' d9 ^/ W: B' A. B" U$ B6 H% L+ }中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。5 g+ X& E8 b+ _4 Z$ S" c
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 : V* `3 M) D) X! d! m: ^+ ~- A1 D- U' y0 l1 e# ~* A2 q; V
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。! }% `3 U9 t1 r+ E
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 5 J2 X: i2 U- F/ I: v 7 ]7 o. V6 u) u; [4 e9 \) t8 ~ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 6 H6 f! ?1 U x) Q 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。; S4 V) D b4 i' e0 A4 f1 H
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。% Z4 |$ ?0 U) q! X- [
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ) ^+ h- S- `9 G ( H$ s0 e9 S3 MBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 B# U% t+ [/ P1 B; a% L* h+ j. t( M$ w, n
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , k1 y1 X* G4 L7 h) v% J2 I8 M
! q) s1 h5 i F5 S9 O- ?- |# eLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; B/ N# @& o$ v9 X/ d7 h/ }' [9 y. z" z
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ]: B8 x8 _- z) @$ U4 I
* x' G; B( d" Q# ^% ?/ B. RRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ; A4 Z ~* P: x4 n% p # P) G' \$ r3 DFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # v- P9 O4 u4 [5 d: ~ ( E% w$ E4 `" {, r. P6 e! cThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 1 D5 p! `. b/ X$ w+ k
6 {$ i8 X- W6 U- a2 f& I2 G"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - g' ]$ q. N" l/ x( O. `0 M! s8 [4 | 1 I9 d: k ?; q: h9 Q0 w2 qIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 s+ T- P5 X+ h7 T! u' D# a; p% F- D& Q
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 g& I: C G7 s; J0 D : x. v0 W7 o% A k, `That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 c. D: |9 [* ~1 P! _5 [, k5 f0 z" c4 V1 ]+ I
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 P! j7 S. U6 n) K2 e4 u0 P : ^" d9 [5 G' H, C b. bChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : z. N0 ]' I$ ~+ M+ D 9 R4 ?: E/ f; R' V/ p/ yIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 h3 e/ Y/ v" R/ | * n' Y" U* V& s. z/ BInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 x1 @$ _8 \; x" [! y0 K
( J% Q; Z7 n4 ^8 z0 `/ x" d/ _3 v"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. , W, ]* Y% g) V* B7 }: M* H( K6 e 9 l9 K i3 W% V$ E1 i& P/ OGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 }; b0 x) F- q5 T 0 [2 R% @* o8 ^" w: N) vThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
