* X0 ~1 m, P- o% U6 m* n7 ` 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。3 d# T/ i: O, R1 [5 \4 |8 }1 ~8 B
4 q/ O! O4 g0 B$ q1 E7 M1 ?" H （责任编辑：杨海洋） 6 ~; J( F4 a& @' h$ t) [9 S0 F* ~" C) G' U) T {. Y' X
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 ~& ^1 h" v# m3 f, P& p9 b W/ F3 B8 w- G) n! N
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * D0 S H# Y X6 D - `0 o3 R! B+ a( R+ P% D8 ~: T4 {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' f, S: u( h% H6 u+ U( {' c/ O0 H, i
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( |% @: K9 ]8 l6 Q7 B& k+ U
9 g( m* U0 _5 mAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) Y' P7 n: ~# g+ M9 X
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ; W, r9 K' l: f* v - _2 b; j$ `* a; NFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 ~* Q2 l4 z, v, R* N8 L% x! s3 H6 p+ i2 d, C2 k3 e8 u
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. m& P1 w' v0 H$ t% G
3 `% R+ q8 [3 h7 Q1 t1 Q"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 n3 ?. ^0 z- P( ?' Z 6 K& `; |$ w+ I- X7 aIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # d8 W6 R6 T/ K3 z0 b" U _* w9 u4 R5 ~2 lGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 s7 _0 a. O# e. ?. T3 Z. x
; O$ L/ V, a, cThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * q$ b' t3 s5 }; L" }: `. h: \! u: T 1 k/ W$ [8 ^2 y5 s8 h8 J9 iUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & Q) t+ S1 V! ^9 Y6 u
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 Q8 e" ^; F& O# } t$ W ' c9 @/ J6 p7 P! H& bIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! i. S3 J6 T/ x6 c( r9 q) d9 h ' Q3 Y- L6 ?, T1 M r; O }( g( r1 _International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 Q! B! c, r. Q6 ?/ B5 h- k6 P% p) i: n. ^% F
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 f; R2 C6 }2 K9 d9 K/ \: H' |" y. Y. g+ g F: q" [ I
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. |# j' E. G! O+ e7 q( Q/ l: n& R M , k' ?- G: g, m6 `% i& G& uThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
