; r" w3 m" Q; ^9 }+ A$ J 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 $ m, |5 Q& d; W- ^9 Y$ f$ n- l9 }+ f8 m$ y/ }) d! h
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。9 i) n& x) F/ r& y" [+ s
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 9 W7 [/ _8 }. Z3 Q8 x/ e: `2 V: }7 A) y
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! d. }9 `) Q1 N& P. T3 s( `- \6 W
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters # S7 m9 p/ L: @$ I" C i D4 b; R* x4 oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : R/ S: L$ |# w/ M0 a" h% l
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' ^* G& Y( o0 z6 o3 b* U K: {6 e* g# k
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 Y; M) |8 y1 S9 N2 d# Q R, Q6 @8 H4 y; F" ]2 }( ~2 l4 m- z
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ |9 o0 k( G1 O7 I) k4 l5 h
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 A1 e, S* v+ u: n/ X7 s) f! [' H9 F2 l5 ~
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. * J8 _% l1 z9 ]4 Y
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) g' m! L3 g1 g$ S. t
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 Z' L5 u2 u8 S; A7 ~% v1 ^+ k) g$ A) }, D2 t( l8 ^4 u* d( }
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 C# a4 S. i- n5 ?5 b4 t( B + T) c& P# {0 k2 L9 L# b( PGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) s# s: D- Z* I# v+ o8 d. Y/ J" N: y
8 d2 @+ i. |' ^2 K9 Y6 UThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . a @/ E+ j' p: {! v8 t" S- E8 h 3 A# _3 ^4 F7 }( dUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 ^' R, }# v0 V$ V$ i1 ^
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : a7 a( _' e/ M& g2 S8 C7 m
$ |; b/ m6 ]9 B/ c4 ^* Z5 CIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : @9 B& k& b9 s7 J
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 2 } C: ^" [' { J% ~$ l" f* V; i1 a p6 w
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , c' Z; W: B, E/ e# S9 K* V; n; Y+ E# T
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + k* i* v$ W; C" F* f1 Q
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
