外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年& F+ E; _5 V/ @' n
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 + V3 p6 J( M# ~. o+ m9 }4 P* a7 u) S( s. v2 f
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 6 D3 G2 E' l% k8 {$ u' q1 B+ Z9 u; n9 s* d" ^6 e; m
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。/ v F4 U x4 _7 G$ ]
0 x2 u; @4 n5 A+ P* B 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。. o% }3 x' C: B$ d
( J) H8 U5 g) V 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 / b' n/ L2 b7 p3 T1 e* x & j" W2 w$ |. a3 r5 E/ L3 ~ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。7 A7 v# @' T$ e1 S4 z3 d! i
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。' i1 x: [" ]0 U; k9 Z4 r$ f
0 h4 M) R7 W% a Q7 l, Y3 K; z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 ! |5 n4 B4 h+ z7 `" z: a ; U- g- z" E! S! b9 B" f（责任编辑：杨海洋） * Y K) N' Q) ^" C. q0 t- k" ^* P/ r1 T* |$ W U
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters# O: e6 S3 f6 U+ `) _% X
9 W Z& w5 \) RBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - y. Y! e9 u7 T3 O1 M
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 j" V7 c/ H }6 c0 O5 o# X
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. & G" ?/ ?' g' W: o % t; p c7 w7 j0 D0 D `After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; P" I8 e* o+ I3 g/ ~ 8 r2 W7 U( w: n/ ~Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 e& j# O |' v0 q, ]) j 4 x$ ?+ v6 `4 c4 _8 _First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 s) a7 c$ x% z' o
% @1 T8 j3 D' [This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ m& P% J/ U+ ]% _+ i
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . i, c* {6 l+ P 4 g3 t: @8 A3 f- K2 ^3 cIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) I% l+ ]& L- `" \1 R4 C' h, z: ^" N+ m: t" l
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 1 T$ O1 G5 h8 V
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % x. J' U( |1 x2 i9 U+ ~9 V0 |
. {7 W5 e# `5 U# X* S+ g0 I9 CUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & t5 V5 r8 \' Z+ C8 E* c" @ ` 2 X4 K* G! w0 a! GChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; |& P" F& |) t% r& j
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. , `8 ?, I* N) ]7 o2 b7 w3 j* \1 f# g) D- ?$ }8 d c! e' s& c
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * T: w0 l9 M! L# r
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( V8 }8 C* b/ W( U7 x. l7 O( ~8 t; x8 b1 i( y( B
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 Y* U, O) L) c) E1 y
