/ K+ ~2 ?+ l# H$ }% u4 ?7 \中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ) Z; l4 N+ z h( a4 D' A 4 ~% L/ E) e% P' d( t# W8 g3 O P 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。) O( U: U0 C* Y" u, k, \% f6 r
/ h+ _; l8 V* W9 Q4 p: E/ y 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 p1 x# H! K. Q- _$ O
X; v' \+ {7 a/ l, |- f 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。4 t, q, y5 f) v, r
: W+ l, x" b. J/ X% J6 _7 {
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。. L- j6 P3 [' t0 c2 k1 u
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 8 m9 r1 `; `, n ]$ k, K u1 N; A" U4 v9 h- I! d" p, X8 U% t& U
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + ~) ^# c- N; A' b7 }$ k9 [/ U 9 `9 K, z$ M1 d5 ^2 u（责任编辑：杨海洋） / f. Q/ z% v& r7 c. W) R+ r( H ! K: ~0 E$ n8 a, J% J5 h4 XRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# x4 |0 x+ E; Q% G7 k9 Y
7 K0 a! ~7 \) }& C) R/ C
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 E5 L' M- D# R* R9 k- y3 L 8 }( h1 K. ?3 w w! B6 k# }A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. |4 N& `, }4 i" j8 I# V J " Z8 `% x: J: R5 S7 {: iLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; V2 }! S4 w6 v
3 ]/ o5 H' a* I6 |
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 b V7 e% z) W2 r9 R. y% e" H; C4 \& Y1 {) a
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , V; V7 _1 J5 _3 x0 { n+ Q; _6 Q
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 [8 E! M4 I- c + `. D" @' K! g g _2 C% eThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 Y+ C+ G) f, q4 Q, X v
2 P- r- k! g, B* B5 w
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & p8 i" [, [- K: h7 ] 6 R/ k/ s, ~ ?8 k& U; UIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. x7 D2 q$ `! Z
A3 |. l2 L0 g) g+ ~6 ^
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / ]% g, P' \" u" t' m- d/ m* B 3 L/ Q, o/ j5 d. p+ wThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 `' `4 D' b, D6 ^
% `2 a7 C# }% ]! B6 a" yUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . \, c; A. v) I" U! n# x% E9 M
, {/ D: |( x% D) O/ a
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 k; j: \! `1 }3 ~2 p6 s& H9 E* O, R% k2 y% Q0 x+ ]7 r
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : v7 _6 T, [8 `7 I5 V: A) x @8 S0 O# r. ?
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # t* G7 ?; y4 j9 }" K5 R" i - O1 q/ x% v3 [, ?4 [# n, ?: M$ X"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; \% g3 l% v/ G( L- \4 F$ A
! F; F- w# [4 ? d# W
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 n0 i- q- d* O. [3 C* [' X7 D
* g; x J7 l) H& C/ U3 ?
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
