1 u: i; x- V7 A) O, n4 m 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : ~( L/ t* M& Z ]+ D" [$ \0 h$ ?. Q* b1 `, d（责任编辑：杨海洋）; s8 ]+ d2 p4 K W% o, [. D7 `
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters0 F B `8 z8 N- ~$ A
% O* |! A9 C% s ]. N" I7 |BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 |2 n# }9 A9 i8 r4 l5 E) Z1 F
/ g7 k; Q0 T. ?' hA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , @+ H: G) D w/ v7 h% Y0 E
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 t, R+ ~5 n9 r3 \% | ) r$ E# D C6 U* P; U) Z0 i2 P% XAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 |' ^7 [* G, j& g
0 T% S$ L7 j: F5 PRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' X1 V, |) h) q" U8 ?8 u; M
! ^ n9 v; A+ T% l% C+ h/ bFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 p5 |0 i9 {7 Z5 y \, }+ j
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & P+ R5 o7 Z. Q, h2 E' W ^# b) `- r& v- @; j- X+ B, i
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 g% [) m4 }" P8 B% @
8 V2 c( l- F, J3 N$ vIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + J$ ~4 E [6 S) ]
# w6 B$ I6 E7 G; a% aGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ ] Y$ G1 a) B5 g9 D2 z6 ~
) X. f- j# _7 y7 @& e( NThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ i# [2 X& t" W" Q
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 S* O! C; S9 B+ t) d' U M+ Y' Q
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # E' t. r- b. d0 b' `
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. - t) K$ y4 F3 z0 a
' G. ]# R, N1 IInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : j" T+ g* H; m! Y# ~9 g/ V2 g
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - f4 y2 y; d; \* d
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( d) L/ V2 |# R8 ?! s2 W& \/ \8 f( {
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
