[国际新闻] 美巴关系恶化求助中国: Dear China: Help Us Fix Pakistan

美国和巴基斯坦的关系因美军擅闯巴境击毙本-拉登恶化，双方爆发“口水战”。美巴关系出现严重裂痕之际，美国《外交政策》杂志发表文章呼吁华盛顿与中国合作，借助中国对巴基斯坦的影响力，帮助美国修补美巴关系。

综合媒体5月11日报道，“基地”组织头目本·拉登在巴基斯坦被美军击毙后，美巴两国一直龃龉不断。巴方指责美国侵犯主权，威胁不再与美国进行反恐合作；美国则指责巴国存在包庇拉登的“支持网络”，要求解释拉登为何得以藏匿在巴国军事重镇长达五年之久，巴方称情报失误是国际社会责任，不应由巴一方全部承担责任。 rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de" |& }- C7 e+ D# a+ e  ^* f

巴基斯坦媒体9日突然披露了据称是美国中央情报局在巴负责人的姓名。虽然美国中情局对此事作了低调处理，但美国舆论大哗，一些美国媒体10日认为，这是巴基斯坦对美国展开的“报复”，并认为此事已显现出两国情报人员的互不信任。

报道称，美国和巴基斯坦的关系最近两天更趋恶化，正在滑向历史最低谷。9 q* T' ?# z. d7 s. z
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美国《外交政策》杂志发表题为：《中国：帮助我们修复与巴基斯坦关系》（Dear China: Help Us Fix Pakistan）的文章，呼吁华盛顿与中国合作，借助中国对巴基斯坦的影响力，帮助美国修补美巴关系，文章摘译如下：

在华盛顿，共和与民主两党的国会议员都愤怒地质疑巴基斯坦政府的可信性，要求停止对巴基斯坦的援助，因为本.拉登的藏身处是巴基斯坦的军事重镇，巴基斯坦国内必定有包庇拉登和恐怖主义的网络，奥巴马政府敦促彻查此事，希望查明巴基斯坦政府有否为拉登提供保护。人在德国社区- t5 {$ m" `  P! i' \

而在伊斯兰堡，巴基斯坦总理吉拉尼公开抨击美国的言论，否认包庇拉登，并称如果相信巴基斯坦政府与基地组织同流合污是“没有诚意”的行为。他又警告美国如果再在境内单方面采取行动，巴方会作出报复。美国就重申仍需要巴基斯坦合作反恐，不过不会为美国在巴基斯坦单方面军事行动而道歉。

文章认为，无论如何，现在美国在南亚和中东地区的战略政策正处于变化的阶段，但什么才是华盛顿恢复与巴基斯坦稳定关系的最佳方法呢？答案是：与中国合作。2 ^6 r, A" C, t. |

不幸的是，此项议题在国会山辩论时迅速陷入二极化和短视的局面。在美国参议院外交关系委员会听证会的最后一周，民主党和共和党的议员们均希望藉着本.拉登的死讯加速美军从阿富汗撤离的计划。其他议员则呼吁直接对伊斯兰堡采取行动，打击在巴基斯坦境内的反美武装分子基地。人在德国社区  R- ]5 _( h; v) f/ ]# U: L

但这两种方法似乎都不可行。自1989年后，美国第三次放弃阿富汗只会令当地再次出现不稳定局面，事实上，每当美国忽略阿富汗时，当地的情况往往会变得更糟糕。rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de$ I8 @5 o" ]% c* n& f& k) c
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另一方面，强硬的态度也不会奏效，暂停对巴基斯坦的军事或人道援助不能迫使伊斯兰堡政府改变其政策，毕竟在当地，对美国政府的不信任情绪已植根数十年。而且如果巴基斯坦当地局势不稳，有可能为基地组织及其分支建立根据地提供机会，这与美国政府的意愿背道而驰。- f, e, o5 w% q5 e0 V

此外，由于美国还需要继续依赖巴基斯坦为在阿富汗美军提供补给和提供反恐情报，因此在现阶段与巴基斯坦政府摊牌和反目极为不智。而且，如何回收美军海豹突击队在打击拉登行动时坠毁的直升机也十分重要。  [. i1 o# d9 w; }) ?
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军事专家普遍认为，行动中坠毁的是美军新研发的隐形直升机，属于高度机密类武器。如果美国停止向巴基斯坦提供援助，巴基斯坦很可能会采取报复行动，将直升机的残骸交给第三国家，而最有机会获益的将会是与巴基斯坦关系良好的中国。 rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de; c. N- u8 ?, z" b( a- N# s
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如果中国得到美军隐形直升机残骸，那意味着在两三年的时间内，人们将看到中国自行建造的隐形直升机。rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de! \+ e. v. N1 D

