, c9 u& ^; r5 M" J! Z l8 c中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 A1 ?1 l3 X) N: @: ?/ h
# T3 h1 u* m; h0 `7 r& n 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ( s/ a. R( z: l" r0 f$ o" z c c5 A. N. D4 o2 R* [- Y 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' E. f6 k$ y, m% m& i
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( {- M. ]# u8 G+ S; e% {
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。" G0 k [/ g* @
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。, S, t. j' j |
# J. @: s2 b# R5 V) A4 C% B 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 C1 F1 R, M, w; F. p3 J
; @- ^* D1 _( ]1 bRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters% o" `1 @- ~! j- y! X
$ ]4 M \$ O! ~( t7 _4 B9 e! eBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 o6 ~. n5 {! w D3 P2 r, J 5 b* i/ Z# }4 }4 _& LA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 w( k" ?% w- A0 Z8 G$ I X9 u
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 j: `8 y( z& T. ~
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ^" O0 l9 T1 L0 L9 }; m- M4 { # t7 x3 x* I: ~4 x8 D+ CRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ; v6 ^9 M7 I. {6 p0 Z- {, _3 Q0 N' b. f1 R3 |
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " @. Q5 C& O! M
5 b: d* J! ?0 U) M; oThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " o: _# m4 E2 T
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' ~7 s5 f- w! ^
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + P: y u( a* X : `6 N8 S9 k7 R7 ?, J0 IGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * q" ?! Y' q, @: G( H
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( m4 i+ ?( g! Q1 \# Y; s& Z# |& ^4 H$ q' }; }
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * Z* s) X0 I& R3 u . ]1 U( s2 G, k- y V% gChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; D3 O, \( Q5 S* E& Y$ ?" e9 d. ]2 n$ E+ ~3 f
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! L& c" n% F; r8 {; K3 Q0 I
' w& F9 q) t9 C7 Q3 {International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 a' V( Q- A" V8 x. d
* m ^# d4 N2 x7 F; [/ ]"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 H" m! c+ y5 \
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( V2 Z3 f1 o3 \3 U$ H2 x- G
