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外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
' n( v5 h0 O& [7 V* Drs238848.rs.hosteurope.de2010年08月19日 14:15 来源:中新社 黄瑞
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2 `9 O! @- N' s* x& q; X A$ p4 s人在德国 社区中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。, `3 f5 G: s. U0 o: Z( u* w
7 z O; F# d: \1 r 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。& k: t% E( E# z- L. W/ }
! C! }2 W4 @ D, Y1 G5 h6 A 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。& ~5 w. Q8 S/ K9 f6 I% ^1 `
* V, Q& [8 l) r' {9 O7 K3 v 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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7 w) }. C) j: `: x5 W 金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。$ P9 o; @6 J7 I( t; c
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。- W5 Z9 u8 }4 S$ L
7 W; {) q6 h0 e! q8 @: \# drs238848.rs.hosteurope.de 比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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(责任编辑:杨海洋)
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reutersrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de% W$ w1 b# j9 m" {9 _, ?
8 a8 _7 [3 T& O" LBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. / h& r+ J3 J. \
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de v$ ^8 P5 g0 n! ^9 H( U
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 Z) N' n& J7 W: ^
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( ^* J1 {7 k8 U; g& O4 S% u7 G
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers.
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. . ^4 w4 n8 I3 ~6 V" n1 _
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " H9 r: ^) ^0 U; N8 t! Q
/ Y2 V" a7 v# P4 t0 ^; F: AThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office.
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 p* }& X) @) F0 y5 S( M5 i! E
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". : O5 j0 v! ^2 [% _2 o% m
5 ^: n0 X; j1 C# T0 s, hIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
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/ [# L- G) K& _- ~& Q"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 5 e" L1 A3 f u9 ~/ ]5 @5 F
! v2 N9 E, {" k" jGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( ]$ }! H5 d0 x* {+ ]* ?( T% c
- ~. @& C5 M( @2 ?* LThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys. |
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