, ]4 ~+ I w l- p 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 $ _( q4 a/ t# p& k * N0 v. t4 S5 v* O. p" ] 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 T) j$ h3 L3 N9 t+ g
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& ]% E5 a" R$ a* ^
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 % L3 H0 N- ]( g" ?6 N$ F" Z% n) c M' k( o# l
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * E' `; {/ i" y3 Z6 u - g' L! j, n0 D/ X& _, T（责任编辑：杨海洋） / v3 }7 `7 S/ P, f, P5 B8 O$ `: P5 R+ _/ w4 T; k. p
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters* k; O! A7 O0 i; l/ h
+ f% p M0 `+ f) V& o% BBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 G4 Q3 z) d2 e1 s
+ f" T9 R K, ^A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ n* P% ~8 |) O9 N
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # o9 m% u( J1 K, |0 v0 R) p2 O# m7 G9 e2 c K
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' b9 \4 A, V5 ?( a8 ]9 F . T" q* L( |1 ^5 Q$ s+ _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , p" m u8 E, D4 } * i+ ^# z& p( [0 [% [# Z% V5 vFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / B( ~7 _3 S x g0 W& Q7 p6 R) ^" Y7 \" ^* h ?
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 1 U5 t- E6 n# u4 x , P. S5 z& @) C, ]"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 u3 A8 i9 [6 e4 I# a3 z8 g4 Z' Q1 e2 t$ s0 R* |5 j
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & W+ \; _+ |# X$ z
: o) o. t/ _# @* i) \5 H. ~0 Z# q/ t9 aGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ j) J( C: f: K' F4 I
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 e7 H, b" d! d " f% }1 \# v& N" YUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % x% n$ p( j8 Z3 q8 X& g' S/ j / D( V% o$ a. x$ N% w( ~$ DChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". f$ g& W. G7 g6 X( E; d: T8 g8 b; d8 @( ~. V
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! M" h+ U3 M, y5 r1 N8 h, y% J) m& n% @* m8 x; r% d) `1 C# {0 s
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 @* K6 h, G! r2 r; N6 t: ~ 4 b9 M& A* j/ n, b"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " c6 a7 X" R$ F7 M& H: s 7 X$ u8 P4 u3 J9 H+ W! C; } ]Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + n4 I Q5 D2 T+ K: a2 B3 ?2 I% }8 d; H1 G3 H+ i
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
