外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年- L( @6 G! r3 T z; X( N: b/ R
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞% G. X, V7 S* x" K J# ^, T
% M( L# R' v E+ K3 L) C " N1 o6 `& d; o中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。; ?- ?7 ?7 d- N/ z) _0 x; I
/ }3 q; L {9 v k" b/ ? 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 6 M( V& U0 ] M0 h. y6 Y9 P( { 5 E0 r) m9 Q, ~3 ]" f5 {( I 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 N* v8 O- O0 }
3 j) E4 F1 E6 o2 j
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 s( K' p, ^5 b" z ' @0 ^/ E+ P# s) m- I 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。; r2 o0 _6 ^* l: [7 Y( C, A8 @
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。- _7 X7 ?) i1 c# j0 R' C% M
U, T* g2 H; R; X; C* f
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。& F( x% @0 ?0 M7 u. {" `' _: p! a
2 s# ^. Z1 o' j/ ] （责任编辑：杨海洋）# d% t5 d9 a3 @
* Y6 W6 p( \: |4 D n q" sRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 U( P; n2 X! Q$ z5 T; [1 n
( R8 L S) z+ w1 jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. c/ p5 A. e& g/ E6 d& @1 E; F6 k( |7 b: x" S
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 X3 G7 C( L% Q) J
8 N0 Q4 n" `, KLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % e* d" v8 r% P; ]8 u4 e h/ o1 p: Z, h% g7 N! w `1 u1 u
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # I7 O1 ` G* y: B" B
: Y( e0 h% [ \( ]# D1 [, KRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - C* D/ X3 E. v
3 T5 y9 e9 O5 D1 o) M6 q4 y5 Y9 w8 T
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 V' `6 d* A) h3 b 9 D( u. s( `% q0 m7 kThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % h4 z+ X @$ C' M8 Z0 ? # `9 n* M; }$ P4 U8 ~1 S# C* A"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ a% w I/ G5 w- |, K. O/ q
! Z( w" W4 i" ^; ~In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. D8 Y { k8 w7 ?& a, h
) K" T5 F& r' h
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 A+ P6 w0 f8 n: J& K+ q0 N9 e8 [& g# \7 P ?( a
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 P# \% s4 r: P2 ~# @5 [& x9 ~+ ~; p6 ]5 s. i" S
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , |7 V7 E8 o% X, I, W7 O" F+ l( L; I
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; {+ h1 S* ?+ Z% v5 o2 e; _9 D6 `8 I9 w6 G7 j; O3 s0 g0 R) h5 f
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! `1 ~6 A0 q9 S* D# k B! K 6 M& Z6 X6 y% F% ~, o7 X# LInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / l j" S# j+ ` N8 K3 x, ?# h5 L6 S J
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - p" J, |8 [) V+ ? P* B2 X
, n! l( R+ Q1 {+ j* U
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / Y0 ^3 M7 ^' T* o1 H
4 ~, a2 L# l- }! Z; B( u& v
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
