& Y- I! ?6 v1 o& X2 g 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 O( ?4 f- p+ L
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 L4 ` ~, E, E5 P& L
9 t- X) w* T4 X- e 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) |' r! W5 g5 ~+ g7 e: u( N" f/ ]* {9 Y5 O# p& _
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 Y/ M* @& T+ K( y! z/ s
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 7 ~" x" M u' Z' o& w5 |' z / A# V: i+ r1 X' l6 c 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " e' i4 |4 \( W8 Q# c! V: x" D" [2 C( A( \$ W l* D/ y3 A# @# w （责任编辑：杨海洋） ' _: Z5 ?6 x. C8 I4 u% \8 T+ I' X+ Z/ `1 @0 r3 I3 E
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, c0 S) Q: D+ b6 A) d2 Z1 O6 X7 I
/ P9 C) n/ R* C3 D8 ]( D0 P' TBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # `, q, ]3 H7 N: G5 ^7 f% S
+ R+ K8 h1 @; v( XA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. }4 m# L$ A- m
+ W$ U; n# d8 Y" @7 MLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ n$ t* V% T$ O 4 b- X* y6 n0 k- B+ H8 hAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * ?$ D! q, N$ U8 L
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' C7 D C5 i3 @4 J* ? {) ?' O* o, {- }
2 }5 \8 I, g1 a/ r9 \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # K2 C' M4 z- n) L; ? T1 x4 I( X8 nThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! u& ?2 }! ^6 @/ O: d, q8 @: a8 N2 `
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - O9 D4 h2 O, C2 r O+ r. ~# l7 @ G% F) t$ J$ E. R j2 f
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 b; p' @/ S7 r" s! l$ R" J0 t4 h/ f' V1 F$ l
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ ^, h* S8 |5 y- T1 K# h5 @" x$ M- ^- l% q+ ^; \0 \
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 d+ D1 Y/ H0 R4 s, E/ f4 G1 H. L. y
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & M* q4 {- {2 u: P1 H: ~. e x6 w' z; `: I2 @( L$ O' l
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % m- ^* V, P- I! E& K- W : ]* W) H- t) P f+ NIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; e. x$ Q" T0 T& f3 s' q6 W! d* e; ~. S) }7 s0 x9 u
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 j$ f0 R- Y8 F" F \! f6 \/ k+ q1 `* `7 z"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , c8 j' e( `$ ^0 _2 N+ j' R! `) F4 _
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 Z; Z e6 H8 H+ W
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
