% S9 X% K! P. [) n2 M% B 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' O& D: H, m- O: g8 a% W ) D$ c# c* I4 n（责任编辑：杨海洋） & u+ _% Z! e5 U" ?+ R7 I 9 t4 h) P8 e+ w0 _Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 Z2 F0 O0 s( [) H
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 R& s$ M, V* n2 _; A- a
1 I# {8 t- b C( U: r7 v( @: {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . s# y4 `5 b5 b0 L% b% ?( G! |% U. b+ g( h/ ?' k- J
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. F: c5 q2 X( [9 ~: w5 F " y. U" e+ n$ dAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 s' @3 ]1 _) P4 ]% B3 O
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & E" l. x* ?4 e) G& u& S$ D
' I9 P+ v2 W) F4 v i* ?4 W! mFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. & C# }/ @* K: i* m9 [- i" t/ [) g' h+ q$ {" P$ q& }; Q! D
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; j( e$ ~3 }- J7 j z7 x % _+ s3 I6 n8 l, r& ^7 ^7 T4 J! T8 N! N"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 x* Y2 C) [8 R; [& \
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. # P: J1 g' q7 I( [+ R
' @& }! |& f0 K, l% NGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / ~3 Y q2 j* ?: I
! M& V+ D6 g2 e0 mThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : _# O8 d7 Z; C4 O: J4 l
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + M1 C3 S1 m- a$ F; V0 B6 ^
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . l4 w, P3 E. r D4 M( N5 k1 Z V2 X `
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' f/ o8 q& q8 Z8 m G, q6 P: c
5 i+ N3 X* u/ `International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 l: D; t7 V- J5 y! t1 a& q9 d2 _8 v! j7 K- b; x
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. |- m; K0 a- ^
' j6 i( W. t! k$ H/ k, Y$ v5 f% oGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! l, b8 G6 m8 N. e7 G: k+ l5 \
