[国际新闻] “中国影子”伴随奥巴马拉美之行

【美国《华尔街日报》3月19日文章】题：中国影子伴随奥巴马拉美之行7 h% p; q6 m( h8 w& V' {

美国总统奥巴马19日开始对拉美地区进行为期四天的访问，目的是重建美国在这个半球的领导地位。眼下，从圣地亚哥到圣保罗，中国在拉美各国的影响力大增。1 b4 D, q* h+ x* {( `

麻烦在于，在从贸易到移民改革的诸多重要领域，奥巴马带给该地区的东西不多。奥巴马将难以在该地区遏制中国。长期以来，美国视拉美地区为自己的后院，这让许多拉美人感到懊恼。5 F5 Z/ j* A4 V8 j6 x5 N. X
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白宫官员称，美国没有在拉美地区与中国展开经济上的对抗。他们表示，此行是为了与巴西等快速发展的市场建立更加密切的联系从而在美国创造就业机会。但随行人员之众———包括四名内阁成员———以及选择在国内预算案讨论迫在眉睫和国际范围内危机四起之际出行充分说明，白宫意识到，拉美国家领导人逐渐转向东方寻求经济机遇，美国在该地区日渐式微。0 T( ~0 R( Z8 c: X6 K/ Z

白宫负责战略沟通的副国家安全事务助理本.罗兹说：“我们对这个地区负有义务，我们不会交出……我们自己的半球，它对于我们无比重要。表明这一点非常符合美国的利益，也符合整个半球的利益。”人在德国社区; h3 w) q2 A$ x& K' V( N) Y7 E0 L
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中国增长迅猛的经济帮助巴西变成了一颗冉冉升起的全球之星。过去人们只知道巴西是一个货币汇率起伏不定的阳光沙滩旅游胜地，而现在的巴西是世界第七大经济体，雷亚尔坚挺而稳固，这主要得益于十年来向中国大量出口铁矿石、大豆等产品。去年，中国超过美国成为巴西商品的最大买家。中国与阿根廷和智利的贸易额也令美国相形见绌。$ R! l% c3 Z# D" l8 w
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美国迄今为止仍是该地区最大的外资源头，卡特彼勒、高露洁等美国公司在当地的子公司占拉美经济的比重远远高于中国企业。更重要的是，墨西哥仍视中国为制造业竞争对手甚于视之为经济伙伴。但在拉美国家领导人几十年如一日竭尽全力满足美国的要求以便进入美国市场和得到美国投资之后，中国正逐步改变这种局面。如今，巴西、智利、阿根廷和秘鲁等农矿产品丰富的国家可以向中国出口而不那么急于讨好华盛顿。

奥巴马也许能成功地使美巴两国更加友好，但深化经济关系恐怕会比较难。

中国利用其雄厚财力保障了来自拉美的石油供应。去年，中国承诺借给盛产石油的委内瑞拉200亿美元，中国企业则获准进入该国的广阔油田。2009年，中国借给巴西100亿美元换来之后的石油供应。

十年前，拉美地区和中国还几乎没有贸易可言。但随着中国出于对原材料的需求前往世界铁矿石主要出口国巴西和世界第一大铜矿出产国智利开辟新市场，情况发生了变化。2000年至2008年间，拉美地区和中国之间的贸易额每年增长高达31%，中国从委内瑞拉和阿根廷等国抢购石油、矿石等资产。6 G: U! U9 C4 h. z y

中国与该地区的贸易协议也在增加。中国在2005年与智利签订自由贸易协定，这是它与亚洲以外国家签署的头一份。2 0 0 9年，中国与秘鲁———该国领导人努力多年希望与美国签订自由贸易协定但始终未如愿———签订类似条约，去年又与哥斯达黎加签约。
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中国主要着重于贸易而不是投资。但最近的交易表明情况在改变。中国自去年11月以来在阿根廷购买了超过110亿美元的资产，包括西方石油公司和英国石油公司的业务部门。中国还在巴西花差不多同样数目的钱购买采油权，花了18亿美元买下巴西的7个电网。 ' H9 S/ W v( r+ ], Q

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President Obama, on a five-day trip to Latin America, with Chile's president, Sebastián Piñera, on Monday in Santiago.

