外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年3 r. F' u' w# {
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞$ ^0 p& z' Z4 J6 T$ k7 U, ?4 E
: r; }5 {+ L2 K0 }& u$ y 3 Q; \/ T- p1 |% [中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 1 F$ R$ g( O- N* \! Q& f6 {* a9 V$ l0 Y5 K9 }# N1 P a. L+ t
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。: x1 z: d t+ }) @/ N
6 \2 z! f7 l. F( C7 `% v 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 $ x- J$ j+ ^& H6 o7 U6 a ( C2 D4 t8 m5 ^1 O 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ( B P }: A7 V$ q9 G! P / j& C$ O, g6 M- E5 N 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( i/ P2 U% S3 `* T+ c+ M
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# V( I! s, C3 U: B2 f; t) k1 v
6 t4 o! [ V" \/ B3 ?; J 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 3 T* [8 S0 L2 O4 W& P * M( b0 I2 x5 X% w P（责任编辑：杨海洋） 7 T$ R. X3 l5 s $ ~8 X) w# ?" B/ e" E# gRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters3 I' _- [ L+ ~3 l, I8 a" ~% o9 i1 @
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 n0 e# B P0 X7 H7 N8 ~1 F" h2 A9 D
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . K- P( H4 r U
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( g4 t4 }0 |: ?8 ]+ |. G# N$ @: D
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 v- g$ P' i v8 v4 k
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . y: i! \3 i2 Z. k
! @5 N# x# Z: V, V5 E6 X+ P+ f! |3 I0 k+ _First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 \, S3 m3 N/ I) c$ m. G " g% n6 m& H/ }0 V% A8 I, GThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & `9 k9 A& K2 q2 c. o9 G+ k* l; l+ s
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # ]8 e/ R% }$ `( \& S& m
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 a( f2 s! \' q8 {
" H& l5 v* }* s$ KGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 X9 S+ p0 V" }1 S/ e
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 X4 i/ s" E& A3 t" Y 7 ]. T; |2 z h# QUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 L) w% A) k$ j' |% z. A
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * J* a( \# t/ C G7 y2 s
0 K$ |8 B) O! l# V0 CIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . y0 Y. S. P8 r( v+ i |
, N \3 I7 e) CInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - A% ]% a+ y" F* ^ d/ L3 I0 D# s" {. } 0 _3 G: [/ x% G ^9 r2 ]"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . [6 y: b. _3 Z6 \1 f8 S& V
$ m4 ~: `, M: Y, c+ uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! B0 j4 c+ S9 q& e: d" a
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
