8 K }6 r' i' K) o3 t现吉林省省委书记孙政才很可能最后会升到总理位置上。而内蒙自治区党委书记胡春华有望最后成为国家主席。但是，最后的领导人选举是不透明的。需要经过大约50个和党关系密切的家族的协商和批准。! C( u) i7 u5 m# \8 h$ I5 @( x- R7 S
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中国的官员们说，这是中国走向民主的过程。但分析人士担心，因为这些新领导人的诞生需要得到现有的利益集团中数百人的支持，他们无法得罪任何利益集团，这种过程最后将可能导致寡头政治或政治瘫痪，阻碍中国的政治经济改革、甚至中国的持续发展。0 C2 \+ H" n% { R
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China’s choice of leaders restricts reform March 24 20110 u# {7 C8 t4 Z6 f+ Y
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By Jamil Anderlini, V' |! M+ ^3 K; J- ?0 |7 O( @; u
/ ?' ~7 l6 W: S& h- SHow does the world’s most populous nation and now second-largest economy choose its leaders? ) ~4 ?$ X+ O. J9 S$ A , Z: e0 i! ~- W1 j* g* O, [& |Nobody outside China and few of its 1.34bn people have any idea how the current nine-man panel of sexagenarians with dyed black hair and matching dark suits was really picked to run the country.; a& K6 Y0 k" I- k! V! L
. \5 b" ?. _- y2 f; sFrom the late 1970s, when China began its “reform and opening up”, until now, this was not such a problem. The wily old leader, Deng Xiaoping, left detailed succession instructions before he died in 1997 and everyone in the communist apparatus by and large just followed the plan. ( i4 m4 S0 Y% E; |( O. t3 M2 \1 I- Q, u* Q6 R! o$ n
In 2002, as per Deng’s instructions, the current president, Hu Jintao, took the reins on the understanding that he would only stay for two five-year terms.5 z( k9 V" w: t ^ y3 N5 i
- V& R; h, t1 L5 C8 vBut next year the party will try to carry out the first orderly and peaceful power transition since the communist victory in 1949 that has not been predetermined by a dead emperor./ N8 ^0 @* b* y; Q5 b- @! L4 z
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Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, the two men lined up as president and premier for 2012, are pretty much certain to ascend the dragon throne. ) M# z S, ^( M# k2 I& ^4 j, c- K; T2 J
By many accounts the other seven slots in the ruling standing committee of the politburo of the Communist party of China’s central committee are mostly decided, although the number of seats could be reduced by two and there could still be last-minute surprises. B3 L& h+ ?; g. z K* a* v) r
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The ruling elite has started haggling over who will be China’s subsequent leaders and the most likely frontrunners to take the top jobs as premier and president in 2022 have already emerged.3 p& S3 I; S, R- S
; `, M3 C( Z5 A: c! M0 `# p! PSun Zhengcai, the Communist party secretary of Jilin province, is widely believed to be in line for eventual elevation to the job of premier., v! y/ V/ G/ z8 g8 ]
* x: G; w7 @& Z- b$ p7 GHu Chunhua, or “little Hu” as some irreverently call him, is party secretary of Inner Mongolia but is apparently being groomed as the future president of China.2 h, a7 E; @5 q9 {" S
% u. E& @$ R2 o; UWestern diplomats and savvy businessmen in China spend huge amounts of time and energy trying to identify and cultivate ties with provincial leaders who might eventually take over the country. 4 E, z# R! e0 e5 Y 3 C5 t5 s& V8 V5 D2 d! N6 vFor Mr Hu and Mr Sun, both of whom are in their late forties, their positions as early frontrunners may mean it is already too late to get the good guanxi, or “relationship involving reciprocal favours”, going. 6 B- k# ~2 `( J2 a5 o2 w K( ^* @, f3 ^7 s" K
At the annual meeting of China’s rubber stamp legislature in Beijing this month neither man even bothered to turn up to the plenary sessions of their respective provinces, although dozens of journalists were there to glimpse the anointed ones., @. _. w- @% _" p4 y _0 ]
& s- j7 W" F' a* T' N5 i2 d0 wThat may have been because of their desire to avoid a media circus, or because of orders from party leaders worried that if they build popular public personas too early, they could circumvent the careful succession process the party is trying to institutionalise. 5 f$ |4 c5 j! ]9 o; ?8 J& e% m3 |8 F1 K) @; y4 s+ C7 Q
Even now, outsiders cannot discount the possibility that China’s leaders are actually chosen by consulting the stars, throwing darts at a wall or picking names out of a hat. $ o9 v5 S" a M6 M; V }* i0 Z0 ]# e: ^9 G
But the party does seem to be trying to put in place a system where the candidates for the very top jobs are identified early through a compromise between the leaders of two or three powerful factions. , C' n/ J( k: C% A% O# k p3 W/ ~& b+ E* B
Today, the younger Mr Hu is thought to be a protégé of Hu Jintao, while Mr Sun is seen as being close to ex-president Jiang Zemin’s faction.. L, x; v" z# ^
5 h$ L1 C/ Y( }/ f6 vThe candidates for lesser positions in the standing committee are chosen much later but all, including the senior candidates, must apparently be vetted in a consultative process involving 50 or so powerful party families and an increasingly wide array of political players. + G: j% Y/ b C* t# R3 B+ e: M3 y, a& f' J' j4 S
Chinese officials point to this process of consensus building as a step towards democracy but analysts warn that it could actually lead more towards oligarchy and policy paralysis.; V! i- |" b( w" o$ |1 w6 P
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Their reasoning is simple. Future leaders are now chosen by a couple of hundred people instead of a handful of party elders and most of today’s power brokers are patrons for powerful economic interests. That means the current leaders must not offend too many special interests if they hope to get their people to succeed them. The problem is it also means that the political and economic reforms necessary to keep China stable and growing are increasingly being delayed or watered down.3 ]4 Y( X( e3 t4 o8 W8 R1 e8 }% u# u
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