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China Shadow Follows Obama in Latin Trip
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President Barack Obama begins a four-day Latin American tour Saturday with the aim of re-establishing U.S. leadership in the hemisphere at a time when China's clout is rising fast from Santiago to São Paulo.人在德国社区- Z6 r: C/ ^$ X
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The trouble is, Mr. Obama, who meets with Brazil's new President Dilma Rousseff Saturday in Brasilia and will also visit Chile and El Salvador, brings little to offer the region in key areas from trade to immigration reform.
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Mr. Obama will have trouble checking China in a region the U.S. has long considered—to many Latin Americans' chagrin—its backyard. 人在德国社区2 N( L8 f3 o7 f7 k8 r6 D

White House officials say the U.S isn't facing off economically with China in Latin America. They cast the trip as a bid create U.S. jobs by linking more closely to fast-growing markets like Brazil. But the president's large entourage—including four cabinet members— and the trip's timing amid a pressing budget debate and multiple international crises underscores an awareness in the White House the U.S. has lost ground there as Latin leaders turn East for economic opportunity.

"It's very much in the United States' interest, in the hemisphere's interest, for us to signal that we're committed to the region and that we not...cede...our own hemisphere, which is incredibly important to us," said Ben Rhodes, the White House deputy national security adviser for strategic communications.

China's fast-growing economy has helped transform Brazil into a rising global star. Once known more as a sunny beach destination with a volatile currency, Brazil is now the world's seventh-largest economy and boasts a strong, steady real, thanks largely to a decade of soaring exports of iron ore, soy and other goods to China. Last year, China surpassed the U.S. as the biggest buyer of Brazilian goods. China also eclipses the U.S. in trade in Argentina and Chile.人在德国社区  Z: j2 W& R. B/ Q

Suddenly, the U.S. is seeking out Brazil in important global debates. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who is traveling with Mr. Obama, flew to Brasilia last month to lobby for support in persuading China to let its currency appreciate, a move Mr. Geithner says is essential for putting the global economy on sound footing. Chinese officials are doing the same: pressing Brazil to criticize the U.S. for letting the dollar weaken. So far, Brazil has not taken a side, preferring to criticize both countries' currency policies.
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"The courtship of Brazil by the U.S. and the other great power, China, is quickly becoming an important theme in international economics," said Eswar Prashad, a Cornell University economist and former head of the China program at the International Monetary Fund.
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The U.S. is still by far the biggest source of foreign investment in the region, and local units of U.S. companies from Caterpillar to Colgate-Palmolive have a far bigger share of the Latin American economy than Chinese firms. What's more, Mexico still sees China more as a competitor in manufacturing than an economic partner.
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But after Latin leaders for decades bent over backwards to meet U.S. demands for access to U.S. markets and investment, China is rebalancing the equation. These days, commodity-rich countries such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Peru that export to China are less motivated to please Washington.
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"The Chinese are newcomers to the region but they are gaining experience fast and should not be underestimated," said Anthony Root, a partner at the law firm Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCoy who helped China negotiate the purchase of power grids in Brazil.
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Brazil, for instance, didn't like the terms of a U.S.-proposed hemispheric free trade pact and blocked it in 2005. Brazil also helped derail a U.S.-proposed global trade deal at the World Trade Organization. Brazil has also criticized U.S. use of Colombian military bases. Signaling Brazil's global ambitions, the country teamed with Turkey last year in a failed bid to head off U.S.-backed sanctions against Iran's nuclear program.

Mr. Obama's trip marks an effort to reverse the trend by forging a warmer relationship. The first black U.S. president is immensely popular in Brazil, which shares a history of slavery with the U.S., Mr. Obama plans to visit a poor Rio de Janeiro shanty town and make a major speech. Meantime, Ms. Rousseff, a former Marxist guerrilla in her third month in office, has signaled a desire for a less contentious U.S. relationship.

