外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 3 B: K _8 w5 F* c+ U4 X+ K2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞6 H3 J4 I. W3 W- m
: ` k0 b: V3 S4 P8 U* `0 Q2 b. Y # K: a* K5 P( K6 n中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。) d* l( s( c7 i, a/ o5 m
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 . y" r/ e% U r6 S, ~ ; ?1 R5 F! E! W- E# r ` 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ( ?1 k+ ~# x; _/ w, R; {7 N, c& g6 j3 V! y7 @
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。. j% }, i% ^: A; P7 u
1 @% V6 a. }& P: n 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 7 N# }! _: @! U: X* @5 _ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * s" ~" @# A! f 7 h0 q1 x) L; D 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 - K; B7 O6 } r3 V% I : G- T9 }% p. ]8 P' `（责任编辑：杨海洋） , G. U! e _/ \( V) K; z, h 3 }+ D/ J8 [) [2 [Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters; n7 K5 p" E) f6 w8 z
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 ^+ p7 j' Y( {, S$ u- g
* m5 E0 J+ ^( z N& TA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( J* ~# y) ?" ~$ M. C
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. " t5 ` Y& k& T+ f+ j/ F
; \9 s& ?4 E u& s2 ^, @& f1 s+ NAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 x5 u+ l% r0 f) Q; V; b
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / s: @) W, \) w# M" Y0 f$ P) [0 a+ n* O% H! f+ t ]
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ ^% V& d. @' { # Q0 k4 r; m' v* Y" P1 b8 PThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) w& {! u$ t* c# d7 x: L 2 d9 x5 x/ y; U, ^* \"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) a$ G% p1 B9 `+ f& W5 k
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 T/ C: b# D) m3 r
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 w4 _/ L1 k$ y/ V, c& m6 u$ ]& L z1 `9 S1 l% P+ D
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; w0 a% R! Z" S2 g( j+ r
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % @& L3 q2 u* A, R; n3 @" Z3 D7 a) [( j* N9 y- W, {
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ' h; z5 S$ [# _) }2 r1 o3 @- s " P( _5 n! v+ @If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( M! ~" n6 c% r, } : \+ g" L, z( H) T0 s, KInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . w5 `8 h5 }" O2 f6 u 7 d; Q2 [, k3 a; J"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ M9 |( L( C8 G* W7 N+ u6 z* y( A8 m 7 U# X- g1 V. ]Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 S* V( o5 J& G 0 `, N$ `9 g) BThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
