* V8 ^1 ]. T# G 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。: N5 c8 a; P! e: j' Z: F) `
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。# h- R q" x' B
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 " C% O) K- K( M C! M, f* W+ e. F8 y 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 . {+ H, l$ k y! P - w4 Z( U! r# W& l8 F+ H) R4 U 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 A- _. J7 Z/ e0 j4 j, k
8 n, i- c$ s7 T) o' D) \. s8 A（责任编辑：杨海洋）( Z- Q( A' t& e
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters # z# [$ [3 G, E" W# l7 [: P# o' p, o
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 E# `8 E3 N4 u o7 ~# E
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " B' M3 d6 {# M0 _5 i) M( a8 d( | / T0 S& E/ Z0 B8 @Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 w9 H4 A! o: A. D L
% v, P+ N9 P* e; b: o; NAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + O% ?" T+ u/ h+ H+ o G
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 Y9 R# W- U% k( t/ z4 l0 y+ ]7 Q. H 7 {: K4 U4 E4 MFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 S+ q: [4 g$ v7 ]' P. M ! x7 f1 K. R! G) zThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 Q2 `8 c4 P! N1 C+ y
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + @2 E8 m6 i3 c
@5 t; @/ |" v( p& F$ ^In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 R0 x# H5 r- d# }0 }
- a( a: b' j4 b5 ~, A/ @Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. j+ s2 p$ m9 w5 w% o1 b - S) J, Q$ }, G) UThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! O! E. G- O- c5 [( F
* [6 _2 i9 @$ s u& q( yUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ) r4 X9 j# y1 r( B/ I8 e Y+ ~$ g& W& M5 h
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + g9 e: n1 ~0 J) \7 x) }4 C3 e6 V( A) ~+ F% R2 _
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ( R: z) ^9 p4 j/ m9 U9 @7 i7 u" ~) X6 ]# w4 `8 S3 B
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. $ J: Z7 _* r1 }1 o L+ z: E0 Z; p& J
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " |$ F3 N# z, C% z; l
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " A/ V+ ]1 D# {1 N# A
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
