外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 / N! Z5 C) L8 R: Z' e k: X2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞$ m+ X* }1 G2 T) D/ \9 ~0 ]: d
5 i6 n7 \+ k/ m! T $ O9 M( n- u; |2 f$ i* U" z( o中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。, T- z0 p3 A8 R5 k5 O
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。: c$ G. P; O- v1 x4 G
2 X- A/ _. I9 J3 E' X( Q; w 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 " ?; a5 I! t7 N. W; E 6 h* s) A- N% \8 R( l 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ T4 S% V1 |+ w, v" X5 W" q
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。) t' q) O! T _: q( e q
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 / [) f- Q) | ?5 r# \5 O6 s4 s' J. j
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' P: {* @% E5 X/ {1 k, ?3 i3 u ' x' M0 @6 }/ Q; \* u4 B9 ?7 E（责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 M& h3 I/ k" U3 b* i* I$ h; Z. W& ?) l" D- A* _2 }' r' R( b3 B
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ `3 z9 ]7 g* N7 i3 i% m
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / Z* K) H8 ?8 d! f 5 R) ]% ~. I& b, ]6 N8 j# p( S: QA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 K) C z0 a. u4 v( [) z" J2 c 2 u% H1 d3 v7 V& T# K1 l5 WLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / l3 ^; ?( i0 C/ \+ d9 ^9 e
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , j3 I& E6 Y# `4 @$ t
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 X( _. X/ Q$ V1 D( e/ E ' ^ a, l8 ^( b+ j- NFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / D' e: Z7 P+ a$ Y3 {0 t
4 H0 g6 p; R) ~ DThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 K m7 y% `5 l/ s, i( q. ~: i7 G7 \0 d
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / s, `! n4 m* O4 L( J [* \
+ E2 l4 _% j' K3 r" oIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & k( a8 x4 p# M4 q8 P+ O: O0 l+ }4 O& T* @1 m
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 K; D8 u6 |' N, Y- w' B0 w
9 H: O b& y& {& eThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 A3 W% `' a+ l% u3 E) \ 8 h3 _/ i4 O7 {. A3 s, UUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( d! B9 b$ ]( Y7 q7 }+ P/ B$ o R" I
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + x7 a% i( ]& G ' P+ K0 R6 i- HIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / s4 k+ {$ N: A3 S; d' D , C1 r) G! I1 yInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. m; X' o( j+ r, D; N& m! @
: ?2 Y% k( G( V X. N"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( g6 h u5 w! C/ k
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 M _ k& G# S1 k) t5 m
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
