/ j2 T5 o3 v$ E; S 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 3 |" ?+ R6 x! w Z) H! t % n6 n o- r3 _ k2 y 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ; |0 ~& I# B' D + X$ s- _$ T; C& T 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 , C' M' J0 q5 S1 e- x1 B+ M % Z2 I- Q q7 [$ Z7 y1 C+ ^ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 8 `+ A4 Y+ h$ R" |( t6 ^0 x- c 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 1 ?( t7 p) V$ L7 R4 [# |! \ U f0 Q4 v3 _
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ X- b6 F6 w6 a ~- |* |. R
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# ^ v1 e/ n0 M; PRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 H6 O/ q. M! L! T( Y, ], }2 @! M O3 u: e B" E' N( H: K+ M3 f
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # j, L, j+ ~4 c, L- k 8 E N$ ]) L! }5 ?9 @$ D" pA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ; |7 ^; `0 c, G: b5 }1 U6 C& A1 a& W/ W; D% H* W
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) ^3 R4 v5 ]1 w 8 f2 E3 K8 d( K; c9 nAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 S' z& q4 e3 |* v: f* q ^# E+ ~: t, f' l* e7 b- aRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * Q* Y m, I' X! `( O( S4 s 8 u8 N" c. d: R8 jFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / a R8 d# ^+ s- ]4 n1 ~- W4 X% Q
; S3 I, j6 Q; I+ R2 {This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ; B/ N. ]) g1 @* [9 B: D
. k# c0 [9 [# K1 N, e"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 l3 {% j, s4 l$ D( u7 y) g
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 @; Y8 u& X# H. I 0 Z/ }1 K- m$ _5 e qGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! J0 D) N' n# Q Z
: D& F' }: u0 t) n: d+ \That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 Q7 n0 L$ ]& _- m9 t
+ Q3 K {, w& v" i, E- Q \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ( }( d* k! `9 B. H' y- B : W( D) q1 V% j& _! c8 o0 T$ eChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 j8 s3 |+ V! p. P& N# m( z+ P7 Q5 m/ a6 i9 k
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 u6 D8 \6 B9 O, E& s8 G0 d' [# j; G. k
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + R, j' K* [2 M# _/ f" k 0 O( G- C9 p- D# @3 _' r"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 K5 H" A- G, }7 D7 D
I$ [4 L3 u; v AGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 ^7 A9 g S0 U" ]! Q
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
