外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 m y `* w3 s1 r0 U% |. K2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞; C) u& j5 p" H: }1 T4 j
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7 @* J: l/ g% j8 y4 ~* i% D# Q中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 V9 `" d5 d4 a) U+ s# L ~
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。7 z0 v, {& h5 g! t
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ) H/ ^# p! d0 s! w- \$ G' R# j: }0 q' s+ S: U. @8 Q
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。) D7 [4 C6 G/ T2 [" E
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。. f# T; V& P! t6 ~) C
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。! Z% t. J* S, v- ?3 q7 o+ i
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 3 |- }7 \4 I1 ]6 Z6 g5 s5 f 8 H8 C' G, G4 _2 q( |4 f（责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 g% G, q& }" G' s ) N3 B+ p' X* F1 \4 L4 q' [Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 r, e& ]$ w/ E! [1 ?
+ [. l/ Z1 E' a; M6 vBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ ^/ ~- C* f( h, v( k* H
- `* @; |& Z& GA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 2 ` ?" d: i! J9 a( I3 n3 B& p$ j+ P6 _( p5 b$ G! }
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / g+ K! v5 S5 P
' o1 F' V; e" hAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. , d7 V1 k" W8 z7 x+ ^) k, }5 v. u 7 M/ j* T" @" cRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 I: W4 N" N1 p5 c3 _9 [) a6 K ) j- z$ ?' e3 m9 f: C" tFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 V5 W7 y q8 {3 R9 J. S$ o; _$ G) O
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % R" A2 A ?4 R( e
y! I, H* l$ n# a; L6 ]"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ W: F6 L( O* |2 v) f3 M) G: V
, T; {8 C# O, l/ bIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 J/ j# N" L) B" [/ n( n
; @6 J/ B% M0 J9 w% ]Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! w& B7 N& ^ [ E4 \* O7 J
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 I1 r; i- t' n7 ^
- f) U A ]& \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 \8 T) f, C4 Y" s& F4 J& Q0 H/ C* V) [, n7 t, [
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % z' Z: e6 ~9 D4 g N4 Y {9 f, g8 R
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " r/ o, j% E4 B& F. m
' w5 [1 W! N4 b- t3 G/ V$ xInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , i/ ~: _1 x, O ( L) Z+ B- r$ p2 F' h2 [- V: N"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' z: D# y' n+ p& [3 L0 b) ?" X& K- }8 b8 u! v( |
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 o( P# ]/ `9 R2 { % C1 G& }+ G/ nThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
