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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 # v5 B6 @0 L5 b0 J9 w9 h3 i( s 0 w5 j( e* s0 @2 t: i9 D2 [8 s 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。3 Z+ a5 j0 y/ a" l
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。8 `" ?7 V& g, P, R6 \; i c. f, q
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。4 d/ D1 r( y/ Y$ G8 A$ _+ H
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。# Z& D) o9 u4 ]/ L
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - X/ y, z. D, v ' ^: G- t, w( T& n 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。6 j0 V+ b9 g( [" s3 s7 I7 ^6 a$ s
4 T2 ^- l+ U3 n2 D8 O9 z( A- \0 F1 F（责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 @9 ]# t2 e* B" A2 l# E8 K8 N+ R; X" }+ C
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" P! a l3 @! T: M4 k7 l# k
6 X3 K3 U: w! j$ b. e' nBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : k# G, {- r/ V3 K0 _+ b
' i8 c+ }) M2 E# _A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : v9 v1 k7 R- K& v: I
" [( }: D( s( k3 {5 e7 FLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : a" i: L* z1 O: ^( j
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * D, U' V% j1 P, {* [! ~ q2 b ( @% l C3 w9 W/ M4 i7 w! H/ V8 TRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , u. f& _8 @# N0 o6 E! N ; X$ s6 B9 x+ Q% }First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ ^: _; g4 U( h2 N k6 N' t) U/ x) L8 g8 J
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 Y. C. R9 m1 R+ |" I0 k! R; Q5 H3 B: P3 ~" W8 Y, e
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % N: f. \5 M% B" M; E
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( B7 A" Y. `+ \: ~$ F2 P8 t/ m + O# V) x0 }5 O: E l# ?Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 V. f( g) k2 r% l0 w 8 o' x$ o/ e% ]6 ~$ p nThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 ~+ }9 K% S) q* a' d# u/ i5 c9 Q6 @# T9 c3 Q6 f0 P# H. e$ t9 o
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) \4 p8 |4 s# Z/ v, h w) k/ R - m3 g. a" l3 A# oChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ n1 j \# @# D4 N
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! Y/ @% m1 A$ h" R; r7 [ . k0 E2 \8 [6 [. Z1 A2 P# VInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & ^( `; q" l* R * _, n: p5 A0 N" j- B P"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 n' @1 d7 O0 K$ B1 `. u: h/ ^' h3 g3 A- @; s+ ?) B/ t- |
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 K5 T g3 e- H' p + i* p n3 _ K8 @ d6 T! @! zThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
