- f% O9 Y, E8 x( E2 dRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters , ]0 i$ H4 X+ x, \9 Q [& t5 v( f# U& q
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 @0 }3 j4 F# q N. E0 n 6 n# J# e; L J. J( }0 JA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : k& L4 Q: J, G* q/ Y & {8 G2 r! }# N6 D) [Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # s% G( {6 d* s! r: N: H 2 k5 h) U* ] ~, s+ L$ u$ j9 vAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + w( W/ ~$ { _/ W! @: [, w% E
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 g, ^# ]" o6 B! M( i0 L
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 @- ^2 y) R! x $ d) W$ v f+ z# Q2 g" ?' uThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . j$ }* [: Z) Q: k- f3 C5 ~5 C! m7 n8 ]& c' y6 z6 b
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / N4 r* I% u0 M; A0 ]/ n, R w- Y% i- @
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 u0 G% p u4 G
$ p% c; s( M( c. X6 v CGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 z: u/ n. s! D; a( k$ X4 Q/ Y' X2 A) X) C
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : ?% G/ a, Q6 U5 x) K/ }& j" A
, ]4 k5 W% l9 A8 _( }Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * p0 F+ v4 {2 @! N1 o% k# ?( g/ F7 { a- j
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". % d. y( ]' d% I2 i/ V " K+ ]; X0 }2 K# |9 k7 S* |If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 z. Z# g. U* j$ t, [' T4 Y0 y/ L$ q% Z l7 t5 p9 ~/ v! W
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ) `4 `: S3 @$ e! Y0 u& M
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. `* }# B) {) N& ?1 y. S! d0 b* h( |4 F5 m
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( R* g( w8 B% y1 N3 i. u3 V; D+ ^4 S' ~; u. h- H3 H) }
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
