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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 x; c% T0 K! q8 x
. F$ M" p+ s: i4 ?) _+ X9 g) K1 r: U 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 - m q5 z. X2 p" p8 g9 W4 Y) U3 ^5 h: k( T6 ]6 S) ]7 A0 O
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。% U3 x2 g8 }, i' U( ^1 b
$ z j! h3 e3 ^; V 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 6 E t0 Q3 z$ D) |. W 9 D1 P- g; j2 l- a/ t5 E" [5 J2 u 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 : P3 ~9 N" Z$ p/ k, V% m 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 1 W$ M4 k; i4 n: W! @- }: s1 n3 ^: m3 m. q, F% J- O* Q% X; _
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / }: m+ L& a/ g 9 G0 q* K0 j# `; R# s（责任编辑：杨海洋）. M. J- Q y; b8 M% V& {( `
7 l" D7 N4 Z s3 `$ F! lRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" F l8 y4 W; T! m$ w
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 p7 M$ t# C4 q) [1 p; s# p( U9 h/ g, M* L/ M2 C
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ R( B( n3 Q0 U# u' I
8 e7 S" w' p0 S5 E. @Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % j8 Q _0 c8 g4 ]! q( O
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 X# V5 \5 R1 ~, W+ k8 [5 {( y9 e# R. U, }
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 |4 D3 A; p& f' F0 j' N# i* o8 C1 @$ y, F( O3 z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : X' t3 ?8 x% f y% T8 m' b* p4 E4 ~; u* I( M' e0 j/ E
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 i; s# B* F$ q! @% m
/ p* o6 i( n! w3 A"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 c4 _0 y% P* [( `) X+ ]: n
6 U/ X1 ]( n1 BIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 N* u. N- i4 I4 M7 l
3 z# J! f! x3 m4 ^/ |9 b6 YGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . x' L( ^( e0 Y& G/ W, A1 f & l/ ~! Y. q' c3 l2 [8 BThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : S7 @9 }0 z! j4 o' r# J+ T. ]6 b* i # b* h5 s* G5 A- H, _' k XUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / J3 P: a8 M$ R' E- [5 ?
+ z/ I; {4 o; \0 v3 XChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 i5 h/ N' _$ H7 [' y( i7 n1 ]
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # y) {4 e( i; l* M% ~+ } ! g# ^. j+ A1 yInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 D0 ~$ E" ?9 v. `0 ` , z0 F' {5 Z* g% N7 h* @+ r"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 m3 y8 \$ K8 s! z3 C$ g! c8 I! f9 P
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 c* [7 w$ @8 |, D5 e7 l5 P3 \8 J. t* e- Q- i
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
