外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 & f5 S8 n( `, y7 y: x' d2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ! {7 t) e5 s8 ]6 K 9 i* H7 ~- K' V1 \ ' [; E: c; [- E( Z! ?* j' A; V" q
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ! [" t4 p/ s( R4 y# c+ R# y g+ F3 O; S- X P! v2 V/ V
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 R6 U0 d E7 [9 H1 }' H0 O, Y2 N. h3 ?- j7 S, h L" i
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& s- q7 m9 @" B1 c! D
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 6 L5 ~8 B5 `" N5 |" i) l) E- r2 r; f, z3 j2 \7 h2 Y, c9 g# B% B
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 . T4 g R5 v0 O: Q/ L7 h% p u& ] 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 ^+ _& d7 x& Q! T @( o
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% W) _3 b# G( C4 c
( n' i) e" T3 y( o0 i（责任编辑：杨海洋） : d- B/ W9 W% B6 `7 H0 D 7 I$ G' K W2 p$ M4 x% V! S4 bRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" A; o- P8 e/ E* w( m
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; F) A U. f5 C
' J: G' Z. q! N* P1 Z3 wA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 w5 g+ l4 R+ {4 N2 b( R
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ O1 q3 S I+ b& f2 G
7 H* r6 x2 @! q5 D$ s2 jAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / }6 Y9 R/ y; X. l2 Y
; F- g h% x2 N3 b* n( ]" F- oRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 w8 P% j7 o$ m) [ # A" d, x5 U1 h3 J7 C& j$ v5 H5 t; ?First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + c$ |- W+ q8 B% x4 Q, M
: ?1 x( L: t/ @+ M( @6 h+ ]4 hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; j0 s3 S9 E6 a$ r6 v1 n ( K: _7 M$ j2 y- r"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( f' r5 N' e6 s0 ]. Z& e M- {9 m
/ Y1 f" f- \# v- ?5 T& `In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * m+ E% U2 ^ a( c0 @) i/ E& l: b6 z. H5 _
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & K X: ~- d' W( u" O
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 z3 c- p5 i. U6 M. w) b- l! |2 q8 M# p4 ?7 _2 ]
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 E8 B9 n+ l8 P& n
. T+ i* r* E+ W& d& y5 jChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 s$ C1 ?* b4 j9 z
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 d" k' z7 v$ e. W$ S% Z1 h
4 g/ c5 g$ V w, kInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 ^. i( c; r9 G' K) k! p `+ s2 I2 _1 W4 V# Z
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 e) E& ?" d' j- e8 ~7 f% P0 v5 P' e" B0 r9 O$ O, i$ \! k& ]
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - s& V. P+ v$ s9 n/ T6 d8 {+ a4 C5 Y* ~; m9 ~
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
