2 p0 u2 J% }& i( S& X d * m4 X% G; R0 I+ w2 N1 B中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ; b; P9 y$ D3 Y. k6 T4 Q2 @; s( Q7 t
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。0 c; ] e& k9 q$ a* ]7 ]* R# y2 }
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。7 J! S! L j; G C( g$ b
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。) V0 i5 j b9 W2 g, ?2 V
O7 X6 s* @9 W2 F& R- @! j { I$ z 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! w+ M; p J p! @
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。, L: S( K+ [# r0 K/ j
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 `6 e+ S g1 Y3 t& B% h" `* a8 ~' w+ V& t- u; L （责任编辑：杨海洋） # T' G7 L3 P6 x# A! E* S. ]0 M9 G4 T$ `% w, c
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters! A. \/ L' j/ X9 |! z, ?5 Y/ d9 E
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ H6 v1 ]! s& ?. q * j C1 Y1 @. f& ? V! n; fA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( a/ K5 E; z7 G# F, Z9 N2 L
6 [* b9 V h* H6 rLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. , B. W' W3 `9 L8 ]. Z- z, i5 r( j* R
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + M# Z# Z! w# C4 o7 A* K4 a, q) a" p
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. : I/ A: J$ I6 v8 J, {* j* | ) R! b! f) X3 Q' t; @First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 E3 s( ~1 H( ?7 C4 i+ Q+ R0 p' ^/ W& U% Q6 W4 `9 Q
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 6 u, y$ b$ G; T S$ r
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + ?) k( ?- u! e0 q4 V5 g8 l; l6 y $ C# J; b- r j$ m; S: [In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! ?; M. @0 X8 D8 R* \+ J3 m( V" N0 u( | ) ^# H6 U( r" X: v# c( j" _Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' P4 D1 K4 g3 Y( f: M. G- r2 \- w
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 L- Y9 ?; E \* E; k! I1 h5 O4 G
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + U& A. G5 E& F& t3 {# u$ ?4 z# h" i* c" l4 N p! [
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( ~( m; G" f; a9 k/ b3 J b+ S3 W# u S* l" w* x% P+ d
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 3 M! l- Z; s9 w5 p$ M 9 ~- V2 D; V: \6 }6 s9 nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : B% C1 |( J" R q 9 |+ l/ }( a0 S) L% `9 X"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! v/ Y% u8 {) C8 h
* e" Q! _. d. q8 y8 HGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % i8 l* D2 c7 X) c5 q/ g. n) ] ! q5 j* x+ b+ o) |8 w4 xThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
