外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ! J+ J) F1 F P( O) D0 ^2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 r3 Z4 p& E; g: F& M" a9 s7 V% V' s: d/ }; V, d
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ! h" ?/ b' c* q& p4 F( }% T* z7 } 7 F3 D! `$ {5 n) G ^) o 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ( b$ e. y, p( d5 f 9 d+ ^% h6 D1 ]$ c1 I% l9 { 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 5 `! N: x# t8 F3 K" f- a. N- ^( w 6 V0 a8 K. {, D, X7 ` 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。& T3 J0 \# ^3 [% [' @' M
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。) w& B$ t: ?1 O- O- p- i+ `
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。$ L Z2 ]6 r2 D" i
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 z! N/ P1 d" s- l* ^/ |9 H8 ?, U' ~6 u （责任编辑：杨海洋） * D, H" Y! [. g: |' i; J ]6 D7 d O7 @
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 |0 n! k- v6 H: l8 p" z! ] H6 k 6 w2 u Z7 l( _5 h' fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 G7 M. e" a# c9 T9 Z7 k+ Q ; ~. ^* {: ]" a3 t. {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' ~3 {" [" r( J , F, F/ t2 K7 f+ sLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & ]* ^! Q) P7 E0 ~1 L% h4 l: ` % v r. k& i6 {* _After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 h6 ~/ {; _( f
2 z8 L4 t% H. p( r3 uRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' T& z7 |+ P5 E0 V; K
# ]. u9 \$ A1 xFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( @2 p& t* x8 U# f / N3 ]8 j4 K0 S* U1 VThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. , [" V$ P& \/ ? % k: t, v5 R& Q) I% T" ^0 W"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * `. n* X2 H7 Z o6 F
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % S6 @ O2 C! g3 F1 ]5 ^1 z2 K1 F * y* V% w1 Y* \8 |9 @Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 V" z0 _( ^6 E6 L6 ?
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 s0 X" x, o/ H* L, B
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / ^4 Z4 b) V0 ^( R6 O1 y& }6 g. H% C0 @5 N
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ) e/ d% N5 [- t3 ?
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' y' O8 A# g* I4 N# N" a" J4 M' k, c, @
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 [# ~$ d) D& D. q6 A: x j
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 d' `$ G* r. U3 W6 d: T7 M1 L) p6 Z* s4 c. {
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 L! W3 S; Y# W. {
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
