+ T% U; c* c: u/ Y& Q! c! w 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。4 v6 w( Z+ I/ c% P y2 O
3 p7 E) j8 A8 O) O# u2 Z" a. W 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ E, W0 { c% g9 e
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。+ B7 f' F3 j1 r
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & k4 [6 M; Z# W# a! J. s+ h' G' r6 g2 K$ s, K0 d3 [
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " \4 L6 @/ I% V! D9 v7 ^% M5 {# H5 M0 } a r （责任编辑：杨海洋） 9 q! K5 Q- q! }) K1 j5 w* Q& w; p+ ?" H. V1 S1 J
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters # T+ m( `# a; L7 Y 5 h6 V, F% U& C, yBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! Z% ?; H( J, y1 J8 c5 O/ J6 Z ) v I1 Q4 z! O6 [; P Q9 V: ]A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - o9 v! j2 r( {3 [9 @& x
) T3 a- Y+ e2 c- b$ q( K# J/ K+ BLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % G# J( H1 I X! G: r& ]! \
( z$ n4 v- b7 t, `$ I/ {8 H sAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 S# f- `% z# G7 M7 L A
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 O' @* v4 n. c" s
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , S0 |, C+ _, M4 X) N# l* } 2 W) i; i- r/ r' x: t2 EThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) c, K1 s# a7 m; g+ Z ! t9 s0 d/ `7 ~0 Y"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . ?) l0 R4 T0 U; _8 {% M. ~# w: l& K
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 O" P9 ?3 b% Z4 ~6 n 9 G5 x0 g$ k' U+ i0 x$ n. e# X6 gGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 D* c) x3 M1 M0 N; N' J9 Z: i- c) D
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 T0 Q1 t: |- A( U, K# C- X
6 T" s5 v+ C4 s# {. AUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . g( B1 y3 ^# I; W0 _5 b
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : u% @4 b% Z( t x1 [. ~6 M n$ x: V: [
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. R: o3 U m6 ~( {, k4 ]
5 j6 c6 c2 \5 E2 g3 H5 ?2 nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , ^# E9 W) o( Q$ }' {, z
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) f" }. g* }3 e; n# i5 t. ^ 1 _# y2 u1 }) n0 q% C4 h+ LGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 M2 z) y% y6 U/ @2 w3 {
8 D8 s. O% s6 LThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
