外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ) @0 D) t1 N9 ^% @) X( W5 ~0 r2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 7 h1 L! k2 T2 A1 s: D0 U2 g+ L " {! b& {. K$ r: h- F 0 J9 Y W1 E+ R中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 0 \0 K h# U" F3 J! O0 y7 L5 ^4 E, E! j8 N
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 n$ ~1 E; r6 s8 e ?5 ?9 s' H 8 S0 ?+ b4 F$ v% a 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & q; H/ n) l. {9 }& K' j, L2 [/ K6 \4 R
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 s0 j' E( p5 ^+ o7 ~) }
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。" |6 k/ s9 M- C; f1 B
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * E% `/ ?# p3 q9 t0 y5 b6 L, X" w# _: h. S/ g# ?
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 $ x) e2 W/ S: E; G 0 v3 j n7 B0 y& N, y& {（责任编辑：杨海洋） 8 @2 ^! a7 C% S; Y! M2 L, Z* h2 h% h8 t [0 K% J
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters% y2 ]* s2 X0 v4 Y/ q/ H+ H
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( Y$ f* |* f! q7 }7 H# X8 a- T" I4 `* g5 a6 O* j% T
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( c+ r2 r. i. v, x8 K0 G, {0 h+ g/ b- i) I) B. [/ W
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 ^: X# Y/ U# ^/ W# U2 W/ D5 O% \9 c6 W7 {9 k! R1 }: W2 F6 ~9 ^# {
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 D! V6 ]& `" S% a+ }( w' x
) {! o& h# h8 K/ d; ORoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 t! B+ ^0 s7 a+ K/ [+ o
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 D& [% e' V0 V) h: N! o. C) W . Q$ p4 g& T& ^' p9 Q3 H. A. wThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # ]! f7 o7 x7 `5 z# d* J3 H2 r+ W8 [$ ]. ^
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . X& `9 S: P* p# J- q. ^
" [ N( R4 d2 x% G/ [In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 O4 |6 I7 b, u* f; e$ ` [ 2 ` f- [. j& V t3 n! {, mGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 x. R/ Y- X, W) o0 M/ E% o" L! f: f& g1 g7 v0 t# s2 z
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( f# L* h( `! n7 w
4 ]: i* b1 z) V- VUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / ^8 D% \ R9 D! C7 R' a
) H' C$ k+ C9 s) j" l& fChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , f" \2 n* I2 ~0 o; Z) f 7 O* ~# ]$ Y3 c1 E( gIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . o) y4 w+ X, S" ]% y- _2 O& V: L& ` O' n( e1 u$ w% Y* S' G
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * U' E$ [+ o. b4 v1 {" ^2 @! x" {4 j - |4 P& `; t/ r+ K"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) o( m9 K, J8 }# x
& a! _" \' C6 Q7 g/ ^Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / |9 Y3 M. P9 V3 I' F, w9 z9 r( R! ^5 W( I# b! p* {/ A
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
