外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年+ b0 T7 Q" T( E' t3 j
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞5 ?/ n0 d4 P/ t0 O E+ P9 \) x# x" x
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。1 L" k# l. o3 j& Y2 S6 p3 s
# b- F( `' f0 Z5 B" P% v( w 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " o& S B4 r/ J* M 8 G: C2 Y% i4 E! `0 ] 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。* p; L( k" n5 H1 G/ A w2 f
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 , H: [! g" t# C% ~, l1 v 9 J3 V" |. L! Y2 I5 U5 k: A1 g( I 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 H! o2 Z1 z! a
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ) \+ n3 Z7 W) v4 S* p. e( C9 R5 C( {) h2 X4 w5 a
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # t8 n A. d$ V1 e h; q$ @0 N6 c, Q % E. e* W: P$ r$ y! E（责任编辑：杨海洋） M' K- u8 {( F$ ~) z8 C. A2 z: F
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters) b* D# k$ y) M
7 \% b3 t* q7 p) {: M5 z+ ]BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 l9 B) I' S* V g! f6 I: R G6 `5 P- n; ~4 y! W ~" Y
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 a" Z2 W$ O" A. n* h* m. _3 P. k" H& z: D1 v4 U$ b& P, I! u$ B
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 x+ Y' }( M4 P$ f' H% z8 J" o+ r2 c7 }0 T, [ r
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : D5 n9 ?$ _4 Y2 n6 o
0 D& P! n3 `' nRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 ?- N3 |9 K; y e7 s' e0 q V& ]5 i) {- E2 i9 ?2 n2 S' z- C& `+ D
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 L0 e/ k A: I0 G7 D
+ K$ J' e- Y5 e$ m( qThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 1 r3 k& P: ? ]/ q x/ \
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 X P T( W" y+ M6 W. ?- _. j' ~9 h1 J( g8 |
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * [" s5 ^" f9 S
5 h6 ~: }" t, P% \Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % q2 W! A% v+ g
, @6 ?1 u, I! T! q3 ^3 CThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ g2 C2 f' H) Q( p. O! `! X
+ V1 L X+ z9 O1 {Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' j$ k3 ~) c2 l! I6 {# h: ^ ( ^& ]* L; J; D0 M$ hChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ k4 Z5 ^9 C8 T3 Z* n! \
! d8 }2 t. q5 w/ I, P5 |If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / g) T( p' G; \; d/ I2 R4 l
/ Y6 q" I; X# v# ], uInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : @3 t, {% b4 V+ i+ `8 B# B
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ _* j0 S: P6 } c9 x - z+ x$ E) [- s% k% K3 U4 ^Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , X1 P& P, ]% b% L8 @( U9 [$ I! M* o
, o. u1 a( o. |5 N. tThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
