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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 d9 x: e0 t' ^" s 2 P, I u( w: O: \! A 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 . |9 c, H* K0 z _ N) T( ]: n8 h' x- u9 {3 g2 M4 [
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 0 q6 V' N, z$ ~# I6 u/ e) R( i8 G- ]; u% c3 P$ G
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ! U# t R3 c; w) P) |8 |& q 8 F9 C/ x; w$ c9 { c& s- r 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 8 h8 ~+ a) v$ _' F9 a 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。% T3 S/ a% m$ {
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) V, T6 {& z8 l! T1 E( P( {- ~$ V& u7 `1 H' Y. ~3 M （责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 |( L; G: x+ P' \2 ~* J0 q+ Y, H; E/ a o
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: }- \' `. E( X
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - i/ R; g+ B1 P* Y2 w) a; q & v, Z- M1 c. }) z5 JA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 m% D; c8 {) v
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : Z4 J" C" S. @3 |7 C
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 ]% ~, e% s0 b) R% c: j
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 c' m" `) [' m* Z- K* E- Z' z6 E) y ' ] `$ ]3 O8 a1 l" i; Y/ ^ s, L& eFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # F- w9 y/ E& o5 z4 j% h 6 H2 e: P T. a8 pThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 h9 X# O- Y5 M( b : t2 g$ V! N8 M; w& z"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + l7 h* s: f+ ~& F# y; i; [" l8 l# U/ L, K+ ]; P
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & I; ]' N( a8 N: I) {
: t; `8 f- y! g. E- D$ T* m! CGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! X& M0 Y: [+ x& q" _
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. X$ ]. Y4 s- ~! ~8 i& l# `1 H& N- D7 |
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 a" j- `# n9 r7 u
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 g3 P$ B" o( A6 `
/ y6 @' o8 U; y( S* M! G! W$ c% O+ TIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 V- E* C! R: R; _! c5 Z* o' ?; J- ~& C+ R5 G4 z5 ~" T
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 y! G4 f: |5 A2 G' ^
* ]% }$ {1 C" B/ b" t; P: ~"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 x0 \! O" i( O" P0 V- e; K
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " `# W# o2 u; A& | E; G; O% t- e8 D: I- U' i @* [5 l. i
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
