外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 $ x( s8 I1 ^8 m: u7 l4 u& f7 P2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 . j0 _. L9 W0 ~; B: V 9 p; C% F. w9 b5 _9 y) B ; G0 F. T% E9 s7 @ k中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。4 x6 ^% n- g) g3 d1 |: l
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; V7 k: E, E* M- g* j' w3 x3 m' y 3 Z, f4 |7 e( I9 e$ t 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ( A8 @7 i2 \8 A) J/ F$ t6 d! b! w# R+ t' ` D3 ]
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 J: s" A6 f0 E) s) V* o. s
Q' |$ B! p8 V0 B" x' r9 n, x. ]5 s 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 7 A; `& ?4 Q8 O0 o 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。; V4 w& n2 o# Y& T4 \
7 a" ]! S! N- c- c7 O 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 % _! T5 R/ R% I5 Y- g& p8 Z6 {" Y6 y! t/ l （责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 V; W: L/ ~' O( Q6 F+ }4 W+ A7 m, I. B! B
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters + r( r2 P* ^- ?4 O4 V - V7 n S7 Q8 ]0 {) i2 ^0 |BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! c3 J% }* f1 t c) P: l, M2 X a% |) _0 @6 j, c7 _1 V/ B/ Q
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! h" \7 f6 ]: G( Y3 {- I+ R+ S" u# d, D
' J5 A) {) h/ u% M! }Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 a, I6 D) h; E4 T+ v7 ~# q' {
) h/ \+ l& y, ]- ^4 wAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( y# h$ z3 T; W4 e1 F# O; {
; j" ~) w. V% ?; y0 A" c0 YRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 u; X; U) S" S9 m/ ^) T q2 q' u1 y" ?3 L% Q& I9 k) IFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. & Y; i; q$ I- ^# Y" ^1 E4 h9 k' T
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 1 U7 ^- b' q, ^* M' z2 z" C, _' h# b$ I: O0 L# @) i9 _: W/ @7 M
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( i: \+ l& w7 `- D0 d' d! w# n) n6 c0 X( z/ [2 R. d
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # ]& C" ?, }5 s7 B/ Q; N) E: t, }" d: q, C) G) Y8 z8 A w
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + Z$ c% p1 m, H, { & t' `; i& Q1 }& Z# ~& W! J- PThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # L4 I) q* y( h* B/ x+ V0 a
/ K- |" \* ]9 D1 ?$ ?# UUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 M& J0 q4 D% X
, t+ m8 b5 J5 H7 a/ j8 UChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 o7 D3 P! `: }8 |
0 W! {3 j* p" }! ]3 qIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 m! w u4 g0 s" K9 @% d * ~! z) g8 t2 X: m; oInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; X- A/ m, S; t) {/ J! B
6 F( L6 ^# P" u9 G) V: t"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / g$ ]; X8 L& H1 I3 ^7 @5 u7 t
# D9 ~3 a. M3 C/ K' U2 P7 wGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! `3 g8 m( D" Y! m- k& I
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
