% v# Y2 v. M- t W5 _$ S! m中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 7 U2 B" ^& j" O / Q, Q: @* M* X' n) X 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。# ]! n/ U1 p, x. o0 o* @
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 X* y9 x4 M; K+ f( p8 }$ m; s. S+ T$ @9 Q) S: ]
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。4 S( m% z8 v# s' n1 w' h
7 w6 J! e* T7 w1 T2 f3 O9 n3 C- N 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 : E( k. K# P9 d4 I, } 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。- J; t2 k# s3 x" C1 Y5 c" s8 Q
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' M' y2 Y# n; P( L
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( ]; _! S# k$ bRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters% D0 P0 ^; |2 T
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & L9 n- } Q8 _$ \( S8 I/ F: Z/ A & x) Q' q$ a7 D! l( q" {! fA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; Y+ a' ^: u+ ? o% z& T& o& B
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " w% }/ _' f# B" L/ x& P * i2 F) K) z) p6 F) r) Z* G' OAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 S( {, N0 U# E% Q 0 a4 [' z5 t7 R u( o& ~6 G) DRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 f9 t) S4 s5 s" p9 ~$ {
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / N/ c; y$ d2 T4 r4 u4 g" C. d; g) o# C/ ~0 B7 f- A
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 Z4 N1 O9 B# |, n" F1 p " n3 u, h' n4 i: H"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % V, q1 w. |- U3 j - x& x8 D/ c9 {8 a$ u+ v0 ?4 DIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % {# c! ]6 F) G$ S2 ~0 s+ y- i: R " h! t6 J: s$ P8 s0 ?% L- c/ ~Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ n3 q! p0 l& z2 ]+ o* J8 e) u/ F4 U" k6 N7 `6 z
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 d5 [8 n) @" [/ Z! p$ R# I" }- z* m$ O0 j, g
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 v' B* V0 z1 P! s# X+ T
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + H) C1 t. f5 B U/ \3 a" v( C) U6 ?, G' Y4 V- N
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. Q0 u" M" D. M- m4 v
1 y2 A# l. T7 g' G) y. B& F0 pInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : P* i0 n% V/ H0 i/ V/ t" { G9 W. d: Z" D5 f"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . Y! i7 R2 u$ c ! s2 a0 x+ u( X5 c9 P0 H/ iGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 s3 I& C, v0 J7 ^( |) B( j 4 C5 e% w. b; w- h; A! yThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
