外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年: [! m' h6 i( o% V6 K5 w
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 - G# f" H' A# V! U ! ~6 N9 m# _. {3 v; S 2 R: ~2 q5 E: p5 V. z6 G2 C$ A中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 {8 }+ b0 j6 j! T R7 ~+ w& [
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 d4 s! {/ M) n9 N. C& G9 q' @8 N3 ~& o# N" U4 L. u; ^- Z- F* W
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 4 ^' @# i& M" `& d; M: Z- o L9 l, N/ G0 u. S
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。- K" [* ~/ e4 M
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。/ t L6 z7 Y% h% Y) p
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。7 q3 o% J! M( ?& V& |
! {8 o! C- F# L 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / T, d4 V- k- e; j 1 d, ]1 \) D& w% M* D* e' ~8 P（责任编辑：杨海洋）/ ?: B( ~6 N7 ~/ ~ m
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# t% Y. f# b0 J6 i$ X0 Z9 Q6 l6 I
/ D/ S* t$ Z$ N. P; R6 CBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( i4 m, b% f, K& S
5 t5 q6 j a0 W, Z [6 b) FA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . K6 O) v& `; L& e
# z" d2 O! f& uLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. $ [& i7 y% g5 \6 j
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 g# ^3 N. T0 S/ Q1 h2 A
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % B9 w, Q' e2 `8 @' |; P
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; j: }9 N& A# R# F! N! N
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 d: @8 u" b( a. ]% \- y' i/ e" P$ x) A& b/ z
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % L/ V8 M/ @1 P* w5 K ! s$ \, b$ L6 g0 `, G( uIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! K X5 S' z8 o2 P d
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( _0 Y% `" a, h7 d8 R) U
4 F- t& m. U# H7 z3 o! K' mThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " e( J4 P" @! R$ t% ^5 [+ \; y" P/ R: w; b' }
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & D8 B+ @ V }; P. d/ h/ a$ I$ Q5 v 0 B; v4 Q. a/ H- p, M& vChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * j1 N+ h1 |) c( V$ P) P: M( t. F) ^
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) }+ y9 t* l9 q! [ 3 M0 P! q" ^: w8 T0 `$ O3 b# nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 b6 G. P0 F8 [ C+ J" M9 ~
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) b9 [- B# ^1 }
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % d& m( P" R7 r! _
