3 j/ {% x1 z& E1 p（责任编辑：杨海洋） 2 r1 _( X( z5 Y; K7 L: A' q" l2 [ U6 K9 n( Z
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 5 U) x4 v) S5 O3 e9 x* j 0 l. v! ]! C8 {' c6 F0 k. E4 jBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - u# H& d' h% Y0 A( g
" i7 t7 r# M# ]% B& L5 w8 yA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . R2 @# c! p$ w& K
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 r8 b) I6 ?$ ^6 V$ O5 p
W3 O d5 P+ ?! h. l8 ~& J0 U0 DAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ! U' M: U+ u+ K; l
9 M+ t% y* j8 y+ ~' @6 b& D [Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 6 [9 x2 W% x3 u$ D6 F i% w 1 y- y* o p, O' H: r! t$ UFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 C8 m: Z$ l$ D( [' ~+ w
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( G9 X4 T9 g. g) L$ g! f+ [1 K' P, x
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ]% {3 f4 d5 U4 g& g$ f$ ^. l& l1 p/ {
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 g+ Q8 P. W' ]) c8 X6 L1 p
' {3 p/ [0 l1 }. m' n3 M5 QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 7 y( x# g3 c3 F4 x% R- N; m+ q
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : E8 R! s3 P6 A- N4 d / Q. i9 W5 l9 p9 qUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " y9 ]) h3 K: }" W/ Y) i, P
$ P/ M. f3 x/ jChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 t& }. U [: O& _. C
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # Q* T- P4 B+ ]. E- h
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. # E( t3 C: e2 _6 k $ m2 V* ?" c) r8 l( ?"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. Y; c, l# q3 K
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 O5 I8 I# ^' O' L, Q- J8 R+ E. f! }, L: [
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
