外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年0 o6 K! q# Y3 T! k+ h
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 # W7 W Q7 j$ b# }8 U$ q' L% Y7 H5 y: W
- `* Q" R9 g" \4 \1 ]: a' O中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 , a$ e; J" s! h9 N* e# y; M- ] 0 M- m" P" ], u/ K 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 * h3 u6 u: |, u7 K0 ~6 l. K% Y2 J7 C# H L1 R: G
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。% H* Z" `0 _7 K+ X0 t: w+ s
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。7 b( W9 Q2 x" T* H& v* l6 e: H. E
6 k/ t" W+ f1 @. M% d 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 9 N* C# f9 q( G {5 U9 M 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - M+ s6 ^3 m: G5 e' c* ~6 q, y+ B; @% n J0 k* s8 _7 p0 T0 s
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。; R5 E4 \$ I" W8 U5 n
! U3 s+ }* N" `（责任编辑：杨海洋）& z I+ R t3 |. P9 k4 @
* y2 m* e3 m* X; |# x4 j1 j& XRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 M0 F( k' i7 c0 k. `! J1 U6 Z4 z3 \) r: Q) C
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # a# l( c) n! z+ |) F: c
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ \. ~; L- O$ ?& a( g+ A: T5 o/ n- Q5 T( r: g' c6 ?! P% K
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 j) S* w( {9 f, V9 e
% ~2 Z+ v6 F! G& n& A! {After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 ?( O6 x4 _ `: u ; P/ F1 E! y3 V- ?7 l' u# O- [$ ORoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " ~5 C5 u) z4 Z# z( v+ p
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ J7 S5 O# H( U9 V" W1 H4 @0 o
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 E5 g2 }2 H/ x% B
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + |, y7 E3 @1 o0 {/ b( @3 r2 K7 k4 K
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! g j4 j0 A1 Z8 Z5 {# M' J
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 F! w: V- M& H, ^4 I9 \5 v
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . W3 C$ X( Z6 I8 y+ [; ] X$ G* Z4 f5 }: X4 v5 o
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % f: g, k" ~0 v/ q: D. v
; a. ^3 N/ K5 u' PChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". - @! j3 h( w# Q; q
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & \& D# t" q+ j/ I% n5 d
0 ~4 c; }+ R. A- A( pInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - P; G% D" T8 J8 u2 h" d
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. * v/ ], a) Z1 a' i4 ?5 c4 J
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 L4 J6 B! Y& F. w/ [0 R v; [3 r* }. J! ?# u! i) o+ F# V& \Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
