# A, E. S2 f4 Y+ ~ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 : c1 V+ Y& g+ m! I- F" ~: e$ a1 e1 d
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' F \7 {( L& n# x8 B & F# P3 g: b. x 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ R+ k1 M2 e$ K4 y+ Y% D) x
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。# Y% g5 S% J- e
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# K1 M& q1 X# q- T3 t: D% [! y; r5 x
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 3 [! e4 ~) Z4 f( f5 J0 q" J8 ]5 t- j （责任编辑：杨海洋） 5 L) {! W9 l; n4 a' j3 K& H ) c4 u; {9 e) P0 o1 XRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. B; B% U; G) M$ S- ^9 C
" }3 }0 I" z8 iBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 F; c+ v4 e, S% s+ ~: X 3 `0 t! e4 W* ^A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / R F! d! A0 D9 A" }+ G- |1 N H0 a4 z8 P) k% f, E
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / y4 U) L2 K/ W3 a3 l+ G1 \' ^+ |$ i9 x: l g1 K
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + B2 ~4 Z7 e) x) ^9 d5 S3 R1 }# Z2 P; I! C2 E1 @ R' q/ @- ?% f" @
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) U. ^' L( r7 g2 N# _ 2 @ i- _3 i! k2 x$ L2 cFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) T3 L# L1 t8 J7 r- [5 P- L j% G; E& \
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . H7 G* T; ?' N2 H7 y. z V0 H; m6 q: l( I& V
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. d# D- A$ m5 k+ Q$ y- U+ E! a% g% |% \% k, n/ F( q0 m
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; C, L2 U6 j. A% ]- }. I; \/ y/ U) O0 T% T0 b* t
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 X9 a- ?; d- l
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! b7 T7 t0 g3 n e2 R; F7 @
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' a% ]6 z, y6 H
) X! ]" p& @: C2 M" b8 ~China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * M- ~; ?8 a) y: ~& e0 k* k4 A6 _/ Z' b( b4 r2 T4 y. @5 `. I
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' o3 R: v* n- s) x) I & Y' L: Z* F3 U) N1 ?4 oInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; n% J m# U4 V6 \- _; h3 c! {9 {1 ~: ^& Z/ w
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # M3 M& e( B8 K% t ; w' ^- ^" X# PGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 b) T- U' r% ]% C& `8 Q4 e
$ Z' H# A5 m l5 o, M# m: }# HThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
