外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年1 G& t- J$ l. u
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 6 t. ^$ u7 r _3 y5 q 4 ^1 C. R7 R a; p1 y1 d & w& o( i! }8 D b/ T
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。6 F' P1 y% x! f. B$ z
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 / |& P3 [( i) h , H" H! Z6 ~! C7 k- a9 ~- u# W 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 5 w/ l: S8 ?+ l9 _ 4 a; ^2 w _, H: ^ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 m! E% m: z6 w4 r8 g
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 / ]' I* o0 W, `6 ]$ O/ M) s2 T 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 z- i! A9 t# q+ `4 M) e; F+ F& c+ K+ }+ Z$ X
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。" d- s; s3 X; y
* P9 u. L9 q; C2 w （责任编辑：杨海洋）) d1 ]) ?6 R+ D; V( z
- D4 |# [" e8 F8 v5 Q* e1 F, l URunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 V' H; d F. ~, {2 V
6 d8 p9 g9 \2 C- ABEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # c9 y3 Z5 U0 j4 H+ F* B# `
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ) c% ?% t6 v, B1 A* y/ ^( X " {; m' _ @4 ^Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . M% ?+ W5 E; j
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + W' i- y4 q( T6 `$ ]
3 U1 X1 _7 L, Q# T! p' Y8 e3 TRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : B' q; B. U0 u# f 7 J" I) J+ [4 W8 w9 Q0 u3 H' B& ZFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 n9 r- g+ V! x2 ~7 P9 l) z e* ^
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 1 O8 B* T) Q, w R7 l; w- R/ g& @ d9 w
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. t" y0 ^% t5 s. V
; X! l5 j5 L! ~) K( c) ^: mIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - r% Z8 M s6 a. y
, m- q5 c; S5 M2 U( d, I1 z' |! ^Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 L3 ^7 C% w% Q* _5 ~ O 0 Y' s4 C" D, o! HThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * s1 D) j$ a6 C , e D- S0 J9 q) m: jUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / W/ W- \& i1 ~% ~
( j) v' V- E# f/ |China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ W% u# g8 ~$ H! o4 }0 r- ]1 k6 J# m) p
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 A3 L5 P! }. b( C* [9 x
7 G- i5 h: y" a' \" iInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * I) J/ V/ C- @( r5 \7 ]( w" D& H* n8 D2 X- J9 I
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + H& \ ?& ]+ X; D- U, J, }- s$ H; q) q& h. Y% Y
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , P. {. m9 l* Y7 m n1 y- b, x b. x' {( o& `
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
