外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 1 m# o$ D- V3 J: d, V3 ?' N2 Q t* M2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 . W6 @* z! y, G8 K6 F/ t 3 F0 o3 h* G( \8 T8 A& J9 x" _6 O 5 r* T- {& M8 v; V) P
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 8 f# x" y7 I% o& M0 @7 u / S: O7 S/ ` f/ {" N/ o+ w% n 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 / T. |2 O. \' k$ R0 K! S$ K8 M4 E
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。$ o- W) @" P0 P$ v
6 D/ r' E$ I3 h6 F$ K: s5 V 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ( N: z, c) }5 e1 Y2 [6 G3 v9 D- y) I( c
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 & J1 q4 x, c% [" J$ E 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 0 q# \9 P: Z: f" p3 L I+ p: q3 w% a! Y6 D
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: D" ?' y9 m# d" I' z( d4 M
1 w( u* N9 z4 q3 q （责任编辑：杨海洋）! I- f! @+ H* Z
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters . \7 c2 G# Y% D& b) e1 z * c" s. ]2 r6 e% [' oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 |0 h0 p8 B+ a0 h0 E# d( J, ?
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * j+ N8 W- L" W& Z: Z( P
# k0 z- o7 w, w9 m2 sLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 K m6 U2 H8 _) w/ r s 6 {' \0 ?% ~! {4 E8 d; ZAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % K/ j: [1 O0 E4 i9 ~
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 n2 ^# R% L; `* p+ T, R/ m
# }9 s+ A3 T+ b& y7 j! d, yFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 O5 v R6 `( u6 w9 C8 s
* X2 u4 ]1 G7 T- u, q5 Z. M3 lThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 A. R/ b/ _- s
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / N! C' ~$ N; ` 8 X' M. n% F$ o) _, I ~2 d1 RIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' B$ I/ M3 S/ A+ @; R1 P. S0 Y; K* p5 L
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # J( U$ g6 W: y! I3 n: j2 V3 _1 ^: ?# N
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 d% |' g \% C; F
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 [3 R1 P* }+ i. w' X5 k ( j2 H! p9 M4 n% V% Z2 V3 ]( ?China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; N t& ?) u. T) W) { / F: N* ?, u6 z7 ]4 ~, d! \If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . W) P7 V" w+ Y4 ?: J, T4 M9 N6 t
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! ]' f4 ^, U2 t1 V* x1 \8 Q& W4 b* U P9 J, M( A
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( p* q$ h# ^% y* L2 n& R5 i: a
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % f6 O. q+ v2 M E
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
