外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年( ^4 f: u$ p! K. t, B8 H
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞9 M9 s2 s( I) z/ I
! m* h- s. c) a . D+ a- q1 e8 F q- ^中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。9 [3 G2 U/ `+ S/ E
6 Q' y/ W/ L; z: f* u e
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 & o% g: i& @' I5 _ 5 W" K* C6 D) I( F 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 1 ` b& _) h6 a* w : X4 {7 j+ w; S! o+ E 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, ^+ D8 k8 j8 k! d
2 f. m0 R) @7 H5 m 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, ?! c6 p2 q6 T) ~2 _" p2 R
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 j9 c8 C( d) G. z: b3 D7 }8 b; g2 O! K
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : _+ G8 |: L& z& }9 x: _' i7 l/ k, a3 e3 U7 X' N8 P0 `, ] （责任编辑：杨海洋） : H+ p- R+ \1 i; l M5 k1 r5 o& [) Q/ ?
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters * d7 u2 j) o- D0 {$ a ' E/ ^1 [: S) K2 p$ gBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 T* l3 E) D! P0 F9 H8 ]7 I3 |, J2 e6 c2 p3 v
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 d. B9 l# W) V6 T+ n l; h
) K* w4 [) Q6 E' E; h: r$ k
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 Q+ f& @5 a t6 Q6 L5 i/ _5 H/ j
( H1 o8 q$ J1 z
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . U* D; f9 ]2 ]% I, v2 T4 ?
( S* o- |" c8 _0 c0 K( T
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 h' n% n6 w N) X$ F* i1 G4 Q; @( y5 d. r
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. P# G$ P- ^3 o" m( V- p" p# T$ [% j
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * r) ^9 S6 R- z9 u8 D& g/ b1 v
" l1 g, j7 O* }0 e3 S3 [6 Z3 B"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 O) I+ h2 [" Y% t i& O
0 p( C3 Z9 u( P6 f, G
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( G5 o2 z3 Z6 [+ Q; T4 Z/ p$ `9 m
; c% [# {" {3 _0 v
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; @$ I" X1 m6 b3 u5 _, s
- O+ I$ D" l8 A- z1 b; U. nThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 L# }5 V( l6 e* x' p" g ' q* R& n8 L" |, u6 e0 B* pUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # P e5 h% v4 e# B0 D
" ]( _8 e4 x$ l* E" ?# |! {& a
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( k: [! F1 {0 O) Y. v/ N* Q7 q F: a
7 R/ D5 Y% x! V8 _4 Q
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . W% T5 O& W K& p3 |/ ^2 _' K* ?0 K
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) e, b4 C& h R; O5 z
8 }# R$ B/ d, C8 ]( Z1 d3 T"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & Y" Y1 K3 V3 `6 a* R 4 h/ N: Y$ o) J6 p/ p. r* x- ZGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % ~1 L* J& }8 M' D) v5 n. z) o- y
; K) \0 T. o/ p: H: _) T8 H$ G
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
