5 G) Z6 G. C6 f- C% x) F0 G' ^（责任编辑：杨海洋）; L7 o( `! G9 s5 c$ r
; D9 G! J! ~* Y5 z! b7 DRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 W( T, @( F( e ; ]7 M& ]: Q" m5 TBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 f: A: G9 i5 B/ Y8 S - ?$ s3 S6 Q' i/ ]" BA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . A, v% `) x' [" F* L0 \
" T2 J, {" w% |. d2 pLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " b ]( E' h- c7 g2 b
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 b& j% E3 A6 u/ ?, m" M" O
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 K; {; t% I6 U g) d. o- M4 o/ K: t6 Q' |' S5 N
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; b' r4 J2 X8 S
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - J, s% O1 H* G/ K. |. G; R2 e# r+ {
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : S9 s( q% X3 m: b
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 l8 t: m s: X* I4 R/ [$ _
1 J5 H% z4 H: p) pGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : H ^& a1 b. X- b" W& Z
# X: M5 R Y0 U+ Z; eThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 `- u$ g- {9 v: P) y0 T& I& V $ g9 H+ e/ |* H8 \ I+ T5 k9 MUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 s# K* D$ v( f" b3 A+ R & l) C) W6 ~8 A, [' T: U( x* O3 cChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * F" h1 H4 c7 ^" y9 s) g W
4 ?% S& Q9 u3 D# dIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( j h; B$ D5 O$ j2 B! b j# |( e , }: `' A" f' W# S' b n. rInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 P3 y0 A( V; c9 U4 L& m# S+ [* ], E$ m" p; x
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # c: u: T6 f& @ N& \- K2 ^ A+ K6 w9 J$ _1 t
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & N0 u# W1 i! B6 }" E0 R# }* y3 {: \: t/ R( y& q
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
