T& I% F$ `* E( f/ v' m 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。3 l; T7 w ~1 L4 ^
4 T% I. y. H' G8 o) w
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。6 ]4 E. _7 c: r! w# e5 V' h
7 F! ^$ p6 U- R' M1 J" ` 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ! S$ c+ f9 ?. a9 } 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。3 C4 v) z8 J3 `5 d- e9 `2 g
1 ~' O; W9 x. m7 \! b
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 L2 ^% k! H- ]& y/ ^: n; ~% ^2 p l& m& c1 S, V1 j （责任编辑：杨海洋） 2 T% }9 M3 k9 u3 T % d9 }+ s: D4 K& g0 b/ ]& mRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters * `' O1 l9 x- I 4 G; U5 |1 s+ J: pBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 ~7 W0 h- V4 `& W9 T9 o! P5 M* o% T' P% p8 T: C1 Y9 o* _
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 4 ]( j3 a7 ~ p, h, V' a5 T1 |" T# _4 L3 i
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! N* B$ `. c* r0 u# N
; x& J9 f& B, M, w
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! {0 ~5 k D8 D% K9 N; T5 {* k1 S3 R' ?2 u c, s. P
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. * i+ _( C/ m- z6 ] ] + o2 a6 x% p0 q% S* W( nFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 4 Y. m! l3 i) {& g' i- Y5 Y
" a8 U6 b- N3 h9 h! b$ J
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 a8 p6 x- I q" K. w |) B6 A. J. Q, n1 e+ s; a; h& M
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , r% x8 S' I6 J0 a9 E
, g$ W( p' ` |) {In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - M' \* O* t4 z: R3 g; z
6 v$ e E% P9 Y
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. & G+ l/ D# X& q7 z, c4 ^- U, @! w# ?- ^4 y2 E
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) z7 I9 t1 c# l9 R0 I 6 q+ i9 Z) D6 l+ sUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : W7 c1 T& T; x, j% `0 w4 Q; K2 v3 Y: T! S
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". t$ c+ p$ g& a7 @4 i
+ o( s7 O! }; X* M) M8 X
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # F9 a/ x4 p7 U! Z, R: Z5 j
) H% f8 M; D/ _. e5 J) s' X
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 p) J0 C) J k* X% P 2 P0 d1 V6 ~0 N+ J4 K$ @- T* j3 H$ w"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & T$ L- S$ f" s: h7 R$ W# q 6 j7 _6 n! J7 |' PGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 [$ K8 A1 J3 v& G
0 i8 ?9 n7 n8 {- @* f) B
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
