外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 . u' {0 R/ M! e4 F6 `, K n# G2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞8 `) \: C' _# G% r
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。. x; V& N7 h) j
" S# j, r" G* n 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ) G) N7 f* e; |1 c ! ] P% G( o( K6 f, j0 n 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & ?4 c( N. a' X* p : u) G- e2 d1 k 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ! A0 q& i, T. e% S$ w 9 J9 b w- S, y 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 - S6 c8 }+ M* f 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ' N( |% n7 Y' d F. a/ n% v6 j0 \0 a. c/ V' W0 p5 U( X
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。, _: f$ Y; M" h, F
8 e# P0 l0 l# S7 g（责任编辑：杨海洋） ; G, L8 c9 o8 p $ x1 ^5 Q& n+ J7 ]: TRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 1 W% t5 I- T5 ?5 |( ~( r& w2 r) Y T: J4 b( Y- }) i1 \& @BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 A0 J9 [0 P0 c# P
0 w3 x: r+ }/ U" {" TA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; q5 u/ q! g6 {$ i e3 Z8 F ) s1 o8 \# e! I% {3 r0 gLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * c: x3 p" f1 H# _/ V9 B, u t: s `+ [0 r2 |( e/ kAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ @8 D: e$ p2 c" V
, p" r2 T$ X& q1 E/ {* P/ yRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " x$ d0 z/ U6 V% P3 f' n6 L/ o
2 A4 O5 j$ |/ }First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. u* u9 N! p7 W3 S/ `/ V 0 C. P e0 d7 G% S/ nThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; t2 X- H [$ c9 B 6 I0 p' D( M: o# ?$ c- D0 c"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 _( l( J( [. D/ U ( W) ^8 N6 Z0 |' j8 `In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " [5 D3 r K* ]: |4 R1 v
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 d" Y* Y1 p3 n9 D
8 A) T& Y: x H1 j8 e3 CThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # n' _# H$ B: |# G3 B3 r6 h2 I6 ^3 t. }, v- j
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 M/ h/ S7 t) T9 {% p9 N
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # A: ~1 D$ z7 v/ W6 s" k: W+ t( W; ?' B8 X8 | x3 m; W0 k; b
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , y1 o6 G' \" D- O2 ~) q
" f) F3 i6 k" ]8 D" i- r: [International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . d: e+ z' H* N, A7 e' A. V
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # ^6 \* ~4 m& g 1 k% j! @ V" @# Q% }Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - p0 U. e4 Y; f1 m o$ S( |, i S. `( j6 U. H: d' s& w0 u
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
