外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 1 N* e+ R, F; ~ v2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 % U8 R% k& b& ]& C+ l ]/ D' c4 d4 U& z) F2 F
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 - I2 o: {5 p7 M5 [+ C! Q x ) R; o) m* d; H2 k3 U8 x 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 1 Q2 m" C+ A& o" _4 A) p9 t d0 g; E ! @! N3 e! L- t) H 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。" H* g6 G/ h: j. B1 l" \8 H' L/ i
/ l4 w& M" F3 a) y, r- C9 M5 l 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。5 X( a$ J- \' D. N! A6 k
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 / |# C6 { @3 R6 L! I 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。9 m# n, c; s* |0 h6 L! y
* O! w7 |# N( a* c; \$ o 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) ~* i$ y+ i+ o9 y- U5 S0 p) q% @! |$ ]/ X) I$ X （责任编辑：杨海洋） 9 ?0 m# o' M- `; ^ + E# v- Z9 z6 ^3 g ?Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 A, y8 B! q. k% o # ]6 Z% B# m9 Y" O# O' ~1 yBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ U. F5 y+ j% k0 q# {' n) X ! Z6 w/ k# _( ^% F4 U5 [2 f- b" PA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. r' s. Z9 h# O+ S3 ^
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 ~* ]( {) a- E# X, R/ I S5 O0 R+ E6 ~
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + D8 Z$ E' e, M% R3 j' K7 g5 ~7 G. I( e! \( z
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! {, g0 E8 f6 G. W3 U! C* \5 K; r8 i0 v+ }; z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 ^6 O3 Y4 V8 D6 c* @& m
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . B6 {3 c& I* B. Z
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * f3 m Z( o% v8 Z3 s5 ?. @
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 j: P, D0 g6 k
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 c% l6 R7 ~3 f: W% U; ?. g6 `
; U4 o9 a! m2 v4 w# v9 HThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , S$ G2 |* I" R6 M6 s / H4 k5 b3 b, `; j4 E8 o7 r0 e+ `Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : a E9 y, B, u9 o3 ` |9 `2 J
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 @/ x4 |+ E0 ?' e$ Q l$ u0 q3 Z- r# @% X" b
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 V3 U. v' ?: M. v8 W ! ~0 L7 @& y! V3 r) UInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) t7 }- Y9 X6 g
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! C3 ?7 C- B% P, v9 P/ N( u6 D0 l
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 d+ d( f6 W0 }0 T+ X4 \. e% n
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
