外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年6 Q; @7 a1 B2 V
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 2 B% z6 j6 p# Y& A 4 R- P6 Z: R/ d4 F% h7 d 8 H c1 h4 M3 W) E( N1 X8 z& w: c* P
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 0 G6 _4 t9 R( C, y J4 |% z( a/ V1 M' D; s) C( v6 e0 V
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。; m, d! K: ?$ o, ^. c4 O5 n
9 q/ U7 B9 Z8 [) Z 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 & t9 o: N% c! x2 R 1 T( l8 M2 t' J" }' [' U% |/ D 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。" w& [% o5 T+ H; i: x
1 o1 R F$ n0 W, \( ~
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 2 P; r" G$ y0 } v% ?! Y& L" G. A6 u! { 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + O, n- k: H$ O7 S7 n8 k# I, v% F ]7 {* m% V" | 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。$ J7 M; m/ j, i( v3 {
+ R! r" V) F" h1 i* P8 [（责任编辑：杨海洋） 5 J) L3 `; Y7 | 8 Z5 R5 V4 \9 S; v5 y" CRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 6 J2 X- e v' ~+ R9 Q- F( B4 w/ j 4 u b: ~+ F( dBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ F2 U- f: T. m( \6 n2 b" ^3 I( m * C! u2 S# I5 X9 rA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. # c$ A- k; q8 A( d5 o" R0 h+ e3 Y% s2 x
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. % ?. W3 z3 W- {' u . c7 u+ a% T& K7 bAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; Q' r+ A* t+ w: [8 ]! C# B7 h8 ^( B; V0 q
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & u. I* \9 q/ S# u' _0 P O9 t/ q' E, ` w: U5 E7 EFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 x7 p: [. k" ^. R% b# Z5 B" i( U7 }& @! _
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' w; G) [: [( y; D- M, j) w) x/ V; g! I3 C9 O0 r
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , ~$ Q$ G+ M% `; t a( l" i% @' a1 X l" v: q) Y" S# j" b
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 ]" L5 ~) b7 g ; t( ^7 a# D" Q& |5 }5 g0 vGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 l9 @' e: d3 n9 @4 x9 y7 Q. T$ b) p; q1 E. R- _
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 a4 |$ w" l; ^4 J9 l* [9 e6 V& O ; G* S, C% [0 o; }% }" }Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ; x! c# x3 ?( X, d2 I, v
% P& h' p' e: S4 h$ C" V% \China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! `4 ^' F1 f6 k! N q: r+ u2 ^. b1 M0 u L- M: g& j7 L
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. h1 J8 \8 p- ]
3 ?+ }; U: p! I7 d4 [$ E' t# H! MInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 y' L2 {! \2 F3 S" o% z0 Z, a C* i# R) V3 A" M
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & a& h) B9 d0 r G6 X5 Q 2 @, ^0 I9 l4 P# t2 @; o% s2 eGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 t2 S$ @. g4 y$ h3 E
7 U( v4 {9 C8 w) \
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
