外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 8 ?: P$ p X, [% V1 i2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 4 J* t$ y$ C6 Y8 g7 ~; c. y% n: E }% Q) S/ r( O
- I$ a+ ]) L% A o1 a中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ) b. [3 `9 D4 B9 u* p$ {8 F, ^8 T" q- I
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 o8 F) [5 S6 {: W. f9 k, i: s" B1 G% F7 [( P
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& u# Q( i3 r% O, N
! r1 I N7 M* X. p- \ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 }( c- E4 c" p. V& F) F1 k% Z3 S7 b% T# @
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 8 ^6 e) P# ] ^; s 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ] C" _' K @) R0 j* G( }
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。9 l4 A0 i. J2 x9 x7 |+ E2 U
7 J* F; {$ C0 k. O7 E（责任编辑：杨海洋）: Y; ~6 F. J; K0 Z; v. A
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ! ^: Q/ p4 S6 {+ b3 P. ~) R$ u- L $ k: R' ]; N% ~7 K7 p: ]# m- rBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( A S e" U" P
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # x) X$ J8 U) a! O/ o# \
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' I$ I9 z# u7 ]5 j
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 b% a I! S/ H& L; `! M3 g. k7 n: d! d
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . K" D9 N' a6 F; @1 [% K7 F4 Y# a& o! H7 L$ ~: n
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ A& z" f; F. t" q3 M1 _& q* G
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # O t. l/ J$ t. K) @* y) f* \
* X% N; J' q' j& w6 J9 u9 P"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 { {( e0 r0 M) e/ N \
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * ^6 u% b n& o, L! D4 i) J( c8 ~8 l: \! h( t0 g
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 1 B8 T" _. X8 ]8 f; e7 d
" G0 ?: B' \4 v; m" N' v. ~8 \That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 W* Z9 T+ i5 I9 z' k' c% M
* r1 W& J& g/ R0 h: c+ JUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 R( ]! G! y9 ^7 l7 f! X7 K) I+ F% v
6 Z3 N/ {6 ?) e1 c- Z0 N* W" m; h# aChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 S' r# N/ V5 W+ E2 Q, d
$ g% U; g* h& F4 ^4 G% \If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. q( n! O' m& z2 q- m6 Z5 W
- ?5 N' j3 P% c$ b( w, {International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " l* x, l6 P; h4 D) [
+ r! z. h$ Z3 g"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 _) G6 m/ \ p S4 A2 ^ ( `5 Z- d. e& CGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / a. i9 U4 L6 D7 R7 [( U% \ 8 q* k" c/ F$ C/ Q/ RThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
