& k+ C! C! g. Y ? 1 B! m1 A2 U! _5 D中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ) `* k) R |- ^: B+ [% S " N) h, Y3 }$ w5 @ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 h7 S; W7 C" g3 P/ [7 e5 [# c; O7 }
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 w% P! @; a& y, O
2 h( @# \1 \3 w( @+ E. C 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ! ?9 g, @" u0 E- c6 q& W* x 5 K. Y6 s/ e8 i: x, ^% Y8 H 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ; H/ z+ r2 Q" l8 o) A 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 0 Z1 [ d! H) y; f6 k8 S9 t; O* d/ ?" Y9 N7 i8 o- J! U7 _6 G. ~( b# l
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。/ m1 x+ {+ y4 ~* o6 o5 A% Z# G
$ \* \: }0 H2 H { （责任编辑：杨海洋） : w3 Z* U! B# Y% [9 K6 m. C 9 e2 I( \9 u- N2 F% MRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 5 G5 \ ~0 P+ U0 U: [! p: X, y8 U$ P+ m& H% Y
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) G7 i: i k, Z& Y1 z. W1 Q- z
/ A8 |. i6 ^/ ^3 x" KA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / Z4 G; i, h6 _* w+ p8 ^1 _
% M1 u% k8 X! E( E+ _% J zLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. E% W# J- w4 c1 W+ q; \% E
, ^ d& f0 l) V. A8 i0 rAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 _5 q$ F V7 b& L1 [7 i# `# t' q, j; h6 d$ U
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . L7 B4 }( @2 f. o9 U& B% Y1 S; V" O$ v' c9 ~; ?$ h
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * O* S7 I8 S. \* M! t; m
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' W* d. {+ Z% @: h! u" z ' v3 z( D p, }$ d0 G( M k: ^"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 {& }6 H* ~0 B3 W7 M5 N' a; V% O, T4 L( V2 X2 f4 m+ e/ i& N- H
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - f9 z% Q. e$ a, C0 K, F
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' Z @+ a0 Q! t; F) r* R! @
( a, p# x" j5 yThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 S6 h; w( n- o2 V. {7 E
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % ~! S A0 w9 G5 Y0 |. P' l 8 B# x2 I" e/ \. @6 \China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 c2 q' U0 n! }! r ; y/ f: P1 q( N" H% s BIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / j. n+ Q; D9 _ $ H. L, i8 W, [7 d; o$ J! K" b ZInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + F7 K% M1 d9 G! ?' l
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 N8 a3 E8 `6 k; m" m$ L' ], W8 ~
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. `- ^" p4 N6 H' n8 ?
