1 f. D0 G% n$ W* e$ g# ^ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。! `# c/ g$ {4 H& x$ V
n' n; e, k/ s: H- B 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ; j. S, F) g" i6 b6 [/ Y P" v, \8 L& \: l# y0 S, L+ J
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 , r& s% G# h% ]4 k ! z( y, J" L: y( C, r0 P 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。* H, _8 h( J4 r0 @' y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。! o: k9 G! k: |
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 3 r" Z! D0 U, H0 v& c+ P : j5 b- I; R. g& H1 D（责任编辑：杨海洋）/ h! Q, w3 _% ^1 R) |, I y/ I0 W
0 J- g0 W8 j/ h( iRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters # {0 h8 b5 X) i1 y" K. ~ 8 p! l1 W$ o% s0 V) M) cBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + W) @& U& o9 O8 f7 B( W4 s" W9 U+ W: d8 O5 F H
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 H6 n- ]* x" I; T6 L; h
5 n8 D, f/ Q! C! g' Z0 g/ lLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 s( @ R# r: L, G + J/ d) [& s# D( jAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + o8 E4 }' M8 X N : \6 r, k+ u: kRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 J# U3 W/ L: c* L
( i9 e1 R/ l- D' J( P8 O0 |3 |First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( p/ z% ^) G/ W+ C
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) k1 A+ e) m- Z. ~
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 W, F6 u: m1 x6 T
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 J* W6 z4 W& |; t3 r
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + T+ n7 H$ A& J% F O- h; F
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 W: d, Z P: d g) \# i" S2 t. ^( |" W# S
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % W o2 I, l9 m1 A3 f 2 H8 U0 x( U8 p2 h# GChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & g5 i- s' q# R6 w7 b! K7 C3 X- T1 _, X+ Y
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + h: q' P5 H; d) M9 Y3 k3 o7 U
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ ?% P" U+ y6 E- q' [ 2 M7 Q$ ? u4 C& Q1 b7 L/ j"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 v2 {! N! |7 q* E& Z" y& O+ n4 F4 g
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( @, {$ t1 a( C 1 j9 f7 `' _# @& p$ iThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
