- P- H( j8 j$ P5 ^* w% ` 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' `( R! j+ `) A |4 |2 t9 B6 e3 m （责任编辑：杨海洋）0 O2 M. ^( l! ^* c) l5 Y
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. D `- I) T( ]. r) J, ^
. C, B: X& g& N9 T) g. MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; Y0 r0 [/ j' t: o2 {4 Z) F* c2 k. W6 A) p6 c- N) M/ Y
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # I0 R2 e' i% P1 ^+ H8 ^9 m9 g- c; j a- c7 Q A
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . t; c% | s- K5 c6 G
( X4 w" A! W5 PAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 G2 N" E* R+ d+ `+ p. m% x 2 y) q- c' s7 L hRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' d" r$ x$ l, L% F* J + S9 b0 |1 B. T! a7 g8 l4 |First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # o3 z- h; ]- a5 ~+ J# L& i
! O9 B9 P. l: H# o/ \ DThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 V9 w8 J1 h1 ~: P . L* q$ g4 s9 t9 F) O& ["The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % B) A: M5 O/ h r0 p
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 \2 R7 \' ]4 D8 Y' }3 ^; u$ A! j" h) w6 h, T$ c5 p$ F
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : Q! r7 [0 d5 i. O% h8 {7 t1 ]9 G; ?( O4 ~: m' m3 L6 o' t
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 y' @7 w! [6 q9 m" R / u' y1 y( ?3 U2 J: r' MUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + g+ |/ I6 [. R" V7 K8 {
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . _0 |5 o6 e1 R# F & {8 G9 `! P4 }. F/ O- S3 IIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * {8 }' k7 y$ S6 _* O* e
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : D. y: A3 k3 t $ I: r& W8 n, s, Q"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & c3 n, h5 s9 r6 V
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! [7 t4 e5 ]( m' U) K, R. T U7 d
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
