4 c: o8 J d' m! P1 g 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' `( a) c' v$ ?7 k2 o' X
) ?9 ~) a6 K2 ]2 a# Y9 H 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 + t9 `3 a) I- s" _5 f" t 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 0 V( J5 m1 v+ t3 e ?+ B/ Z; B0 h6 M8 |% K; l0 ~- d
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 X" l+ r+ M! r6 Q & u& `7 X, \4 L（责任编辑：杨海洋）) z" V$ y* ]) z" F% b
# M; w3 m& Z; O6 ~' uRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. W( p: ~: L2 C, G
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 D. D* g6 `0 |* v* {3 z# E" c+ a* P5 p$ f# i
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 X' Q7 m8 B% k2 B' Z
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 A" Q3 r j i, V! L
6 A: i/ B2 ?& ]After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 5 y4 b3 E9 P# o5 k+ e7 \ % A K9 i$ f" e% F* r- c0 vRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 r8 E# J- u0 O' S$ Z2 }5 F j, M) o/ K6 o F# gFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / m$ _3 \1 U) {: ^ d0 ]- ] * E" O n3 |8 R% E' o$ f6 n* V' hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % {6 v: O7 ?! n9 a7 y4 w8 Y
! x) G- o& H1 b; _6 s- p; ?"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . K$ N. ?/ u$ M& r7 @5 C& p, m8 o. c5 G5 g# t
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 k4 P! j4 q' D; ^" G
, X: F- p+ p* t4 |" g" M: qGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 G( V+ O' M# v. Z9 ~( Q* ^ 3 z# o" C* J) ?" ^That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ Q7 l5 V+ l( }1 m% j& I _
/ m# ?1 d' M+ T; f8 V0 ]7 w% }Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . K/ B o9 u" \# ?& P
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 b$ @% z! ]8 p3 x$ B0 Y8 G5 N
+ f7 N0 b; V: E% K# @, eIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! y+ j/ f$ W! e8 L
" r& a$ a5 i' Z- b' E" NInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 R6 b% M8 H) |+ J* O* V0 O3 t: w- A! C/ r) R, `
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : B0 @) t3 t* Y% m% |& X0 d+ q3 Q' J, }7 E |9 N
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * t; C6 |; w$ I , I2 a1 l1 B6 D; P; a! FThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
