外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ! N P$ {7 y/ N) A) T+ I2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞# U) A1 m/ f! [: U5 y( T
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。# Z4 q" y: J4 f9 n/ t' {
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。1 J2 M! Z% d: r6 [- x
- Q9 m& n d0 b J @0 w: k) d D& D8 z 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。) ]" w/ _3 a' @6 D
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, ]6 ~" r, R% {' K! W) X: }( B" o
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 b9 v; r2 b& A 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 $ e5 G, m% v" A. m9 A7 ?8 Z( q4 r9 s1 a6 i$ r9 g7 f
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 T+ U" P9 X) { y% M( t4 G u, E- k' G$ Q% |! M! ? （责任编辑：杨海洋）0 y# O( f3 D3 a# d) L ~4 R
9 O" D; I2 E9 v0 i& [: l$ iRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters # u- [, v$ c: K ( s0 }& N( e/ l* e FBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % I2 b- J0 F. l3 Y$ t 8 R) ~4 a! r1 H. x+ KA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 X$ L5 Q0 M" ^( H) C" F, L" E7 W! A0 ^$ }: \& v
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' g4 {9 D$ M# @4 C) o; P5 w# o" T# b: e/ c# C
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # W, C4 r& Q/ d: O, a* o
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 a! [# K, I8 x+ {' ? t' l! q. q, r. l+ `' D# _ o% G- v6 b
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . K5 o& H A; \+ y; e9 ]8 \ ) d0 {: M( D& KThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * B j2 O: X9 R% \0 F1 m # v$ _" A5 i. h% a% h"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % {, N9 R: V/ E" g: d 1 e+ O4 \; W7 c- ]0 z; L* vIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) b- `8 U1 W( E+ f2 O4 F$ ^; U; V# I. e p0 W
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 h G* X) N, b0 d9 b+ l
, B' |/ E; {0 |( s/ j% JThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ ~- N6 m: m. j5 \! ^9 @, O- I+ Z6 D; w9 _
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. , @6 @( S# s5 p n - H- S( B; q6 \! q4 x+ H( LChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : }1 \7 l3 N* c6 x! e2 H
* f' G# x1 l( ]0 X) yIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % u2 f2 Z$ i4 A$ T: n ! C' }; @* R5 i1 bInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & ~8 d4 e; x5 X' G# K 9 Z) v+ d& A" i"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 M4 A7 ?9 @* A x; Z- ?/ k2 {$ `6 X
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % d0 {2 N; u* p
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
