外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年6 G4 _& F$ C) f @
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞! J9 B9 `4 Q; r% }7 f
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 w, b& w) n) U6 _+ s
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 % q" F2 b; Y+ V$ {+ [ z8 H- F& ^; C6 ^7 r
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 6 l( R3 V0 x* w& i+ x ! H+ A {' c" A6 j, D 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ' V9 y' s& }# w9 O6 }7 l9 q& C x* U) {# h. d8 i! G; @% ?
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 S5 I0 U- [! ^/ x 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & |# b9 @5 s$ M3 E. C- L- M3 g, j7 p* S. r0 Y. _
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 K5 e6 l) ^ x6 I$ n
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 L0 Z- w( _+ I! d/ N7 c3 Q
$ J; `* Z/ s/ U: DBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # z6 g" [3 v+ t8 ~" a ; W" Q q+ t/ y Y! gA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % O8 q# D( _8 r/ w# m
4 X0 @% Q {8 F' ~Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * h* L7 F% F V6 H; {' v " z2 @+ @( Z' v! RAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ r+ O: n' i0 d5 V$ I5 o; n$ L
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ; ?2 ?/ W& b3 n. q 9 Q6 w0 y9 a! @8 S% jFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ; \' Z/ X3 A% s2 Y+ Q7 x% |
* U' y8 M; n, H j: q8 @This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 e% q: ]* V5 o0 [ 8 z- c) w& }2 w1 o1 L- d1 m+ |"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ) w) {+ N3 R& ]" A& `
$ v2 v4 D6 |7 b; ]In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 5 f; q# |6 Y' I/ d! u 3 S- t1 _6 Q1 B4 |$ I& h# j6 }( }Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. - z! Q6 l3 G3 o: u+ J& j & A8 j P$ f5 Y! G' F2 ]/ DThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 1 z( K! D0 w' A4 v1 z: ~4 p & [: G7 ?5 H( C* @6 h3 `Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. : ~4 H, n' f) ?* F4 Q5 w# r& r4 t8 l; ]+ _% _5 t' o1 Y8 q8 O9 V* M0 i: G
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ g' s! N$ g. b" F# ]0 T1 H9 l k1 \- q' n
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / p) n1 S$ } U3 a, u2 }* e) k4 v7 `+ ~% J7 x5 S3 Z
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : ~: }+ B1 a1 t, c4 I7 j 4 F/ _; G& ^$ Q. }3 k- P"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 Y! U, r( Z* O! ~9 V6 r9 M: v
% p3 t6 z2 O1 D4 OGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! V) v& d: W3 U6 \! J
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
