外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 & q0 d3 @3 [3 c, ~! x, N2 R2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞$ {! s. l; Z8 Y8 P8 v, w. x+ n
8 R! A: s: h. j$ B# d - k, H5 y+ {( ?- Y! L* |7 z
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。/ ^/ [! a5 B: M7 S
. ?- o' x) J# f; i/ @3 b
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ) i5 |7 N* G8 g' h0 _7 v+ n% P4 D
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 s# U& m W) V0 p1 b( P" b8 r) k0 Q& ~) e% n
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。+ A F8 f4 X. h8 K" P" u
5 v% Z7 D a+ a+ m* d) \: n9 `
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。: L# \: d e8 l: h
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。- O1 t) T# M; Z
2 b) M9 w, x/ D+ a, |
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 : M6 {0 D! q. A. u: @' s/ X4 L' V; F7 X' z （责任编辑：杨海洋） & f7 J& b! U; u [# k0 C! m4 F) I! G- y* z/ Z t
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters - ^( o# p* y- Z/ N5 N9 Q6 G8 T) B
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 D6 L4 g5 U. I6 i$ t+ n) H
/ B9 j( \4 i1 Z2 A! qA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & [' P$ h0 w1 z$ b1 ~6 A& h
7 y: X3 ]2 x( q8 [% d3 @8 RLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 Z1 k Y4 v9 F0 W: A; n3 a6 H* P ' I2 o4 T$ Q) mAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ O. J0 ?/ P! A( P' g$ d" m# f+ N
: e A! s$ [& B6 g+ k0 bRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( s+ I9 s0 S K 7 K( ^: a8 v: g- \. XFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 j1 A& r6 `4 Y( L+ U9 s% I) F
; ~# Z# y2 a o# @- `8 L j
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * r; w7 I# [1 m, I& a$ G. n6 i" `
0 S y/ ~" P( q6 U( r* b3 V2 k
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & Y3 j6 g& p" X( Z! Y! T 0 d* N$ d1 O9 s/ S% g8 t) q3 R' r; AIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. l l! J5 e" O, D8 V
* r5 {1 s* S: `% h. B! I% b
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - F0 u- U6 P' r5 J% Z 9 p6 K# F8 {% ]# X* IThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / O5 Q2 T4 @) A) q a# `9 J1 X8 e
, [0 M, X9 }: x8 i1 o) s! T5 X! D/ |9 @
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ Z/ N0 E* b" a0 M
# y6 a- R7 m8 \
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 r$ m8 V0 c0 }( ~4 n' g' H , X9 P. Z% D _# y) L! @If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 p0 a5 o. I6 Q$ e. B; G ! C; H$ z" u6 JInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 q9 ?) ^" l1 t. c: m. w( l8 z& u1 D6 R, H$ t/ m
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. * A4 `( Q4 K6 R7 `) s# l5 } - q( y2 L6 V4 [& tGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # I: U* g5 u, `) z* Q
