[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de, t) a9 r+ G( v6 F) y( o* M, r
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社黄瑞

; l- @  L% C/ F& M( r# b7 J' l1 l
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de! n% F# s! I  R3 [  h2 y
　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de4 I4 a9 Z6 {* O, c& ^# a) r; F
" k% @' j; ^$ D$ x
　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。人在德国社区! d# K+ F' {9 f4 N) e
" k4 y9 k( w% k2 F  P- ~
　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。

　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。
　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5 d& l4 P3 y' w* `% W0 e8 a2 w& U

　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。

（责任编辑：杨海洋）
rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de; Y' }1 P4 N* l; @
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters

BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & \3 ?  I/ h; r5 S6 n

A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
# g: ]7 F; w3 g
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
9 [7 }, u' M4 V1 y+ _: Y; x: `; Y. d
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % Q+ P6 C  i/ q' e# B$ e
; Z4 J; @0 A, d! U8 ?+ C* A- X
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / O; ~, z  P1 A2 A; Q" Y8 m+ }
% S) S) r7 K8 {) G9 e
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
) t6 Z# y0 P- s% V" f2 C
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 0 P) G9 a9 q( I* ~/ o2 [

"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
1 w8 A0 Q3 ~& T0 F4 M! R' B
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 c  D, Q1 }$ }( p8 x1 W" J0 x

Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 人在德国社区8 y- D* x+ j0 o) t! M2 F
. Q6 @: |0 K6 V+ ~' N" B$ d
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 7 n$ `1 u- d' L8 [7 Z4 u5 u, i
- D; E* i+ O) o
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 S8 H, o) E. O7 V
2 G5 q9 T- e) F5 U
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".

If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.

International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. / U, F1 U. L6 T  h$ }# u, n

"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
5 S) o, R# X( e) K  I
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ; V& r) o% M' L: L! S

Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.