外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 + H8 ?+ e, Q# N$ `, U2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 0 `) Y5 [& l( ?6 a0 ?) Q9 U0 e- N9 Y# a
) _2 A2 o9 y! J- C' b) e+ f6 o
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 : f5 P$ x5 W* Z, M' u; C, [/ S$ T2 M3 o. {% ]8 B- r& v
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。! F! I! O M3 o& f$ K# C" f0 s
0 E' V6 m- g/ j& j' W 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 % v7 {: Y! K" |! N8 J' t+ w * A- ^- v2 o7 H; q9 y: I$ I 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # [4 I# M* o; \9 Z# P2 ] 4 T4 D G: [' x& r) I5 v* Z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。0 Q, R: \, k8 w; ?+ Q) E
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。: F8 ^7 Q5 O& }7 i( m- V
% C" K5 \$ [8 s
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 ~9 z, T' T# O6 F6 s- d/ Y4 u% T. P （责任编辑：杨海洋） ' g: d2 q: o$ j5 r' [ 9 g* l! c. _# `5 \ T6 VRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ; Y" ^# e4 {: u8 h4 I; X6 J , M; x" a5 `" x! U- B. `" T% h2 dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + J0 ]% H# A( ]& p
$ l. Z) h! [; I; Q* \* s, Z
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . v; h y# W5 S' d
4 Y! w+ r5 }- u; S7 p- d
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , M) z* @ m5 L- Y " B9 t) ?/ P( \( NAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 F/ O" e9 r8 p( \3 v6 a7 v* U m/ b V6 d
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : {/ n- Z8 Y5 \5 \5 u6 B, J" R: c. n+ L! Z) v8 a C
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' y( V, j, l$ j# [6 L
" j* F$ x, v0 R5 D* IThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! X' X/ j, m7 i' |* A
2 h- i4 A, e- W" j% v
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' [/ P1 Z, B8 F4 z" k
" `" r0 r# F5 WIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 e+ r5 }) a" E+ y s
2 Z4 \9 A% u ]# F ^Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) j$ n8 r- w# u; t4 q% I8 Q
8 j* ~. `, F' @; S" WThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & m. {, Z+ i ?* I9 k3 Q9 `
% l! R; \! j0 e% PUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % z3 ? Z7 ^. I& z$ A. ]/ `$ o' T8 t9 Z* |, m' u) g3 @. E/ X
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 w3 k# g; Q' J7 I% E7 |" m2 i& q4 H& L r& l( {
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : A% x* n \) b& S# d0 g6 l , Z9 P0 K5 Q9 D# _5 x0 OInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 I! c+ M5 Z9 e6 H " l( O; n" m& o# g/ I"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 Q5 L3 [% O V : S. a5 d; E+ SGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & i e( C& l/ ~; @) R0 X1 @* n7 V3 I7 k* l# J
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
