4 @' [7 a* s8 s7 {; B 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。9 o0 Y! K1 m$ v5 p$ N
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 u" r0 _6 S& Z) ]* |/ G. q1 K) L& S! t& _, ?! r8 S. C7 K
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ) P4 z* h: ~, { 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" N, z R9 g8 q4 @6 Q5 X
" p7 I3 M S9 V6 } 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ s" p- m" r: z4 @4 P9 ^ p
6 x$ e# p4 z* n& M( q) I% U （责任编辑：杨海洋）# H8 H% N6 e( X! S8 m1 g6 Q, h
: `" F: O( I. m u# mRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters6 |; K! H; m A9 s8 R8 a7 p" q$ ~
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! L- c* u5 W$ ~7 M8 g
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. o! n- a2 \6 Y) c# t3 X2 [& L# ~
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! P$ f, C& m( x" \% D, P# G9 f; x8 j; M$ m
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; P% e0 Y* _7 \2 A" A* f; J
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - n- x# n+ c2 r0 O8 \5 G0 O ! A6 d, X4 G; q5 i. x# TFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - N4 |+ ~1 A" t l; k6 l2 a2 F" }% y
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 |- w3 d9 ~2 _4 `, }; C" z' K
6 J7 y' w, |+ U$ c \) {"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * I) ]" {& E4 E" c& {( X
7 s# O+ `; I% F% _8 |# ]1 V5 ^5 VIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 l/ O1 ^2 b9 M
& w# K, l% m3 {3 j, eGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 ]$ M4 ^2 X9 V1 e* `7 l, {
1 D8 F5 S& _. l1 B1 Y0 ]That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 {' g5 J) {5 Y4 Y; p2 }; G; n/ @ * s( y5 k% x! t$ A: h! uUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 d- T7 p( @' {! g9 G
, H& ~2 m; O8 X4 w# X# ?$ T5 z AChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 B: }) g2 O9 G: I4 C& I5 k+ N
1 e3 }! H$ l7 D' P* y+ p1 C3 f. r/ P1 I% hIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( S D: a; j5 q6 D; r! l" w
: ] q; ]2 j6 a5 [8 MInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % r; r4 |8 G1 [' ~3 ^$ @3 r1 K' M1 K- t( X- H! G6 k
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % d* B1 U/ K4 V/ ^( V8 N0 Y( n! d2 ]
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( g5 }: H7 k& W " X" {* J* j, B* WThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
