; w' j Z+ z& V. q b中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 5 p1 e! P" `- s6 S9 _" C l 3 u% \4 p. @' c/ Z( d' y- w 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。$ V5 r7 ^( G3 t4 R+ b& F( Z# |
( h6 o% R. w; ~+ V 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 w- A9 J0 R- {5 b4 w8 X3 r. u4 R0 j7 g. I% @3 O& ^" Y- n2 R
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。) W3 v4 \: @) @4 W W
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ! L7 r6 t' G& C: d v, O 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。. M' k* t' z7 v; S* c. H9 Z H
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 N$ R5 _2 l- O; b$ I6 ]" e1 ~0 y: p/ ^ （责任编辑：杨海洋） + K" f: H5 h6 c: [ A1 [7 J / e9 D+ x# g' a% p$ D( _* hRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ; r) j. B# [& K- U! e- s, }5 J2 J
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . H5 [. u( w- o0 a; t3 u: b7 h+ ?( W: A7 o M
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - }" `9 z$ g! E F8 K) t5 p P
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) _+ n* a% A2 W
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. L2 \ [- k& n ) v Y2 z. }7 z# |Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , `& W i x4 z4 O4 j& P2 [8 Y5 g5 n
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; c2 J. j1 i# O5 a9 N1 \ 9 P$ [1 B7 P `This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 x$ z4 I3 J2 J' B! B ~; H& F3 e3 ~, u9 h
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # K- ?0 M& S" p* W8 ^) K
5 P. [$ `3 g* oIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; ^' l) F0 {% I S% k% w [, c( V
% i3 D+ B$ {9 H! U- E2 Y0 ]6 VGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / ?( X# T7 y7 \5 Y, M/ A/ ~ 8 N6 U# L6 W! ^& b- H. aThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & l0 d' ^5 T0 p) I$ S
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # ?- ?3 ], m# Z7 J1 W* {% R( X* w 1 w3 t B$ L, ?7 `) M. k9 x1 CChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , G8 d, o# r) P) K
, q( S3 T% b# o7 F) cIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( R6 @" H, U$ I7 x3 ?: j
3 k/ P" V/ f! LInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & G5 M7 Y" X4 w ) r; V$ K& E1 F; |& ]"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 n- X8 [/ b/ ^* Y5 P3 w6 r9 P
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % x0 N' D: ^& I2 i% y
