外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 T) F0 {0 K: X9 K' P
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞3 a& F) m# u Q% v, _
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。) l+ W, ^6 E) @+ L$ j3 a, b
4 I1 ~9 m0 ^ h, G- O- U, c; t% F: g 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- e9 Y% [% ~8 T1 M
6 p9 h' Q1 V% b7 A 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 # p. [% O7 O1 Y" I. S( D5 k8 `+ S6 ^& w8 u% q- {4 ], ]
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 9 r4 ^$ M3 q- I, x' @) |& a3 B* g$ H) V8 ]6 M) Z, R+ S1 [. P5 q U0 z8 `
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! u" D S4 ]) ]7 s8 L
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( Q( Z) S0 c( f% R6 L4 q0 v! H
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " @. k; y# y9 Y& S$ v+ F; v$ _9 y' ^1 X+ h+ O+ G （责任编辑：杨海洋）8 w. R9 D# O! v4 M) `' U
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 R$ c2 f3 x/ J3 U) G1 k$ i8 U9 c) T5 Z) I! ` e
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. , U# H* E% V$ M- y4 A
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " L) T1 ~% s! D' q# K9 ^4 _6 A. y
) j `0 v; I ^9 |) P6 \4 T X1 rLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - s% l3 K( M, b$ |2 G
, Q2 G& T. O1 U j7 MAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' L% |& O; C1 g2 F2 K2 G& R
' p1 t+ `) i0 ^1 T" R, w1 h, r7 [5 k$ tRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % [ b6 B% H7 ]
7 Z8 Q% F; `, s' l; D p9 G, P0 _First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - z5 ^8 `1 A2 G K 6 k1 K# ~) `" A* z) n7 oThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ u h# M5 S b/ O6 c) M7 [! D, C7 U1 \4 m1 C3 q
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * a' W! Y& U7 |( B! o2 ^- j( h) v2 f% Y
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 }- |. f3 p' \$ B; k3 M' E' h, m' o2 z9 ?- P* M
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. # c3 m4 H1 D* K: Q. X
* {4 _) M2 o' s+ zThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / p; v6 B3 c7 N& h8 V! l # z' Z$ j1 x* K* K5 A* wUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 g0 s7 D! a' q7 l+ |, T- Q
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . Y2 B2 w0 `# e$ G5 X( a8 p& X5 B1 l2 `8 v
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 j1 c, [. ]+ B* b6 l" M
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 m$ _! e- S. R w
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 y) G, `- O* @' I8 I1 J
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( u+ ?) ~0 v- p* m6 l! {, Z 7 o4 ^9 ~( ]; b1 p# _Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
