外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年" H" e. m! {( r/ U0 g
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 2 ~1 i" u7 W- D- {% w8 A+ A8 P2 v. g. Q7 E
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 3 @; _4 I8 l7 y1 a; K/ _" | ) Y0 Z! o, @, P5 s) W 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。0 J0 _" e9 q. h1 ~% Z- T: E7 q2 n
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。( u! q) b5 c7 D5 c# n' F( k! [
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 * K/ {: C& {% n # a/ R U9 v4 X* U; M 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 , i! o W: b* k# m& p0 Y/ | 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 s1 r/ i" P* Z7 ^; e : S' |0 y/ e% ~/ s/ q- o 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。0 F& G3 d! N; i$ J5 R3 j6 |
' o1 a- I8 \8 s- O' ?: d （责任编辑：杨海洋） . }; d( V, l, f7 p9 S% i! \) n3 [. V
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 }! w7 ^ n0 e9 Y, ^8 A+ x4 b O, {% t
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( S0 L; i- z% o7 ]/ @4 O J$ x7 \# T1 u X, H/ a* x7 F
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * Y- c$ [+ V7 W3 w ( \; Q% ]$ H1 R1 X& N; bLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # l$ h, @- j( I' F7 J% L8 ?
0 X- L3 y' N9 ^) p. L1 |; SAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 5 F8 M- M& r; y- x" `4 R6 M& V4 ]* \% \1 u6 a$ ~" K
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % q% H, q# T/ y! \( Y' p, \7 h& T( i9 P6 m2 a9 l* _
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " n- P9 \/ \; S! J- C9 `# B
/ R$ f0 h( M$ `) W5 qThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " w/ _6 h B8 t2 U. _0 s
/ C0 _) {7 Q% D- ~9 _"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. & F' h% K4 e6 r( {- ~8 h: d. p k # c |, N1 g# n. cIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 N8 l4 m" W! [" O4 n 9 K7 D) G! b0 `( OGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % F# i- ]5 o2 f, Y( q: q- v7 v! k3 `
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - F$ ^* Q; p) Q0 @ F F
1 @! V, J2 e0 `2 R# t# TUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 D: [; s. W& M W8 Y
1 P: h4 e* R$ a% A4 |China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 i4 R8 t% N" c9 l# p. q: i% N
; Z& {& w# S7 }2 G1 A' bIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % V4 q7 ]. A6 C, n8 @4 I9 T p! S 8 y K+ a% F% Q2 v1 h# eInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . E2 B' J. @# M# g: i; q
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # y( p4 c' _3 F9 d8 Q: p5 Q; A& l h* \, M# H3 x, p9 s& B8 Z
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 A6 F* v, a; {5 ^& O1 v9 M # X6 P' j3 V: s! s) L- BThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
