外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 5 F, o, t) s& r/ s/ I+ N2 X& J2 F# i2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞: h5 O& Z8 S9 ^7 v) L
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. L& D3 V4 q4 \7 q中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 , X- d5 C- O, Z! k# ^5 Z- O8 E1 E% }8 H
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。9 H) l8 R5 |9 J3 g- S
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 8 F5 ~3 y+ Q7 R) Q) j$ Y/ M/ K6 ], Z, y( N$ Z/ X7 v- h
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。* a. m4 P& b1 I. K$ P$ X4 j2 r+ N
% s3 r% u# ]" S0 r$ ^4 O8 u! A 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。% y% Q4 [3 K. K* j( ~: k9 P
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 S$ W- Y0 b7 q6 R% ~; R2 C- A4 k9 ]
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。9 n2 l9 a, U0 L% ~0 h3 V
4 Q1 s- S' ~ Z3 j- y （责任编辑：杨海洋）2 C( P. x3 `7 T9 l
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters' u! L! D# q- Q6 |
! Y$ Q. j; ?7 s% A+ b7 w9 }BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 6 G @5 O( v0 F: Y 5 h' z) |4 V; [+ o+ O: EA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 k$ m5 @" m8 t; f" b , ?- K) h1 [; E, h1 z: F" A1 CLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . s- I/ h1 z( g: [1 k2 f 8 j4 G& j; w' M. SAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' g2 O6 n8 r( s; c7 X# u4 D& p; f
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ F$ j. B* Z; Y& o3 k, `5 z
. R0 `9 G8 t3 U k; ZFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 a- Y4 C- ]7 f7 p1 M* r
) t' d/ t* K/ t6 s3 _This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 ~+ u U$ z5 `5 g9 w9 ?" A3 }
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . {' w$ y: y3 w* Y' g & z6 Q" w C3 m6 X$ zIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. , |! s% f" e Y/ J2 J! H; S0 d
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) q. W4 F6 c4 a; i. K' W
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " @) [1 b1 L/ m& q/ ]
% x$ U8 ?% K3 S& q8 ~$ n, A% g* W6 \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. a! m- u% ], Y+ U& A: ~9 {& k/ Z: @
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . w0 T* ]9 K f( m2 `$ D* ~# e) X3 {8 ?) F. p) v7 g6 b- ?1 T/ @
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. " N8 ^) v9 O3 g + n1 F' R) Q! m7 p" a8 KInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 v+ ]( l. r: S 4 K$ j& n$ Y0 _5 r3 Y"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. T" w6 _/ z. y5 x% G% B
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + d$ H [ _3 ]" H/ Z# x* h3 s4 P! ]% a$ h/ s# m) V9 s* B
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
