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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。- }- y) u8 _+ }
+ O' q! A) J. P9 O 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。$ p) l$ A! q& C1 f, x- o
p+ d$ _7 ~5 u( ]7 c 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。, P' L$ u( s D# ~! z: t6 Y) }
+ T! G9 y( o$ @2 U; J0 p$ ?9 Z 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。6 w, ^0 M) z; N, e7 Y
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 y/ }. A6 M2 v( x5 I6 m: T( K3 g! `
: V; z- h2 M$ A. e+ f! U6 Y& QBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 T/ E" N7 M2 ?, ~& \+ C+ H) m& K& ^3 K5 C) m
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 i* z( e4 Y- Z) f! c$ w
* L) M& a" p2 S! hLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % `1 }/ K5 [) S' @! j9 o, t% G" Z0 d- w7 e J9 }8 a: b
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) @5 w0 [) @( @; P: [3 A& z3 N
! E, @' K0 j0 n/ H# B8 v) z- } J) d6 |+ DRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. + o2 D( }+ H$ U3 }0 N1 A. ]2 X
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ Y( @1 B( [9 A5 K8 z# a! ^1 o2 F3 ] 5 \% \6 W, Q$ g$ @0 B2 X$ kThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 t" X8 X! c! ]6 R' |# L q+ H/ L
! s( @. M. q5 ^" v0 }"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % R$ x$ o6 _. ?' h) W * E4 T9 c# ]$ u: }In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 L% G( h3 z3 x u
5 e1 Z. ?' W' K1 z( U% g4 T5 MGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 w2 r" n4 \, f8 o& N W4 ^! ^/ V8 s+ O3 c" L D
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 9 O c) ]$ C1 c" J1 ~6 F4 \" p
: u5 x( s- X) f& \- PUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " ~- J' T8 t, r- I# r* U5 p* O. l
2 V* E' z% R" `+ Y! D% ^China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % J+ I) B" X0 r* O. y1 J
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % o) Y6 ?* b0 G$ d8 D" y
4 h0 ?- F4 U2 P6 o* l- ^( hInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : }* c8 V" ]+ ?: d3 |
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' X4 R/ R% q$ @8 p$ Z1 y
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # `; d" U% o. ^& U/ p' T0 F$ F4 b( f8 s. a5 g
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
