2 I1 ?* E2 A5 F/ t8 A# G 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % J% U9 ^- r$ ^; T 1 T1 ^7 x* Z; C4 S. N3 K6 N. x 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 $ D- @' O _' t2 O$ w7 m8 X L- O) k+ s. J9 t
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。6 Z# Q1 r1 o: h
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 - q1 }" y; x+ G( t 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : y. v0 M I, I z; t( M. f2 y4 s" m0 |/ i* G) B
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / m- C& v' J+ _: z) \9 O/ p" L 3 ]( H4 q6 f8 Q9 Y9 ?* L（责任编辑：杨海洋） . s$ v' m3 y' ]1 |" L5 ~ 3 u# l& z# R4 X [( u4 D& [Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters+ p- \9 M: J% Q" |
; ~& S# a0 W; v5 J5 x( G7 N I4 RBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) z; N: I% ^& ?+ l
6 k5 A& L, E& e+ wA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " s% n& C8 g) [ d, I4 ~ & a# l# j; s U. FLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 K# @7 X4 S+ ~% z" X* T! l. v9 Q: z, e1 m1 |% l5 I# s
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; T8 f% {$ d; X8 B2 H; ^, p- ]3 K
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 7 h0 J4 A% {' P' h k
2 D9 [9 h% t7 Q; l+ `/ PFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : L0 F2 W7 i* O: p9 O
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. + [( C* f2 t; j, }9 q+ e" P( z/ u' X1 w! |2 S
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 \- e% G+ R+ o3 q# S
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 x8 E/ @, y9 x* z: b, a- d
( m% R1 `- M- ~9 jGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - n7 J. G+ _3 A2 C4 K$ _8 r/ j% @/ t# d* b! \5 |8 v& N) C
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( {# Y8 q! ~* K* R8 ]3 @# c4 b$ [9 ]% d6 V8 F. |' Y
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! @6 S7 \) ]- v7 C* N/ a; _9 S( ?
; A: ]7 Z% h! ]; @ Z3 `6 I+ ~China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; m( m7 L8 E$ F0 f
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ; V7 h4 g4 o, N0 B, h
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : a- g1 u' p7 n5 d 7 c" m: z5 z8 {6 J: x"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 ] W7 v$ B- X# R
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 l# U7 w6 a* R; T2 h3 e( [# a
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
