& T" l: w) g5 ~1 t& u, k 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ' D5 ~& s, C9 y! ~* ?8 Z ' ?4 F% O+ }% `) ?3 f, }% ^4 P 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。) R) W- A& m- F! |+ H+ |
7 d- d/ @: X5 K, F3 @ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。6 `0 j# w$ c' W5 n
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * P, B$ r& b% D, N/ n' B; m 2 F6 h/ ~) K! I @) E 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) c4 `8 E- D( L; c9 \+ @: x& `" ]) p) u; g6 n& _7 Z5 a （责任编辑：杨海洋） " K9 N' \0 c/ E3 I- }% t+ W. e4 Y! H- E# W
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 }* \/ Q& Z$ L) j! n, G2 W. d3 _8 n/ n/ r- ^# n
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 \8 [ o$ d, H. O+ ^
& m D8 |9 B4 X4 f |; s1 qA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 ]8 T" N7 Y' ]7 X8 H6 |' U p" r& W
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 J+ V$ G- |6 I- v# p) @' e7 t+ X0 A
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( Q* [2 g8 r# c0 `# Y9 Q
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ) P+ p) C, }7 E6 X' u; A! z/ k8 _: F3 \
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 8 y( [' E* c/ t2 p ) R; r2 E! ]9 _8 l6 {: n+ WThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : w; ~7 I- m4 l) l$ q7 ]9 H
, S7 n# H! u5 `- {; M' D"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ i' `" p& i9 h5 A* \; `! S7 x
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. + ^; z$ K7 r {, a
) Q" E# m3 H4 K0 Z. U9 ^- |( UGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( D1 M/ z/ {9 B" o3 ~$ i) t- J1 v * O; l7 w* S# `) B3 F1 R JThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 }7 K6 `' ?4 Z3 k* j : Y) j2 H% |7 g- Z' `8 IUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' o9 k- }5 k- |, A: Y0 U
) s* @# ?+ j( N* ~9 d$ r. {3 t( F' OChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # f9 g, o B' d' s; D0 w, I4 M8 q
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 _( h" \* A( q8 e% r# }4 A8 n- c! o
* G7 b" o4 O3 }* m5 z+ S& QInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & R% A) q3 `* s5 k5 J7 o
, j1 b4 V3 Z4 ~5 g2 `# I# h"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & ^, h3 V- K- M. x( Q& t
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * F3 \2 W: @0 i( E( q0 W2 P9 y
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
