外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年8 ?+ Z G! Y1 F8 K5 @) D$ S, M% n A
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 . c6 P1 @4 K2 `% e) n( m \ $ i, R7 G5 K2 a ) d8 F3 e/ b: ~' C1 X! d$ {, B
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。$ [0 R+ F# d* ?
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。( A3 b. ?/ I8 I; G {0 K N% y) g
7 w- b6 {2 t- F8 h0 }8 M 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。: E' P/ W3 q l+ d7 L- B. ^
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 . ^* W. f# P, D8 B) f/ f- V$ _& h' h) ]) T# c
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 + \( p/ O) o) t1 o6 d 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。+ u; O* B F7 j) a; Z
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 1 P) ?: r! L& L1 T. `6 I$ |; T8 I' i3 S# O+ K, u; K; R* o3 E- R) s$ ] （责任编辑：杨海洋）) }& Q" k, y: V; u. e4 B/ Z* I
& O% N0 m3 h; m' ZRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ( A6 j/ {9 A9 K. K& K6 s( K5 e0 [! I+ Y9 A' Y. a, v
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 `0 d/ J1 m8 _3 q: e) U7 D) ]
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 c/ P; R) x* ~2 {5 p& G( p, E2 M' S2 p
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 X+ @+ i2 h/ y7 i# E! r- g5 D+ x# k; ~! ^4 V% z+ ]- h% S1 K6 M
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + Z* L w& H5 C1 Z; W
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( ]: n- b% N$ {0 s% e! j
9 U' b3 N/ p4 c' E! Z: ^) x) AFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 6 Z' ~; g$ K; l5 d
/ R, e) S1 O# |: ?- [) vThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 [# B6 S, y4 Y0 C2 I0 g
/ w: l3 F; A: ? o; S3 D"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' s8 ] |8 h1 k- G @% e1 F ) Z- E5 \* u' ?In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - o( M8 g) X8 O' v
b5 A3 s- j$ f3 v& G5 u0 LGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 F3 I/ X) S3 K/ W/ B0 s* u, E% ^# O% d
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , H6 k; E c: p. }4 A# R& R5 U, v
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # j& ?8 I/ n5 _4 S, _* \6 L* r$ F
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 \$ T$ ~$ ^+ S) V' [" _% }9 Z; a/ j& }9 K2 @3 p
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . q# b1 S; f$ _
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) w. Q3 O6 v: {1 `5 D, u" h
# ]( {- I/ ~& z( p3 f! }"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " \1 @1 D" E- b; B ~
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. . B- L! }( Y: L8 f7 f' e8 I4 P" T
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
