外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年1 t3 m6 V/ F9 @3 L: M3 d
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞/ u5 q( Z& E4 A1 i% Q- p: k
c1 d5 @- A- w* _, E
: G* Y# {( \' \2 W7 d+ U
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。0 \2 O, u: a1 {6 Z+ c: I" \
) G# k1 V, u0 O- E: c; H R
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 7 G" J5 t1 D9 @$ Y9 e8 c ' v/ e; R* F$ G1 T1 _( a 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 c) H' \- f: i& _+ y& m ) d* r8 J7 P7 Q! K: Z 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 , n/ S6 b; _6 n: ?* _; y: H6 @% f% {) V
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 u- J! n7 F' x+ ` \9 P
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。, P; s3 V" ^ t4 d. r' Y6 `4 X
6 c/ N/ N, Y! R; M4 f( g' [
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。. Z; I& D7 C8 H3 k# B
# z1 S6 l6 [! N9 d$ B（责任编辑：杨海洋）/ T! I6 z! k2 c" m0 W* N& W5 L
% `8 e' K3 b J- F" r
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ! @% e- m+ [, ~6 W R+ r7 P" {4 Y4 A5 H- r+ l& O- f3 y* U
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) x" n6 {) ^1 L' n5 ], p8 F6 o5 h/ @4 K7 l
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - f0 S9 y; D \
% ]0 v. h5 v/ A8 M: S7 VLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * h8 r3 \7 \; K, F, x3 h, X6 g4 C' d0 {2 t$ c& l7 u# t# W
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , x: p& U+ ^$ V. b
1 y/ e) s+ r' F# B y
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - R8 U1 F, m6 V: U7 }( R* [
1 C6 D/ f7 s/ u# c' dFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) P$ w6 Q6 R4 h. Q1 O5 Q% r6 u
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' p2 d2 Z- J! X' s% M Q K. ~
3 R+ k' S5 G3 @; M/ M# L, o+ V% @& w"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + C1 {3 x7 E+ ^' K) B0 D& q
) ~! i: f n# j( p. p5 I
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( ?) t; k: T& J$ q- |
[3 K' ]9 K9 y3 H& L; d; {' z5 n
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 ]4 _- a' j% G6 o7 L& \
4 C2 l: p# A3 u3 M, V
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! ]& t. m, x! Q( v+ k6 }
* F; A( ]. V. d [. l6 v4 m; Z
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ Y; H( J; V P3 U( @9 [% [3 S x- ~3 t/ Y% z
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 w) Q j" E5 c' r, o' Y3 E
9 S' s* X! c2 @* V7 ?$ V
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 |- K8 I! J7 ?* V5 B0 B& l7 M. }& F& J
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) G% J5 h j. i: d; J9 O
& K8 m9 o5 Y* R; N$ a4 T9 I6 V
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 E" s( Y- d+ a2 V 9 }2 w, K2 ^. W4 X" uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 A. D) E& K# y* A z! C7 z & X- ~ ]4 U2 D3 [Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
