, r+ f7 N9 F0 U* }. J* N中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。- b2 v6 ` z2 V1 m6 y( E8 c
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。7 R! |2 Y% w5 g0 o" s4 U
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' r7 w- \ E1 u9 [7 T $ e. l1 S' i" p 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 Z$ A& g! Q b+ V; J3 p
( ~5 Q. e& R0 Y1 U 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( `& m3 `: u: w; O
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。0 |/ }8 w/ a5 _! x: Q
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * F6 N6 p9 e% n3 Q& U9 |5 d: | 3 {: |9 C9 F& r [（责任编辑：杨海洋）1 [$ J! g' S# U* Z+ R6 _( m2 Q
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 {; X" Q; p8 R0 X8 W; S \( K
0 ~3 W5 S5 W }9 iBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! k2 @% U1 k2 w' H1 }/ K : g! N# z$ M* N; YA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " w* V1 J' b4 G* g G3 Y6 D3 O( I: D6 @* ^, _3 g+ P6 n
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! Y9 z' r" W& z1 K6 U7 K9 N 0 G& b' N I. f& KAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . O9 Q3 q" m! J& V
# k" f0 L4 V2 P1 c* rRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & B0 a# p3 `! u8 ~/ ^) B* d: w, W
" R2 \& U$ f9 s. K& lFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. + |) X/ o. l3 B' @- I
( R8 `- X( J1 @/ l. m; hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 T. D) ^3 E' y$ ?9 {" {, ^, }7 R) h
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 ~2 I/ M3 ^3 r/ u; Y. i; s- H! u
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & e& d# x% d, P5 U6 G$ l p. ]) b: n! T% C+ H B, V
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * C. O! K- X3 Z$ Z3 g, O
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 r) S5 d& Q1 Y6 I! D
2 Y9 C1 H; H2 V0 T: @Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : C4 S5 x+ v/ W" z" n * L, u5 d$ Q5 X5 D$ XChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * z* }" @4 F2 A3 z$ E
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 p; Z; o) h2 i: b 2 v/ S+ n9 m! Z& D$ Z5 T/ \/ |+ d' uInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % a- F8 u- [& L4 c5 u0 K1 b) T
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 a, ^% r& n* T' U' M# e- k0 [8 u4 A( j1 K6 V
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . x9 W4 Y) H: P9 M6 A+ i, M0 y$ G: b; I! I E" W
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
