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外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, j* r9 F3 ^$ g* c
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞
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4 G; z5 ^! T2 d C% w5 a中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- z" W- M' r& ]
& ~! H9 D. K3 [8 |3 z [人在德国 社区 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。. o$ V1 n1 h' A. H3 o5 L. C
9 K7 K' P4 F( i$ a, M9 A- } k+ Urs238848.rs.hosteurope.de 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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. {2 W( W, I! r* J4 m& trs238848.rs.hosteurope.de 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。
9 o6 h2 H% g \" }& s6 t3 j8 W 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 @% M$ B' x4 E s
, S; c: i4 p3 a 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。& a* B! }8 J1 c- N$ h
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（责任编辑：杨海洋）+ d0 Z$ w. O8 I
5 `! L6 u, G& J6 p8 \0 q! ?' _- u2 ]2 tRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters
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$ i5 |! G! u6 H7 s; QBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. # V" s7 G: ]0 G3 ]9 \1 G. e4 D
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. % {, g& e! ?+ U0 N, O. q: Q
C) P: [( t& h% DLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 人在德国 社区& T$ n- Y1 Y% ?5 h+ j
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! M& s6 f- k' }: l( N/ s6 ]( k
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers.
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ F* M" P4 ]7 k' G7 z! P
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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$ m# {# `5 T9 uThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 0 F8 ?1 p8 n' m9 O+ W& L4 v( }; M
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 人在德国 社区9 P; j3 Y. m4 E$ d9 X3 m
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
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% p6 ^# O: q, j3 O: _International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 人在德国 社区) D1 U/ I- Z. v( X- K
* \- i8 u+ t7 P* D4 K; G; d人在德国 社区"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de$ J& y, J( T+ K' w
* x1 @1 i4 P: Y4 u& u人在德国 社区Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & }8 j) X ?9 T' G
0 [. N3 g5 K! K. OThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys. |
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发表于 2010-8-19 07:33
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