x% y P' a, [0 n: t
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( Y: P$ k. O7 [4 ^4 r
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。* F, J! |5 `. }. K/ W
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。, _" [. P) {4 Q5 }
/ c4 v2 c+ ]4 H, G, D9 I5 D4 T# J3 l （责任编辑：杨海洋） ' g0 _, r. J$ X. z6 ^ : {9 X! n; U' U: o, q" K+ N* b. |Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 A- Q Q" x) b4 e" J3 O
- X8 z+ p! K/ \( \5 l; a1 m, ?7 `BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 A3 w7 k! Y6 r) h+ _6 H' N9 p0 i8 s' q0 ~& E: X
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! H0 q$ P0 m8 f# y* N. A4 v
4 e3 `' E" v& N" o1 `Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 ?, b. d1 E+ K* K; C9 N; R
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 O8 C ]: {. p" j
$ H, J& Z5 _" E9 }2 `: vRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) Y) W. p" V* `+ h 9 B2 ?* ^( v- B z: A2 X5 NFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 _$ P/ K" c; U0 @- m
8 |1 c y( j' G2 L \6 ~, tThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " b h# E% F8 ]) x& J- v, W # r9 S3 V, \/ x0 w4 O+ v* m"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 O. j: c% W7 ]; U' z2 I+ `
/ h8 Q7 H+ V7 h7 wIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - a i" H) ~! D# i ; `! D. [. c% T0 B% h! V' W/ k' {Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * t: Z1 H& `5 [
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , d! x; h/ {2 b. W$ z2 }$ @
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 a# ?# k* F, a. H# R1 a2 P, _& {" k$ ]% x: F
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / w; y$ X$ ]2 g* E+ Q$ q
8 t! k0 q& F8 z3 e+ v& [7 Y& nIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! C% `6 f/ D% K ) A9 S( R# G) ~International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 _5 l6 l+ Z H3 _) l1 v: [
- G( W. z7 `3 S"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " t# F1 k/ `* H! p7 A
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' r d0 R+ G. g: Y5 \( o7 I " ?" x/ i* V& x0 G" VThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
