' ?+ V+ u: s! ]0 M B) p6 m' S中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 6 n( W) _& _2 ?: t' t; e2 b$ @7 t* C3 Z- z8 G7 W8 B
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* Z2 i, |( Q6 }( F- j% P4 p
$ n& t% e5 Y, v# x. E 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。8 e3 ~' S( ?' x& ~8 }% t: X
$ K E3 | X: [6 K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。! B' A1 _6 z% [+ [4 v- a; t* m) g
3 W2 j, n& M9 G+ E8 b1 F 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。$ z! f+ R$ {% f- u1 l% N
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( W. R2 W8 X3 j9 t# }' c$ e& B3 _
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 2 O& J4 J7 r ~, [7 e) K: b2 W& C3 V0 }+ `1 | （责任编辑：杨海洋）" l w+ i, S, b. }+ C
2 Z8 J' ~* m. j M/ n7 _Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters $ L1 v" B- I. U$ a4 Q+ a9 j* m0 h1 Q% j
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) W4 T+ `) `9 e, w8 I" I. N" |& ^
2 H# N" \3 W, C! X' l# {9 KA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! |; w8 e7 U/ U. C* @0 A* E
& v2 j) F2 x3 O, E6 l3 l* B9 t5 JLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 4 u/ b5 Y2 O- {; }) C9 @
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; K( Z0 v/ Z' p0 B . H+ f3 \7 q* j. Y- Y) |Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - e5 f$ K5 ^7 q0 M- B. Z 6 a9 A* v5 @/ _# zFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' D8 L: w% n2 ^1 F6 X
8 f; V8 \& n* YThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 o/ U! u5 X+ c ; P9 n0 J% r; ^9 s6 N"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - I) T" X& ~& w4 \
8 v6 t1 S- F1 z( B% k2 E6 yIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. g, C, f+ k! ?2 {. Y: }
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 3 r2 }3 m8 y5 U% v1 {, x + b8 W% P( i2 y; XThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) c+ W- c! R' X9 a& M9 }8 i' c+ v. z
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % E# [- I n) j/ o* t
1 P% ?+ B' _" {China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". f" c4 h5 f' }- @: \# x
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' V5 B! [1 {/ s' H; ~4 M) G9 F9 E* ^3 e, N% t
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( V: d2 s) }" {$ U5 M 4 X8 u2 K4 g* F5 G"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 M G; z# U9 f2 u% L
4 } r- t) \8 X) yGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) E2 |2 r. m$ R4 Q
