外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 % [" ^. S4 E2 V3 g2 \2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞+ `& R. ?5 D6 B. @" E8 r
' R6 O9 G6 l0 D
( Z2 f6 m E' \/ |" b
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 / n9 {! b0 f, Y( p 7 }3 I% K o9 G! { 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 & y- u# f! V: N/ b0 Y# |4 s 9 A0 {5 ~5 L, ^5 | 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 0 o/ s% W' U% X6 u/ |9 F. J, b4 p3 @: [( U
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, O# p/ F3 v* N3 Q0 y" }0 t% S, o0 x
$ u k3 j) @' `1 Y8 N7 b 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 % {9 w0 `% [& k8 o9 ?, W 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5 X! d. L" d: E
1 T$ q( l: w3 y& n6 a- A+ ?, y 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 - Y( R' b) ~: y7 k* ]1 b' N' A 4 ?6 \" _3 U! c7 `& K4 U9 Z: Z（责任编辑：杨海洋） ! w# Q' O* b" g9 W. I0 b. O 4 A- y/ u U! ^0 a2 Q6 I& E7 L( URunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& A9 n9 ]- t3 S
% n% x1 s+ f& `) GBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' \; {6 V& r q* |/ P& h" c5 z " Q) J. n0 I0 fA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; e! k( {- ?' h w L
! S9 T. y3 @7 F- u% v- T
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; k2 g# c! X4 L- g6 G$ x' R
) G" F- t. J8 A0 e; S4 ^: i
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 t2 x3 Z4 A0 w, X/ I ( o# ?4 T; g$ P* ~5 ^( z2 \Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " t5 v0 F! u r8 a3 D
! l) H) F: d6 T# ]First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. & Q% o$ t7 H4 ~2 O2 l4 T8 B/ W. w. U# ?1 w
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; y' |, M h! o: [* ` `7 C' \- {* r( d7 K"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 | L p _+ F8 P3 P' Q
2 @5 w- B. S# b, a5 O8 l) E' ?In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. Y7 S9 G' m2 y. h R
/ _: s1 g/ O3 ^ `. dGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 `" h# C3 a4 P' w1 E T( o9 e% I: O% ?4 H
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 e% \# b. R* W" P ) A9 {+ u$ V7 \7 DUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - T6 u5 \, A2 ^ c. Y0 @4 ?# M: l8 p# O
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " t0 p$ ^ t, [# Q% D9 E- m. [% `+ _ i3 ^5 s9 K" D
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 v7 X8 e3 J7 y- n
. e9 n* A- u- U- F5 M
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + i) e" Q, @ ^- P+ k
: x( V* I. c: Z"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % q4 b$ s1 r+ l! M) ~3 @- c) r8 n$ T- @& }, w: _
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , w1 F! i( t/ H6 X9 m' \: ~4 s" t3 Q5 l9 i' `
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
