" C4 ?. B8 v/ x. g Z中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 * `2 A& Q. K) a: f, g * z; f# X1 E' r 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。6 I- {5 M7 P2 s. L/ p) e6 A
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。) _' E" N. @% T; q) ^$ q
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。& s- m( G$ r. n" k7 x
) K# d9 E: U, d }) W& b 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。/ y g4 O! J, l( g' G4 M
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : X. f: l7 A& V! _5 f) Q3 ?2 b3 g# [& P * o5 S# ?/ m- t& [, o 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 p% B( j3 y w, I/ F) s+ C; p6 p* E; R0 r （责任编辑：杨海洋）# d2 s9 @4 e: T6 R3 a5 j$ E) T
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 5 E- B7 n! w7 p. K : B( y7 S8 h; g: \1 }( F2 ?BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; Y y% g4 \! N5 Q- k8 x+ Z 5 Q9 G% }5 R3 c; xA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 b7 h$ D1 H3 u) L- ?
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " N0 u' c) Q0 @4 Q/ T5 c& U
R7 E* ^* s) E! Q+ k% |9 a5 y8 r5 LAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / y6 |% {- \' `
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! L$ N \: Q) C# m0 V $ i5 b C6 j" ]6 `First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 E+ u! w( ?. l, ]* C+ W! Y : X) Z5 p$ D6 o2 z8 KThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - K5 p, g6 {6 O2 x- ]) J. |3 e% b9 _* a6 Q4 n! P, ~( b# U
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 `4 w- o8 A' ]# }, L
7 o1 d- D3 I% Z/ C4 p% MIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 u: r0 C- E7 Y( p6 B" y/ H* k5 p# H4 @; r; r
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # w I/ S8 V# C6 U+ F6 o! J' t c
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ j3 H- {7 G+ L- v! X
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & H1 n. y. V. W2 @: ?" v5 ~% f. v; Z; }0 ?/ G
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 M$ F0 z' M6 d7 L- h. E* \$ J: h" N
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( t* M, ~ g. y) c* x
) A" h0 J) T+ C0 KInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 G$ f2 s3 o, f6 t# T( y0 d; Q+ m, H& R7 \; N+ ^5 X0 s8 c, d p! W
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : |9 d: v0 C) m6 ]5 y2 ~2 K# F: F6 [/ v9 A
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 l7 W3 y. O: P# x5 v4 U 1 E" {2 A( }+ }/ M9 E6 ^, F9 q- BThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
