外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年/ x: b K. P4 L. E x: i
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 : d. f; w! p l7 d Z/ p( ~* }6 l5 |* m7 ?
+ k* ?2 q& B1 H e3 F. W中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 t! I! Q3 e" @- [ 1 ?+ h; W- M; M* F 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。, q9 K& ~1 j. J; z$ Y0 Y3 e0 p
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。/ n) r1 ?2 D3 Q3 K6 Y
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 1 M6 x+ a4 }7 j% c0 O+ N% _+ V0 ?4 `9 |4 U6 F2 F5 U# n8 p; a
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 & e. T! V7 L% i 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 + b* X/ \2 @+ V, |- `3 } e8 Z " N; s% X/ r3 @ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ) y5 ^0 Q! I6 S8 m: F' A) N5 n7 G( \4 u （责任编辑：杨海洋） K/ y1 `- k+ D8 ?- O
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters$ j O$ i6 Z' ^# ~5 S& G
: P2 H5 s6 u2 Y; R) ]BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) P, g" ~. P0 ]+ K2 @+ s7 Y1 h$ q$ |/ K+ o) l f8 ]1 f* g
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 y S, N# E6 A5 Q8 D1 P6 o 8 V' ~) G9 ]. s Z( L' nLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , Z/ v& X1 S/ ~4 D 3 f8 v; B/ @% t# r1 M& IAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! Y* b: t0 I0 Q8 Q, h. ], g, ~/ n- {0 _: @: J: F- f' T
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ T( J3 h% \3 ~$ \2 w% y9 T. T& u9 c$ Y8 \9 a
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) E8 }! B) y" {0 S# G7 |+ ]2 S 3 n5 x. A0 ]- K1 N9 v+ W% BThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & `4 {0 ], p' Z7 Y. w 9 H4 k7 q1 g$ P9 _, l' x0 k ?1 a"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 M. g- }- ]8 h. L( q: p( Y; G6 r! D* t6 F
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 P4 m( l( L7 T5 L/ D* a6 s* L' C$ q ~, Z; @" n
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . @$ w$ S! b' i ) u/ ^" x: i1 o2 i0 a" P! FThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ j8 c d3 n c5 o
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 P% K& E& n. T3 m% C: X6 b' V
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". y/ A1 S' x& y$ u6 Z8 k! j: I9 a
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 ]9 e& l3 Z+ z7 Z% I2 N2 W- j- {% h5 t
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 a9 x* w# Q6 Q% g r, }3 B9 f0 `8 Q8 z3 p$ ~
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 x+ l8 ^6 [& s/ F. ^/ e. V
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 3 X( s" u A9 v; m _0 `$ t; l8 x2 y& J/ j0 C
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
