7 |- S" L% V3 |# WRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters. H. u! \8 }. u! T) Z3 X. H# l( [
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. $ m) E/ [& E# r# X! Q5 G+ k' Y& @5 D. h6 g, O& u8 S% w" {# Y
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 3 N1 F! W, y4 |0 ]' [* \/ O! \, f( v* v6 }# {% m
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * C- k6 f/ s6 z/ K" a4 T/ P4 I
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 m: [) A5 ~- M- | c4 M+ _/ |" H" BRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % Y, L0 k" T# R5 L# K
R6 e# U$ k3 F3 c* ~1 u: ZFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # |: ~: Y; w) X' Q9 e' N" v5 [ Y. q
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 Y# `2 B" n2 O5 T) \0 j1 }8 M: O0 c& @/ d- E
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 J8 P, _- _3 p& ?! n9 } 5 |7 D1 | O0 w! n% Z# g# _In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 C' [$ N9 i/ t6 E- a G
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / n( B. H- Z% M8 y8 ^
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! p$ g4 x* v( a8 v( |( U- X& r N& j( ~8 \
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 1 l l( m5 V4 d/ F# r 9 k3 s1 k5 l9 z# ], r- zChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # V/ G. F0 y& B0 w& q
; v6 I1 B- V1 R8 X0 `If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % [5 r( h2 T2 q H' h
, F5 A! h2 W: S, ZInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - \# h6 x/ ^! P1 c; o6 g1 p - _" W) F! |4 \* d"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 6 b/ a- g& ?% r- ?
3 w4 ]5 A6 a w8 { u9 e6 O( pGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " h4 _0 b& S/ B5 w# T . F5 b) c! U p' g% f C1 F* i9 L3 ], ]Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
