外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年7 f+ J6 j4 X5 f5 W/ x
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 5 q( w* [: F" s# P* y) z: f9 b 0 u: G1 f- K2 z- r& K) T5 H! a % J- i: _" W+ G! i1 P3 k9 Y. Y中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ( N) W* M/ v" X; g$ G 7 m" }5 q `* ]3 l0 N) R 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。( E4 @2 ?' H3 R
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。# |! I/ m0 q& X
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。8 u+ h( r; G& U9 n$ p
: a6 e/ @$ }' R 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 . G1 V* E" I. v. N$ ]6 s) _ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 u: b3 n/ w5 f* \: H # E: |: _3 c& Y r1 t( Z 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。4 O7 d' L( V) x3 x8 m5 s! u" o
% Z2 ^- O* g$ x$ M" `0 l （责任编辑：杨海洋）9 H: q% M9 @! S. L
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 g4 R# y8 @; S$ E ) j8 U5 ^( ]/ _! fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 n8 B: r- H8 o3 _# X
5 ~8 {* {" R, X( e$ xA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * f$ |+ l7 e- O' _: E1 e7 c5 \
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 T1 H3 k+ p8 m6 ^+ d3 E2 \
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 u' g, C! ?8 H7 Y; x0 M ' c: ?+ }# ~8 U- u* xRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. J6 O0 R# s1 a: D
6 h5 n; Y) U- [$ J e4 wFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. / {8 k: s( L; z ?; Y6 i& e# @: m" e/ L- D+ B
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : Z! N* ?0 w6 z$ q4 W# p, f' P" A E
2 r& A8 l2 Q% J% H4 ["The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 2 e* t& N" ^, A8 x3 X5 R
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ! F5 `% p7 Z3 X1 q$ Y& P 5 i1 h5 [. w) u) q* CGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 8 r, ^( ^, w4 W/ @% c, X
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 2 B$ T# x. T( u5 _. c 7 m! l- c# C2 B6 k! R6 q" mUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # B$ `: Y) b, B" [1 t
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 7 W& |- K& [0 R# T. x
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . s0 ~! W0 |; j9 C) E; \) o0 z; b / `+ j9 d2 e- ?3 Q3 y6 tInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. - Y, W1 `% z0 r! Q3 B
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : }8 W! t$ ~6 V5 q8 h$ U* _% ~) z/ f4 _& E+ ^
+ {5 d* C# p4 O6 t. T6 a* c7 eGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 8 b$ `9 y, ]" o% K4 ], O ' s5 U. W1 S! P0 L9 R) NThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
