3 i# w- G3 A4 t8 fRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, l( B" S& P/ ^4 M1 ]4 ]
6 {; z6 }6 j, L# h' Q- k1 i+ ~BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * X( f3 K, x. S: k& f - C6 v, P, x dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 6 B$ r; b9 |8 n7 r/ F" Y3 z8 h% `: W
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! O5 J* n8 r: V0 @
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 i) C+ }" F, B9 W' h s1 T
% }7 H" T* T- h* D) WRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 f8 A4 G0 w* M; l+ Y5 X
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ [) F2 M* r! ~% N & v# I+ O1 N2 c5 z. ^& I J8 NThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 r1 d; E3 p% D9 H9 i8 p
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 ~8 K3 p* w0 w* _; p. g; @7 G7 z3 R% r1 n
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' x- M, T& x" Q
; b* S1 w0 O* k' RGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ a6 w# B3 A+ T" A
2 l* S1 D8 H" Q; V0 h u5 g8 ~That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. V5 v7 f" q9 u6 S9 T
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 \8 W( t/ L5 B" q1 ^: L V B
1 f+ \' w% V+ }" X4 ]/ j( }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : c, ~! X1 \8 k; Z; l, M
9 @ M4 s/ P* ^7 a& |* cIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ M. F. i! m# \9 J0 [; b" E- R
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : E! R# ?+ ]* J% H- V2 l8 p
- i! g! o1 o/ j"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % H! L( U% k' T* z" j( j 1 h# G( Y$ T6 w$ R6 iGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' m; S; r1 e2 X. R& l% i* v; x1 r9 O5 Y, y
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
