外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 & a. C0 t+ ]: O" P+ g I2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 $ s& L& {- j9 M" z4 u& X; ` 1 X6 T+ A# k9 v! r8 E " }/ V* m( n/ C9 b2 d/ A' O8 x
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。( Q* F8 n1 e, Z' _$ X
2 o* R7 q$ K V 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 , l3 F" z* V7 K- d3 B9 |7 C @; j# }1 n1 u7 c' f% x
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。1 F3 @+ l$ L% l8 R0 Z1 _+ o$ J
( V8 j/ N# e) s" |- X1 s0 g# C7 B 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 T6 V! w* Y& ]% }" O- }3 E
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( s! R1 ? x7 |' A4 e 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & L8 ]6 t7 c9 l+ Z, T5 t w: Y/ h5 x; u: V+ j
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 8 _: J2 |8 n# R& G, v9 p- m, ` . y6 a( @( C$ `. b! @. n（责任编辑：杨海洋） 2 P% U/ s$ j! Q: ~% k3 K0 u# h0 U, ^; E( S8 z
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 1 v: J! T5 K3 {, f& t' \ 0 I7 k3 f5 d+ O1 K' rBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # u4 h9 {4 N: s! L% Z8 |
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / n0 Y! v( ]- k. F5 l
, H; j- W. @6 V+ tLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 q9 i( D0 D7 l* C 1 D2 R: J Z' l) k: ]; q. OAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " L0 }, b/ C# V
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % `: T# D9 u- }' ?5 @
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . J: ]9 m* z/ S: e
4 c1 l- v* ~2 g, q6 |: XThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 V) c! J6 |) H# m7 Z. ? D$ ~
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & M* F, H: V$ o0 t" [% T8 D4 d2 b0 w& ~% ^
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 o l9 Y' P7 D9 O/ \ o& R- a5 P; z9 @: [. N6 ^' W" o' e
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 Y5 O( B' _" r3 }# C# L4 e& P" U, P+ L6 x/ ^3 f* j. s0 P& L+ b
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " K7 w6 h9 ~7 n7 g
+ s$ J. `! g- R/ z) IUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 B$ o# P* [7 \ ) S% |& g& F. k' z; _0 NChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # f# f; X# d X6 a
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ ~) e0 p. q! P" b 7 n9 U% L) N3 P' ?, s% J. {5 eInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( o0 k" ^% Z( l7 N8 B/ H! @
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; h; l* k0 i- |7 ?4 ]% U2 H
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( x* \2 }+ P8 R, L8 z
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
