5 p9 @6 R; A5 ~Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 h8 L0 m7 ?- L+ B
9 ?- Y# y3 U7 D8 {$ o- t
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " C" x2 ]* `) w+ v1 t & t! A( U/ {& M, M/ ~7 JA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 t) C* M" E# u, w! x4 G
* Z. X% A/ m+ K8 h9 h/ w$ I
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. d0 Z% r. K- k+ q2 K- L ( o1 ~- p3 I7 P! O3 |After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * ]7 a3 H6 Z" @+ W1 X. R+ h
$ D2 n0 Z1 [$ g- d; I" ZRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) J% w7 c( j0 n6 G' V& }; t' E
. H7 n c) W2 D+ ^( X
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' G0 t5 {' \" Z" E4 C$ `8 h! q+ Y5 [0 _- }7 F
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' N" h! J W8 `* M1 [! g 8 O9 A+ ^. d/ l7 y4 x2 g/ i$ m"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) v$ q% \. P6 q6 b
8 f) E- d6 J! \; v9 a, ~
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . \" c/ c! b' S5 p$ u! Y, a( \9 @
* X: Q1 T! K/ D4 u- qGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % f" g& Y# Q8 W- }( v: ?9 u3 q3 R 8 z; n1 k/ |* g5 ~1 p" \That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / n% N- Q, a- T + N) Y4 T( t# I2 N2 d# F) c+ qUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 l1 u4 H% S" K# L$ r# e: l+ a
( R' Y0 v. ^5 j& ?& j) f" W
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' ]- a9 L' v/ W+ D& U6 u) k! C+ P9 a' w! p% o* s l4 l1 N) ~
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . E! ], o& s7 \8 M1 @, \
* O" @1 F6 _- G8 l6 P5 H
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 t( W7 X$ r2 [" |2 s# `4 ]/ C# T : _! O" Y. }/ ?5 `% C"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 K& k _- F( F/ D: R) P " E9 n! ~( L0 J4 f9 Y- y4 j2 Z+ cGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! i5 [: L) O% P! s [% F 0 E: E. l* G$ x C4 CThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
