7 X' a2 K$ z! I( } 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 6 r3 i7 U/ D5 a2 Z8 M1 M& H" f& \, d/ A6 a* f1 t0 Y" S
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 a5 T. H' s! ?) V' ~" X$ c ) J8 {& }3 B3 w0 y ?! @) o 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # n2 I# ^ k2 y3 J' e* N# o+ J7 F0 ^4 v: d$ B/ d2 f
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。8 G" T% N; |2 V9 S
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 n: o' [( k9 K: y
, i* r9 F& T [5 l) s# P 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 J$ ]; Y5 E$ E) x4 u) h& Y6 I# @! }( u& T （责任编辑：杨海洋）/ ]* t: ?/ b' V3 V+ }' ~# n
: C- {8 l) d' |0 ~Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 5 T/ c% s; j/ f3 v* i- P5 d/ G1 @8 ~* p1 V9 I9 k
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * k. X" u6 z3 T r) N
# ?# }7 N$ }; ]6 QA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ' g. \, C# W4 `+ i+ d0 q
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : e5 }7 g" P5 T' ?) i2 r ; U; G; ~. `) BAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 n5 J8 S. P7 ?1 d: R9 m9 `9 V1 B$ O; h9 D, N
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 3 l9 E! w4 T% M ; c9 P3 b) d( i& s+ S+ c% UFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # s$ Z4 H( R/ v, u. y& H
?$ J5 k) g( F& O* fThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 G5 v% n2 _ D- L: I
0 \2 R0 T, s% u' }# C"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( Q+ {: ]* U/ n7 h2 K% s# W; b
/ K# |3 E9 {3 Y1 f6 j( i7 N; q& sIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) P$ O* q8 |6 m" m
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( k' j5 E) k5 F% f2 z
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % g: Q+ v4 z( U# ~: D! {- f
' q$ |* r5 V S) k# V+ m: d3 mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ; r& m. D6 V" a/ y8 I+ _' v
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( D0 T. d5 U0 `7 q ! X5 `4 \* `" N: F8 FIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) i/ |% d6 Q) ]' M
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , O9 S3 F2 g( W" S+ \. Z& Z8 V1 D; ^' h
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % c3 z0 Y. P+ V9 p, |3 a
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. $ v5 Q5 s) D( h1 N6 T) ] {3 t: n* o, H$ ?5 S
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
