! t3 [9 o. h7 A* ERunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 5 e+ V d# h1 _( \9 w 5 D. r% y( p) w7 ~- P" N9 D! ZBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' R4 G% B# M" j( J) ?' B
4 [) M$ ]* P: W* @/ e2 NA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 L# z3 B( C( B2 w$ D- `2 C# d: n! f) Y3 R3 `1 H' M1 k3 ?
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 ~! a4 ~* f! S5 H5 P* @8 B8 O- ]9 d7 f7 ?$ u6 i! f) O
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " C3 C0 k: D" g; y; Z
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 \; B+ |; X7 H8 J Q. m6 V. n. _2 Z1 _3 UFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) l+ A, k8 ]3 i8 n + B$ m, K6 [- b9 M8 _1 s3 wThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 |" N$ K3 D) t0 h8 s, R
" F( `3 M. F) H6 |* j"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 _. t" u$ n& D3 X4 {
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( N: u" N+ E! S
3 d; M u7 M. Q1 H# `& A) ?Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - b' A+ Y4 B2 [0 u6 B; n # J3 |8 Y, t3 i3 @That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 ?" d5 F4 \3 G4 c" j) O2 y& ?% T7 T8 m9 J/ D
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 m3 a X/ J8 A+ }0 ^
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 V" \. ?2 X: E+ l/ ~8 Y5 O6 b3 E! i
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , R x5 I) f' I7 T% V0 m- @3 r% h3 R. q& L: E o) b1 Q1 N
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * @' P! Y; {) f+ B0 R2 H, C
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' I) g w ~4 m: k; R
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 k! A, i& f* ?
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
