+ o+ Z- F! o o/ x) j 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 r' P/ {6 Q' r
4 b# J- V1 }. k. C 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。6 f4 V. P4 x' A% \: u* R" `6 s
7 s% K1 `' h4 U* { 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。8 l7 E/ K) a, q4 z8 }$ Z: e
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 3 ]( a$ q6 J1 e6 }3 \/ I; C + ~1 o' U- K5 _ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 , e7 p1 y, t; m3 j2 S : O+ q7 _( Z: `（责任编辑：杨海洋） , Z2 @4 k3 y. u% S$ d( `; x3 g" p& s9 z/ n
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters + z, \* A: p! \1 F1 u ( `6 [; j0 f& ?& J b) pBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # Q; s7 s, V, e3 O8 s2 R" F" n1 \ A( y. I8 Q; `
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * e$ {2 L2 u: {" T) y: U* { ^& B8 e: T% v
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + M- G& g' Q- S
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. - S3 O8 k7 W. A3 x- L) h/ k
1 V! ]4 }0 a0 ?3 Z( p# kRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " V3 z2 T1 s$ Q
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 l; l: F$ X( `/ _- S" a1 @- l2 t( \2 B) x6 R! p! a
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * ^$ |$ o) H( \5 X" \9 N2 M' r3 J4 h8 b8 Y
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. q( e4 x# `; | , d. C) \% i7 G7 iIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 H9 D% M6 [% O9 x9 f5 U2 X g" n$ J( `3 V( ?
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + |. L- L9 o2 v! }; Y _: D4 O" F* d% S4 F1 p3 W6 S }, M
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 v( l$ Y; F6 w& M/ y
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + Z1 n) D+ j0 I" Y" t, _ I* Q % d) |/ N) f6 Y h6 `' p4 v3 kChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : Z% Z& z' a6 h! b" c- f% u. S 4 o9 c1 P+ ~4 NIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : w/ I( M9 Q% q
& h& }; ?9 C6 U- _4 \International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ?4 e" O5 d+ N1 ?8 ]3 T
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. R; o$ y: \# j1 L& {3 S' P 6 F, V) n% A4 Q4 ]Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 M7 ]6 u; Z5 U& A2 x! i4 h1 _7 R3 {
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
