& t) ~5 W. p; g( o$ o0 J9 w* n% | 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。& T9 }6 i6 S* z: G
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。+ w+ J* i) F, Q3 |" r ~
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 7 Z/ P4 g- K* A9 s; h) k) @6 \$ ]* ]6 e1 j
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # P) s9 @) e! ]! f \ ' F4 q/ }# G# ~（责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 |8 Z2 O2 p' x- | T0 J( H4 m# P9 _' j, H# K8 h6 r9 o: p
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 H! A. m5 [6 F( W- f! l5 E 0 e- p' w! _( U+ f# b& GBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. , A$ U R- d. }# }
4 t# I2 r2 |2 b; d" ?- tA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * \2 j( g/ v# Q $ ~; f7 C& H0 P/ DLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 M, V# n% [. ^- f: ?. [$ t1 I, T# j: P- ? x- |4 y
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * k* U; I& h) }, Y
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' S% V% u9 x7 D" z
: \; q, H2 t- M& NFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 S$ V" |( |2 F5 A3 D
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ `4 Y5 m& g3 \: j! b3 `9 }
. u. t8 R6 ` @1 o1 T" c"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 C8 z* L8 N: ] [: o* y; o' E# s, }. j3 {, r' d0 ?
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - q( N) a1 n' X + K8 o6 h7 d% D- {( A2 q8 O/ CGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( J/ i! r& d- W7 n1 B5 q
: M% D l% t/ i& T. }, _; {That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # q; i3 b; D3 A ) P# h$ }4 F! N0 {- D8 mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 z' W7 m/ [3 l+ n 9 R V6 X3 A9 i! g4 [China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 q0 z* r" X0 s) U1 C3 {+ G# l3 i5 h0 w/ H4 M
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ ?# F( [2 E9 k) S 4 B c8 [+ o7 i1 o) }8 C6 gInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - }9 S! q7 f( [; u+ L3 }1 h2 I( T7 b! C1 `7 D
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ U- @ }, n. R) Y. l) q
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % b" [5 L# t! D! a8 B
