外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 9 ?" Z: H1 J( w* ~$ p2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞. B/ g' [& m. s0 t
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% c G' l, e0 o' c9 S i g中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。4 d3 M' R- Y: t# `" z
% U& x5 E- z! t1 \$ ]+ n* }: W6 \ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 * x$ g+ M! I6 @ 4 E% ]9 X6 r# a7 O 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 , R) f5 x/ o' g1 o8 z/ ?7 ~# H1 W; `1 {- {7 A1 z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 9 Q' G' d& Z3 |+ w* y+ F: M }( {7 ~7 l& H' d' T
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, g, S* y- n4 O
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ) z# H" z# \3 p! q, a / I: f% m# i: } }/ j& W 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 4 `. w8 x* { r8 r2 O O9 t l/ W+ l/ H) u （责任编辑：杨海洋）: y" \9 q$ B: r+ R2 A
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, J6 r, v( g. ]/ Y8 i
( H' a1 G# r) `+ qBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 h4 b7 l: M9 [" V& A7 l* \/ F& ]* c( K
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; S( V' b+ `" b+ q( e% B* f2 L+ V: F* M9 S7 C- Y
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * H1 y3 J8 i. z; Q( \! W- O
+ Z4 j: W& W* P! j4 H5 t) V; bAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , c9 w. M9 B& g$ i W7 F3 d
, k( T1 E' R3 }; ~) [( sRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 L L' s: Q! s7 ?/ x7 y# T5 L9 M& G9 D" C' ], ~* U# F, I5 I
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) A. |' s. ?7 q; Y" B6 @5 v8 r- @8 ^, v
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( M1 L3 `* H) W ; U \8 s+ k9 S$ q6 l+ Q: {) O"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 {) k7 N8 J( }! f4 G3 C2 d% f+ t7 ^) E$ e
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. L, @# {3 Z$ a9 s
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . m$ h8 m& u9 P5 q5 S& E' {! p / {% K( b2 h2 ^+ S! q8 X! \That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' y$ P+ t& O& V9 v1 i' b. A& A# _. T' f0 m2 z! F
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 c4 \; V4 X4 t. r, o+ ]! W
( Q2 ~$ m; _4 ]5 AChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + ^1 I1 ~1 |6 O) h9 c$ P$ Q d: s& l; [/ u V
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 ~' O* C# a- x! \9 R ' q# e& T4 q+ c WInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( h2 s3 M- `; O ( h* W# c) o4 c4 U" U% T! {: _"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. A$ F- i! E& M' J7 v5 ~( R! H1 o( `7 H' T$ b7 i1 R5 o1 o" f9 D
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 n9 C7 a0 F ~ ) @1 }+ ~. U" E5 ?: ^" h; |Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
