外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 2 Z) W0 n9 E' m' O2 }" r5 [0 p2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞7 U: V: C0 b2 f1 G7 ]' H
5 t" T4 G W9 x% j: X : D, t* }4 [( F% w) O3 J0 n8 z/ {1 K中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 9 X% r1 g3 U5 G- O; w& V5 H* G + {0 r! ]9 e8 j 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。% \* i+ a: p/ ]% Y* a7 T
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。" z+ ~5 ?+ P$ J" C3 _7 E
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 M+ n ^5 X5 D0 y; q
0 @6 T) d9 X. T4 B/ ~, t9 H8 y 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。4 S o* B( O9 Z( d
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 7 N m" z5 A2 d5 T- X J) X& M4 ~9 } 9 m6 d* Q& ?& ~, J2 o 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 T! M9 X+ r! e, W& p! y" |- N9 _ " U$ @9 o! w& a+ \& `8 [& b（责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 j2 t! [2 W4 j8 u/ g& f/ ` 3 j, {; G, Q0 I6 kRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 A U8 o7 u" a3 t9 I
2 E" b' L6 q" zBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * [6 s$ S, L; v4 u4 O% k6 `; Z- |/ ?. M. t, G
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / i2 z G' @( h* E# E8 T+ N! `
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + R7 x+ i% b% _1 F: u' h
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , ~# q5 P; T, K! d# b7 s! w' J9 M/ I! _3 \: N# R. P& l
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 l+ L# d, h7 N( `. s z9 d8 p3 N8 @8 w' j3 }% ~( D. M7 O R/ ?, D3 q
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 x* i% ^/ n* W
! ^5 a0 ], e9 I, ^& ZThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & m4 ^9 ]( b! N+ l( `0 s5 E9 E2 B/ M6 b* O
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * K% i$ r( {- T# Q! L
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 R) W3 n5 L$ T
" V- }2 y9 D8 L4 z3 iGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 1 U1 A) D* E& y& M8 ?% l8 U( X( i" S. b' k. R( }' Y8 L
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # i; `. w6 M. _3 _5 b- G* c
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 K9 v p# s, ~ t+ \' L, X! m8 @* Q: [6 z0 J2 @0 {1 n
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " h7 b: H& ?* b- I1 T7 }
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 w5 o& Y7 F' b+ d
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! s( ^( m* u& u: B5 P8 j / F# E1 ^: u; S' `' ?"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 R% ?- H+ `: i8 b
6 `. C- n0 P9 B# e% J" YGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 b0 ]2 G; W) P9 l& P0 g1 ? ; b: S# |8 ]% `6 ]Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
