[中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
% f/ J; w$ f' r  w, A2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞人在德国 社区( \. R" W% d% m( ^2 D' k$ [4 L0 ]
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
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( H! [% Q/ l2 f& q" L  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。$ {: g6 i6 r1 L2 Z& d
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  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
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  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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* @! P/ k3 O* X2 [9 }5 \# \) |  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。0 U  g+ U1 n$ E7 H7 F- [3 O5 k. Y
  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。% d* A1 {6 z2 B

, ?; r3 g8 P4 P2 a人在德国 社区  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reutersrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de9 O1 }3 v# B' `$ t- |# s9 V5 K
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows.
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6 q4 y; A( h( v% P/ f) Z! _  H人在德国 社区A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : N5 @8 [$ A2 s! |* @6 V" G% Q
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 o# h$ Y* E" l# ]* u0 Y8 h- l" v

# W& B) G; s$ M2 W5 dFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) M% k: J" Q4 d6 _
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 s1 a9 y* w5 g

0 d( E' t* Y3 l9 d& h4 E2 d1 W' }% Srs238848.rs.hosteurope.de"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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* u5 l. Q* o( U+ ^  a人在德国 社区In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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6 X, J2 L! A2 r  m5 DThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. , V3 P6 \! A" O; }
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 人在德国 社区6 y( X; V. o& p+ e6 X- Q
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 M6 D1 R# J8 d. x3 z% [% R8 i! K
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.   F9 Y4 q9 c: O+ H" u* I1 M8 X

" j- ~0 S9 R; ?4 N8 _$ P6 _人在德国 社区Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.

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