外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年. M. F* P$ B- A7 u: a% n; P
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 + b, I; a7 j/ l2 q+ @0 Z7 r' }7 N5 T
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 + K8 ^* X+ f- Z) t2 n5 M* G3 w+ z. J9 a8 ^
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 , u' y1 g. ]# Z8 d2 @7 P" d/ ^ & b$ B0 @; B' d4 ]3 n 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。9 c+ D5 i Z1 M. K6 U
E3 x3 l! a5 u& g1 Y `5 F1 x 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( f% i- p5 T! M; K8 h9 H
$ r( Y Z9 Z; o 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 4 u0 ^( [5 z: {, o9 { 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5 K" J& Z+ [7 n# O
# f4 e/ \* b5 `% o8 a" }! H8 Q+ @ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。5 B% ?* L; V& L; k
$ m, n! r: j$ X* g5 n: `5 H7 H) K （责任编辑：杨海洋） ; s, {$ m& d% O0 g' P; O% A 7 W" f+ A! e% t/ a9 o- aRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( Y/ a8 W( A; Q& j/ _' x
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . H2 w- d+ x% V! m. ?5 a1 p c6 f5 m& S. j% N+ {
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( @- D! F$ Y' D( S8 e5 e# j 9 V. |0 r/ V( U* H6 x0 d# x! G7 zLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 r# }8 t0 R* G" f# Q
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ I" `' }' s ^) }# _% H8 B ! z/ ^. P) d/ l* G2 q$ d$ q! IRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * A2 X. q @# W7 {( C % M2 \3 S6 n7 h4 OFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. |2 q5 d8 @+ z* X! O" v8 R
- }( D1 H( q, d# S. hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . h9 }6 n* S* b7 [1 i! z" n9 ? K6 w' A* C0 ^) ~
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % s3 `8 @# h& \ Z) z) V2 P; M4 i
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 l8 e, M5 I6 Y9 q; [6 x: j* b! c4 i* s) V% d' U& i
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. y4 }8 U, {3 {# _) M5 i
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % Z' ?& C, Q5 j( c$ E
& ^: o8 K; G0 W+ `Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 b( S- I2 _, P/ e* E e8 \
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( C ^& e" M3 s2 z$ u5 K7 J5 |% v2 q T3 h
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : [8 I6 ^. T. [5 @! o1 I3 t8 ~9 ^
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & U8 E+ V0 h( w6 o 0 v9 i4 N! h* }" h"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 u& |" i6 t5 h% [$ h
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - T6 L6 b8 U$ s, t& J% E& h
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
