外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ( P, g5 m3 U& R2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ; `# g- K+ U! m4 P' ^! [9 n* z7 |$ b* S5 K B
$ o, `' o/ U* c; X7 O$ e中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 8 X1 m1 J$ F+ [# [3 t0 O8 c6 A5 `* \$ A7 F2 y# [
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。1 j' E4 `, {6 l& u! h, C
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 s/ \+ P- [7 W1 t2 L. ]; S0 h$ e q' I4 Y9 V4 l0 x/ Z
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( d C# \& f S: X
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' ~3 I \" J& t3 } 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & c* K/ i- Z6 b! A/ a2 [8 E: k% W# x* [( h5 v
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 N+ O! f- E4 F9 l" b. b$ |+ g1 W6 m , E* m* i4 y8 ]. L% q8 m2 l9 M: M% q（责任编辑：杨海洋）# A; v0 s7 x r R( U0 r; s
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 h5 G! I2 T( h. F 2 `/ n4 |9 S/ o! x X/ W# cBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. h& A T) V. f4 f/ {* v1 C; r
: z7 j: [. {" `6 P- dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 7 {7 R6 H9 b& t9 u0 z8 f+ K4 T6 k% R" Z. b- E1 Y
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % [/ c4 A$ n& D+ {) w6 k }' r& i0 O7 Q3 c1 s* s
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % K; o5 |$ S% B) W& T& b% j7 n4 Z
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! @9 m; ^* h# x9 V8 w' @$ H7 E0 J3 w: y) X# }% l
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; S r/ I2 K' x: Q * @1 n i' o5 w5 ?This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ B( W9 k2 } _
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 _% z% Q p6 T/ F. f9 V
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , o: n9 M& m# L3 w8 s& v7 Y. G) ~5 ^& N4 f
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : c' w# k* V4 y% X
( }# d( ]+ Y' y$ w$ M3 g0 G* {That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / a c. N& J9 s5 S/ _% c! k5 Y! |( U% E6 [( J3 r
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 9 D ` h) r. Q/ h+ B ! p8 V, A3 m' _! MChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 }: Q# P$ l& I7 n# n5 @
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * s# f$ V1 h% h8 z
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' U" l8 X% D, C! A0 C( \! d; M9 F7 B& w5 _6 z
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 M; A& @3 T- _5 c9 J
) ^) b0 h7 y' ?5 _Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 E3 K& J9 s* u7 P" s
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
