外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年( s8 E( D) ~7 F! @. l
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 4 L2 u$ p* B+ H. Z; a6 _8 d; q5 c4 R
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 * C, q' S2 l4 H7 } # B0 I2 f# i1 \* ? 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 B% H. T, |, | t* F8 S$ d$ Q2 A
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 8 {6 p: i: t4 X) J X0 ?, O+ t. O3 ^- q) v, T
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 U" ~9 Z3 A m 5 J% k! A+ K" I s 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 2 t! d4 B- w4 ~. Y% U/ A1 q1 H& K' s 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。8 w$ u; H7 _/ C: |+ E
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。4 \9 x; e; J9 E- c d1 q+ x
7 t/ }* \# x$ R# L（责任编辑：杨海洋）6 X& K6 U$ D4 k
$ S: w1 E# Y. R: Q) _Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 m+ V5 Q! ~0 K8 h6 j: A/ h [" z
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 g8 X# ]1 F* L- a6 }' L . N2 u+ p2 |, N% e; i( mA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 {, n; k: k6 u/ F3 d
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / `$ p: }# p! |6 E
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : f0 C, f: A- U 3 R9 s6 n1 h* G0 K- K0 X+ kRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / v2 M" A* _. A4 {# V5 _ 9 b' D# V/ Z: Y/ ?+ ]First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . [5 O0 S T3 Y- K w; A
+ k, y0 _. y+ L0 sThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' k5 a2 M' K% B& u: }4 ^: v2 F & }, p$ u( J6 f- S1 Z4 T"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 ?" B4 H) J8 f* d0 d+ _: c- }7 z! q8 o+ W: z j' q' q" j) ^) d( W
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( P, l+ B! L2 h& a7 S$ U* s, S: ~
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! b+ ~$ C Y$ T( t" i
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 {9 }2 Z+ X. m% m2 \/ F# f
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 ^2 A9 J) x" N+ H+ B: v0 z' y 7 f6 U# K# j$ S6 B' m2 CChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ) w; g& X. ~- w5 Q3 N
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. U/ L* X* H0 O% ?. u, c
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 T6 {" I" y9 d0 m8 Y, h7 h- m, @/ F% ^" O4 P
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - ~! j0 `& d9 G0 ~, ^( T% n) U8 w- o% `) ?* C) r' { ]+ N
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 l6 h6 q8 Q2 O4 T# j6 g5 H1 U! T* z
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
