外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ( v+ C9 Y: z" W) Z% e2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 + _6 f- n$ T4 b0 J5 u 4 q0 q. S/ v) _+ ~; r% j x7 ~# V 3 x( \, v0 R! _, U/ n# N8 ~/ J
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。7 Q) Y# K5 [6 U5 u
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 2 T1 y6 x. U8 z3 Y! p " e5 J: V2 K% w4 i& C 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。( u5 c( r; i1 f8 o9 K+ _
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 - N7 N# b) Q. O& n5 j9 T# ~ ! q* v, H* K0 Z* }" c8 _1 I 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 . u0 U/ A: A( S3 D' [8 O" [ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( W- h% L! c9 g" |' l* ?
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * y& n( i2 |7 ?) K! u5 [" N5 K0 c2 ?- o# g9 v: V0 s# e （责任编辑：杨海洋） " E. O/ f1 V9 r! t# _! O7 f 6 L6 M& _. D$ v8 Q8 BRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters! [' ^: X; ]/ }1 {& Z
( l" I$ x3 w& R& M" a$ dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - Y! U/ n0 U! e
- F& E3 z" ^, {0 eA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; |, |+ N9 p9 c5 V+ D2 _8 X2 g2 |
1 A" ]0 O! D# a0 c5 j* q" SLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 ~' e$ K& T3 B1 S2 z* R& O 4 O' |3 _# R' v+ UAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + h% T( S8 u9 k9 i- }: }- c1 G$ [3 P2 h " J; q6 o, a/ A3 ^$ r+ O! i* pRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. X3 T$ |4 A+ g2 i6 v$ `& f* G$ L7 u# x E3 ~6 e! Q' d1 E! a
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! z9 T. K$ X/ T7 Z0 q
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 }& Y, b* {4 p8 q. F. p $ t" n3 n: t5 K1 a9 W+ ~) P"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " ~) e* ~- z+ V) |3 ?* n, `$ W5 D/ {8 {
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 `5 t( q* ~+ e4 i$ m2 f- b" O 0 _% H6 _! J8 o; S: sGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / _) Y% I Y4 J& O7 m% Y
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , t% s, ~; H( f4 L9 }0 i
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , |, v% V- t( x4 d
]6 ~+ {1 l. M( u0 cChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . l& v9 [6 P n" Q5 `4 r$ u: R9 |3 \
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " s& B5 {' v0 T( g7 B& M; J B5 V, r4 c( o+ d" o
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; l/ w* _- J. @/ y3 q( q
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : m5 S. b/ g+ ^- G4 b3 o# J 2 G0 h3 M6 }8 w( hGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . P4 W' T& W# u- \* @; L! ^ P1 F9 A& } ~1 b
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
