外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 " p& g h- w. a3 G' O: f2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞& P2 {1 O m8 U8 ]. b8 r
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。* ~+ C" H% f0 L& G$ o+ w. g) Z8 p
% i) s* |/ p! \! _+ L8 L 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。" I0 @* t" t' n
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 l+ b Y# }/ f' p0 ^" s' I/ _/ B' K) M
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) p" |$ N$ u! u0 D3 o8 M0 k: r( |8 u4 p3 B
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。; V3 O& c2 n3 y( J* y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 H/ H# M1 ^/ E( I& m9 F) z7 k7 J- y! S& R, e- Z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + @7 p1 h. C# ?) b& P. ^- T5 J; B. I# J( d( ^7 L! z; C2 X* ` （责任编辑：杨海洋）1 n! }: g0 j1 q8 O, i8 t
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 1 _$ F* ]) v0 a5 c( ^) S: f1 f' h1 C2 _
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 G4 K$ _2 B a
. C$ B" {# i+ @3 b. a. N" f6 gA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . f1 a& Y, v" X
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ Y9 g4 a8 U! C $ G0 j3 A5 ]* L$ H! w( aAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * w& Q+ y5 L( g" I% f5 i0 Y( E( E+ f( K, l8 ~0 H
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - m$ `6 \4 t7 R2 E
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 a6 W; s1 e; ?1 s
8 e7 ?8 @7 P: U1 O; aThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * g6 o" v" [( @ * Q0 U' L! h3 @$ ^"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 |/ @; b" F2 V5 w/ R8 w" e
; ^$ h; N0 |$ s* @& ^4 k7 eIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! t* X- @1 D/ Y" u n- d& M7 p4 Q( l 1 \- ~, y) @, b# I% l" QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : L5 M' k- v9 d, d7 c 0 v8 R& J4 m; {: h* vThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! \% x' n$ w& G4 m' N4 h$ T% \
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 G% @" G. L5 J0 O
4 l8 N+ ]$ t u" fChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 Q8 g7 R0 S+ {3 Y9 R9 X
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' N; d, t! c' N) Q& Z# G
! Y6 E& k1 h2 ^, @International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / A9 [4 D" M/ ~: g$ S3 ~! h5 J, H! r1 l5 k2 z6 _. j/ N% d% R0 g
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 x+ z8 z: ?, {1 \
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 d8 P6 ]2 j6 Q& u% n) Y* `- z7 `
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
