外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年& E$ B# W9 D8 x" y- H l) z
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 : D" j1 n+ ^4 B2 h% W. z& f 9 r: v9 q) `" _3 f % k. h5 ]6 P$ y' Y! f1 o5 i, h
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。. X- S! T6 F4 }+ R$ L# s. x! s& p
/ ]7 J9 Q. A8 ? n' N 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 5 V9 W9 H' O4 i& r, A a- I6 C b. e: k- U% X% R P- J* R 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 ^" O' F% C% k% c' K- w, J$ x6 o1 r8 c K6 W7 t% E3 f
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ; N- \" J1 s, E, S 0 L9 o$ g& Q3 o% ~ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。* _3 o/ G% D3 c0 T- n
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ! ] ~9 d2 p8 o: ^$ c/ \! s7 [& T" B* w' ?$ Y0 d- Q! T: _
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。1 p7 {7 v. o& |+ R* `5 {! r
5 p: A' ^1 E) e3 Y) f- n6 b& x（责任编辑：杨海洋） 9 y* i9 }7 s O/ ^: o8 {7 a, ?( j( }( C
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# c( ]/ R5 a. N
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 k& c" e3 u( |, y5 }5 W& z, T$ j5 D. J/ W
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 N0 y3 D% M, M6 ^6 B8 i% w. @% k4 O
$ j* T( @4 _. uLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % ^: H+ Q; H# ~6 N
& E1 Z9 O( a4 XAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . l' T6 u, @- L7 C/ i d' m; \9 U/ }( t# g( X& WRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . U7 }5 P1 j( Z1 p) R% ^7 _( `+ Q: }2 P' w
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * L& j% i' D/ m9 ], C; y" M# y; \6 }9 a8 s% b$ X
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / e6 S6 m4 S* f0 K. `+ ?
{1 ~8 v$ E3 d$ {6 q2 h" }"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : Z, J# C+ J+ c9 A3 h0 Y* z; g8 f9 E3 _
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + V* a9 ]" {' U b5 O4 R- x' x8 J; D4 i5 @/ h
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( D/ W, U" x: K! c* A; r / @1 Y) E- q& s5 _) s/ OThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 F3 I) D2 ?3 ]" E, L! j( E- i# ?% d# h1 [
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 i! @! X. x& l- Y/ K) z" P' {
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 ?& U7 k4 j* V6 L
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + v4 A6 c. R1 ^; a $ h1 M I: \8 g) F9 HInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 @. d* R* a! F& }/ H
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. Q/ \( K. b ]; j$ z4 e+ H# l& z: g3 k- i, x+ {; {5 [
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & P+ A, R; x% E, L
