外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 s3 w8 k' P8 {+ u+ K5 ^$ x
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞# [/ v% M3 l* w. D* x: l
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 5 ]7 |5 I* u1 R9 E {9 C, a1 `) d M1 m8 s
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " ~4 C0 }2 O2 C9 R! ?+ w' N ! r+ ^$ Z4 Z9 r2 L 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 $ E6 r3 m3 `# C% @0 Z, L" m6 _5 L2 q9 Z' k- ~/ c6 |2 K9 i4 {# Z) F
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 $ v' b( S- E4 c' T' f: h- M $ |: c/ a+ X9 Z8 b7 f; R& F, T 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 + u% D6 N* s+ X3 v 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & f1 W' X) b! M* V& S+ @$ { ) r. ^& z; o; M, k 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。# c5 D% h3 J4 W$ N' \
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: m, c4 s* I* ]) o3 y# {
# |6 q$ Q2 o: H# t& FBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / K [: i. e/ ]+ w% J) ?# e ) A1 t& Z" x0 FA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. s1 V; p+ p% O2 F( n R" K" n
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 d; a6 Z$ g+ @ `% i6 G' L
% y5 l* y: i1 z0 L8 X5 zAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : w& a$ X' J. D. x" j. s ! A0 s" l: A$ y. aRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( b: `- I" h, M' f: N) J
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( `6 V6 s# t7 w! }0 A) a
# c ~+ X! c0 ?This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! k4 |0 b0 X# P) }: m$ [' G
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; q& f3 H4 U1 k; `# u; \1 P( i% K: c1 o% P& y
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) t( u) t) ?7 Z1 |6 z5 D6 }
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 Q% F) P- t4 s# ?( Q" L$ O
- \4 v! Z) M W7 Y+ e# EThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + _0 J M. I T% p6 O: A4 ^9 u4 }# M4 b4 F3 x$ r3 \
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % k, x$ a* |1 h. g5 F
! o1 C7 i1 d% w/ I. n9 W3 `1 DChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * r$ `" k- q! o4 c+ E 7 r0 D. `. f" ~1 W: `If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % K& B' ~) G1 w; Q: o# k3 n! j, @# W7 S3 X* ^
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / D, q8 ~9 K5 H* R$ A
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; J& d, k$ X7 w! R( I( O
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) q4 z7 ^7 X' X6 D * ?' I" ]; v! f4 j7 E' H% d0 t5 ?Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
