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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ) m9 ]* [7 ^( |7 _ ; b2 o7 [ I7 E; M 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。3 R1 a, o9 k. n+ M6 `, r
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 I H- q7 {5 z% L- N; }5 s! n* o7 {% ^) @9 E% ^5 R
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。8 {$ ]0 p/ [% j9 l& ^) x- I; u
9 A: e, _% Q& a$ n 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 + a! \( f/ I5 C& x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 R! ?; h+ s N3 I& ^! u/ [1 X9 E9 [: n: x
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " a6 q) K# K% K6 z5 V: `* @0 i7 o( ^8 U, K; W （责任编辑：杨海洋） 8 {+ M* R& a8 L/ Q/ F: O% k: _: \- A; q; P* W& [" B j3 `
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 ]2 G3 R/ B" J; ^2 q2 ?' D7 l" {7 \: `! D; T$ }- g1 \
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; K- [! l9 Y) V7 i8 f( o0 h" k/ Q" D% S7 X2 f6 v
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 S* U+ X) `- R+ y0 Y& ^4 Y" U; s# R* x8 A2 X0 G3 h
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # ^9 H, t# D. {* O& D y" s' B; [" v2 y3 `2 Q4 J
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : h7 c- w; L% f/ [& p& r* l) _: r! G6 e2 K
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. # E$ z- ^; Z' P4 i2 j+ A q# G0 {7 Q1 A3 k( C8 l' F
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * N" H$ y4 K9 h% b0 I: L( a2 d& w: x, E E0 V* E9 G9 K. O
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ N5 }2 A8 n7 w6 Y , A8 k6 u0 \8 G7 _# p- @+ s"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 M3 Z0 ?1 b; w; {9 O" Q& m$ @) Q* `1 ?8 N5 o A
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 l- I1 k |/ o% b( a
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - v6 W0 }& _$ E' ?: U1 @$ D0 f% M* \, \
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , `0 l$ v$ D6 O2 ?& i * k6 l# x T4 g) g7 L" W* a4 NUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! u* I6 e: U3 o& M0 z
- @% q) X" ^9 U+ A4 o! lChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " [5 ?9 D+ x! {( h" ? 9 @+ h0 o# z# Z9 d+ GIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + V; B$ f$ h6 d: s) y# E) f6 ~8 \: x D2 g# s
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 Y6 V9 h' D3 e8 y0 q e# Y
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 Y2 f/ g% f* [5 x3 r% S0 A h0 x 6 r# S8 d# D9 P( T' H8 tGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 H2 e# G/ L6 H' z$ E: E2 R
0 r U3 d! ?! M& d6 N( Y/ OThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
