外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ! K) p# q7 k& }8 H2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 % D. U) J2 \' i* ]3 q9 x, `- A# I8 T. ^1 J9 { Z1 R" x
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 " c/ }" [+ V# S( M 8 a/ T. y( m& \% U6 u* U5 s6 b: o 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 3 [% ] u6 _* _, [ g& H% l$ Y, P$ ~ m r: |: R
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 2 U9 a* w8 J8 e6 b. W9 U+ J 2 U+ d! ^- {' S/ J1 H u. G; \ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 p0 M2 o7 {& M* Y" B9 X) o
8 L) \ D7 \- o 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' Y# C! Y9 W( X 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 X1 G+ ^: W2 ~ B/ t- U
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) b, V$ h, k. s8 |9 i) v p& {5 Z; I3 T Z2 _8 y （责任编辑：杨海洋）9 N& O$ l, y/ l s
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters * C2 m' ?3 g6 S6 g2 P2 T5 G; z& n' w; R0 c
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 j4 u }- c. y, g
3 f+ M# M7 l e% F) w9 W& OA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " [1 Z! M$ t, H7 u6 t* e
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) O/ F0 k ]! d% a4 N$ f4 @ g5 A
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( e' I4 X d+ [% ~
2 v. b$ C& h. X3 F4 ?6 bRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 w! N$ Q- A8 d% u3 ~3 i+ q
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' `* D: j* G" o
% V* S7 t" D' M4 c7 p8 D' s. ~This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : n" ^% z3 w. e: L7 f; X, r9 ?# K) ^1 m# B. _
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , i3 i2 T7 I6 L
& T O+ N5 w& y; B* U8 X9 QIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ o; I* N3 \# S+ Q
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ ]; E: {* O ~6 @ % {) U" ]* z& F) c3 xThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 |$ `; p: ^* U' J- d. r6 G, m \! }
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 Z' H* V2 j7 ~
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & h# Z5 H5 _3 P. a0 ~& [7 @) @, J1 s. K- H
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. o& ^1 k' b. ?% A, U0 W
" T; Y8 G% Z& `2 Z5 G3 DInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) Y/ a; W4 C% M% K" G) {4 ?! n
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . f$ w l+ k6 L4 H+ T5 c8 O7 k/ A 0 n% x5 ]0 P! `! s' `& Z0 x' T9 ~8 YGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 K7 p- A, g2 ^
: o$ ? y3 g J, g: i* a) QThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
