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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 h" I! j1 B! d1 j( w2 Z: H9 K, g } # q2 G' H) l; p 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。2 }- u( D" b6 O: D, Q
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 . k4 a+ V/ t; s% A# l4 @ ; K* V9 `! q# A 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # E& A- m+ a6 d# y5 ^ 5 }! E% s' k Z, t% R 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 Y' _6 c/ d3 |2 D 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + z5 h0 e9 L( A1 L1 v( C: K7 t 3 ~! J( N' | \( L# W3 L! E 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " p. k/ @* U( S % m7 Z# v0 V4 N/ T（责任编辑：杨海洋） & Y; g5 P0 B! k1 Y9 Y5 j4 f# S* n& M/ v* M b& ^8 O& U. T# [2 p, W
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 k/ I, A6 H/ ^: F5 H! U: X @- w) u4 C, L
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + T; b% f9 [' [, P& Y) e. \: C) K1 I. j* i- `5 a; E1 {' |
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ X2 a1 q- e& _$ Z$ u. x. t6 b
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; A3 A6 W" L: t S: H$ H7 M0 {+ G J: k6 b# B0 _5 MAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " w- |7 }) E2 d: ~) Z# \ , x% I( w9 h, d6 m( ~$ XRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 u9 [: s" Z" |- `$ F9 a6 R3 B * t& w2 E3 _% i9 x( CFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / ~! K8 C% C8 Q* v! w% s. b# ]
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 p" F; Z8 R5 z6 i; T * W" g1 O w; m6 X. c- k z8 o; K p"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 R# p" w: E5 Z
" R& w7 n+ m$ d& q9 o' aIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . B% N/ S4 D4 r
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # L% {7 y3 p: P$ Z9 v4 j8 e. y9 g 3 y: h4 ~" N4 {$ A3 E. v. }That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) e! V7 l# M9 Y1 k
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' Z {7 ?4 {7 u; T& d/ G9 R- f $ W8 P$ q! u4 gChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 w3 @9 R; y/ o; K' R " [8 C& z) o" t. l/ p! G% EIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + l3 L7 V. z* w7 ^- `* q& [ . X) s3 t, ?/ |* b- A& cInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - D! e. W2 N0 M) Z3 X6 m0 ^
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : O0 c3 F* X& E- F9 ~7 F! Q
+ V. }; f6 y1 K1 PGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 2 I+ c7 j: t- c; s( ] # D t- S/ }/ A2 N. I2 fThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
