外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年/ p: l, A$ q6 O% J8 a, g
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞7 Z. t5 I9 c2 `5 ]& X
9 Y- o5 H: h6 t
9 X& e; I/ k, U1 s' \
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 8 E$ K% H9 Y9 {$ X1 i + j' W5 V3 `7 b, r3 J9 y3 Z 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 , B! T6 x0 Z' D/ J! j$ \- U* j7 o7 P4 ~
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 K m" B4 I* P! k 8 D/ m* K5 S8 X' e 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 _$ |7 N+ z- A4 ^8 C X+ r
# c Z0 B. t/ V$ Q8 m0 b/ ~! U: t 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 / D5 Z+ n- R' H" V% X* V+ U* f7 e 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 c0 ~8 b: g+ P8 h8 x; [
5 g' d% j ~* j# U' {: Q 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) D. b+ q5 _0 N+ @* x 3 ^, K, [9 D- A（责任编辑：杨海洋） . |: S! g; c9 M" t% c 4 R' S! r# |' p2 C! d) x8 p u# rRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / Y% |3 n! _0 [7 N" u! J% C , t. _. a7 }: l7 ~# |BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ o+ _0 f ]! e2 h% Z
0 P G p$ q" ]4 |A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 J& x: j% V8 p7 z$ F- Q/ }8 L* c- z4 t' l' {9 t: \' p s& f; e% d
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! A3 ]3 M6 m1 e4 b
2 b4 c/ T' ^, q# _4 {8 I9 ]
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % j; w5 J6 T# ^# Y9 N0 z- k. Z5 L; d+ j/ C+ M, p8 Y. X
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " a" Q3 W% ?1 G3 P9 x
( T' i0 G* ~ Q, L% o! e5 H% P
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " X) I7 d2 C. @& m3 S
1 o# a K+ n5 H* ~2 B) dThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; e! ~6 _' m; B6 c, t! d3 A + |& k! q: Y) R6 V. R3 _3 A"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; L$ K7 Q1 s+ c+ ?
' v2 I) U5 B- f9 Y4 BIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' ^; D2 j3 e& n6 \
9 m) h* J* E" I* `, p- Y6 Y* BGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( q! s+ C+ d% |/ U2 u4 S0 x m5 V- q1 g
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 z* Z. _* O' Z2 Z' x! L {* b% X L" a* F9 C6 ~9 ^( t' k
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 e( F Y# {7 w8 e) L; u; k6 O/ |+ }* S) f0 E( g! I; p( @
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 d& E# s: j2 Q/ N
6 U2 v: `) s1 f. SIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( f5 g/ V) r0 |" ~# O8 t, ] % Z% W! E* a5 i3 `: L/ DInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) X! C A5 [; Y1 ?* C1 ? r8 t
! s3 m9 `2 I( I! m! Q5 C
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; z4 a- n0 t. |* ~: }) y) k. ?
6 q E$ ]3 S) s7 E) j+ A
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ]( Q5 u- e1 O0 c% N, I : b1 g& Z+ Q+ B# ~Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
