外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 / [) L! Z( U$ ?+ u- O; [9 s2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞/ o) O. m. H1 p# v
" J; a. N- B) |2 z" E& ~ . V) W r8 u* o1 h% }5 \' Z+ ^中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。2 p, h4 e+ _3 Q& U+ t5 u8 W# h1 U6 l6 c
2 [& ^& F# @( v c0 ^ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 4 F- U" _* i8 O, S2 s 3 M# \9 {: T, q3 c- R. z 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。0 j: N/ w3 _" B' ?/ l: d
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 5 K% b) E6 S) e) K# J) c3 p. p) m/ A- y* P7 ?& c: V
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。7 s- E/ I; }3 z7 l$ S) G
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。1 n8 c$ ]+ R2 |1 O7 p9 {
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。1 L, T* {" F3 t; G" i# P
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2 X& ^7 Z7 }: a) lRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters2 Z2 P# M# ?, x' e
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 G# l! U7 v5 B; ?5 X" R 8 h0 ]7 v) \" F- B# lA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " x* b$ @) ]$ e# J* X% X2 q) S# J9 ]2 z$ h0 K6 X" _+ q) L
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 D: p( u# L; z/ m ! a$ | {! y. O! O3 c9 R4 E7 UAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . c/ z+ L# ?8 }4 \2 ^ : A C' e0 y. z" k2 H. \ CRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 K) e6 \! V8 I . J8 s4 S& I$ sFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 n: q& Y6 G0 V/ x$ n0 D; B( \0 `- c% a* W, k! s' r. t u# v
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 w3 ~ L5 B7 N( r* F
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 6 } b" n0 n4 C7 ~! [4 A
+ `/ s( O/ n7 J/ L6 cIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 j3 ~% U3 |& M
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; a" {+ f* q0 E
$ t8 W# D, X2 h6 K# ]That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 M- Y- H- n) u4 |( N3 z5 w 1 t1 D& S, T4 ]- ?! u& d! xUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 ]; W5 d% \7 A. \
& f3 P- e6 z! G- x7 f" jChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , g9 w* \0 E3 K* D ' r; a* T8 S( mIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : H# U5 H7 Y! D5 G, [ 7 J! C/ r$ | s% V& EInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / x0 o( f3 }' ?7 @4 E7 M
' B. m* T+ Y) [! s8 Z8 Q6 y3 i, N"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " ^7 Y0 p3 Q3 w/ l/ F4 r6 {5 ~* j r5 W% j I" v0 v2 k+ x" [
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) b2 l. X- W. I( G 0 g2 R) {. T) i* |- F9 ^Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
