外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ) P6 @, z' F8 `4 h1 p$ A2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞6 d3 B- j* o4 w. y$ y
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 % m$ I: q# F% o: s7 K% f : b b' C7 R) J3 F 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。: `9 W( W, X8 |8 r5 q6 W
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 + N& z8 R5 U# K- s& U9 m& P4 F8 e$ e# `
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ( {! n3 y. T. |* Y2 b% {/ f1 M+ ]9 a: e1 L( E: X
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 3 N1 W0 o# q1 r1 j$ S6 u 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 " Y' s. U& X+ ~ 0 e: Y/ M2 ]$ m ^7 i 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。$ S) j& z7 q9 Z+ f5 l0 T1 H ]* I( ?
; ]: A# ]; ^$ [' F7 z （责任编辑：杨海洋） % `" ]3 M. Z; [0 `& X& O/ I6 { - f' Q+ I+ {! U7 E' r, pRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, m$ ]0 X+ N' N$ S6 j+ i/ j
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 U! k0 r/ M' K
0 u( a u4 G! }, yA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' g1 G7 v2 s+ A6 f
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) N* d$ i1 Q$ c1 E% G
5 @( ?, w9 \7 O# j2 w9 Y6 lAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 h1 x8 r( K- p' L$ f0 k) Y+ d
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " U8 I. j5 [: j5 E7 A9 |1 r, C# B+ Y$ K, P) X
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . L s0 H0 ~& C9 ?" b7 h; q
; A$ s' Y# n4 t& I5 V! |( N. XThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( X5 F# E1 c* j6 z/ d) x4 q2 F; \8 J5 [
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) ?* I I2 _5 Y7 M6 ~ 0 J5 @7 ^' y& p0 m5 u$ U5 c bIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 m' b+ K1 u8 u3 S& j7 z. M2 M$ }9 A
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 j% ]. D+ N- T9 \ ) x2 h3 @* b# PThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) y5 u! ^7 t# n$ |1 Z7 D8 \ 9 X% h8 D! L2 ^6 r# v& s( AUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + Z/ K" g' R8 e0 a. A0 ^7 H2 I
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! E. y5 z/ z" I' u; n4 s2 T1 m
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) o/ r# V9 V& {1 a4 P ! l6 q2 k2 H% H+ i" E% V1 vInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ |# h$ z9 Z) b6 | B. d" |1 Y( ~; l
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! U4 k/ f- s% q# f; r' U& E , m! z0 d* `( M. ]4 A$ kGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " l( W+ f; t5 M* W. t3 ~1 r 1 g* Y6 ?, x( C* PThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
