外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年- H: b# k6 o) k& _. J/ {2 q3 v( D* P
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞' B. Q: K. y) m, H7 m
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 6 q$ x2 j, l' Y- O/ y5 J& i# E, M$ h) R8 K+ S& b
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。, R: N4 k# s2 F3 n
+ J) \- B% Z# C! e8 U' x# A 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 - N9 Y% G' Y# y5 c7 X8 X7 q 5 ?/ Y. B$ j& g" J' R5 J6 y 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) _; g* d L# I0 B3 D P5 ?, w# c1 b$ r 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 3 H( O/ A7 l4 A0 C 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。$ Z" O# |% T) y% _+ o' ~
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 H- X0 P2 m' I! `- ~ 3 t( Z' r b x* ~6 n（责任编辑：杨海洋） % V- O: N" ?2 {- W( {0 i' D5 N+ s/ D$ O# ~( _1 j/ s
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 Q, Q$ F4 f( w7 I# M, C: V4 Q
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 @ J' i. b, X f 5 t9 H8 _2 v: c2 O2 ^9 aA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - ~7 l/ `. {) X& {5 G6 ]' e
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! T$ i; B+ U8 B9 X8 R0 R: v) V6 k P: u% p4 G
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. & Z% j8 a2 U! L0 Y7 d/ r: H+ N: [$ U# A
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' x+ y# P2 _# i" o2 }3 I; l+ f1 H7 L8 |/ u% \1 {0 I
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. & l, s! B3 p2 |- f: r8 `) p5 k7 x8 ]2 l
" B- F4 R$ `9 [( v( ^This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 ~+ }2 R& m2 t6 E+ Z0 ~5 \2 r* A1 a A6 I9 {4 B
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - _5 g/ j' g" X/ `
/ C$ {- ~$ z/ S6 M2 z/ J) K) MIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , ^3 q3 c! L! V* r5 X4 m
4 q& t3 ^" q) HGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( M! t) P# @: }. ~. u! R6 E# L
. |! v8 K- O" d" aThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " t: L7 \* S( ^! [% z ! q2 U5 j: ]+ w1 g0 GUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 L7 C* o8 M9 e) T0 e/ J2 `
7 U( M; l* q& Q3 _) pChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % T' Z) M! f! B" H! A+ |
6 T8 ^/ ]! B9 iIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 X, e7 B) Q% l7 n( K1 s1 O, t m 2 G* D- v6 N" x2 R" oInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 h$ s' B0 h5 n4 N2 {5 y4 A0 | 5 S! }5 N) R- w9 H; g2 w3 p- P7 ^"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 A! K' Y2 w" `" f5 a+ w$ O
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . X( U- U8 g5 |: p) q- C
! j( Q+ }- |7 F ?: ]! bThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
