外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 7 O# e7 V" R' b6 K2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞5 p H7 d1 c. F; J h
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 9 b# y7 q* C* t; {8 v 6 m4 C3 A8 w( M5 E3 K9 O 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。( o3 P6 c& k+ a. q$ e
8 E+ e+ u( W$ e& i 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ! C% z$ i8 o2 q8 w$ i / P4 G t& L X* ]4 ?: y( o 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # ]% |- e }) s# L+ c; K) u2 I5 H. j# s4 g. ^! r
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 # F, C) r. ~ p 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & v1 J- Q1 s4 d8 f * W& S6 O; l: i! i7 }3 Z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。) C$ r8 v" ]+ p' o1 [. m1 |" j
8 c: ]& j. _' X" ^7 d! |; [（责任编辑：杨海洋） ' t# l1 O* L" A4 O: ^- [* Z $ B6 @" ?0 }' O) p6 G2 k yRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / A& ^( m N8 m; @; }: D* `6 {" @! Q3 W/ T- x- r* u
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 L8 H, u& y$ d% T' M0 g' J/ b5 i" c+ M$ Y2 g! H; H+ F8 g3 N* ]
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( F# Z# c) A, x# Z% {2 m5 L" ^/ h2 j& b
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 j& u7 E7 ^. v8 l+ A1 T$ d. W6 B, ? M' s* ^7 Z+ z
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / E; Z4 J( c$ V4 @- v : h) ?/ ~/ t& }! h! iRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 j1 A. P6 X" I) h; Y! T2 O- i7 T
4 m; w* y) N* yFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 w4 U; y" E3 E( u" S0 c! r* a# K $ k- w. m+ O q7 X' J. CThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / }* ?6 a& e2 V. u
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. s& Z2 _' s( A) `1 T$ t: P6 f
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 4 [6 s1 y" j2 {
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 P; l5 K& z9 `/ r$ e8 O& | ! ~. P/ Z/ l+ B; N' uThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , I' b4 V) u O7 |- O$ K
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' r1 D7 N- @( W# ?1 x( N. P8 L" ]6 `3 v2 b3 G; c
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ) P/ z, }6 p1 I) Y- e) _% b 7 }' C; m9 T9 u* W# h3 W' BIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . q& c4 @$ s/ ]/ d$ n3 y G
6 Z% R0 o% D+ q2 c7 jInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 }; C1 C% S; ~7 z
# [& @) @$ G' s. d: C. V# E6 ["Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & B) y: h4 F" l4 a2 F! q
9 M' {1 G: M! fGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . k- {. u- }3 ?1 ]
