外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 - A& y* V' ?/ @2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞( B. E8 r0 j# _7 K' t7 F+ n
9 ~* C8 O1 h* \7 z+ w9 \ # w& I7 B, A: ?5 R/ A8 `6 O中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。4 t. n% }' H6 [
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 S' @; `& E2 o7 q& z7 m( v) `0 v# g, a' v- A/ ^5 L) G
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 : w" _$ j) `( j1 J1 W. g' s% ]# j5 j+ j# @
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。. o7 s, I7 ]1 [% Y$ o
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 x- a3 h8 [/ y 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 o& W/ i6 z6 w2 x9 |5 H ( a# q& J0 y4 w% e! j 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ' C) f3 @: }& z1 r5 S* N% ^) R: t) a% X9 ?3 Z; R% B （责任编辑：杨海洋） * r+ ?" l. N0 O8 \! Q+ y1 N3 x 3 C' F' z8 u0 ]9 U+ D4 KRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters " G6 C7 j1 {" L* y: l - f9 k) O ~2 u+ b2 B! B# FBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & U* [/ B8 v; C$ N
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ?" P+ O1 A/ @3 t/ Q$ `$ v6 ^0 z5 a
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / M9 m+ y/ x/ }( k* Z6 \$ F & ~! Y0 T, H* O4 L. KAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! T: u8 Q" v: w" [. f% e/ Y: L
- a) |/ ^% Q1 |3 h2 E. L, M, ORoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. f/ k6 p3 _3 C9 Z' Z
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / n- d9 n9 @' J- U: j" \3 B
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) k; g. l' j8 ]0 x2 k9 R
. s. t C4 a- M"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . M$ k0 z8 R3 H8 @# P
, I7 H6 |8 ^( k1 L8 b! b' ?9 j6 A2 q* `In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * p Z" b2 R" m' n& w! n* @% P. h3 ^6 Y7 t9 Z
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ f, Q% }9 [+ U8 l, h% G, M1 x# |# @3 A! v, e0 ?6 A' }' {
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. V- a; o9 z: q8 W! e3 I+ i7 B1 d2 t, c" v3 N9 ]. }
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 a# c8 W4 F* z3 t+ b) M % v$ l5 P1 @6 Y+ i7 fChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " y% `7 G8 m% z: O8 a1 \; W; S ' O* k* i2 \8 O4 iIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! H, G6 q4 M9 F' ?8 {" r t- K
9 U6 n) f. B9 e" R" k0 E' qInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * W" n& i6 v9 S. F+ }1 k+ D2 X" U( d0 D! y9 i8 ^- c
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; Y% w7 [ \+ s( M, g4 s
/ t0 W( h+ ?# NGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 Z8 K+ `, O; z) a0 l
3 T2 [; g. y) w bThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
