外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 . H/ } R5 H. D2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞5 R- i1 @) {1 h+ q1 N
! g! u, L; Q- P/ X+ s . _2 y1 P$ f+ u- Y
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。! ^4 d. E" N0 A9 ]
' P+ I) Z# l! e. O" A
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。+ I: M3 V/ F/ K0 p+ K/ c1 v
# M; @% L. J, X7 k 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 . X* U' m3 N3 g * V u) ?# ^$ G8 Z- g 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 8 X) R* L, o3 ^# N8 o% ^ % R- [( q9 H6 z6 a6 `1 f. T/ A; | 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 g7 h) o1 e2 P 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & T6 O4 K/ U$ i- d" u ( m+ ?' V7 j& v/ q8 j 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 E- n+ i4 A% K0 u
: P; |7 E0 D8 W6 h$ y% x（责任编辑：杨海洋）6 s" R. J; I! X% ~2 W) b% W
3 N; i x6 P( a) aRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 _) D5 [1 x2 h b & [- V& l P4 m9 z" @0 ^! Y" `BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 @& ~' @( P$ A$ ?- ^8 ?8 ^% o " S* R( T/ ~8 z7 H. D! d! F9 ]A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 5 @$ W, D3 ]: h1 j5 t- }* \& A* V# z. O! t; M- J3 m: E
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 k) t% ^1 ]) a, |* f$ ?
' Z9 C0 }' ^) EAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 T: W& Q0 a5 P, d$ T; V1 r, ^- r7 q0 Q8 S" c: I ]' x
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 j5 s* C$ M7 Q, r! T; b& V5 b) \$ Z% d" c& f4 O& k4 G
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( _1 S$ ?/ C2 ?8 o+ \% D2 Q1 \! f& d: K) u6 p
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . L9 |5 B3 A, r, T " M- z/ ?' t' o9 _6 y% J3 u"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - b3 C3 }/ _/ s5 O* u. b
. \% ]2 j0 H9 R
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # P, [' K |8 G8 _) h / @. `8 |/ j$ x. pGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * `3 [2 A- o; G$ k
% Q2 H8 A" v, H% ~% U3 t" _7 u6 z' a
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; c2 J0 g+ u$ e& Q0 y \! X, z6 _, z( j: u' h! tUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 g# [- E2 L! x3 k % c2 _" g& n# e& AChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + r( k" Q$ v2 m4 O4 ?5 |4 R . v9 D. n- e3 v1 J4 r+ D: K3 t' UIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , ` V+ ?5 y& [) e . o6 I& {' ^# ]+ uInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. }# Y- D/ Z8 j0 C5 \
9 L% F: E1 Y- @
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. |* t2 e+ h$ A
+ D/ B, ]1 G2 L
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / u' L. M1 s/ I; j T/ d W P* o& s, t$ O! AThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
