外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年( ]5 ]8 }' b% \
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 4 V8 s. h5 Q& V3 Q: G [" |* D4 c+ l/ a) ]0 ?3 m L3 R3 t6 t) H$ g, f! e2 Z中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 5 i f4 `1 \0 b; p) L8 B5 K1 p
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。" [% S: b5 ^9 b" D! f
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 $ v8 [4 ?2 n( D. k6 @" Y. C' v: |# d: E4 z+ L, @5 {4 ?
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。- v; e+ Q$ i: g! B4 E+ K
" v. n$ R6 e: v( R- ? 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 {; G2 {9 S, K' b
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。: A( p: t: Z. J* K
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。8 }3 g9 z, z% Z3 Y
: |6 t# _1 p. ^' ` （责任编辑：杨海洋）. {( M- N$ ?( r. b9 h
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters9 H' B. s+ Q' ?; e+ U
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 2 L" K4 r' Q2 s7 L4 o
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 E# g' |/ m" e/ m' `6 l: K1 J- x ) e- W7 h1 G& q" M* }- ?/ CLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 ?. b+ {2 H8 g0 c5 l5 p3 |' b4 {
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # b* g4 }7 V- B, i" N! j. G & _3 j! n- G" B- f6 C4 j; q1 S3 TRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 G3 o3 a. o6 M' V 4 W, U) z0 F# `3 w8 Y' L) kFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( W" V! f7 ~, f! R' c" R) ~+ n1 j6 s+ u" G( [
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' ] j: L, g0 U7 k7 f
# y/ V% e5 L5 [: O: L* N"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ X4 s4 }3 p4 X5 {" g# d, E9 b
6 ?& M! i0 v9 U, I H0 F1 X. TIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 w4 |6 V$ |5 R& t! g6 P' u) l
% C, |: X' I* QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 0 u! i, O0 o9 M6 x# s. a, h% ?3 p R 2 g/ `8 T+ Q" e7 a4 [That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , q9 ^! D8 ^' b) ~4 x % k& u \% p' Q+ l3 h. ~& C7 yUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 U7 C# M' Y {3 w( d/ X
( a/ j8 M+ }2 C* |" w0 Q0 ^China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". # S4 [3 t0 N# Y
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / l; d+ d N4 M7 W- U, Y9 K0 Y5 p# @8 g1 D# @: C
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / F/ t8 D; h- _1 I
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # `) O) F e, @9 F3 t
9 x _2 b9 V! t) J4 HGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' w0 a$ p+ `9 u
