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标题: [中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑 [打印本页]

作者: Ampelmann    时间: 2010-8-19 07:33     标题: 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年0 o1 h# w8 l# q- E. h9 d: E9 t
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞
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; F, F+ _3 k  r' T' b中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。) s# D. F4 g. G

0 q2 g7 b2 |8 Y0 i7 ?  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。
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( u6 G9 k6 E7 P! t  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& y- E3 v# B7 w6 Q$ x& j3 K

7 O9 R# [8 D/ A! m+ c/ v- Y  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。& b! F; M4 k7 g& j! ~
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  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。
" D2 f) e" `( B* j9 j  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。
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  r, p# n4 U2 W7 C  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。; M' D" m9 @. S4 Q6 s/ n0 k
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(责任编辑:杨海洋)
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- Q$ R; Q! m0 f9 E: M$ D1 FRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters
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  h0 q( ^( F, I* q+ M( D2 [BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & [& k7 l2 ~- P0 v; |+ `* K* |

$ @) q+ c' D, E8 oA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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8 \" @& S/ y! G+ C& o8 ^$ w- ]Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) m# \3 {7 M% g/ q2 b6 x7 b

, Z0 z9 x5 P- CAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ f1 R, Z* Y; ]  G! h

" X) y+ l1 t: {Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past.
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  X/ m- I9 i% F$ A; ^0 |  r  ~9 cFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.   ~# n+ B+ L8 |! C8 y
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / b5 F  b+ P. ~4 ?9 D$ {

7 V$ E; }- z$ D1 e"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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: i; G4 J+ e4 p1 B" CIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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7 c1 ^8 ]: t+ OGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 a% e7 E; ~8 Q: U. u9 S" ]
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - U/ j: n/ o5 L) u( ?% \
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
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, n4 T0 ], n! b  a( ?( uInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / O0 o& u  S* Z: J5 S

4 N* p0 ~( p& i1 H9 _"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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# S" D: }; u( ^2 @Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 n5 q( g1 [8 s) y. V3 z$ O

' n" ^4 n) y& YThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.
作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:26

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作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:27






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