外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年' L* x% T3 X2 o1 W! K; H
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 ; S+ h6 P$ y. |. A 1 Q; I7 X0 t/ e' a + v$ s& G: M0 r* l中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 4 y. v c4 c' ~& W4 z5 u " ^2 I7 ~+ {# e3 } 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 c/ y9 ?6 b- ]0 U- k) R- {; g' }4 C1 `' {
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。/ `. z/ a/ C, h+ @
- [% q) L2 |! B9 K9 ?* P R- |' p 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 # ]( \) Z* v$ u6 a( d' F; G7 N9 m+ M; I7 k" a8 [
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! H, n: Q& L0 ?8 G0 a) \) Y
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。; [2 S4 e V0 L: c* y; h
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 * K% V+ A5 O4 Z% M* f# H ; j5 ]% C- K8 V5 n（责任编辑：杨海洋）& o# U% K1 {) y. B, }7 I6 M
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: e- H6 `/ r' C# r3 F+ t& x- ]
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. F& }) Y1 ~9 F& Q3 t; U 1 @5 z$ c. ?0 X& e2 l# }& HA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . D6 t" q$ x: S" c8 S$ X% d3 ]( Y i. j
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 6 a# {8 y. } G) C N( ~9 c
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. * }' d+ P. i, I2 S* w
2 K: r7 M" U( s: K+ ZRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : S8 z; [. l; R, M
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ h' u1 [3 z6 [+ A/ D9 e
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 J* b# J |2 ]0 h; R3 A2 E( ]# t
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 O5 v, T9 W! J( a4 {
: x+ {+ j7 `( e( \* b MIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 0 I5 O* m6 o6 Z* _* o# m
. A1 @# H3 [. g, H7 r5 YGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 k) G \5 y9 @5 R% Z& P" p1 T; {" E4 Z& }6 l J% A* o% _
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 A9 w& n7 P I# C/ }- D3 V ! }$ A& ?- g3 ^) \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. h' G8 ^! ^* A G" c; r; G o
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ) ^! L" I% ?* g3 m" h% L, E$ W# u y1 b) ?
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. + ^' ?) a3 w$ E; m
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 R3 Y4 e6 s- ~% f
- D. I8 v/ t8 W1 }& \"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - _8 y5 d8 m6 ]3 s: P % {' F3 ^: u, b5 Y. L8 a1 E' CGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 L. J f! i4 C( A/ t& G
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
