' W, P& Q. D N5 i 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。( Y* D/ A. R0 K& c/ r
' p5 y6 l1 M$ l% A a 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 2 H4 T9 j, c, V* \% q9 L ' H: Q9 `6 X: f3 c! i2 ^ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 r5 T7 F# X4 i+ S7 P 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。) R5 z8 s+ [ Z# q8 s' m- u
, Q2 Z. u7 p1 e7 f$ e 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。$ S: J, m5 k$ {. P7 E
8 h4 m. j& H# x* V( @ （责任编辑：杨海洋） v, x5 ^; ~7 @* t+ x
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters; n* t0 F( L r/ j
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 u* {. k1 D1 u: d. ]2 x7 d1 {, z; E/ x9 @% G
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 7 i! u1 X. p$ Q 7 k7 V1 j) A' U8 e$ R4 y% ?) RLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , }6 \3 i9 A. |, Y" ?$ V
: O0 ?" q) o0 tAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 {& l9 `8 d2 w9 u' C$ D& X( m; X
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 @! ]1 x; ?9 `0 l# R# f+ @5 c" i, _9 X& Q
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % e8 j9 |2 h2 W9 Y7 s7 H1 P' D 5 ~% z$ A) b1 bThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 l) s" v: p4 S+ A6 U9 a9 J: c, m1 _: W( [! C ?2 ~
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' R6 Y5 g7 n9 h2 G! ~! x
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! O! b4 W% |0 E) K& a+ x
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - C6 Y7 V0 D+ ^
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) m" R8 x; ]* Y$ Q6 U2 R% X% G
7 i/ Z0 @3 Q, SUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . T. C) c7 G- B4 O" {+ W
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . u/ k3 J) w1 a/ o* H$ w7 g# ~0 O5 r. Q/ _
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. a p+ @% |' N9 I1 ~+ \$ |9 ~0 K4 ]) y6 ]$ S* T; u- ^, s9 d7 }
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / F( B9 V) r& F) ~6 p " d" x8 a" k! G: _"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # Y/ L: r; O. T+ `1 R9 N
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 R9 ~" l, H! v% R% A7 l+ Z1 S2 V& J% x6 R7 T! v( e
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
