外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年: M5 k, Z5 a( n* E2 [( K
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ( n+ R5 g! |" L9 l: `. r , L9 u$ u+ Z9 F. l5 ? 8 G1 Y: r3 O, p; M, r中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。2 R* D( i; n9 h: {" f/ B- D9 M# L
; r7 Q! @- E8 d6 x/ p$ W$ v 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 x( F2 Y+ U3 b6 G4 [1 R( f0 e7 D9 @* g9 U4 ]
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 @, y+ ?- [3 g- P6 S7 o; r( d$ ^1 f
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 9 Y& F+ t1 R4 }! A9 }1 y, M4 N) P y" B: K7 x( }$ ?9 A
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。0 } O3 H7 O" f; D/ R
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 9 l; ]- }2 T* c; _$ O2 I3 v Z/ w$ w5 L( q& c3 O 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。9 y4 d5 B- P7 t1 T1 o( v
8 t% E. a% d3 Z) d) g （责任编辑：杨海洋）) n& h. W1 l! B6 c
1 f$ s5 u5 ~6 f
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters * ]% Q# p& }$ k2 r/ o6 H3 Q' e; u( q" ~$ q/ _0 F# l, e0 |5 |
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( ~# O* l+ c% _6 _7 ?
) d: d# v% S! ]$ ]A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : q3 \1 q% A, _
Q; G% D( F% h5 h9 b. d! ILet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 Z( ] f% E* F& Y* c v' @1 l6 Q. X/ M& jAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( `& G2 ~0 _9 k* ` @7 X0 ~
2 P) l# i# f* r5 L& k2 G, h' K' [! W
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 H- |1 b& v- W8 o C( w& T- u' x2 Y+ n) z. a7 X, E
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! G- a' s5 D6 {
( I5 o( \4 o+ X. n4 j+ m3 D) VThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) \+ t; E% A9 O9 G; H7 x: \" D }4 @6 D F7 M
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 d2 R6 ]% R; e7 i
P4 p' p# q: l6 a0 j$ m* I
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - R F, E5 J/ C5 y
" c+ F; ^' Q, u$ {. H$ `
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 Q' v9 @$ Z8 E( K; K( k
, G0 M- e( w: A# h4 w9 h
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 E' x% d* @3 `) K! N( E/ B
5 V$ c# }0 r6 T6 W! u" SUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % N$ m1 w6 O6 ]: K* z/ f2 B& Q% H- j% R! s% y
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # j: v' h" D7 b* g! H' A + L& ?4 H+ ]: g1 a& PIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # [1 ?) t, q9 e+ n
; p7 T7 N% h) V0 A0 u+ rInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * j7 i: r5 P# Z) u1 j; V. B! K& C! ~& P! z3 D* o3 ]
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " U6 N7 B3 W. k: M, d+ ^ $ ?* s* e {3 N G# E& oGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' @* k& O9 ?% {5 f* B- H( _
7 ~2 I/ E" d7 E3 [4 n- ]
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
