外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年' G0 O j: T/ m8 o- b) A N2 T
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 s. [" d* H$ z0 K- E+ M" e) l4 }9 k0 [9 C3 f5 M; s0 r
# I: c7 {9 o+ [+ j" z, W# G中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 - Q8 U' P' W& x" I6 f 0 B7 u8 t6 Y" T( x h, \ 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 . W& Q e# c' ~* v* A1 k: ?' | S5 a
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 4 d! R5 _# E& J% h7 K8 X% F1 r, F4 u: y X4 o4 a' |+ d* a
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, f8 R) n+ a3 c5 c0 h- I
# b' S! `8 ?( c, x; k 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! s% G3 k+ G+ ]9 G
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - d# ~1 y* h* C6 |; h A: n& W' @$ o9 Q6 l& t
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。' Q" r5 o' C3 r# u5 h2 `3 i
# J7 N1 _" N: O6 j4 ~1 R2 G6 z（责任编辑：杨海洋）: V0 I$ Z" O; x3 Q N; C; _
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 4 J$ Y$ n) M$ V2 ~7 R _ ; ~' w* M m: j2 f& a* i" `BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " y+ V3 A9 {" Y1 A( M: m + e+ ^" H1 D2 U* |8 y) S2 J) Q: }A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. z9 q, O3 \4 F$ K& h9 @4 o7 f ) I7 D- |1 F7 B" R) ]0 } fLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; ]8 I3 @7 u1 y- F& d2 P6 K# R4 e
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 Y+ T" y- u) y) Y8 o+ t; H! Q, B
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 4 C) i' l9 I; l7 _' _- M# c2 R6 y/ Z9 Z$ c5 H9 D$ Y
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. : o' ~/ t$ B; q) L- l3 a- K
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' a. r C3 h8 u) B' i% N) B; }7 j; O- z# I8 C; `
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / i! q! t3 K: N5 V
9 [& A' Q6 p" _0 \1 G dIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. / Q7 K: F% Z( c& @5 l, h. w4 X9 B: } ]9 H: o
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & z" |- k9 m% \' I1 d4 s8 H
% g6 f& P' N5 y9 R& N6 JThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , L# \' a9 {6 ^
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . Q# K1 K1 }$ ?+ t
8 }# c l, D) f! q; ^* dChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". * G& O9 k2 `- d/ [5 V % T: m! [& z6 CIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 z) [+ L% C* u2 ^6 {( f4 y+ V9 u( g# R6 B9 ?$ ]6 }
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 O$ [ S' t2 L- Y+ s( k9 H9 L2 T2 @2 v6 N c* a* b2 J* P/ u
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. + o. ?0 m b# v6 d/ X, `
6 z/ V5 t7 {- ^, L1 f7 o$ D8 ?Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 v4 f! t0 o+ [1 `" l! i4 R1 F
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
