[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社黄瑞
" X4 o% c2 u3 v/ P) ^9 p2 y

中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。

　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。

　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。

　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。8 T9 a0 {+ E  E3 {% n% X7 `
! \) R# ]+ R6 ?8 F7 D
　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de- \; F4 g: V, ]+ X; _1 k# g
　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。
7 L: R2 u% Q! j+ X! A
　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。7 l4 [  I8 {: a4 U3 d
rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de- f8 V0 a* F# z$ h- e7 t. R
（责任编辑：杨海洋）1 M' k* X; S$ t5 e3 z
人在德国社区+ }' C$ @& T, [! L* E
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters8 u" ]# r9 e# e

BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 i" H6 ?8 p  G  K- _; e

A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 o! [. L% e$ l

Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.

After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 }: J# d. B- \$ i' _. z! u

Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 人在德国社区' \! {# \. h7 F1 ?- j

First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % H9 R4 Q  t& _  t/ F! n
7 {2 C$ }: h9 M
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) M3 n) w: D8 s6 A' k, d; ^
rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de$ u! J" {8 a" S+ a  ^' F6 P5 q: K
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 人在德国社区; V. T& Y# D8 T4 d/ l
. z! T/ x& Z/ ~$ p
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 7 p) z: X3 t, ]! \- w  B

Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
人在德国社区3 \5 V. @) E; s
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 人在德国社区2 V2 a* Y0 X0 T) o2 f5 P

Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # Z# c$ l+ @7 S/ m2 q+ p+ z/ X6 ?
3 \2 U  v$ X4 R; J" q
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".

If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.

International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. . Y# n0 ]& D# M
! G7 {) v& ]0 r: W- ~$ F
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de$ b2 N: V8 d; b, W( \- A
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
' i& x; v' R* M
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.