外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ! t0 y- |, D+ K6 M5 P4 `2 _2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 0 E( o& Y& h( ^ @5 U1 C E # N) \# C0 c) f' a2 x8 M ) s% ?4 F" q' m) @
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。& z: o! l% N! D! Y
* Z$ }( q8 Z& d5 H8 }8 m 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。1 Y0 k5 S' ]" L. Z( J, A* Z/ t
( M6 T: N) V+ Q: m: O" [( l 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 I. x2 \' v! C3 t
- n3 s$ S) V) h! i2 u! S) x( l0 ~& ?# @7 E 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 - `& r! E N. r6 G5 g: r5 E' o0 i& e3 z+ g4 M( C, @9 }7 A
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。/ M- z( I/ S+ u) g. i6 r
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。9 o) D5 _, t5 P( ^& t5 Y
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! S# n s) Z- p1 c3 J4 [& n1 ?& P4 p' L
! `+ g: w5 N/ V; r （责任编辑：杨海洋） 5 @1 X* q0 W' C4 m6 L+ b1 j0 K8 z2 @ [- }; J$ D, ~# O% y
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters" F7 r) H. ~8 @0 B s1 R+ ~+ j
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % [' p, X% I) I# k0 ^. i
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! L* o& c) W: p" l+ |! Z 9 _ j4 V/ W: gLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / \. ^: z3 J8 g' [( _: J9 Y: V" B! L3 T8 M
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 j) J+ \# e; B: I- G: ~ P7 q% L6 O0 D; w
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & h, `% i* O. [9 A1 h: |; X1 u
: S: h7 D1 G# t6 j# TFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 p* j0 k' u( B5 h: }! K% F8 `8 D " F/ f/ `3 |% `: C/ [5 mThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. I. M" l I; I9 } 7 O/ o& _% B& c( q9 \"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. W) `# a \$ G
% Y* I+ W, m- Z0 ?9 @- B& x. AIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 H5 O' i* E: t2 L0 V0 J* g% q) n, K* Z+ [& M4 e: A, f+ A
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 D4 s. l. _1 r+ `
/ D6 }0 D' J* V j3 [ {. k2 pThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. " Y* g% y5 g# j% n9 g 2 q# `9 Q* o7 I6 H {8 l6 h( {$ m U0 `Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) T$ v4 y) @# f/ Q& m0 z; s+ z5 T% G( {
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 u9 ~4 W! K+ K0 n7 q9 y! q% B z" C# s+ Y1 I" j
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 N1 [3 R8 c0 l3 B1 A- ?: [) d7 s" C% p2 p i
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 0 e0 q% B4 g4 \. w" d: ~# f' \
[7 c) ]" n' R" ^4 j5 ~! j2 X"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 {8 b9 O" z8 B! ^" \- a2 a
: S6 E2 E7 O/ w& V% e* {$ ~% WGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 B' u1 [2 Z# z9 i5 L; E0 X( M! ] 9 y# S% P% u2 \3 l, x' Y8 eThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
