* x, a9 j' E+ K% g3 K 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' Z$ h2 s/ n7 B* M
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 L- F8 M3 k1 w" P" k
( R, X, a1 k( L6 b" `BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 ~3 ~, C+ ?, g* [3 @3 l. ~6 e& I: P) W5 O; U
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * Z- W! o7 v! i& J* v$ s& }. I
5 B: ?3 V1 K+ U8 [Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + X' a) j# V& t, I& P" H5 Q: B0 C( p6 G1 p8 u
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) Z# [5 a2 g; M0 C
z( d6 {+ Y6 ~Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , i J( a9 ~5 l4 T0 a
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) P' ~, e& j: g% w
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; Z9 m3 _ `6 @- Y- d. H+ h5 g7 @( e: F! y
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) E8 r& L4 I/ d3 B6 s) V8 y , a9 E+ o" Z" X( e- GIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. / j- t: g. A) h4 `: r4 V2 }
2 K: l, I( e1 f$ `: qGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 d: f# S9 B, F( b& F0 u( I- a/ c1 y6 y
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - _% Q) n$ N+ ^$ ~& e4 a0 G- x! x : @4 d# Z. N; W; V$ r3 ^# pUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " P! I& K7 p+ }' r7 K' b 7 w( j M. G& o' ~! jChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 c: S1 G; }4 g% x3 p' U0 x% {/ r
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) ^/ {# A% k% E
% ~9 S6 }. o0 c) V0 oInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . G% z* V7 Z3 K1 s6 [$ I7 F+ K ?3 V: y
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. q( f7 A) z1 a/ ~. _4 O
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 v3 C& U$ d5 ^3 Y
