外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年4 L* _( n+ C( m
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞7 R/ A, F( [4 p% Y4 Y5 `; r
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。: G( _$ W9 F- J6 }5 n
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。6 X0 D: P2 O5 X* I' R; _; L
, P V, d7 v/ j, ] D" y# c! [ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。! i! U7 X/ R/ f9 e& O5 o
) l1 d/ _9 U7 a. b6 o) j 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。6 S E1 }; {$ w$ Q* u* s) C
. _. k+ W9 @- A! P 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。% t y$ g$ q K6 J( z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。: U9 Q, ?/ N8 y2 @4 h
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 H/ U# T2 O p8 u4 r" z( `+ \1 v& |6 I, U' L （责任编辑：杨海洋） . g! ^; Q! t8 z4 k ! V: D. R0 E3 J. x1 U+ lRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( [6 S8 S6 u# P/ J# p: Q; O
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' Q* ?8 i2 a# h7 x ' M5 ^& |% ?# y$ N$ F) XA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 V, M8 o3 E$ q. R3 W0 ?$ z1 d
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . Y/ _+ J8 H0 R
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; o3 T8 z+ r7 ~9 X" N9 y6 M
' @/ Q4 `' q; O* M( ~+ s% L7 n; w! ZRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / F) b% V9 D: S F5 R! F ! o9 J' Z$ [0 k3 r3 T# YFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; J$ M' d' [. B) l" x' i 1 ?# R# y4 j9 X! x" i9 dThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # b0 t" S) j/ b! e7 u/ b% O
) T- _& Z/ b$ `# |' i! n"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . Y" }! e' E( ^$ f9 b( {$ a8 }( d- x7 O3 z
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' T. A! O5 o; z! t, W, ] Q0 \- q ! J) m& H+ @" |3 CGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 h+ c, n* |% U7 N* w; ?0 Z
* d: Q z/ Q D4 r7 a/ hThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 _8 l; t8 C. F; c" U, |- @/ V- E' }0 p% T" }, l5 G
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 l! r: E, h2 M' Y0 F) U
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / e" @- ^1 E% v
1 x% }% T* j5 t" @# w4 B8 x" sIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / B- M7 C$ \1 r2 j% \: V2 W& G7 ^1 z% j
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % q. C: U" f+ Z# n$ R. C: W* _
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( w |3 S) ]8 f7 ~- A
( X- H. e# E! J3 t7 ]; v# T) UGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 c5 T0 W/ H" Q) h& E
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
