外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 % ~7 I# t3 t% g- h4 ^" u& O- H2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞) a3 `; k. p0 _* e
, I5 }: N& |2 l4 |% l* Z4 Z: J) Y$ u( c 7 S$ d. r d& h. e z中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。& k4 g) j" X. o# M( ]4 w
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 & s/ U' L; J( i) i - d7 |9 k! z! b! h, q- C$ n 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 % J- k2 ]1 j0 R; u( x' w) K; B4 |! u8 E. z! m6 q! {) E
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。# ^! g4 d% z( [
- v& T/ W9 U9 G& [ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 , i/ R `% Y+ V6 ^6 e8 O 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。% s% @2 g$ K2 Z$ A
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: ?. Q1 w, B1 r5 y- w5 c4 G) A. G, B
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters N0 N4 J. U6 j: \9 B / E3 _% p2 X/ z7 k% v9 ~BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : W2 d3 j3 ^, { F F* g; Y" E
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' k( [: S: W S+ ~ ^" n0 |5 q
6 v( s# B1 B- }' wLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % y) J4 u3 M' b6 f, b! \+ ~ N3 x) B+ I }) o
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( @" o/ ~- D6 {
4 _+ w {8 U! v6 _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # O* Y, k5 D! ^0 z. f$ m5 q4 c9 e1 P+ z* `/ h" G
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! w- r C3 h' l; V# N! p7 u" a j) e) Y/ [! j+ u
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / G3 l& O4 f0 I% Q4 B$ z( v! p0 s' r& `$ k. C" t5 o
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 U7 b6 B) A& J' t$ m5 S0 \2 Q' O; l( B; X4 Q
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " [1 H8 z+ f U( [( ^, y7 ~) ?9 o2 d& P2 t9 P; p
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 F4 Y! M+ V+ a+ k( q- M ! m$ ~) \/ D* y& x& XThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 g7 I/ S% c1 j2 s0 t6 _) @) ^. M. d' s! I5 v1 r
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' D' p! X4 N! v5 [+ O4 H * E1 _: [ R# m3 w. VChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & [% ?6 G' ~3 _- y
& X* O8 ?; l$ T V+ a, s2 W* hIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' G1 B1 i, F5 D8 ^- m9 Q, W9 z9 L/ V
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) s* }7 y2 k& \4 J& U4 K
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & k9 ~, f( f2 F+ }+ [
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; V& `- a7 x) X8 E7 C7 A
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
