( }# F Y: d/ j) Z0 I) E* u7 W+ c（责任编辑：杨海洋）1 _# y- C5 R4 R3 m4 R2 i6 {
5 {/ E; `- R" v. n
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters% n" ~7 ?; H# u. s V7 c; T
+ N! V% A1 a9 @0 i, A- p+ T) k
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . `( ]- O3 h2 W * s7 }7 V3 }7 U! UA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * h- v) k* Y% q; J, L7 @+ p6 ]. M- @+ [4 ^1 s3 z x$ z4 x3 t3 ]
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 @' H" t8 o6 H) y& p' ~( }4 C# A* u% C3 _0 v7 g! K
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. - }, ~8 W; B5 [ G7 E0 g% T$ D) C" u3 U) T
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 8 p' B% T- d$ J3 v/ A" J! t U
) Q+ Y' b* i* s/ c8 q) Y. DFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. & d7 b; h7 M' F5 T- o- d/ g5 o% ^
8 P, g0 N) a+ T2 p
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 {' s: j$ A; S! Y) b& f9 _( w0 Z; k
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 a: W# h$ u) i9 j( q * K2 t$ p6 q# Q: RIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. A$ A! x( ]/ ], |8 c8 J$ T8 P
: }8 ~1 v6 G* \: }2 [
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 ]+ ]4 ?) t$ n6 p; w
1 m/ m! n* k5 Z: i) t
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , |$ a3 A5 r R' M/ V! o
, w/ L O" v5 X" p3 {
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 q+ N9 M* B0 [ `
) @3 y3 a8 B/ \( ]
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ h1 p: e% n1 J6 P4 r1 X0 l& ?; ?5 g; U& ~* [, z
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 r( _3 d& b9 a9 f3 c+ _ w
0 D: h, l. i& H7 f& G6 G
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. * d' l% W( ` H: ~% v3 [0 B2 e' {* M: B- m) s) ~& v
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % K0 J8 ?# @2 c
8 l4 ]2 L* r' _( n! x5 y
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. : u- y) r! X* n5 P& I( d5 D4 k( b
0 ]# X" D$ l& b1 t9 w1 v& x. c; Q8 W
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
