外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 % o* P6 ?) e; l4 h2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 - g, m& y: M- l4 |2 A6 ]; F9 u x1 C9 K( p, P O8 |) \; X/ D2 [ & a3 g. U6 H; Q( _0 y4 K
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。, ^; ^0 H) h/ W g# ?4 A
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 h) y) ^1 s/ t/ C6 G! P$ C8 _7 a0 m: c7 v
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。. @0 h+ w# f$ ]. i8 f/ P: U2 o
' O9 X' X7 [' o8 I% ?! o 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 : R: x2 Q( d) a; h , S. p6 p; w/ L. v" A, _; }; V% Y 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 t U" `1 v5 ^$ `3 n+ x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 2 H9 c; k0 i6 r. M3 F5 Z8 s- C+ m - D* X7 { e% ?: g/ k j! x 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 8 J6 ^( Z7 d; m) V6 ~ 7 u& F( o* W' @# y1 U9 S4 {2 E（责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 A w# C5 c. j8 K1 G- x' f$ e1 W* i
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters . l! f7 [; u9 V % \! E ~" ?) [* c9 [ k) y8 e7 NBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 o1 e! V( ]2 w4 i2 f0 r6 d
7 y& ~8 |( { C& IA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % ^8 k' ` P% ]/ w! @. r1 t* e
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; w4 ?! I' ^! [0 ~. o9 [- l! [0 o( i N8 l+ }( l- u/ F
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. & }8 h5 r- {9 `+ M# R
0 e, g0 g4 e# |- Q$ G3 i$ `( W5 PRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. u3 y) \* a5 {$ I8 \( g8 { # l3 ]/ O; J6 J& W1 a& `+ mFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % b! }7 p! E* ]5 x 1 k/ {% m( J, X7 [This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. , z3 H1 O6 U+ ]9 E, P( V: X1 Z
6 A0 J$ X. h/ v"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : b( B+ O- v8 u# N) }% Y
' `: B7 m i+ f' rIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 `! U; c9 B- U/ i [5 D' |) g( Q5 W$ zGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. z$ k- u! m+ I. d/ F) u9 ? 8 I/ J1 |3 ^8 |5 AThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; i6 _* c# ~5 \2 e% A
' j H% ]& m' W- \6 M& R9 {Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . l( n% l1 T9 U2 F# E$ q0 c6 s, F* J% l) _
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 A6 \. w. P- g* h* S" Z/ f+ r
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & D% x: v' M0 q% ^, q9 G
; P% S. l, q2 O" d9 xInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( @" ~" h0 E n5 F$ Z8 ] ) f# w! Q2 u& Q+ a' }" u"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 K2 d' g9 B0 b
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! M5 z2 K9 F4 i9 k; r/ E/ v
