外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年" x) E- ?+ [+ h4 I/ Y; w6 h$ S3 d
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞1 X+ d* w; @; i! V0 Q1 n3 G M0 C' f0 I
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。0 j( V6 g' o" L. m
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。; i5 g4 u; A& {5 K
" F, O( j0 f& \: H* T" L r 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 l9 p# M- O( [1 G$ G% m. {! M; y / x9 ~$ @( d ]. V) N 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。% S# _# S3 s0 T( ~* V p
2 P% J G6 a! m2 \! @ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。3 _9 }* O, o) y5 |2 n
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & l% v% N/ d1 \5 A* H9 x L6 X U" k0 R1 a9 _3 y. _$ G% c% a 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 . z9 T7 a! S( Y' B) d# v2 f- g# W) N& L6 i7 `# I （责任编辑：杨海洋） ?: L3 _8 o P7 D7 ?9 u% _
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters+ n; g; A% W; y# x4 b0 m5 N
* b$ K* S9 ?4 L: N) Z# jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " }4 V& K4 K- J% Y. {" R& d7 m* Q* a' X8 \
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 l" m* R- k" @+ B& ]- q' ]
9 e7 M( ^8 N# D E( ^( F3 cLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ]* Y0 O/ L( o+ q2 a # x9 [6 L% e5 |After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' I) e6 B: G' L: h- N5 V
( p% _! h- B7 Y6 aRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ X+ P h. t# _/ a) e: l. D . K6 i( \: n4 [. n8 F {First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 c/ A! s) L$ a, X V. D7 S4 D3 g4 K6 V: q0 _
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( p r- ^4 K. Z6 q% k8 f1 E5 K; L6 d9 T* P, I
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 _2 Y0 E' ?2 ^6 D; }
2 L ?4 A6 U% M3 V" O+ \ ]& YIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # j& R/ k* g" @' E ~
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' J! p, R0 ]. L2 P( V, _( L: A. ^& c0 V0 ^% i! a& j
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ y! a2 T9 T5 y" r1 y- b: G: }7 m1 v$ `& P! G& W3 A3 K1 ^
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) V8 b# n' k5 H! R/ a
. w* A: {1 Z4 G" K! Y VChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 J; B8 m. t: L% f + U: o0 p* [; V# W: `! a u0 kIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 H0 c. }0 ^7 Q( p, g8 b# B! k1 U N! _+ O( R4 z
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! Q7 Q: w; e6 j
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; M* r6 D, p3 I0 `; S
+ Q: \9 p4 U1 A8 RGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; v6 R3 s# X. g, M; Y4 @; r b, C# W
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
