外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年) o# T0 F; J# }3 ]- E# a" a6 {
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 " U9 s9 i8 z. ?' S6 g( f; j3 D. e% s$ b' Y
/ [/ K* c5 m# b6 A中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。4 s! t! I8 v, [, ^9 _1 q8 A$ c
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ! [' A7 ^8 P6 |& M+ k , U2 [3 d _$ \ T 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。% f# i! w1 u/ g2 a; Y
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 D% T' R4 h3 a! `* f, Q2 x
; b+ J8 ^' P8 X 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。1 p% f) M; z2 f; i: i
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * [, D) P; T" M; O! h' c ' e h" H& P: C* y 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。" r0 D9 Z& \! Y/ O; K4 w% T3 n' R
: g8 O: p/ M1 Z ` （责任编辑：杨海洋） , T ^& _5 q9 [9 a: _& G* f: F1 w3 q& ~& i' Q! i* F0 d
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 C2 g: Z6 L: W0 m
, e1 y- ^- s( V, p: \BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 j' f) C# b9 `( U6 M8 [4 ^- u 1 p4 J1 W) w* sA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 E3 a+ v8 i+ M n8 z; F
( D8 A* i0 e$ o) PLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 J' |6 p. G' t# G" x% [ 1 }2 b$ e" k' d6 q1 G: N% lAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # ^2 s0 G4 v# K. L; P+ ^' @ A9 j, y: @/ i
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 M, m3 h- z: e8 g, e# I: i# m! L1 d
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % y1 {9 K) D8 b3 B7 [( k1 W. \5 \3 |( Y
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / z7 j1 ~4 b+ D+ G7 s u0 t5 `
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & H3 ]9 S- C) {, u" ^
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 p b x. ~& }% I8 V0 [2 T# ~' x . M X0 f6 S) ^; vGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 k2 j% w% ?& F+ P
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ E1 ]+ R+ R' m" I L* W0 _% G 7 E" n2 o6 |# r9 b! ?. X5 ~% O3 qUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 D/ \/ G' ~1 c; G# W# P! p& m
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + Z- p0 _4 ]( R3 u& s5 d6 j3 L, Y9 I1 z z# i, ^: g
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 S# A {) m. _! o/ l$ b ; F. H9 V& E- ^" f! i+ gInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * q: \4 @% m: I4 D! s4 B; n$ Q1 Q
7 ]& W/ |+ e D' C. ]& h: ?. ?"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 d& }) X0 H6 U9 f2 y4 I
- h; U3 L5 j w; oGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 v+ Z" L- ?+ K: q- s8 I h! P # p! H- y" p k, P+ rThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
