6 ^& g, t9 O, p$ a2 v* v& U; X1 J 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。( b' e4 _, }& D* s1 e
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。/ s1 T" K9 R7 s( |. o
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。4 P1 B2 }( S5 s
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。+ N; u$ f% W8 U: V8 m
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。1 U, E1 J* E/ ]: S, n9 n, q
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 3 v+ {5 W+ U# `" T! d, U' ^ 3 u( j4 l# C6 S（责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 o! n6 s* z+ p% z/ l& f0 n ; {3 Y q0 ~1 G- j6 ^Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters4 Q- n( b3 L; K6 [' l+ K
N: _4 t* g9 o0 V" @9 ABEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) w% W6 W3 x' S Z3 Y7 k6 n% l4 U8 [( V/ x2 l
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 }( d: h7 k' W5 R
( g# M. O8 U7 ?: tLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. : @7 i% K3 `9 H( O7 d- w8 r6 B Y6 o6 Q' s# E/ B
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( J8 J, [+ U7 [& R3 |8 V, V' K* I. T$ ]3 [" o2 e9 q4 w
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / k: }: ] D) C9 d0 { 9 A( N5 b; D1 u2 x) ]% Y, \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 t$ ~) v( l8 V8 X. r t # B; y- |1 E- fThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. + d, {- g: Q& k4 M
: I: N9 C- R9 D% S"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ! F1 {: D/ I6 S- ~! N
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % `0 i$ ?, |" n6 x( N0 w. o1 B/ Z; l# T |5 E6 Z" U
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. * o: q. `5 e" V) |: ~ . t5 M- G; [1 q0 L; V R! t& NThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 S7 n7 h) g- u" f o2 N# w1 I+ R- g6 ^) C
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & h% ]. B: q/ I% \) n0 s! ^# {& f! V, k5 H4 t' c! q
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ; S- a6 Y' v5 ~; i% x8 W5 U: S3 i( B& N- c. D
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. }/ o. C5 Q, V
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 S2 p8 R, I" S$ h. X
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 2 s# f8 N. Q s; R
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. + r+ P) E O' j+ C/ t+ W! u! ~4 t; s( l
