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标题: [中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑 [打印本页]

作者: Ampelmann    时间: 2010-8-19 07:33     标题: 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年# u$ ^- h+ Z- q  l% }, t
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞
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4 e0 N( Z1 R, B- I, O5 C中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。" b( O; N+ q3 a! }) T

! l# C& O8 @$ l, K, L0 S  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。8 F6 f# `8 }6 j* ^4 \8 G9 K5 d4 g
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  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' i; w$ \1 |, X# c
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  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 O$ d3 ~1 d1 o% P2 }5 d

+ G! j, v. J1 M' w2 |; u  \  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。
; B5 Z5 q; f, }1 K& a# Z. i9 \4 [. `, y  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。
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7 Q' N$ R, X% b/ p/ N  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% o( N% Q( P: F9 d

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3 i# w- G3 A4 t8 fRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters, l( B" S& P/ ^4 M1 ]4 ]

6 {; z6 }6 j, L# h' Q- k1 i+ ~BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows.
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- C6 v, P, x  dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! O5 J* n8 r: V0 @
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 i) C+ }" F, B9 W' h  s1 T

% }7 H" T* T- h* D) WRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 f8 A4 G0 w* M; l+ Y5 X
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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& v# I+ O1 N2 c5 z. ^& I  J8 NThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 r1 d; E3 p% D9 H9 i8 p
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' x- M, T& x" Q

; b* S1 w0 O* k' RGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ a6 w# B3 A+ T" A

2 l* S1 D8 H" Q; V0 h  u5 g8 ~That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office.   V5 v7 f" q9 u6 S9 T
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 \8 W( t/ L5 B" q1 ^: L  V  B

1 f+ \' w% V+ }" X4 ]/ j( }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : c, ~! X1 \8 k; Z; l, M

9 @  M4 s/ P* ^7 a& |* cIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ M. F. i! m# \9 J0 [; b" E- R
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : E! R# ?+ ]* J% H- V2 l8 p

- i! g! o1 o/ j"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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1 h# G( Y$ T6 w$ R6 iGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.
作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:26

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作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:27






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