文章认为，基于中美这两个世界最大经济体有着唇齿相依的关系，而中国又正是巴基斯坦的主要盟友和投资者，奥巴马政府应该借着本周在华盛顿举行的中美战略与经济对话的机会拉拢中国，借助中国对巴基斯坦的影响力，修补美巴关系。

不过，文章指出，美国仍需要将北京与华盛顿在巴基斯坦所关注的长远利益相连接，这样才更有机会得到中国的帮助。首先，因为新疆和西藏地区与巴基斯坦和阿富汗接壤，中国政府关注如何防止伊斯兰恐怖主义份子从中亚地区进入中国的西部地区。中国正在这一地区积极发展天然气和石油储备，重建旧苏联时代的输油管道，以满足西部边境地区的发展。rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de+ r+ ]) u, k) T/ d) V

另外，中国希望促进该地区的持续发展，泛亚洲地区的繁荣和稳定有助中国在中期以至长期的经济稳定增长，而随着中国和印度城市化发展的步伐加快，粮食生产和供应将成为十分重要的问题。

文章认为，当把中国、美国和巴基斯坦所关心的问题放在一起时便可发现：中国需要巴基斯坦增加农业生产率，从而得到稳定的粮食供应；同时美国希望在巴基斯坦建立一个既繁荣又温和的经济和政治体系，这样不但可提供经济的机会，也不会对美国造成威胁；而巴基斯坦政府在努力发展经济的同时也希望局势可以稳定，不会如邻国阿富汗般动荡不安。文章建议，奥巴马政府可以以此为切入点，创造出一个“三赢”的局面。

最后文章指出，如果中国与美国这两个超级大国能够合作，双方理应达成预期的成果，但如果各自为政，将会招致失败。

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美国政府傻眼：巴总理正式表态永远站在中国一边$ G& P* o5 P/ Y, X1 A( x
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Dear China: Help Us Fix Pakistan MAY 9, 2011人在德国社区3 G1 j( }" F. v8 x

The world's two superpowers must work together to fix the world's most broken country. $ U, R$ r3 Z# j* j
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The war of words is officially on. The killing of Osama bin Laden has shone a harsh light on the fraught U.S.-Pakistan relationship.
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In Washington, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are angrily questioning how it's possible that Pakistan didn't know about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden as he hid for years under their noses in Abbottabad, a military garrison town. In Islamabad, Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani lashed out at the United States, calling it "disingenuous" to believe that Pakistan could have been "in cahoots" with al Qaeda. Whatever the case, the U.S. strategic calculus in South Asia is now in flux. What is Washington's best opportunity to use this watershed moment to restore stability to Pakistan? Partner with China. ; \# v: b1 i1 S5 `

Unfortunately, the debate on Capitol Hill has quickly fallen into two polarized and short-sighted camps. In the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings last week, both Democrats and Republicans used bin Laden's death to justify an accelerated withdrawal from Afghanistan. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), the ranking member on the committee, argued, "It's exceedingly difficult to conclude that our vast expenditures in Afghanistan represent a rational [strategy]." Other lawmakers have called for renewed pressure on Islamabad to take direct action against anti-U.S. militant bases in Pakistan, such as the Quetta Shura and the Haqqani network.rs238848.rs.hosteurope.de* A0 R+ x+ d/ D% a
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Neither path is likely to work. Abandoning Afghanistan for a third time since 1989 is not going to et us there -- indeed, each time the United States neglects the country, it gets worse. And strong-arm tactics won't work either: A gambit to withhold military or civilian assistance is also not going to force Islamabad to change its strategic calculus, which is rooted in decades of deep mistrust of the United States. Furthermore, because of continued U.S. dependence on Pakistani supply routes into Afghanistan and Pakistani intelligence services' ability to unleash terrorist devastation such as the 2008 Mumbai attacks, calling Pakistan's bluff could be disastrous.

