外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 9 o& Z9 q8 r' u2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 5 ]9 Q/ Y- q. K l , x& X: O* G7 r6 } % v) w4 J8 {: \5 J0 Y
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 F4 s. d7 J6 T( J9 W+ a* `6 B* x7 N r7 q ?2 {: J
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # Z3 q/ A* c+ h+ E) n% t/ {* L " A8 _* L1 I- A% x 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。9 X5 z" s8 U/ @( J
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) q0 K4 V3 T9 [/ P0 H8 S. G. G* b, Q' g% ~1 A. i
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( v7 b" k. U5 |# x, d" v' L7 _ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。# Z9 N% B T: k4 @7 |
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。( f$ c4 f7 h& f B! L
: T2 S' Q, W u3 J- @ `（责任编辑：杨海洋） - y9 u3 B( T6 X5 _) I @7 e1 G' f1 C 9 L$ u# S }" O" D; oRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters- n" J; a' d1 t+ o E
" ~" }; t7 R1 |) J& `: l- g6 {BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 r0 d; ?7 `( f2 A& n* }3 g. p
7 v ]0 j/ f3 y1 \% YA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( d r: [( |" T4 x9 u% v, s/ E- m& ~3 b
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * Z* j4 Q, |! S5 U( A! x) S# Y, b& R' E0 r% [5 x1 B
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( B" O; e3 s8 C* X N7 Z
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) z3 u% a. }8 l4 P: w, c
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " \& k3 y0 W6 j5 M$ u
) g3 l/ V% G. [This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) _3 k7 q$ Q( a+ h/ g( N
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 I/ ]+ g9 u2 G) ]# x3 |- ]/ G ( s9 k( _ s6 ~2 nIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 a: M# K; T! L8 Q, g * ?/ g, Q$ S8 N) s0 z: R% k" L6 {Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 \, i. U2 `5 \# h$ \7 [ i W+ h2 z4 D
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 C& g+ e E/ f' K5 f; d U$ _8 Q4 W. ?" `- K
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! h1 a$ a! m: ]* \% M- [
3 g+ Z% q; K" B7 ~China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % E$ N( m3 x( z$ @/ q7 u3 s3 Y2 j% t4 E# x E/ k2 A) f1 t) N( H
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * ~, U# ~' _" v5 O( R
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + p$ \/ Q- e) {( D- k. ] 0 P3 T( V' g0 q2 A* \3 C9 z q9 |"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 I0 ]7 S; W& Z3 W" E |" |
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 c! h; p4 _. h0 ~8 E/ K7 \; u
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
