& ]( C1 N, m: `- {" b- d中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。, Q3 L' f3 `' N- u. j! ^1 C) T3 g, S
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 : O- ~4 X' e9 T: k8 U& t1 R: t' _
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 {3 F6 t% A4 }- B" T/ U2 }# {
7 T& j1 T9 b/ W b. Q5 z3 w; Y8 _ 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( c ^/ _! E P7 v4 |( f
3 \: D' ^" E d/ f 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 / \* @0 M& y' V! n5 R5 b8 D 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 3 U/ e- E" D; [( U6 \: y / {% D4 \1 L. I: n/ @$ { 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " D: ^# h% |$ `3 Q0 x# |- z* c 2 U3 v j8 U) b) \) K# x0 S$ q$ E* F（责任编辑：杨海洋）& R$ B4 x0 H" r/ N/ c( J! \8 @
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters , g+ @/ V7 ]% k 7 z' `) q+ Z; j2 L4 O) t! ABEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 d, ?9 I5 _2 L- p7 V5 V. T
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. A% D R( @4 H" V0 R) g9 Z, q$ i
: f8 ?$ g) D& c" YLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : f9 T5 {; O, C2 o- `' n1 O
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % {% b' v3 @! h. f {
" |$ z! P6 _, g8 }: GRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! k$ E" C. \4 w
" }* v' ] R6 a2 A9 B+ ZFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 Q+ p( h, V) Q) K0 c% A5 T8 U
. K7 e1 u' v. l" pThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " `" e y- Y) ^2 `, v
! M" e2 g& R: o6 g' M( l"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 D- k) Z' V) E1 n! ^- ]: |0 V* O0 t# O8 W. Y% Z7 C v
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % H9 a7 ?7 G& B3 A3 n: G1 v2 t% \5 `( {
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + B7 e* s' Z: {+ \7 Y2 B% g% A4 N5 v6 E% { i7 K2 @
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) M% |5 g) W0 d- ~, ~# c6 k. L ( O4 c$ |, I6 N0 r4 Y' tUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! N5 u- Z, R* k- Y: k$ ^
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 |5 |$ g) I7 y5 T# w0 _' }
% ^+ \9 R# |1 O. d9 YIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( L- v: e4 r, l, E. B
* o5 H( ~/ f3 f" c% Z& B' MInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; h5 H4 n7 P5 k 2 E g, L/ [, I! a1 U* h% P"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 H% C" {* `5 A5 Y4 ^$ r6 ^: w6 y1 d5 ~ i0 C* A2 k
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! E# b. V& B( O3 L% F/ F: N7 E0 O- M! ]' k: s
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
