外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年. b$ S- ^% d K# L7 \* ~: h7 M
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞4 p% O- K' Q9 m. K- p F4 s
, M1 Q2 P( I' ?! \" _5 w% l $ \1 Y+ n. U) W. P% o中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。; E# U3 L A/ d. T) q' s# g+ C
; l) M- U' R8 K# `) Q0 m 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。! g+ b8 R& a; b4 |8 O0 J# ~: l
4 J' t. q% `5 ?+ d: n. x
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。8 |- Z) i) N% n7 T& ? [4 X
2 n( u6 l$ n1 ^& e9 e# O 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( l' o0 R/ Q* B0 v# F
1 C2 T9 M4 N) v- l+ p 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 , y( F; @8 N ^5 O; ~% U4 i) u 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 |, Z% K: N3 @) |2 X
- N3 m( z$ ?% O" b2 E; b# i
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 % ?+ I( [! b& X0 Y4 Y; P/ \; l: o( P8 j2 U: W: P* l （责任编辑：杨海洋） ; l7 M9 I) c! t% D% N" w , L$ t7 W" w: w) BRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ! u K: K8 Z G* h9 X6 Q$ x2 i : _/ g& g3 J1 `6 ^0 K" tBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 d5 a( A1 `! f" t% ^ ) g+ C3 E( ~/ |! p0 C; K- OA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. k% s" m3 b1 i1 r6 [" d3 i) s+ M5 n S. [& p
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! e: m9 [3 T+ t1 [0 O
3 p! E2 \; w7 o9 B- X( T* sAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 f+ Z! u0 N0 I% ~. e" h
* ^, ~" |0 x. O* u/ b$ [8 ERoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 E6 I/ |$ B1 V0 C( b
1 C: y' a! n4 K% ^2 a8 {( I: B0 B
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 I" Y) c3 T& f) P& g; f; [* k6 {; z9 D* }9 A
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - p$ g' ~) O) R- @5 q! T7 s, P) T# l7 i+ {$ w2 @, W! f
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 v d) k- l* J* v4 l
. a* V* q/ b- _
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! N: @/ i( i0 w
) d, {& [& Z% N' A9 {5 l$ B$ I$ v! U GGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , l8 J' D( `, Z1 {
) @, B# s8 h2 A) z1 Z1 [( J6 iThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ V5 h4 F& c5 [# q% i
L [& H" W2 q6 V! A7 v
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 Q, S% y9 j' p( k1 }6 Q
* X8 k' I( {7 g" n( `( p
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 i9 P3 i8 ?* }* B & X: R+ ^+ C9 D/ }; OIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 J' ?% A9 t$ a6 I7 ~. A% e+ }: D0 c8 w, e/ ]. @0 g5 D2 s3 V, e Q
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; H8 ^0 J0 c3 t7 z a, X
6 j, ^6 o2 q/ `; i9 H U, ["Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # R g! R& G2 z+ [, O- Q 8 M [! F x2 DGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 U3 c7 L8 L8 i! K: \7 o' c# M k/ z( e7 `: U3 K
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
