4 y4 S1 o8 r+ D7 I 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ W; q; ]) o2 Z& c( D% d: x. v& f 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。; j1 R5 X4 f5 B. a1 D
/ u, l" b7 L8 u; K 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ C( W2 x* z- z8 O
+ n; d0 G* d3 G! k {3 \ F; C（责任编辑：杨海洋） ) f5 J, ]; t& s; A8 _2 K% G- y4 b6 r }; r, l8 }/ G
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 3 f3 C- d) W2 ^! Y) Q& ^: D A# {7 d) e
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : a* Y+ A8 Q4 p0 \4 {2 _- q' q
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : e- z( D! t3 b + I) c- g" \' ^ Z6 ELet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' S ]1 h1 Y; q
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . s, A% W: h' G/ j% ?1 f8 V
0 _1 E5 c0 W& x/ i( M; T4 NRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 z: G* [! g( Z% \% ~; v/ J
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 [$ R0 ]) G6 Y
/ H' s; q6 {+ F4 `( BThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & z Y9 q; p7 s& h, f4 R- l% e- m1 N4 B
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - d$ U+ I5 M; z3 x% D" I : I+ u1 n2 [! p5 B) mIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " `- n- x/ s1 X) V+ [/ p/ o
5 e5 H# V+ l& xGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 |# L, r8 _. q& Q' I
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + V5 m% w$ u2 W, O: p! j! Z
+ I7 y# C0 x+ @' R1 i0 fUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 {0 M# J# i" l! F6 z4 z/ r5 f2 f0 W6 K& `5 S; s0 _( q
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 t' Y$ V, C3 `# x* N0 z0 [8 e+ v4 I& P" B% U/ B
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 y r1 u$ `2 o
$ O" D5 j) }5 T/ w$ d9 X0 H7 G" m) tInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! j1 N5 r7 Y% Y- g; r) o% t y( D
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - J8 _3 @+ U7 e4 R: |2 v9 w1 F
* x9 y% d z1 i% n$ r$ K. N) TGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 Z$ P- x# ]% u* R/ P" J$ c/ y- ^ " I+ T4 w+ }1 ?" B' x! F) Y* }Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
