外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年6 @$ T3 o) i3 m" e) S- k" j2 V. c
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞4 D+ G4 ? A2 A# U$ S9 E+ W5 V, g
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ( U- V% I N+ `& P) m3 `/ w- j' K; N+ y- f; K- a
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。" I2 d( q; @0 `5 T# t
0 f# S7 t0 o" w 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 : {5 Q' i5 H0 N2 G: j4 c! ]# d: \ w
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) v$ Z9 K% ]1 R& W& y) ]+ Q* Z t$ f9 b& \- x6 h) O( z* h8 k 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& g- {* M' a- |: m: w# G% J& k& v
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 s; @5 G" R' A( X$ p0 ]) f4 ~% ^6 \: X: Q
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。. \% h1 e+ u. K
* v9 @4 x4 d8 I5 d' p （责任编辑：杨海洋） ; _1 P5 K+ ^1 b: N' g; Y2 Y- B/ j) J, q2 F" |1 C4 v
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 [3 q! |7 Z, r
5 w4 G: K+ s' @2 o4 [7 e6 W: FBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 K5 n% ?& M' z- C2 S0 u# B" E5 Z
( t8 o# ?' d* B: ]+ wA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 L& V. [# P: w8 `
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & F# x9 R3 {% s# c6 ~2 y + N2 `; E/ B8 v( t7 B: W3 A- EAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " s# H& n: e& ?. Z 2 }+ W& d3 o4 ~: {/ mRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % I: [) u6 m+ ?& {1 Z& @' _. Y/ m' f0 z
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; @/ y. C8 a9 w
1 j/ U3 r% w, u cThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. x. A' e+ o$ P/ f5 M' q$ X % b' P; ~4 Z a4 Z+ p. r& d"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * x2 w4 u/ b% t5 f5 H6 H7 m' t% C+ b 3 D5 Y# E4 D; s$ P$ XIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + L7 n9 b+ |% i5 f/ s. [
( d7 q- s5 Q! D1 d" CGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; L, H" g9 Z6 t4 O
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + k' l# Y2 K+ A- ]( H# H9 T ; p2 F( P; m% I, z1 t( j: L5 Y5 WUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. / g7 K1 r j/ |- h8 l7 ? e. V0 B- Q$ l" O% m9 Y
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! v9 o }* X; y' k) o/ e' g
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " x3 l3 ]$ h8 t% j A
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / J& Q' }' F3 `4 N( t2 e + s4 M- b5 j) \% B1 Q! C; L"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! S6 q/ M7 X9 L5 U, T' r! u, _. g3 v
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. $ {/ z: O4 O+ g
