[经济金融] 日本与德国：谁前景更光明？

日月光

日本的经济停滞始于资产价格的崩溃，而德国的经济停滞则是由东西德统一而引起。在这两个国家，拙劣的经济政策都导致糟糕的局势雪上加霜。6 G8 ?* E9 X( y& V# v7 B

5 e, \' G9 X6 o1 L3 V* u3 ?1 M# n　　日本和德国都从悬崖边上走了回来。上周，德国统计局确认，2006年国内生产总值(GDP)取得了2.5%的可观增长，是2000年以来的最高增幅。日本2006年的GDP增长数字可能要稍逊一筹，预计该年度GDP增长率接近2%。# E+ ]5 @0 M. x, V
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　　在这两个国家中，德国目前显然是全球投资者眼中的宠儿。从它受欢迎的绝对程度，以及相对于日本的受欢迎程度考虑，投资者的这种乐观有道理吗？我听到的最有意思的分析，来自华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)高级研究员亚当.普森(Adam Posen)。他也是为数不多在这两个国家问题上都堪称专家的人之一。与流行的看法相反，他认为日本经济复苏远比德国稳固。在一本即将出版的有关德国的新书中*，他指出，德国政经体制比日本约束更大。他认为，德国的潜在经济增长率不足1.5%，而日本约为2%。他得出结论说，政治经济学家把德国和日本混为一谈是错误的。rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de2 D* t6 y8 L( [0 s7 q$ N

3 H3 x5 V* @1 ?7 c' T1 ]. c　　他对德国心存怀疑，对日本却较为乐观，原因何在？他给出了四点原因。第一，德国在商业和银行业领域存在深层结构问题。然而，到目前为止，各项改革都集中在劳动力或养老金方面，而在日本，改革主要是金融市场和企业治理方面的。第二，德国从未采取过限制性的货币和财政政策，因为其增长问题主要是结构上的；在日本，20世纪90年代的衰退主要是由于宏观经济政策失误。第三，日本社会的格局是政府力量强大、民间力量薄弱，因此改革得以推行；在德国，情况却相反。而且，与德国不同，日本的公司治理和银行业政策有益于大公司和大银行。普森指出，结果就是，日本取得了创新和规模经济，而德国却遭遇他所称的“发展停滞”(arrested development)。& X% q* I4 B0 p* U* X1 X1 K, e

/ p6 p8 [# c/ R8 M( f　　比较天真的一些投资者和经济学家认为，德国的“哈尔茨四号”(Hartz IV)劳动市场改革已经收到成效，取得了更高的经济增长。甚至有人谈到，这是一个新的经济奇迹。  \, T! n* M) y  F3 \; Q+ K  ^

3 z/ f. q6 f# `3 m　　而真相是，德国正经历周期性上升，而去年可能是目前这个周期的最高峰。尽管GDP增长率不错，但该经济体的内需（GDP减去净出口）增幅较低，仅1.7%。rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de" `! N% t5 L9 H( f9 R; w0 }
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　　最令人吃惊的统计数字，是股东和工人去年分享经济果实的情况。2006年的实际工资增长了1.3%，2005年为下降0.7%。不过，继2005年增长6.2%之后，2006年的企业利润更是令人难以置信地增长了6.9%。自2000年以来，出现了一种有利于企业利润的巨大结构转变。在20世纪90年代期间，很多年份的工资增速要快于利润增速，也有很多年份相反。尽管利润与工资之间的分配总是存在波动，至少在长期内，两者之间会趋于均等。但目前这种向利润倾斜的的变化，规模之大，不同寻常，持续时间之长，也比较罕见。
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　　对投资者来说，这是个好消息；对德国工人来说，则是个坏消息。但对德国经济是坏消息吗？有观点认为，德国加入欧元体系时，其兑换汇率估值过高，而且自那以后提高了相对竞争力。如果这种看法正确，那我们将可预期，劳动力/利润的分配将回归均值。但我怀疑这一现象近期是否会发生。6 s- r! R# E0 I* P+ ]0 u* D( A
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　　德国经济研究机构Ifo研究所主席汉斯-韦尔纳•辛恩(Hans-Werner Sinn)提出了另一个更危言耸听、更具争议的理论。他认为，德国是个“杂货店经济体”，它的工业生产和生产前工作被外包出去，其中大部分到了中、东欧和亚洲地区，而德国国内工业只剩下最后的组装工厂。他认为，德国的出口成功是虚弱而非强盛的表现。如果他的理论正确，那么德国将适宜投资而非居住。
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& I  s+ j8 I+ y$ [　　我也不确定这是否属于正确的分析。至少，现在还没有足够的实证证据提供验证。无论如何，德国统一后的经济表现，可以说目前还未得到充分理解。
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　　我们对日本的理解稍好一些。经济学家或许会质疑日本新首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的经济改革承诺，但日本至少已经进行了正确的改革——既包括结构改革，也包括货币和财政政策改革。
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: J1 V7 H3 S# a6 K　　相比之下，德国主要依靠成本节约战略，但并没有改革其陈旧的薪资决定机制，没有打破其能源领域的卖方市场局面，没有将它的地区国有储蓄银行和公开上市的州银行私有化。我不怀疑德国最终将会做出正确的选择，但在改革方面，日本目前领先于德国。因此，有理由认为日本的长期经济前景比德国明朗。
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　*《富国的改革与增长：德国》，彼得森国际经济研究所，即将出版。（译者/何黎）

