外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年+ ^6 w& G$ |; l& E
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 3 W6 @5 j2 h; H; N$ y$ m1 V* m' l0 a' K, ]: q) }4 V/ C
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。) p$ ]+ \4 a f! @. B) K
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- K9 ~% o! t) J( I1 e9 v& z# I% n
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。+ z% l2 u% B) [$ ^" k' r
- P3 }6 y, [2 C- y; ?; E 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( h. {& C, X# W- h F7 K
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。2 r. K5 G3 }4 _4 |! g( `7 \
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 " _$ r6 f7 J, N, L' g/ b F7 D6 Y& a" C% l2 P
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * a5 q7 J' K7 V 4 j V3 f( h3 w6 p# f4 u（责任编辑：杨海洋）$ ]8 x' y' q$ }6 d! V
}" e% Q' h! R5 G4 eRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters; j z0 c5 C+ x5 g) e7 v
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / I6 k. X1 c* l |* m7 F3 `( W8 e1 p9 e/ P5 V. H
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 _! |6 G; Q+ l! x: }- K2 }# v
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 w. s% T J/ X. u7 a8 o x6 h# ^3 g! S
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : B% e2 U( p0 P
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 n: g, D0 n" |: \- C+ j, B
% Q4 [0 v# w7 j" d3 Z6 M0 X; I; \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 s/ N" Q7 X$ k+ z5 y( D
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! n% p3 U5 w' p$ L, |
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 b5 |2 z( w/ Y9 }3 e1 k" { `' U3 M( J6 J3 C
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( _! ~- x4 i0 u! s$ q9 O& }' z ) T* q/ L5 b; M' t3 @) s, n2 UGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - _! D+ {* _- V) h# r2 m- y; @5 z5 X9 D* R
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 ~5 Y1 w' Q1 \, P0 C+ q
) r* W/ J, z! y6 u7 ~* {Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 Y& W; x J4 v6 a& U
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 K# Q3 P9 b1 Y9 D+ s1 O. B; n
- Z7 W/ {5 d+ K( w7 lIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 F4 r+ ^. m/ i( v! I, m+ c9 M: {6 A3 m/ |' \
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' G- }( B+ k* H6 W1 h9 x: U6 E" \
_* O* l5 F3 D) C"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # x; M ?* I0 x9 W/ J# `
0 P3 |* ]1 z, v, q9 SGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # E' m/ h$ U$ S* ]; p; j, f: m
