外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年/ R a- U& c9 ] J" p+ e3 t
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 8 s# i+ j1 K( Y6 t7 B5 S& s/ _6 {: a o' `) k" e
3 g: o- l( R( b5 g% V% q/ U1 k: G4 p中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 " g" p/ N% `% q! ?8 g 6 l4 T, y" r7 P) ^# g 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。5 J, B5 D+ J! S5 r9 A
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。* }6 v5 X8 a* l
/ ]; b5 u q* G6 Z$ M5 {# v9 B 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。% c. | _$ `; r! o
p: {4 F4 ^' E+ e 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ e0 s+ w. {; c" x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( z/ H$ ~# @0 Y
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 8 A. G, W7 x5 m# [! `" @# f( N/ F& D) R/ c' U （责任编辑：杨海洋） 2 T0 b' i- C5 @% ~, x 8 x1 j+ l3 J n: k7 Q, P" t6 o! _5 VRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters b( ]# H! Z5 g' t. o4 A' p 5 ~( @+ h( ~' X# S3 yBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & q) H' f2 Z' Z! D- b/ ~. t5 S 3 ?+ r+ r6 P- K1 s- Q1 ]' ~A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 N, o8 b, \1 w
5 C6 ^7 T* ^- y, VLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 Z, x/ M3 O7 O. G8 u3 }: a7 q
& B6 p7 p! v! D% T/ m, nAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 y: x7 F4 d' j5 E# M x, Y8 {' e! ~
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' p- b5 c$ D8 a3 C+ P% }/ Z! V: J. c8 K6 e
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / X- H2 z1 I$ V # I) ]9 \/ A! TThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( i: {. D8 y- g$ k0 C9 s( H: k ) K* ^* ?, E+ M1 w$ _! u7 t" L"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) u# p: B1 q6 S. a) J% _0 `+ m
3 G. ^& O9 t7 \+ w, E2 rIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 }: ^% t! k& s' L! d; u) U
/ n; K( \8 y+ u0 @Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 x+ ?4 O# E. a* V1 J1 [
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & W) \* m8 b0 r, f' U 9 w, [' n6 {0 hUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * m, S% Q& ?+ W
6 {2 n, G& u7 l0 rChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % |) X# s* V4 Y" y* V# K
, R8 }0 m3 g/ F! e7 \+ t2 JIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 Z' y. V* H" q) s) t& l: b% w* ^9 n( f* p0 M9 j' c0 w6 m
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. {- s, G: }- ~ , G2 |: F3 U/ l2 J) R% \" N"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 @! G" s( }& w( O) A/ W0 E, F 3 N$ n$ X2 Q6 ]% GGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 t" H1 n2 x! O( x+ _ d" w# U5 c
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
