9 R, y1 f- {! v0 S" J5 a2 j6 m 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。% e( x# c( c6 R+ [6 v7 t0 Z6 Y! J
2 S2 W! A0 V5 c' }' D' z, U* D
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 1 s% a/ T7 \ A ! K/ g# m- X A; U; _ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) _) G- R6 c- w) [/ ?+ h( a3 N7 Q: K: t4 U# V
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。) c; a! S) c1 T; m9 R1 \
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。/ T9 ~- D7 z+ h: B) i9 Q( m
2 i3 u" r9 l# I, ?4 P! p) w
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。* I) [1 q1 B0 F
. z+ @% q* |: y7 ^9 s（责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 n. i9 Y' l& U. z0 W 9 n, q* p- l% ~( fRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 2 j1 s2 Q3 U" \" E' f 3 z7 l& ]5 B+ IBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 9 s7 h K: r% u$ [1 B
% z2 A; W- X8 P2 H% RA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( y/ g u" D" X7 N! l3 o
. ]8 Z' E& c% ?5 l4 u
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. q, d. h' A6 P8 {, @1 L& f( l7 C& p+ c- }7 r1 C
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " @) {. e+ I& R8 z: |3 M6 s2 @4 O* Q5 W8 M% v' U$ I2 {. u
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! D5 ]( ^$ u! g9 D* u- a- M5 O+ W/ U! h G
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + z: k3 Y" M) `* J0 O
/ k5 t+ q2 X) l# T* T/ H, r
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - g2 v+ x7 O* R0 t7 f( g% p
b$ t2 I+ k( E) h"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 Q: @4 T# W( N: D3 w% i. d
) D5 N! ?0 x0 {1 W; _/ mIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . L4 H- Z' }, b, c
9 @3 ^+ S( B9 T5 ]: f3 OGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 q- E# j0 i2 Y$ }9 c
; ]& a8 |6 g# n" L$ H
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. d4 t1 r1 j* ~; C
' ^. S, `4 r/ |8 b# n) tUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. b0 a0 N# ?1 s9 t+ f1 N8 f
9 u& g$ n0 Z2 O/ n, C
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". r" \7 u1 A2 Q* e. z
* o- ?7 a4 I, j S& }4 VIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * G5 o' F O/ D
) S# K9 h, ~! M
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : _0 v* K" L( g m3 e6 E8 v' D
' c% B. t P Q. g' ^& H
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) w5 b- I! M3 [" }+ q! {
7 P9 ?7 q) O7 Z4 k; q
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / b( z0 Y3 _4 ]6 g0 Z# {- F
