6 B' x9 y! ?' z6 E9 \' L% T 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 7 {) U& X4 U1 D: D3 O' j7 b& u9 T! m" I
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 9 J. U0 u2 P) I4 S0 O; s; Y $ M h- z9 ]# l k$ V. Q: U 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 6 H$ }6 q- b! s2 E9 C$ k* d \( m; O- c9 [. @
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 8 k. B7 T6 M1 x3 X- c5 b 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 2 Q5 u5 Q7 z! V Q! m0 g- Q # i( d3 X, G. U. k' s! A/ y 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # T4 k. f7 m s" i4 q+ j/ e8 T# E$ }6 F- x （责任编辑：杨海洋） $ P$ W* n; C& J$ W( c5 a( w: g d. o+ J8 X
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters& A' O/ J% W C0 l
5 P2 W% @2 S+ B! W9 ]5 nBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 |. l2 w# n0 R/ I @+ F" W+ K) sA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : p) c' {( B1 `1 g7 j# |8 A& ]; ^# |6 E3 B7 @. E3 C# e4 A/ v
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) T, P1 r# Y: P; N. @ T( {
- G! @) C: }1 sAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. / q1 `+ \4 r% f/ M% g 3 T6 E: w2 Z" Z: g, ERoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : \+ }7 k6 T# ?
, x4 N& T" F. s M
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) c5 O: e" X+ Z% N
0 W0 T% j& W" d9 t2 wThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # y2 C# u1 W( R; }; y- h
3 \1 h9 |2 C+ y \) j/ s6 H
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - v4 b3 A+ g$ b) s& Z$ C% T. E
# n; S& F8 B9 X% f1 ]In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 m4 Q. ^) ~8 J% F. N- g% b8 i
% ?7 o9 ~6 D/ ]3 C- d6 B
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 V. f4 n# S! {! Q p- q1 n; S) T' ]9 J+ s) |; Q6 y; `. z
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 l; R6 ]* T# P9 b/ w' z/ M- {! [' r4 H, S) Y
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - S$ E1 M! H% o: |3 H 5 W2 f, C" p* ~, N% S# G9 fChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * S8 d5 w: ~" I8 Q) F 0 g1 F8 p9 P) W8 XIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : h5 o9 b N! j* j1 U) L% V. O7 _
. ?# Z, o) J) R! _, G5 D, t. Z# Q7 WInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 e' j+ I, \( F. n F1 i 5 S' p; X3 ^! S9 K"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 1 X$ n# t3 }% q5 F+ o
K0 Y) K4 H1 X" A c" h
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 T/ y# p* G9 K6 l: H9 L) o6 b! P; q5 e( T0 e# C
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
