1 Z g- k' G- u2 r" @中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。+ k7 r: f Y' p( z* E+ U6 r
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % S0 P* |: E. r 1 t8 a4 [+ @4 }2 M2 a9 ^" k$ V' N 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 6 j! B% \# u8 Q) G/ G/ @* g/ R 8 ~9 N/ Z0 _: L- `# [6 _ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 6 l1 J" f( M, H f2 f 8 F+ b6 N( h% x Y' e 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ) F/ @1 C' `6 J4 i7 d4 a$ J 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 9 M" g8 v9 G2 G( J+ G: e 5 a- F8 }4 @ g, m" ~1 J* s 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。" t) n6 {6 d$ X% g) a) c
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# R" F' w# k: Q a; }, a7 v$ F) N% h
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 q( z+ ~0 o& ~- o( M) R " J% f8 j" y* u/ c8 JA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / w5 D1 q+ u! X 6 }4 n+ m# h; M0 OLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 [: |4 ]- o8 s) u6 M w. S# p; b3 v' P* D9 e7 s/ D
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * O! P3 T; [: L, |
- p1 G* U* m7 oRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # s4 T7 u5 l) H7 j& w2 s
, Y! ]: s7 P9 t/ n3 d3 ]7 L; x: C8 JFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / `0 P$ i% o& U4 o& o# F
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . V. E' ~. J. _3 F; B& M4 q$ |5 E
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * ?- f2 I- U' ?1 b+ v$ C. \% x5 y) Q0 c
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! l! l }1 B8 [9 H Y7 F( x9 x A+ R9 I$ f, Z& z) ]6 N. B8 v" N; TGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + K6 X7 j; B& r$ N5 J% A5 h 7 N d% j5 b0 WThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 C. z! y) n* F/ N
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , {5 B5 _; |, L- ^ 2 R; H9 O9 Q/ F' iChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( J3 F+ |( t( j; e- {) \
! _5 E* L) u# u6 F8 s1 I4 \If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & z5 i P" M# B0 k- T$ m" U
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( @3 }/ L' _$ e1 i8 `! G$ N& C" }7 }7 A# I1 s; J; r. p2 R
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 ? l' A+ B l' G+ a; Q+ T$ t" r) Z/ l5 @6 {4 Z
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . B; k2 u9 p. |
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
