# u% T# W6 N: I" U$ z（责任编辑：杨海洋） # P3 D I. V9 C5 x x; ^+ b! D0 p4 {2 o3 IRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" m7 l$ j- m( R3 \" L
! Z$ X7 C& |: U+ N6 B& VBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. B3 d$ B8 l- b( U: a 0 ?2 \7 C4 N# K# yA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * B( e6 O8 Z/ r# m7 \$ |1 i( M8 H ) g( q6 Q; n$ I5 hLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " V. W. H- ^/ J# ], H% a * u5 y5 w2 k! J, MAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 Q$ e( ~9 |+ ` ; W: L5 \" A* U) N) H8 PRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 J4 d% p% Q- U* {$ e9 X4 j' N, p - l' k9 W3 i, N& n" h* nFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) n) }5 a0 b+ u9 P: n+ c. R
1 }, Z. T' Z. t- K5 l0 t$ gThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 O2 {! s! B. R6 ?
G3 u$ _" O4 T( D- k& f/ Q( O"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' ~8 q* d- u, r0 n. ~# a; ?+ G* K9 ]- t3 t( E7 l+ k6 W
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' A- A% K2 @6 | , s7 a( v8 A1 s0 K; b1 i, i+ OGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & Q; a* T; g/ @5 M4 `5 `6 N9 a$ e% B/ @2 U. X4 {0 n
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 l$ H2 N. r( e% U
* d# Y9 d$ E4 J+ H; o3 \
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' N8 n0 p" X) G( q- V2 P0 O- u$ S" l
8 e6 C' s* w; I1 ?0 ~$ |8 Y
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / I4 ^/ \$ a! z4 c& x2 K& o' E% j
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. u4 ^, h' D* G8 |$ c; Q
3 b0 E6 U: Q' x5 [' H8 r3 m# DInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 c5 |) p$ ]6 {* ?7 T( q/ X, ? V
. C% K& ]% G; i- ? `"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! @% ~) v& z/ Q+ }" u! K
3 }) j8 b- z. oGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 P6 N/ b; A# J$ u3 k& L8 C 8 n0 m0 f& p3 A9 X/ T+ w% H5 o0 [Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
