外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ; O; I8 ~1 f( y7 D: ]8 P: x/ z2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞. O' ^0 n* G& M! ?% e3 ?( e3 H( V$ ~: \
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。) N' u' S0 Q2 L, n! I
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。) u0 \, G7 y1 @
8 K ?$ \% Q4 g4 K/ O 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 d o: G- K9 s+ L b; s' q G3 {3 k5 |" H* u
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。9 \2 _( y0 y; u( X M
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 & E2 T) Y. B+ T7 p, |4 z 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。4 o/ \9 w: y8 Y6 q: n) f# ^7 b( C2 o7 i
8 R0 M" ?- A" @+ G9 s 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 5 R+ m$ y+ D0 ]+ u0 @6 h& U) |( H* b9 n5 `* S% ]) V （责任编辑：杨海洋）0 s2 p! z5 n' n. v
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 6 H2 G% w& u X; w, ^* @( X9 G6 X: z5 P. i% q
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # o/ v1 A: k# Q. H
, A- M8 x# K, {1 a$ r7 tA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + Y: `8 O3 u8 J/ d+ g. |7 l: x( X/ b3 D1 C2 b" r
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , C$ m- c6 d/ p$ ~) h; @4 m' T) g/ U8 x1 F" V1 B( m: C- O+ N0 \ \' Q
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # v9 R. l; A' y1 J, p6 P8 y5 @- w2 m; J8 ^
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * f, o+ G2 Y$ j% P4 t( l( ^+ n* R) i' M
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 8 E8 i$ D: j% j7 i
: f) @0 A4 B( g1 l5 |This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 k: y m. e' e' u
- r) n' j! M5 a7 a1 M8 t"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( o f4 k9 a5 p6 j) J' l9 S3 f( s 0 n( v; o4 _& z2 d! l% ] xIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " p+ l$ j6 F* N# w3 ~
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * E3 t5 ]' ^- i8 L! K! V" P4 `9 n( H4 |2 s, F; k0 Q/ K2 W
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; ~; ~* f0 i( S( b $ ^- z/ @& T: ?; R gUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 a! `: B) o- k % k# F3 |: X' |1 VChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 ^: D, t2 ~% A3 L! N9 f
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 Y( O# m( b% m, p
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' L, e" u" E( I: A7 }( `& W, G 3 F0 w/ \) K. f+ U. p2 `7 s"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " P% j1 H6 |1 k5 V5 |6 E" h8 M8 k" p' h$ ?' p% u- {$ J
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! b: t5 p, w" c' Z' T, I
- R) b. }9 U, eThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
