外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ' j/ S' C8 O) l2 C2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞. Q1 A8 x% _; s" U
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。0 U j* m p( q% k6 ^% \6 G$ B6 o
- T* u4 C+ _3 r, q! T3 f 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 + }; U C$ W& r+ a) x ^" j ( x2 Z6 B. ]6 O0 P" D& I 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。# }3 R/ ?7 P2 V& x6 ^+ O, m8 Z9 o
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 M- Y- L7 Q2 Z6 w( n, X7 C* o; ]: X4 n2 @: k# }/ ~
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。1 O7 ]! h- M9 ~ v4 W5 w
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。3 F) U) L0 l7 C; X6 O b$ s: S2 T
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 E: `& _! U1 {1 _$ e1 J7 Y. @( d $ C# V# u4 L, L" |8 }. P* r2 }8 w, E0 c（责任编辑：杨海洋） ; e/ w+ _, s& E1 z 1 _2 A' Q' g+ `3 WRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters2 U9 x2 v% T( b: V) a/ x; X
8 a* |/ k" s0 H. S: dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( C; c; A, _" K$ k, z I4 k- s' N
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - S2 C! A- n6 V2 R9 P- V. M
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 [: r2 h# i& c/ T- a9 e% D: I3 y, d( t: Q8 c2 |
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 g, A( g7 S3 m% t0 r, E* L
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * S3 P* M# v. ?( J' ~2 n
! A6 J1 C: ~% }- H) W4 G7 PFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - f9 M( Z2 t5 X# Q: s
) j8 J$ ]6 F. b) ~: BThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. Z q$ C# o9 M/ a: U2 j, j
; M4 v9 `5 J/ }$ D"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ~4 x2 B7 x( P8 E
8 O0 k* {; t- O, Y* VIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 Q) g1 ^$ O; N2 o* o j4 K. ~# X5 [3 M+ qGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * A& I& U; T+ ?$ j( e/ j0 O
. O5 D/ c# x* g* U6 v y) h; S* n- K# vThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 \5 Y( u' S! C) l( L6 E& u
( X8 F, j6 o i6 ~5 V2 l; JUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 k1 I' q$ X X! ~+ x1 Y ; [* ^& B7 k! m- M7 W# ]China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " Y, G/ C1 b* r! p7 s! J: I& \; ~) O; ^- w9 D: z
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 O( S4 I4 [. K' t
/ i* b" w; t8 b* H, U- IInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . W5 m6 a4 \( F* J8 L2 U
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 i' \) M' v# }1 _
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 U; ]) i9 Q# O- y2 I2 a$ ^# x
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
