4 h/ G+ b! f2 u) {% c. a. O7 h中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 * E9 d% i0 p/ C3 ? 1 }& p. a M) z3 C" u! J 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ( f. l+ i0 Y/ v! l2 v9 l9 j / L* {- a: Y2 {" P' U' A* j; r5 j- F 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。8 I$ L8 L0 U6 t6 Q/ ^
4 f7 u* x( D. K g; B 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' H: w8 ]' L3 ^5 h( e ; h: L6 D! ^) c4 ?3 D4 L, v 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 6 r. K [0 f- P' H$ Y2 I 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 3 `- `! O* X, z; y2 b7 t: Z( u( O' a) `3 d( _' p3 c
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 1 |9 T1 n( d0 \ l" g/ M0 q, U( w( w6 n0 S" H( U （责任编辑：杨海洋） / @* s7 \4 z6 \! ? 9 c1 Q" K! p! k- g, XRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters " }" D9 M+ u/ F' ^3 ] " k' I5 U8 d/ w, MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 ~0 F( \- e( m& f a' Z
; i& n: m! [ s$ tA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 m9 b: Y# X# z# D: i; J, F$ a& U% X, }; m
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ ?( Z& {& P/ s. h9 v, |( L' m. r; L' f4 d' U6 N
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 \& A/ |0 k7 _( K4 F6 A2 I6 R7 p1 d+ Z5 H7 M+ Y
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 U1 K0 o/ t; x& E* _- e% ~7 ~, e9 Y" K& M# B; s! @. q
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 ?4 k+ N/ E( w9 H
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / Z) V; |: @2 z r, K ]
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( U- n& i, a2 E, J# ?) E8 l4 l
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; A8 F1 }7 N) [2 O- P$ W
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & e& A1 l5 e) X- m' U Q3 W
8 e6 {, c. C- T5 u: X; EThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 v6 H* o3 Q# H( o: L9 B
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( {# G: o9 p f! r% T/ n
# d; S5 U6 Z# @ k5 M8 C) A& H) E, eChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , V6 n+ A+ t: s8 P, y7 z" r. n- c 0 y( i' k/ z* O6 O7 X: q- @4 PIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 i- s) v4 ~) s' @2 k# W 0 W* w( V# |) H* J+ b% B4 EInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 g2 Q$ ]% k6 R6 U4 O' C8 A
% p1 i* h. w+ _8 W2 ]; ?"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 z/ j1 d% p9 b6 j) u$ O ' Q5 f. h! V" mGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. I* N) Z- U# _/ b: {. c " h6 b- M' l: SThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
