外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 # c0 m& \3 a2 R: [/ R# G& u* R1 l2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞! x: a- ^: l" e) V' `8 z. a, M
6 V& A' r2 Q: G3 w3 Q; F; K 4 x0 j7 [2 l# d2 l8 ~% G中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 5 w0 L2 g. |6 k" z ( T; o: ]% k) ^4 X: F 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " ^7 L8 e' S+ }2 O8 Z; ^' } 0 X; R' G! i, [1 U" z& T3 F 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 $ S# N/ ^' v* L+ V6 d; i # V4 B6 T% a; q) G" S( p 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 * Y( c# v5 t8 U8 H; N! u0 W, Y- w$ i; }+ s, o$ D
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。" P1 O. y, `+ n d* |& K: R( }6 z
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ^7 v2 ]* h$ W' x2 t, ~7 b& }' x, x. E( A0 p' v9 f! u
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * W7 p7 I0 N6 \( v% A$ x0 ^ ! N8 j* i8 z+ T* G1 G0 @（责任编辑：杨海洋）$ Y6 _* D# @( o4 r: E3 O
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 L6 }- {9 N; }7 `1 l9 b% c: H0 N' W 1 M8 H: X1 J5 A c: bBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' L5 Z. k' f0 y0 L9 S. e& z7 Q8 U
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ? `: t% o: z3 V! O/ f/ v$ s
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * C Q/ c+ H3 d% ~$ r0 ]4 j$ L: N. I# N0 b# D' r, m& b; ?
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. m; ]6 l0 |, O
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 [: }" s* p* S$ j+ S% [5 g# G/ q+ m, B! ]( s. t+ r. k
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * M- P# }: g0 M; W" b& g* ]- H' ]/ e
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 |' N R; L2 j8 ~$ `
+ ^: d( R2 W# {/ k: e( K"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 s- }: k3 R! s N6 z
9 w5 g7 G' Z( ^# H: Z+ D8 bIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( N8 y7 x1 `& Q; n. R( Z! U" x% x7 ~, F
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' t+ G3 A& a( j+ C" i h+ ] ; R3 W1 z, L- p( UThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - R% K/ }) M) V- f
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 k8 T. p5 f! g( G2 e2 u9 W( R( Z' d4 F& [9 j- x6 I
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . o" C/ O4 Q( o & ` x4 q$ @, p% N3 O& ]+ a v7 dIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 _1 _/ r. t, Q. Z
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 @3 ?6 H2 @) p8 x
$ I, j8 d$ u7 R5 \& {$ x( E3 V- h b5 p"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. q$ e0 h3 H7 ]7 v4 F7 b2 u. }
/ c" z: n! E) |( U- @1 e+ |Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " i! N" Z+ c" q& W' m3 i$ j 9 U+ n7 l- R; v; L9 A" s5 zThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
