外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 * U7 r! T4 T8 ? i2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞, X) D6 T- b6 L k" e
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。( s9 L8 T$ V8 b9 H7 {: f0 t
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 0 F* n! X; D/ F5 i9 m H5 S( i- ?: N# Z5 ~9 Z. i
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 2 G. @5 u/ J/ F: _8 [3 x! ?0 C G6 `0 t+ H
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。% U3 @; _! Z) _! c' Y/ l
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 " F- q! H4 [& P1 @7 H 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。+ r/ t+ M m8 L2 {0 z
$ b- |$ _& X) }5 p5 C% K) U# O: @ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。+ F- c1 m6 b ?6 T/ _! o* I7 y
4 g( b. \2 O, B0 K% j （责任编辑：杨海洋）& l% F& R. U# U3 ]# Q5 g! P
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters, [ i) S$ _0 }% d" I2 q7 u
0 d G: q ?0 z3 yBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : P g" t6 z9 {5 k. b) A7 P
$ b9 ^- z3 O: }# gA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. : |4 c0 H! Y/ Z" Q7 V4 ~$ p8 J) T 6 e% w+ p6 }6 N* E- Z9 ?Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. - f- e8 F) o& H7 {3 q4 Y+ Y & s2 A( y3 a, u' LAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. l9 b B$ X( ^& P! C9 `8 b- E% W7 G6 X0 J
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 3 [8 q$ o. p3 g" x6 a% Q+ b# X 6 q. P v% q1 C" [2 R! }; _# w; hFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % ]$ `- M! U) i
" P |& k# z+ mThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) f. A6 U% M0 ]+ t5 a8 Z9 Z( L* `, S& k, U
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 0 I+ a5 {: M( V1 Z0 }9 | 2 t- N/ q, @, U. j' j7 dIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : u; [( }. C! [8 b- I+ c9 J1 B2 F- e
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / d; W5 z$ O: z) v7 e: z
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! s' r K8 g3 ~ p 0 ~6 e) ~. Z g' {% cUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + D- i' e, a) w5 N. e+ g1 i 5 u$ P4 D# _9 K I" `: f4 J5 |China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! f1 O3 [' N) |) ^ 8 f% p- r% R8 B9 i) LIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 5 @6 ]7 L+ I+ t) R
- \ |+ J, A& I0 A5 nInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 3 b) M/ }, U* u* `. L) w, s
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 k2 F( p/ ~( f0 @
- C5 y( f6 \( [, a7 {" J9 `Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 1 x' k* a4 j0 g' L 2 t$ z% j4 Y( ~0 L" KThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
