外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 # m. A/ i( @$ o. p2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞$ w! I8 l! }7 [: m+ ?3 [* h
- U) q5 R" Z9 ~/ u b 3 o, D: ?# _* }) S) J中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。/ z& O3 }. t+ H& q! U( h& k
7 s) }7 e& W4 }+ B
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。4 B& l" n0 _* G4 T/ l8 y
: I+ m4 f; F' n0 u s 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' q/ v* Y$ g8 W( s4 i X b W; w6 m/ H
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 t6 ^( C* J* F
* q+ T- g0 ?+ w5 r6 ?5 H0 B8 Y- O
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ B+ E0 N. W6 Y- f 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + Y% Y. u6 ^0 g" _, f 7 e2 @+ x6 Z& W: K/ p 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 _3 n4 w5 a! C8 n' |' j$ ^+ ?" p9 @; x# J （责任编辑：杨海洋） $ O6 _, E8 ]" n6 [) r* V* L3 S0 y; m$ \
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 6 o1 X( V; N, s% s3 t' t8 k' [% O ! y/ F' H7 ^9 C* I+ {7 T4 s' GBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 r6 Z1 L X) l. ^7 O; r0 j3 C; P5 ]9 K& M0 s0 [2 [6 O
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + j* @" R, Z" z3 r; G/ ~ + x/ D0 d( W; _3 a$ U2 wLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 Z, R3 D4 |" }6 l1 \& k! A6 J 6 z+ B7 F! D3 \/ PAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / r. ~; s; H2 [# p) Y L0 g- W2 h3 r% a
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 3 X7 R: Z |" s: r
3 q0 \- u m- O" c, y0 R
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 Q& s2 f0 g% F/ r ( l" y) O7 X, ?& ]+ C, ?( c' |This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( [2 L- v6 z* _
, n7 g* b" \' d+ i% l"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " Z* S" ~0 s5 S9 `+ t0 e. P9 p - p6 A4 e: a2 a3 d3 c" pIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 T2 J- K( F8 A( I 4 f# x- i/ q: _" m; Z' yGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; p" _8 T7 b0 ]# {9 s \; A- O% f _
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ' s: ^% E5 B2 i2 \/ P- n' i( p7 o# h, t0 B/ c, Q/ r \& n
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * @7 x, Q2 V9 x/ b7 I! @( w' { 7 R8 a& X- P; H: D& q4 _% }) `% O' }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! h. w( g* ?$ w- o# K: n0 C o: U
5 w# A; P3 X% U7 tIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : V+ ~+ E. v7 h3 A
: x5 h& a% S! }. }6 R4 KInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + P0 `4 O6 }$ p
: b5 @: o6 p9 K! D; X, A"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 h& x3 ~4 R+ r' J4 @7 Q- j. }
% _4 E% `# o0 ?% b) A8 M3 m
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) X, s8 [1 D6 B+ y: W6 K. {
" `8 i, `) U; tThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
