- Z7 x9 [' k/ f+ K 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 q* k3 h# p' Y- s6 w3 l! ]5 i% l （责任编辑：杨海洋）8 A1 a0 R5 Z% I# O, r9 @9 C
9 J2 j; k& g; e7 kRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: p# ]# @! D& }5 b
- N+ F. `/ q, L. @. L/ K* ABEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 q7 ^/ P6 d8 Z6 F' t
0 \4 N0 N5 r- w7 ~- f, u4 A8 G* @A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. b" Q1 b/ p- |
9 \; ?1 ]& M) D% `0 W" @' Y% L# LLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 U0 a- l6 [$ O, S% |7 F$ `0 V e; G+ U. H+ y" A1 d
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. [8 _- E4 ]( C8 v$ G3 Y2 x$ {
0 X- P1 d( O9 { I1 i! i$ G2 }$ lRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + n9 c2 }' L% k. e$ S$ b; T
' _/ q/ Y" B% \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 Z4 ^! O1 B8 l' j3 N. ~& f
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. , E+ I6 y' f9 \* q" s1 Y 1 |2 D/ M: ~- t"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - b+ E9 s& w x( a# y. W5 ` " B1 A; b) l! x: }In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % M0 l; V/ B! l0 P % l* _; ?% |, U$ ?; A4 eGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' d* m7 @! F7 D+ m% O , ]- K. M/ o6 yThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * ^. B5 G3 [& n% G; Z2 H
. ]! n" K# q2 @! t# j% G/ |Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - c. x8 {( S4 i& ?9 j
1 ~4 D9 [9 x8 j6 O/ a/ C9 v$ DChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 |& C* g( |& J/ r5 S
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 h6 f) ^3 I+ y/ I" _' K
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 f) h V" d3 M 5 d4 E) q8 y: @, P' i"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " {; o y! u7 Z* y
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 U/ `. Q5 T# S% u# a
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
