外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年$ G1 d% b0 k; C3 y( g
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞) I! w% m4 e: O9 q" f+ w
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ' L) v6 `9 u. W- ]* X( j+ k9 @( B7 \+ ~$ x
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。! [" y, y9 E t- U
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。4 l" m, U e& Y0 ]6 r- J
( y8 e3 x! w2 `% y1 K6 J 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 * |5 u% @) S( i+ z0 r" E1 @; A, E! P8 l( ]9 g4 k' x8 \0 h
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。* _! Y. k7 @$ f+ s
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 2 L! H, Z( L- v3 o* u" ]. e: F. ^9 o Q
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 , q' j8 f& I M0 g9 u! u . t" k2 A$ ^" B（责任编辑：杨海洋） , G5 k3 s$ o1 C% J" N! P/ P) s5 Q7 x: K5 W7 M- L% `, E
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ ?4 q$ L" q+ L3 }" m* A6 \* Z
; f5 j3 W7 P8 w& Q4 f% k' EBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & t3 l( X' h7 [( t6 H' [+ I) c
) Z6 l- |0 s0 \: i4 |A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - Q" ]- K# ?. j( ^: X: K0 O c+ X2 O) j
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 F W: [1 f9 f) m$ F& D2 ^0 N8 c
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) q8 A& z! t1 p v
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( o9 E! b; m& e
0 C* |3 }0 T, J7 E/ JFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 t2 @7 H# Z* D+ `& n& { " k7 W) F) o8 s& ?This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) b- a) ^1 @9 G5 b
- i) N" o" v9 H. t, k& V"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! x0 G9 v, f& H; y2 o
# l4 U! {+ ]2 d9 TIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. / B# k3 f* d% F- u4 s 5 P# K* d6 o; C8 `' `% TGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + C! I0 h& `. _" U; E y+ L * G6 l/ ]2 i$ w5 u; t: D2 eThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( D2 E, w7 I& v8 w. C 4 W- ~- K9 T) w# oUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & g: m% H; _0 ~, j6 Q 4 h4 `4 A- t7 D( K4 E: }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # X" } F+ Z' i9 l0 w0 t ' m2 x$ t5 r. {If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' c! A2 ]9 ~2 w4 d$ t ) V% f& q+ K' j& S0 |- bInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 W! y0 |0 _0 [" r& b: s% w/ `: Y' l3 S' C5 k. G
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 j; K6 n+ u1 ~+ q8 c7 V* \
# t/ x1 h" V1 N2 L' h) u- H+ d3 s& uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. , E& b2 v$ I' ^3 e, G2 J0 d/ ^% _0 k
: ^+ i* Y- X. K! S. D, {$ DThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
