外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 1 Z6 e: l; t7 U4 {7 u2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞% J+ J9 Y. I! A' v
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 n: u5 D/ V$ b; g1 ~6 |& Z
. }* r3 J% c% |4 o4 V 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 . u; N; m: A a 5 o3 y* ]! G9 @ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。6 b# n% p: R% U9 F$ V/ q, y
+ c+ b' |' h+ P# u 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 % b, W" J4 A6 y' c- C! W7 e k 1 a! D% Y& B4 A* g' \) H6 c 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。+ {/ P0 @- a; j9 {& E
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 0 v9 {. ?, G) G- f1 I$ C ) q2 v9 T3 J" {! A" c* _0 M! \ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。7 s: o; W2 E, X* s& n
) n& W; c) O% v/ _. w （责任编辑：杨海洋）1 Y8 T& a8 B( @- A: V+ c
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 ?4 D8 `% T- y: x1 Q6 E, B
# Q1 p, n! _$ ]6 YBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 @% ~& g% {4 S" F R, M$ `# e- ~3 y, V3 k( s) T V
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " T# x. l* `0 V
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 E" O0 U+ A$ T5 r7 L6 _' M 4 i3 t/ W x# O7 PAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. - ~ T T# ?7 L$ \* a; w3 M% L* e+ W0 ]6 O( A( F( P4 a
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ l% l/ S. C$ Z! A9 S; f# X) t7 p6 F% Z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ Q: K t+ d' @& ?2 ? # H3 l( ^+ D5 }$ l; l& M# I: jThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 z: r& k( b, V. N2 I; f
9 W2 ~+ S0 x$ Y1 J"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! P& v9 f. O5 R5 N C D( O9 S6 L4 ` x S
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : U2 s( Y' o0 I7 |* t! H% D 7 [0 h1 q9 ~4 q/ k. XGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : M0 [4 c. X7 H0 E+ {- T. S - h0 A# i0 Z* d% K0 C4 G3 |That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 D8 V4 m& y& }0 K7 l; J! l0 G: ]! o1 G# f/ N+ G* I$ R
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , s( a' ] ^6 M9 M4 S ; v2 X4 K. U- P4 a; o: K4 p( pChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / O( g4 W4 Y% u8 l. ~$ `) R$ e) W+ x5 t1 K9 u/ x
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) c' d6 X7 I% N $ @3 G: a, R, D: m6 ?International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / ~4 m( n1 N/ ~6 f7 r0 S# U% ]) t+ [7 r- T
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & N' F/ w3 y6 e + `$ \/ ?9 k! S$ L0 {4 fGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 ]" i' \8 w) e B0 ?' P' _9 FThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