It's time to return to the fundamentals when it comes to U.S. interests in Pakistan. Ultimately, Washington desires a prosperous, sustainable, and secure South Asian region that does not remain a base for al Qaeda and its affiliates, or a likely flashpoint for a nuclear exchange.
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Understood this way, U.S. interests are broadly shared by China, Pakistan's primary ally and a major investor in the country's economic success. That's a point President Barack Obama should drive home to Chinese officials this week, as Washington hosts the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Indeed, the late Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke made a similar case to the Chinese in Beijing.
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To date, China's relationship with Pakistan -- with which it has shared military technology and invested in major infrastructure projects -- has only enabled that South Asian nation's unstable status quo. When it comes to military hardware, China has shared ballistic missiles such as the short-range DF-11, is jointly producing the JF-17 advanced fighter with Pakistan, and has provided its ally with anti-ship cruise missiles, among other weapons. China also built the massive multimodal port in the southern city of Gwadar, along with a highway and rail link connecting it to China. Indeed, the relationship is so strong that, at the request of Beijing, the Pakistani military stormed Islamabad's Red Mosque in 2007 to liberate 10 Chinese nationals, a move that crystallized the Pakistani Taliban as an anti-government movement.
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Nevertheless, there are two important points of convergence between Beijing's long-term interests and Washington's. First, China is concerned with preventing Islamist terrorism from disrupting its Central Asian energy routes and its restive western region, Xinjiang, which borders Pakistan. China is actively securing natural gas and oil reserves as far as Turkmenistan on the Caspian, rebuilding the old Soviet-era pipelines to feed its western frontier and crossing territory that hosts a majority Muslim population.  {9 _1 T& U- r" f
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Secondly, China has a stake in promoting sustainable, pan-Asian prosperity in the medium-to-long term to fuel its torrid economic growth. China -- and neighboring India -- are undertaking a monumental frenzy of urbanization. A study prepared by McKinsey estimates that approximately 375 million Chinese and 250 million Indians will move from villages to cities over the next 20 years. This growth will require a substantial productivity increase across all economic sectors -- but along the China-India periphery, the question of whether this massive urbanization will be sustainable hinges on higher levels of food production.
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This is where Chinese, U.S., and Pakistani interests powerfully intersect. China needs a marked increase in Pakistani agricultural productivity, while America needs Pakistan to build a prosperous economy and a moderate political order that sees its neighbors to the northwest and east as economic opportunities -- rather than threats. Land reform is key to creating a win-win situation for all three countries.8 w6 I$ O( G8 v! u5 D; U2 V9 R- H

Farm productivity in Pakistan is stuck between 17 and 50 percent of its potential, according to research from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Improved agriculture requires better-educated farmers who own their own land and are incentivized to make use of sustainable methods that also boost their production. Even Cuba figured this one out.

Political moderation requires the rise of a phenomenon that does not yet exist in Pakistan -- a competent and legitimate political party with a reform mandate. Pakistan's patronage pyramids -- run by powerful family dynasties -- are today inseparable from the civilian political parties they control. They are equally responsible for the status quo: economic failure and the government's sheltering of Islamist militant groups, despite billions of dollars in U.S. foreign assistance. At the root of that corruption is Pakistan's system of semi-feudal land ownership, which, ironically, the Chinese Communist Party is more than happy to prop up.
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There is little time to waste: Commodity prices are nearing record highs, the fighting drags on in Afghanistan, and the people of Pakistan are hurting. In 2009, the year before the devastating monsoon floods that displaced some 20 million people, the United Nations judged that half of the Pakistani population was food insecure. Two-thirds of Pakistanis are living in rural areas and relying directly or indirectly on agriculture, with at least 24 percent of Pakistanis living on less than $2 a day.
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A green revolution in the Pakistani agricultural belt could forge an independent farming class in the countryside that could remake Pakistan both politically and economically. With a simultaneous effort to formalize property rights in urban areas, a moderate and stable middle-class would have the best chance to peacefully reassert the civilian government's full authority. In short, prosperity and self-reliance will lay the foundation for a government that is willing to embrace the Asian economic growth narrative and free itself of the need to bind the nation together using a narrative of perpetual external threats.) B6 ?! Q! e7 q. k: m8 b6 A
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But without deep reforms in Pakistan, China will not get what it needs out of its dysfunctional ally -- and neither Beijing nor Washington will be able to convince Islamabad to end its dangerous dalliance with South and Central Asian terrorist groups. Together, however, these two superpowers can succeed where, individually, each would fail.

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