2 V! q! _# a5 U4 F; K4 x , Q: }- n2 |" v- q I# A t中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 y- F' X5 S& L& T) u0 W) `4 b5 U
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。# V1 t4 h& z! Z4 O( N
. n4 M5 S: t2 Z( d0 I" y 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ?- b9 j& g! ?! C% Q# i ' z3 F1 m% k/ s" p 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 u- A1 ? C- @ L6 U" b: B5 u2 [7 [" f 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。. H7 {, T4 K1 I1 \3 c4 ~/ ~' H
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : m- R5 b8 C2 N1 D( n0 F8 h- v% P# H- z3 i
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 h& I# O, e+ s : a/ ]% l p# T" g; [（责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 e& {+ d O. h2 H, J; t' P0 b }( U( `# Z4 p# f) r
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters2 O H8 L: N+ n" N
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 7 P- {, }) `( z
4 X- F! }( H! c# _: {$ P9 h+ |/ a5 L7 EA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * T# a) G. i. L8 i1 M- b1 \" u0 l. J$ w1 [$ B. G( J9 B% C
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 y7 ^" ~9 o" z$ Y0 A9 R5 O
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' k0 L1 H& q7 F& P( W6 m3 ?' \, b) l: w' L! X+ @7 E
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 c. W$ ]1 o+ l. b2 @$ A A9 R" u6 A a. `First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 M) @$ w, O$ M2 W _
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ A5 U$ w/ t+ ~3 G: D& I0 W3 ^+ I# Q: V# n( [
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( w6 f5 @* S! r: H8 {
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ }. @0 K& O+ V/ { ) y. n: c4 J5 B9 D: l- V+ k$ r! TGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + X3 v( d: @ |2 y Z" r& C2 J 3 E+ r/ q# X' N, P. l% xThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 r$ t; W9 \ A$ D
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 M* [8 G. U* b) @
3 g: Z# R2 u4 e3 \2 a% e( m. {5 Q" GChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". " Q7 g' L L! M# i/ p. u
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ H A4 _! G$ c% D. {0 H% G! E1 F! N- j- M9 }. G6 c
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 Y1 H& B$ m- z$ j1 \8 j
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' y8 B- ~/ M) S/ y9 _5 j* q
' V6 f" ^4 k4 Z8 p+ l8 {* Y! GGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 |4 P. }6 g1 _+ w' D v7 d' s8 w7 s
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
