外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 : y3 w9 E. B3 b* A2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞# [" a3 I+ B4 f# w8 W1 c+ N
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。: ]- c; L+ A7 u: ]# ]: t
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 `5 D( t( i$ k1 k5 I% J# R5 e6 o* i. e( q+ W7 U
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' C3 U3 b& M' y7 J8 b" R4 I* f3 e3 y9 h" p, ^1 j( n& d
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 3 w9 Z4 [% l4 B7 u% i- N6 D. c( g7 @ " i* W( k+ ~& r6 p; Q I 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 # D' V3 }6 I. h% h* {( t; p6 ]6 \5 I 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + B: d! {# i8 T. ~" z. X8 [- K/ P' g- P9 X0 E$ A% M1 J
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! R8 j1 X: Q6 H8 l1 j
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, W: q- \2 a2 f2 e+ y
, |. [: q2 W- [, Q( S, Q7 }- ]BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( ~8 G1 X7 O+ v @/ p & |% J7 I/ D5 G" Q w, I0 fA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ E: s$ b0 a2 c3 {
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - v2 z0 o/ X7 D( c6 `1 \7 S * b! ~9 ^' M9 j0 c. IAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " Z1 ~ r9 k$ @/ K
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 T, S& h+ c9 T6 _* `1 t$ D4 Z [+ \+ q8 B8 L1 L2 `! B6 u
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " G7 ^8 S; M2 o, \4 M' q3 s. R7 b5 N& N# o! U& Q; \- r
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 h& I h/ w( k: _/ E/ p6 ?! g( q
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " h# T/ f6 @; t9 C5 p
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 ?5 x3 A5 f N* [) q: Y& r6 Q9 A4 U7 c0 J& g; M
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. P- l6 f: i8 K& n; a0 T' A; {, \; T, r5 h6 h6 n+ T) T
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) W+ |3 G+ m" c( U
* ]2 r! R" v5 h& B# r+ HUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) m4 f' A% t# V2 D2 z% C& g! {2 a, U7 ?( H9 W/ y2 @6 V
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - o- z* ~- |, k) ?$ _. C; w1 O: q8 z0 t1 |: P, w) L
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : }, V) N3 R2 E5 ?2 j' m- Q4 Z1 Z6 z6 x5 L% p
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % S* ?3 C/ P" Y" }, u# S" T( {5 S; W
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 F( b2 S$ B r- v( t* K P+ [6 t) R) C6 {1 H7 S; ?
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 v, A* h4 y; B! U7 T( ~2 A3 y4 {. f7 k9 o" {
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
