外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, }, W3 ]- y& \7 U
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 - b' C& P& U9 R- |6 ?' y 1 i/ A; M$ P8 ^: Z& e& F ~" I ( G/ I5 Y& D! p; W" \
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。. y* B% ^+ A- W4 {# b
0 m P1 B: l# h# i" w 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。% G" [' F5 q m, i$ i
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 0 T3 t7 ]. E; F; H4 ]1 D' d! ^. \/ H: C. n3 [! l9 \/ P" W
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 3 i$ f- u2 M' v7 E ; X) |# [+ T4 M/ A: `+ C p4 r/ C& Z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。0 Z& M2 |' s0 K2 e* Y0 m
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 . q1 k" O# W/ w% \0 {! L. N O! K# `
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。, w! e# H- x7 u5 a0 m9 Z* @
& V7 c/ {7 c/ Z （责任编辑：杨海洋） 9 M. D0 f+ T0 D4 w# B3 \ ' d' h. t: h# H& E6 i2 dRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 6 Q4 t& U' E$ r+ J1 c' |5 y 6 ]6 f8 [4 |" z6 ]4 e. W. ZBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " o- p2 t+ Z0 b+ p6 o: L( E6 O. N. H
! D) \% q3 U1 Z+ q% aA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! p2 V* R9 H/ \ ?/ B9 [9 ^1 P ' b2 m: {1 u7 Z7 c% [) SLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 K- B1 i; G2 P# J. a; Y
/ X- H7 J8 `1 E1 S+ KAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 @3 P5 L( w" \4 O9 U% w2 T# j
) T- E" d% X0 N/ u: G* hRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . I- D8 |. a& s4 `' q$ r: G . ]8 w/ q2 i, A( pFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! E J7 u& ]( e2 P/ h* N n6 e
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( l! s0 ?" w3 `# y, y % F* [! z2 C0 c) ~9 }"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 N1 ^ n6 A7 m* D& D+ G" n% E" }; p( U& d; \
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. x2 U. M+ C. N* ?
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ W4 `& V L& p2 v, [) I ^9 C4 R' x" f( Q8 q: D
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . `8 m4 a3 _/ X; E6 V8 x
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 L+ i# l. K |, U0 C
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". H! ], @& g9 J* b N
% u7 @+ B! e' g/ P3 b! X7 l! yIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + F( q1 q9 j4 z4 v% u2 r
' w3 ]: W+ n+ q+ _8 D# b' [International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 |: _( N6 a% l1 U9 V# ]
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 }1 Q2 n8 f) |( T$ g3 O/ L# ~4 }: d+ O* N" B
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & w* g( T4 n5 }9 Q# Y# n( s
