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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。( _" i4 ]4 ?! J" O' l
0 A/ r$ x( c5 T0 w 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。( m* s: |4 ^5 E4 w! @
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 8 v" k0 x: b: {" _* k0 y T# ~: l ; h2 Q$ R. h+ U# T T( R 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。' C$ w* d7 p+ v
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。; ~$ h B6 h6 h
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & P' Y& E; ]* t/ s4 @4 r! ~3 a: ^5 a5 m. V* [
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ( O, `! p, |/ V: [- N5 |4 x6 C4 C! q% ]5 k9 U+ B. U4 e! R （责任编辑：杨海洋）; g" u' r: S4 y! ?* T4 \
. w, z) s# e% X5 KRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters & F2 J+ z0 E/ s" L4 {; U7 y+ R: X t5 n J% n$ L
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 g0 }/ s8 Y3 T 0 D1 `9 q/ T" Y8 p5 O8 uA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' Q! A3 ], {/ g, e; k
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * G- g- j" I$ y+ _4 v& W' Z4 s! N( ~. V
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 a$ F1 D+ a3 D, I, d- p 2 W. f( _8 f7 pRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 3 l+ i3 y+ J/ w# j8 K' q, c; I+ Q& \9 s# [& l( s5 K
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 m D- E& @: a" ^, _2 g
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 H1 s/ u4 D9 i5 W 5 I, |; J* w# @- f/ p"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * z q% K4 Q& a- D
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . r7 x, X x0 D$ _- ^3 n & L" x$ `; `9 Z: W- }Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' ]; m, P7 S: G- @3 D: A ( x# ]' Z+ S8 Z, u' G, A) Y# J7 TThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 v' D9 L I) X# O5 d
% i1 C) V- v2 \! u t3 j1 QUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * K5 J# h% s4 S0 W _
+ x' d6 W! `8 i. |$ ?China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ?' K5 \1 U3 V' Q# w' k8 O' G+ B
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 4 D, D" h0 q; u) y % g7 K8 @/ D9 G. t# lInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - e5 h% ^- `3 X- h8 t5 f0 t5 N% D0 k! t
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 F2 q% V. g: V8 Z! ?
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; F2 ]0 c+ e- e+ _0 b
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
