|
- 积分
- 9514
- 威望
- 3134
- 金钱
- 0
- 阅读权限
- 90
- 性别
- 男
- 来自
- 地球就是我的家
- 在线时间
- 337 小时
|
外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
3 J! ] D$ @5 L+ R. R5 G/ n0 O2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞
! G$ W, H; H9 U1 `; o& D& d W; y1 Q3 f. F
, d# x1 O5 ~: E 0 w0 f" h8 F6 A1 n. \0 o" ^
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
4 A$ z- r( ~+ G0 brs238848.rs.hosteurope.de/ p( Z2 F# x3 e, \" r! n
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。
4 y* ^& t* O+ V! J' v& _1 h) v) f0 c% ?% ]$ ?6 O. ~- S2 \7 V
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。) k% n. J1 N# W8 z
" U4 Q( a# [( y0 |+ A2 g! V" x4 J5 I
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
. u! R! w6 k2 g `! @3 C; ^; M
, ]0 s8 Q& h0 ?$ j7 p/ O' c6 {3 |人在德国 社区 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。9 T6 D. ?7 K5 ?
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。
/ B* k# G- v; d/ i+ B
* A. _% e# q& U+ u! W: s 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
2 t8 N- n* F: r& F0 J( |& g6 g1 b3 t6 `. T+ O3 q0 o$ a
（责任编辑：杨海洋）
* [3 }2 s+ I1 }. P4 H' o ]9 B- w" [* A( b3 J6 L
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters
8 k: E9 g; {" l/ G, P- W6 srs238848.rs.hosteurope.de1 i% ]$ `3 v4 C) J9 r$ g! f1 g% G+ c
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows.
8 U" z4 Y) N6 Y. H9 K! {' g& S/ U8 t" B" I( H B! M
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. + ?! R( Y9 e/ v6 Z" g5 D6 \" b; t
; r$ }9 l( l# K( k; lLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ( t' |! s& O+ S6 y1 [1 N
* r) e& Q/ {6 s. \' M
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China.
. q8 y; v$ V+ u0 \' S0 z
0 w- o" u' O# p" yRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( }9 @# n U, m
- z0 b1 _/ e7 d9 j; s& `, RFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
4 o% ]* P& t: A' r+ K U) W/ n
% z8 b" Z4 |0 c5 q a) oThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers.
u, \7 ]1 ]$ g0 q3 }! i% ]) o6 zrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de
0 w6 K- i) Z6 ]* ]# m3 M* o3 C: o6 }( e( B"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 人在德国 社区9 j* ? Y, X" q( e' X
人在德国 社区# e* N( m! ?9 Z9 c; w- D
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de/ J* c9 Q0 v7 j( J, b' h
- n+ w% B3 A8 h" B' m* v
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
: Z4 A. B, r N& h7 J8 `
4 P* A+ u8 ]5 Q4 t. g' O5 s9 Qrs238848.rs.hosteurope.deThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office.
$ t! Y7 l+ ~# d* p1 L+ `人在德国 社区* t+ x; a$ d" q/ Q
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de% m1 N8 d4 W9 j; O7 H' Q" b
人在德国 社区8 E( @9 y$ c! g* F7 S6 [
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
: a: B5 i+ J& |% [( Vrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de
; i7 d/ o$ P6 x5 t+ i- lIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. & Y, z) M& m5 Z8 A. A% G
9 C* M4 a$ S5 R8 qInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
. x4 m; ^$ z6 \- u
& W6 q/ F( Q% v3 ?( c; N. Zrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 a+ }0 ~/ w% w# f) l$ [9 {
3 ?; ?+ Q* S; O7 J" U' z9 d- M人在德国 社区Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & G! f$ i" K9 X g. S7 `
& W! E; j) N( C8 f8 D* g: ^Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys. |
|
发表于 2010-8-19 07:33
|