"It's a bit of a paradox because of her radical past, but [Ms. Rousseff] appears to be free from the ideological bias and the elements of anti-Americanism that badly affected the relationship during the Lula years," said Roberto Abdenur, a former Brazilian ambassador to the U.S.
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Mr. Obama may succeed in putting the U.S on friendlier terms with Brazil, but deepening the economic relationship may be a tougher gambit. U.S. officials say they want more access to Brazil's economy for U.S. exports. But Mr. Obama isn't likely to get far, considering the U.S. restricts imports of Brazilian steel, beef, orange juice, sugar and other goods in order to protect U.S. industries.rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de8 H( Y4 i8 Q, J0 Y) y4 b

Mexico, which has been lobbying for immigration reform for years, also wants Washington's help in stopping the flow of assault weapons and guns that end up in the hands of Mexican drug cartels, fueling violence south of the border. But there has been little progress on both issues owing to political disagreements in the U.S. Congress.人在德国社区) t- @  G( w2 A. J

"The president really has significant challenges to deliver on the issues that matter most to Latin America," said Ted Piccone, who covered the region on President Bill Clinton's National Security Council and is now deputy director for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "These issues run smack into very difficult domestic concerns here in the United States."

In Chile, a copper rich economy which has free trade with both the U.S. and China, Mr. Obama plans a major speech on the importance of the U.S.-Latin American relationship. In El Salvador, where the political descendents of an anti-U.S. 1980s rebel group recently came to power via the ballot box, Mr. Obama's visit will also be mainly about symbolism: Burying the past.

Mr. Obama is likely to unveil a $1 billion credit line to finance U.S. companies working on Brazilian infrastructure, including preparations for the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio, U.S. officials say. By contrast, China's state-owned banks are unleashing much larger sums directly to Latin American firms and governments in a strategy to gain access to key Latin industries.+ ]' w7 C/ H6 s0 ^  i
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China has used its deep pockets to secure Latin oil supplies. Last year, China promised to lend oil-rich Venezuela $20 billion as part of a deal to give Chinese firms access to its vast fields. In 2009, China lent Brazil $10 billion in exchange for future oil shipments.

A decade ago, Latin America and China barely traded. But that changed as China's need for raw materials led it to seek new markets such Brazil, the world's biggest iron ore exporter, and Chile, the world's biggest copper producer. Between 2000 and 2008, trade between Latin America and China grew at an astonishing 31% annual rate, while China snapped up oil, mining and other commodity assets from Venezuela to Argentina.rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de& A/ H& O; \# j% m. u/ y. c8 a' N# o) C
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Coincidentally, a generation of leaders skeptical of the U.S. came to power in countries like Brazil who were eager to diversify trade ties and assert independence. Meantime, pro-U.S. leaders in countries like Mexico began complaining that Washington was neglecting the region as it became engrossed in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.' H9 R3 O: O9 g: }

Two countries that Mr. Obama won't visit this time, Panama and Colombia, are telling. Both countries are among the region's closest U.S. allies. The U.S. backs Colombia with anti-drug aid. Panama, which was essentially created by the U.S. as part of canal building efforts, uses the U.S. dollar as its currency. But free-trade agreements negotiated under former President George W. Bush haven't even been submitted to Congress yet. Rather than turn up empty handed, Mr. Obama is avoiding both nations altogether.7 K. G9 ?7 i4 }! @+ w5 |

China, meanwhile, is drawing up plans with Colombia to build an alternative to the Panama Canal that would link ports on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts by rail. The plan calls for Colombia to send raw materials to China and in return receive goods for assembly and export. China is Colombia's second biggest trade partner after the U.S.人在德国社区! E: |4 |1 z# l! c' J9 |  q- `4 d
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China is also amassing regional trade deals. China's 2005 free trade agreement with Chile was it's first-ever with a non-Asian country. In 2009, China signed a similar pact with Peru—where leaders have been hoping in vain for a similar deal with the U.S for years—and made a deal with Costa Rica last year.

China has focused mainly on trade, rather than investment. But recent deals show that's changing. Chinese firms bought more than $11 billion in assets in Argentina since November, including business units from Occidental Petrochemical Corp. and British Petroleum. China has spent a similar amount in Brazil purchasing oil rights and a $1.8 billion purchase of seven Brazilian power grids.

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