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外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年9 `' Q* A# `0 Q8 p0 M, O
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞
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m- G/ i& _/ f$ v- Y6 Y中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
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1 \0 H1 [% G: Z$ R, Vrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。" N4 L) Y' t# Y( n
; \8 W. ?+ E) w- @+ x* K& q; J 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' n y4 x) m/ @( ?
& U) r9 U9 s5 Z# k% Zrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。$ Q6 b& e7 F6 N1 a7 Z' G- _
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。
0 w% i& ^2 d1 ]0 I z D. W/ n1 Irs238848.rs.hosteurope.de 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters人在德国 社区; U' U& w6 T- g/ \1 O; w& p3 p: @ ^3 u; f1 C
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 x9 d% m; J' m* B) k
8 |- Y6 F' m6 n0 M8 e# {$ k人在德国 社区A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
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6 a8 M* F, }( n, Q E, p$ k. Wrs238848.rs.hosteurope.deAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China.
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* ~" y8 q8 M* z, H! s- ^$ uRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de2 F" R+ G3 h) q" {0 i$ ^
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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* I! G$ W! i+ n* J8 dThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers.
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. - b" Z% d7 \6 J! k& F" r/ Y
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % e& \0 a1 h. ]0 L5 Y
* S1 s/ o, v) L7 g& x8 z, Q8 QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 人在德国 社区4 L4 M9 n* [4 ]! V) |; D/ n
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 6 f' j) N/ F( _0 o% B4 }' y1 Y7 |8 g3 P
1 e, E; a* [- A2 E- @" g3 ]Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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5 Q: n. D) w& {3 Z; u" H0 |. ^9 {China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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; N: u5 D7 Q5 I+ p" c aIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de- c, Z8 }/ `7 ]# d( A
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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$ r) q4 e2 C& L P+ Z人在德国 社区Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
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. a: r4 k j9 m- T人在德国 社区Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys. |
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发表于 2010-8-19 07:33
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