5 \* h. [7 s; n8 e" A( @. k 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' @* H2 n- v( R' W8 v9 g5 E9 y% \. ?" x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 , ~* Z6 e7 y p7 T" p+ B# L: q- _4 G4 ^, F5 ?" G* ]
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。, P* L+ m: W) c
) u( f+ ?( @% g* H" q5 Y# s7 X3 [1 z （责任编辑：杨海洋）8 g/ \0 A1 W& i" S
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters* I, q& t2 M( E
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 I G! q; i$ o0 n/ h ) p! r, D3 `5 c7 O2 RA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 7 [: H4 S' x! m' a0 x4 {3 I! a
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & R8 Z3 ^. H; A* P* l; W* Q& j
. e+ R B, G9 X1 E7 d/ nAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ k$ }( w$ t# N" e; u1 R7 K
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ L" \' R( x* N4 b3 ~# j( l7 R
' l* J7 P0 {! T& J! ]: NFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , N* o7 V- L* d% Z* d
: \9 `3 _$ R! W8 nThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 g/ b6 Z" l6 F. n/ E }+ F0 w
" \$ a% J3 M$ q6 A/ v/ [) k- w7 ]"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 L. E& }. ]$ b$ z$ B( V9 i
6 g9 S( |7 i: _2 H! ^" jIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. x: e# F& X+ r6 j& R; p7 u0 L p9 s* P
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 D0 k" r3 B4 Y
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * I5 q: Q x" `( R' E0 ^) b ( m4 T; O& ~3 N9 e7 qUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # e- ~$ P L' b! \$ {; {/ H
$ z% _- G+ E# L* c4 F. C# \China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " L, J# q' t& o1 z& D/ c
6 D3 N5 Y' S5 Y @& Q2 aIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . [5 ~& M4 \! V+ Y0 Q 5 a# Z5 K9 Q8 Z" F1 ~International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & _- W' V1 X; n% t8 z
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 w$ W% e: X. C- w* u* l- R# F
0 p7 _7 ?! i6 [& l0 `# W0 ~Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : j5 Q+ c0 i# a* Q9 L: _ 3 X3 ^, Y( P: wThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
