% F S: r3 q" f1 y9 m 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。6 P6 X) X# k/ M& I+ I; K% @
7 H: V) E9 Y, ~ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。% g# b) p4 A; X/ s |* ^
8 o7 Q8 y3 n* S- ]8 o4 z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。6 [& F. G: X' q: c9 s6 E; y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 / _& N3 C6 Q+ K0 a; Z) [8 D! i3 H3 S1 k% d! t* D
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。, e V5 Q1 t7 o7 D
1 J3 l) U" |# n6 b l) r+ h, F（责任编辑：杨海洋）/ e" H3 _4 q" t+ b/ Z6 i `
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" q4 f+ V0 M, ^+ `
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : h( D6 J- E8 b& K4 R
?1 X* [8 \! b- B$ ?A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 7 z7 l( v; F* q& b- s- U5 } l1 K
$ L" A$ N5 e. CLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 3 i* q: R3 A) W! b. ?6 A( X4 s5 `5 _/ \, M6 a% H: ?
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * u$ X( P9 B6 l8 q+ f# o- n
2 t/ d) K5 T' z, U6 d+ L' B2 ^1 v4 TRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 f. H* q! q i; J' h# k# `: \& b! \' H* `. |/ {9 A* [6 f
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( h& n2 p& T& N# d ; v; c8 {) ]& H6 pThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . D% G+ f/ m3 Q/ e6 w& ^
H3 |* K4 T1 w2 {; H"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) I: _0 U1 L3 a5 h
" e* f& q3 t, d' M7 vIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " b" j7 _8 r! h2 X- L# K2 P0 C + d5 _& p0 h* P+ \2 WGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. b7 X* t$ t B8 j5 C+ H
4 L5 g$ ` ]5 i- d& ~1 F7 eThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % N' {/ D4 k; l# }1 M# ] 1 c1 X: L0 [( f+ h+ t% h+ Q3 ]Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ' H0 `4 D) y( h: _) S4 T6 s$ x2 Q) O O& x' J
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 U# [% F; q- L% q8 _
7 g1 s0 m" d' Q- J2 m# kIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 h; ?+ z* B& u 4 Y( w1 B4 {# q) T0 Q& k. iInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * }" Z( @0 }5 n2 o
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 _2 V8 X- q( T- z - j& S) t( l- N& I) Z, lGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % b2 ]( D6 F6 y7 i, {: X
/ U$ W, G+ m, u' aThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
