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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 9 S7 I, r5 K; Y0 a 6 H) u4 k3 B u% N, E6 p 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ' q" O# D. h5 ?( r - m5 g) q% T' a% x 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & V9 [8 I! }- p+ e. @( ^5 s 8 T0 t6 I5 d2 b% ^$ l p1 V5 u" K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 , L: N" i, [) u0 ]6 ^. Q+ [, C/ i/ Z! M
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( t' T" Y" ]8 O- |& Y3 n |
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 " C# O% A$ I, c% x+ x7 j 3 M& K9 F0 r& U& P3 o9 g 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 5 f$ X" [3 F$ N- G/ x' y A* c- v （责任编辑：杨海洋）; s$ L2 @: `0 w! I
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 \* ?: W) V* ]
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % q% t3 s; Z0 _7 ~$ o( \1 i+ O. I# H& c3 s' t. W7 E- c
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ) g7 l0 O3 A5 B" b+ H% C2 \, C 2 K# g4 w* P% u% fLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . Z) p9 ]" s8 @$ P* _
( h8 R3 m- h: Z5 k" B9 mAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 X9 v8 N o5 Z8 }& x , T& v( ~# T" v1 E! q3 X& Q0 {; @Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : H$ b9 I8 A" y+ [8 E3 G
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # f( |# t8 o( C: |/ ?/ n
* @5 Q& e4 G+ N |This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 o/ d& h+ p2 `/ b- D8 ]* \; R- p8 n# J: _. f+ d4 s5 F
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 }6 x) z8 ^, }" C1 ?( P8 p3 A/ g1 z+ T5 I& M
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. @9 ^ s0 k8 z, o0 v7 y2 P * M$ A6 c0 d! w. \Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. : `% u2 `7 E( R x2 }! ~/ ^/ [, l9 F/ t7 [; _* q& Q: i( t0 h
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( }, b. `, [% _- ?& [" V ) n% U9 F6 Z u0 ` W2 m; oUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 }! D0 T; c. w1 Q! r. [ $ J' o" u7 W+ x4 h2 |+ E+ L2 Z0 XChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 n$ P6 D1 F0 v2 C0 K* k9 a$ a# \* v0 D$ ]0 w" K
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 v7 y' k* w9 O! V- A' R+ z% l4 ?! g( C% s4 h
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' n9 N1 m3 c& u- o/ X
: H( m- M0 W( {7 r. f# ~"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " [; j4 L( G) \" J% ]: }( U. _& F* c$ c& t2 O" ~
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 n0 m) T7 Q% I% H. G' R. i! { 5 f. E& P! A: B' r. L+ H% eThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
