, Q* M; \- I6 {中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ( N4 t0 [9 E# `! J4 ~! Y7 H , A6 Y: d$ d" H! a1 D 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。5 t, s0 q+ o; e' Z' Y* p' n
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 , m. y$ D. j) _6 v; u7 S$ n% ?: s+ p7 I2 H& x1 ^% ]$ o
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' ]; s7 W5 i) }' Q* o, l # d! z+ w! d, P3 w5 e 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。8 E3 E P+ C9 N2 H2 U% \2 n. ?
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 G* C8 m3 W+ o2 `) H3 L: F% ]; [0 i. n9 n( |
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' r$ H @5 H& L. Y- Y
! X& ?8 d6 c: U3 ]0 O: |* G, p% F2 S （责任编辑：杨海洋） & @# [/ _3 k+ {$ Q$ J% D # W+ w) }( F" n' U. x, dRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters - _7 h0 s& u# J. W6 u% z* v; j8 G1 `5 {/ |; Q1 O3 P
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * p( v. |) o1 R* U
. {3 T( w0 G% f, O W3 {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! W% l& s l+ |5 F0 ?
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & S) {$ t* n# `( L' _: _
: K/ J7 W4 t+ ?( p! [0 Y9 s+ ]After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 C- ^, m' p2 o. r0 j : C. q n# o, l' U9 H) XRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 w2 l3 P6 K+ k: z) l- s % m: g6 Z) U. R" {8 R" I5 P8 E% dFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) z: {6 ~3 J) q0 l! D
7 N- h4 \5 T6 Y1 ]2 @1 K5 AThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 d7 y( y" r' ^
! J% D! `2 L* @"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) N7 G0 {& Q( h% l# s; q$ y
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . b0 }) Y p% C# W: a6 S 0 p% p8 {2 Z! E' K: a1 G! ^+ g3 QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' g8 H) w% P2 L$ C) ~, d" C ) }& \' Z/ n9 u/ r* m( F* X8 AThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , t& P; T0 r# w0 \0 u7 O# Q
' r1 R: b6 D' P" p! C- W* GUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 _: W) P& B/ N" ] U
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & @) X% d2 t# u3 y) |- B1 v* c
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' T2 u p! b G5 W1 B% l$ V6 z9 }2 A8 f$ T4 f* _% v
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; i# T! a4 F+ G9 ~! [8 m
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 k3 ^1 @' [/ ^: H
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 h0 I/ b6 S \, d7 D# I7 e4 p0 X. z) b/ K9 l- b8 q; `% B% x$ k
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
