Board logo

标题: [中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑 [打印本页]

作者: Ampelmann    时间: 2010-8-19 07:33     标题: 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年- L( @6 G! r3 T  z; X( N: b/ R
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞% G. X, V7 S* x" K  J# ^, T

% M( L# R' v  E+ K3 L) C
" N1 o6 `& d; o中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。; ?- ?7 ?7 d- N/ z) _0 x; I

/ }3 q; L  {9 v  k" b/ ?  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。
6 M( V& U0 ]  M0 h. y6 Y9 P( {
5 E0 r) m9 Q, ~3 ]" f5 {( I  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 N* v8 O- O0 }
3 j) E4 F1 E6 o2 j
  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
4 s( K' p, ^5 b" z
' @0 ^/ E+ P# s) m- I  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。; r2 o0 _6 ^* l: [7 Y( C, A8 @
  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。- _7 X7 ?) i1 c# j0 R' C% M
  U, T* g2 H; R; X; C* f
  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。& F( x% @0 ?0 M7 u. {" `' _: p! a
2 s# ^. Z1 o' j/ ]
(责任编辑:杨海洋)# d% t5 d9 a3 @

* Y6 W6 p( \: |4 D  n  q" sRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters4 U( P; n2 X! Q$ z5 T; [1 n

( R8 L  S) z+ w1 jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows.
  c/ p5 A. e& g/ E6 d& @1 E; F6 k( |7 b: x" S
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 X3 G7 C( L% Q) J

8 N0 Q4 n" `, KLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
% e* d" v8 r% P; ]8 u4 e  h/ o1 p: Z, h% g7 N! w  `1 u1 u
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # I7 O1 `  G* y: B" B

: Y( e0 h% [  \( ]# D1 [, KRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - C* D/ X3 E. v
3 T5 y9 e9 O5 D1 o) M6 q4 y5 Y9 w8 T
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
2 V' `6 d* A) h3 b
9 D( u. s( `% q0 m7 kThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers.
% h4 z+ X  @$ C' M8 Z0 ?
# `9 n* M; }$ P4 U8 ~1 S# C* A"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ a% w  I/ G5 w- |, K. O/ q

! Z( w" W4 i" ^; ~In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.   D8 Y  {  k8 w7 ?& a, h
) K" T5 F& r' h
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
6 A+ P6 w0 f8 n: J& K+ q0 N9 e8 [& g# \7 P  ?( a
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office.
2 P# \% s4 r: P2 ~# @5 [& x9 ~+ ~; p6 ]5 s. i" S
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
, |7 V7 E8 o% X, I, W7 O" F+ l( L; I
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
; {+ h1 S* ?+ Z% v5 o2 e; _9 D6 `8 I9 w6 G7 j; O3 s0 g0 R) h5 f
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
! `1 ~6 A0 q9 S* D# k  B! K
6 M& Z6 X6 y% F% ~, o7 X# LInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
/ l  j" S# j+ `  N8 K3 x, ?# h5 L6 S  J
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - p" J, |8 [) V+ ?  P* B2 X
, n! l( R+ Q1 {+ j* U
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / Y0 ^3 M7 ^' T* o1 H
4 ~, a2 L# l- }! Z; B( u& v
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.
作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:26

顶一下
作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:27






欢迎光临 人在德国 社区 (http://rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de/bbs/) Powered by Discuz! 7.2