外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年' k2 V5 _+ h3 \7 k
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 5 k; H1 A) Q+ O( i4 V1 G7 G% ~, W/ u( K( j- E
" c% c- i# ^5 |2 }) A' N; W中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。) Z D- k( n% t2 A
3 U0 x* _. K3 H7 N8 p! R8 K) R 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 + a+ S+ R0 S; z: _) P1 Q! Z; O# U( M# u" H8 J: J. b; v
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 . w- f' }4 Q4 J3 s6 U! R; D - `3 { C* e1 a' L) e 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, D7 m: J+ J/ | t! {
. e2 S1 }% r# s 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! s' r1 E" q5 O' E4 M8 e2 |
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 f% s, A& c* P
9 k# ^- `) z/ S1 V v0 R: ~ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 y5 C) J. ^, X - a n8 I1 I: `（责任编辑：杨海洋） " D+ B: N& B& R3 ]( m7 e7 |: h " _ Y. t3 J( Z/ z9 M! ^6 `Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters & B" B7 Z5 i$ B/ S7 c1 F+ l* B) ~- }* j
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 Z! R8 S- A3 D/ z! Q
4 P' W$ t- Y5 t4 T4 S
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ o9 _3 G4 U; G$ \
! V8 D" r0 n# }" ELet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! a% s2 ^" D5 L3 b0 }% h8 y5 F# G. J9 G! u
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; a' _; X/ M4 b: m$ G ! f6 N3 {# L1 O( pRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 ^/ v+ U, A# F+ Z- j
8 w7 t& H1 c3 h! V, U! `5 V. t7 Z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 \& N4 x% D, _9 X) s( f) F9 {. A% X% j
& h8 G0 b( P: X( O( q/ F! ?0 h
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 E* l/ N6 U# y3 y3 R3 @& I
! V& j- a# B" K) o) O"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 ]; Y) c: Q: R* N* z* v
0 E4 Q6 W$ r4 K i4 ~* YIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 t6 N: J: B6 D/ D5 l) z
" j! S! h, j$ m& a, I
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 S" [8 m5 W& B8 v1 } P
' O* U5 F" W+ JThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 g/ e. ?6 P" f4 @. \/ `0 _6 d4 c7 ^ f- ]; Z" @7 A: {& r/ |/ m
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . o# z7 O9 |1 i
?2 X+ z: w9 }" k' M; QChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' Z/ m' `) Z, h$ p2 g' R; {) c+ Z1 \& `2 q$ j1 |0 ?! [
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( p: T! i5 A& @3 W: ^4 C + p+ A* J# \1 Q/ Q( R- SInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 [' ~/ T( I0 V6 V. f) n / ~9 o0 G0 Q9 b- g) c3 X* p"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 W6 |& p% f' S
7 Q' B# q" [5 H5 k! |0 Y
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 f- g& q- L" W! a7 u # O2 ?0 z! W0 T% ]Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
