外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 / j3 d i+ L, A5 `1 e. f2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 , e' h0 X Q- C! L8 s: L* R7 m- a1 ^- `
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。2 m+ `8 {2 V0 q- j% u! p2 W
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。1 |% i2 o$ {; E
# T4 p& `) u2 u+ ]% z: f7 j 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。! k3 y8 A. G. Y' i9 r. b
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ I) N9 T+ F. s. z
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( \' J2 `6 m: n' ~
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 0 p2 ]8 S* E* u* D7 |: ?2 T5 [1 G" D9 U* |5 B3 Z% k) q- |, H/ r# o
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。, v6 ], c6 O6 o$ N) |/ S. j* W4 c
' P1 p- {% `# U（责任编辑：杨海洋） 5 n% @- ]) H- l& P $ p6 m) c9 d" i& H& S3 l" ~Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / K1 f2 o" \6 R' b! O9 @* |! Y $ G& M/ y+ t6 u5 qBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! x3 B# C0 {& ?3 I2 O$ R: ~+ r
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 [6 a5 X- z$ E& O" |* u
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 R+ o' P" |. u0 {% a8 L
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 p; G7 T( F8 z2 t* U3 R$ L 5 y# d4 V5 h/ W1 ^7 ^Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 p3 l0 d9 k: }& H" K" g+ }- C- |* L& E; g' r3 {# x
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 e8 a7 T% y2 f1 J/ U r& x, r6 H8 I" Y& O3 D7 S0 {8 g; r
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 _$ Y8 q" _- [$ {& n/ r 8 K8 D( V/ C# X; f"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - Z* G) ]: m x V, A3 X8 E6 o* m/ c, z; o5 e+ v
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) ] z: _5 g% }( C! D; S! J% l
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 {% }" u& Y. G$ Q: I% ? ; n4 g- ]8 z" T' WThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . Q+ R" `' O, M7 H' ?# q3 ?# N" }5 h- j9 m% ?" Q( o% M
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : e! D$ N% m! T8 w+ O) N5 s
! t! o/ G5 S' x- |2 o/ f9 SChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * b( \( J% X7 {' \+ n! w, g * H, B+ b: K4 NIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / A( {* l' Z: w
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 q: M5 C9 @* V- a$ @* w& T
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 ?3 ~9 K" W/ u4 E$ n+ y2 I% x* F4 M, }, E
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 H- x6 ~8 f0 o! p* D! o. {9 @* N& s; k8 @% Q/ |
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
