( ^* ]5 n* y$ L7 Z 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。) C& N8 U5 W6 ^, L
# k/ I/ x, ?) ?& v
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。# ?. W) X- ]0 H3 s( ^
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" C' `0 b+ B; m& M, z/ L
G, |! X. O4 ?! V, y 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' J& G% _0 t) N. Z: C# Q" C
' d& `# P: ?# G# B! W（责任编辑：杨海洋） ' R. Z2 o1 D3 O8 c( x1 B# \1 Z6 u
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ( j+ c/ S1 N% Z7 D, }$ D( w3 y' N 8 L+ y. h3 D. [% HBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ W" P. F ~. _ , z; g; g, q: G7 ]$ S( tA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 f$ I$ t7 @! x8 | 9 g" y+ C) h8 }" n O( o. u! r& vLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 M8 `0 I1 Q8 S4 s* b- n* e+ r+ Z) l9 N
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( n' v, R3 W c% I
8 T- l2 `- K7 f& vRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ T, u( s" \. u* L6 L& L0 R ) S. G, I% @# [( oFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 `" ]. p) t; u" O0 _4 N7 Z. p' T
( R8 D% b D# b- }$ d- a
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 Y, |6 v) D2 \* z# J. k: j# C& [; l: ^! x
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 p: a6 D% Q4 R
- Z) n. F# P, |: L& \. D$ c3 M
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ u# Z' \/ }. n- f6 A" q. j; M3 y
7 i+ K, _- Q# n% N9 C4 j9 bGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! A; L# t% m" {& c% P0 R% g: s. ?% }5 K5 h" f1 g
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : S, ~5 _2 H" j2 X8 g9 \
$ f. S0 E: c% M! t% Z
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # U: {8 |& R3 n/ E8 D! X 6 u7 c5 c; r7 t6 d5 uChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 E4 b: h8 X6 i+ {' e. ~5 \: k
* _2 ~8 V# B+ xIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : p* G9 t0 o8 M. v. A' \
( V$ K' U+ `- x* BInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 G. ]$ L7 s0 Z8 f$ O5 x; G4 g
! W+ N. _3 d5 N* k; G' n"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - G4 ^# V# i: p6 f" C# ` 0 E. e' T) S0 d2 V) ^) NGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. $ [. W4 ]6 ~1 q9 z* @& u
) j6 \& T. X0 PThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
