k8 v2 H! W& o3 ARunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ C9 W2 N% u( {6 W# z1 z
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 s6 A4 }$ C+ }: R/ E8 F J4 O: K/ Q
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & j5 f7 D, v9 e2 d+ T* H' A' ]. G3 I% l' r
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 b7 E; t9 L1 \6 K( P# R
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : q5 }/ c8 L4 }* L2 \5 ?
3 K C6 c/ N) w9 P0 N% IRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! G4 | b' x- c3 g0 Q! h5 \! _+ O& }+ {. v
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 r% F8 _5 L# U( t* Q+ y- K" Y
. `2 R/ c' g7 J" kThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( j& m5 W" Q1 v/ i. K0 b# ?
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 z7 Q4 B1 f3 ?" P4 Q0 W/ m+ [
6 |( h; p8 m5 _; |% O* AIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; ^, C; i, K! A; F1 w 6 I, n4 E* j# ^* C' N N7 gGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . A1 n+ Y! ]! f+ x% e
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! M/ m; ^2 _$ q% U* A# S( }- U) ? 0 [( e3 Q; ]! y! oUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 n* S) Z l# R+ D. ]! X9 `9 U: {7 H- C/ C8 R3 }) z' o7 K- d
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". F$ {5 O( J2 }% H C+ \2 } ; l2 \/ H7 a7 y! L. ~/ o( J2 MIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . k) E; f/ G6 Y; j' P, C8 O 8 I. m. x* |0 |) O: X0 HInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - ?4 q. I8 l+ q
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , A+ Z8 b, C* H2 M' [) ~2 N; q: Y3 P/ ]4 {( R/ j: @& h
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 B4 _! j/ X0 G- \0 c* Q6 Y X$ Y! ?4 X, s# H
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
