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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 }1 R: J) D, w0 O5 s8 v# I
% Y. w, h; |( f 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 & c H4 [8 D; S% ]( M1 \9 T0 A' ^# a# K4 n+ z* U* g1 e
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 : c; ^5 _: E- h- ^4 Q& G& Z% L7 ?, w, F) s: \1 S
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 7 Z0 r* K. c4 E( q9 W/ q4 W! \# I& R, ]# V# A
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。' }1 |8 T$ g B6 {
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。9 J: E/ y* h+ s+ K7 H. ?! B
2 U% ^; X0 Y( R7 j0 f 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 . B Z3 `2 y. k' H' U* f$ E3 `! w& F. ~" o （责任编辑：杨海洋）- ]" y% ?$ \* P! ]! j8 j
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& L7 v6 Z! x8 [, t' u3 V5 v6 P9 L0 O
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 [3 D, Y* m* g1 d5 u! p1 `
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 7 Y+ f8 L9 r y) \$ R! @+ f+ W6 i+ B# R- N8 e9 v6 \6 C
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) d0 e1 t0 D: @$ j8 j. E. D0 u; y5 N% x: s7 p$ H1 n2 v, W
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " p' P- K7 I4 X% W5 f
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & W6 @& O6 V8 P0 m- y0 b, B3 h
" j" k. P; o. r& n1 zFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / E& D# A5 B; b5 y- r4 k - k5 _ D: H8 i$ `3 R, y0 ` j. l/ S! ]This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 E6 ~+ k* F8 N- A8 ]& f$ i& u% f/ S / q- X0 v( Z# A }0 f# r"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & r4 W4 M ~/ A4 p( j: j' s/ T* r6 u& v% K, X/ }! L* h! e
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % F" I# i2 ]( E3 r% s& s/ m
0 x1 y! ~5 ^0 w7 T0 G8 s A0 wGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - ]5 z# M! @2 E/ O
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , S* G5 T8 M1 p# R8 f! h
& f/ y( b- h' c* K/ JUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 J4 I2 ^# m7 i" R& }
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". r: x' K5 W4 t9 h8 T / z0 Z0 w9 X/ m OIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ M* C* c* T0 C8 a, P" k4 K
& K8 F- C2 L7 zInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : N2 h4 q9 w0 Y; D) k( z' N& g# Q- ` h" b0 R
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 E8 y) f( ]0 J7 T0 b' _ y . n$ T: q5 x8 A& L& V0 d( |+ ?Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 {! q1 d( ^3 Q$ P$ {( E, W* r . d5 d r4 l& f5 o+ p. jThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
