外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年7 D2 E8 g- L$ q
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 M) E; b! J) G
X3 t) _8 V0 R. b r 7 x8 Q4 s% |& p6 r& j中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。0 B3 V8 ]7 h' k, U
% m$ `, u9 P% h 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # G9 q3 `) Z. A" h' D! q! F1 z3 G5 r1 U( V6 F$ U
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 b2 K" m2 n! C5 D, P0 j
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 E3 P7 j3 \& a5 u% u
- _6 V5 o! W. O 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。" z5 o6 M4 V2 q% h: K
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。7 v" H Y! ], L3 X9 P
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 8 G& L G. K/ D9 g* o3 C( V) a9 }# V# n Y （责任编辑：杨海洋）8 e% [$ S: j ^) z8 n5 u
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ; q- M& S; Y1 m4 {+ I# v # p% {0 A+ |" z, GBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + c T" p8 L0 f' \! S0 ?6 E! }+ N
* n$ A# k! u/ f& X7 l- ^A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! ], w1 k) d- I2 U( @% u- P; _5 x! Q$ B) E4 N
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & y" P3 v; u, {
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' u3 V# w' x) g0 `# g: Q. x, b/ D8 E/ @
9 O* {5 `0 D/ R; E2 l* K. p' dRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ [2 s$ S( {- } p : y3 \% M5 j: uFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 8 B9 W4 ^& W& w; A
^# q9 l1 o4 _( u. @' y: OThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . A* `. p) Y8 U; h% \& Z 4 h2 C+ N: l+ }; ?% {% H: b3 b"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' |# I3 h; L) Y) Q8 @9 s \ I7 O) G( d / a* P2 j! p3 W/ o7 \# `In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + m/ P* D: ]# X0 a& b: j, N+ a
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 X. g& ]9 S4 M5 M1 R
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 [' Y" H& c( N$ i" E6 S: d0 t: A a* u: @% i9 ~; `& E
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) Y* G) M: f5 _6 c+ [8 Z ) T& F9 @& S$ ~2 L, U5 u% \China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + ]8 y6 a8 k8 F3 p, e7 K; R7 l) A2 c+ w0 [$ N4 a
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 v$ Y6 `8 r# V' g+ t ~ 0 H- w9 ]+ ?# s8 _! qInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( K. n" |, o' [8 `) a1 Z / t, n* i$ L) }8 p7 M+ B [) T"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' p5 k! R, ]: j/ O ?4 h- a/ q8 S1 O
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( K5 M7 z4 b/ ^% l( y/ |' E9 L9 o% K9 w0 q
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
