外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ; F$ h7 N, X: \0 ?. j! E9 [+ H2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞. b! `8 r0 Q, ~
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* E/ B! w: I: Q$ f中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 u% `- W! h/ o, e1 i4 F
; `8 q' v1 h9 Y& E+ B$ e 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。# f- H$ c; g* V9 d
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 $ u$ }- v2 [/ m1 x9 `& G1 j$ y3 u8 K5 u2 }' n
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 $ P- X# }1 v* Q# r) c# m+ t/ e, d/ a: Z! G4 d2 \. p; c: ~/ D
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。4 }( k2 M9 r1 ]4 S
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。& {0 B2 x, Y' ~; m& H+ d4 H
7 I r* x m$ T" f 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 [( k) o: E5 d) J
$ Z1 r2 G- E# D, [6 G（责任编辑：杨海洋） , M- l1 l+ t( h- E, Y% ^/ g3 t. E, w0 K1 p* v4 G1 `4 M
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 T6 r( E: c1 \5 h6 r8 u8 m% `
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - J# O* w4 a9 _- b/ E/ H2 e# Q- A! I3 s& d- t6 N# o
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " [! |! M& A* Z& t+ p' i3 m 4 m3 B# r: ~8 ?# k: H. CLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , x- c' M# N3 U8 l0 h5 x; V3 c5 ` v0 D! s9 z3 C
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # V- Y. o8 q8 w% R, _; I) k2 d* {0 O2 ^7 X5 C) }! F6 n
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , r, V/ E8 l: w: z2 c8 o
9 I, }5 s% d9 E4 P6 |First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. " J3 s- u& I' k# |; F5 F/ x+ j+ K & D t6 I$ }; ^This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. / v! m1 h4 K5 o. I3 S( V# i
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 9 P- f: b* L3 R4 g) y
3 ~' Q' b8 x# F1 OIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ) i1 b* ^0 v1 D+ M% f& A3 k, Y" ^' d6 f0 Z! H# B* o+ o, [
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; [& v+ I$ x) @+ i2 }8 T& n" }+ y' @/ b9 O
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ w1 F- ^& r u7 _% z$ L) i" F) A
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - \0 j0 L5 R' e+ p5 z; _, u' { Z0 C
/ j t- w& C) kChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( y- {! |2 M0 E( M7 B
+ j9 O) [4 C% _+ y" MIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & r/ U! U9 e1 x8 e# O. {: D' e! f4 Z
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / a+ P4 G% W6 l( N0 D; ]" c5 \
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # {8 r+ Z, D) I5 m5 }, x - G( _, }, }5 D5 LGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + t. ]: _* m$ u8 s* u4 h * H( x3 S' q. b/ e" n( x# f/ MThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
