6 W- t7 T k/ }/ s: e 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。$ D( i6 q9 C9 v* R
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 9 r6 s5 J& v1 X, ` , n- O4 `6 u' m0 _ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。' ]4 k3 D6 U# S k" k. f, s! [
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 . n: e2 |5 Z' ]# p# d# @9 m" d9 ^ v" j1 t8 J; o
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 _2 `1 W( B0 O: {" E
1 `% e6 F/ _; e1 r4 g( ]' o（责任编辑：杨海洋）' w( b+ A2 ?1 D; H I* I
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, R1 Z4 n, r9 n8 \/ o
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. * s) I8 A- m, @) L2 n; n P/ S- }( H. ^) R9 w, [2 D% PA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * r9 H# S5 o. ]' Y8 ^7 k/ _9 P
O) ]& p$ X PLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # S9 V. O1 Z/ w2 E
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 3 P7 E ^' S1 @ z# K 4 s8 |5 X: ]( B1 f8 R# m) P. CRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 }0 ?2 J6 _) S4 E4 @ - [* b2 P& ~( E% x. iFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . }, t: {6 m5 S+ G' N; n . b) }% g; ]# ]# hThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 3 l7 |" L4 v. S/ d
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 F/ n0 f' c7 h' w* t+ @- [$ o, k4 o: j! F5 o/ A7 n
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - k( {6 n+ V8 A& L% n# c: S' H
: \2 g V) t$ C2 X& WGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 ~" Y; m' X6 b1 s. U$ ^6 R6 u5 j, i7 z7 w( w+ s
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( z% F" P$ f" v2 a
4 H$ Y- P, P' e' G& N" ~+ C+ kUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + y9 w4 Z4 v3 p" y3 ^& c ?* ~' W5 z+ z2 }
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 C9 c7 G: x8 h& Y
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . b3 W/ o/ v; E& W 8 i+ u; S+ S4 d+ _% p' z. E5 @International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 G5 N0 V7 l% V9 z5 n2 o
7 }: i2 F* K# q* @/ x"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 f# Q1 V+ m% e# Z- A9 ?
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 5 U$ f. b8 T, A& J" R! x, d$ G/ {: ~2 l/ k, m
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
