外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年4 C. a2 N9 G% V% D4 c% O3 W
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 2 x6 z7 Z% l' c/ p$ y* O' m, N* k+ U$ f/ h7 g9 ?6 v
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 G* v) d4 l1 {
1 L( L. \ i8 ^: e# h' X; [9 m 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。: ~7 }) r* h( E. x0 z3 ~$ ^# s
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 8 u/ l) u, e' H8 _4 b5 ]0 S8 V9 r# D! S* ^7 @% W+ G0 Y3 A
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。! s( T* b) \! J7 J) g8 k7 t' G
% J( q0 G( @3 S3 p6 i 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& e8 t8 w9 x# |2 m+ X
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。* t: c1 ]6 I+ S* j5 I. u8 `
' @' }. L o7 H4 P& N 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。& j/ n$ f- V4 C; E/ P( h
& ~. f% V- L; a. T3 Q（责任编辑：杨海洋）$ Y& M( E# L) d+ H& }( v
/ r- X) d' k3 g" Q5 \, nRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& Q$ D, b; @9 `' m; }: i
" w7 J0 q9 y) `9 Z6 oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; T% i) Z) A- X3 d+ Y9 R- w% S1 h4 t9 l$ P/ s' N7 ~3 d1 O& S
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ M% {2 S" w/ E) z n* U" D5 ]% Y2 m3 P, |* ~- k
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 a$ ], j0 R0 w' P$ J p
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ Q' p$ k \) ]+ O( v3 r j$ u3 d) Q# N" N/ D
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * E2 Y% u# } S3 P/ G. F3 p ; x7 B; p/ `2 r; tFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. i$ i0 k d/ q( M+ z0 { v" C6 D' _- I2 v8 P# i8 J
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & C) _- F) i' w/ ]: h, G( `8 Y
/ ~! p/ b+ F' |7 P' ]"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " R8 h7 L# W7 B- J' S) B: K* w9 F2 m! J3 u" L
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; A2 c8 ]. }0 o2 b3 z" g+ w
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # o T) f0 z7 l6 R' x" T+ r* m, K, `& ?
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / c& A/ a+ a( X( k% `1 {9 W
+ M% L! W, o1 g2 n' S Q+ kUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " f# E) v9 e+ F/ t- }7 K" n% n0 K
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 O6 N6 N6 L6 B8 Y; ]' X' A
$ i8 `. k& ]4 t* K, d7 W0 n: wIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 l- b. O5 Z0 V+ @' w4 a
6 k( y" L# N: \ W: eInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , E p. k/ I- d# o o- |0 i & P0 G7 c& y! i! L/ B! K- X"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( X+ l( y. ^, \" M$ W
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 r; s5 i+ Q$ O9 E. o6 s
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
