% k ?6 l( w2 ?" O 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 0 X Q( r4 w' M {) Z2 V 8 R0 M. |& u% {9 K5 }; T/ L, s 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 - m- e& J8 Y% `3 J5 l) E) h& b& m; p4 H' s3 n. i* @* M6 I
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 5 N- l$ m' j$ {, z" ^; e! ]7 p, J& F 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# I# D( v8 P7 u: L* f" F
/ o8 [" a9 r9 l1 N
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。) W6 j2 T) `) P: r
! [, e0 n S, f) e' H4 }" V: {1 R（责任编辑：杨海洋）% N1 \9 w9 s; [1 `" @
, H# b8 t/ L5 a9 t4 Z8 l8 c* L( k# jRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 r3 d( _' H) B( G+ `6 }
& `% r; v1 I; I T2 ]
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 r" B' [# E+ a* E6 |' W/ \ , G. v4 L, Z' s" [, t! n% h, Z: zA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' l% z0 K* \' @+ a" B+ i9 X1 F$ B - e6 X- {9 g* JLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 R: P/ M$ L0 H; c2 ^, \! K / L5 l$ @: U8 }+ `" J2 tAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . _) M* i2 b" O' r9 I& Q2 }9 `- g
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! P3 J' V+ b% X* H4 f Z& P. j, {. s0 c
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , I5 S1 f/ t. U0 [( \4 h; A+ U/ D4 V: W% [: O& d
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 A! N6 d. p" l0 f9 t/ D$ ?
7 v9 h. ^! M% H, y"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 }9 ~& \, x; e2 e5 O* Y* c/ P' q! O7 a* `
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; R4 X$ g% \8 a- i. s l0 w H c, WGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( S8 @; W: R+ V# I4 [* F, |
" b4 l* v0 t0 d+ [! b" K
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 D7 w1 I1 n+ l" g* }% U$ n3 g. {' t' R- P/ x% u
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + [2 @* l" q- ]/ ] 1 z. A ~6 ^+ Q- D) n- jChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " }" h( o5 w! C' E- q8 k c
/ w8 x& q( v$ {" a f0 d: A5 S
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 2 p$ V. B! c C7 C
! {) m; {2 T* E* ]) H
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - P7 ?! g1 B) `: L
) O* [" m: a& L3 ?8 j5 j. k7 M
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ G2 r% y* {8 E0 v2 G5 }1 E0 E: z* A% U4 V
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 {* V' k# U% E. P* N8 y
" |" b% Q: T& f' g4 R9 RThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
