' [, ^5 H% T8 U% R. _# b中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 / {& K- u; x5 ]# e. }2 ?! e9 ~) [3 o# L
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 1 L5 K9 [# ~9 R4 ~, d& M. K7 I+ E/ N; Q. ?, e
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。! v" @' _2 A. }) k0 c3 s
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 |: ?% W7 U" F# v ]) g2 `% d
- S6 S7 [( C, ] ]; h 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( @7 b9 K, F! u
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。0 B% U6 p& v- A- @# N) {% b3 I
2 D) o& z1 Y- o+ `. g 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。. D! l0 y2 a' V' O$ @: c0 [2 _" S
, C0 @- T& v6 X% F （责任编辑：杨海洋）" T) V9 ^+ J, k. T6 e8 D4 s* K/ z
' ~2 p5 y5 T, c. B3 KRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters- U7 Q+ W) ]0 L8 u9 }% w
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 u9 r$ L; @$ X( V& _9 G
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; N. H. P1 y: _* C' t9 }# ^) ?" A+ B5 t+ u9 f. w7 C) s; B. T/ H/ k& P/ {
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' T; `- c4 l; {9 ~4 V
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * q6 t$ W/ i* E) e8 |9 K6 u0 E7 x2 Z" _0 a7 S+ O; P9 d) f
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ r/ d8 c/ U7 Z0 p. e* g. r 2 ~' M. G0 L2 Y- P9 iFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / J6 D% o9 a$ e& V$ |7 t1 F
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; w: n. S. J( o+ j5 y" g4 B9 e- Z' M* d! z0 E' [& y( c* U* n( b- k
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( K% v _' e+ p8 B. H: I
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 w3 N5 R0 L, J3 l: W 7 e# L- T9 i. A, XGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % U3 r' U6 l7 R( V1 V* P
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 \$ z h% }( y8 ]' l
M& ^6 v8 N2 ~) n; UUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 8 ^% F' K, V$ D3 s2 O
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 p+ E7 K1 J' H/ I
% ~0 I" ^2 B+ l. K* @( YIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! z4 I" i) @% ? Y' B4 g
F1 y8 F! n5 xInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ X1 m" {6 J n* M
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. * f* A9 }0 M+ s; l$ k+ _- I& V % z6 D6 M& v& v$ g$ _Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - u7 p. G* D" U# o( g2 m1 L. J: V
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
