外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年- P3 B( l2 N) W A9 k# }
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ) @! p A- d& Y' B 7 e3 Y' J# i& D; ]2 [% P 3 H4 ?6 j% |4 o
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 % {5 i+ F6 w; t. t1 i* s+ s, G8 k1 n$ |! Q4 b2 _8 g
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。% a4 O: }) N3 g1 P3 A/ F( H
3 ]5 V4 O+ I2 `$ J J; @' O9 x; B: \ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 7 k& h" P1 f) K# A! H# }2 D+ O e# @. R8 u3 H9 l/ a. k, d/ B
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 U. N8 u& l2 O+ c' `+ R6 D6 c( R! I' b2 p
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。( X4 I; j1 }2 r: @; I; U/ k) v
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。+ V* l7 L# E7 G% x6 U, i
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。: Z2 M! S! Y$ Q9 x
( c9 t+ _- m! g0 w（责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 L2 B: p5 x/ P& [1 _$ @7 l/ c F2 ~: y+ m- f3 z9 @
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 G1 Y$ k3 F' m: E) e) O& x
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & G3 z) T& ?. h; V0 V- u
) [- _1 N* ]. EA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & u/ \; I, `0 Z4 }; @( i" F" q( s+ n
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 p/ \* o0 G' T# E4 [1 D) \
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 L9 w& T6 h n9 g8 k) t/ C/ T) ]
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 W3 B3 i5 g# C: [7 a8 q* \* @! ]" C/ o( V% f
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 j( D7 V1 p& s& ^5 h ' M" k4 t) C6 X% \5 ~6 o5 |8 p- g* mThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( y1 G q# W& U* Y! N - o( b$ M3 v5 W8 i: Q"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( k# J' {& t7 a u; X: E' M + ~' k" N' ?: M1 `7 RIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & O2 N7 y: L6 I1 A6 T" t3 c
$ g6 o+ v1 Z: _Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; L0 H+ A+ _) o6 f8 X1 G# M/ h$ Y+ C" y, t
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / x6 S2 z* _- ~ $ @& Y* y. A- ?2 g" cUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - Z' D% a9 x7 K0 r+ k! M* Z0 B
, n7 d# [1 r% a. o) XChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - X- W8 j6 J9 S. }5 Q" t+ v; g5 O8 {% G' a
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 Y& _. ~& h5 ^ - C$ u, L. G! }2 l4 x! t& IInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : F3 d0 Q9 A% ?+ B+ q. S+ d( s% R
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 }& ?/ S8 {* j+ ~2 M' v6 r' h7 X& t5 I B* y' r
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : t, b3 N9 h, p& u4 J v) p$ U1 u2 A
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
