8 T o. u6 B7 \+ O/ ` 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。! ^! Z4 J2 b) j
8 X A+ H# q! C [% h# E 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 7 L ~8 M- T: Q - ^0 W2 m+ C- S) }% J) D 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 . I- y/ M* w1 ^ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 O' U+ h5 ]) u3 c
% A) E& ~- }* l& p 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 7 I) n& j3 L5 B+ }; M- l4 a) W/ E; ]! b# I （责任编辑：杨海洋） % i1 ?. m8 X X+ l; p. ] 8 E) ^ r V$ F) o0 [Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ( H" a5 s1 n- E2 B- D: Y- D/ B# ?8 q2 |! X0 Z. n
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; `6 s0 F; P2 @. Y( E4 K; [ ) p5 P! k2 w4 D6 z$ q! N/ k, SA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ m2 L' G/ M* [2 ~! C
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 n! |) |; L& F: L, a( ?- J5 T. I3 i+ i
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; _& T' ?5 d5 n" H! A+ X2 P
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( |' d9 c/ T* Q7 o$ T2 B4 {- o/ u' @! \: s- M8 T: U8 O2 F; k, D
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # N: c; `+ B" p( V2 U& Q/ Q# d5 I& b8 M
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 S# ^' r* O2 m! S2 e$ a0 C3 [' d8 q. Q! G( Z3 w1 W, B9 V; t
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 ^. @# k6 g+ ~9 ` R
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; g) G/ Z* S; S' B9 q
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & p: U( X) n/ W1 k: Y2 F: o/ X
6 q7 D, j& g# n: sThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) M7 f" v* L1 s
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! a; n1 x n* ]! H
0 _" y% F+ |7 V1 a1 mChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " F) b8 V5 B: V& ]1 N
8 |# ]2 L0 V: k& @If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 K3 q% E K6 \$ J4 A3 w w; s, m3 P
4 i, e L& U8 t) C0 D4 e/ X/ nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % x6 a3 R5 T# ~! d 5 j& H( z* w+ Z+ f6 _% M3 C! P"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % c, q3 A& u( S0 w! A, h
" t9 N( v9 `, Y) W/ I' PGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 7 N4 ^& a8 | U1 x+ {
* Q: n7 K6 Z/ s; t3 c! Z9 wThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
