% u' y j9 B! j8 k7 f! s中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 " H4 K- r$ c, J" S+ v9 o3 q 4 \+ s" Q: F$ j( f+ | 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 6 Q, k/ c0 v, b4 S# ^. I( F6 j! A1 f; m: u! W6 a
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 * L2 N5 \' T1 V* ^5 `' ]: Q7 h) | T: c1 x
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 n+ I- @. x3 }: X
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。& @6 K* z q, V5 ~7 y6 F) y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。/ P' M; h2 Y) E' s% e. h0 m
! U+ C+ \8 @: u2 W- \, o1 j 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 " t. g8 C# `" x/ i* o t7 e ) X/ h) i& T- n（责任编辑：杨海洋） + O+ ?. ^" Y& K% { ' w; ~0 j7 Y( K* i- xRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters5 d3 M$ M! u1 e* D$ |; \, U& O
5 k X# ]. y: y! m2 xBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * V) V2 B$ n- [
5 E- j; l. |; T8 X+ \/ eA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! U2 e& w& `% z5 d7 e: Z$ f o2 p - a8 k9 h2 R, A" CLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * J4 e [$ | n" j5 {
7 j5 t. \5 [: j' T5 D' bAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( {4 f! P+ f! X% Q; f
8 o, ~( J( E& S2 R6 Z! bRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : D9 U6 A) k# w+ W9 J
: \8 e0 ]% l- a( ?8 v, j9 X6 o# NFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 i# Y* H! r. b& v2 g7 t E, N8 z8 Z" Q' c4 R% k1 I L
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / f& U/ W+ m7 p* S4 s! T8 b& J
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 g3 O; j& d9 a3 v' y
6 q8 G4 K# O% B8 \# fIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 B# t& b/ r& j. ]/ b5 B
6 N" a$ F2 c) C+ F q& QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( n# b0 p5 F6 P: {9 B# x& d8 M& l
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & k& |# Z3 O2 l' Q9 i; f! C X, U0 L: z+ @9 O, mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. $ E! H) u( m/ a1 g6 M8 m# E( K; X8 g0 \
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 @ }7 M4 N; T' n) O
; @9 l1 Y+ ~/ Z, Z) QIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 H& A& H) Y5 v8 ]# A* `* v" [. e5 G( E2 K
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 H1 l `6 }/ W" F9 Y- B
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 I) M' j s3 J2 b/ {+ t4 Y 4 u8 P# E# d7 SGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - S' g, \% S& |
