外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年. z1 M' \# ~1 T
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 9 k5 O8 B0 k: w! E/ S* G& C) I% a. \) F9 z+ V# N D& q" p( @
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ' o* g# z! b% A/ q" h& I: N* u( p
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # y7 x! I5 m4 D9 K! x' r+ ] 4 F& N$ P0 U9 o 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 / x0 y' B: g9 ^, R6 L2 j 9 j- y( V2 b$ c- `9 ~ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' g) k1 @$ r; j1 s y8 e4 X' t: p$ K# E7 S8 P) z
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 - b; o1 h& n: p+ \8 _ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 5 N# e: m- s: e0 q7 l; t7 s4 u9 a) m4 e/ B
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # |9 z0 M- ?+ v1 r7 ? $ a2 u4 ?4 |3 }* u+ [（责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 H( e( M% ~1 }. b1 g% [! e% O/ Y5 ~/ S9 u3 h/ s
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ! A; r" H+ z& I# x3 C% V ; ?$ f" X3 B! t" wBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 _& V, j* W4 e
% u: Z, z8 l7 i2 D6 YA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ C" k$ `: G* K) [( i: G& ^' D7 @; A! u v2 y2 s2 z" p. Q) d
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! w$ z5 b( J# p1 ?( B
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , _- ^, s: e H
, h/ ~/ }: C5 d+ \1 |) ~Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 `8 ~" p2 {1 _) B' I; R' s* r$ T! h8 N2 r, T" `' t
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . e, p# D$ S; _$ ^* a8 Z- R 1 {; D3 N1 M0 R1 d$ HThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - m9 L- P1 J; y, k& m, N6 o% H - ?8 r/ b# ~0 s"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; E$ n# z& u3 U" w* ^ ; D. q$ N5 I- A* r8 FIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. g7 ]; X) N0 k; K
! Y# n$ t/ P; J4 I1 y% t1 _7 H, K7 oGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 r5 E; I5 Y7 r" J/ m * Y& _" u! c/ oThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 j+ c, T, \3 i, z
# q5 E- e" a; u+ X8 k, z7 PUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ; a7 E* G! s$ _) o' K9 F; O; ^- w5 t* W5 A: J* E
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / q0 f- d: c1 f* z; K9 ^4 u8 {
( l% h- a% b! ], rIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 2 Z- W% }& e; c( m " N& ~. N5 g MInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % \/ R2 @, W# Z) [' j# R
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 C! Z) [5 F7 ^( n9 B8 b$ C ! q( D; `+ [! dGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 z" b% O( q9 ^
