外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 # D J) t* t7 F- g, k! P9 G2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ( N4 ?9 O0 W: B+ l3 p , j* B! E E8 L: i . t* { g9 [$ W5 G) z8 g" T# k
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。/ W5 m) v0 t% x
+ E0 E% F0 h; H 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 . \0 A8 R0 B% b8 G, _. w1 f h. s1 \
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。+ M7 o" m5 g4 l: _9 W
+ w, x% `$ l0 z/ E: n 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。" q* X8 Y" ^( [5 p2 r6 p% e+ a5 k
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。9 ^: T3 G0 r& x: p$ y$ I5 l3 _
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + Z5 |9 N6 s# u% U# h! U% U# O% d1 H6 }# ^0 p; E
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " A8 M4 E3 @7 ^5 q c- O* e4 b. h4 O; F) d7 v （责任编辑：杨海洋） ( j' Q6 G) R# J0 w/ f- u. c# t2 {2 \ 7 m& }4 u" ?6 Z. ^: Y Y( }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : o( L/ m( D W# t- M. D3 r7 e9 [6 T$ M( I2 k
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! @% h* q4 d$ ]/ D' V( K- c$ \
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ {6 U8 [& B9 p+ V 5 U" g' |3 V& U& I" ELet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! E5 ?3 {8 [/ l& P
3 U" H) _* O+ o) _) z) QAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. _3 L/ N8 B/ @! F- b: S
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . m0 V2 [7 x6 s* O3 g0 i
' S4 U' z) w+ N* L1 PFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! y- v: k: `9 R. }* s- A% K8 `
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # e1 w2 t4 i: {9 { ! {' a9 C Q1 Z- P& Y6 A' O* b"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " d' j6 t" M& W9 B
Q" b$ Y. ?! @8 ?$ Z+ _% rIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 b; {6 K; @& U4 u' z l9 s! _4 u6 T' i, H. A2 O( K
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' {3 T5 X) \" C, e& q
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * B- y3 Z$ w: |6 V0 t {8 r/ v & a+ O! @! S0 H) o9 I- @. o) HUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) s4 w" @6 R* I0 a! C' C& b 6 @3 J M* L' D) ZChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 f4 A2 r/ S2 g# B9 Y6 X 6 x% H" W+ P1 K; v% nIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. z* U4 K% j, N7 m @) G/ u- ~/ q0 C* w9 l0 y
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ j9 M" p8 E2 x+ m3 S3 p9 M. n# a 0 M6 y: U9 C& C- G2 h: ^"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. g$ F7 V$ i. g/ ?& g, }+ z - H% f' B* l; X1 N5 a# Y9 p; SGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 R- A h$ ^* r1 q0 w6 {. N7 c
) K, r- b7 k+ i, c+ i! y% KThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
