外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 7 {0 C' ?# @7 @! M1 O2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞- K, }. l$ D6 w& N/ u
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 % _; Q( ^7 c9 E * T5 D$ K; C& O6 k3 j1 C3 h% o 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。+ d+ Y: V) t6 g! G# F8 A
8 t- I$ T3 `- N( ?: W1 Z1 @7 q K& U 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。0 n* p2 r! o/ l5 H R
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # n, J& r+ J* Q u3 `1 ~4 g/ _- {# m8 Q( w( k8 u( b6 U
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。- t6 [/ p4 a2 u
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : p9 F' X8 f" C5 S( e, J) Q: K4 I6 u% \* }; _$ W
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 v4 B' Y0 ?) {; p9 j# A: H
2 \- s5 ~" F6 ] （责任编辑：杨海洋）; c" R5 N* I2 t0 t8 }6 s) K
; n. l9 f' ?0 w; hRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 N- x/ u' d& ^) m8 t9 }- Z
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - G7 X# r( o2 q# E
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # C q: E& u |6 T
: S: e0 I+ T- Q( e( sLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 b \. q- l( C& K, m/ d- x* l' |2 l2 x- R2 y! j
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ S( @( J* z! _' a3 @& f1 A
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 J. ?! G% x1 B
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 w& y5 B! f1 v& C
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; {( {0 g/ O6 T7 C2 d& G: b! ?8 J; V, f, r' h
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 C% z( M& I- L- J( G8 Q& T# H' [; C9 v3 f
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) n, o1 `# L8 D7 ]1 C( Y 3 [8 _- \+ R/ |# A1 j1 [% tGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * n$ d" r4 a( h+ P% J2 z0 J/ h' K
) z; C, M% z. E) @' D3 N7 MThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + f" n, W1 r1 U5 _) }
; X, Y9 a* w0 K' n0 A& g( sUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - a4 j( z+ X% z* j $ C, x7 Y% p/ l) R% M! HChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & [" d+ k* y8 M4 O& F v" }' D- a4 t/ W7 j3 F
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. m& g/ Y1 O# o$ v) J1 A . d3 D: f$ a9 y) Z5 ~2 U: W/ kInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; j( c" {. U- W5 N1 t6 ~; ]0 |/ I
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / C0 b% O9 M4 Z% T5 |
+ U" n" i* Z( W- ]; ?3 N% H* M: H( FGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / T% E E/ y% v1 q
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
