外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 7 Z* M' C1 i+ e1 Y9 ]+ Z2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 4 i/ w `( Z" O) ~. c2 ~ 2 ]: N x- }4 }0 D* a6 D 3 G I! b% e7 @7 x
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ?! d9 g: H4 S9 C! c3 S6 v 8 v4 |9 k- p1 S" f2 O, {/ E 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。2 q2 t/ v. P# Z& T/ \$ Q
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 Z* \! I+ }- ]3 x9 i " U1 }! J$ R) L; Z7 v1 n* z2 z0 ` 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( x, M8 o6 J9 M h6 u3 F
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 2 T4 K3 ?* {4 { M7 ~. x# s" R 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" P' h7 b# \7 V3 |- J% k% S9 d
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 + ^& l4 t) n/ v" M" \ : b- J) ^ y8 Z（责任编辑：杨海洋） $ J) b$ w& f, O8 B4 U: e1 W( V V' v% X4 J& }+ x$ ~# U# X/ r$ n- a
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters " j+ \0 ?$ ~5 I( O' d4 @7 p% ]2 }- t2 y
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + I1 J& r( o0 V4 o$ @$ F
4 z. _6 }# y R0 }" oA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " [8 e7 M; E5 P, Z F / l6 V" j, N: bLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ E5 U9 h. I+ T; s% a, z B& u! M; l9 T
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( @7 R- m6 |% |- g9 t0 U, ]! K7 p; ^7 a* `1 \2 u1 C
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % ?1 Q; N' y" ]6 t ; J/ \. U) `% p6 H$ AFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + b" Q2 ?9 n* _, N9 y6 s6 O* D' Q& [2 \& w6 j# u
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & j% ]8 Z) M+ r/ N7 {1 o) Q1 j" a8 M2 E( ] ` N
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 [2 Q, o. O8 o8 R2 g
! H; t& \$ U! Q7 c( R- lIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! o; S. O* l' Z e( k$ M6 i6 s: i! O
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % b$ e2 `9 w( z6 ?6 n& R - A- [7 R* t6 LThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # S7 _- D' W6 h8 a) D) E: w% A
. { e& q5 b/ k3 }! {Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - k5 t; h4 v: x" \3 e" Y* s n) ]5 p0 P4 u0 R
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " X' P0 i& g& |9 r
7 h) L0 S! ]: o8 n: n* h7 ~If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " S, {- j# p& F2 C 4 b6 O! h& O! |; QInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 H' X8 }2 E- R' F
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 j2 j# h4 g) ] ! l, Q% k0 q) v2 rGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 F; L: L0 ? @" F4 ? * K G' W1 u+ `% a. q2 RThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
