外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年% Y1 q8 P0 G7 Q! h2 |1 T8 B
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ' ]1 x- X: ~& @( W. d/ ] 4 V: n3 n1 v0 J- M2 i . v8 V0 u# j; u$ `中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。. I5 k! o/ Y& S
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 * }1 ?, }- U) ~2 J; C* F) |* Y # f b% |' D* g9 d* ^4 r( h 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 O& o Q) W8 W, u, B, i! n6 ~( C$ z$ W* K1 g. v' P
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 0 `: V0 n; d# c, b; @& k) M& ? g8 `8 Q
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 & ~) E% j7 ~3 E: ]* v 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。$ Y5 Z" s* U) F2 ]& R" D& {7 b
+ W4 f( N1 A" X# | 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: q \' |$ R5 J( q0 x) ~
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# B3 { C3 r( A( u. P, W6 N" F4 w; X3 V
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( N- @* k- T% D% @2 _" |3 _5 G9 I$ l2 Q @
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 8 [) l; w1 g& J: w+ W D1 K $ B) V2 \& j& YLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( T5 i- g l! J6 s) e" @* A2 |2 i/ c* Y7 s# |: u+ g, b
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 @. z' A$ C$ |2 C5 \0 { |3 R 9 b. V# P' m+ v8 p( }! s5 TRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & [* B# k' h- s: w/ l! s8 g( Y# u8 o9 N/ L# w
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - B2 b: [" p& ]
7 L$ s' A: A3 w& g, i! ~This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 T8 U! k4 M% V& F
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * m+ C; e Z7 M, E! [" A
2 u7 w* L* Z! H0 e9 X/ X* FIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + \4 T7 m# v+ n" N2 S ? . t3 |. @, _( V0 f) }Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 i4 P" f. G4 ]( J5 G7 b/ m/ W2 A, _6 o! f9 k+ Z9 z% D
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & [$ Q3 O7 R9 w7 E4 a3 o
6 I. X* }7 j: M3 s: SUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 T E, R! C' o8 Z- l% Y
4 {- [5 R* T* [/ q7 S, ^' DChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * q& D3 O! H' F4 S 4 M; z: a/ \, x/ N* AIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 {7 C1 l0 N8 [: F/ D6 A1 O+ a( |3 j" d( Y, U' y
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 k! O! C- n2 w7 U9 y+ ]# i6 v2 L4 T! m# ?& ^3 N C
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - v+ d9 {. u: S. M6 G : Q& d9 y( u' w4 Y; d wGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - S* q4 h& l/ P9 R . {* B& s% b3 F9 S9 m7 F0 V( FThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
