7 r$ u, x3 s6 H } 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。' n' ~* k/ s% F2 v1 R. X6 s- ]) r W
) ^, T6 W5 i3 { q* D) u4 H f（责任编辑：杨海洋） $ Z, {4 |3 x3 f; R$ y; t# K+ ~' W4 N
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ( G0 g! l, E0 @/ n5 m( {0 o: J v: `$ t- v
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ H4 F, \$ `2 J3 y7 U3 h% F9 G$ _7 ~ C" S4 Y
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 k( v1 j) h1 S1 ?$ M! i
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 [2 s( |- M" U: f( m
0 k `* g; P- `4 ]After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' A: T+ P& v c
$ f# f. _/ |9 \4 g! X/ qRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 d+ ?9 w3 v/ j/ |2 s* ]; B. ` O
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , Q2 [: ~- ? n, }3 S
1 L R6 j, z( g/ j0 wThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 m0 z: `# W% |, H0 C G7 D: }& Q/ W. F3 ^"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % r7 ?1 g* f; a7 ]' V3 G0 R
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 J" t" K, ^/ a4 w+ Z& a! b
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 g9 u0 K2 E; c1 I; n; o
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 f, B1 E0 ]1 ?. o$ }$ C! J, E3 A6 ^2 V& y* c* t
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + t) D6 F1 a& B9 O4 h6 G9 r2 l9 J7 g
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' j- q, c1 x3 ^" R) F
4 I: ^1 _ g) t2 p8 o0 `' r7 z p+ FIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + k- M. h" d2 u" p& G P# V* x8 G$ w; R# j0 d
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ h3 n& w6 X: s# F
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : A; u6 b7 Z. M+ q9 X) Z* ?4 W8 L4 ?2 n; R ^" c5 w5 t1 M6 M7 u/ ]
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 X s0 Q6 F" h" R2 X6 e
) |" v' U ~! u# R( e, g* hThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
