Y& t- `/ F7 W7 t9 o$ w5 e# i中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。: H7 A) _3 Z; S* T! ]5 X% L4 p' N
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " L3 O+ E5 n2 V# `6 x 7 k: D4 F) b$ u; f: v6 W7 _1 T 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 * ^9 V6 w0 |4 ^5 b6 n- e# G 5 _2 ^7 o7 Z8 q" C: d# n 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 g% x; s/ e' y5 b6 a
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。6 S V' n) K6 N# _& d* ~5 `
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 1 e" |6 k5 j) R$ ]8 k, g% q g# G9 E! L6 x- T0 \( C1 X5 l6 {" _
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 Q# }* m6 G& o: `
& s J6 z1 ^ \+ Y$ a) p （责任编辑：杨海洋）" F! [ b- `/ w: \' i& V
' U! j" p# ^7 Z8 M$ B1 hRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& W' f8 ]6 Q+ k* l
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * W" x4 }1 b" K 2 s8 Y9 k8 N0 J; x4 HA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 s5 m% D7 g- r8 T* I {* O9 Z6 m' i
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' c3 z, `0 n+ d; C 6 }4 a6 P! O6 _- f& z5 _After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * G0 z3 e. n, t0 ?9 T4 V
2 E# m# f% ?& S7 z( F2 I3 cRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , L% j1 _7 ]! ?' j8 \# R0 u% c( }0 x
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 T4 A$ q4 V, r% o4 N7 {! n. E 1 x# E f v; ~: LThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & U7 n. W9 l! r8 O( I: C
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / C; {/ T0 Y% h
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * M# `" k6 N" }! C7 @' G ( a' ]8 C* m& _( x* }8 ~Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . E5 y% q- F9 Z 9 j6 U! ^' j( @$ Y" U W; nThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) }8 \4 |5 D1 v6 I5 V7 i
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ G! ?3 `* o/ C; `" c6 P
0 E' E! W; V/ y6 f% E, y6 HChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; y& |0 b c- o) }- ]5 G & q& b" o9 z2 r$ ?8 e/ L, FIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 i3 d3 v) m* ~2 k. K4 S0 }5 m! O 1 v# `+ \6 x. H, Z% ?8 [ p: JInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / q; F" x, ?; P, x9 c2 [' X 5 E7 o% P3 k3 E- w: x"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # }4 H3 y% o) _ , V1 P6 L* t9 c( hGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! c0 x& a8 y+ S$ U. P0 E" V f7 {5 g) p# O- z3 t1 W, @
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
