外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年) N$ u: G7 y% `
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞9 r# S& N- w0 p: U8 B
! q! b, X; U: J3 X$ M
- j' ~% P- C+ b6 Q% o
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。& D# n6 z( J+ D9 C8 j% u' C p( B
1 w# p2 L! m! e# } I- `
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 d; H' `1 q3 D" B. g8 y+ }) E x( Q! ]9 z' d1 e
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。9 {4 R) }% h2 o; D9 l3 Z
3 V! M" h5 @1 E) f) k: R0 ~" B7 u
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 % ~3 o& M1 `5 C$ g& B# e& K0 Q7 Q# T: o6 F
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' [( b+ f9 m$ X+ G' W0 f) @, } 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 / V6 `! f% A$ O4 F, z [+ ]0 Q2 \0 p* e- m; M3 g3 w 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。1 |3 S: B2 a! k% E, I' w
5 {8 z: [ U& a, w! M. y! x（责任编辑：杨海洋） ! P7 z/ Y) k/ r$ n3 o$ y 0 u5 [/ H" }2 R; mRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters' M& \" F5 Q# C# B9 i2 I
) Y) z' L; c4 H, [/ n$ ]6 P0 g' ?
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # a) l3 M1 `7 ^5 G
3 f3 k. G+ t& a+ \% H( U/ i
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 I. C2 G) u6 N3 V7 R- V. D L" M# ~, G/ H
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , X H6 J- m1 {. L$ a ) L% }. u+ c7 o7 R c, T' [; |8 EAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' s. n" g' T' k# P" D& X! x
* j6 g) c) h* y, ZRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % b7 Z7 E& t0 m: V7 @) w# w
0 u" D4 M( s% \, LFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / s% R8 O6 @2 i* ^( _; x' h4 Z6 {% }
/ s$ w7 ]3 {. @; ~ KThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 Q& t' W$ K/ `9 a" R" ?& M; M v; J7 l
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ |1 m4 ]/ q6 g
$ D& w) H1 V, ^
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 L ~" d/ h% O9 G9 h5 `$ s+ ?! t6 G n: f9 \
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 N' |' I; ]: z& d
7 Z0 I5 y) U2 ~9 y( a; hThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / X- h* z8 b( V9 w+ P1 K: Y# W" A" [; C- I, U8 q
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. V7 S; v. t6 ~5 [/ E( f# T' J7 j( V
, J4 f A- {4 B' \3 w4 B, \! OChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + c1 K- n/ M/ o8 [6 e, K$ W$ |: Q6 N' q! J" S# L! ~1 [
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 ~$ S$ y6 n/ } & K5 L7 v3 w. S6 ?International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 {7 I0 `! m2 L* \- `7 W/ e2 F* t2 Y O
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) \ ?% e0 }" ~4 Z8 Z: V3 }
, d3 |5 N1 v4 T1 eGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 l2 w; p# M# W& H, d8 E
4 [2 f q7 r K' j
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
