1 P; V+ ?4 Q0 R& ~6 Z% mRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters # B% a. M' i$ E' F, L; m( Q# D 3 y' F9 J7 x6 V5 F8 A* sBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ( @ [7 q( q) d* Z: X# ?) [) C' F: ]5 m4 k, t8 A3 U6 y
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / }3 | ] B. |0 d7 U( l0 O3 s; N- g: I
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 Z3 w5 ?0 c7 `& u* y: a& K: y" [; \3 n; K3 d5 K7 g$ K1 [' g4 g! ~
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 9 y4 U5 M G# K, S( z) y) e) @
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . V K2 K+ I0 p4 ]2 w+ g( P6 K& ~7 j% }9 m: u2 W2 }! ], z% y
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 c. N' b5 s2 l' B0 ^) M: }* J
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. , E) z! z7 F4 L4 b( v5 X, L: t2 C9 i; u/ D
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : \! O( G6 H, W+ \. c" Y' z 5 P5 q8 P2 v0 L/ tIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 o3 q, P) Z; n5 Z# X; B/ C" \/ F! c F2 t
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , x, \% i, u* K7 C: u Y9 K1 v" w# w, m: d
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , a6 B! P, p" x' S" n$ {( w
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & [: s$ z% R! j) C$ j6 P6 a
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 6 c# C* y$ y$ b J
0 y" F- X3 ?$ N2 PIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # \, \* i3 O! d1 {2 `( {5 o- g K & U0 z0 [) G5 X: oInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. " m0 Q& X* g3 s: x, G " |9 A" j" g: M"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( j. F* M; I; o1 ^0 [5 C1 u" t' V1 I8 d3 X& z7 A0 w
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 6 ^9 w! C3 B) @/ E' r$ G5 r9 m3 t# }. b
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
