9 I! y7 r1 }9 g中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 * Z8 T. N- ]" I! h5 t" \% p ! f, |2 |* G- Y$ G 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 & j% r/ a3 T+ z9 V% `" \, W0 U+ L7 G) ~/ b
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ; z2 T: ?, U3 g( h 6 @8 E& s& K* R0 P: E# U; M 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ y* ^1 ~- L9 h4 ]1 G; d. t6 Q
* a' S+ H, d4 t5 T/ o 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 & e" w! n: R# l6 u 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 . S' y7 ?9 |' B" K3 |% ]" D+ P: d: w1 E% Z
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ! o. \. S: R9 o2 W8 _2 ? + a7 a8 r% w3 f8 e7 z/ F（责任编辑：杨海洋） * N- R0 }7 g; w* D; M7 Z$ `& r 8 U% Z1 |7 j9 `; ^Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters3 N; L* ], t# t' o. j( L4 w
; C) f: Y k* d% d: _" S7 V9 A5 fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( E r3 q* n6 {! w) B2 e7 J8 k
+ Q4 p& u. v5 J/ I3 CA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 M+ U" N, T6 w/ i6 |3 a7 r/ K4 t5 Y
, i: v. r( ?( C6 K9 W5 h4 H' q% \7 oLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. F! e$ W0 D, f/ w+ J' R2 @ 0 Z" x( l. R/ V* v5 t2 ^* u/ rAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 G; f3 m6 B% x! ?
9 o5 p, ]/ S& v* }- h' S% _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 o4 l0 s% n. r" p2 V+ P7 W' D# z
9 U6 c- J* ]) ^( pFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 P" L( S' t5 U% R% \% G6 x! F, J: l0 z W4 ?
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! C% a% G1 C( M( J5 k 6 v1 U8 Z/ S4 ^4 I"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) Z3 J1 A( ^5 Q: m4 Z
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # ~1 Q7 K- Q- a# K1 C7 T, ]
* }! N0 a0 X) h0 E0 ~* HGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 e8 ?2 B. o: z - z* t+ K. y: @* ]7 S2 a1 \1 ZThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / n/ |4 o' N" S; c7 \
* j) W2 y* T! p( [% i$ k: hUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 z3 i6 K) Y* a/ @( A4 `& q% b9 h # S) Z2 A2 e% q& E; I$ q/ s9 VChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : C! Q- B: l$ Z/ c! w+ N2 a& ^7 S0 \8 z# P! a, m* _1 |0 e6 K
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 Z" x% Q. D' [3 W4 ?8 ], a }( ^7 b2 T! `# \" f
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; \# z6 `$ _4 t % _5 b. v8 p' y9 k8 V2 [& Q"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. E8 u& P6 P! E( _8 m
& }4 o- R+ C, r8 AGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * e6 \1 n0 O4 i8 f: L# c, p6 n0 `; V W: |
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
