" L& v$ @& A: k$ v. y9 s. I - a4 t+ c! b) z3 u' [中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。( |, c* O- Z6 B& l, I
6 V( M) M @9 [4 t2 f6 S/ n' S 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。% l& ]# ~) l7 _6 c+ c
" F3 {: _% s1 p7 ^: K 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。1 c {! e% ]8 \6 q4 E
/ u( l6 V- h9 D* _8 x 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 8 Q0 \2 M- `" ]5 r% s4 Y5 K0 V) {5 R5 D% w
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。$ W! S* @# E+ k) `6 Y/ N( k& M
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - e* G0 P/ P- P+ q7 Z9 {+ X9 m {4 }. l. |& [8 k* _
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。. G: Y) h, h) I& c6 u
, @- D, D! P9 Z1 e: f5 P （责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 ]" a# Z, X1 [0 A ]3 U5 A$ @+ N6 ` p3 }7 c/ _
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters2 @* q" I- _& k% P. N8 h
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - V- [8 w3 \; Y1 A . w3 \: n. V, d5 [! KA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & V1 `, [9 |! C; r/ G% l& ~9 u# [* a
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 W, L4 e( j$ z( W2 J r& e 9 A' x% d+ m3 H$ v- r% [After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 f: k/ y( x8 J9 d
8 e2 H" V7 C( W. c9 @Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 [; W# {$ N4 F Y# [
& t1 [; x' d% U/ ]First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! Z+ U U; |1 m) Z' n4 P5 M
, x* c5 a3 [& J: xThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 f# c/ [8 G* s4 v$ S7 ^
$ Z. o) u( o5 I* y* v/ x5 l"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 R6 L5 P X6 P$ }
" J3 c/ }5 Y. h/ H: |In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + z4 T, j) P* R/ D; Y4 Y
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 _& \% I$ @( P# e' Y6 @, i
) l$ f2 q4 Y- }2 e$ c" rThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. W# K$ D/ b0 L% {8 v! [ ]4 K+ k! w3 e/ a/ P2 }5 \) B- [3 w( M" ^7 _
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) m) h8 r2 S/ Q
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 U4 M8 C& ` x2 t g1 C
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % j0 h* K. a- Q$ s9 [# M, r9 s( j" j' F7 d$ F4 U
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # f% z6 J# ^1 u" A( Q: y" @
' j: N+ T5 m9 n9 U"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + E2 `- Y8 c3 F# H5 v' v4 r
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : X2 N) C: ?8 j ) J2 b1 d4 l/ v9 qThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
