! S J3 E" K& h& S) s" o. m8 [ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。0 C; b# C6 i/ D. ? c
% s* i. H3 P0 y/ t5 JRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ `7 E5 H7 x. l7 P! I6 E- V. c
5 X) _+ Q! q7 F$ y2 M6 fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 Z" |: z6 J$ s* \
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * @0 ~* i9 ^4 J$ r& n/ a. M0 {5 | ?: j
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 i( A, R6 h( I0 i, f 5 G+ L% [8 z4 i% P: ~After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! c1 h* ?, \9 C: K) s) h: J) c4 l/ X G4 ]: b
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 e1 W- t/ c# i; ` 7 T5 X7 e% r% u, l ^First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * R' t/ [2 s e* y1 ?8 x1 J
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - B* l% R6 f3 e. o. b) f " w, P( U! t& D6 R* A" K4 a"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 v0 K6 n0 H) `: G% [' }* {% z! g& H, D! T8 x2 |# X
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( b {; u' Z# e; R5 x/ Z0 k1 D; n- S: e. H: S
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 d5 J# g" s& V4 K 0 J6 a/ o8 E# f( E S0 fThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 c; Q5 F- X; H( g) L! m) {
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ `" z/ l: R3 G/ v# o' t- S* x4 q: O- V
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 R, L4 B4 r% l. V/ I
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & Q- w+ V6 u( g1 k! ?' s2 T. s+ C$ Y; I' r
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' X- C4 P& }- ]9 `
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 u. h/ | Z; l; @# N
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( N; W+ P: a3 L& S1 v3 v
. E2 D( _, z. g JThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
