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标题: [中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑 [打印本页]

作者: Ampelmann    时间: 2010-8-19 07:33     标题: 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年% z! L0 v' A/ W0 N0 J
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞+ J& l* I) S1 o% F) k$ ^( R: a

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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。- }- y) u8 _+ }

+ O' q! A) J. P9 O  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。$ p) l$ A! q& C1 f, x- o

  p+ d$ _7 ~5 u( ]7 c  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。, P' L$ u( s  D# ~! z: t6 Y) }

+ T! G9 y( o$ @2 U; J0 p$ ?9 Z  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。6 w, ^0 M) z; N, e7 Y

5 j* S" J+ I% W" o& w/ K  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。
% Y8 O* O$ }; L$ D4 q7 i  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。( Q8 F0 u( _0 P1 v/ B, _
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  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: e: E+ \9 R8 B

4 @. m9 L2 ]1 m4 S& s4 C(责任编辑:杨海洋)
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters5 y/ }. A6 M2 v( x5 I6 m: T( K3 g! `

: V; z- h2 M$ A. e+ f! U6 Y& QBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows.
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 i* z( e4 Y- Z) f! c$ w

* L) M& a" p2 S! hLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) @5 w0 [) @( @; P: [3 A& z3 N

! E, @' K0 j0 n/ H# B8 v) z- }  J) d6 |+ DRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + o2 D( }+ H$ U3 }0 N1 A. ]2 X
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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5 \% \6 W, Q$ g$ @0 B2 X$ kThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 t" X8 X! c! ]6 R' |# L  q+ H/ L

! s( @. M. q5 ^" v0 }"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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* E4 T9 c# ]$ u: }In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 L% G( h3 z3 x  u

5 e1 Z. ?' W' K1 z( U% g4 T5 MGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 O  c) ]$ C1 c" J1 ~6 F4 \" p

: u5 x( s- X) f& \- PUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " ~- J' T8 t, r- I# r* U5 p* O. l

2 V* E' z% R" `+ Y! D% ^China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % J+ I) B" X0 r* O. y1 J
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % o) Y6 ?* b0 G$ d8 D" y

4 h0 ?- F4 U2 P6 o* l- ^( hInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : }* c8 V" ]+ ?: d3 |
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' X4 R/ R% q$ @8 p$ Z1 y
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.
作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:26

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作者: wahahaha    时间: 2010-8-31 09:27






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