外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, K9 C# B% W1 C* ^- x
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞; }% T% b1 e' x; n6 q
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。% ?- `2 V# a8 U( c) [* x# G( I
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。5 p9 ?9 @5 o* |8 @( v
5 U( ^, D) R7 y 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。* b' p; X" z5 u6 L
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 6 y, d6 k+ L/ i! X l" O [) } 2 u7 C. I. C% S$ T% Z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。9 U9 O: _0 d! P
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 8 y7 E7 e- W( t( L& L8 s, K 6 t- \+ N( K- f1 R 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。5 a$ ~6 q+ f9 x" k
" J4 F+ d" H- D, A: c5 c' L! | （责任编辑：杨海洋） ( f$ Z( x" a/ V: q$ ?7 x) g9 V! f' Z3 W- v) \' }+ I
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters , U+ K6 ~5 V' L9 }3 ] 0 D( Z& g& |) S* P5 {, c' T/ YBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! m. a( U$ f" r, S& e; n6 S# L$ o* Q' S; E
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 ^9 R5 X% w2 h2 H4 ^# M1 Z7 C% e* ]( m7 \
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 Z( X/ c- ]9 Z k1 Z; K+ v
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 j: L9 e/ b0 C- F$ g
1 ^; `1 N$ o r& j- uRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( {/ q# D1 }- k2 b
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 o4 j$ o- o2 _& Z" |$ n! U I: G* b- t2 F8 U1 V" D
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - f6 j4 K8 @- @) l8 N1 M$ z6 R4 X/ Q9 B
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 Q% ]( [$ b4 _7 D' u
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; b( B3 A \. `: \) j
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 m. r- b, }+ J& p
]/ L" K! o) hThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ F" ]) @+ k4 d3 [9 r $ M; L6 l$ H( K5 b! O9 y: i$ P+ yUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 7 S: s" l5 N* O4 d2 o; F! C) f. J, d8 d$ ]
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 4 w5 N' I. Q( _2 w% U( h5 d2 e 5 n, o0 S! p2 V! ^: _6 D! P* b& I9 @If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & H# L1 H* ^9 _+ E/ c. U9 Q$ i! J7 Q u3 i, Y
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 R5 L. B. I% N$ n& |; D( Q 8 y; w5 t% ?3 S1 n$ p; m"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 m2 ], @0 E; x4 Q, F0 T9 h' O. j- B c Y7 R, E/ n5 {
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & I; ]& H8 P! H7 a% S/ k3 D
$ ^( g- n1 @0 H! B. GThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