日月光

Japan’s future looks brighter than Germany’s
2 q8 l1 _% W' V; k5 e3 r" c4 m  t人在德国 社区By Wolfgang Munchau Published: January 14 2007 19:02 | Last updated: January 14 2007 19:02 Japan’s stagnation began with an asset price crash; Germany’s was brought on by unification. In both cases, lousy economic policies made a bad situation worse.   
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Japan and Germany are both back from the brink. Last week, Germany’s statistics office confirmed that gross domestic product had expanded by a respectable 2.5 per cent in 2006, the highest rate since 2000. The headline figures for Japan in 2006 are going to be a little worse. Annual GDP growth for the calendar year 2006 is estimated to be approximately 2 per cent.    ( n. w* D& I# f+ ]- W
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Of the two countries, Germany is currently the clear favourite among global investors. Is this optimism justified, in absolute terms and relative to Japan? One of the most interesting analyses I have heard is from Adam Posen, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, and one of the few people who can claim to be an expert on both countries. Contrary to popular opinion, he regards the Japanese economic recovery as far more solid than Germany’s. In a forthcoming book on Germany*, he argues that the German political economy is more constraining than Japan’s. He puts Germany’s potential output at less than 1.5 per cent and Japan’s at about 2 per cent, and concludes that the tendency of political economists to lump Germany and Japan together is mistaken.    ! l$ q# u3 j6 i$ T  m8 x+ v& x& h
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( [% ^& {" E, t1 C% o5 uWhat are the reasons for his scepticism about Germany and optimism about Japan? He gives four. First, Germany has deep structural problems in the business and banking sectors. Yet most reforms to date were in labour or pensions, while in Japan they were primarily in financial markets and business governance. Second, Germany has never had restrictive monetary and fiscal policy, as its growth problems are primarily structural; in Japan, the slowdown in the 1990s was mostly due to bad macroeconomic policies. Third, Japan has a strong state and weak civil society so reforms could be pushed through; in Germany, the opposite is true. And, unlike Germany, Japan’s corporate governance and banking policies reward big companies and banks. As a result, Mr Posen argues, Japan got innovation and economies of scale, whereas Germany suffered what he calls “arrested development”.   * l+ d% x1 e: B, J9 z6 I* g

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" u. x5 v) c" mThe consensus among some of the more impressionable investors and economists about Germany is that the Hartz IV labour market reforms are already paying off in terms of higher economic growth. There is even talk about a new economic miracle.   The simple truth is that Germany is going through a cyclical upswing. Last year was probably the peak of the current cycle. Yet, while the GDP growth rate was good, the economy managed only a modest increase in domestic demand ? GDP minus net exports ? of 1.7 per cent.   
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9 J* J5 @1 _! BThe most startling statistic is how last year’s bounty was shared between shareholders and workers. Wages went up by 1.3 per cent in real terms ? after a 0.7 per cent decline in 2005. But profits went up by an incredible 6.9 per cent in 2006, and this after a 6.2 per cent rise in 2005. Since 2000, we have observed a large structural shift in favour of profits. During the 1990s, there were years in which wages grew much faster than profits, and vice versa. While the distribution between profits and wages was always volatile, at least it was mean-reverting over long periods. The current shift towards profits has been both unusually large and persistent.   人在德国 社区: n9 g  [) W, O+ ^

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2 P% b+ G6 I: U) P: KThis is good news for investors and bad news for German workers. But is it bad news for the German economy? One argument is that Germany entered monetary union at an overvalued exchange rate and has since improved its relative competitiveness. If this view were correct, one would expect the labour/profit share to return to mean-reverting behaviour. I doubt that this is going to happen soon.   
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Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo economics institute, has put forward another, far more alarming and controversial, theory. He believes that Germany is a bazaar economy, in which industrial production and pre-production are outsourced, mostly to central and eastern Europe and Asia, while domestic industries are reduced to final assembly plants. He argues that the German export success is a sign of weakness, not strength. If his theory were correct, Germany would be a great country to invest in but not to live in.    5 R1 f+ d! K! s; i+ U! P4 g1 O
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8 O5 Q; @* R# a- ^( n( m1 AI am not sure whether this is a correct diagnosis either. At least, there is not yet enough empirical evidence to validate it. In any case, it is fair to say that Germany’s post-unification economic performance is not fully understood at this point.   We have a slightly better understanding of Japan. Economists may question the commitment to economic reforms by Shinzo Abe, the new prime minister. But Japan has at least undertaken the right kinds of reform, both structural and in monetary and fiscal policy.   
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5 q. B' s' W2 i$ N" ?Germany, by contrast, has relied mainly on a cost-cutting strategy. But Germany is not reforming its archaic wage-setting mechanisms, it is not breaking up its energy oligopolies and it not privatising its Sparkassen and Landesbanken (publicly owned banks). I have no doubt that Germany will eventually do the right thing, but Japan is currently ahead of Germany in terms of reforms. It is therefore rational to consider Japan’s long-term economic prospects as brighter.
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9 X& K- F; s5 a! V) s# {; B2 b9 Lrs238848.rs.hosteurope.de*Reform and Growth in a Rich Country: Germany, Peterson Institute, forthcoming
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[ 本帖最后由 日月光 于 2007-2-2 11:50 编辑 ]