6 r7 j3 S3 o0 Q5 |! z* g/ \$ N+ E # `+ c3 e5 f: }- \/ q
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。# l1 M5 `: U& W/ x3 g$ m) P; a
7 M% K- [9 @8 [ G
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " K! D" l" v% D( |' c1 ?$ ~* Q1 h; z' m1 M+ u
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。5 Z. {. v! @; z
" i9 n. O. }. K
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 7 H6 V6 }! e8 A8 L" ]1 e/ {2 ], q. y' H' N8 l
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 b* V' P: ~; H5 M
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。1 u& h0 L& U- k3 _! G& W
2 U7 L% R- [/ A( T+ I5 r5 A
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 % W* t1 a% o9 X) y% f3 k; [1 O/ J" Z - v4 I# E# ~1 z* H9 N（责任编辑：杨海洋）* l8 N' G _" R2 K& {
v% v; ^4 T Q W9 J! m. RRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 3 `, R: x4 g, a# D0 t 9 j( ]% N c! _8 p( wBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 z% }( w a/ c1 N, `' L/ k4 W% ^# l
; }8 ~0 y" |2 U: `
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % j" S# b7 m$ C3 l / Q6 K- ~, ?' W/ @4 ELet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' {- a% f6 P8 m' |
% G7 H5 L5 X# mAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( g) r$ S' R2 |1 v
" \ o5 l* y: @: X5 g) SRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 |" N f8 y' j! _" x9 g ( I7 k1 o( P6 _! ~8 P7 b6 y1 |* ]6 tFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 {+ {' }" w, U g5 ? 9 b9 L$ C2 x7 d6 m) {! I4 pThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % u3 e- C+ ?' N9 d. @2 h 2 E6 e, g$ |5 S4 X5 n2 k"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , J1 K2 F6 c5 [
* s0 ?' s7 ]2 Q# v6 D2 c+ VIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + V% A: y% I0 a) b
8 L/ v; q3 q& p( R ^. {. }" j' X: ]7 b
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) x1 E. ~$ {" T: g7 O6 w3 Y$ l" ?" M: |- h- }
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) m" i3 z2 d% x2 C e8 z3 y9 V; y! p. R+ ?' g7 K
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 o# ^$ G* Z E
1 m) Y V) @3 P9 v$ D/ r( t# K; O
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 j; v! w2 c0 F! A* ^; i 2 o/ s+ p C- _" L7 bIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( T, g0 U, n% q# b5 C) |: j: Y
5 @# T! b- L4 m% b; q
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 |6 H% |4 C9 x- W/ E! }7 H* A$ }; b! K- P6 K; O/ s4 ]
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 {5 a( {5 r6 w* o. ?/ L
\% S# h+ y* m. ]
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 x% ^- x4 M. ^4 n1 A* m) P1 e% f
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
