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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 3 _$ D$ R% ]- o( U- q" Y% S2 g/ [9 h6 `3 l- E/ g
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 " Y' ?: z6 F/ H2 F% O/ H 6 m9 y/ y5 ?' p% c 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 2 T( d8 S: a. t " o0 D; M d. O1 O+ i0 ` 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' j& U3 u& H) B) P9 _' P! V5 J0 d# _
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ' R% Y+ z) f, X6 p- J; Q$ t; M4 P 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。9 M7 l( c# z3 N' D6 G) f0 O
1 G/ B0 S2 z, s0 L& y# P 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # a! g( {# P! x; Y4 n- ] ' j9 Q) n. i; I, r4 l, N（责任编辑：杨海洋） 2 j' I6 K4 Q( n+ ~1 H9 _* q1 ~ a5 Z$ v) o0 C* a8 ?+ cRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters/ h7 ~' W* f. q# W d
. W" z' L" O% q2 rBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 X6 r% q6 k! Q; o
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % v+ h! e5 A2 L( a p1 x
$ D% m$ G; I, e+ j& ]Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 r1 D# ]1 m3 X
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / V) H+ U, F) _ E2 D L1 A1 L
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 3 o0 Q. ?; F( M8 l* u# V+ r
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; ]# _+ h, h1 Q( l( F6 e0 a* @" X& s9 [% c K1 `8 |. R
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 F, D0 R$ z# C1 ^5 y 8 M+ C5 d0 D) T) I& u7 J"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 x; l) N) U1 j% f1 Q4 u. m- D, Y/ d& q% Z9 y; ]4 y; W
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 _0 L+ V; a# S& U7 ]
; B$ F- _& {- T: o, _9 [9 AGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ) [, \+ f; V$ M. P: A4 I$ M ~% {- {4 L4 N6 d# Y. b# L
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( Y: E7 c# ^# g/ h' l; e/ _! {1 ]0 v) V* a7 B0 K* |( w% H
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & u: X& M% u5 j& e! C5 _5 l
9 G; K* o: @" `4 X+ y MChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , S: X8 ]/ v9 ^( f U. w
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) u. T0 ?* T: {+ {- o- M# [' V% g/ t4 b3 m' j/ P5 y2 n
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' C8 O( h, c: b" P4 q5 P& ^
2 b# W% H* ^! U6 I6 `"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 B- P. Q* S- O8 y' t q. }1 G' Q1 @6 u$ w6 i# P: k8 M
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' }, r0 K, N9 Q# n5 {: I+ Q# Z7 W! w' Z) K5 |+ N% n
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
