外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年& v+ g8 T! }5 [( L
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ! L$ v9 N; p$ U( z 1 b0 @& J: L1 N* j- M " E$ v4 ?+ `. R. o1 ~/ S中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ( h& a# z: Z! A& m0 A. n2 ^, ]+ Y7 B5 ?. E3 ?* n
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。& G, w# |3 O) m
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。" X- r5 c. s5 }, v# j$ |
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 O7 L# i. a" Q0 R8 k. p! F! i/ _9 D, M U" h5 q
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。# |+ }3 w$ e7 v- C
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。2 o- c# R/ Y7 E) n
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% J& }% x: F! S' W+ c% F- p4 f
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& M* P5 {& m' t% Q5 i$ [* Q8 r
6 Q8 \% I1 f5 |( E" oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * H$ w( y5 D; h
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ) T' A% I4 Q& Q
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , p: N4 x0 {8 ^4 N! j/ ]5 Q
: k# ?8 | V. Q$ \: G9 u- ~After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 E# _. {4 k) }! ^
+ k6 l( R% O# B4 g! B9 r8 _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 J, u& j: n, Y
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; I! r, a' J C/ x4 ?5 h
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ W$ Y* C! Y0 Y) Y8 f8 J * y3 A7 e) m4 o: Y# {# e( ~2 A$ a8 o"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 j7 |- {5 }4 K, a1 [. R9 \# _ h6 ]& ~ k/ I! h0 A
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + J% i) F8 Q( U8 \5 q$ j+ {9 w% p7 y0 Z4 `9 \- R
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ P0 o4 @5 V0 c( Y) V5 X3 w5 q' S4 ^0 ~, m
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ o. f) u. o; y* C/ r9 U/ u6 [6 m% Q; ^+ V3 r
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % @9 S [$ s0 n
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". w4 [! O& Y1 \( b7 r' X : n7 P. ?7 a; M7 n5 t5 VIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 T1 l% [* B+ O# H! n, |4 c" k( Y. ?# B+ L# D2 m* n5 U! a
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - y$ g, z1 v2 l7 j, I3 D
5 l! D2 |: }# v/ \: ?9 V0 n2 d# q3 M"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 u9 N. m' J4 F& t4 U
2 B4 T% G6 m$ H2 YGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 L0 D; [3 N: `: L
& y0 U: h0 r j+ T7 v: O, iThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
