/ @; @- w9 @/ x 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 - i+ g q& Q" ]8 o- F, S/ c0 U | V3 k: e7 F
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。5 b! x8 Z! L6 L# D% ]
- s! A0 P3 M/ J- r$ P3 W 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 n( C; l8 M S5 \3 D$ Y7 t/ c; A
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。, l$ n' Z9 j( [& c$ R+ Z" z, s6 s1 t
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。& c7 g0 z. X5 l' o9 o# P6 r
" s! {$ \$ B D; Y) M 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。. ]: d% }+ M3 Z6 [, q* E, w v1 m3 N
$ g4 Q" O( u$ w （责任编辑：杨海洋）/ w5 P K/ `! Y! j: I& O
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters & f+ v. z- K% I3 a2 f# R4 N # B% w- v4 S- c* K! n, g/ tBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 } O7 _) u( e' e
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + l4 h0 W3 L. E1 I" U& q; Z 9 S/ z$ ^7 y9 e7 j0 d4 ~Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 g* m; T: F# S2 Y: n( h+ i j% e& d2 X5 Q, c/ {! t- U% G
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 S5 e3 }2 m* e |: c
0 a7 W5 {* M1 y" x" [: MRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . [3 Z! n* v/ v3 x$ c& n* |$ v" S" P. r5 U5 s8 X0 \2 D
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 K, R6 ?. b# P" w
* |7 ]5 _; ]: N, m% I2 J* G; c$ @This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & O6 Q; K N4 \ 8 j$ T1 T) C) Z1 t"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 r* C1 a9 @: c, o
+ A4 u" i, Z" r0 I( ?- @In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . P+ `9 k6 J% Z) q5 Y
) S/ L1 R( N2 [/ w, `# VGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 g3 o$ a/ A5 @, V5 e. m0 z% q7 l
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 p5 ^! i" H; o0 ]6 g: ]2 }! f% e3 n2 A+ B$ E, N
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 u( r1 t0 k& U) L; a $ Y1 Y/ E1 ~1 n9 `! k6 ]China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + m. g) A; J3 _% H* m
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 Y+ R9 Z, o( j0 l0 g
* k. z: a* v0 G( t- a+ CInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ J7 z, i* E! h8 C3 ~/ d+ ]/ K6 S
4 w' {* G# A% i2 L% _8 b"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 Y1 U) \. X- j I2 i% ?1 d U# r
3 B ?5 O+ g8 @7 l! H6 I( AGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - V& v4 a" R, i- f5 t2 |" ?2 A
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
