+ H! m( Y4 k* ]& p" d: i ; a" N1 [5 h2 w中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 , d. j; ~1 M t) N, e2 c3 h, F' P0 f+ a' u7 \
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % Z3 ~: l/ o% [/ M 8 o6 O- {& _) e 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 - ]+ @: i7 J9 Z! }1 R # f& L% ?( c- [# `4 B+ w1 z+ a! G 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。7 J# O7 Y# H, }1 K
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。/ \ m" \) o+ y/ e K; V
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。/ @+ J3 K: \; w" R
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。& ^1 E& `7 ?% A1 _6 {' Y
8 _2 t9 w0 Z% X; B6 _0 l6 `（责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 j; s6 o) P9 @4 U % k1 w" M$ m$ r. O% YRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( [8 b0 m8 ?, D8 A
5 T; I+ ]6 h4 u- s! mBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * c1 `, h7 { E1 w9 h( [, J& w6 J( ?0 G# w9 v! a* o' R
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 U% W1 _* h J$ e: U9 h9 A6 t( O. o( v L1 M5 z5 V* A- C$ q
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 H1 W: R; m1 d5 I8 `
/ s% }0 H( q e& W4 V" m2 F6 h/ y+ fAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 Q; [" C- O9 P. R# t! r. \( \* r) R5 x0 n
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , S5 _- U3 K5 e% X( ]
1 a8 b0 ~5 z, g* ?5 ?+ HFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , L3 D' ~. r9 o' F; t4 x/ ~" W$ }
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : L# t& V- w4 D% Y+ v+ [$ m ) S: v7 n2 W( @ N' U"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + ^7 G, S( ^1 O8 s* k; D5 k$ c. C- t1 g, J1 o8 G( N
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. / A, Q3 b5 o3 Q$ X
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / R. W& g9 U7 p0 h' Q
$ I% P/ W( v2 y/ i: }: RThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - U6 T7 C7 L, W; s 4 F& {! g# \" RUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 p+ o4 w: b4 I7 A# w/ R. p& @ - Q( L+ W7 ^5 F) zChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - ?' i' \4 \* d! Q* X0 }
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : d6 [, j) l7 c2 ~9 `: N
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 y1 ^6 F' `5 M- ]0 @$ o( d
6 d# i+ [& z1 t' q"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 p8 q7 z: |1 A: ?4 [1 v& K8 ~/ d* F4 m2 X4 K
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 z" C: j) |$ U% H5 \% } ~- i) o7 _% _/ Y" {
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
