[中国新闻] 中国经济:与公牛赛跑

外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
' q+ x3 ], ^9 G6 E2 o7 G, k8 B7 d2010年08月19日 14:15   来源:中新社   黄瑞rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de/ X. B1 d4 M0 q0 K4 P
+ C- |& ^. |& ]

. E. s! r8 Z# V$ e" C中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。& Q  a- K' s0 D3 G  L5 [# O

/ [/ B4 b) P6 u* [  华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。
+ L* d  R1 U2 z" }6 ~5 P: N! Zrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de
5 Z  a* E; g/ F7 o  英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
, D3 }* q( Z7 x% a3 irs238848.rs.hosteurope.de6 m. z0 J# a$ v  V, J# l& S
  在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
8 B) Y1 e: y! g- j) _+ Z& hrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de
9 T2 {: O9 G) P人在德国 社区  金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。0 z& Q6 {/ d3 w/ z
  华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。人在德国 社区* N! g! A6 d# |1 w; i; [4 `

7 T" J# C+ E3 @+ \# Z  比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
4 }' s8 K7 p; [5 u. @rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de& X: v+ X  B$ r8 L
(责任编辑:杨海洋)
+ F+ J8 p$ Q/ X" [" wrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de1 F# M1 M( G/ H
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters
6 R$ q/ p3 s& ~3 s' f9 F人在德国 社区rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de, m$ [" z0 A: J5 }1 E- Y6 e
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. + R8 g) b, j9 R6 e$ v
人在德国 社区0 Y( o; w3 V, e5 W- X
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ! M. `, A+ Z: h( r0 S
rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de) D7 |. A/ R! T( L5 x$ T2 U- u* `" v
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de4 ~3 m/ O: q0 N, O
$ i6 o1 m9 {% F$ ~
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 人在德国 社区3 u1 B9 R! X. F

3 [+ W- L( u. ~Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. % h( H9 Z6 Q9 R  |; g# v
人在德国 社区' Q- F9 t' Q/ F8 S
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 O' t7 P$ y4 G( o" [+ f0 A

0 m8 e' `! d. c9 K% ]+ l2 NThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. " }$ L7 O" \3 c; S& x  I5 i

6 V. p$ G! d% e5 Q2 A; F"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. . K3 \* z- Z8 e' ?" M

0 Q; h6 X7 H2 Z# T" F! h7 \7 u9 KIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de9 D6 z/ _( M1 o; _; P3 n0 g% g9 q& ^

; K& Y. s' J9 q/ l2 k1 wGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 人在德国 社区: M- [% ^4 H- ~; J4 e
$ P/ v5 ]. t4 j
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / W/ T9 r, t5 i1 Y5 S

  a' [6 l& z8 ~! UUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de5 Z) u& E8 S: X5 W8 M: N, X: L

' q6 P2 k0 l6 m2 F2 bChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 人在德国 社区' U* |1 d5 p) J# r* S
rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de" R2 W. ?2 g* b# K- J$ R% I
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
& _" F  B$ K  W% X; G0 k) J9 Qrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de2 s  o; Q/ H+ v! L; g
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
/ _9 X# {- s5 K
( ~9 [+ L4 [% i5 srs238848.rs.hosteurope.de"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de8 y0 B5 ?& J- `1 M
人在德国 社区6 k0 s0 h! {; b+ }
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
( y/ n6 p( s: x( l# {7 G# W8 j$ V5 f  m
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.
Share |
Share

欢迎光临原创板!
欢迎发帖
今年德中不发帖,要发就发原创帖!!
不是寂寞才发帖,只因发帖不寂寞!
哥发的不是帖,是寂寞!

TOP

欢迎光临原创板!
欢迎发帖
今年德中不发帖,要发就发原创帖!!
不是寂寞才发帖,只因发帖不寂寞!
哥发的不是帖,是寂寞!

TOP