v% [. A8 N% A t& ~% Q4 J中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 Q- j/ T/ A! v
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 3 j. g* R# s; m) y$ N! U 0 w! \9 @/ D: B$ y: X 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 : f" X- w) P; v, a" ^4 u, p4 `/ {$ i
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 * h' N% Y7 [! \5 p1 Q" ^$ g. ?( O8 t, e& i & z" f6 H3 r3 E$ W7 X4 j! J 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。* X5 O; z' ?4 j! T; m
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 }. J Q8 {3 X% ~; t/ K, X 6 Q8 b- y9 N0 E' [# N* G 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 M7 L, Q3 n% u* K$ T0 @, \ & N- {) o$ |5 q) p' F9 r（责任编辑：杨海洋） . G& J. ~- ]- Q8 T( e& a5 B- P% u% [& w6 A
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters' N2 c; m" e: V: b1 P/ E1 r' D, y
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % ~: r- g; m1 G7 {: d" ~4 P
. C3 P% `: q8 M* m; M& AA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 O3 _; L( q, t( h1 T$ P# p/ k* ]& ] 5 o8 u j5 B- w; y M( _Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. r% R0 Y9 n7 v5 O! l( b) e2 K3 A4 G' c( t1 j- I+ C9 d7 V
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 {: L k/ Y" G$ Q
1 N' V, N1 N3 A7 g3 ~, ?Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & K0 j& w# i0 _% `) r
; h! h; F4 S0 q- D: JFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : Q+ L1 T7 e' ]: Q7 G4 ]+ w
" g7 F( A2 E3 \( g' ?, V- |This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( R- J+ H: Q% Z3 i0 }7 K2 W ! w9 ]0 A+ t& m% w( g3 y& W"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " y: i: N' v7 d$ s7 ? t$ O& g2 X0 b% l: ~! r: i$ q4 [. W. P
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ }' a; O1 ~6 o9 l9 S) q, u# ]
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 w1 S' _$ i, s6 n; O/ ^! m; w4 @ ]& U7 h) @/ ~- O+ l% c! M2 D
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + b2 b0 \7 {) ~7 G9 R+ e6 E! b 0 C" E+ s L) W$ U# kUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 g+ z& g7 I& y3 d' r1 }* p, V% L+ j. q9 W- z
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' M7 ]$ _ q4 x9 k 4 d2 ~ f$ e! G- wIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * ~% o* t, z; g d& G" [+ T( `0 |& o" r$ _" m) ^7 ?( r
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * S+ |3 c2 x* w# e - |" W7 T T x4 K"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / x% E- u# `4 n; Z A8 t7 K9 g- z
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' Z5 A( J. K5 P# X
" a m$ w. j) h. U: F b, aThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
