外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 2 B1 b) _: S) U3 W3 |( ]0 |2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 0 `* J1 H7 ]8 H% ? j$ o- ~/ ~. H 7 j4 x( g( U j/ T) e! R
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ' f+ x6 _* M/ q. J. ?3 h: ]9 z i6 W% D5 ~+ M; U
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。' B3 I- F8 Y5 k4 A- A( L- s. M/ i
/ C+ {( v# _/ v 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 J- a" y8 L! K9 Z' C, _5 ?9 P1 t) G" M# S- f, R- D. u6 w. O
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ]2 ~' A: A: x( ]5 R: U$ T* B3 P: G
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 2 `. b' X' i- ]- j2 L) u 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & c( H" f7 i% b! R. O ( a& {& `' B! H& v: k3 I 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。5 o0 R) B5 k1 {$ q+ l, t3 R& T
9 i! A5 u M4 O& L （责任编辑：杨海洋）' E) L3 H3 H- h% e$ Y* M
, C4 A# ? L4 RRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, R! W& K" N$ |: i0 D) e' q w- c
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 E2 v; t# n! C& g( f9 g# n) C' n4 B) P
6 B" `' v# x& F, }) V% \, UA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + G5 z" u. j6 q; T+ }2 G. m
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( M7 u9 i/ n4 S% V5 L6 Y8 I# `% [0 ~; e: z, `4 V
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' v: z4 O3 J' b" q
. i/ ]2 ~% j4 y9 A) QRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 E5 z/ s/ ?% G8 Y/ E8 z2 |1 |- |5 V# h
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - p2 I! N; Q" S4 g! I# b
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * \* |# @8 x: w
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 N9 b! X' t J& c. I. R$ ~
. E! L1 b) z" H2 D6 T/ |In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 V2 b5 Z; s1 b4 V! u
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 e, t9 ]+ y' `/ p/ q8 F8 l( H" Y/ I! k
7 ~- g0 E2 v- O8 f3 ^That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % n6 B8 e8 ?: E8 a- u$ v7 T& N$ o3 w- _% u; P! }) `
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & Z( z% q" q/ l, }6 w0 E, _9 V% P# D
/ w0 F# _ U% j1 a3 `China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( X; r( w: A$ Y8 L, ~) G9 K/ k: X 2 q" o% f! D/ R* q: L& B( fIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 M8 x H9 U2 l% h/ |: H" p P: S+ g
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 r5 l4 @$ V" O5 Y. ]
8 E1 }/ _( _4 i# |"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; u0 t: j- ~9 a9 P! Z
- P+ M. c0 E! q9 i% d, IGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : Z0 \* W) m" f6 Y) t . c( i5 @5 Z$ C4 v \5 X* V4 w$ BThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
