外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 6 r8 u8 r0 a9 U5 Z" F! p4 [2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞# s5 i: o. H1 @6 G/ E- `2 K# m- }/ @: M
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。8 A P! k1 e, u2 X" Z* ?, G/ B' M- o
[0 K8 P2 P7 a; H 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- O( ^( Y3 D: I2 F+ |( b' Y3 h
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。- R# o" ?9 c: ~+ j" T+ D
8 Y* @8 D M% N4 I. S! r 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ M- J* @% T ~+ b# R
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 % L' r# {' l# z: v7 U3 q' O: S2 m 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ! m, y" S5 {, A9 \! s# n; `- _& i9 n8 j. C" Z! l; @
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 . D, l8 c& n3 I' z % k9 V4 \; _# G) M9 E0 u5 V, C（责任编辑：杨海洋）0 H, `% h$ C4 z$ M! K2 J
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 2 [, p( _4 d9 w% M# Y, d; l" {- k [9 ~0 ~# ], m
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 ]4 ^+ o2 j- p/ [
' I c) V$ p/ m+ dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 Q3 { `: {( K2 F, I0 U7 Z
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( b2 c }# l3 L3 k. o, \9 U6 q
" s6 L/ Q: D5 T8 @After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) n; I: q( E9 D3 A8 ~+ m) |
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) A5 e0 n( T$ _# X. R 1 ?& z! u7 g$ p/ a6 N0 PFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 m- Q$ p1 n( X7 G6 ?: K2 s4 u& U" b( b) a
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 Y2 Z$ I" \/ r3 b2 M
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( f" _6 F* f* M; n
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 w1 v' }/ C& b4 e) A$ ~* f( W0 F7 ]) S
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 m! m$ g2 `( F+ N/ Q- s0 A
+ Y% U, X# F2 G- ]That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . i3 }" S# p6 k3 K" S0 o) [; s7 V# k! j+ ], v/ ^' M% G3 W
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - q) R0 A6 f0 _7 n% J7 ^# b5 A
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; S. }( Q, }2 ]" C! H
' l$ W1 _- O0 K9 \If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # @. E2 d* \& `: W) P& p5 }! U5 j7 L S4 [* d" X
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) {* R! W7 d7 [7 s, ~
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 ]" s; U: r, T! Z 7 U& Y* D# G3 h$ cGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 A& M9 _' {0 X% m( ?2 x* Y
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
