. K* f+ a& W$ R# m7 Y1 d2 u 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* I! [6 t5 M, k: b
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 t+ L- V. i- X# {$ Z+ o9 P/ a. f: a5 ?4 K5 z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。- O( q9 z; O! J p8 `
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。) v( a% c( S) {4 [8 j
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + `+ b+ m' d* K+ `; Z3 ? & R2 M$ d s9 D1 E# [" |( @- o, ? 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% n0 c8 T v* l1 ~
& h$ T/ ^3 s0 q% T0 t （责任编辑：杨海洋）1 [/ x8 P) p6 @; O' F T
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 2 l: R8 i: Y, `, f # T) Z* f! x( rBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % t! D- A9 h: k" v8 B/ V & w. ]6 O9 E5 W+ K6 MA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 \& e. B& T7 T# E8 a
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - i, Z8 f W8 S( w. |; H3 [: h; E% D& k b i' T
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : f5 e, f& }6 n- P! V
- g; b8 D3 u+ d# lRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + f: G" @ @# N g _% _
! b& o5 d0 P9 n6 {+ r$ bFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 \* `1 K+ g/ x; r6 I5 o3 k$ ]/ v9 ]# L4 ~' {
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # V# @% w& T7 P, ?0 z( W ) e! u) L# k8 d. G"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 w2 U2 V% e) B2 U; \! y% p! u$ ^ 8 G/ y7 P: q6 \- j' T6 E2 @In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + D7 \, ~% l& \: o
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' Z, E. \' ]2 u9 r l3 {( E7 F- l1 [* G! O0 t H
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - ] l8 {1 \, c# D- w) z! p+ b j2 M: a
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 h% Q' I, R5 o
- t( N; f6 \' [- f: TChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 d: L# }1 h! [2 M
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 2 P, ?5 J, M" Q( J* ^! y- c- l2 D2 C8 _
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ u7 b" k1 _/ q7 Z# K
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , `" j$ L8 l5 L+ M4 ^* Q& k 7 l t0 F( r) Z/ _$ d5 r4 L$ }Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 B: ]7 d4 K4 s. L- T5 {* K
